Category: Behind The Black

Overall U.S. death rate is at a multi-year LOW

1:36 pm

Despite the panic over the Wuhan virus, it now appears that the overall U.S. death rate this winter season is at a multi-year low, no worse than 2014, 2016, and 2019, and far better than 2015, 2017, and 2018 (when we were hit with one of the worst flu seasons in years).

The article at the link for one example cites the totals for the first week in April:

On April 5th, the U.S. saw 1,344 COVID-19 deaths, as the number of cases in the U.S. accelerated. The overall number of deaths in the U.S., or the crude death rate did not show a correlated rise.

At the very least, this data shows we need to analyze COVID-19 deaths in the context of the broader U.S. mortality rate from all causes. It appears normal deaths are being attributed to COVID-19 if the patient is COVID-19+, even if another underlying chronic cause is responsible.

It then includes a graph showing the total deaths since 2014, plotted weekly. This year is remarkably ho-hum. The last two years were far worse. Go to the link and look at the graph for yourself if you have doubts.

Nor should anyone have ever been surprised by these numbers, even three months ago. All the evidence on the ground about COVID-19, once it had escaped from China and reliable data could begin to be gathered, suggested strongly that its general attack on humans was similar to the flu. Younger people were hardly bothered by it. Instead, it killed the old and sick. Since those people can’t die twice, it is manifestly obvious that we should have expected the overall numbers to not go up much.

Which is exactly what has happened.

Moreover, the panic over the Wuhan flu caused people to social distance themselves, which certainly acted to cause a drop in all infectious diseases. This might explain this year’s lower numbers, but it must also be noted that the drop in 2020 is not really that significant, illustrating again the pointlessness of all these preventative measures. You really can’t run from infectious diseases. They are going to spread through the population regardless. Only if it appears the disease is attacking the young should extreme measures be taken.

To put it bluntly, our elected leaders in Washington and in statehouses across the country, working in tandem with the incompetent (but well-paid) bureaucrats in Washington and with a overly emotional and partisan press willing to say any lie in order to attack Donald Trump, have caused what might turn out to be another great depression, for absolutely no reason at all.

In the process they have also acted to nullify the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, working as hard as they could to destroy the freest nation in the history of the world, and the most successful because of that freedom.

Are you enraged yet? And are you going to do something about it in November?

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Wuhan panic wipes out NY restaurant business

3:54 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: Because of the government shut down caused by the panic over the Wuhan virus, the entire New York city restaurant business, one of that city’s most important industries, is now facing closure and bankruptcy, with many stores boarding up their windows and going out of business.

Most restaurants are completely shuttered. Many that tried takeout and delivery ended their operations for fear of their employees and customers’ safety. Those that are still trying to make it work are unsustainably earning a fraction of what they normally would make. Federal Small Business Administration loans have yet to hit most bank accounts, and the programs have already run out of money. Even California, which is far ahead of New York in containing the virus, will reduce capacity in restaurants when the shutdown finally lifts, a move that many restaurateurs say will likely hurt businesses as they attempt to recover from the crisis.

The first sign of longer term decline is here: the boarded up storefront. Common during the lead-up to hurricanes to prevent flying debris from smashing up windows, plywood is otherwise used to minimize the risks of burglaries and looting. Will it get that bad? No owner that we reached out to would openly acknowledge it. But as the crisis drags on indefinitely, restaurants are starting to close permanently and unemployment continues to skyrocket. Some restaurateurs are taking a preventative tact in case the economic impact takes an even deeper turn.

The article talks about government help, but there isn’t enough money in the universe capable of covering these losses if the government shut downs continue much longer.

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Study suggests COVID-19 death rate is far less than presently reported, comparable to flu

3:47 pm

The uncertainty of science: A California large-scale study of COVID-19 anti-bodies in the general population has found that the infection rate for the Wuhan virus could be 50 to 85 times higher than present counts, which would mean that the death rate is actually quite low, comparable to the flu.

The results of the study are preliminary and not peer-reviewed, but the general takeaways would seem to strongly contribute to the notion that there have been a large number of COVID-19 cases that went undetected.

Due to questions over the antibody tests’ efficacy, researchers adjusted for test performance characteristics by using the test manufacturer’s data and a sample of controls tested at Stanford University. Again, the results are preliminary and the study has not been peer-reviewed, but researchers found a raw, unadjusted antibody prevalence of 1.5 percent, which was scaled up to 2.5-4.2 percent when adjusting for population and test performance characteristics.

