Category: Behind The Black

Shetland spaceport gets third launch customer

9:52 am

Capitalism in space: The United Kingdom’s Shetland spaceport, SaxaVord, announced today that it has signed a third launch customer, the smallsat rocket startup Venture Orbital Systems.

Venture Orbital Systems (VOS), a developer of micro launchers and rocket engines based in Reims, France, plans to use the site at Unst as part of its aim to reach 15 launches of its Zephyr rocket by 2026 and 40 by 2030.

The new spaceport, presently under construction, already has ABL as a future rocket compan. ABL, mostly owned by Lockheed Martin, hopes to launch before the end of the year.

The UK’s has a second spaceport under construction in Sutherland, Scotland. It will be interesting to see if both can garner enough business to prosper.

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Former CEO of Virgin Galactic sued over his pump-and-dump stock sale

9:44 am

Buyer beware: Chamath Palihapitiya, who recently stepped down as CEO of Virgin Galactic, has been sued by some of the company’s stockholders for using his insider position to pump-and-dump his stock while keeping vital information secret illegally.

The complaint, filed on behalf of Virgin Galactic to seek damages from its directors and officers, also alleges that founder Richard Branson pocketed $301 million by dumping his shares while the stock price was “artificially inflated.”

Leaders of the company were well aware of defects in its spacecraft three years before they were publicly disclosed last year, according to the complaint filed in federal court in Brooklyn, New York.

It is unclear from the article whether Branson is being sued as well.

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Satellite photos suggest Iran had a launch failure with rocket explosion on launchpad

9:38 am

Based on new satellite photos, it appears that an attempt by Iran to launch a satellite failed this week when the rocket exploded on the launchpad.

Before and after images taken by imagery satellites from two different private companies, Maxar and Planet Labs, suggest the incident likely occurred around February 26th.

Satellite images from Maxar Technologies seen by The Associated Press show scorch marks at a launchpad at Imam Khomeini Spaceport in Iran’s rural Semnan province on Sunday. A rocket stand on the pad appears scorched and damaged, with vehicles surrounding it. An object, possibly part of the gantry, sits near it.

Successful launches typically don’t damage rocket gantries because they are lowered prior to takeoff. Iran also usually immediately trumpets launches that reach space on its state-run television channels, and it has a history of not acknowledging failed attempts.

The news reports claims that the failed rocket was Iran’s Zuljanah rocket, which uses solid rocket motors for its lower stages. Zuljanah has never made orbit, having been unveiled one year ago after a single suborbital test flight.

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OneWeb scraps further launches from Russia

9:12 am

OneWeb’s board of directors has voted to cancel all further launches of its satellites from Russia, refusing to meet Russia’s demand that the United Kingdom divest its half share in the company.

On Thursday, OneWeb said the company’s board had voted to suspend all launches from Baikonur, Kazakhstan, where the Russian spaceport operated by Roscosmos is based.

OneWeb didn’t elaborate on the vote. But the UK’s Business and Energy Secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng, said his government had refused to divest from OneWeb, which received funding from British authorities in 2020 to stave off a bankruptcy. “The UK Government supports OneWeb’s decision,” Kwarteng tweeted on Thursday. “In light of Russia’s illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, we are reviewing our participation in all further projects involving Russian collaboration,” he added.

OneWeb hasn’t commented on the company’s contingency plans. But it’s almost certainly looking for a new launch partner. Russia’s Roscosmos previously helped OneWeb send up 428 of 648 satellites for its internet system, which is designed to serve enterprise users.

This decision, combined with Russia’s decision to suspend further Soyuz-2 rocket launches from French Guiana, essentially ends Russia’s partnership with Arianespace. It also likely ends for many years Russia’s place in the international launch market. OneWeb and Arianespace were its last remaining international customers, and their business is now gone. Even if the Ukraine War was settled today, I suspect neither would wish to renew their business with Russia.

