Category: Behind The Black

No launch of Starship/Superheavy until February?

10:15 am

Superheavy still going strong, shortly after Max-Q
Superheavy still going strong, shortly after Max-Q,
during April test launch

In an email statement released on October 19, 2023 by the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and reported by Bloomberg news today, FWS decided to initiate a ” a formal review of the upgrades SpaceX has made to its Starship launch system”, beginning on October 5.

Most of the Bloomberg article is behind a paywall, but the second paragraph is really the key quote:

The FWS now has as long as 135 days to create an updated biological opinion about how Starship and its launches impact the local environment, however the agency does not “expect to take the full amount of time,” a representative said in the statement.

If FWS does take the full time period, no launch can occur before February. Nor should anyone naively believe its statement that it does not expect to take the full amount of time. For example, SpaceX completed installation of its upgraded Starship/Superheavy launch system, including the water deluge equipment at its base, in early August. Why did Fish and Wildlife wait till now, almost three months later, to begin its review?
» Read more

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Russia’s Soyuz-2 rocket launches military satellite

9:40 am

Russia today used its Soyuz-2 rocket to launch a classified military surveillance satellite, lifting off from its Plesetsk spacesport in northern Russia.

A graphic at the link shows the rocket’s flight path crossed over almost all of Russia as it flew east, with its lower stages and fairings crashing on land. Though the drop zones were inside Russia, there are very isolated regions in the high Arctic latitudes, with few inhabited areas.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

76 SpaceX
48 China
14 Russia
7 Rocket Lab
7 India

American private enterprise still leads China 88 to 48 in successful launches, and the entire world combined 88 to 77. SpaceX by itself now trails with the rest of the world (excluding American companies) 76 to 77.

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Belén Bandera & Carla Motis – El Testament d’Amèlia

6:01 pm

An evening pause: From Wikipedia: “El testament d’Amèlia is a popular Catalan folk song. It tells the story of a young lady in her deathbed who knowingly drank the poisoned drink given to her by her stepmother, whom she knows has been sleeping with her husband.”

Hat tip Judd Clark.

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October 26, 2023 Quick space links

3:43 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay.

 

 

 

 

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Pushback: Fired director of college’s Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion department accuses movement of promoting bigotry

2:31 pm

Tabia Lee
Tabia Lee, fighter for freedom and a
color-blind society

They’re coming for you next: Tabia Lee, a black woman who was fired as faculty director for the Office of Equity, Social Justice, and Education [OESE] at De Anza College in California has, as promised, refused to go quietly.

As I reported in March, Lee was fired because she took the word “inclusion” literally, trying to establish a color-blind policy that would provide some aid and comfort to the Jewish students on campus who were experiencing almost daily incidents of harassment and bigotry, simply because they were Jewish.

Her reward? She was herself harassed, with some calling her a “dirty Zionist,” then denied tenure, then fired.

Since then she has not gone quietly into that good night. In July Lee suited De Anza College, as well as ten specific school officials, charging the school violated her First Amendment rights, California’s Constitution, and its Common Law in censoring and firing her.

Her name came up again this week because she wrote a blistering op-ed for the New York Post, blasting not only De Anza for its racist DEI policies, but blasting the entire “Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion” movement as nothing more that a Nazi-like movement promoting bigotry and hate.
» Read more

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The icy terrain near one of Starship’s prime candidate landing spots on Mars

1:35 pm

The icy terrain near Starship's prime landing spot on Mars
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped to post here, was taken on August 22, 2023 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). The camera team labeled the picture a “terrain sample,” which generally means it was not taken as part of any scientist’s specific research request, but to fill a gap in the schedule so as to maintain the camera’s proper temperature. When the team needs to do this, they try to pick a location in the gap that might have some interesting features. Sometimes such pictures show relatively boring features. Sometimes the results are fascinating.

