Category: Behind The Black

Yesterday

2:11 pm

Because I have come down with a cold that has sapped my energy, I will let J.J. Sefton sum up my thoughts about what happened yesterday, as well as the last four decades. This is the key quote:

Tragically, a victim who has been identified as a Trump supporter was shot and killed in the chaos and confusion. Now the propagandists, the Democrats, and the GOP are condemning Trump as well as anyone and everyone who voted for or otherwise support him as traitors, engaging in violent treason and sedition. Given everything we have endured this past year and going back into the Obama years and beyond really, that attitude is risible in the extreme. It’s also infuriating beyond my capacity to describe the emotion.

My rage this morning is directed in particular at the GOP. Given everything we have seen and endured, these bastards – with the exception of the handful of patriotic members of the Senate and House who exercised their legitimate Constitutional authority and right to challenge the Electoral College votes – including Vice President Mike Pence stabbed us in the heart. Correction, they along with the state legislatures in question as well as the majority on the Supreme Court stabbed us in the heart weeks if not months ago. Pence et al were just twisting the knife. Meh, it happened the moment President Trump said “so help me G-d” four years ago when the GOP controlled both houses of Congress and sabotaged him at every turn for two years, until Paul Ryno delivered the House to Malig-Nancy Pelosi.

Year after year, election after election, we begged and pleaded with that party to stop what is now inevitable and imminent from happening. I blame them for what happened yesterday. For what happened nine weeks ago. For what has happened to this country for the past 60 years by not opposing the overthrow of America as founded and going along to get along, either out of denial, greed or some combination of both.

I was once in Moscow interviewing a Soviet-era scientist. She was curious about America and asked me some questions. Eventually the conversation turned to freedom, the law, and the Constitution. She, in the typical Russia way, extolled the wonders of Mother Russia. I then made it clear to her that I did not care one whit for the country I lived in. What I cared about was the principles that founded it. I said bluntly, “If the United States abandons those principles it will not be my country any longer.”

I fear we have reached that point.

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Rover update: Curiosity on the shore of a sand sea

1:24 pm

Curiosity stops on the shore of a sand sea, while Yutu-2 continues its journey west away from Chang’e-2. On the way: Perseverance and China’s first Mars rover on Tianwen-1.

A sand sea on Mars
Click for full image.

Curiosity

The photo on the right, taken in late December, shows the large sand lake the science team has labeled “the Sands of Forvie” that the rover has been working its way uphill to reach since it left the Mary Anning drill site back in November.

Since they arrived there, they have used the rover to roll across the sand, cutting into a ripple to expose its interior, followed by high resolution close-up images. They have also used the rover to analyze the chemical composition of the sand’s grains, from that interior section, from the top of several ripples, and from the troughs in between.

Once finished here, the rover will be turned east again to continue its journey around this sand sea to the very base of Mount Sharp. The overview map below shows the planned route.
» Read more

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DARPA cubesats damaged in mishap at SpaceX facility

10:07 am

Though no details have been released, DARPA revealed yesterday that two experimental cubesats being prepared for launch on a SpaceX Falcon 9 were damaged when the payload separation system was accidently activated.

As these were military satellites not much information was revealed by DARPA, and SpaceX made no comment.

Such things do happen rarely, but for SpaceX it is still an embarrassment and a problem. They will certainly have to figure out how this could have happened by accident, and make sure it does not happen again.

Who pays the cost for repair or replacement (more likely) is a tangled question, and will be buried in the launch contracts between DARPA and SpaceX.

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Starship prototype #9 completes first static fire test

10:00 am

Capitalism in space: SpaceX engineers yesterday successfully completed the first static fire test of the ninth prototype of Starship, in preparation for its first 50,000 foot flight.

The SN9 vehicle’s three engines lit up for about one second today (Jan. 6) at 5:07 p.m. EST (2200 GMT) during a static-fire test at SpaceX’s South Texas facilities, near the Gulf Coast village of Boca Chica.

It is possible they will do additional static fire tests before that flight, as they did this with the eighth prototype. It is also possible that all went right in this first test, and they will proceed to launch, as soon as January 8th.

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Margaret Thatcher does “Yes Minister” skit

6:01 pm

An evening pause: Yes Minister was a British comedy show set within the halls of Parliament. In the past year I have posted a number of clips from the show (here, here, here and here) that illustrate how truthfully it skewed the political class.

