Category: Behind The Black

100K airline jobs facing elimination due to Wuhan panic shut downs

3:44 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: Because of the panic over the Wuhan flu, the airlines are contemplating eliminating more than hundred thousand jobs as well as shrinking their fleets.

Unable to cut jobs or salaries while receiving grants to cover payroll, airlines will staff their typical summer peak largely as usual, even with millions of fewer travelers. But come fall, it could get ugly for employees. “We’re going to be smaller coming out of this,” Delta Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson told employees last month. “Certainly quite a bit smaller than when we went into it.”

The reversal of fortune comes as a shock for an industry that just last year was breaking passenger traffic records. Last week, the average number of U.S. daily passengers declined 96%, to 95,531, compared with 2.39 million last year, according to Transportation Security Administration data compiled by Bloomberg. United shares fell Monday after it gave a snapshot of the industry bloodbath triggered by the pandemic, projecting a $2.1 billion loss in the first quarter. Delta, American and Southwest Airlines Co. will release their earnings in the coming days.

Such anemic demand means that anything less than a robust rebound over the coming months will prompt airlines to cut more employees, jettison older aircraft and cut more salaries, which in turn could persuade more workers to depart. During the past two months, at least 87,000 employees—more than one quarter of the Big Three airlines’ workforce—have taken voluntary leaves, early retirement or reduced work hours.

Carriers face “the worst cash crisis in the history of flight,” with booked revenues down 103% year over year, according to industry lobby Airlines for America. Domestic flights are averaging just 10 passengers while international flights average 24, the group said. “We could see the airlines look to shed 800 to 1,000 aircraft, which could result in a reduction of 95,000 to 105,000 airline jobs.”

In this case, the government shut downs only have had an indirect effect. By panicking and overstating the threat from COVID-19, the authorities and the press have made people terrified of flying. Even if the shutdowns end, the airlines will not recover until the public decides it is safe to fly again.

4 comments

Rural hospitals in eastern Washington state face bankruptcy

3:14 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: Because the state government’s panicked reaction to the Wuhan virus resulting in a banning of almost all procedures, rural hospitals in eastern Washington state now face financial collapse, bankruptcy, and possible closure.

With the state’s support, federal aid and advanced Medicare loans, the critical access hospital will be able to stay afloat – for now. But the financial impact of COVID-19 on Washington state’s rural hospitals cannot be understated. “This is unprecedented. There’s no way you could be financially prepared for this,” Jacqueline Barton True, vice president of rural health programs at the Washington State Hospital Association, said. “This sort of financial devastation is not something that we could have prepared for, and I have a lot of concerns about what happens if help doesn’t come soon enough.”

Some rural hospitals have received their first installment of funds from the federal CARES Act. Those payments are about $400,000 to $600,000 on average for smaller hospitals, according to WSHA.

Despite having a robust way for most rural hospitals to access community taxpayer support through the public hospital district model, rural hospitals in Eastern Washington are losing money on a daily basis as they balance pandemic preparations with canceled elective surgeries, primary care or patient therapy.

The article is long, outlining in frightening detail the impending collapse of the entire rural hospital network. The bottom line however remains the same: The state government arbitrarily decided that most medical procedures were “non-essential” and banned them so that the hospital would not be overwhelmed by Wuhan flu patients.

Those patients have never arrived in the feared numbers however. Instead we are looking at a normal flu season, when you combine coronavirus with flu cases. Lacking the revenue stream from all other cases, the hospitals are losing money and face bankruptcy.

5 comments

First exoplanet imaged was nothing more than a debris cloud

2:41 pm

The uncertainty of science: What had originally been thought to be the first image ever taken of an exoplanet has now turned out to be only the fading and expanding cloud of debris, left over from a collusion.

The object, called Fomalhaut b, was first announced in 2008, based on data taken in 2004 and 2006. It was clearly visible in several years of Hubble observations that revealed it was a moving dot. Until then, evidence for exoplanets had mostly been inferred through indirect detection methods, such as subtle back-and-forth stellar wobbles, and shadows from planets passing in front of their stars.

Unlike other directly imaged exoplanets, however, nagging puzzles arose with Fomalhaut b early on. The object was unusually bright in visible light, but did not have any detectable infrared heat signature. Astronomers conjectured that the added brightness came from a huge shell or ring of dust encircling the planet that may possibly have been collision-related. The orbit of Fomalhaut b also appeared unusual, possibly very eccentric. “Our study, which analyzed all available archival Hubble data on Fomalhaut revealed several characteristics that together paint a picture that the planet-sized object may never have existed in the first place,” said Gáspár.

The team emphasizes that the final nail in the coffin came when their data analysis of Hubble images taken in 2014 showed the object had vanished, to their disbelief. Adding to the mystery, earlier images showed the object to continuously fade over time, they say. “Clearly, Fomalhaut b was doing things a bona fide planet should not be doing,” said Gáspár.

