Category: Behind The Black

NASA hires Terran Orbital and Advanced Space to build and fly Capstone-2

12:48 pm

Duel Capstone-2 orbiters
Duel Capstone-2 orbiters. Click for original.

Capitalism in space: NASA yesterday announced it has hired Advanced Space, the company that acted as mission control for the Capstone-1 lunar orbiter (built by Terran Orbital), to be the lead for the Capstone-2 mission, sending two small probes (to once again be built by Terran Orbital) to lunar orbit to test formation flying.

The demonstration will fly two identical spacecraft of approximately 400 kilograms (882 pounds) from Terran Orbital Systems, Inc. Mission operators will conduct a series of rendezvous and proximity operations and loitering – or formation flying – techniques in lunar orbit with each spacecraft to better understand the trajectories of the spacecraft under the simultaneous influence of Earth and Moon gravities, otherwise known as three-body orbits.

The launch its targeting 2027, though when that year is not stated. The CAPSTONE 02 mission will use ground tracking measurements, optical sensors, and celestial bodies to help one spacecraft locate and rendezvous with another. The mission will apply navigation strategies similar to those planned for Orion’s approach to a lunar lander in deep space, helping NASA build confidence in these techniques for future exploration. Each CAPSTONE 02 spacecraft will have the ability to switch between ‘chaser’ and ‘target’ roles, testing a broad range of operational scenarios under a variety of environmental conditions in cislunar space.

Note that this entire mission will be built, launched, and operated by private companies. NASA’s only job is outlining the technical knowledge it wishes to learn for future manned missions. Terran Orbital and Advanced Space will then provide it.

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Wildfire in Spain threatens one of NASA’s three Deep Space Network antennas

10:13 am

A wildfire in Spain has forced the evacuation at NASA’s Madred Deep Space Network antenna, one of three the agency maintains worldwide to communicate with its interplanetary missions.

Spain and France are battling wildfires in many regions right now. The BBC reports that more than 130,000 people have been evacuated in the two countries.

NASA’s DSN station is in Robledo de Chavela, Spain, about 65 kilometers (37 miles) west of Madrid. La Razon reports that the entire town was evacuated. INFUES Ávila, which tracks forest fires in the province of Avila, posted an image on X (@InfuesAvila) of fire and smoke near one of the antennas.

The agency says all employees are safe, and that the fire “has already passed through” the area. It will assess the damage when it is safe to return to the area. Meanwhile, NASA has using its Goldstone antenna in California to pick up the slack. It also has its Canberra antenna in Australia.

The temporary loss of one third of this network however will likely slow communications with the Mars orbiters and rovers as well as other missions.

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SpaceX launches 24 Starlink satellites

9:01 am

SpaceX this morning successfully launched another 24 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

The first stage (B1100) completed its 8th flight (only 23 days after its previous mission), landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

The leaders in the 2026 launch race:

90 SpaceX
48 China
10 Rocket Lab (plus two suborbital HASTE launches)
10 Russia

For the third straight year SpaceX leads the entire world combined in total launches, 90 to 83.

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ULA takes out a loan to cover losses due to Vulcan grounding

8:46 am

It appears that the rocket company ULA (owned jointly by Lockheed Martin and Boeing) has taken out a loan, guaranteed by Lockheed Martin to as much as $500 million, in order to cover the loss of income due to the grounding of ULA’s Vulcan rocket.

In a Securities and Exchange Commission filing about its second-quarter financial results July 23, Lockheed Martin revealed that it provided a bank guarantee for a loan taken by ULA during the quarter. Lockheed owns 50% of ULA, while Boeing owns the other half. “During the first quarter of 2026, ULA’s Vulcan Centaur rocket experienced performance challenges that are negatively affecting ULA’s financial condition and results of operations,” Lockheed stated in the filing. “In the second quarter of 2026, we agreed to guarantee certain ULA borrowings under which maximum potential future payments amount to $500 million.”

“The fair value of the guarantee obligation we recognized in the second quarter of 2026 amounts to $64 million and our investment in ULA has increased by a corresponding amount,” it added.

