February 28, 2024 Zimmerman/Batchelor podcast
Embedded below the fold in two parts.
To listen to all of John Batchelor’s podcasts, go here.
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Category: Behind The Black
Spanky & Our Gang – Sunday Will Never Be The Same
An evening pause: Performed live on the Ed Sullivan Show in 1967. The costumes scream the late sixties.
Hat tip Diane Zimmerman.
Inspector General: Mars Sample Return mission in big trouble
Though the audit published today [pdf] by NASA’s inspector general of the NASA/ESA Mars Sample Return mission partnership tries to couch its language positively, the conclusion one reaches by reading the report is that the project is a mess and will almost certainly not fly when scheduled in 2029, and might even get delayed so much that the Perseverance rover on Mars — an essential component of the mission plan — might no longer be operational at that time.
First the budget wildly out of control.
The trajectory of the MSR Program’s life-cycle cost estimate, which has grown from $2.5 to $3 billion in July 2020, to $6.2 billion at KDP-B in September 2022, to an unofficial estimate of $7.4 billion as of June 2023 raises questions about the affordability of the Program.
In addition, the audit noted that this is not the end, and that based on another independent review the budget could balloon to $8 to $11 billion before all is said and done. (I will predict that as presently designed, that budget will likely reach $15 billion.)
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Today’s blacklisted American: “Progressive” leftists in Seattle can’t even take a joke, blackballing four comedians
Click for original video.
They’re coming for you next: Not surprisingly, a comedy club located in the heart of Seattle, in the very same CHAZ neighborhood (Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone) that leftist Antifa thugs took over in 2020 after the death of George Floyd, has cancelled the scheduled appearance of four comedians, apparently because all four were considered too moderate and not “progressive” enough for that radical community of close-minded fascists. As rationalized in an email to the comedians, comedy club officials explained:
Capitol Hill is known for its progressive values, and we’ve received significant feedback expressing concerns about the alignment of these upcoming shows with the neighborhood’s ethos. This feedback includes concerns from local advocacy groups that are deeply embedded in our community and work towards upholding its values.
Given the feedback and to avoid any potential negative impact on both our club and the artists involved, as well as to maintain the harmony within our community, we believe the most responsible course of action is to not move forward with the shows for Dave Smith on April 11th, Luis J Gomez for May 31st-June 1st, Jim Florentine for September 20th-21st and sadly Kurt Metzger on October 11th-12th as well.
The email also added most dishonestly, “We truly value the art of comedy and the diverse perspectives it brings to our lives.”
What a crock. » Read more
“Thar’s gold in them there asteroids!”
Actually, the “gold” in the quote refers less to the actual element and more to the potential wealth lurking within the resources available in many asteroids in space. I base this optimistic assessment, which is looking at the very long term and not the near future, based on the following chart, just published in a new white paper report [pdf] dubbed “Asteroid Mining: Key to Large-Scale Space Migration or Rocky Road?” The chart itself comes from this October 2023 research paper.
Except for gold, the estimated abundances in metallic asteroids of all these important minerals exceeds the entire reserves contained on Earth, by many times. And even though the asteroid reserves of gold do not exceed that of Earth, that in-space gold is likely far easier to access and mine. As the report notes:
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Rocket Lab unveils a family of four different service modules for all kinds of satellites
Rocket Lab continues to expand its product line beyond just rockets, today unveiling a family of four different types of service modules, designed to provide maneuvering, communications, and power to satellites.
The four service modules, dubbed Photon, Lightning, Pioneer, and Explorer, are each designed to serve different types of satellites, from low orbit to geosynchronous. The company is also developing a larger rocket, Neutron, in addition to its Electron rocket.
Presently only Electron and Photon are operational, both having serviced multiple customers. Neutron is still scheduled for a first launch later this year, though a delay into 2025 is expected. It is not clear when Lightning, Pioneer, and Explorer will make their first flights.
Update on Starship/Superheavy preparations at Boca Chica
Link here. After two separate but aborted dress rehearsal countdowns, the rocket has been destacked with Superheavy rolled back to the assembly building.
After two Wet Dress Rehearsal (WDR) aborts, SpaceX opted to destack Ship 28 before removing Booster 10 from the Orbital Launch Mount (OLM). The Booster has since rolled back to the Production Site, while Ship 28 conducted standalone testing on Pad B, opening with a Spin Prime test on Monday.
A March launch of Flight 3 for Starship is still possible, pending the completion of full stack testing and approval from the FAA.
While the aborts suggest some technical issues occurred that need addressing, the destacking and additional work could also be for other reasons. The FAA has still not issued a launch license, and is demanding certain actions before doing so. It could be that the company is being forced to make certain upgrades on these prototypes it would have rather left to the next test launch with more advanced prototypes.
Either way, it now appears that a March launch is possibly threatened.