Researchers estimate that if 2.5 to 4.2 percent of the county has already been infected, the true number of total cases in early April — both active and recovered — ranges between 48,000 and 81,000. The county had reported just under 1,000 cases at the time the study was conducted, which would mean cases are being underreported by a factor of 50 to 85. “Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health,” Dr. Eran Bendavid, the Stanford professor who led the study, told ABC News.

If the study’s numbers are accurate, the true mortality and hospitalization rates of COVID-19 are both substantially lower than current estimates, and due to lag between infection and death, researchers project a true mortality rate between .12 and .20. [emphasis mine]

The researchers also note that, based on this study, not enough people have yet been infected to achieve herd immunity, a conclusion totally reasonable considering the effort being made to prevent infection.

Regardless, if true this illustrates again that this virus does not merit the mass hysteria it is causing. Because it, like the flu, mostly kills older and sicker people, not young healthy individuals, the overall mortality will almost certainly not be much different than past years. While it is tragic that this disease, plus the flu, is making survival harder and less likely for older individuals (such as myself by the way), it is unconscionable for us to bankrupt the whole society and abandon the rule of law for this reason.

Sadly, that is apparently what we are doing.

As the researchers note, these results are preliminary, and could turn out to be false. That they coincide with other research in South Korea and on the Diamond Princess cruise ship however gives them some weight.

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Wuhan panic destroys flower business worldwide

1:31 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: The worldwide panic over the Wuhan flu has in one month practically destroyed the $8.5 billion flower/bouquet industry.

Much of the crash has been caused by customers themselves cancelling weddings and events, but that process has been accelerated and promoted by the decision of governors to put their states under house arrest.

Within a few days, all of [flower seller Laura] Clare’s clients planning April weddings were scrambling to pick dates in the fall. She had to tell brides that some flowers, such as cherry blossoms, might not be available then. Soon, as the number of Covid-19 cases in New Jersey passed 1,000, the governor ordered all but essential businesses to close. Florists didn’t make the cut.

With her supply wilting, Clare started giving bouquets away, delivering some to older parishioners at a local church. She furloughed her five full-time employees and canceled her flower orders, which usually total at least $5,000 a week. She’s applying for a Small Business Administration loan that would let her put her workers back on the payroll. “I’ve been through 9/11,” Clare says. “I’ve been through Hurricane Irene, Hurricane Sandy. I’ve never seen anything like this before.”

As with all the closures, the cancellations send disaster in waves throughout the economy. Event venues are now shuttered, their employees facing unemployment. Caterers have no work. Photographers, bakers, clothing designers, everyone involved in this industry is now facing bankruptcy and a crash that they will not recover from for months to years, if ever.

When it comes to something like the Wuhan virus, rational people do a cost-benefit analysis and apply some common sense. It makes no sense to destroy the entire worldwide economy because of a disease that is not going to be much worse than a typical flu season, especially because like the flu COVID-19 focuses most of its worst attacks against the older very sick population. The bulk of the population fights it off with no problem, and goes on living.

Now however we have decided to not allow that, even if the disease does them no harm. They must starve instead.

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Economic index experienced biggest crash ever due to Wuhan panic

1:16 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: The index of leading economic indicators experienced the biggest crash in March in its sixty year history, all due to the shutdowns imposed by the government in panic over the Wuhan flu.

The Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators (LEI) tumbled 6.7% last month, the largest decrease in the series’ 60-year history. Data for February was revised down to show the index falling 0.2% instead of gaining 0.1% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index dropping 7.0% in March.

“The sharp drop in the LEI reflects the sudden halting in business activity as a result of the global pandemic and suggests the U.S. economy will be facing a very deep contraction,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at The Conference Board in Washington.

I continue to find it strange that these stories about the crashing economy are being reported in very few places. This is real news, effecting millions, unlike COVID-19.

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Strange terrain in the Martian lowlands

12:42 pm

Strange terrain in northern lowlands
Click for full image.

Cool image time! The science team for the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) yesterday released a new captioned image, entitled “Disrupted Sediments in Acidalia Planitia”, noting that the photo

…shows a pitted, blocky surface, but also more unusually, it has contorted, irregular features.

Although there are impact craters in this area, some of the features … are too irregular to be relic impact craters or river channels. One possibility is that sedimentary layers have been warped from below to create these patterns. The freezing and thawing of subsurface ice is a mechanism that could have caused this.