As for OneWeb, it has a number of options in the growing launch market, with Arianespace’s rockets its most likely choice. Financially, the delay hurts them in two ways: First, they have paid Russia for a number of launches already, and Russia has said it will not refund the money. Thus, those launches will cost twice as much. Second, the delay hurts them in their effort to compete with SpaceX’s Starlink constellation.

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Martian crater overwhelmed by glacier?

1:32 pm

Martian crater overwhelmed by glacier?
Click for full image.

Cool image time! The photo to the right, rotated, cropped, and reduced to post here, was taken on January 28, 2022 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. It shows what the science team labels a “modified crater.”

What I see is an old crater almost completely covered by glacial material. That material however is also very old, as there are numerous small craters on its surface, enough that it must have been here for a long time. Its cracked surface also suggests this glacier is very old.

Thus, while we might have ice here, buried by a thin layer of dust and debris to prevent it from sublimating away, it must be very old ice. The many climate cycles caused by the extreme swings in Mars’ rotational tilt, from 11 to 60 degrees, have apparently not caused this ice to ebb and flow very much.

Might it therefore not be ice, but hardened lava?

The location, as shown by the overview map below, provides some context, but only makes this mystery more puzzling.
» Read more

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Sunspot update: The Sun rages on

10:54 am

Time for my monthly sunspot cycle update, where I take NOAA’s monthly graph showing the long term trends in the Sun’s sunspot activity, and annotate it with additional data to provide some context.

The trend of sunspot activity exceeding the predictions continued in February. While the increase in activity from January still left it less than the activity in December, the total number of sunspots is still far above the number predicted by NOAA’s panel of solar scientists in 2020, with the rise towards a solar maximum also much steeper and far faster than predicted.
» Read more

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Romania signs Artemis Accords

9:08 am

Romania on March 1st became the sixteenth nation to sign the Artemis Accords, designed to get around the Outer Space Treaty’s restrictions on private enterprise and property rights in space.

Romania is now the third former Soviet block nation to sign the accords, joining Poland and the Ukraine. The full list of signatories now includes Australia, Brazil, Canada, Israel, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, New Zealand, Poland, Romania, South Korea, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, the Ukraine, and the United States.

Up to now Germany and France — two of the west’s most important major space powers — have resisted signing, probably because both countries have had strong partnership ties with Russia, and Russia opposes the accords. The Russian invasion of the Ukraine however has caused Germany to break off all such Russian cooperation, which suggests it now may be more amendable to signing. I also suspect France may become more willing, though predicting France in these matters is always difficult.

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Germany turns off its instrument on the Spektr-RG orbiting X-ray telescope

8:59 am

As part of Germany’s decision to break off all scientific cooperation with Russia in response to Russia’s Ukraine invasion, the Max Plank Institute has turned off its instrument on the Spektr-RG orbiting X-ray telescope.

Meanwhile, Roscosmos’ head, Dmitry Rogozin revealed he will demand compensation from Europe for its sanctions, including this shut down on Spektr-RG.

Europe’s sanctions cause real losses to Russia’s space corporation Roscosmos. The corporation will estimate them and demand a compensation from partners in Europe, Roscosmos’s press-service told TASS on Tuesday. “They have caused harm to the Spektr-RG laboratory’s research program by turning off one of the two telescopes. Their sanctions cause real losses to us. The damage will be estimated and a bill presented to the European side,” Roscosmos said.

It now appears that all the European cooperation with Russia in space is likely dead, at least until Russia gets out of the Ukraine.

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Rogozin halts launch of OneWeb satelllites planned for March 5

8:41 am

The head of Roscosmos, Dmitry Rogozin, today announced that he has halted all launch preparations for the March 5th launch of 36 OneWeb satellites on a Soyuz-2 rocket from Baikonur in Kazakhstan unless he received reassurances by March 4th that they would not be used for military purposes against Russia.

Roskosmos head Dmitry Rogozin announced that the mission would not proceed unless he received assurances by 21:30 Moscow Time on March 4 of non-military use of the satellites. Rogozin also demanded that the British government give up its stake in OneWeb.