The interpretation is that Fomalhaut b is slowly expanding from the smashup that blasted a dissipating dust cloud into space. Taking into account all available data, Gáspár and Rieke think the collision occurred not too long prior to the first observations taken in 2004. By now the debris cloud, consisting of dust particles around 1 micron (1/50th the diameter of a human hair), is below Hubble’s detection limit. The dust cloud is estimated to have expanded by now to a size larger than the orbit of Earth around our Sun.

This is not the first exoplanet that astronauts thought they had imaged, only to find out later that it was no such thing.

Remember this when next you hear or read some scientist telling you they are certain about their results, or that the science is “settled.” Unless you can get close enough to get a real picture in high resolution, or have tons of data from many different sources over a considerable period of time, and conclusions must always be subject to skepticism

5 comments

Price of oil crashes, goes negative

1:31 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: Due to the crash in demand due to the government-imposed Wuhan panic shutdowns, oil producers, who can’t turn off their oil wells, have run out of storage space and are now forced to pay others to take the oil off their hands, thus sending the price of oil into negative numbers.

Physical demand for crude has dried up, creating a global supply glut as billions of people stay home to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus. West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery fell more than 100% to settle at negative $37.63 per barrel.

Meanwhile, international benchmark, Brent crude, which has already rolled to the June contract, traded 8.9% lower at $25.58 per barrel.

While this crash is indicative of the entire crash of the economy, in the near long term it might be a good thing. If the government ever decides to release us from house arrest and people decide it is time to go back to normal, the low price of oil will help stricken businesses get back on their feet.

Then again, there is a very big “if” in that last sentence. I see no indication that our fascist state governors, especially in states run by Democrat governors, have the slightest interest in ending the shut downs. They like the almost absolute power it has given them over everyone, and that absolute power is corrupting them quite effectively. They might be making noises about “easing” the restrictions, but that is only political dishonesty. The bottom line will remain: They are now in control of everything everyone does, and have the right to give or take, as they please, whenever they please.

11 comments

Rock droplets hitting a Martian plain

12:42 pm

Depressions in Amazonis Planitia
Click for full image.

Cool image time! The photo the right, rotated, cropped, and reduced to post here, is not only cool, it contains a punchline. It was taken by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) on February 11, 2020 and shows one small area between two regions in the northern lowlands of Mars, dubbed Amazonia Planitia (to the south) and Arcadia Planitia (to the north) respectively.

This region is thought to have a lot of water ice just below the surface., so much in fact that Donna Viola of the University of Arizona has said, “I think you could dig anywhere to get your water ice.”

I think this image illustrates this fact nicely. Assuming the numerous depressions seen here were caused by impacts, either primary or secondary, it appears that when they hit the ground the heat of that impact was able to immediately melt a wide circular area. My guess is that an underwater ice table immediately turned to gas so that the dusty material mantling the surface then sagged, creating these wider circular depressions.

Of course, this is merely an off-the-cuff theory, and not to be taken too seriously. Other processes having nothing to do with impacts could explain what we see. For example, vents at the center of these craters might have allowed the underground ice to sublimate away, thus allowing the surface to sag.

So what’s the punchline?
» Read more

One comment

Social distancing and lockdowns killing craft beer industry

10:46 am

The beating will continue until morale improves: The new normal of “social distancing”, combined with the government-imposed lock downs, threatens to bankrupt the craft beer industry nationwide.

As much as 15% of craft breweries expect to close by the end of the month if social distancing remains in place, according to a national survey from the Boulder-based Brewers Association, and more than 60% don’t expect to survive beyond June.

If applied to Colorado — which now counts about 420 breweries — the projections suggest 250 would close by summer. That would represent a huge dent for an industry woven into the state’s identity and one that contributes more than $3 billion a year to the state’s economy.

Our society, our culture, our economy, and even the human race itself cannot survive if we accept the premise that no one can ever be closer than six feet to another. It isn’t practical, and it certainly isn’t sane.

5 comments

Study finds COVID-19 infecting homeless in large numbers, with few ill effects

9:25 am

A CDC study that established universal testing for Wuhan virus antibodies at a homeless shelter in Boston has found that almost forty percent of those tested had been infected previously, with no symptoms.

The broad-scale testing took place at the shelter in Boston’s South End a week and a half ago because of a small cluster of cases there. Of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms.

“It was like a double knockout punch. The number of positives was shocking, but the fact that 100 percent of the positives had no symptoms was equally shocking,” said Dr. Jim O’Connell, president of Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program, which provides medical care at the city’s shelters. [emphasis mine]

Not only does this reinforce results from previous studies (here and here) suggesting that the mortality of coronavirus is much smaller than so far measured and quite likely comparable to the flu, it shows that it is not a threat to the general population.