Though the article assumes Boeing contributed an equal guarantee, the company did not respond to inquiries and has not confirmed this assumption.

Vulcan is grounded because of nozzle issues with Northrop Grumman’s strap-on solid-fueled boosters, used to maximize the rocket’s payload capacity. Northrop says it has pinned down the issue, redesigned the nozzle, and expects to be ready to resume launches by the end of the year.

ULA had hoped however to launch as many as 22 times this year, with almost all of those launches Vulcan. Instead, it has only launched four times so far, with one Vulcan (with nozzle issues) and three Atlas-5 launches. The Atlas-5 is being retired, and the company only has six left in stock, all reserved by Boeing for its troubled Starliner capsule, also grounded.

As a result, NASA and the Pentagon have switched to different rockets for several of their payloads. Meanwhile, Amazon has been unable to get its Leo satellites into orbit, as it is relying heavily on Vulcan for the bulk of its launches.

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13th Starship/Superheavy launch goes almost perfectly

5:06 pm

Starship/Superheavy, shortly after launch and looking down at Boca Chica
Starship/Superheavy, shortly after launch and looking
down at Boca Chica

SpaceX today successfully launched its Starship/Superheavy rocket on its 13th orbital test flight, during which the company was able to complete almost all of its planned tasks, as intended.

The only issue occurred when Superheavy ignited its engines for its landing burn a couple of miles off the coast of Texas. The plan was to fire 13 Raptor-3 engines. Instead, only ten lit initially. Almost immediately another two engines cut out, leaving eight firing, only for three more to shut down a few seconds later. The five working engines however were not enough to slow the booster enough for a soft splashdown. It instead continued to fire until the rocket hit the water hard.

In orbit, Starship successfully deployed 20 version-3 Starlink satellites, with the last two using cameras to photograph the ship’s exterior, as was done on the previous flight with the dummy satellites. Engineers were able to activate and communicate with all 20, and also link the satellites using communication lasers, before the satellites began breaking up in the atmosphere as their orbits decayed.

The ship then did a 14-second engine firing of one Raptor-3 engine, proving again that the engines can relight reliably once in orbit to accurately de-orbit Starship.

Starship afloat and intact after the flight
Starship afloat and intact after the flight

Finally, Starship completed a soft splashdown in the Indian Ocean, once again proving that its thermal system works as planned. In fact, the splashdown was so soft and perfect that Starship fell sideways and then floated serenely on the ocean. On previous landings after splashing down vertically, the ship fell over hard and exploded. This time it remained afloat long enough for drones to get great imagery of the thermal tile system post landing. Even cameras inside the ship beamed back images. As noted by one announcer, the heat shield seemed “pretty intact. … You could count the number of missing tiles on one hand.” I would not be surprised if SpaceX manages to salvage the ship and bring it back to Boca Chica.

This success makes it very likely that the 14th test flight will be a full orbital test, lasting several orbits at least but more likely a full day.

The failure of several of Superheavy’s Raptor-3 three engines during the landing burn needs to be addressed, but this flight showed a significant improvement over the last flight, where multiple engines failed to light on both Superheavy and Starship after stage separation. The improvement suggests SpaceX’s engineers have a handle on this issue, and are making progress in fixing it. Based on the company’s multi-decade track record, once fixed it will not reappear ever again.

I predict that the next flight will take place no more then six weeks from now.

Though this flight did not complete a full orbit, I consider this an orbital success, because that low orbit was intentional. The rocket demonstrated the ability to reach orbit, and did so successfully. I thus add it to my launch count. The leaders in the 2026 launch race:

89 SpaceX
48 China
10 Rocket Lab (plus two suborbital HASTE launches)
10 Russia

For the third straight year SpaceX leads the entire world combined in total launches, 89 to 83.

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July 24, 2026 Quick space links

2:59 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

Note: X now requires log in to view videos with sound. You can get around this by clicking on the three dots at the top right to get the embed code. Ask for the code for an “embedded video.” The video will then be available for watching with sound.