Today we have a skit with two of the show’s stars performing with the actual prime minister at the time, Margaret Thatcher. She clearly understood the truthful humor of the show, as she explained once during an interview.

Hat tip Andrew Worth.

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A glacier filled canyon on Mars?

11:26 am

Large glacial flow exiting Mamers Valles
Click for full image.

The photo to the right, rotated, cropped, and reduced to post here, was taken on September 9, 2020 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). It shows the northern half of a 15-mile wide canyon on Mars whose floor appears to be completely filled by a glacier. The full picture shows both the north and south rims, and captures the canyon’s outlet from the southern cratered highlands into the chaotic terrain of Deuteronilus Mensae, the region of Mars I like to call glacier country. This region of canyons and mesas forms the transition zone down to the northern lowland plains, and is a region where almost every MRO image shows glacial-type features.

The size and age of this glacial feature is what makes it stand out. First, note the craters on its surface. The glacier has to be quite old and inactive for a long time for those craters to still exist as they appear. Any movement would have distorted them, and they show little distortion.

The overview map below gives a sense of this glacier’s size.
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NASA targets Jan 17th for full static fire test of SLS core stage

8:34 am

After analyzing the data from an aborted fueling dress rehearsal, NASA engineers have decided they understand and have fixed the issue that caused the abort and have now scheduled the full static fire test of SLS’s core stage for January 17th.

NASA conducted the seventh test of the SLS core stage Green Run test series – the wet dress rehearsal – on Dec. 20 at NASA’s Stennis Space Center near Bay St. Louis, Mississippi and marked the first time cryogenic, or super cold, liquid propellant was fully loaded into, and drained from, the SLS core stage’s two immense tanks. The wet dress rehearsal provided structural and environmental data, verified the stage’s cryogenic storage capabilities, demonstrated software with the stage’s flight computers and avionics, and conducted functional checks of all the stage’s systems. The end of the test was automatically stopped a few minutes early due to timing on a valve closure. Subsequent analysis of the data determined the valve’s predicted closure was off by a fraction of a second, and the hardware, software, and stage controller all performed properly to stop the test. The team has corrected the timing and is ready to proceed with the final test of the Green Run series.

…The upcoming hot fire test will fire all four of the stage’s RS-25 engines simultaneously for up to eight minutes to simulate the core stage’s performance during launch. After the firing at Stennis, the core stage for SLS will be refurbished and shipped on the agency’s Pegasus barge to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The stage will then be assembled with the other parts of the rocket and NASA’s Orion spacecraft in preparation for Artemis I, the first integrated flight of SLS and Orion and the first mission of the agency’s Artemis program.

The agency had been hoping to complete this test series before the end of 2020. Whether the delay will effect the planned launch date in November is unclear. I suspect they are already anticipating another postponement, in that this press release strangely makes no mention of that launch date.

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Tianwen-1 to arrive in Mars orbit February 10

4:03 pm

The new colonial movement: China’s space agency, CNSA, today announced that its first Mars orbiter/lander/rover, Tianwen-1, will arrive in Mars orbit on February 10th, with the lander/rover dropping to the surface in May.

After entering orbit, Tianwen-1 will begin to prepare for a landing attempt of the mission’s rover. The orbiter will begin imaging the main candidate landing site within the huge impact basin Utopia Planitia, to the south of NASA’s Viking 2 landing site.

Getting ready for the attempt will take time however, with CNSA stating that the landing won’t take place until May.

At the moment they say that all systems are working as planned, and that they have one more course correction, the fourth, to do before entering orbit.

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Updates on Starship development: next 50K foot flight this weekend?

11:22 am

Two different updates yesterday and today on the development of Starship by SpaceX suggest strongly that the company is aiming for its next test flight to about 50,000 feet as early as this coming weekend.

The second story notes how the company has apparently decided it was not worthwhile keeping much of the debris left over from the crash of the eighth Starship prototype after its successful test flight on December 9th. They have instead focused entirely on clearing the landing pad as quickly as possible, even if it meant destroying some of the prototype’s remains.

