Sunspot update: October activity drops almost to predicted levels
NOAA today posted its updated monthly graph tracking the number of sunspots on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere. As I do every month, I have posted this graph below, with several additional details to provide some larger context.
In October the sunspot count dropped so much from the activity in September that the total count was for the first time since the middle of 2021 actually very close to the predicted numbers first put forth by NOAA’s solar science panel in April 2020.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
The actual count, 99.4, was inside the 2020 prediction’s margin of error, from 62.1 to 113.5 (and indicated by the grey curve), and only slightly higher than the prediction of 88.3 (indicated by the red curve). This drop now however strongly suggests that we have reached solar maximum several years early, confirming what had been suggested by the activity levels earlier in the year.
NOAA’s science panel confirmed that conclusion with the announcement on October 25, 2023 of a new revised prediction for this solar maximum.
[S]olar activity will increase more quickly and peak at a higher level than that predicted by an expert panel in December 2019 [released in 2020]. The updated prediction now calls for Solar Cycle 25 to peak between January and October of 2024, with a maximum sunspot number between 137 and 173.
This revised prediction is more in line with the outlier prediction of a handful of dissenting solar scientists, who disagreed with the 2020 prediction of a weak maximum, and instead foretold the next maximum would be very high.
Those same dissenting scientists however pulled back from their own prediction in April 2023, saying the maximum would not be as powerful as they had originally predicted, but still more powerful than the prediction of the NOAA panel.
Do you see a pattern? To me, it appears that none of these scientists really have any idea what is going to happen. They throw darts at a wall, based on the limited data they have and what has happened in the past, but then as time passes they move closer and closer to the wall to make their revised predictions easier to get right, while also making believe their new guesses are more accurate.
Their problem is that they are making these predictions based solely on past behavior, not on any true understanding of the fundamental processes that cause the Sun’s sunspots.
Regardless, the main point remains: The Sun’s behavior during the last and this cycle have baffled scientists. It has not done what was expected, and the scientists really don’t know why.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
NOAA today posted its updated monthly graph tracking the number of sunspots on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere. As I do every month, I have posted this graph below, with several additional details to provide some larger context.
In October the sunspot count dropped so much from the activity in September that the total count was for the first time since the middle of 2021 actually very close to the predicted numbers first put forth by NOAA’s solar science panel in April 2020.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
The actual count, 99.4, was inside the 2020 prediction’s margin of error, from 62.1 to 113.5 (and indicated by the grey curve), and only slightly higher than the prediction of 88.3 (indicated by the red curve). This drop now however strongly suggests that we have reached solar maximum several years early, confirming what had been suggested by the activity levels earlier in the year.
NOAA’s science panel confirmed that conclusion with the announcement on October 25, 2023 of a new revised prediction for this solar maximum.
[S]olar activity will increase more quickly and peak at a higher level than that predicted by an expert panel in December 2019 [released in 2020]. The updated prediction now calls for Solar Cycle 25 to peak between January and October of 2024, with a maximum sunspot number between 137 and 173.
This revised prediction is more in line with the outlier prediction of a handful of dissenting solar scientists, who disagreed with the 2020 prediction of a weak maximum, and instead foretold the next maximum would be very high.
Those same dissenting scientists however pulled back from their own prediction in April 2023, saying the maximum would not be as powerful as they had originally predicted, but still more powerful than the prediction of the NOAA panel.
Do you see a pattern? To me, it appears that none of these scientists really have any idea what is going to happen. They throw darts at a wall, based on the limited data they have and what has happened in the past, but then as time passes they move closer and closer to the wall to make their revised predictions easier to get right, while also making believe their new guesses are more accurate.
Their problem is that they are making these predictions based solely on past behavior, not on any true understanding of the fundamental processes that cause the Sun’s sunspots.
Regardless, the main point remains: The Sun’s behavior during the last and this cycle have baffled scientists. It has not done what was expected, and the scientists really don’t know why.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
“They throw darts at a wall,”
If one goes on the assumption (which seems quite true) that things happen gradually, we could have predicted that this maximum would be slightly lower or higher than the previous one. Then, looking at how the sun ramped up, predicted a slightly stronger and earlier max.
Yup, there are no valid theories on sun spot activity mechanisms.
Mu biggest question at this point is; Will we get a double peaked maximum? Then; Will the second peak be greater than the first similar to the last cycle?
Nice to see the historical data where we see we are in a low point in maxima similar to the late 1800 to early 1900 and somewhat higher than the Dalton minimum.
Rumors of a premature reversing of sunspot polarity are set to rest. Current solar cycle continues.
https://www.arrl.org/news/reverse-polarity-sunspot-group-does-not-belong-to-cycle-25-observatory-says