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Martian crater with many gullies flowing into corroded “irregular cellular structures”

2:20 pm

Gullies and corroded glacial material in a Martian crater

Cool image time! The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, reduced, and enhanced to post here, was taken by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) and downloaded on June 1, 2026.

The science team labels the features on the floor of the crater vaguely as “irregular cellular structures on crater floor,” which to my eye — after looking at innumerable MRO pictures of craters on Mars — looks like glacial fill that has begun to sublimate away. As it does, from below, its protective top layer of dirt and debris begins to resemble peeling paint, or in this case the “irregular cellular structures” as described by the scientists.

Their description is purposely vague because they have probably not yet confirmed the presence of ice in this particular crater, though this supposition is reasonable based on almost two decades of orbital data.
» Read more

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GAO releases a schizophrenic report on NASA

11:31 am

GAO: Work force reductions across NASA

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) earlier this week released a report on the state of NASA’s major projects and the impact on the agency of Trump’s work force reductions.

The graph to the right, from the report, shows those reductions across numerous NASA centers nationwide.

In reading the report [pdf], I couldn’t help noting the sharp contrast from its first section, outlining the generally solid state of the agency’s major projects, and its second section, describing the terrible impact of Trump’s workforce reductions, which reduced NASA workforce by about 22%.

The report appeared almost schizophrenic, having a dual personality, with the first section written by a Republican and the second section by a Democrat.

In the first section, after reviewing the major changes imposed on the Artemis program by NASA administrator Jared Isaacman, the key paragraph was this:
» Read more

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JAXA successfully tests older solid-fueled motor for use in its Epsilon-S rocket

9:15 am

Japan's space agency JAXA

Japan’s space agency JAXA has successfully completed a two minute static fire test of an older version of an upper stage solid-fueled motor for use in its new Epsilon-S rocket, the first launch of which has been delayed years because its upgraded upper stage motor kept failing in tests.

The engine burned normally for about two minutes in the test conducted at 9 a.m. at the Tanegashima Space Center in Kagoshima Prefecture. JAXA will now examine the data, such as temperature and strain, in detail before determining whether the test was a success. It seeks the launch of a demonstration rocket within this fiscal year.

… In a change in policy, JAXA used an older model with a history of successful launches in the test, because two previous tests of a new model had ended in an explosion. It made the decision so that its flagship rockets will all be operational as soon as possible.

Epsilon-S was originally supposed to do its inaugural launch in 2024. JAXA now hopes to do it later this year. Using the older upper stage design however reduces the rocket’s capabilities, and also likely increases its cost, as the original design was supposed to be less expensive.

While India is making a real effort to promote a private rocket sector and shift to the capitalism model, and China has been utilizing a pseudo-version of that model to invigorate its space industry, Japan remains a backwater, barely able to launch anything because it continues to rely too much on its space agency while its private sector seems captured by it.

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Google owns 6% of SpaceX

9:00 am

Google logo

Based on information in the most recent quarterly filing by Google’s parent company Alphabet, it owns about $94.1 billion in SpaceX stock, including both private and public investment, which according to the Wall Street Journal equals a 6% stake in the rocket company.

Of the total holding, approximately $80 billion remains subject to short-term post-IPO lockup restrictions, preventing near-term sales. An additional $14.1 billion faces longer-term restrictions, extending into the third quarter of 2027. This structure limits immediate liquidity but protects against market volatility as SpaceX transitions into public trading.

The SpaceX position contributed significantly to gains in Alphabet’s broader investment portfolio, which also includes a major stake in AI leader Anthropic. Combined, these holdings helped drive nearly $100 billion in investment gains during the second quarter, providing a substantial boost to net income amid ongoing AI spending pressures.

This revelation tells us that Google was one of the earlier investors in Starlink and Starship, making it possible for SpaceX to build the rocket with private funds and no government aid. It is also evidence that a major shift has been going on at Google since since 2017, when its woke/leftist employees forced the firing of an employee for criticizing the company’s leftist bias. Throughout the Covid panic the company also took action to squelch conservative free speech.