The first story outlines the ongoing pressure tests for the ninth prototype, now on the launchpad, and how those tests have so far proceeded very smoothly. All that remains is SpaceX’s standard dress rehearsal countdown ending in a static fire test of the prototype. This is presently scheduled for tomorrow. Once it is accomplished, the test flight can follow quickly, probably no more than a week later, depending on weather, the data from the static fire test, and the innumerable uncertainties that routinely occur in a robust test program such as this.

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China targets 40-plus launches in ’21

3:56 pm

The new colonial movement: China’s space agency announced today that it is aiming to complete at least 40 launches in 2021.

A terse summary of the report in a CASC press release (Chinese) stated that missions related to the Chinese Space Station complex would be among the planned 40-plus launches. Recent reports state that the space station core module will be launched in the coming months, followed by the Tianzhou-2 cargo vessel and Shenzhou-12 crewed missions. The missions will require Long March 5B and Long March 7 launches from Wenchang and a Long March 2F launch from Jiuquan in the Gobi Desert.

Other major highlighted activities include the Tianwen-1 Mars spacecraft, which is due to enter Mars orbit around Feb. 10 with a rover landing attempt to follow in May. Development work will focus on the two experiment modules for the Chinese Space Station and, notably, crewed lunar exploration. No further details on the latter were provided but earlier indications are available.

Assuming they experience no major launch failures, 2021 should be a ground-breaking year for China.

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A Martian “glacier” made of volcanic ash

2:19 pm

A Martian
Click for full image.

Of the numerous cool images I’ve posted on Mars, many have documented the growing evidence that in the mid-latitudes of the Red Planet are many buried glaciers of ice.

Today’s cool image to the right, rotated, cropped and reduced to post here, shows something that at first might resemble the features one would expect from an ice glacier, but in reality is actually a flow of volcanic ash being blown almost like a river, with the prevailing winds blowing from the south to the north.

The photo was taken by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) on November 1, 2020. The location, very close to the equator and in the transition zone dubbed the Cerberus Plains, is also smack dab between Mars’s biggest volcanoes, a region I like to dub Mars’s volcano country. The overview map below gives the context.
» Read more

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Sunspot update: December sunspot activity once again higher than predicted

1:11 pm

The uncertainty of science: It is time to once again take a look at the state of the Sun’s on-going sunspot cycle. Below is NOAA’s January 1, 2021 monthly graph, documenting the Sun’s monthly sunspot activity and annotated by me to show previous solar cycle predictions.

The ramp up to solar maximum continued in December. Though there was a drop from the very high activity seen in November, the number of sunspots in December still far exceeded the prediction as indicated by the red curve.

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Is the ultimate Republican Party failure theater about to happen?

12:30 pm

The dead Constitution

For the past thirty years the Republican Party has been amazingly consistent in almost every political battle put before it by the increasingly leftist and radical Democratic Party. Almost every single time, the leaders of this so-called conservative political party have put on a big show of resisting the leftist and radical proposals put forth by Democrats, only in the end to back down, making a deal that allows those policies to take effect in some manner or another.

I am not sure who originally coined the term, but in recent years this incompetence has often been called “failure theater.” The Republican Party justifies its failures by citing the big theatrical fight they put on. They then promise they will fight harder next time, only to fail again. And again. And again.

This failure theater has been going on repeatedly for decades, since Ronald Reagan was president. Then Donald Trump came along. Unlike the establishment Republicans who ran for president since Reagan (Bush Sr., Dole, Bush Jr., McCain, Romney), Trump generally does not back down easily. He does not participate in failure theater. When he fights he fights to win, which has made the corrupt leadership in the Republican Party very uncomfortable for the past four years.
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Data scientists: In PA more than 400K Trump votes removed during tabulation

9:51 am

A careful review of the tabulation process by data scientists of the tabulation of votes in Pennsylvania during the November 3rd election has found numerous examples, totaling more than 432,000 votes, where Trump’s total went down, even though the tabulation process should never decrease, only stay flat or increase as the votes are counted.

According to an analysis by the Data Integrity Group, obtained exclusively by The Epoch Times, votes for Trump—from both Election Day and mail-in ballots—were removed from the totals in at least 15 counties. Time-series election data shows Trump’s votes decrementing in various counties at numerous time points instead of increasing as would be expected under normal circumstances.