Think about it. The homeless population is usually unhealthy, with alcoholism and drug use prevalent. Yet, even here a large number got infected, exhibited no symptoms, and were unbothered by the virus. It is possible that their normal ill health disguised their symptoms, but nonetheless the Wuhan flu did not kill them.

If it couldn’t kill large numbers in this population, it means it certainly will not kill large numbers in the normal population. Which means that the lockdowns, social distancing, and coming economic crash, all imposed by government and media panic, were all unnecessary.

14 comments

Russians slash their launch prices by 39%

9:08 am

Capitalism in space: Having lost their entire commercial market share because of SpaceX’s lower prices, the Russians have finally decided to slash their launch prices by 39%.

As the article notes, the cost for a Proton rocket launch was once $100 million. Then SpaceX came along with a $60 million pricetag. At first the Russians poo-pooed this, and did nothing. When their customers started to vanish however they decided to finally compete, so a year ago they cut the Proton price to match SpaceX’s.

Because of SpaceX’s ability to reuse its first stages, however, that $60 million price no longer worked. SpaceX had a year earlier lowered its prices even more, to $50 million, for launches with used first stages.

This new price slash by Roscosmos probably brings their price down to about $36 million, and thus beats SpaceX.

We shall see whether it will attract new customers. It definitely is now cheaper, but it is also less reliable. Russia continues to have serious quality control problems at its manufacturing level.

That SpaceX’s arrival forced a drop in the price of a launch from $100 million to less than $40 million illustrates the beautiful value of freedom and competition. The change is even more spectacular when you consider that ULA, the dominant American launch company before SpaceX, had been charging between $200 to $400 million per launch. For decades the Russians, ULA, and Arianespace refused to compete, working instead as a cartel to keep costs high.

SpaceX has ended this corrupt practice. We now have a competitive launch industry, and the result is that the exploration of the solar system is finally becoming a real possibility.

Correction: I originally called ULA “the only American launch company before SpaceX.” This was not correct, as Orbital Sciences, now part of Northrop Grumman, was also launching satellites. It just was a very minor player, with little impact. It was also excluded from the military’s EELV program, and thus could not launch payloads for them after around 2005.

13 comments

Interstellar Comet 2I/Borisov has an excess of carbon monoxide

8:48 am

Astronomers using two difference space telescopes have found that Comet 2I/Borisov, the first known interstellar comet, has an abundance of carbon monoxide when compared to solar system comets.

The team used Hubble’s unique ultraviolet sensitivity to spectroscopically detect carbon monoxide gas escaping from comet Borisov’s solid comet nucleus. Hubble’s Cosmic Origins Spectrograph observed the comet on four separate occasions, from Dec. 11, 2019 to Jan. 13, 2020, which allowed the researchers to see the object’s chemical composition change quickly, as different ice mixtures, including carbon monoxide, oxygen, and water, sublimated under the warmth of the Sun.

The Hubble astronomers were surprised to find that the interstellar comet’s coma, the gas cloud surrounding the nucleus, contains a high amount of carbon monoxide gas, at least 50% more abundant than water vapor. This amount is more than three times higher than the previously measured quantity for any comet entering the inner solar system. The water measurement was made by NASA’s Neil Gehrels-Swift satellite, whose observations were conducted in tandem with the Hubble study.

Carbon monoxide ice is very volatile. It doesn’t take much sunlight to heat the ice and convert it to gas that escapes from a comet’s nucleus. For carbon monoxide, this activity occurs very far from the Sun, about 11 billion miles away, more than twice the distance of Pluto at its farthest point from the Sun. In contrast, water remains in its icy form until about 200 million miles from the Sun, the approximate distance of the inner edge of the asteroid belt.

However, for comet Borisov, the Hubble measurements suggest that some carbon monoxide ice was locked inside the comet’s nucleus, revealed only when the Sun’s heat stripped away layers of water ice. “The amount of carbon monoxide did not drop as expected as the comet receded from the Sun. This means that we are seeing the primitive layers of the comet, which really reflect what this object is made of,” Bodewits explained. “Because of the abundance of carbon monoxide ice that survived so close to the Sun, we think that comet Borisov comes from a much colder place and from a very different debris disk around a star than our own.”

With solar system comets, the ratios between water and carbon monoxide are the reverse, with much more water detected. They theorize, based on these results, that the comet might have come from a cool red dwarf star, but with the available data that is nothing more than a guess at this point.

Leave a comment

Massachusetts study finds 1/3 of participants had already been infected with COVID-19, without symptoms

11:39 pm

A Massachusetts study of 200 residents on a single street found that one third already had antibodies for the Wuhan flu and had never known they have been infected.

