Category: Behind The Black

Blue Origin provides update on pad repair and New Glenn explosion investigation

8:51 am

New Glenn explosion
New Glenn exploding on May 28th.

The CEO of Blue Origin, David Limp, yesterday posted an update on the company’s effort to get its New Glenn rocket back flying after the May 28, 2026 launchpad explosion, promising once again that they will resume launches before the end of 2026.

Most of his update described the work the company is doing cleaning up and rebuilding the launchpad. For one thing, they are taking advantage of the explosion by going directly to an upgrade whereby they no longer stack New Glenn entirely horizontally. Instead, some stacking will be horizon, and some vertical. This change is to simplify operations and make the pad compatible for the present New Glenn — with its configuration of seven first stage engines and two upper stage engines (7×2) — and the more powerful 8×4 version, with eight first stage engines and four upper stage engines.

As for the investigation into the explosion itself, Limp was much more vague:

We continue to actively investigate the cause of the anomaly. The vehicle is highly instrumented with extensive data from multiple camera angles and sensors, giving us confidence in our ability to identify and correct the root cause. Early analysis points to the aft section of the first stage.

There is no doubt they can get the launchpad ready before the end of the year. Finding the cause of the explosion and fixing it by December however remains less certain. Limp’s reticence could be simply the company’s desire to restrict access to proprietary information. Or it could be they haven’t yet pinned down the cause. If the latter, the December date becomes far more doubtful.

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June 30, 2026 Quick space links

2:45 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay, plus one from reader Nate P. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

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New research on ISS shows weightlessness causes significant harm to mice babies and their descendents

12:59 pm

A recent 42-day experiment on ISS, where mice were allowed to reproduce in weightlessness and produce offspring, has found that the weightlessness environment not only causes significant harm to mice conceived and born under these conditions, it appears to carry that harm down to at least the next generation.

From the abstract, which labels the first generation offspring as F1 and the next generation F2:

In the NASA Rodent Research 20 mission, we examined the impact of a 42-d spaceflight on the female reproductive axis including ovulatory capacity, implantation rate, and fecundity as well as behavioral, metabolic, and functional outcomes in F1 and F2 offspring. Females bred 5 d after return to Earth became pregnant but only exhibited a slight decline in fecundity compared to ground controls.

In contrast, F1 offspring from spaceflight dams exhibited marked growth, functional, and behavioral differences compared to F1 offspring from control dams. Moreover, F1 female offspring from spaceflight dams exhibited decreased ovarian reserves as evidenced by reduced anti-Mullerian hormone levels early in life (21 d of age) and premature ovarian failure or an early loss in fertility, as indicated by reduced numbers of litters and total number of pups born to females over a 9-mo period.

Strikingly, transgenerational metabolic and reproductive disturbances were also observed in F2 pups of spaceflight granddams, including persistent reductions in ovarian reserve, suggesting germline-level effects.

In other words, mice babies conceived and born in space exhibited serious issues that were also carried over into the next generation.

Though a number of similar studies have been done previously on ISS, the research is generally limited and inconclusive. Experiments on Earth duplicating lower or zero gravity suggest it has no effect on reproduction. This study however tested actual weightlessness, and found it decidedly harmful for newborn mice and later generations.

The results strongly argue that no woman should allow herself to become pregnant while in space. This conclusion might change given time, but I have my doubts. This result is what most people assume about the consequences of conception in weightlessness.

It also argues strongly for the need of some form of artificial gravity on future long term interplanetary space vessels. Without it, space travel will be significantly limited.

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The present state of NASA’s Artemis program

12:00 pm

Artemis logo

The aggressive effort by NASA administrator Jared Isaacman to rationalize and speed up the agency’s Artemis program to get back to the Moon and build a base there has resulted in a plethora of new missions, almost all of which are being built by the private sector.

Today Isaacman and his Moon Base program manager, Carlos García-Galán, held a press conference where they announced four more missions.

