Water on the Moon? New data analysis from two different lunar orbiters say yes
Two papers in the past month using data from two different lunar orbiters have claimed the presence of water on Moon, based on the detection of evidence of hydrogen on the surface.
First, on September 16, 2024 scientists published a paper [pdf] that analyzed data collected in 2009 by India’s Chandrayaan-1 lunar orbiter, and concluded, as stated enthusiastically in the press release:
From the second paper, a map of permanently shadowed
regions at the Moon’s south pole. Click for original.
“Future astronauts may be able to find water even near the equator by exploiting these water-rich areas. Previously, it was thought that only the polar region, and in particular, the deeply shadowed craters at the poles were where water could be found in abundance,” said Roger Clark, Senior Scientist at the Planetary Science Institute and lead author of “The Global Distribution of Water and Hydroxyl on the Moon as Seen by the Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M3)” that appears in the Planetary Science Journal. “Knowing where water is located not only helps to understand lunar geologic history, but also where astronauts may find water in the future.”
Then today NASA announced the publication of a new paper [pdf] that looked at the data collected over the last decade by Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), and have concluded that “hydrogen-bearing volatiles are observed to be concentrated, likely in the form of water ice, within most of the Moon’s permanently shadowed regions (PSRs), poleward of 77°.” The press release, which included the map to the right of permanently shadowed areas at the Moon’s south pole, was more enthusiastic:
“We can’t accurately determine the volume of the PSRs’ ice deposits or identify if they might be buried under a dry layer of regolith. However, we expect that for each surface 1.2 square yards (square meter) residing over these deposits there should be at least about five more quarts (five more liters) of ice within the surface top 3.3 feet (meter), as compared to their surrounding areas,” said [Timothy McClanahan,]] the lead author of a paper. The study also mapped where fewer, smaller, or lower-concentration ice deposits would be expected, occurring primarily towards warmer, periodically illuminated areas.
In both cases, the press releases claim the presence of ice, when the data actually detected evidence only of the presence of hydrogen. From this the scientists assume that hydrogen must be locked in a molecule to be there, and they have chosen water as the most likely candidate. (The second paper even invents a term for this, dubbing the hydrogen as “water-equivalent hydrogen (WEH),” essentially assuming that the detections are water.) Moreover, in both cases even if that hydrogen was locked in a water molecule, that ice is believed to be impregnated within the regolith, requiring processing to extract.
And finally, the amount of water present is far less than these papers want us to believe. As one scientist recently emailed me when I asked him to comment on the first paper above, he said this:
If you went out into the parking lot and picked up any rock, it will likely have at least a factor of 3 or 4 more water than is likely present in the “wettest” locations on the Moon. So … even though we are finding out that the Moon has more volatiles than was thought during the Apollo program, it is still *very* dry. [emphasis in original]
Thus, to claim the discovery of easily accessible of ice on the Moon is a bit of an overstatement. There may be useful water in these locations, but I suspect we will eventually find that it is less than expected and difficult to extract.
What this research is really telling us is that the solar system is very complex environmentally. It can over long time scales deposit hydrogen — likely by comets and the solar wind — in places you would not expect, and that hydrogen interacts geologically so that it does not sublimiate away. That interaction might result in water ice, but it still remains to be proven if this is so. So far we only have one data point, the LCROSS detections of water ice ejected from Cabeus crater after an impact.
The support of my readers through the years has given me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Four years ago, just before the 2020 election I wrote that Joe Biden's mental health was suspect. Only in this year has the propaganda mainstream media decided to recognize that basic fact.
Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Even today NASA and Congress refuses to recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
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Two papers in the past month using data from two different lunar orbiters have claimed the presence of water on Moon, based on the detection of evidence of hydrogen on the surface.
First, on September 16, 2024 scientists published a paper [pdf] that analyzed data collected in 2009 by India’s Chandrayaan-1 lunar orbiter, and concluded, as stated enthusiastically in the press release:
From the second paper, a map of permanently shadowed
regions at the Moon’s south pole. Click for original.
“Future astronauts may be able to find water even near the equator by exploiting these water-rich areas. Previously, it was thought that only the polar region, and in particular, the deeply shadowed craters at the poles were where water could be found in abundance,” said Roger Clark, Senior Scientist at the Planetary Science Institute and lead author of “The Global Distribution of Water and Hydroxyl on the Moon as Seen by the Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M3)” that appears in the Planetary Science Journal. “Knowing where water is located not only helps to understand lunar geologic history, but also where astronauts may find water in the future.”
Then today NASA announced the publication of a new paper [pdf] that looked at the data collected over the last decade by Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), and have concluded that “hydrogen-bearing volatiles are observed to be concentrated, likely in the form of water ice, within most of the Moon’s permanently shadowed regions (PSRs), poleward of 77°.” The press release, which included the map to the right of permanently shadowed areas at the Moon’s south pole, was more enthusiastic:
“We can’t accurately determine the volume of the PSRs’ ice deposits or identify if they might be buried under a dry layer of regolith. However, we expect that for each surface 1.2 square yards (square meter) residing over these deposits there should be at least about five more quarts (five more liters) of ice within the surface top 3.3 feet (meter), as compared to their surrounding areas,” said [Timothy McClanahan,]] the lead author of a paper. The study also mapped where fewer, smaller, or lower-concentration ice deposits would be expected, occurring primarily towards warmer, periodically illuminated areas.
In both cases, the press releases claim the presence of ice, when the data actually detected evidence only of the presence of hydrogen. From this the scientists assume that hydrogen must be locked in a molecule to be there, and they have chosen water as the most likely candidate. (The second paper even invents a term for this, dubbing the hydrogen as “water-equivalent hydrogen (WEH),” essentially assuming that the detections are water.) Moreover, in both cases even if that hydrogen was locked in a water molecule, that ice is believed to be impregnated within the regolith, requiring processing to extract.
And finally, the amount of water present is far less than these papers want us to believe. As one scientist recently emailed me when I asked him to comment on the first paper above, he said this:
If you went out into the parking lot and picked up any rock, it will likely have at least a factor of 3 or 4 more water than is likely present in the “wettest” locations on the Moon. So … even though we are finding out that the Moon has more volatiles than was thought during the Apollo program, it is still *very* dry. [emphasis in original]
Thus, to claim the discovery of easily accessible of ice on the Moon is a bit of an overstatement. There may be useful water in these locations, but I suspect we will eventually find that it is less than expected and difficult to extract.
What this research is really telling us is that the solar system is very complex environmentally. It can over long time scales deposit hydrogen — likely by comets and the solar wind — in places you would not expect, and that hydrogen interacts geologically so that it does not sublimiate away. That interaction might result in water ice, but it still remains to be proven if this is so. So far we only have one data point, the LCROSS detections of water ice ejected from Cabeus crater after an impact.
The support of my readers through the years has given me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Four years ago, just before the 2020 election I wrote that Joe Biden's mental health was suspect. Only in this year has the propaganda mainstream media decided to recognize that basic fact.
Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Even today NASA and Congress refuses to recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are five ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation:
5. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above. And if you buy the books through the ebookit links, I get a larger cut and I get it sooner.
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