The image to the right, rotated, cropped, and reduced to post here, shows the lower quarter of the full image. While in some areas it does appear as if changes below the surface caused the surface to warp and collapse, as suggested by the caption, in other places it looks more like the top layers themselves sublimated away without disturbing what was below them.

Note for example the pits near the bottom of the photograph. They clearly show sedimentary layers on their cliff walls, including the tiny circular mesa in the middle of the rightmost pit.

If these pits were collapsing from below, their cliffs would be more disturbed, because it would have been those lower layers that sublimated first. Instead, it appears that the top layer disappeared first, followed by each lower layer, one by one.

This region of strange terrain is located in the middle of the northern lowland plains. The overview map below gives some context, with the small white box showing this photo’s location.
» Read more

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First manned Dragon flight scheduled for May 27th

10:30 am

Capitalism in space: NASA today officially announced May 27, 2020 as the scheduled launch date for the first manned Dragon flight to ISS, the first time American astronauts will fly from American soil on an American rocket in an American spacecraft since the shuttle was retired almost a decade ago.

The launch is set for 4:32 pm (Eastern), and I am sure will be live streams by both NASA and SpaceX.

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SpaceX reuses sections of damaged Starship prototype for next version

9:07 am

Capitalism in space: In building its fourth Starship prototype for testing, SpaceX has decided to reuse large sections of the previous Starship prototype, badly damaged during a pressure test several weeks ago.

On April 15th, eight days after Starship SN3’s [the damaged third prototype] remaining aft section was cut in half, the rearmost half – known as the skirt – was spotted stacked beneath a brand new engine section built for SN4. While confirming that a significant part of SN3 will be reused on SN4, it also indicates that only a less critical SN3 remnant was fit to join SpaceX’s next prototype.

Though they are not reusing the engines from that third prototype, I have full confidence they will, as they were part of the same bottom section of that prototype that was damaged during the test. This statement is incorrect. I had mistakenly assumed that because SpaceX had said it planned actual test hops eventually with this third prototype that three engines were already in place. They were not.

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Space radiation may increase risk of cancer

8:59 am

Using mice and models, scientists have concluded that humans who spend long periods in space, exposed to its radiation, will have a 3% higher risk for cancer.

A team led by researchers at Colorado State University and Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, which is part of the National Institutes for Health, used a novel approach to test assumptions in a model used by NASA to predict these health risks. Based on the NASA model, the team found that astronauts will have more than a three percent risk of dying of cancer from the radiation exposures they will receive on a Mars mission. That level of risk exceeds what is considered acceptable. [emphasis mine]

And how did they come to this conclusion?

…For the study, Weil and first author Dr. Elijah Edmondson, a veterinary pathologist and researcher based at the Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research in Maryland, used a unique stock of genetically diverse mice, mimicking a human population. Mice were divided into three groups with the first group receiving no radiation exposure and the other two receiving varying levels of exposure.

Edmondson, who conducted the research while completing a veterinary residency in pathology at CSU, said that for this type of research project, genetic variability is crucial. “Humans are very genetically diverse,” he explained. “You want to model that when it’s appropriate and feasible to do so.”

Weil said although the research team saw different tumor types, similar to humans, but the heavy ions did not cause any unique types of cancer. They also saw differences by sex. In humans, women are more susceptible to radiation-induced cancers than men; one of the main reasons is that women live longer, allowing sufficient time for cancer to develop. In assessing the cancer risk between male and female mice in the study, scientists said the findings parallel human data.

Edmondson said the study validates the NASA model to measure cancer risks for humans from space radiation.

In a sense, this study is junk. First, it discovers the obvious (radiation increases your chances of getting cancer). Second, it is too model-dependent, so assigning any precise percentage to that increase in humans is absurd, especially when based on a sample comprised of mice.

Third, and most important, it completely forgets the reality that life is risk, exploration is dangerous, and to do great things you need to take greater chances. That NASA concludes these questionable numbers are unacceptable means that NASA will never send humans anywhere beyond Earth orbit. Ever.

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Chang’e-4 and Yutu-2 reactivated for 17th lunar day on Moon’s surface

8:40 am

Engineers have reactivated both the lander Chang’e-4 and the rover Yutu-2 for their seventeenth lunar day on the far side of the Moon.