  • Astrobotic won a $297.9 million contract to build and fly two more of its smaller Peregrine lunar landers. This lander attempted a landing in 2024, but a fuel leak right after launch made that impossible.
  • Firefly won a $144.2 million contract to build and fly another Blue Ghost lander, the only commercial lander to successfully achieve a lunar soft landing, in 2025.
  • Intuitive Machines won a $148.3 million contract to build and fly another Nova-C lander. This lander attempted two landings, and in both cases it tipped over just after launch. The Nova-D design, under development, has a lower center of gravity, but for reasons not well explained by García-Galán NASA chose to go with the Nova-C design.

All are considered part of the first phase of the Artemis program and thus are targeting a launch by 2028.

In addition, NASA is considering using back-up equipment developed to build the Curiosity and Perseverance Mars rovers to create quickly and relatively inexpensively a lunar rover that they have dubbed “Promise.”

In order to make some sense of this program and these many misssions, I have created below a chronological list of confirmed missions, with their present status indicated (including uncertainties), as well as some unconfirmed missions based on my own speculations. All dates are tentative at this point, even if NASA has provided us a specific target date.

Several things to note as you review this list. While there are handful of missions going elsewhere, Isaacman is attempting to focus the program toward landing at the planned lunar base near the south pole, and to do so as fast as possible in the most effective way. The cargo missions and rovers are to get there ahead of the manned missions, in order to provide the astronauts supplies and surface transportation once they arrive. Those same missions will also do some preliminary scouting, and likely carry power and excavation equpiment needed to build the base.

It is also important to note that this plan is still in its very early stages of development. Many of the rockets and spacecraft and landers needed for these missions are not yet operational. Many have not yet demonstrated the capability to do what is requested. Thus, the program will certainly not follow the plan as presently outlined by the agency. Moreover, there will be failures along the way.

The program however is designed to accelerate development, to accept those failures within the program’s larger scope. If one mission fails, others are on the table to fly quickly to overcome the loss. And since the program is relying on the entire aerospace industry, the agency will have great redundancy from many companies.

I welcome comments and suggested changes or corrections. I fully intend to publish this list repeatedly over the coming years as the Artemis program evolves. And as the private sector begins flying its own missions to the Moon, independent of NASA, I intend to include those as well.
» Read more

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Study: Seventeen days in space does little to change brain power

10:31 am

According to a new study testing the vital brain signs of two astronauts before and after the seventeen day Axiom tourist mission to ISS in 2022, weightlessness and the space environment resulted in no sign of cognitive decline or changes in brain function.

You can read the paper here. From the abstract:

This study is a methodological demonstration of comparing cognitive performance and electroencephalography (EEG) brain vital signs in 2 astronauts before, shortly after, and 5 months following a 17-d mission to the International Space Station. Cognitive task performance remained consistent between pre- and post-spaceflight measures. Similarly, EEG brain vital signs revealed minimal change in the time-frequency domain. These findings suggest that short-duration spaceflight, combined with sufficient Earth adaptation time, showed no major decrements in cognitive and neurophysiological function.

Though it has been evident now since the 1960s that two- to three-week missions cause no lasting impact on the body or brain, this study documents a baseline technique for measuring the changes that might occur on longer flights.

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NASA’s IG: Boeing must foot the bill to get Starliner certified for manned flights

10:02 am

Starliner docked to ISS
Starliner docked to ISS.

The inspector general (IG) for NASA today released a new audit report [pdf] of the agency’s management of its manned commercial crew program, specifically looking at Boeing’s Starliner capsule and its failures. Though the IG made six recommendations, mostly about management procedures to better run the program, the first was the most important:

As the [Boeing] contract allows, defer payments, including partial or advanced payments, to Boeing for any Starliner-3 milestones until the human-rating certification of Starliner is complete.

