Sunspot update: Sunspot activity continued its decline in January
Another month has passed, meaning it is time for another update on the Sun’s sunspot cycle, based on NOAA’s monthly graph tracking that activity but annotated by me with additional information.
In January the decline in sunspot activity on the hemisphere facing Earth since August 2024 continued, with the number of sunspots dropping to a level not seen since May 2023, when the Sun’s was ramping up from solar minimum to solar maximum.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
As I noted in last month’s update, the big question is whether this steady decline in sunspots signals the end of solar maximum and the beginning of the ramp down to solar minimum, or whether it is instead simply the low point in a double-peaked solar maximum, as occurred in the previous solar maximum.
No one knows. We won’t find out for at least one to two more years, since we can only watch and see what the Sun decides to do. Any predictions put forth by the solar scientist community will not be very reliable, and should not be taken very seriously.
Note too that this inability to make good predictions is illustrated by the failure of the solar scientist community to predict what has happened already during this solar maximum. The NOAA panel predicted a weak solar maximum, as indicated by the red curve. It was wrong. Another group of scientists predicted a very strong solar maximum, similar to the green curve prediction (also wrong) for the previous solar maximum. They were wrong too.
Until we can somehow untangle and understand the fundamental processes that cause these cycles, something we do not know as yet, every sunspot prediction is going to nothing more than a vaguely educated guess, really nothing more than throwing darts at a dart board.
And yet when these same scientists are asked about human-caused global warming, many tell us that “The science is settled!” and that we are destroying the climate and that we are all going to die in just a few years from rising sea levels and endless burning summers and no winters.
Readers!
Every February I run a fund-raising drive during my birthday month. This year I celebrate my 72nd birthday, and hope and plan to continue writing and posting on Behind the Black for as long as I am able.
I hope my readers will support this effort. As I did in my November fund-raising drive, I am offering autographed copies of my books for large donations. Donate $250 and you can have a choice of the hardback of either Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8 or Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space. Donate $200 and you can get an autographed paperback copy of either.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
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4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
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You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Another month has passed, meaning it is time for another update on the Sun’s sunspot cycle, based on NOAA’s monthly graph tracking that activity but annotated by me with additional information.
In January the decline in sunspot activity on the hemisphere facing Earth since August 2024 continued, with the number of sunspots dropping to a level not seen since May 2023, when the Sun’s was ramping up from solar minimum to solar maximum.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
As I noted in last month’s update, the big question is whether this steady decline in sunspots signals the end of solar maximum and the beginning of the ramp down to solar minimum, or whether it is instead simply the low point in a double-peaked solar maximum, as occurred in the previous solar maximum.
No one knows. We won’t find out for at least one to two more years, since we can only watch and see what the Sun decides to do. Any predictions put forth by the solar scientist community will not be very reliable, and should not be taken very seriously.
Note too that this inability to make good predictions is illustrated by the failure of the solar scientist community to predict what has happened already during this solar maximum. The NOAA panel predicted a weak solar maximum, as indicated by the red curve. It was wrong. Another group of scientists predicted a very strong solar maximum, similar to the green curve prediction (also wrong) for the previous solar maximum. They were wrong too.
Until we can somehow untangle and understand the fundamental processes that cause these cycles, something we do not know as yet, every sunspot prediction is going to nothing more than a vaguely educated guess, really nothing more than throwing darts at a dart board.
And yet when these same scientists are asked about human-caused global warming, many tell us that “The science is settled!” and that we are destroying the climate and that we are all going to die in just a few years from rising sea levels and endless burning summers and no winters.
Readers!
Every February I run a fund-raising drive during my birthday month. This year I celebrate my 72nd birthday, and hope and plan to continue writing and posting on Behind the Black for as long as I am able.
I hope my readers will support this effort. As I did in my November fund-raising drive, I am offering autographed copies of my books for large donations. Donate $250 and you can have a choice of the hardback of either Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8 or Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space. Donate $200 and you can get an autographed paperback copy of either.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Interestingly, spaceweather.com was indicating an abundance of stratospheric clouds in the arctic, indicating a cold snap not seen for some 40-5o years.
If we are at or near solar max, it is a weaker one compared to those seen around 1950, after which, the rate of recession of the Athabasca glacier reduced. It is noted that the 60′ deep crevasses we practiced rescue (1973) are now gone down to rock.