Comments on: Sunspot update: Sunspot activity continues to exceed predictions

By: Etaoin Shrdlu

Etaoin Shrdlu — Thu, 13 May 2021 10:58:36 +0000

Well that’s a bummer. She’s still totally hawt, tho.

By: Robert Zimmerman

Robert Zimmerman — Tue, 04 May 2021 22:32:02 +0000

In reply to Krusty1234. Krusty1235: Zharkova's work is presently turning out to be wrong. She predicted we would be entering a grand minimum, with no sunspots at all. This is not happening.

By: Krusty1234

Krusty1234 — Tue, 04 May 2021 22:06:37 +0000

Do your predictions correlate with Zharkova’s recent work?

By: BSinSC

BSinSC — Tue, 04 May 2021 13:47:59 +0000

There’s a somewhat similarity from 2020 to 2010. Could it be that the sun has a ten year “cycle” of high/low activity? Looking at the Centuries graph you can see it there. I’m no statistician or good guesser, but there seems to be a pattern that shows no FIRM pattern but a definite ranges of ups and downs. Heading into the 21st Century there were three UPS and now two Downs. That last showed during the mid 1800’s. I have no idea what the weather was like back then, but it might be worth looking at to compare temps and storms. Or it might be nothing other than just something else to “think” about! I really enjoy this site and the range of topics covered in a no nonsense way. Thank you for this! I do use your sunspot activity to TRY to educate others!

By: Alex Andrite

Alex Andrite — Mon, 03 May 2021 14:39:15 +0000

… silly dynamo ….

Love it !

By: Phill O

Phill O — Mon, 03 May 2021 13:57:13 +0000

Thanks again Bob for the review.

As have mentioned before, these changes will tend to be gradual so not much chance of a plummet to low activity or early climax; but then, as stated, we no so little of the underlying causes of the dynamo shifts.

By: Jester Naybor

Jester Naybor — Mon, 03 May 2021 11:15:35 +0000

Furthermore, my extrapolation above must be taken with a gigantic grain of salt. There is no guarantee activity will continue at this pace. It is just as likely that the Sun’s activity will ease in the coming year and begin to match the prediction. Or go up to further exceed it. Because we really don’t know why the activity fluctuates, we can’t make any meaningful predictions about what it will do next.

An example of honest, science-based extrapolation – as opposed to the goalpost-moving extrapolations of activists out to keep their gigs going.