Sunspot update: Solar activity continues to exceed sunspot predictions
It is the beginning of September and time to post another update on the Sun’s ongoing solar cycle. Below is NOAA’s monthly graph tracking the number of sunspots on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere, with the activity in August now added. I have also added some additional details to the graph to give the numbers a larger context.
Though sunspot activity dropped in August it remained significantly above the predictions of the panel of government solar scientists put together by NOAA. The predicted sunspot number for August, as indicated by the red curve, was supposed to be about 48. The actual number was 75.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
There were once again no blank days in August, so that the total of blank days in 2022 remains a just one.
The trend however in the past few months suggests the possibility that the ramp up to higher activity might have stalled. For most of ’21 and ’22, the number of sunspots had increased monthly at a steady and fast rate. Since May that rate of increase has stabilized.
This speculation however means little. The stall in the last four months could simply be a random fluctuation, to be followed in the next few months with a new ramp up of activity. Or not. When it comes to the Sun and our general lack of understanding as to why it has this eleven year solar cycle, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Nonetheless, the generally high numbers, well above the consensus prediction of the solar science community, still suggests the coming maximum will be very strong. If so, it will be very interesting to see how the Earth’s climate shifts under these conditions. Past strong maximums routinely aligned with warmer temperatures on Earth.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
It is the beginning of September and time to post another update on the Sun’s ongoing solar cycle. Below is NOAA’s monthly graph tracking the number of sunspots on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere, with the activity in August now added. I have also added some additional details to the graph to give the numbers a larger context.
Though sunspot activity dropped in August it remained significantly above the predictions of the panel of government solar scientists put together by NOAA. The predicted sunspot number for August, as indicated by the red curve, was supposed to be about 48. The actual number was 75.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
There were once again no blank days in August, so that the total of blank days in 2022 remains a just one.
The trend however in the past few months suggests the possibility that the ramp up to higher activity might have stalled. For most of ’21 and ’22, the number of sunspots had increased monthly at a steady and fast rate. Since May that rate of increase has stabilized.
This speculation however means little. The stall in the last four months could simply be a random fluctuation, to be followed in the next few months with a new ramp up of activity. Or not. When it comes to the Sun and our general lack of understanding as to why it has this eleven year solar cycle, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Nonetheless, the generally high numbers, well above the consensus prediction of the solar science community, still suggests the coming maximum will be very strong. If so, it will be very interesting to see how the Earth’s climate shifts under these conditions. Past strong maximums routinely aligned with warmer temperatures on Earth.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
“Past strong maximums routinely aligned with warmer temperatures on Earth”
Particularly when the 11 year flipping magnetic field of the sun, aligns it’s negative field to attract to earth‘s Northern positive magnetic pole, complementary polarity alters the earths magnetic field significantly.
The results as an augmented Heating and drought… Not necessarily as where people locally and around the world are receiving far too much rain in unusual amounts. On the other hand, 20 to 25 storms were predicted for hurricane season… Still not one named storm yet! First time that’s happened in 80 years?
Currently, there is a large Solar coronal hole pointed right at us. This is not unusual, just an opportunity if the sun decides to be active.
My older brother has been a licensed ham radio operator since he way 14.
We speak by phone several times a week. We both watch the space weather web sites and he tells me of his abilities to monitor radio broadcasts by frequency, thus current atmospheric conditions.
Things have been all over the place for several months.
He misses being able to hear certain stations that are part of his daily listening habits.
I could pass a ham exam tomorrow, but my time- committed interests lay elsewhere.
It’s good that aged brothers can relate in interesting ways.
Max:
Regarding the current season, not sure what you’re talking about. The Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico region has seen a total since of five systems. Three tropical systems have occurred prior to the last two days which have seen Hurricane Danielle and T.S. Earl form (Earl as of tonight’s 11PM EDT update is the new kid on the block).
The eastern Pacific is up to ten (counting the current Javier).
August in the A/C/G was the first August since 1997 to not see to see any named systems form. Very unusual indeed.
Regarding the seasonal forecasts put out by the National Hurricane Center and others, you are correct to observe storm formation lags somewhat behind what one would think. Obviously, we’ll see what the next two months bring as we approach the peak and immediate weeks following.
Correction – in the first sentence of the last paragraph, National Hurricane Center should have read Climate Prediction Center. Sorry for the brain fart.