The report comes from the state-run Chinese press, so of course, it provides no useful new information other than what I wrote above. It did have this bit of Chinese propaganda, however:

The Chang’e-4 mission embodies China’s hope to combine wisdom in space exploration with four payloads developed by the Netherlands, Germany, Sweden and Saudi Arabia. [emphasis mine]

China’s wisdom sure did everyone a lot of good in Wuhan, didn’t it?

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Splashdown of Apollo 13

7:09 am

Today marks the fiftieth anniversary of the successful safe return to Earth of the Apollo 13 astronauts, Jim Lovell, Jack Swigert, and Fred Haise. Below is CBS’s coverage of that splashdown, in three videos.

If you are still under Wuhan flu house arrest, spend the time to watch them all. Each will automatically start after the previous ends.

Once again it is astonishing to see the differences from today. Note the shot of the quiet crowds watching the telecast in Grand Central Station, and their calm but joyous applause at their first view of the capsule, its parachutes deployed, gently descending safely to the ocean.

As with the moment when the failure occurred on April 13th, the news coverage continues to be detailed and focused on covering the event, not showing off news anchors and pundits. There are no shots of Walter Cronkite in his studio. He is not the story, and he knows it.

The coverage is also patient. For long periods while the divers are securing the capsule in the water, not much happens. There is no effort to return to the studio, or to break for commercials. The focus is on the story, and the story only.

Will someone please tell this to Anderson Cooper, Jim Acosta, and others of their modern ilk?

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Homebuilding market crashes due to Wuhan virus

9:18 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: According to the Commerce Department, housing starts plunged 22.3% in the past month, the largest such decline since 1984, due to the Wuhan flu shutdowns imposed by state governments .

Economists are estimating the economy contracted as much as 10.8% in the first quarter, which would be the steepest drop in gross domestic product since 1947. They say the massive fiscal package will likely provide little cushion for the economy.

“The economy is in a downward spiral where job losses beget job losses and the federal government emergency relief checks will not be enough to turn the tide,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. “The recovery is looking less V-shaped by the day as the deeper we fall, the harder it will be for the nation to climb back out of this deep hole the pandemic has dug for the economy. The worst is yet to come.” [emphasis mine]

Once again, waiting two or three or four more weeks to release us from house arrest does not mean that the economy will simply come back to life then. Once businesses crash, it can take a long time to recover.

The lack of perspective astonishes me. We are going to bankrupt ourselves and bring on a Great Depression over a new disease this year that is comparable to the annual flu season.

Want to continue social distancing? Sure. Want people to wash their hands a lot? Sure. Wear masks? If you think it necessary, sure.

Shut down all business transactions so that millions become jobless and whole industries go bankrupt? Over this? That’s insane. Not only will such a economy crash cause far more suffering and deaths, it will make it far more difficult to fight the disease.

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Clothing and cotton sales plummet 50% due to Wuhan panic

9:06 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the clothing and cotton industry has seen a 50% plunge in sales in the past month due to Wuhan panic.

The result?

As countries worldwide take measures to slow the spread of coronavirus by quarantining people and closing nonessential businesses, sales of cotton — and the clothing and textiles made from it — have declined sharply.

Demand for cotton is so low that even though prices hit their lowest levels in more than a decade, retailers and manufacturing facilities around the world are cancelling orders. “Every stage of the supply chain is getting hit,” said Jon Devine, senior economist for Cotton Incorporated, a nonprofit industry organization based in North Carolina. “Retailers are suffering,” he said. “In between, you’ve got all the manufacturers that are trying to get their orders cancelled. And then you get all the way back to the field. Farmers are entering their planting time. They have some difficult decisions to make.”

In other words, even if we get the country reopened in May (something that right now looks unlikely because of the desire of politicians to crush the economy and cancel the Bill of Rights in order to hurt Trump), this crash now is going to spiral into next year.

I should note that the stories on the crashing economy that I am posting are very easy to find. More to come. Sadly, I have had to widen my searches to more business related sources to find them. In more sane times, a business crash like this would be front page news on every news outlet in the country. Not now. We have gone insane.

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Five million more applied for unemployment benefits last week

6:09 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: More than five million people applied for unemployment benefits last week, a jump caused almost entirely by the government shutdown nationwide.

That brings total claims over the four weeks ended April 11 to nearly 22 million workers, erasing the entirety of labor market gains since the 2008 financial crisis, a stunning sign of the colossal economic damage inflicted by the virus outbreak. Before the pandemic, the largest number of Americans to seek jobless aid in a four-week stretch was 2.7 million in the fall of 1982.