Astra’s founders slash their offer price to buy the company
The two founders of the startup Astra have now slashed their offer price from $1.50 to $0.50 per share to buy the company and take it private.
Kemp and London cited several reasons for cutting the share price. They included continued cash burn by the company since they tendered the original offer and higher “non-operating expenses” as the company used multiple third-party advisers to assess options. They also said the special committee, as well as customers and investors, sought a plan that ensured a sufficient cash balance to support company operations once the deal closed.
It appears that they are willing to let the company go into bankrupty rather than pay their original offer. The new offer of $0.50 per share however remains significantly below the present trading price of about $1.76.
ULA begins stacking Atlas-5 rocket for launching the first manned mission of Starliner
ULA has begun to assemble the Atlas-5 rocket that will hopefully launch Boeing’s Starliner capsule on its first manned mission to ISS, presently targeting a late April lift-off.
The rocket’s main stage was transferred from the nearby Advanced Spaceflight Operations Center to the integration facility Wednesday, Feb. 21, where it will await integration with the rocket’s upper Centaur stage and Starliner. The spacecraft will carry NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore to the orbiting laboratory for a short stay of about one to two weeks before returning to a landing site in the southwest United States.
The late April date appears to be a slight delay from previous announcements.
Major layoff expected at Northrop Grumman’s facility at Redondo Beach, California
On February 26, 2024 Northrop Grumman issued a required notice to its employees at its facility at Redondo Beach, California, that a major layoff of about a thousand employees, about 14% of its workforce at this location, is upcoming.
No reason was given for the cuts, nor did the notice indicate what divisions at the facility would be most affected. However, the cancellation only two weeks ago of a $733 million satellite contract with the Space Force — due to scheduling issues and budget overages — is likely a factor. In addition, the cost overruns in building the habitable module for NASA’s Lunar Gateway space station probably also contributed.
The company has also had problems with its Antares rocket, which relied on Russian engines and a Ukrainian-built first stage. It is presently grounded while Firefly designs and constructs a new American-built first stage. Northrop has had to also spend extra money to buy launch services from SpaceX to get its Cygnus cargo capsule to ISS.
Odysseus’ tip-over likely caused because it landed without good elevation data
It appears that the improvised switch to a NASA range finder instrument just before landing only partly worked during Odysseus’s landing attempt on the Moon, causing the spacecraft to hit the ground at too great a speed with too much laterial motion, resulting in the snapping of one leg and the lander tipping over.
Apparently, Odysseus could no longer process altitude data from the NASA instrument once it was within 15 kilometers of the surface. It had to rely on its optical cameras, a poor substitute.
By comparing imagery data frame by frame, the flight computer could determine how fast it was moving relative to the lunar surface. Knowing its initial velocity and altitude prior to initiating powered descent and using data from the inertial measurement unit (IMU) on board Odysseus, it could get a rough idea of altitude. But that only went so far. “So we’re coming down to our landing site with no altimeter,” Altemus said.
Unfortunately, as it neared the lunar surface, the lander believed it was about 100 meters higher relative to the Moon than it actually was. So instead of touching down with a vertical velocity of just 1 meter per second and no lateral movement, Odysseus was coming down three times faster and with a lateral speed of 2 meters per second.
Though the spacecraft landed upright, the high speed and sideways motion caused one leg to snap, and the spacecraft then fell over. In this sideways position Odysseus’ main solar panel could not get enough sunlight, forcing the mission to end prematurely.
A final press conference summing up the mission is scheduled for 2 pm (Eastern) today.
Was the mission a success? The failures and problems during touchdown illustrated engineering and management issues that must be addressed before the next flight. At the same time, the mission’s number one goal was to soft land on the Moon, and it did do so, even with those serious engineering problems.
More important, this flight’s first and foremost goal was an engineering test of that technology. In this sense that mission succeeded brilliantly, revealing those last technical issues.
Tonight’s Space Show cancelled due to computer hack
My appearance tonight on the Space Show with David Livingston has been unfortunately cancelled because the Space Show website was hacked early this morning. David is struggling to get some live stream system working, hopefully by tomorrow, with me being the guest. Stay tuned.
In the meantime, his show could use some financial help to fix this problem. Even though I doing on my own fund-raiser for Behind the Black at present, I feel compelled to ask my readers to consider helping the Space Show as well. In the past two decades I have been on that show more than any other guest. It has helped spread the word about capitalism in space more than any other outlet. Here is the donation information:
Online through Paypal at www.paypal.me/thespaceshow. Using Zelle, email your donation to [david at onegiantleapfoundation dot org]. You will need to convert the “at” and “dot”. Or send a check payable to and mailed to One Giant Leap Foundation, C/O Dr. David Livingston, 11035 Lavender Hill Dr. Ste. 160-306, Las Vegas, NV 89135.
Please help if you can, especially if you have listened to the show over the years.