Sunspot update: Sunspot activity continued its decline in January
Another month has passed, meaning it is time for another update on the Sun’s sunspot cycle, based on NOAA’s monthly graph tracking that activity but annotated by me with additional information.
In January the decline in sunspot activity on the hemisphere facing Earth since August 2024 continued, with the number of sunspots dropping to a level not seen since May 2023, when the Sun’s was ramping up from solar minimum to solar maximum.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
As I noted in last month’s update, the big question is whether this steady decline in sunspots signals the end of solar maximum and the beginning of the ramp down to solar minimum, or whether it is instead simply the low point in a double-peaked solar maximum, as occurred in the previous solar maximum.
No one knows. We won’t find out for at least one to two more years, since we can only watch and see what the Sun decides to do. Any predictions put forth by the solar scientist community will not be very reliable, and should not be taken very seriously.
Note too that this inability to make good predictions is illustrated by the failure of the solar scientist community to predict what has happened already during this solar maximum. The NOAA panel predicted a weak solar maximum, as indicated by the red curve. It was wrong. Another group of scientists predicted a very strong solar maximum, similar to the green curve prediction (also wrong) for the previous solar maximum. They were wrong too.
Until we can somehow untangle and understand the fundamental processes that cause these cycles, something we do not know as yet, every sunspot prediction is going to nothing more than a vaguely educated guess, really nothing more than throwing darts at a dart board.
And yet when these same scientists are asked about human-caused global warming, many tell us that “The science is settled!” and that we are destroying the climate and that we are all going to die in just a few years from rising sea levels and endless burning summers and no winters.
Readers!
My annual February birthday fund-raising drive for Behind the Black is now over. Thank you to everyone who donated or subscribed. While not a record-setter, the donations were more than sufficient and slightly above average.
As I have said many times before, I can’t express what it means to me to get such support, especially as no one is required to pay anything to read my work. Thank you all again!
For those readers who like my work here at Behind the Black and haven't contributed so far, please consider donating or subscribing. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Another month has passed, meaning it is time for another update on the Sun’s sunspot cycle, based on NOAA’s monthly graph tracking that activity but annotated by me with additional information.
In January the decline in sunspot activity on the hemisphere facing Earth since August 2024 continued, with the number of sunspots dropping to a level not seen since May 2023, when the Sun’s was ramping up from solar minimum to solar maximum.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
As I noted in last month’s update, the big question is whether this steady decline in sunspots signals the end of solar maximum and the beginning of the ramp down to solar minimum, or whether it is instead simply the low point in a double-peaked solar maximum, as occurred in the previous solar maximum.
No one knows. We won’t find out for at least one to two more years, since we can only watch and see what the Sun decides to do. Any predictions put forth by the solar scientist community will not be very reliable, and should not be taken very seriously.
Note too that this inability to make good predictions is illustrated by the failure of the solar scientist community to predict what has happened already during this solar maximum. The NOAA panel predicted a weak solar maximum, as indicated by the red curve. It was wrong. Another group of scientists predicted a very strong solar maximum, similar to the green curve prediction (also wrong) for the previous solar maximum. They were wrong too.
Until we can somehow untangle and understand the fundamental processes that cause these cycles, something we do not know as yet, every sunspot prediction is going to nothing more than a vaguely educated guess, really nothing more than throwing darts at a dart board.
And yet when these same scientists are asked about human-caused global warming, many tell us that “The science is settled!” and that we are destroying the climate and that we are all going to die in just a few years from rising sea levels and endless burning summers and no winters.
Readers!
My annual February birthday fund-raising drive for Behind the Black is now over. Thank you to everyone who donated or subscribed. While not a record-setter, the donations were more than sufficient and slightly above average.
As I have said many times before, I can’t express what it means to me to get such support, especially as no one is required to pay anything to read my work. Thank you all again!
For those readers who like my work here at Behind the Black and haven't contributed so far, please consider donating or subscribing. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Interestingly, spaceweather.com was indicating an abundance of stratospheric clouds in the arctic, indicating a cold snap not seen for some 40-5o years.
If we are at or near solar max, it is a weaker one compared to those seen around 1950, after which, the rate of recession of the Athabasca glacier reduced. It is noted that the 60′ deep crevasses we practiced rescue (1973) are now gone down to rock.
I highly doubt that we can influence sunspots and that the sun will do what it has always done – what it does! We should be thankful for that giant ball of fire in the sky!! There’s no way to accurately predict what the sun is GOING to do, but some emphasis should be on what it DID and how that impacted our weather. I think it’s as simple as MORE SUNSPOT activity = HIGHER TEMPS! I’ve told people that the sun is like one of those radiant heaters – turn up the knob and it gets warmer! AND, you can test it yourself by standing in the full sun and then stepping into the shade – the SUN has a direct effect! BUT, there’s no money to be made in COMMON SENSE!
Robert wrote: “And yet when these same scientists are asked about human-caused global warming, many tell us that “The science is settled!” and that we are destroying the climate and that we are all going to die in just a few years from rising sea levels and endless burning summers and no winters.”
I wouldn’t say that solar scientists are the same as the climate scientists. The climate scientists have discounted any effects from solar activity and focus largely upon the CO2 emissions from human activity, claiming that all increases in CO2 are from human activity despite our burning forests and towns.
The solar astrophysicists are not willing to say that their science is settled, because their science obviously is no where near being settled, and as we saw from the previous solar cycle, there is not a consensus among solar astrophysicists. Since these scientists patiently study the sun decade after decade, they clearly do not think we are going to die in just a few years.
By the way, Greta Thunberg thinks we have five years left, U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez says that the world ends as 2032 begins, but California does not plan on starting its defense against global climate warming change until 2035. According to Al Gore, the world should end in 2000, but he gave us eight more years in 2006. In 1978, Leonard Nemoy was in search of the coming ice age, and even Prince Charles once warned us that we had only 500 days to stop the end of all life on earth (which still hasn’t happened, even now that he is king, with the governmental power to make it happen).
However, solar astrophysicists don’t seem to have such gloomy outlooks for our future.
Great comments Edward
More on glacier retreat.
Saw a video where a glacier emptying into the Antarctic ocean retreated much since the 1950 change.
However, it should be noted that anything emptying into an ocean has, historically, broken of at irregular intervals and is not a good indicator of a change in climate.
The Athabasca (and the Saskatchewan) glaciers are a much better indicator. We do not have as much data on the Saskatchewan glacier and I have not personally been on that one, but reports are that its retreat is similar to that of the Athabasca.