In this case the location chosen was in the northern lowland plains of Mars, in a region called Amazonis Planitia. At 38 degrees north latitude it is not surprising that the photo shows ice features. All the depressions here appear to have an eroding glacier, while the surrounding plateau resembles an untouched snow field in the very early spring, the snow beginning to sublimate away to leave the top rough and stuccoed. Note too that these depressions are likely not impact craters (they have no upraised rims and many are distorted in shape), but were likely formed by that same sublimation process.
» Read more

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New data better maps the supernova remnant SN1006

10:50 am

SN1006, as seen in X-rays
Click for original image.

Using data from both the Chandra X-ray Observatory and the Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE), scientists have now better mapped the magnetic field and the remnant from the supernova that occurred in 1006 AD.

The false color image to the right shows this data. From the caption:

The red, green, and blue elements reflect low, medium, and high energy X-rays, respectively, as detected by Chandra. The IXPE data, which measure the polarization of the X-ray light, is show in purple in the upper left corner, with the addition of lines representing the outward movement of the remnant’s magnetic field.

From the press release:

Researchers say the results demonstrate a connection between the magnetic fields and the remnant’s high-energy particle outflow. The magnetic fields in SN 1006’s shell are somewhat disorganized, per IXPE’s findings, yet still have a preferred orientation. As the shock wave from the original explosion passes through the surrounding gas, the magnetic fields become aligned with the shock wave’s motion. Charged particles are trapped by the magnetic fields around the original point of the blast, where they quickly receive bursts of acceleration. Those speeding high-energy particles, in turn, transfer energy to keep the magnetic fields strong and turbulent.

At present scientists really do not understand the behavior of stellar-sized magnetic fields. It is very complex, involving three dimensional movements that are hard to measure, as well as electromagnetic processes that are not well understood. While this new data doesn’t provide an explanation, it does tell us better what is actually happening. The theories will follow.

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Australia and the U.S. agree to facilitate rocket launches in Australia

10:37 am

A technology agreement announced on October 25, 2023 between Australia and the U.S. included language that will allow for American rocket companies to launch from Australia, as well as Australian rocket companies to launch American satellites.

According to the White House statement, the agreement…

…provides the legal and technical framework for U.S. commercial space launch vehicles to launch from Australia in a manner that: protects sensitive U.S. launch technology and data in Australia consistent with our shared nonproliferation goals; and creates the potential for new space-related commercial opportunities.

A private Australian spaceport, Equatorial Launch Australia (ELA), has been working to bring U.S. launches there. In addition, an Australian rocket startup, Gilmour Space, wants to launch American payloads. This new government agreement is supposed to facilitate both.

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Rocket Lab expects to resume Electron launches before end of year

10:26 am

Following September 2023 launch failure of its Electron rocket, Rocket Lab now says it has obtained a launch approval from the FAA, and expects to resume Electron launches before end of year.

In the company’s October 25, 2023 press release, it stated the following:

The FAA, the federal licensing body for U.S. launch vehicles, has now confirmed that Rocket Lab’s launch license remains active, which is the first step to enable launches to resume. Rocket Lab is now finalizing a meticulous review into the anomaly’s root cause, a process that involves working through an extensive fault tree to exhaust all potential causes for the anomaly, as well as completing a comprehensive test campaign to recreate the issue on the ground. The FAA is providing oversight of Rocket Lab’s mishap investigation to ensure Rocket Lab complies with its FAA-approved mishap investigation plan and other regulatory requirements. In addition, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) was granted official observer status to the investigation. The full review is expected to be completed in the coming weeks, with Rocket Lab currently anticipating a return to flight later this quarter with corrective measures in place.

Though the FAA is apparently not trying to slow things down, this release gives us a hint at how the new so-called streamlined regulations established this year are actually making things harder. These regulations force the FAA to get more involved in making sure the company has done all due diligence, something the FAA really isn’t qualified to do. To meet these demands, companies now apparently have to jump through many new hoops to satisfy the new regulations.

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ABL preparing for second launch attempt of its RS1 rocket

10:09 am

ABL's redesigned rocket launch mount
ABL’s redesigned rocket launch mount

Since its first test launch of its RS1 rocket failed in January 2023, ABL has spent the last ten months doing major revisions of the rocket’s launch mount as well as preparing an upgraded new rocket for a second test launch attempt, expected in the coming months.