With a labor force that totals about 162 million people, that brings the unemployment rate close to 13 percent.

That exceeds the 10 percent peak during the worst of the Great Recession more than a decade ago and tops the previous post-World War II high of 10.8 percent in 1982, bringing the U.S. closer to Depression-era levels of unemployment. A growing number of economists have warned the so-called “Great Lockdown” will push the global economy into the worst recession since the Great Depression.

This by the way is only the beginning. If businesses are not allowed to open in the next week or so, the cascade of new job loses will make these numbers seem tiny.

But hey, we have to prevent even one death from COVID-19, no matter what the cost, even though its overall impact remains comparable to the annual flu.

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Best Buy furloughs 51,000 workers because of Wuhan panic shutdown

5:57 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: Best Buy yesterday announced that it is furloughing 51,000 workers because their stores have been shuttered by the government imposed lockdown over the Wuhan flu.

Best Buy announced Wednesday the tech chain will furlough roughly 51,000 hourly and part-time store employees nationwide beginning Sunday as the company grapples with the business impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

In addition to furloughing the workers, who include “nearly all part-time employees,” an unspecified amount of corporate staff members have volunteered to work reduced hours and, in turn, take pay cuts, while others have volunteered themselves for the temporary furloughs, Best Buy announced Wednesday.

The company will provide health benefits for three more months. No promises after that.

You know, if the company goes under, caused by the government-imposed shutdown, wouldn’t that be a kind of taking of property? And doesn’t the violate the fifth amendment of the Bill of Rights?

Oh, right, that doesn’t count anymore, according to the Democratic governor of New Jersey. I forgot.

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JC Penny faces bankruptcy due to Wuhan panic

5:47 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: J.C. Penny is now facing bankruptcy because it will unable to meet a due date on a loan because of store closures forced on it by state governors, panicking over the Wuhan flu.

Like many traditional retailers, J.C. Penney’s business has been under pressure in recent years amid declining store traffic and a shift toward digital outlets. The company’s struggles were compounded in recent weeks after the coronavirus pandemic forced the closure of 850 J.C. Penney stores.

With turnaround plans temporarily shelved due to the pandemic, J.C. Penney executives are considering filing for bankruptcy, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the matter. While the retailer has enough cash on hand to weather the store closures, bankruptcy protections would allow J.C. Penney to restructure its upcoming debt payments. The company owes nearly $4 billion in long-term debt.

The article did not say how many employees are presently out of work because of the shut down of JC Penny stores.

I think I will start posting these stories, as I see them. There are a lot, and they illustrate that the shut downs are hurting far more people than the Wuhan flu.

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Trump bows to bureaucrats, unveils a never-ending 3-phase program to end shutdowns

4:00 pm

The house arrests will continue indefinitely: Though the country’s fifty governors are in charge of the nationwide house arrest and the only ones who can really end it, President Trump today unveiled a 3-phrase program to use as a guide for ending those state shutdowns.

The new guidelines are aimed at easing restrictions in areas with low transmission of the coronavirus, while holding the line in harder-hit locations. They make clear that the return to normalcy will be a far longer process than Trump initially envisioned, with federal officials warning that some social distancing measures may need to remain in place through the end of the year to prevent a new outbreak.

Places with declining infections and strong testing would begin a three-phased gradual reopening of businesses and schools — each phase lasting at least 14 days — to ensure that infections don’t accelerate again.

In phase one, for instance, the plan recommends strict social distancing for all people in public. Gatherings larger than 10 people are to be avoided and nonessential travel is discouraged.

In phase two, people are encouraged to maximize social distancing where possible and limit gatherings to no more than 50 people unless precautionary measures are taken. Travel could resume.

Phase three envisions a return to normalcy for most Americans, with a focus on identification and isolation of any new infections.

Essentially Trump has accepted the rules demanded by the nation’s health bureaucrats. The Bill of Rights and Constitution, meant to protect private property, personal freedom, and religious practice, will continue to be suspended and against the law until these petty dictators decide otherwise.

And even when they declare we can go back to “normal,” they want a program to hunt down infected individuals and label them as “unclean” (my term but quite accurate) so that they won’t be able infect the clean. For those individuals, all rights will still be suspended, possibly forever.