I suspect Rogozin’s action here is a response to SpaceX’s delivery of Starlink terminals and the activation of its use for the Ukraine to fight the Russian invasion.

It is now certain that all the planned Soyuz-2 OneWeb launches this year will likely not occur, unless the situation in the Ukraine becomes settled quickly. This means OneWeb will have to scramble to find a new launch provider and pay for the launches a second time, since they have already paid Russia for, according to sources I spoke to last night, the next four Russian launches. It won’t get a refund from Russia, for sure.

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NASA IG: SLS/Orion cost per launch equals $4.1 billion and is “unsustainable”

12:40 am

The real cost of SLS and Orion

At a House hearing today the NASA Inspector General Paul Martin stated unequivocally that the cost of NASA’s SLS rocket, Orion capsule, and the associated ground systems is about $4.1 billion per launch, which made the entire program, in his words, “unsustainable.”

Appearing before a House Science Committee hearing on NASA’s Artemis program, Martin revealed the operational costs of the big rocket and spacecraft for the first time. Moreover, he took aim at NASA and particularly its large aerospace contractors for their “very poor” performance in developing these vehicles.

Martin said that the operational costs alone for a single Artemis launch—for just the rocket, Orion spacecraft, and ground systems—will total $4.1 billion. This is, he said, “a price tag that strikes us as unsustainable.” With this comment, Martin essentially threw down his gauntlet and said NASA cannot have a meaningful exploration program based around SLS and Orion at this cost.

Martin’s testimony confirms what was contained in his November 2021 report, from which I took the graphic above. The article at the link details at length Martin’s testimony today, which was amazingly harsh. He also said that

NASA is obscuring costs that it is spending on the Artemis program and that, in aggregate, his office believes NASA will spend $93 billion from 2012 to 2025 on the Artemis program. “Without NASA fully accounting for and accurately reporting the overall costs of current and future Artemis missions, it will be much more difficult for Congress and the administration to make informed decisions about NASA’s long-term funding needs—a key to making Artemis a sustainable venture,” Martin said.

Martin has merely confirmed what I have been writing now for more than a decade, and documented at great length in my 2017 policy paper, Capitalism in Space. In fact, let me quote from one of my earliest essays on this subject on Behind the Black, from 2011:
» Read more

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The Democrats now prove there never was any science behind their mandates

12:21 pm

Most of all beware this boy.’
As noted by the Spirit of Christmas Present in Dickens’
The Christmas Carol, ‘This boy is ignorance, this girl is want.
Beware them both, but most of all beware this boy.’

Only months and years after most Republican Party governors and politicians had lifted or halted all mandates requiring masks or COVID shots or social distancing, in the past week Democrats in numerous places have suddenly decided that masks and COVID shots and social distancing have suddenly become unnecessary or ineffective, and have canceled almost all their government-edicts mandating such things.

Simultaneously, the CDC late last week finally loosened its mask recommendations, no longer demanding that Americans wear masks indoors or in many other circumstances.

What none of these announcements mentioned was any evidence of any new scientific results to justify the new recommendations or the loosening of mandates. These changes were based — not on new scientific results — but on the fear-based opinions of politicians and health bureaucrats who for the past two years have consistently based their edicts and mandates solely on emotions and politics, not scientific evidence, and were repeatedly wrong every single time.

That they happened to be correct now is not because they are basing their actions on any new”science”, but like a broken clock, even idiots can stumble on the truth once in awhile, by accident.

In this case however their stumbling is not entirely by accident. » Read more

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NASA buys three more manned Dragon flights from SpaceX

10:10 am

Capitalism in space: NASA today officially announced that it has extended its contract with SpaceX for manned Dragon flights by three, paying the company an additional $900 million.

Prior to the modification, SpaceX was contracted to fly three more missions to the ISS: Crew-4 and Crew-5 in 2022 and Crew-6 in 2023. With the extension, which is “fixed-price, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity,” per NASA’s statement. SpaceX’s period of performance now runs through March 31, 2028 — a nice regular paycheck for the growing launch and space operations company.

