November 3, 2022 Zimmerman/Batchelor podcast
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Category: Behind The Black
Carly Simon – You’re So Vain
An evening pause: Performed live in 1987 on Martha’s Vineyard.
Hat tip Alton Blevins, who sent it as a memorial for the passing of Simon’s two sisters last week.
Today’s blacklisted American: Instagram bans pro-life student group at Auburn for being pro-life
Instagram’s instruction manual.
The modern dark age: After the Students for Life at Auburn University posted an announcement on Instagram promoting the annual March for Life anti-abortion protest in Washington, DC, Instagram immediately banned the organization, claiming simply that “Your account, or activity on it, doesn’t follow our Community Guidelines on business integrity.”
When the students appealed this decision — noting that the accusation made no sense — Instagram responded with an even more bogus and absurd explanation.
Auburn SFL, in a statement provided to The College Fix on Tuesday, said that on Oct. 13, their social media director appealed Instagram’s decision and asked for further clarification. The next day, Instagram responded saying that a potential reason for the ban was that the group “pretended to be someone else,” student President Gwen Charles said via email. [emphasis mine]
Note the highlighted word. Apparently Instagram itself doesn’t know why its banned the Students for Life account. Or more probably, it does know (“We can’t allow these Republicans *yuch!* free to say anything they want!”) but recognized it couldn’t admit this publicly.
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FCC chief proposes agency reorganization of its space-related bureaucracy
At an industry conference today the head of the FCC announced her plan to reorganize and enlarge the agency’s space-related operations.
In a speech at a Satellite Industry Association event, FCC Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel announced her intent to reorganize the commission’s International Bureau into a new Space Bureau and a standalone Office of International Affairs. That reorganization, she said, would give satellite licensing and regulatory work greater prominence and access to more resources. “The organizational structures of the agency have not kept pace as the applications and proceedings before us have multiplied,” she said, saying that the FCC has applications under consideration for systems totaling 64,000 satellites. “You can’t just keep doing things the old way and expect to lead in the new.”
Having a bureau devoted to space, she said, would go hand-in-hand with efforts to increase staffing and develop new regulations for space systems. “This organization will help ensure that the new Space Bureau and the Office of International Affairs stay relevant, efficient and effective over time.”
As noted at the article at the link, this reorganization appears tied to the FCC’s to expand its regulatory scope, including an attempt recently to regulate satellite operations and space junk that is clearly beyond its statutory authority. The agency’s chief counsel, Umair Javed, denied this in a quote in the article, but anyone who believes this denial is quite naive. Government agencies always try to increase their power, and if no one challenges them they are always willing do so, even into areas the law doesn’t permit them to go.
It is also clear that no one in the Biden administration has any plans to challenge Rosenworcel’s empire-building.
November 3, 2022 Quick space links
Courtesy of Jay, BtB’s stringer.
- SpaceX celebrates completion of the 200th Falcon 9 second stage
Jay also notes that according to Elon Musk, “Falcon 9 now holds record for most launches of a single vehicle type in a year.”
- Rocket Lab completes solar panels for NASA’s Lunar Gateway space station
The panels were built by the company’s “New Mexico team.”
- SLS’s rollout to the launchpad for its first test launch to begin on November 4th at noon
The launch is still scheduled for November 14th, sending an Orion capsule around the Moon for a multi-week mission.
- Orbital sensors built by HEO Robotics capture images of China’s out-of-control Long March 5B core stage
There is a two frame movie at the link, made from that imagery.
- Roscosmos shuts down the Russian Space magazine
It appears this magazine began publication in 2006, and was financed by Roscosmos. It also appears that the Russians no longer have the funds to pay for it.
Perseverance leaps forward
Click for full resolution. The original images can be found here and here.
Click for interactive map.
Cool image time! After spending several weeks at one location at the base of the delta that flowed into Jezero Crater eons ago, the science team today put the rover Perseverance into high gear, programming it to move 684 feet in one leap forward. The move worked, so that Perseverance has now climbed up onto a terrace of that delta so that it sits at the base of one of the hills that forms the delta’s head. The panorama above shows that hill. I estimate that hill is about thirty feet high, give or take 50%.
The blue dot on the map to the right shows the rover’s position. The yellow lines show the area viewed in the panorama above. The green dot shows the location of the helicopter Ingenuity.
It is almost certain that the science team will get another core sample from this location, as it is at least one layer higher on the delta, thus providing new geology for that core to document. I am guessing unfortunately. Unlike the Curiosity science team (which posts updates at least one to three times a week), the Perseverance science team posts updates at best only once a week, if that, and those posts have rarely provided information about the team’s future plans.
The panorama above is cool, but what prompted this post is the image below that the rover took after arriving at this location.
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Sunspot update: The pause in the ramp up to solar maximum continues
NOAA has once again published its monthly update of its monthly graph that tracks the number of sunspots on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere. Below is that November graph, annotated by me with some additional details added to provide context.
Though sunspot number continued to be much higher than the prediction (almost double), October saw almost exactly the same number of sunspots as seen in September, which is why this new graph seems almost identical to last month’s.
In other words, the pause in the ramp up to solar maximum, first noted in August, continues.
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Travel agency buys two Space Perspective high altitude balloon flights
Graphic of Space Perspective’s Neptune capsule.
The travel agency Cruise Planners has reserved two future 20-mile-high flights on the high altitude balloon Spaceship Neptune, being built by the Florida-based company Space Perspective.
Cruise Planners has reserved two full capsules scheduled to fly in 2025 & 2027 respectively on Spaceship Neptune.