The group said that Election Day vote removals happened during the vote tabulation process in at least 15 counties, including Lehigh County, Chester County, Allegheny County, Armstrong County, Westmoreland County, Northhampton County, Delaware County, Montgomery County, Lackawanna County, Dauphin County, Pike County, Carbon County, Washington County, Erie County, and Luzerne County. Meanwhile, absentee vote removals happened in Allegheny County, Chester County, and Lehigh County.

At least 432,116 votes—213,707 election day votes and 218,409 absentee votes—were removed in total.

“There were vote movements across all candidates. However, we did not see the same type of negative decrements to any of the [other] candidates that we saw with President Trump’s tallies, and they happened repeatedly with no explanation,” Lynda McLaughlin, a member of the group, told The Epoch Times.

The video at the link shows this widespread activity very clearly.

The removal of a handful of votes here and there might make sense, as election officials review the ballots and reject some for various legitimate reasons. Such action however should only remove a small number, and the changes will normally occur for both candidates. For so many votes to be removed solely from one candidate, Trump, is beyond suspicious. Moreover, election officials have so far failed to provide any reasonable explain these subtractions.

The most damning aspect of these findings, along with similar findings in Georgia and Arizona, is the unwillingness and even outright stonewalling by election officials to investigate anything. If these vote removals are justified, one would think they would move quickly to allow others to examine the data closely, and provide detailed explanations for them all.

Instead, they stonewall, resist, and block any investigation.

And in Georgia, where the state legislature has mandated a forensic audit, shots have now been fired at the auditors.

The election was stolen. Whether you voted for Trump or Biden it matters not. It now appears that government officials can and will manipulate the vote totals to make sure their choice wins every time. Your vote no longer means anything.

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Eleven senators announce decision to challenge election results

11:43 am

A group of eleven senators, led by Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) today announced that they will challenge the election results in the disputed states, demanding that Congress set up a commission to investigate the results and prove them legitimate before certification. From their statement:

To wit, Congress should immediately appoint an Electoral Commission, with full investigatory and fact-finding authority, to conduct an emergency 10-day audit of the election returns in the disputed states. Once completed, individual states would evaluate the Commission’s findings and could convene a special legislative session to certify a change in their vote, if needed.

“Accordingly, we intend to vote on January 6 to reject the electors from disputed states as not ‘regularly given’ and ‘lawfully certified’ (the statutory requisite), unless and until that emergency 10-day audit is completed.

This group joins Senator Josh Hawley (R-Kansas), who has already announced he will vote against certification, and about 140 House Representatives, who have said the same.

Their statement is thoughtful and detailed, not an emotional soundbite. It also states the following:

We are not naïve. We fully expect most if not all Democrats, and perhaps more than a few Republicans, to vote otherwise. But support of election integrity should not be a partisan issue. A fair and credible audit-conducted expeditiously and completed well before January 20-would dramatically improve Americans’ faith in our electoral process and would significantly enhance the legitimacy of whoever becomes our next President. We owe that to the People.

These are matters worthy of the Congress, and entrusted to us to defend. We do not take this action lightly. We are acting not to thwart the democratic process, but rather to protect it. And every one of us should act together to ensure that the election was lawfully conducted under the Constitution and to do everything we can to restore faith in our Democracy. [emphasis mine]

That election integrity is now a partisan issue is the real problem. There are more than enough reasonable allegations and evidence suggesting widespread fraud in the disputed states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona, and no election should be accepted until those allegations are investigated properly. Otherwise no one is ever going to trust any election again.

And it does not matter who wins. If a proper investigation debunks the allegations and calls Biden the winner, then so be it. Our goal should not be keeping Trump in office, but to make sure the voting process is fair, honest, and reliable.

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Data Scientists: Outright fraud in Georgia election

11:23 am

Below is the testimony this week in front of the Georgia state senate from three data scientists analyzing the Dominion computer systems and the November 3rd raw vote tally data. Watch it, please. As one of the three scientists bluntly said,

There was fraud in Georgia’s election. We can prove it with data. and because we can prove it with data the voting will of the voters of Georgia is not reflected in what was certified by the secretary of state.

They found three very shocking facts. First and most important, in a system that should only be tabulating votes, so that the numbers only go up, they found more than forty examples where the numbers for Trump went down. As another scientist noted, “There is no reason that at any point that something should be subtracted.”