This contract extension raises what NASA is paying SpaceX for manned launch services from $2.6 billion to $3.49 billion.

While it is likely NASA would have brought more Dragon flights, it is also likely that some of these flights would have instead been bought from Boeing, if its much delayed Starliner manned capsule had been available. It is not, so SpaceX gets the business.

Boeing’s next attempt to complete Starliner’s first unmanned demo mission to ISS is now scheduled for May.

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Shetland spaceport construction to begin in March

10:03 am

Capitalism in space: Construction of the United Kingdom’s first spaceport in more than a half century is now set to begin this month in the Shetland Islands, with the first launch expected before the end of the year.

The Lamba Ness peninsular in Unst will be home to the £43 million spaceport, with builders set to start work in late March, after Shetland Islands Council gave the project planning permission.

Three launchpads will be built at the SaxaVord spaceport, allowing for the launch of small satellites into either polar or sun-synchronous low-Earth orbits.

The company is aiming to launch 30 rockets a year, and has set the target of seeing its first orbital launch from UK soil after the third quarter of this year.

It appears now that the United Kingdom is going to have two different competing spaceports, one on the Shetland Islands and the second in Sutherland, Scotland. It appears the UK rocket startup Skyrora as well as a partnership between Lockhead Martin and the smallsat rocket startup ABL will launch from Shetland, while the UK company Orbex will use Sutherland.

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Rocket Lab to build new Neutron rocket at Wallops Island in Virginia

9:53 am

Capitalism in space: Rocket Lab announced yesterday that it will build the manufacturing factory for its new Neutron rocket at the Wallops Island in Virginia, close to the company’s launchpad there.

The complex will be home to a rocket production, assembly, and integration facility, as well as a dedicated launch pad for the Neutron rocket located on the southern end of Wallops Island. The estimated 250,000 square foot state-of-the-art complex will be constructed on a 28-acre site adjacent to the Wallops Island Flight Facility and will include a Launch Control Center, Rocket Lab’s fifth global operations center for launch activities and on-orbit operations. To support rapid production of the Neutron rocket, current plans for the complex include automated fiber placement robotic production systems capable of laying up meters of Neutron’s new, specially formulated carbon composite structures in minutes. As a reusable rocket, Neutron is designed to land back on the launch pad after a mission and from there it would be returned to the production complex for refurbishment and re-flight.

The Wallops Island spaceport hopes the state of Virginia will commit $45 million of its own money to this project, but that money still needs to be approved by the state’s legislature.

“Assuming that is done and blessed by the legislature, and we have no reason to believe it will not be, $15 million will go into construction for the facility, and the 30 million will be geared toward the construction of the new launch pad,” Mercer said, noting that the pad would be multi-purpose, not a Neutron exclusive.

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Scientists: Yutu-2 spots tiny glass globules similar to those found by Apollo astronauts

9:45 am

According to a paper just published Chinese scientists running the Yutu-2 rover on the far side of the Moon have spotted several tiny glass globules similar to those found by Apollo astronauts.

Xiao and his team believe the small spheres, which are between 0.59 and 0.79 inches (1.5 to 2.5 centimeters) across, were probably formed by relatively recent meteor impacts. Specifically, the researchers believe that the globules formed from anorthosite, a volcanically-formed rock rich in the mineral feldspar, after a high-energy impact melted the rock and reformed into spheres.

In appearance these Yutu-2 globules appear translucent, unlike the Apollo globules which were either dark or opaque. Since the rover did not do spectroscopy on these objects before moving on, however, their actual make-up is unknown, with the speculations by the researchers above merely that, speculations, though reasonable.

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OneWeb launches from Russia threatened by Russian war in the Ukraine

9:34 am

While all signs suggest that this week’s launch from Kazakhstan of another 36 OneWeb satellites will proceed as planned, later Soyuz-2 launches either from Russia or French Guiana now seem doubtful.

Russia has suspended all further Soyuz-2 launches from French Guiana. And though all the Kazakhstan launches have been paid for and Russia appears willing to proceed, the war has created issues.