In other words, the IG doesn’t want NASA to pay Boeing anything more. Boeing’s contract for Starliner was fixed price. It is Boeing’s responsibility to deliver the product, and until it does so NASA should lay out no more cash.

More significantly, NASA’s management immediately concurred with this recommendation.

This IG report now explains much of what happened in the past few months. » Read more

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New Horizons confirms: the solar wind slows as you travel outward

9:25 am

Figure 6 from the paper.
Figure 6 from the paper. Click for full resolution.

The science team for the New Horizons spacecraft, presently zipping outward towards the edge of the solar system, has confirmed earlier data from the Voyager spacecraft that the solar winds speed slows gradually as you move outward from the Sun.

You can read the paper here [pdf]. The distances are measured using astronomical units (AU), each equivalent to the distance from the Sun to the Earth, about 93 million miles.

Previously, New Horizons and Voyager 2 measurements between 30 and 43 AU indicated the solar wind was 5 to 10% slower than at 1 AU near Earth. Now, New Horizons researchers found at 58 AU that the solar wind is 13 to 15% slower than the wind at 1 AU. This gradual slowdown aligns with previous models of how interstellar material enters the heliosphere and affects the solar wind. It also demonstrates how the Sun’s influence decreases over long distances.

The scientists postulate that the slowing is caused by interaction with “interstellar neutral gas particles” that have managed to slip into the solar system. Their interaction with solar wind particles acts to slow the particles down.

New Horizons has not yet reached the termination shock that delineates the edge of the solar system. When it does, entering interstellar space, the wind speed will plummet significantly more, based on data from both Voyagers.

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The rise and fall of two Australian spaceports

8:53 am

Australian commercial spaceports
Australia’s commercial spaceports as of 2024. Click for original map.

Two stories today about the success of one Australian commercial spaceport and the failure of another illustrate perfectly the normal ups and downs one can expect from freedom and capitalism.

The ports in question are Southern Launch and Equatorial Launch Australia. In the first story, Southern Launch announced today that it has raised $25 million in private investment capital.

Adelaide-based spaceport operator Southern Launch has raised $25 million in a funding round led by national security investor Brindabella & Company, with the National Reconstruction Fund Corporation (NRFC) committing $10 million in direct equity to help scale Australia’s sovereign launch infrastructure.

The capital will fund expansion of Southern Launch’s two facilities – the Koonibba Test Range on the far west coast of South Australia and the Whalers Way Orbital Launch Complex near Port Lincoln – as the company works to meet growing demand from domestic and international launch customers.

Though the spaceport has obtained several tentative launch contacts, this success is mostly the result of its multiple contracts by capsule companies to use Koonibba as a landing site. There is a boom in this recoverable capsule industry at this time — with lots of investment money and multiple companies flying or building capsules. Koonibba at this moment has become the go-to place for such landings.

In the second story, we learn the sad fate of Equatorial Launch Australia (ELA). » Read more

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Rocket Lab buys Iridium

3:39 pm

In a blockbuster deal today, Rocket Lab acquired the satellite company Iridium and all its satellite constellation assets.

Rocket Lab will acquire all the outstanding shares of Iridium common stock for $54 per share in a cash and stock transaction. This represents an enterprise value for Iridium of approximately $8.0 billion.

The acquisition … merges Rocket Lab’s leading launch capabilities and satellite manufacturing with Iridium’s global satellite communications network, spectrum, and 500-plus strong partner ecosystem to create a competitive, vertically-integrated space company that designs, builds, launches, and operates its own constellations, delivering critical communications capability to millions of users worldwide.

The transaction will give Rocket Lab an immediate foothold in space-based applications, including both proprietary and standards-based satellite Internet of Things (IoT) and direct-to-device (D2D), PNT (GPS-capability), and critical safety-of-life services, creating a formidable challenger in the global telecom market.