Meanwhile, the numbers continue to suggest that the total deaths from this disease will end up comparable to a somewhat normal flu season. Some might then argue that these deaths are in addition to those flu deaths, but that is incorrect. Most flu deaths occur in older and already sick populations. The Wuhan virus targets these same populations. Someone who dies from one would have been just as likely this year to have died from the other. Thus, the overall mortality will probably not change significantly, if at all, in 2020.

We never shut down the country and suspended the Bill of Rights during past similar flu seasons. In fact, it would have been considered insane to do so. I think it is insane now, suggesting that the real epidemic sweeping across the global is mass hysteria, based on an irrational fear fueled by a partisan press and Democratic politicians who are focused solely on attacking Donald Trump and endlessly seeking ways to hurt him, even if it means putting millions of people out of work and bankrupting the economy.

Moreover, there is tentative evidence that suggests the shutdowns are irrelevant to the spread of the disease. Regardless, these shutdowns were never meant to stop it, only to give the health system breathing room so it would not be overwhelmed by too many patients. That has not happened, meaning that the shutdowns are now unnecessary.

It is time for them to end, now. And if the government won’t back down, then maybe it is time for Americans to tell them to go to hell and go back to work anyway, as suggested by Sarah Hoyt.

Ignore their plans. Their plans are not for our good. The goal is to have everyone out of the house and doing the most productive thing they can by May 1st.

May First (Yes, I know, stealing the commies holiday is grand) is now National Hit the Streets Day. If you can get out of the house and work, do so. Open your shop, serve coffee on our front lawn, I don’t care. Be outside. Do something productive. And if you can’t do something productive AT LEAST BE OUTSIDE. Out in the street. Out in the park. Both of which are paid for by your taxes, btw.

May 1st, get out. Wear SOMETHING yellow (Hong Kong, the gillets jeunes, which though not like us also are fighting attempts at tyranny.) Snek optional.

Because we’re Americans. They govern by the consent of the governed. We don’t need their consent to exercise our natural rights.

As she adds, “They can’t arrest everybody.”

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Rover update: Curiosity heads downhill

2:49 pm

Curiosity's last look across the Greenheugh Pedimont
Click for higher resolution.

[For the overall context of Curiosity’s travels, see my March 2016 post, Pinpointing Curiosity’s location in Gale Crater. For the updates in 2018 go here. For a full list of updates before February 8, 2018, go here.]

After finally reaching the top of the Greenheugh Pedimont (see both the March 4 and March 8, 2020 rover updates) and spending more than a month there, drilling one hole, getting samples, and taking a lot of photos, the Curiosity science team in the past week has finally sent the rover retreating back downhill, following the same route it used to climb uphill.

The panorama above was taken on April 10, 2020, and shows the last view looking south across that pedimont towards Mount Sharp, before that descent. As you can see, trying to traverse that terrain would have been very difficult, and probably very damaging to Curiosity’s wheels.
» Read more

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Movie of OSIRIS-REx touch-and-go rehearsal

10:47 am

Checkpoint rehearsal: last image
Click for movie.

The OSIRIS-REx science team yesterday released a short movie, compiled from thirty images taken during the April 14, 2020 rehearsal of the spacecraft’s planned August touch-and-go sample grab from the asteroid Bennu.

The rehearsal brought the spacecraft through the first two maneuvers of the sampling event to a point approximately 213 feet (65 meters) above the surface, before backing the spacecraft away. These images were recorded over a ten-minute span between the execution of the rehearsal’s “Checkpoint” burn, approximately 394 feet (120 meters) above the surface, and the completion of the back-away burn, which occurred approximately 213 feet (65 meters) above the surface. The spacecraft’s sampling arm – called the Touch-And-Go Sample Acquisition Mechanism (TAGSAM) – is visible in the central part of the frame, and the relatively clear, dark patch of Bennu’s sample site Nightingale is visible in the later images, at the top. The large, dark boulder that the spacecraft approaches during the sequence is 43 feet (13 meters) on its longest axis.

The image to the right is the last frame of the movie, as the spacecraft has begun its retreat. The smoother area of Nightingale is at the top.

Based on the video, it appears as if the spacecraft would have missed the Nightingale target site had the rehearsal continued to touchdown. This might not be so, however. And even if it is, the reason for the rehearsal is to allow engineers to refine the process to make it more accurate. We shall see what changes in the second rehearsal in about a month or so.