But even if Baikonur remains open, it is unclear whether export restrictions could affect the transport of OneWeb satellites from where they are made in Florida to the launchpad in Kazakhstan.

Another potential wrinkle, unrelated to sanctions: OneWeb has traditionally used An-124 aircraft that are operated and maintained by Ukraine’s Antonov to ship its spacecraft overseas. Availability issues aside, airspace restrictions over Europe could complicate otherwise routine logistics.

It will not surprise me if OneWeb will look for other launch services, though this will certainly damage its bottom line. First, it will likely not get a refund from Russia for the Soyuz-2 launches, which means it will pay twice for those launches if it switches to another rocket company. Second, the war is likely going to delay further launches regardless, which will delay roll out of its service and thus prevent it from obtaining customers.

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Russia suggests sanctions will force to end ISS partnership in ’24, rather than ’30

9:16 am

Because of the sanctions imposed by the Biden government due to the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, officials at Roscosmos today suggested that they are considering ending their participation on ISS in 2024, rather than 2030 when NASA wants to de-orbit it.

“Roscosmos currently has a government permission for operating the ISS only until 2024. The issue of extending the agreement in the current conditions causes our skepticism,” the Roscosmos press office said.

The Russian space agency said it hoped that the US Department of State would soon stop its pressure on NASA and allow it to begin a dialogue with Russia. “If we do not come to an agreement, this will have its effect on the international piloted space program,” the press office said.

This really isn’t news. Even before the invasion, Russia had been uncertain on whether it would continue on ISS after ’24. It really needs ISS, as its own effort to build a Russian station has numerous problems. The Russians however also recognize that at least one of its modules on ISS, Zvezda, is failing. The station’s life is limited regardless.

Moreover, the U.S. is shifting away from government-owned assets in space. ISS’s replacement will be privately built and owned, and it is very very unlikely those private companies will partner with Russia.

The Russian partnership at ISS is ending no matter what. The Ukraine war is merely accelerating it.

As for maintaining ISS after ’24 should the Russians leave, NASA has some of the main Russian responsibilities well covered, due to private enterprise. It will test raising the station’s orbit shortly using the Northrop Grumman Cygnus freighter presently docked with the station, thus replacing Russia’s Progress freighter boosts. And the availability of Dragon and Starliner capsules will provide lifeboats for station crews.

The big question is that some of the life support equipment is provided by Russian modules. If the Russians detach the portion of the station, ISS will lose some of those capabilities. Hopefully Axiom’s first ISS module, due to launch by ’24, will replace those Russian assets.

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ESA: ExoMars launch in ’22 “very unlikely” due to Russian invasion of the Ukraine

9:05 am

In a statement yesterday condemning Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine and responding to the Russians’ decision to suspend cooperation with Arianespace in French Guiana, the European Space Agency (ESA) also admitted, almost as an aside, that the ExoMars launch in ’22 to Mars is now “very unlikely.”

That mission is a partnership with Russia, where the Russians provide the rocket and the lander that will put Europe’s Franklin rover on the surface.

For the scientists running ExoMars, this delay only adds to their frustration, as the mission has already been delayed several times, most recently from a ’20 launch because the lander parachutes — being built by ESA — were not ready.

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First delivery of new Starlink terminals arrives in the Ukraine

5:09 pm

The first promised deliver by Elon Musk of new Starlink terminals arrived in the Ukraine today, only two days after promised.

Ukraine digital minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who tagged Musk in a request on Twitter on Saturday, posted that Starlink was “here” in Ukraine — with a photo showing more than two dozen boxes of the company’s user kits in the back of a truck.

Each Starlink kit includes a user terminal to connect to the satellites, a mounting tripod and a Wi-Fi router. It’s not known how many kits SpaceX is sending to support Ukraine.

Fedorov thanked Musk in his tweet; Musk responded: “you are most welcome.”

Ukraine-based Oleg Kutkov tweeted a screenshot of an internet speed test on Monday, saying “Starlink is working in Kyiv” and thanked SpaceX for the company’s support.

