SpaceX blasts FAA for claiming falling satellites could by 2035 kill someone every two years
In a letter response to an FAA report to Congress issued last week, SpaceX has strongly criticized the FAA for claiming falling satellites from the many big constellations being launched now could by 2035 kill someone every two years.
The FAA’s report actually claimed that some of the risk of death from these satellites would come from space junk impacting airplanes. From the report:
“Some debris fragments would also be a hazard to people in aircraft. Projecting 2019 global air traffic to 2035 and assuming that a fragment that would injure or kill a person on the ground also would be capable of fatally damaging an aircraft, the probability of an aircraft downing accident (defined in the Aerospace report as a collision with an aircraft downing object) in 2035 would be 0.0007 per year.”
As SpaceX’s response correctly notes, this claim of a threat is absurd. Not only do the satellites from these constellations always burn up in the atmosphere — making the risk zero — the chances of a collusion that the FAA claims are still so infinitesimal they should not have been considered worth mentioning. SpaceX also noted that the FAA’s analysis was based on obsolete Iridium satellites from the 1990s that are no longer being launched, not the kind of satellites and the preventive actions modern satellite companies take in flying them.
It appears this report is just another example of the full court press of the administrative state against not just SpaceX but all of private enterprise. By exaggerating the risk of space debris, the FAA is trying to justify more regulation and restrictions in an effort to garner more power to itself at the expense of freedom.
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In a letter response to an FAA report to Congress issued last week, SpaceX has strongly criticized the FAA for claiming falling satellites from the many big constellations being launched now could by 2035 kill someone every two years.
The FAA’s report actually claimed that some of the risk of death from these satellites would come from space junk impacting airplanes. From the report:
“Some debris fragments would also be a hazard to people in aircraft. Projecting 2019 global air traffic to 2035 and assuming that a fragment that would injure or kill a person on the ground also would be capable of fatally damaging an aircraft, the probability of an aircraft downing accident (defined in the Aerospace report as a collision with an aircraft downing object) in 2035 would be 0.0007 per year.”
As SpaceX’s response correctly notes, this claim of a threat is absurd. Not only do the satellites from these constellations always burn up in the atmosphere — making the risk zero — the chances of a collusion that the FAA claims are still so infinitesimal they should not have been considered worth mentioning. SpaceX also noted that the FAA’s analysis was based on obsolete Iridium satellites from the 1990s that are no longer being launched, not the kind of satellites and the preventive actions modern satellite companies take in flying them.
It appears this report is just another example of the full court press of the administrative state against not just SpaceX but all of private enterprise. By exaggerating the risk of space debris, the FAA is trying to justify more regulation and restrictions in an effort to garner more power to itself at the expense of freedom.
The support of my readers through the years has given me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Four years ago, just before the 2020 election I wrote that Joe Biden's mental health was suspect. Only in this year has the propaganda mainstream media decided to recognize that basic fact.
Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Even today NASA and Congress refuse to recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are five ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation:
5. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above. And if you buy the books through the ebookit links, I get a larger cut and I get it sooner.
More shading of the truth and outright lies in favor of a political agenda by the Bidumbs
“ space junk impacting airplanes “
Silly
Its just proof that they place idiots in charge of these organizations.
Do they even realize that over 2000 meteorites impact the Earth every year and we know of less than a few people who have been injured by them.
Are they claiming that the satellites will be falling more frequently than asteroids?
My numbers are more than likely a little off but they are still idiots.
uh, does the report include reports of China’s rocket parts landing in the Philippines? Or are they just aiming at destroying Musk?
The claims of upper stage weight was also exaggerated.
From the article:
So, yes, Nancy Reyes. It does not include China’s contribution to falling debris, and it does seem to focus primarily on the kinds of satellites that SpaceX operates. Government officials seem eager, these days, to pile on the attacks, where Elon Musk is concerned. It does not seem to matter that SpaceX’s satellites are to fall to earth in the usual places in the Pacific Ocean (fall to water?). The implication is that Musk is launching “death satellites” that will kill half a person a year, and may knock down various airplanes, every few years.
I would not be surprised if someone were to blame Musk for the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. Obviously, it wasn’t a black hole, but it could have been a deadly Musk satellite, or maybe a Falcon second stage, since Starlink wasn’t flying back then.
Well, if this report is true, then FAA/F&W are also responsible for any Falcon upper stage debris strikes by delaying fully reusable Starship/SuperHeavy development.
Chomper could clean up debris—therefore it is FAA/F&W that are responsible for any debris deaths.
The meteor has got to be more dangerous due to the wide shock wave from the large air burst type. Here is a skydiver that filmed a meteor passing by at low altitude https://youtu.be/gzYJaQ0h4Dg?feature=shared
If administrative rule making by the CDC is any guide here, then regulators can regulate down to 1 estimated death per decade. They love using false science method like studies of studies.