After Covid however there appeared to be a shift towards the middle at Google, though the company was still censoring political content it didn’t like. This major investment in SpaceX in recent years suggests that some common sense has percolated back into the company’s upper management.

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Japan’s lunar lander startup Ispace wins $74 million contract from Europe

8:36 am

Artist rendering of Ispace's Ultra lunar lander
Artist rendering of Ispace’s Ultra lunar lander

Only a little more than a week after NASA canceled a major lunar lander contract with the Japan’s lunar lander startup Ispace, the company’s European division has won a $74 million lunar lander contract from the European Space Agency (ESA).

The agreement represents ESA’s commitment to funding MAGPIE, Europe’s first lunar polar ice exploration rover and its flight. MAGPIE will investigate the Moon’s south polar region, advancing scientific understanding of lunar volatiles, water ice stability and regolith properties while supporting future resource prospecting to enable lunar exploration.

The contract, valued at €65 million, funds the full remaining delivery of the MAGPIE mission, including rover and payload development, manufacture, testing, transportation to the lunar surface and lunar surface operations.

MAGPIE will fly on Ispace’s planned fourth mission, scheduled for a 2029 launch and already under construction. That lander, dubbed Ultra, is being funded by Japan’s Space Strategy Fund (designed to encourage Japanese private enterprise). This new contract apparently provides it a European payload.

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China launches five classified satellites

8:24 am

China today successfully placed five classified satellites into orbit, its solid-fueled Kinetica-1 rocket (also called Lijian-1) lifting off from its Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China.

China’s state-run press provided no information about the satellites, not even mentioning their names. That state-run press also said nothing about where the rocket’s lower stages crashed inside China.

The leaders in the 2026 launch race:

88 SpaceX
48 China
10 Rocket Lab (plus two suborbital HASTE launches)
10 Russia

For the third straight year SpaceX leads the entire world combined in total launches, 88 to 83.

2 comments

July 23, 2026 Quick space links

2:47 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay as well as the last link from reader Nate P. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

Note: X now requires log in to view videos with sound. You can get around this by clicking on the three dots at the top right to get the embed code. Ask for the code for an “embedded video.” The video will then be available for watching with sound.

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The study that found half of all social science papers cannot be replicated also found that NO education research could be replicated

1:53 pm

Junk research in the soft sciences
Junk research in the soft sciences

In June 2026, I reported on a major 7-year study of more than 3,900 social science papers that found that more than half could not be replicated, suggesting that a very very large percentage of social science research is junk and should be ignored.

A recent close analysis of that paper, shown in the graph above, reveals even more starkly how worthless some of this “science” is. In the field of education, of the six papers the researchers attempted to replicate, only three could be “approximately replicated” (which the researchers appeared to consider largely unsatisfactory). No papers could be confidently replicated. In the field of business, of the six papers tested only one could be replicated, with two others getting that “approximately replicated” label.

In sociology the result was only slightly better but still terrible, with only two of nine papers replicated with confidence.

Meanwhile, about 60% of the papers tested in economic and political science could be replicated.

These are all the soft sciences, but it appears that education, business, and sociology are softer than others. Or to put it more bluntly, the research in these fields is likely all worthless. Education and sociology have been poisoned by Marxist critical race theory now for years. The education field in particular has become more interested in teaching kids the queer agenda and telling lies of oppression about western civilization than teaching the three “R’s”. This inability to replicate any of its junk research shows how bankrupt this part of academia has become.

Business research meanwhile has been equally poisoned by Marxist ideology and the bad business practices of the MBA academic world. No wonder modern corporations so routinely treat their customers like dirt, and fail so spectacular. Their Ivy League managers care only about DEI and ending capitalist oppression and nothing about running a company effectively while creating good products people will want to buy.

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Large distinct Martian gully

12:32 pm

A large gully on Mars

Cool image time! The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, and reduced to post here, was taken on June 1, 2026 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaisance Orbiter (MRO).

The object of focus is obviously that large gully, draining downhill about 5,000 feet to the northeast, over a distance of about three miles.

