Update on SpaceX’s Starship/Superheavy assembly line at Boca Chica
Screen capture from animation showing two Starships
about to dock for refueling. Click for original video.
Link here.
The article outlines the approximate status of four Starships (prototypes 42 through 45) and one Superheavy (prototype 22), and links them to test flight numbers 15 through 18. This list does not include the Starship and Superheavy now being prepared for flight 14, which is targeting a launch before the end of August.
The bottom line: It appears SpaceX is pushing to complete as many four or even five more launches before the end of 2026, though the more likely number will be around three. I suspect the company hopes that after flight 14 in August demonstrates orbital operations and a recovery of Starship, it will follow with the two Starship mission it first described a year ago, with one Starship launched for at least two weeks, followed by a second which will rendezvous and dock with the first to test refueling in orbit.
Whether the company will launch using new or reused Superheavies is not clear. For these missions in 2026 however expect each one to fly a new Starship. Starship reuse is more likely to begin in 2027.
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Missing link next to “Link here”?
Whoops. Forgot to add it. Now fixed!
Thank you.
No V3 Superheavy boosters yet to reuse. I think B21 will be another ocean landing since the previous two attempts have failed. If Flight 14’s booster works correctly, SpaceX may try to capture B22.
As to the on-orbit refueling demonstration, I think SpaceX will need 2 operational launch towers to accomplish that. I don’t know the progress on the two launch towers in Florida nor Launch Tower 1 in Boca Chica.
Looking at the pad progress photos and extrapolating, I’d say they have a real shot at being ready to launch from 39A before the year is out. BC Pad 1 (the original) is not as far along as 39A. And a recent photo of 37A would lead one to think it’s quite a ways off yet.
But you can imagine three operational pads in the next 6 months or so. Not a bad start!
I think it’s pretty much a slam-dunk that the LC-39A Starship pad will be ready well before year’s-end, But Starbase Pad 1 won’t be far behind. To launch from LC-39A this year, SpaceX would need to transport both a Super Heavy and a Starship to Florida from Starbase. The schedule for that is unclear at present.
Mr. Z’s notion that flights 15 and 16 will be the two-launch propellant transfer demo is certainly plausible but isn’t the only way things might go. Starship reuse needs to be demonstrated as soon as possible as well because, even after a single propellant transfer demo, many such missions will be needed to enable both an unmanned HLS Starship demo run to the Moon and the Artemis 4 mission there with crew. So flight 15 might well be another Starlink V3 deployment mission – hopefully with a larger payload than the three sats planned for flight 14 – and a second ship catch as well as the first V3 booster catch. Flight 16 could then be a third Starlink V3 deployment featuring reflight of Ship 41 from flight 14 and a reflight of Booster 22 from flight 15. All of this would allow a Super Heavy and a Starship tanker prototype to be barged to Florida for use – from the LC-39A Starship pad – as part of the first propellant transfer demo mission late this year or early next year. The prototype depot ship for this prop transfer test could be launched from Starbase. With reusability of Starships already demonstrated at Starbase, this scenario would allow the now nearly complete Florida Gigabay to be used for whatever refurb is needed between Super Heavy and Starship reflights. The tanker prototype in Florida, and its booster, could be kept as busy as possible doing additional prop transfer runs to the depot from the LC-39A Starship pad while the Starbase pads handle additional Starlink V3 deployment missions as well as launch of the HLS stand-in vehicle to be used as part of Artemis 3.
This may not be the way things actually go – I have zero insider info about future SpaceX Starship ops plans – but it seems as least as plausible as Mr. Z’s notion and would also support the one-per-month Starship mission cadence Shotwell has stated to be SpaceX’s goal for Starship ops during the remainder of 2026.
There is some speculation in the podcast world that they are thinking about catching Booster 41, which would be a surprise. Rationale is that you can’t turn Tower 2 in an hour to catch Booster 21 and Ship 41. Solution would be to orbit Ship 41 for a while and demonstrate cross range capability for reentry.
For me, the surprise would be to catch B21 without a controlled water landing. Still, any aggressive attempt out of SpaceX these days tells me more about that they think they know about the failure mode than anything else. Should be a fun fall. Cheers –
Booster 21. Apologies –
At least an attempt at catching booster 21 would be a nice extra for flight 14. Any problems with the landing burn and Booster 21 could still be diverted to a water landing not far offshore. If the catch can be made, that gives SpaceX a head start on proving out whole V3 stack reuse. Ship 41 will spend some significant time on orbit in any case as it’s my understanding that the orbital mechanics involved don’t really allow for a Ship to return to Starbase after just a single orbit.
Depends on cross-range ability, which is currently unknown. Also scratching my head about where does the orbit pass 12 hours out. I do lots of things poorly. Sadly, orbital mechanics are at least 3 of them. Cheers –
agimarc,
On a launch directly to the east, the cross range capability does not need to be large, on the first orbit. Starship won’t pass directly overhead, due to the Earth’s rotation, but it will pass three-hundred-ish miles to the south, which is the cross range requirement to return on the first orbit. However, Starship is being launched in a more southerly direction, so more cross range capability is needed on the first orbit.
Twelve hours after launch, an eastern-launched orbit would be in the Southern Hemisphere. Way too much cross range to cover.
With a launch toward the south (or north, for that matter), Starship travels farther north (higher latitude), which means that it crosses the launch pad latitude twice, giving two opportunities to land each day — one approaching from the north and one approaching from the south.
Don’t worry about doing orbital mechanics poorly. It is counterintuitive and requires high level mathematics. Rendezvous into a different orbital plane uses three-dimensional partial differential equations (or as I call them: “difficult equations”), and you have to be careful with the boundary conditions. The class that I took required that we understand and do the math. I have no idea how I passed.