Sunspot update: Sunspot activity remains high but stable
The uncertainty of science Time for my monthly update on our Sun’s sunspot cycle, based on NOAA’s monthly graph of the sunspot activity on the Earth-facing hemisphere of the Sun, but annotated by me with additional information.
The graph below shows that the number of sunspots in February continued the trend during this solar maximum of being significantly higher than the consensus prediction by a panel of NOAA solar scientists, as indicated by the red curve. At the same time, the count in February was well below the high point during the summer of 2024. Instead, though it went up slightly in February it remains at about the same level we have seen since September.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
Based on the relative lack of decline in the sunspot count in the past six months, it seems that we are not yet in the ramp down to solar minimum, but instead appear to be in a saddle during a double-peaked solar maximum. If this is so, sometime in the next six months we should see a burst of new sunspots that lasts a month or two, after which the sunspot count should begin its ramp down to minimum.
That is still a guess, as the Sun will do what the Sun wants. It however is as good a guess as most of the solar science community, which hasn’t gotten a prediction right now for two solar cycles in a row. As I have noted now almost every month, no one understands the fundamental processes that cause this sunspot cycle, so to predict what will happen next is largely a guess, no more accurate than a near-sighted person without glasses throwing darts at a dartboard.
Sadly, this is the state of much climate science, which must include the Sun’s activity to be accurate. There are uncertainties everywhere, most of which the scientists purposely leave out when discussing their conclusions. Rather than admit their ignorance — the sign of a good scientist — climate scientists tend to hide it to make themselves appear all-knowing.
I say: Take a good look at the guy behind the curtain. He is nothing more than the Wizard of Oz.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
The uncertainty of science Time for my monthly update on our Sun’s sunspot cycle, based on NOAA’s monthly graph of the sunspot activity on the Earth-facing hemisphere of the Sun, but annotated by me with additional information.
The graph below shows that the number of sunspots in February continued the trend during this solar maximum of being significantly higher than the consensus prediction by a panel of NOAA solar scientists, as indicated by the red curve. At the same time, the count in February was well below the high point during the summer of 2024. Instead, though it went up slightly in February it remains at about the same level we have seen since September.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
Based on the relative lack of decline in the sunspot count in the past six months, it seems that we are not yet in the ramp down to solar minimum, but instead appear to be in a saddle during a double-peaked solar maximum. If this is so, sometime in the next six months we should see a burst of new sunspots that lasts a month or two, after which the sunspot count should begin its ramp down to minimum.
That is still a guess, as the Sun will do what the Sun wants. It however is as good a guess as most of the solar science community, which hasn’t gotten a prediction right now for two solar cycles in a row. As I have noted now almost every month, no one understands the fundamental processes that cause this sunspot cycle, so to predict what will happen next is largely a guess, no more accurate than a near-sighted person without glasses throwing darts at a dartboard.
Sadly, this is the state of much climate science, which must include the Sun’s activity to be accurate. There are uncertainties everywhere, most of which the scientists purposely leave out when discussing their conclusions. Rather than admit their ignorance — the sign of a good scientist — climate scientists tend to hide it to make themselves appear all-knowing.
I say: Take a good look at the guy behind the curtain. He is nothing more than the Wizard of Oz.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
The next six months will be quite interesting!
Your guesses have been pretty accurate so far. Could be because you add a significant error to the guesses.