Two dozen Starlink terminals is only a drop in the bucket, but with a first delivery this quickly, many more are likely to follow, and make a significant difference in helping the Ukraine block Russia’s invasion.

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Rocket Lab successfully launches Japanese radar satellite

1:56 pm

Capitalism in space: Rocket Lab today successfully completed its first launch in 2022 as well as the first launch from a second launchpad in New Zealand, using its Electron rocket to place in orbit a Japanese commercial radar satellite.

At the moment of writing the upper stage has not yet deployed the satellite, though deployment should happen momentarily. UPDATE: Satellite deployed successfully.

The new launchpad gives Rocket Lab three launchpads, two in New Zealand (both operational) and one in Virginia (delayed due to the NASA bureaucracy but about to go operational).

Rocket Lab is now tied with five other rocket operations, 4 private and 2 government, all with a single launch in ’22. The leaders in the 2022 launch race remain unchanged:

8 SpaceX
4 China
2 Russia

The now U.S. leads China 12 to 4 in the national rankings. At this same point in 2021, the U.S. had only completed 8 launches, so the pace this year is significantly higher. If this pace is maintained, the U.S. will complete 72 launches, which will just break the country’s best previous year of 70 successful launches in 1966. This total would also more than double the average yearly launch total for U.S. since 1966.

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Chandra’s camera remains in safe mode

12:12 pm

Though engineers have improvised a work-around that has allowed most of instruments on the Chandra X-Ray observatory to resume science operations, the power supply problem in the telescope’s high resolution camera (HRC) that occurred on February 9th remains unresolved, leaving that camera in safe mode.

The Chandra science instrument and engineering teams continue to analyze the cause of the HRC power supply issue, as well as potential approaches to enable the HRC again. The spacecraft is otherwise healthy and operating normally.

Chandra has been flying now for more than two decades, well past its original mission. For it to begin to have these problems is not surprising, though it will be a great tragedy if it fails just as the James Webb Space Telescope is about to go operational. Ideally astronomers want data from both, as well as Hubble, to cover a wide swath of the electromagnetic spectrum, from the optical to the infrared to X-rays.

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Today’s blacklisted American: Jan 6th demonstrator apparently commits suicide due to Biden administration persecution

11:23 am

Matthew Perna, dead because he expressed his opinion
Matthew Perna, now dead because he simply expressed an opinion

Blacklists are back and the Democrats have got ’em: Matthew Perna, one of the vast majority of demonstrators who came to the Capitol on January 6, 2021 to peacefully protest the installation of Joe Biden as president, has now apparently committed suicide at the age of 37 because of the Biden administration’s endless persecution, slander, and legal attacks against him.

From his obituary:

He attended the rally on January 6, 2021 to peacefully stand up for his beliefs. After learning that the FBI was looking for him, he immediately turned himself in. He entered the Capitol through a previously opened door (he did not break in as was reported) where he was ushered in by police. He didn’t break, touch, or steal anything. He did not harm anyone, as he stayed within the velvet ropes taking pictures.

For this act he has been persecuted by many members of his community, friends, relatives, and people who had never met him. Many people were quietly supportive, and Matt was truly grateful for them. The constant delays in hearings, and postponements dragged out for over a year. Because of this, Matt’s heart broke and his spirit died, and many people are responsible for the pain he endured. Matt did not have a hateful bone in his body. He embraced people of all races, income brackets, and beliefs, never once berating anyone for having different views.

» Read more

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China successfully launched rockets twice today

8:45 am

China successfully launched two rockets this morning, one a Long March-4C carrying an Earth observation satellite and the second a Long March-8, carrying 22 smallsats.

The Long March-8 is one of China’s next generation rockets, meant to launch from its coastal spaceport and use less toxic fuels. Also, according to the state-run press article, its manufacture process is aimed at allowing for a launch rate of once per week.

The leaders in the 2022 launch race:

8 SpaceX
4 China
2 Russia

The U.S. leads China 11 to 4 in the national rankings.

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