The Mass. General study took samples from 200 residents on the street in Chelsea, MA. Participants remained anonymous and provided a drop of blood to researchers, who were able to produce a result in ten minutes with a rapid test.

Sixty-four of the participants tested positive – a “sobering” result, according to Thomas Ambrosino, Chelsea’s city manager. “We’ve long thought that the reported numbers are vastly under-counting what the actual infection is,” Ambrosino told the Boston Globe.

The article, and the government officials quoted, all try to make this result terrifying and something to fear, but the truth is that it is most heartening and more wonderful news. It indicates, as did the California study reported on April 17, that the death rate for coronavirus is much lower than presently calculated because we have been under-estimating the total number of people infected.

Moreover, these individuals apparently experienced few if any symptoms after getting infected, suggesting once again that the disease is not a serious threat to the general population. In fact, it suggests again that the more people who can get infected, the fewer hosts will be available for the virus, and it will die out.

That these officials instead tried to install panic over this encouraging data tells us all that we need to know about these officials. They are lying thugs, aimed not at easing the crisis but in using it to bring power to government, at the expense of the general public.

21 comments

Disney to furlough 100K employees because of government-imposed shut downs

10:47 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: Disney is stopping the salaries of hundred thousand employees this week due to the shut downs imposed upon it by our panicked government over COVID-19.

The company says it will still provide full healthcare benefits for those employees, for the moment.

Once again, the shuttering of the Disney theme parks ripples out into the entire local economy. It isn’t just these employees who are now out of work, it is the hotel, transportation, and restaurant employees whose businesses served the same tourist customers.

Will the theme park entertainment come back? Unknown, I’d say, because the fear being pounded into everyone to “social distance,” to an absurd level, might mean that tourists will no longer feel comfortable visiting such venues.

One comment

Bankruptcy for Neiman Marcus because of government-imposed shutdown

3:05 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: Neiman Marcus to file for bankruptcy, furlough 14,000, due to government-imposed shutdown because of the Wuhan panic.

Neiman Marcus Group, one of the largest retailers in the United States, is reportedly ready to file bankruptcy amid the COVD-19 pandemic after defaulting millions in bond payments last week and furloughing 14,000 employees.

Neiman Marcus would become the first major US department store to crumble amidst the economic set backs from the coronavirus outbreak. Reuters reported the company had few options after the coronavirus spurred lockdowns that shuttered non-essential businesses, including all 43 of their stores. This includes Last Call stores and its two New York City Bergdorf Goodman department stores.

And yes, I know it was already struggling, as are many brick-and-mortar department stores because of the shift to online shopping. The government over-reaction to the Wuhan virus however has done a great job of pushing the company over the edge, killing it.

As with any failure like this, the consequences will ripple outward far beyond the loss of this one company. The lost jobs will mean people will not have money to spend, so other businesses will suffer. The downward spiral will only get worse.

Want to know what it was like to live in failing socialist societies like the Soviet Union and Venezuela? You are now getting the chance. In our case the government has apparently bypassed the direct takeover of industry and the economy where it would over a few years run the society into bankruptcy. Instead, it decided to destroy everything by edict, all in one blow.

11 comments

Unprecedented wave of evictions coming due to Wuhan panic

2:35 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: Based on court filings, authorities in Oklahoma expect an unprecedented number of rental evictions in the coming months due to the government-imposed business shut downs and resulting unemployment.

Attorneys and academics told The Oklahoman a moratorium on eviction hearings, once ended, will be followed by a wave of evictions creating a homeless population not seen since the Great Depression.

…The state’s unemployment rate hit record levels within weeks of the outbreak, with first-time claims on unemployment insurance up by nearly 800%. Nearly 100,000 Oklahomans, more than the entire population of Edmond, filed initial claims in the past two weeks. “I don’t see how these people are going to be able to pay their bills,” [said Richard Klinge, director of the Pro Bono Eviction Assistance Program at Oklahoma City University]. “It’s a tsunami coming on the horizon as people can’t pay their rent.”

A national survey by Eviction Lab at Princeton University ranked Tulsa and Oklahoma City as cities with the 11th and 20th highest eviction rates based on 2016 data. The Pro Bono Eviction Assistance Program under Klinge has helped 650 families — more than 1,300 men, women and children — facing eviction and other landlord issues since the organization was started in 2018. That is only a fraction of total evictions the state could see this year alone.

“Before COVID-19 struck, based on filings to date in Oklahoma County, 14,000 cases would be set for Oklahoma County in 2020,” Klinge said. “That means more than 30,000 men, women and children will be facing eviction from their homes.

I remain amazed how little interest there is in the overall economic disaster that is going to bankrupt thousands of businesses and push millions out of their homes. In the end, this collapse of the economic is going to hurt (and kill) far more people that anything so far suggested possible by the Wuhan virus.