This information comes from a long update posted by the company’s CEO, Harry O’Hanley on October 25, 2023.

It appears failure occurred because of a fire at the base of the rocket after liftoff, which in turn was caused by the small size of the rocket’s launch mount.

By analyzing video and data, we formulated a leading theory behind the source of the fire. Our hypothesis centered around the Launch Mount, which is the GS0 assembly that raises and lowers the vehicle. It was designed to fit fully assembled inside a shipping container. While this made transport simple, it resulted in the rocket being held close to the ground.

We believe the compact Launch Mount and proximity of RS1 to the ground restricted the flow of engine exhaust gas. This caused plume recirculation and drove pressures and temperatures beneath the rocket to exceed the RS1 base heat shield design capability. The hot combustion gases breached the aft heat shield and initiated the engine compartment fire. We corroborated this theory with a variety of tests and analyses, including multi-species CFD performed both in-house and by an independent partner.

The graphic to the right, rearranged and annotated to post here, shows the new larger mount. Because of the time it has taken to make that launch mount upgrade, the company also decided to fly its next version of RS1 on this second test launch, rather than the backup rocket from the first launch. This upgraded RS1 has 20% more thrust with a detachable engine section that makes access to it much easier.

O’Hanley made no mention of a specific target launch date from the Kodiak spaceport in Alaska, but his post implies the launch is coming very soon.

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Further data adds weight to the dust outburst theory for explaining Betelgeuse’s dimming in 2019

9:42 am

Betelqeuse
An optical image of Betelgeuse taken in 2017 by a ground-based
telescope, showing its not unusual aspherical shape.
Click for original image.

Further analysis of the data gathered from Beteleguese during its unusual dimming in 2019 to 2020, has now strengthened the hypothesis that the dimming was caused by an outburst of dust from the star, creating a cloud that temporarily blocked its light.

Although the star as a whole appeared to darken, Betelgeuse’s photosphere seemed to actually brighten during the event. The Université Côte d’Azur astronomers say this observation is consistent with a likely theory, supported by observations, that Betelgeuse dimmed from our view due to a burst of dust, in the form of silicon monoxide, coming from the star. In turn, that burst might be related to a sudden cooling of the star’s surface.

“The changes in the structure of the photosphere and the silicon monoxide are consistent with both the formation of a cold spot on the star’s surface and the ejection of a cloud of dust,” the statement reads.

This new data also suggests that this dimming did not presage the star going supernova, but was simply part of the star’s normal fluctuations. Betelgeuse is essentially a giant gasbag that actually pulses not only in light but in shape. In a sense it behaves exactly like a blob of water floating in weightlessness.

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Russian astronauts locate coolant leak on spacewalk

9:29 am

Coolant leak on Nauka radiator

In an almost eight hour spacewalk yesterday, two Russian astronauts were able to locate the source of the coolant leak on a radiator unit connected to the new Nauka module on the Russian half of ISS.

The image to the right, a screen capture from the live stream, shows the leak location, where a small white droplet sits on one of the coolant lines that connect two radiator panels. You can also see darkening on the tubes to either side, likely also caused by the leaking ammonia. To locate it ground controllers opened valves to let coolant into the line while the astronauts watched for changes, and were able to see the coolant come out of this spot.

One astronaut also noted the following during the inspection:

[B]efore noticing the growing deposit of liquid coolant, Kononenko reported seeing a myriad of small holes on the surface of the radiator’s panels. “The holes have very even edges, like they’ve been drilled through,” Kononenko radioed to the flight controllers working in Moscow Mission Control. “There are lots of them. They are spread in a chaotic manner.”

In the past year similar coolant leaks have occurred on both a Progress freighter and a Soyuz manned capsule, with the leak location in almost the exact same spot, suggesting an intentional cause, not a random micrometeorite hit. This coolant leak in Nauka is on equipment that was launched to ISS in 2010. If it was also drilled, whoever did it did so a long time ago, which implies Russia has a long standing saboteur within its operations.

This conclusion however remains wild speculation. In the dozen-plus years since launch, this radiator has been stored on the outside of ISS, where it could easily have been hit by micrometeorites that would cause those holes and this leak.

