We’ll just have to wait and see I guess. March and April might prove to be bellwethers. If SpaceX can average 15 launches a month, it will hit 180 for the year. It’s done 15 or more launches in several past months, just not consistently.

With only 2 pads and only 3 ASDS ships, I assume that they are not going to improve on last year’s total. But I think Geoffrey may be right that SpaceX is OK with that. The focus really does seem to be on getting Starship into operation from both states. The extra 30-40 launches they might get out of LC-39A don’t seem to be worth the disruption to Starship pad construction.

Good points all. You are correct that OCISLY, the only ASDS in SpaceX’s Pacific Fleet, bases out of the Port of Los Angeles/Long Beach which is 150 miles from Vandenberg SFB. OCISLY is deployed off Baja California for most missions launched from Vandy so it does have a shorter trip to and from port than JRTI and ASOG in the Atlantic. The returned boosters are just loaded onto trucks and sent the rest of the way back to Vandy by road.

I’m not aware of any goal for total Falcon launches in 2026 having been stated by SpaceX so you might be right that a rough match to last year’s total will be sufficient to SpaceX’s plans. Personally, I expect SpaceX to undertake even more F9 missions this year with as many of them as possible being Starlink deployments. It’s likely to still be at least another year before Starship can shoulder even half of the Starlink deployment load so I expect SpaceX to fly as many Falcon 9s as it can because it is also getting more and more 2nd-party payload launch work too. Amazon Leo just bought 10 more F9 deployment missions and may return to the Falcon 9 well yet again now that the Space Force has effectively de-certified Vulcan until its strap-on booster woes are remedied. I don’t see Amazon Leo wanting to fly any 6-SRB versions of Vulcan so long as the SRBs are iffy.

They seem to have pad turn around solved and down to 45 hours or so. But they need an ASDS on station for the next launch. Using only one pad means they get use of both barges. Also uses Bahamian waters means closer recoveries.

What is interesting (I do not really know Cali geography) is that for the West Coast, the ASDS docks somewhere south of the base, and does not get towed all the way back, saving out and back time, allowing faster launches with a single ASDS.

If they were serious about getting the launch rate above 160 in a large way, they would bring in yet another ASDS to Florida. I think that they have not signals they are probably ok around this rate till Starship takes over.

Fair point. If SpaceX succeeds in launching the Starlink mission currently scheduled for Feb. 27 either that day or the next, it will have launched 25 times in the first two months of 2026. It also launched 25 times in the first two months of 2025, but six of those launches were from LC-39A. So there has been a notable increase in cadence from both SLC-4E at Vandy and SLC-40 at the Cape. 25 launches in the first two months of the year is an annualized rate of 150 – less than the 165 SpaceX actually managed last year. But cadence has tended to increase as the year wears on. If SpaceX manages to launch 17 times in March it will have upped its annualized rate to 168, a bit above last year’s record. SpaceX could still achieve a modest bump of its annualized rate to 152 even it manages only as few as 13 launches in March.

Another interesting year in Falcon launches is shaping up. And, whatever the 2026 F9 mission total turns out to be, LC-39A, unlike last year, is slated to add a few FH launches to the pile as well.