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Rocket Lab steals Arianespace customer

9:04 am

Capitalism in space: It turns out that a new launch contract won by Rocket Lab this week was actually a payload that was originally going to fly on Arianespace’s Vega rocket.

What Tuesday’s announcement did not include was the fact that the Japanese company [Synspective] shuffled this launch from a Vega rocket onto Electron. The Vega rocket, which had its first failure in 15 launches last July, has yet to return to flight. The spaceport it launches from in French Guiana remains closed due to the coronavirus.

Synspective had signed a major agreement with Arianespace last year to launch what is hoped will become a 25-satellite constellation. It appears that because of the Vega rocket failure, along with its higher price, Rocket Lab is going to get that business instead. That Rocket Lab can provide Synspective a dedicated launch, to the orbit of its choice, also encouraged the switch.

The background of this deal suggests that Rocket Lab’s future is bright, assuming New Zealand and the United States are ever allowed to go back to normal as free and open countries.

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Space Force hypes unspecified Russian anti-satellite test

8:52 am

Yesterday Space Force officials released a scathing press release condemning a so-called Russian anti-satellite test, calling it “a threat” while providing zero details about what the Russians actually did.

I saw the press release and realized it was nothing more than an effort by the new Space Force to justify its existence and to possibly encourage more funding from Congress. Until they release some details about the test itself, the story simply doesn’t merit coverage.

Our compliant and brainless media today however immediately jumped on the Washington swamp bandwagon with numerous stories reinforcing and supporting the Space Force lobbying effort. Here are a few examples:

All of these articles buy into the Space Force agenda, with practically no skepticism. All provide lots of quotes from a variety of Washington “experts” backing the Space Force position, insisting that the Russians are evil and have now demonstrated a new capability that requires a big U.S. response. None provide any further detail about the test itself, meaning that no further information on it was available, and that their stories were nothing more than a xerox of that empty Space Force press release.

Only this story from C4ISRNET described the press release properly, giving no play to these so-called “experts” because any quotes they would provide were merely a transparent lobbying effort for the Space Force. Instead, the article provided this much needed background:

Brian Weeden, director of program planning for the Secure World Foundation, said the test is likely of the Nudol, a ballistic-missile system capable of taking out satellites in low earth orbit. He warned not to overreact, as the system has been tested several times in recent years. According to the CSIS Aerospace Security Project’s Space Threat Assessment 2020, Russia conducted its seventh test of Nudol in December 2018.

As to why military leaders issued the statement, Weeden said it is “part of the DoD being more public about what’s going on in space, which is good. But it also seems the only thing they’re doing about it is using it to justify more U.S. spending on our own counterspace capabilities.” [emphasis mine]

In other words, this test is nothing unusual, and was being hyped by the Space Force in order to garner a bigger budget for the new agency.

Sadly, this is par for the course. Our entire society is presently shut down because medical “experts” in Washington and the mainstream leftist press did the same thing with COVID-19, hyping what was clearly nothing more than a new disease variation of the annual flu season so much that they convinced American public it was another Black Plague. The result: a new Great Depression, millions out of work, and the end of American freedom, all for the benefit of those Washington “experts” and that leftist press.

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Astronomers claim to have discovered most powerful supernova ever

9:38 pm

The uncertainty of science: Astronomers have now calculated that a supernova that was spotted in 2016 was possibly the brightest ever detected, and might have been caused by the merger of two massive stars, each about sixty times as massive as the Sun.

SN 2016aps was discovered by the Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System (Pan- STARRS) Survey for Transients on February 22, 2016 with an apparent magnitude of 18. Also known as PS16aqy, the explosion occurred in a low-mass galaxy some 3.1 billion light-years from Earth.

University of Birmingham’s Dr. Matt Nicholl and colleagues believe SN 2016aps could be an example of an extremely rare ‘pulsational pair-instability’ supernova, possibly formed from two massive stars that merged before the explosion. Such an event so far only exists in theory and has never been confirmed through astronomical observations.

…The researchers observed SN 2016aps for two years, until it faded to 1% of its peak brightness. Using these measurements, they calculated the mass of the supernova was between 50 to 100 solar masses. Typically supernovae have masses of between 8 and 15 solar masses.

They theorize that the supernova became especially bright when the explosion collided with a gas shell that already surrounded both stars.

Lots of assumptions and guesswork here, based on a tiny amount of data. The biggest lack is that they don’t have any observations of the star (or stars) prior to the supernova, so any theory about what those stars were like is exactly that, a theory.