The plan is to consider some repair operation on future spacewalks. In the 1980s the Russians did something similar, with astronauts doing six spacewalks to replace a section of fuel line that was leaking on its Salyut-7 station. They cut open its hull and installed a second section of line so that the valves could remove leaking section from operations.

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China launches new three-man crew to its Tiangong-3 space station

9:02 am

The new colonial movement: China today successfully used its Long March 2F rocket to place a Shenzhou manned capsule into orbit, carrying a new three-man crew to its Tiangong-3 space station and lifting off from its Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China.

Though relatively little specific information about the crew’s mission has been revealed, it is expected they will do a six month mission, as have previous crews, and conduct spacewalks and maintenance on the station. Meanwhile, the present crew on board will spend about a week transferring duties to the new crew, and then return to Earth after completing its own six-month mission.

No word on where the Long March 2F first stage and its four side boosters crashed in the interior of China, all of which use toxic hypergolic fuels.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

76 SpaceX
48 China
13 Russia
7 Rocket Lab
7 India

American private enterprise still leads China 88 to 48 in successful launches, and the entire world combined 88 to 76. SpaceX by itself is now tied at 76 with the rest of the world (excluding American companies).

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October 25, 2023 Quick space links

3:25 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay.

 

 

  • Tiangong-3 solar panel hit by “small space debris”

    • According to this tweet, the damage was “predicted and controllable”, which really tells us nothing. All space stations in orbit experience micrometeorite hits, often very tiny. Anything larger is significant. If this impact was the latter they should release more information.

 

 

 

 

 

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The hull of Axiom’s first space station module nears completion

1:44 pm

The hull of Axiom’s first space station module is nearing completion, according to officials of the Italian company Thales Alenia Space that is building it.

“The first module shell is effectively completed,” Jason Aspiotis, Axiom’s director of in-space infrastructure and logistics, said at AIAA’s Ascend conference here on Oct. 23. “A lot of the subsystems that will populate the underlying structure–think about life support systems, avionics, propulsion, [guidance, navigation and control systems], power, communications, all that good stuff–we’re developing in a lab in Houston.” Hab One hatches have also been fabricated, tested and prepared for delivery to Thales Alenia Space to support Hab One pressure testing, the company says.

The first module is to be shipped to Houston by 2024 for final assembly and integration at Axiom Space’s factory at Ellington Airport. The company plans to launch the Hab One module in 2026.

Based on this news report, Axiom’s schedule has not experienced any further delays since it pushed back the launch from 2024 in June.

The article also says, almost as an aside, that ISS is planned for decommission “in 2031”, which is one year later than any previous report I’ve seen. I suspect this is correct, but is information that NASA really didn’t want revealed to the public as yet, as it had enough trouble convincing its international European and Japanese partners to stay on until 2030. Moreover, there remains serious concerns the older Russian modules themselves might fail before then, based on the number of stress fractures found in their hulls, so admitting NASA hopes to keep the station flying till ’31 will appear questionable at best.

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Swirling galactic-sized streams surrounding a pair of supermassive black holes

1:25 pm

Swirling galactic arms surrounding two supermassive black holes

Time for another galactic cool image! The picture to the right, reduced and sharpened to post here, was released today by the Gemini South ground-based telescope in Chile. It shows the streams of gas and stars that swirl around a pair of supermassive black holes at the center of this galaxy, located only 90 million light years away.

The image reveals vast swirling bands of interstellar dust and gas resembling freshly-spun cotton candy as they wrap around the merging cores of the progenitor galaxies. From the aftermath has emerged a scattered mix of active starburst regions and sedentary dust lanes encircling the system.

What is most noteworthy about NGC 7727 is undoubtedly its twin galactic nuclei, each of which houses a supermassive black hole, as confirmed by astronomers using the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope (VLT). Astronomers now surmise the galaxy originated as a pair of spiral galaxies that became embroiled in a celestial dance about one billion years ago. Stars and nebulae spilled out and were pulled back together at the mercy of the black holes’ gravitational tug-of-war until the irregular tangled knots we see here were created.