Worse, they also found that Biden’s numbers would then go up at the same time, by the exact same amount. The total votes affected exceeded 200K.

In other words, votes were being switched.

Second, they found that the computer system too easily allows a human access to the data, and worse, permits that human to make wholesale changes, with no oversight. Their testimony confirmed previous video evidence by one election supervisor in other testimony.

Third, they found that the Dominion system was specifically designed to destroy the original ballot whenever that ballot was reviewed and its vote adjusted or changed by that human. This means that any later audit is worthless, as it cannot go back and compare the original vote with the final software vote.

I found out about this particular testimony from a report by Dilbert cartoonist, Scott Adams, who after watching it concluded, “Looks like Trump won.”

After this and other testimony, including another computer expert who during the testimony was able to hack into the Dominion systems presently tabulating on-going polling for the senate, even though we have been told this was impossible, it is very clear that the results from the Georgia November election are untrustworthy, likely fraudulent.

At a minimum they must be reviewed entirely. More properly, they should be decertified.

This evidence also raises legitimate questions about the totals tabulated by Dominion machines in any other state.

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Auld Land Syne – Freedom mix

6:01 pm

An evening pause: This mix was apparently put together just after 9/11, and includes many of the most iconic sound-bites from the 20th century. One of the last lines however must speak to the new 21st century, as it appears many Americans have forgotten what it means to be an American.

“We’re not gonna be stopped! We’re not gonna be deterred! We’re not gonna stay at home! We’re not gonna be afraid!

“We’re gonna live our lives as Americans!”

God bless. Let us work to return freedom to America in 2021.

Auld Lang Syne – (Freedom mix) from Don Krasley on Vimeo.

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The state of the global rocket industry in the 21st century

12:23 pm

With the year of 2020 coming to an end, it is time to look back to see how the world’s rocket industry fared in what was a truly difficult year for most. And with the 21st century now one fifth over, it is also time to take a wider view, to see what the trends have been for space exploration during this new century, and to see where those trends might lead.

Below is my annual updated table showing all successful orbital launches by every nation and company, beginning in 2000. While the table in my 2019 report last year had gone back to 1990, I decided to shorten the graph to just the 21st Century, in order to better focus on that century in particular.

» Read more

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Musk: Super Heavy will land on launchpad, caught by launch tower

9:16 am

Capitalism in space: In a series of tweets yesterday SpaceX founder Elon Musk revealed that the company is considering landing Starship’s first stage, Super Heavy, on its launchpad but rather than use landing legs it will be caught by the launch tower.

Instead, Musk says that SpaceX might be able to quite literally catch Super Heavy in mid-air, grabbing the booster before it can touch the ground by somehow slotting an elaborate “launch tower arm” underneath its steel grid fins. Although such a solution sounds about as complex and risky as it gets, it would technically preclude the need for any and all booster recovery infrastructure – even including the legs Super Heavy would otherwise need.

While true, catching Super Heavy by its grid fins would likely demand that control surfaces and the structures they attach to be substantially overbuilt – especially if Musk means that the crane arm mechanism would be able to catch anywhere along the deployed fins’ 7m (23 ft) length. Even more importantly, it seems extraordinarily unlikely that such a complex and unproven recovery method could be made to work reliably on the first one or several tries, implying that early boosters will still need some kind of rudimentary landing legs.

The idea is to save weight on the booster. It also would speed its reuse, as there would no longer be a need to transport it from a landing pad back to the launchpad.

Whether this will work will depend on the accuracy of SpaceX’s vertical landing software. That the company has repeatedly proven, from almost the first time it tried it, that it can bring its rockets down exactly where it intends suggests they will be able to be as accurate as necessary.

Nonetheless, expect more than a few launchpad crashes as they work out the kinks on another audacious engineering concept.

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The seasonal cloud over Arsia Mons on Mars

9:21 pm

Water-ice cloud over Arsia Mons
The cloud as seen in 2018.

Scientists have now documented the seasonal nature of the strangely elongated cloud that was first spotted in 2018 above the giant volcano Arsia Mons (the southernmost volcano of the three volcanoes east of Olympus Mons).