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Judge rules health dept must give names of all COVID-19 patients to police

1:56 pm

The law is only for the little people: An Illinois judge has ruled that the county health department must give the full list of patients infected with the Wuhan virus to the police, immediately making void all federal and state privacy laws designed to protect our health records.

On Friday, McHenry County Judge Michael Chmiel entered a temporary restraining order mandating that the Health Department disclose to police the names of those actively infected with COVID-19.

…The Health Department refused to reveal the names, prosecutors stated in a news release. Health departments have typically cited privacy concern in withholding such information, specifically the federal Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act.

What this also means is that if you have been infected with the Wuhan flu, you are now a second class citizen in McHenry County, subject to increased police surveillance and restrictions, regardless of your rights. And your health records are now out of your control, and being freely distributed to government officials.

This story is hardly an outlier. Government officials nationwide are now using the Wuhan flu as an excuse to make them immune from all laws, free to do anything they want in order to increase their power ad infinitum.

If Americans do not resist this abuse of power now, very soon we will not have even the hint of a free nation that we presently retain.

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Baby Martian volcanoes

1:28 pm

Cratered cone near Noctis Fossae
Click for full image.

Cool image time! I came across this strange feature shown on the right in my normal rummaging through the archive of the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). The photo, rotated, cropped, and reduced to post here, focuses on what they label a “cratered cone.”

The immediate thought is that this is a volcano cone, and the craters at its peak are not impact craters but calderas. In science however such a knee-jerk conclusion is always dangerous. For example, this might instead be a pedestal crater, where the surrounding terrain was worn away over eons, leaving the crater sitting high and dry.

It is therefore important to look deeper to determine what origin of this feature might be.

First, its location, as shown in the overview map below, provides us our first clue.
» Read more

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Earth-sized exoplanet in habitable zone found in old Kepler data

10:25 am

A review of the data produced by the space telescope Kepler, now retired, has discovered an exoplanet about the same size as Earth and also located in the habitable zone that had been missed previously by software.

Scientists discovered this planet, called Kepler-1649c, when looking through old observations from Kepler, which the agency retired in 2018. While previous searches with a computer algorithm misidentified it, researchers reviewing Kepler data took a second look at the signature and recognized it as a planet. Out of all the exoplanets found by Kepler, this distant world – located 300 light-years from Earth – is most similar to Earth in size and estimated temperature.

This newly revealed world is only 1.06 times larger than our own planet. Also, the amount of starlight it receives from its host star is 75% of the amount of light Earth receives from our Sun – meaning the exoplanet’s temperature may be similar to our planet’s as well. But unlike Earth, it orbits a red dwarf. Though none have been observed in this system, this type of star is known for stellar flare-ups that may make a planet’s environment challenging for any potential life.

A number of Earth-like planets have been found around red dwarf stars. Whether life could evolve in such places is entirely unknown. Red dwarfs are small, and would have likely formed in a nebula cloud with a dearth of many elements and materials needed for life. Moreover, because they are also so dim, the habitable zone is very near the star, meaning that, as the article mentions, strong flares are more dangerous.

At the same time, red dwarfs are the most common star, and the most long-lived, capable of burning for tens of billions of years. With enough time and numbers anything is still possible.

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Economy crashes in March due to Wuhan lockdowns

9:46 am

Never let a crisis go to waste: Retail sales in March dropped a record 8.7%, almost entirely due to the nationwide lock downs and business closures imposed by the government on what government officials have arbitrarily determined are “nonessential” businesses.

The Census Bureau said though “many businesses are operating on a limited capacity or have ceased operations completely,” it had “determined estimates in this release meet publication standards.”

Last month’s decrease in retail sales reflected depressed receipts at car dealerships, with light vehicle sales crashing in March. With millions at home and crude oil prices collapsing amid worries of a deep global recession, gasoline prices have dropped, which weighed on sales at service stations in March.

In addition, the closure of non-essential retailers knocked sales at clothing, sporting goods and furniture stores.

There were also steep declines in receipts at restaurants and bars, which stopped in-person service and moved to take-out and delivery service. Though some businesses, including restaurants, have shifted to online sales, the volumes were insufficient to close the gap from social distancing measures. [emphasis mine]

I wonder if the families that run these “non-essential retailers” consider their livelihoods to be “non-essential.” Somehow I don’t think so.

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