Instead, our state-run press, hawking propaganda for the government and its employees, seems only interested in reporting the possibility that government agencies might have to shrink and cut pay.

8 comments

More economic disasters due to government imposed shut downs

10:05 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: Below are some stories I found today describing the on-going the collapse of the economy due to the nationwide lock downs imposed by state and local governments because of their panic over the Wuhan flu.

Note how the first two stories are about the sufferings of state employees, whether in government or academia. Note too how these stories only mention as an aside the collapse of the real economy. Who cares if millions of private businesses are going under? What’s really important is that we won’t be able to grab their profits and the government will have to shrink! Horrors!

Only the last two stories are about the real crash, with only the last, buried among many other stories on RealClearPolitics, telling the true tale:

The Commerce Department said on Thursday business applications dropped 21.4% in the week ending April 11, compared with the same period last year.

…The slump in business applications comes as states and local governments have issued “stay-at-home” or “shelter-in-place” orders affecting more than 90% of Americans to control the spread of COVID-19, the potentially lethal respiratory illness caused by the virus, and abruptly halting economic activity.

At least 22 million people have filed for unemployment benefits in the last four weeks. Retail sales suffered a record drop in March and output at factories declined by the most since 1946. Homebuilding crumbled in March at a speed not seen in 36 years. Economists believe the economy contracted at its steepest pace since World War Two in the first quarter. [emphasis mine]

A 21% drop in new businesses tells us that the economy will not recover from this madness very quickly. Money is drying up, the banks are under a strain, and the economy is shrinking like a burst balloon.

The middle paragraph in the quote above is intended to justify this crash and government abuse of power by the use of the word “lethal,” thus playing up danger of the Wuhan flu, even though the evidence still shows it to be, like the flu, only a threat to the old and the sick. Like the flu, most everyone else simply fights it off with no long term consequences.

3 comments

Overall U.S. death rate is at a multi-year LOW

1:36 pm

Despite the panic over the Wuhan virus, it now appears that the overall U.S. death rate this winter season is at a multi-year low, no worse than 2014, 2016, and 2019, and far better than 2015, 2017, and 2018 (when we were hit with one of the worst flu seasons in years).

The article at the link for one example cites the totals for the first week in April:

On April 5th, the U.S. saw 1,344 COVID-19 deaths, as the number of cases in the U.S. accelerated. The overall number of deaths in the U.S., or the crude death rate did not show a correlated rise.

At the very least, this data shows we need to analyze COVID-19 deaths in the context of the broader U.S. mortality rate from all causes. It appears normal deaths are being attributed to COVID-19 if the patient is COVID-19+, even if another underlying chronic cause is responsible.

It then includes a graph showing the total deaths since 2014, plotted weekly. This year is remarkably ho-hum. The last two years were far worse. Go to the link and look at the graph for yourself if you have doubts.

Nor should anyone have ever been surprised by these numbers, even three months ago. All the evidence on the ground about COVID-19, once it had escaped from China and reliable data could begin to be gathered, suggested strongly that its general attack on humans was similar to the flu. Younger people were hardly bothered by it. Instead, it killed the old and sick. Since those people can’t die twice, it is manifestly obvious that we should have expected the overall numbers to not go up much.

Which is exactly what has happened.

Moreover, the panic over the Wuhan flu caused people to social distance themselves, which certainly acted to cause a drop in all infectious diseases. This might explain this year’s lower numbers, but it must also be noted that the drop in 2020 is not really that significant, illustrating again the pointlessness of all these preventative measures. You really can’t run from infectious diseases. They are going to spread through the population regardless. Only if it appears the disease is attacking the young should extreme measures be taken.

To put it bluntly, our elected leaders in Washington and in statehouses across the country, working in tandem with the incompetent (but well-paid) bureaucrats in Washington and with a overly emotional and partisan press willing to say any lie in order to attack Donald Trump, have caused what might turn out to be another great depression, for absolutely no reason at all.

In the process they have also acted to nullify the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, working as hard as they could to destroy the freest nation in the history of the world, and the most successful because of that freedom.

Are you enraged yet? And are you going to do something about it in November?

83 comments

Wuhan panic wipes out NY restaurant business

3:54 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: Because of the government shut down caused by the panic over the Wuhan virus, the entire New York city restaurant business, one of that city’s most important industries, is now facing closure and bankruptcy, with many stores boarding up their windows and going out of business.

Most restaurants are completely shuttered. Many that tried takeout and delivery ended their operations for fear of their employees and customers’ safety. Those that are still trying to make it work are unsustainably earning a fraction of what they normally would make. Federal Small Business Administration loans have yet to hit most bank accounts, and the programs have already run out of money. Even California, which is far ahead of New York in containing the virus, will reduce capacity in restaurants when the shutdown finally lifts, a move that many restaurateurs say will likely hurt businesses as they attempt to recover from the crisis.