From their abstract:

We find that the AMEC [Arsia Mons Elongated Cloud] repeated regularly each morning for a number of months, and that it is an annually‐repeating phenomenon that takes place every Martian Year around the southern hemisphere spring and summer. The AMEC follows a rapid daily cycle: it starts to expand from Arsia Mons at dawn at an altitude of about ∼45 km, and for ∼2.5 hours it expands westward as fast as 170 m/s (around 600 km/h). The cloud then detaches from Arsia Mons and evaporates before noon. In previous Martian Years, few observations of this phenomenon are available because most cameras orbiting Mars are placed in orbits where they can only observe during the afternoon, whereas this cloud takes place in the early morning, when observational coverage is much lower.

They also state that they will outline their theories as to the cause of the cloud in a follow-up paper.

I can’t help wondering if it is related to other evidence that suggested past glacial activity on the western flanks of Arsia Mons. There are many pits surrounding this volcano, and many might contain residue ice. One wonders if, during the warm spring and summer months at dawn the arrival of the sun might cause this cloud to form, and then vanish as the day passes, just like the dew does on Earth.

That is my uneducated guess, and likely wrong. We shall have to wait for their theoretical paper for a more educated guess.

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Surprisingly low number of observation proposals from astronomers for Webb telescope

4:03 pm

In preparation for the launch of the James Webb Space Telescope in ’21, the Space Telescope Science Institute (STScI) that will operate it has begun accepting observation proposals from astronomers, and has apparently discovered that the number of proposals, dubbed the subscription rate, is surprisingly low.

The stats of the James Webb space telescope cycle 1 proposal round came in the other day. In summary: an over subscription rate of 1:4. A little less even.

There was immediate spin how the stats were a good thing. Enthusiasm from around the globe! So many investigators! But that does not change that the 1:4 oversubscription is a disappointment. If I were part of the project, this would and should worry me.

If they got exactly the right number of proposals to precisely use all of the telescope’s observation time, the subscription rate would be 1. An oversubscription rate of 1.4 seems good, but in truth it is tiny compared to Hubble and other space telescopes, and horrible considering the cost of Webb (almost $10 billion, 20x what it was originally budgeted).

The author at the link provides some technical reasons for the low interest, some of which are the fault of the Webb management team (such as a very complicated proposal process) and some that are beyond their control (the Wuhan panic). He also provides suggestions that might help.

Either way, the relatively low interest I think is rooted in Webb’s initial genesis. It was pushed by the cosmological community and its design thus optimized for studying the early universe. Other astronomical fields were pushed aside or given a lower priority so that the telescope does not serve them as well.

The result is that a lot of astronomers have been finding other more appropriate and already functioning telescopes to do their work, bypassing Webb entirely. They are probably also bypassing Webb because it seems foolish to spend the inordinate amount of time putting together a proposal for a telescope a decade behind schedule that carries an enormous risk of failure once it is launched.

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Witness announces his team has hacked Georgia election runoff polling machines

1:53 pm

During testimony today in Georgia investigating the possibility of election fraud on November 3rd, a witness announced that his team at that very moment had hacked into the voting machines being used for the Georgia senate runoff races and was communicating with the machines.

During a Senate hearing in Georgia over fraud in the 2020 presidential election, Jovan Pulitzer told the senate members, “At this very moment at a polling location in the county, not only do we now have access to the devices through the poll pad — the system — but we are in.”

Pulitzer told the senators this should not be able to happen, but his team was has able to hack into the voting system and has documented evidence to prove it. Pulitzer said the machines are connected to the internet and two-way communication is occurring in real-time. “It’s receiving data and sending data,” he said.

When questioned, Pulitzer said the polling place his team hacked into is a physical location, not a mobile station. Pulitzer said his team has access to the data from the Georgia Senate runoff race from the polling station.

The article provides a link to his testimony. This proves that the owners of Dominion have been lying when they say their machines are not connected to the internet. It also shows how easy it would be to falsify the results. As the witness noted, if you can download the data from the machines you can change it and then upload it again, and if no one suspected you were doing it (or was willfully blind to your tampering) no one would ever find out.

All election results in Georgia are thus suspect. If nothing is done, that I would be astonished if either Republican candidates won their run-offs.

In fact, I think this comedy movie clip provides a perfect description of our modern American culture:

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