This deal continues Rocket Lab’s aggressive effort in the last few years to diversify its capabilities beyond simply launching rockets. It has successfully demonstrated its ability to build satellites and even interplanetary probes. This merger immediately gives the company the spectrum and communications constellation that already has 2.5 million subscribers, with the ability to enhance and expand that constellation using its launch and satellite capabilities. With the introduction of its larger Neutron rocket next year, Rocket Lab will be well positioned to compete directly with all the other communications constellations, and to do it at a lower cost.

The deal also strengthens the company’s vertical integration. As the press release notes, it “creates an end-to-end space company spanning launch, spacecraft, spectrum, and on-orbit communications services through a proprietary network. Expected to eliminate third-party launch costs for constellation deployment and replenishment and captures launch margin internally while guaranteeing orbital access as launch capacity tightens, ensuring continuity of service to customers.”

Not surprisingly, the value of Rocket Lab’s stock today has leaped upward, rising from a closing price on Friday of around $85 to over $100 today (late Monday).

The industry trend across the board now is vertical integration, begun by SpaceX. It just pays to have the rocket company own the satellite constellation. Such a partnership lowers cost, and gives the company great flexibility and control. Expect more satellite constellations to team up with other rocket companies, especially the startups like Stoke Space and Relativity that are building reusable rockets.

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June 29, 2026 Quick space links

2:40 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

11 comments

We’re all gonna die! Seismologists model the San Andreas fault, and find it about to blow!

9:37 am

Chicken Little rules!
Chicken Little rules!

According to computer simulations based on known but very limited earthquake data during the past 1,000 years, scientists now claim that the San Andreas fault in California is now “critically stressed,” suggesting a big quake is coming soon.

You can read their paper here. The news article at the first link above is typical of most mainstream reports, very much focused on expressing certain doom based on the certainty of this research:

The volatile seismic zone along the roughly 750-mile (1,200-km) San Andreas Fault and the smaller San Jacinto Fault are now “critically stressed” – reaching a 1,000-year high level of pressure – increasing the likelihood of a big earthquake hitting the US West Coast.

Using physics-based modeling and 1,000 years of earthquake data, Earth scientists at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa demonstrated how the build-up of stress throughout these two fault systems and at the juncture of the Cajon Pass is at an all-time high.

The “1,000 years of earthquake data” however is extremely limited, with only the last 100 years reasonably covered. That sparse data is then used to create computer models and simulations, from which these Chicken Little conclusions are drawn.

In other words, garbage in, garbage out.

Without doubt a large quake along the San Andreas fault is eventually going to happen. In fact, scientists have been making this same exact prediction now for almost a half century. That no such quake has happened doesn’t make the prediction false, but the endless predictions of doom by the seismology community for a half century has made them sound increasingly like the little boy who cried wolf. They simply don’t have sufficient knowledge to predict when the quake will happen, but their endless cries of doom has blunted the impact of their words.

Meanwhile, the uncertainty and limitations of their knowledge are too often ignored by the press. To this press: “They are SCIENTISTS, so they KNOW!”

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Hayabusa-2 to fly past asteroid July 5, 2026

9:13 am

Ryugu's northern hemisphere
Ryugu as seen by Hayabusa-2 shortly before it grabbed
samples from the surface in 2019. Arrow indicates planned touchdown
site.

Despite having only one working ion engine, Japan’s Hayabusa-2 asteroid probe will do a fast and extremely close fly-by of the asteroid Torifune on July 5, 2026.

The flyby will see Hayabusa2 get within 1 to 10 kilometers (0.62 to 6.2 miles) of Torifune, using its instrument suite to study the roughly 450-meter-wide (1,476 feet) asteroid as it whizzes past at 5.3 kilometers per second (3.3 miles per second).

Not much is known about Torifune, so a fly-by this close carries risk. In addition, three of Hayabusa’s four ion engines no longer work, and the fourth is starting to degrade.