Gullies like this are found in many places in the Martian mid-latitudes. When first discovered scientists thought they might be related to the sublimation of underground ice. More recent research suggests they are formed by the seasonal dry ice frost cycle that in the high latitudes has carbon dioxide condense to fall as snow in autumn and then sublimate away in the spring.

This latter hypothesis however generally applies to a set of gullies on the interior rim of craters, all of which experience that cycle of freeze-thaw. In the case of this large gully the former hypothesis seems more likely, as it appears to be within a thick lobe of soft material that was a mass wasting event of glacial material off the crater wall (whereby a large section detaches and moves downward). Regardless, the near surface ice impregnated in the soil appears to be sublimating away, creating the gully.
» Read more

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Could Japan’s Hayabusa-2 next target asteroid be instead a failed Soviet Mars probe?

9:53 am

Artist rendering of Phobos-1 in orbit around Mars
Artist rendering of Phobos-1 in orbit around Mars

Scientists reviewing the data known about the asteroid 1998 KY26, the next goal of Japan’s Hayabusa-2 asteroid probe, now speculate that it might not be an asteroid at all but could instead be the failed Soviet Mars probe, Phobos-1.

The researchers came up with this possibility due to 1998 KY26 small size, its inexplicable orbital shifts, and the fact that its solar orbit closely matches that of Phobos-1 after it failed to enter Mars orbit when a mistyped command shut down its systems.

Hibberd points out that the 10-metre (32.8ft) span of its solar panels matches the estimated size of 1998 KY26 and that the craft would be expected to have a high albedo. The non-gravitational acceleration of the object would be explained by solar radiation pressure as sunlight reflects off the probe’s shiny metallic surfaces.

For the interplanetary trajectory of Phobos 1 to fit the measured orbit of 1998 KY26, the probe would need to have subsequently fired its rocket twice, say the team: once on 2 September 1988 (shortly after contact was lost) and then again on 19 May 1996. This isn’t impossible for a malfunctioning spacecraft and there is some evidence that Phobos 1 did indeed fire its rocket without being commanded.

The last supposition, that the spacecraft fired its engines on its own, is the most implausible part of this theory, but not impossible.

Hayabusa-2 is scheduled to arrive at 1998 KY26 in 2031, assuming its last ion thruster does not fail. We shall then find out if this wild theory is right. If so, the probe will have an entirely different job. Rather than studying a very small asteroid, it will be studying a piece of human space history.

UPDATE: I just realized that one of the scientists putting out this theory is Avi Loeb, the Harvard hack who relentless pushed the idea that Comet 3I/Atlas was an alien spaceship long after data showed it was nothing more than a comet. His name on this work makes this hypothesis far less creditable.

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Watching the 13th orbital test flight of SpaceX’s Starship/Superheavy

9:10 am

Starship/Superheavy at T-4:00 minutes on July 13th
Starship/Superheavy at T-4:00 minutes on July 16th.
Click for source.

FINAL UPDATE: See this post for a report on the flight.

UPDATE: Delayed 24 hours due to weather. Now scheduled for 5:45 pm (Central) on July 24th. More specifically, the weather above the Gulf was too cloudy for good observations of Starship’s heat shield during ascent. The company decided to delay until tomorrow, when conditions is expected to be “ideal.”

Originally posted July 19, 2026. Bumped to today, the launch date.

Original post:
————————–
Now that SpaceX has confirmed the launch date for the 13th orbital test flight of Starship/Superheavy for July 20, 2026 July 23, 2026 July 24, 2026, with a 90-minute launch window beginning at 5:45 pm (Central), it is time to provide my readers with the many ways they can watch the launch. I have embedded several live streams below. SpaceX’s live steam can be found here. I have embed it below:

The flight plan remains the same as last week, a low orbit that will bring the ship down in the Indian Ocean. The main goals are to test the Raptor-3 engines, bring Superheavy back as planned, relight a Raptor-3 engine in orbit, and test the ship’ thermal tile system during re-entry. In addition, the company will attempt to deploy 20 actual Starlink satellites rather than dummies.
» Read more

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