The black holes themselves are 154 and 6.3 million solar masses respectively, and are presently about 1,600 light years apart. Scientists calculate that they will merge in about 250 million years. Each once formed the center of its own galaxy. Now both galaxies have merged, creating this three-dimensional whirlpool of arms.

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Boeing losses total almost a billion dollars this quarter

1:15 pm

The hits to Boeing keep coming: In addition to the $1.5 billion it has had to write-off because of problems with its Starliner capsule, Boeing is now reporting losses in the third quarter totaling almost a billion dollars, with half those losses coming from overruns on its fixed price contract to provide Air Force One to the U.S. government.

The $482 million loss on the high-profile presidential plane was due to “higher estimated manufacturing costs related to engineering changes, labor instability and the resolution of supplier negotiations,” Boeing Chief Financial Officer Brian West said during the company’s third-quarter earnings call Wednesday.

Boeing has faced numerous problems with the VC-25B program, including shortages of workers and parts, that have delayed delivery of the first of two Air Force One jets until 2027. To date, the company has lost over $2.4 billion on the program, according to a company spokesperson. CEO Dave Calhoun said last year that Boeing should have never agreed to the fixed $3.9 billion price tag.

The second-largest contributor to losses for Boeing’s Defense, Space & Security (BDS) business was a satellite program that cost the company $315 million in the third quarter. The company wouldn’t identify the program, but West said the loss is “tied to customer considerations and higher estimated cost to deliver a highly innovative satellite constellation contract that we signed several years ago.” [emphasis mine]

Let me translate what CEO Calhoun was really saying in the highlighted sentence: “We want a blank check! Boeing is incapable of producing anything based upon a standard fixed price, and wants the federal government to go back to open-ended cost-plus contracts that put no limit to overruns and schedule delays.”

Whether Boeing gets that blank check or not really depends on Boeing. It is very possible our corrupt legislators in Congress — who think money grows on trees — will bring these cost-plus contract back, but I doubt Boeing will win many such contracts in the near future, based on its horrible performance on all levels technically. It needs to completely clean house, with major shake-ups in management and staff, as whoever is working there now is simply doing a terrible job.

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Has the tide actually turned?

12:53 pm

Winston Churchill, who recognized you can't negotiate with mass murderers
Winston Churchill, who understood you can never
negotiate with mass murderers

My essay yesterday on the present unstable world situation — sparked by the murderous attack by Hamas on Israel — opened with a noteably pessimistic conclusion:

In the past week, it seems more and more that appeasement is the watchword of the day.

I had come to this conclusion by citing two unfolding events, first Israel’s seemingly endless delays in initiating its promised invasion of Gaza to destroy Hamas, and second, the apparent decision by Republicans in the House of Representatives to choose as their pick for speaker Tom Emmer, the only man running who denied any voter tampering and election fraud in the 2020 election and who also had been a spokesman for an organization funded by George Soros, making him clearly an untrustworthy person to lead conservatives.

One day later there are signs that my pessimism might have been premature. First, the Republicans in the House finally came together today to elect a speaker, choosing Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana), a man who appears not only wholly different than Emmer but in fact almost all Republican speakers since Newt Gingrich. Unlike the moderates of the past three decades, Johnson is a strongly conservative man (pro-life, opposes the queer agenda, skeptical of too much aid to the Ukraine). Maybe the best sense of his fighting spirit is gained from his comments in 2020, when he actually noted Nancy Pelosi’s violation of the law when she tore up the original of Donald Trump’s state of the union speech in January 2020.

Thus, Republican voters might finally have a speaker in the House who is more allied with their goals than the corrupt goals of the establishment based in Washington, DC. The battle itself over the speakership further suggests that the establishment itself is losing power over the Republican Party. In the end the only viable candidates that remained were all Trump supporters who had repeatedly opposed the endless continuing resolutions that the Republican leadership has forever given to its Democratic Party allies.

We shall see however. In matters of politics it always pays to never get too enthusiastic about any positive development, as for the past six decades the positive has too often quickly turned negative.

Next there is the situation in Israel. » Read more

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