If successful, however, the fly-by will not only tell us something more about Torifune, it will increase the chances Hayabusa-2 can reach asteroid 1998 KY26 in 2031. That asteroid is small, only about 35 feet across. The plan would be for Hayabusa- to fly in formation for a period, and even attempt a touch down.

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NASA asks industry for proposals for building lunar base infrastructure

8:57 am

NASA today issued a request for feedback from the private sector for building its Moon Base, including the infrastructure for providing “surface power, in-situ resource utilization, [and] advanced manufacturing.”

The solicitation focuses on five technologies that NASA considers necessary but insufficiently developed at this point, some of which it also considers necessary for exploring and colonizing the entire solar system.

  • Solar power generation, including power management and distribution, and energy storage.
  • Radioisotope power, for use by operating spacecraft systems in the solar system’s “darkest, dustiest, and most remote places”.
  • In-situ resource utilization, including using lunar materials to produce fuel, water, and oxygen.
  • In-space advanced manufacturing for producing “essential tools and materials” on the Moon and Mars.
  • Innovative nanomaterials, for use in spacecraft and instruments in order to reduce their weight and size at launch.

The announcement notes that NASA is requesting input from industry, hoping it can “identify any areas of ambiguity, or concerns.” The agency will then revise accordingly.

This solicitation is another example of NASA administrator Jared Isaacman’s push to rationalize the entire Artemis program, to take seriously the real requirements for building a Moon base. Previously NASA made noises along these lines, but management did not do the proper due diligence to figure out what needs to get built in order to actually make a Moon base happen.

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SpaceX launches Sirius radio geosynchronous satellite

11:55 pm

SpaceX tonight successfully launched a SiriusXM radio geosynchronous satellite, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral Space Force station in Florida.

The first stage (B1085) completed its 17th flight (31 days after its previous mission), landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic. The two fairings completed their 6th and 30th flights respectively.

This was SpaceX’s second launch today. The leaders in the 2026 launch race:

78 SpaceX
41 China
10 Rocket Lab (plus two suborbital HASTE launches)
8 Russia

For the third straight year SpaceX leads the entire world combined in total launches, 78 to 71.

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SpaceX launches 24 more Starlink satellites

9:16 am

SpaceX this morning successfully launched another 24 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

The first stage (B1088) completed its 17th flight (25 days after its previous flight), landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

The leaders in the 2026 launch race:

77 SpaceX
41 China
10 Rocket Lab (plus two suborbital HASTE launches)
8 Russia

For the third straight year SpaceX leads the entire world combined in total launches, 77 to 71.

8 comments

First unmanned test of India’s manned Gaganyaan capsule possibly delayed until late ’27

9:11 am

Artist rendering of India's Gaganyaan capsule
Artist rendering of India’s Gaganyaan capsule

In a presentation yesterday, the head of India’s space agency ISRO V Narayanan indicated that the first unmanned test flight of its manned Gaganyaan capsule might be delayed until the third quarter of 2027.

That test flight was originally targeting a March 2026 launch — part of a series of three unmanned test flights before the manned flight in early 2027 — but March came and went and nothing happened, nor did ISRO explain the lack of any action.

In indicating the possible delay, Narayanan also noted that the agency was looking at a launch before the end of this year. A delay until late ’27 — more than a year — however would suggest a significant issue. It would also mean the manned flight could not occur until 2028, at the earliest.

When Gaganyaan was first proposed in 2018, the goal was to have the first orbital flight in 2022. Since then the program has experienced endless delays and postponements. This new announcement, with no explanation, fits ISRO’s recent pattern of secrecy. No specific reasons for this year’s delays have ever been offered. Meanwhile, the agency has refused to outline for more than two years the specific causes of the two PSLV rocket failures of its third stage, both of which occurred at almost the exact same time in launch.

The secrecy suggests a cultural problem at ISRO, even more serious than a technical one. It implies an unwillingness to deal with error, thus resulting in repeated failures.

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