The first sign of longer term decline is here: the boarded up storefront. Common during the lead-up to hurricanes to prevent flying debris from smashing up windows, plywood is otherwise used to minimize the risks of burglaries and looting. Will it get that bad? No owner that we reached out to would openly acknowledge it. But as the crisis drags on indefinitely, restaurants are starting to close permanently and unemployment continues to skyrocket. Some restaurateurs are taking a preventative tact in case the economic impact takes an even deeper turn.

The article talks about government help, but there isn’t enough money in the universe capable of covering these losses if the government shut downs continue much longer.

One comment

Study suggests COVID-19 death rate is far less than presently reported, comparable to flu

3:47 pm

The uncertainty of science: A California large-scale study of COVID-19 anti-bodies in the general population has found that the infection rate for the Wuhan virus could be 50 to 85 times higher than present counts, which would mean that the death rate is actually quite low, comparable to the flu.

The results of the study are preliminary and not peer-reviewed, but the general takeaways would seem to strongly contribute to the notion that there have been a large number of COVID-19 cases that went undetected.

Due to questions over the antibody tests’ efficacy, researchers adjusted for test performance characteristics by using the test manufacturer’s data and a sample of controls tested at Stanford University. Again, the results are preliminary and the study has not been peer-reviewed, but researchers found a raw, unadjusted antibody prevalence of 1.5 percent, which was scaled up to 2.5-4.2 percent when adjusting for population and test performance characteristics.

Researchers estimate that if 2.5 to 4.2 percent of the county has already been infected, the true number of total cases in early April — both active and recovered — ranges between 48,000 and 81,000. The county had reported just under 1,000 cases at the time the study was conducted, which would mean cases are being underreported by a factor of 50 to 85. “Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health,” Dr. Eran Bendavid, the Stanford professor who led the study, told ABC News.

If the study’s numbers are accurate, the true mortality and hospitalization rates of COVID-19 are both substantially lower than current estimates, and due to lag between infection and death, researchers project a true mortality rate between .12 and .20. [emphasis mine]

The researchers also note that, based on this study, not enough people have yet been infected to achieve herd immunity, a conclusion totally reasonable considering the effort being made to prevent infection.

Regardless, if true this illustrates again that this virus does not merit the mass hysteria it is causing. Because it, like the flu, mostly kills older and sicker people, not young healthy individuals, the overall mortality will almost certainly not be much different than past years. While it is tragic that this disease, plus the flu, is making survival harder and less likely for older individuals (such as myself by the way), it is unconscionable for us to bankrupt the whole society and abandon the rule of law for this reason.

Sadly, that is apparently what we are doing.

As the researchers note, these results are preliminary, and could turn out to be false. That they coincide with other research in South Korea and on the Diamond Princess cruise ship however gives them some weight.

14 comments

Wuhan panic destroys flower business worldwide

1:31 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: The worldwide panic over the Wuhan flu has in one month practically destroyed the $8.5 billion flower/bouquet industry.

Much of the crash has been caused by customers themselves cancelling weddings and events, but that process has been accelerated and promoted by the decision of governors to put their states under house arrest.

Within a few days, all of [flower seller Laura] Clare’s clients planning April weddings were scrambling to pick dates in the fall. She had to tell brides that some flowers, such as cherry blossoms, might not be available then. Soon, as the number of Covid-19 cases in New Jersey passed 1,000, the governor ordered all but essential businesses to close. Florists didn’t make the cut.

With her supply wilting, Clare started giving bouquets away, delivering some to older parishioners at a local church. She furloughed her five full-time employees and canceled her flower orders, which usually total at least $5,000 a week. She’s applying for a Small Business Administration loan that would let her put her workers back on the payroll. “I’ve been through 9/11,” Clare says. “I’ve been through Hurricane Irene, Hurricane Sandy. I’ve never seen anything like this before.”

As with all the closures, the cancellations send disaster in waves throughout the economy. Event venues are now shuttered, their employees facing unemployment. Caterers have no work. Photographers, bakers, clothing designers, everyone involved in this industry is now facing bankruptcy and a crash that they will not recover from for months to years, if ever.

When it comes to something like the Wuhan virus, rational people do a cost-benefit analysis and apply some common sense. It makes no sense to destroy the entire worldwide economy because of a disease that is not going to be much worse than a typical flu season, especially because like the flu COVID-19 focuses most of its worst attacks against the older very sick population. The bulk of the population fights it off with no problem, and goes on living.

Now however we have decided to not allow that, even if the disease does them no harm. They must starve instead.

3 comments

Economic index experienced biggest crash ever due to Wuhan panic

1:16 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: The index of leading economic indicators experienced the biggest crash in March in its sixty year history, all due to the shutdowns imposed by the government in panic over the Wuhan flu.

The Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators (LEI) tumbled 6.7% last month, the largest decrease in the series’ 60-year history. Data for February was revised down to show the index falling 0.2% instead of gaining 0.1% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index dropping 7.0% in March.

“The sharp drop in the LEI reflects the sudden halting in business activity as a result of the global pandemic and suggests the U.S. economy will be facing a very deep contraction,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at The Conference Board in Washington.

I continue to find it strange that these stories about the crashing economy are being reported in very few places. This is real news, effecting millions, unlike COVID-19.

One comment

Strange terrain in the Martian lowlands

12:42 pm

Strange terrain in northern lowlands
Click for full image.

Cool image time! The science team for the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) yesterday released a new captioned image, entitled “Disrupted Sediments in Acidalia Planitia”, noting that the photo

…shows a pitted, blocky surface, but also more unusually, it has contorted, irregular features.

Although there are impact craters in this area, some of the features … are too irregular to be relic impact craters or river channels. One possibility is that sedimentary layers have been warped from below to create these patterns. The freezing and thawing of subsurface ice is a mechanism that could have caused this.

The image to the right, rotated, cropped, and reduced to post here, shows the lower quarter of the full image. While in some areas it does appear as if changes below the surface caused the surface to warp and collapse, as suggested by the caption, in other places it looks more like the top layers themselves sublimated away without disturbing what was below them.

Note for example the pits near the bottom of the photograph. They clearly show sedimentary layers on their cliff walls, including the tiny circular mesa in the middle of the rightmost pit.

If these pits were collapsing from below, their cliffs would be more disturbed, because it would have been those lower layers that sublimated first. Instead, it appears that the top layer disappeared first, followed by each lower layer, one by one.

This region of strange terrain is located in the middle of the northern lowland plains. The overview map below gives some context, with the small white box showing this photo’s location.
» Read more

Leave a comment

First manned Dragon flight scheduled for May 27th

10:30 am

Capitalism in space: NASA today officially announced May 27, 2020 as the scheduled launch date for the first manned Dragon flight to ISS, the first time American astronauts will fly from American soil on an American rocket in an American spacecraft since the shuttle was retired almost a decade ago.

The launch is set for 4:32 pm (Eastern), and I am sure will be live streams by both NASA and SpaceX.

5 comments

SpaceX reuses sections of damaged Starship prototype for next version

9:07 am

Capitalism in space: In building its fourth Starship prototype for testing, SpaceX has decided to reuse large sections of the previous Starship prototype, badly damaged during a pressure test several weeks ago.

On April 15th, eight days after Starship SN3’s [the damaged third prototype] remaining aft section was cut in half, the rearmost half – known as the skirt – was spotted stacked beneath a brand new engine section built for SN4. While confirming that a significant part of SN3 will be reused on SN4, it also indicates that only a less critical SN3 remnant was fit to join SpaceX’s next prototype.

Though they are not reusing the engines from that third prototype, I have full confidence they will, as they were part of the same bottom section of that prototype that was damaged during the test. This statement is incorrect. I had mistakenly assumed that because SpaceX had said it planned actual test hops eventually with this third prototype that three engines were already in place. They were not.

3 comments

Space radiation may increase risk of cancer

8:59 am

Using mice and models, scientists have concluded that humans who spend long periods in space, exposed to its radiation, will have a 3% higher risk for cancer.

A team led by researchers at Colorado State University and Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, which is part of the National Institutes for Health, used a novel approach to test assumptions in a model used by NASA to predict these health risks. Based on the NASA model, the team found that astronauts will have more than a three percent risk of dying of cancer from the radiation exposures they will receive on a Mars mission. That level of risk exceeds what is considered acceptable. [emphasis mine]

And how did they come to this conclusion?

…For the study, Weil and first author Dr. Elijah Edmondson, a veterinary pathologist and researcher based at the Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research in Maryland, used a unique stock of genetically diverse mice, mimicking a human population. Mice were divided into three groups with the first group receiving no radiation exposure and the other two receiving varying levels of exposure.

Edmondson, who conducted the research while completing a veterinary residency in pathology at CSU, said that for this type of research project, genetic variability is crucial. “Humans are very genetically diverse,” he explained. “You want to model that when it’s appropriate and feasible to do so.”

Weil said although the research team saw different tumor types, similar to humans, but the heavy ions did not cause any unique types of cancer. They also saw differences by sex. In humans, women are more susceptible to radiation-induced cancers than men; one of the main reasons is that women live longer, allowing sufficient time for cancer to develop. In assessing the cancer risk between male and female mice in the study, scientists said the findings parallel human data.

Edmondson said the study validates the NASA model to measure cancer risks for humans from space radiation.

In a sense, this study is junk. First, it discovers the obvious (radiation increases your chances of getting cancer). Second, it is too model-dependent, so assigning any precise percentage to that increase in humans is absurd, especially when based on a sample comprised of mice.

Third, and most important, it completely forgets the reality that life is risk, exploration is dangerous, and to do great things you need to take greater chances. That NASA concludes these questionable numbers are unacceptable means that NASA will never send humans anywhere beyond Earth orbit. Ever.

9 comments

Chang’e-4 and Yutu-2 reactivated for 17th lunar day on Moon’s surface

8:40 am

Engineers have reactivated both the lander Chang’e-4 and the rover Yutu-2 for their seventeenth lunar day on the far side of the Moon.

The report comes from the state-run Chinese press, so of course, it provides no useful new information other than what I wrote above. It did have this bit of Chinese propaganda, however:

The Chang’e-4 mission embodies China’s hope to combine wisdom in space exploration with four payloads developed by the Netherlands, Germany, Sweden and Saudi Arabia. [emphasis mine]

China’s wisdom sure did everyone a lot of good in Wuhan, didn’t it?

Leave a comment

Splashdown of Apollo 13

7:09 am

Today marks the fiftieth anniversary of the successful safe return to Earth of the Apollo 13 astronauts, Jim Lovell, Jack Swigert, and Fred Haise. Below is CBS’s coverage of that splashdown, in three videos.

If you are still under Wuhan flu house arrest, spend the time to watch them all. Each will automatically start after the previous ends.

Once again it is astonishing to see the differences from today. Note the shot of the quiet crowds watching the telecast in Grand Central Station, and their calm but joyous applause at their first view of the capsule, its parachutes deployed, gently descending safely to the ocean.

As with the moment when the failure occurred on April 13th, the news coverage continues to be detailed and focused on covering the event, not showing off news anchors and pundits. There are no shots of Walter Cronkite in his studio. He is not the story, and he knows it.

The coverage is also patient. For long periods while the divers are securing the capsule in the water, not much happens. There is no effort to return to the studio, or to break for commercials. The focus is on the story, and the story only.

Will someone please tell this to Anderson Cooper, Jim Acosta, and others of their modern ilk?

5 comments

Homebuilding market crashes due to Wuhan virus

9:18 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: According to the Commerce Department, housing starts plunged 22.3% in the past month, the largest such decline since 1984, due to the Wuhan flu shutdowns imposed by state governments .

Economists are estimating the economy contracted as much as 10.8% in the first quarter, which would be the steepest drop in gross domestic product since 1947. They say the massive fiscal package will likely provide little cushion for the economy.

“The economy is in a downward spiral where job losses beget job losses and the federal government emergency relief checks will not be enough to turn the tide,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. “The recovery is looking less V-shaped by the day as the deeper we fall, the harder it will be for the nation to climb back out of this deep hole the pandemic has dug for the economy. The worst is yet to come.” [emphasis mine]

Once again, waiting two or three or four more weeks to release us from house arrest does not mean that the economy will simply come back to life then. Once businesses crash, it can take a long time to recover.

The lack of perspective astonishes me. We are going to bankrupt ourselves and bring on a Great Depression over a new disease this year that is comparable to the annual flu season.

Want to continue social distancing? Sure. Want people to wash their hands a lot? Sure. Wear masks? If you think it necessary, sure.

Shut down all business transactions so that millions become jobless and whole industries go bankrupt? Over this? That’s insane. Not only will such a economy crash cause far more suffering and deaths, it will make it far more difficult to fight the disease.

9 comments

Clothing and cotton sales plummet 50% due to Wuhan panic

9:06 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the clothing and cotton industry has seen a 50% plunge in sales in the past month due to Wuhan panic.

The result?

As countries worldwide take measures to slow the spread of coronavirus by quarantining people and closing nonessential businesses, sales of cotton — and the clothing and textiles made from it — have declined sharply.

Demand for cotton is so low that even though prices hit their lowest levels in more than a decade, retailers and manufacturing facilities around the world are cancelling orders. “Every stage of the supply chain is getting hit,” said Jon Devine, senior economist for Cotton Incorporated, a nonprofit industry organization based in North Carolina. “Retailers are suffering,” he said. “In between, you’ve got all the manufacturers that are trying to get their orders cancelled. And then you get all the way back to the field. Farmers are entering their planting time. They have some difficult decisions to make.”

In other words, even if we get the country reopened in May (something that right now looks unlikely because of the desire of politicians to crush the economy and cancel the Bill of Rights in order to hurt Trump), this crash now is going to spiral into next year.

I should note that the stories on the crashing economy that I am posting are very easy to find. More to come. Sadly, I have had to widen my searches to more business related sources to find them. In more sane times, a business crash like this would be front page news on every news outlet in the country. Not now. We have gone insane.

Leave a comment
1 … 368 369 370 371 372 … 1,087