Spaceship Neptune will differ from other spacecraft by being attached and secured to the SpaceBalloon for the entirety of the flight, making it a safe and seamless journey for the traveler. Other vessels separate mid-flight and transfer to different flight systems. According to Space Perspective, Spaceship Neptune will be lifted to space by the SpaceBalloon, powered by renewable hydrogen with no rockets and no carbon footprint. Guests won’t have the jarring blastoff that is typical of space travel, but instead will ascend steadily at 12 mph, making the experience accessible for anyone who is able to fly with a commercial airline.
Space Perspective is one of three balloon companies now planning such high altitude flights. Ticket prices will range from $50K to $125K, depending on company. At the moment Space Perspective is charging the most, but expect that to change as the competition heats up.
Mengtian moved to its permanent port on Tiangong-3
Chinese engineers today successfully shifted the new Mengtian module from its docking port to its permanent port to the side, thus completing the assembly of the major components of the Tiangong-3 space station. Shortly thereafter the six astronauts on board the station opened the hatch and entered the module.
The graphic to the right shows the station’s final arrangement, T-shaped. The station however is not fully complete, as the large vertical solar panels have not yet been installed. Based on past station work, these will probably have to be shipped up later, and installed during space walks.
NASA delays first manned Starliner mission again
NASA today announced that it has rescheduled the first manned demo mission of Boeing’s Starliner capsule to ISS from February to April, 2023.
The agency attributes the two month delay to scheduling conflicts with other visiting spacecraft at ISS. This might be true, but it also could be that Boeing wanted a little extra time to finish out the work it still needs to do to fix the anomalies that occurred on the unmanned demo mission, as well preparing the new capsule for launch.
This flight will carry two astronauts to ISS for about two weeks. The press release also noted this interesting tidbit:
The previously flown crew module, named Calypso, will be connected to a new service module later this year.
Apparently Boeing has decided to give names to these capsules, like SpaceX has. It also appears that the company and NASA are satisfied enough with the condition of the capsule after flying the unmanned demo flight to use it again for a manned mission.
Crash prediction for Long March 5B core stage narrows
Click for original image.
This morning’s report by the Aerospace Corporation has narrowed the crash time and location for China’s out-of-control Long March 5B core stage to six orbits, about 8 hours, on November 4, 2022, with the prediction centered over a point in the middle of the Indian Ocean.
The company’s graphic to the right shows the orbital tracks. Note that this prediction puts many habitable locations under risk, including parts of the United States, Spain, Africa, and Australia.
Since the crash is now expected tomorrow, expect further updates later today.
The second graphic to the right has also been created by the Aerospace Corporation. It shows the top 20 largest man-made objects that have fallen out-of-control from orbit. Four of the top six were dropped on the world by China, all within the past two years. All but one of the others occurred prior to 1987, before the U.S. and Russia took positive action to prevent such things. The one exception, Phobos-Grunt, was an unexpected failure, its rocket putting it into an unstable orbit rather than sending it to Mars.
China, like the U.S. and Russia, has signed the Outer Space Treaty. That treaty requires each signatory to control the objects it puts in space, and makes it liable for any damage caused by such objects. The U.S. and Russia have both tried very hard to abide by that treaty. China however has thumbed its nose at it.
We must wonder what China will do if this core stage kills someone when it comes down tomorrow.
American freedom sets a new yearly record for rocketry
Liberty has now also enlightened the exploration of space
Capitalism in space: In 1966, more than a half century ago, the United States government was in a desperate space race to catch up with the communist Soviet Union, which for the previous decade had been first in almost every major achievement in space, from launching the first orbital satellite, the first manned mission, the first two- and three- manned missions, and the first spacewalk.
In 1966, the NASA and the U.S. military successfully launched 70 times in their effort to catch up, a number that has remained the record for more that five decades as the most American launches in a single year.
All but one of those seventy launches were either for NASA or the military, paid for and built not for profit but for achieving the political ends of the federal government. Many of those seventy launches were also short duration technology test satellites, whose purpose once achieved ended those programs.
By the end of the 1960s, this aggressive effort had paid off, with the U.S. being the first to land humans on the Moon while matching or exceeding the Soviets in almost every major technical space challenge. The need for such an aggressive government launch program vanished.
Thus, for the next half century, the United States rarely exceeded thirty launches in a single year. This low number was further reduced by the decision in the 1970s by the federal government to shut down the entire private launch industry and require all American manned and satellite payloads to be launched on NASA’s space shuttle.
Come 2011 and the retirement of the space shuttle, all this finally changed. The federal government began a slow and painful transition in the next decade from building and launching its own rockets to buying that service from the private sector. It took awhile, but that transition finally allowed the rebirth of a new American private launch industry, led by SpaceX and its Falcon 9 rocket.
Tonight, that SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket completed the 71st launch in 2022, breaking that 1966 record by placing in orbit a commercial communications satellite. And it did it with almost two months left in the year, guaranteeing that the record has not only be broken, it will be shattered.
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November 2, 2022 Zimmerman/Batchelor podcast
Embedded below the fold in two parts.
To listen to all of John Batchelor’s podcasts, go here.
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Bob Fosse – Cuarto de la Banda
An evening pause: A very different dance number from the 1969 film Sweet Charity, the first that Bob Fosse directed.
Hat tip Judd Clark.
Freefall: an antenna company for space
Last week I had the opportunity to tour the offices space-based antenna startup Freefall, another one of Tucson’s many space-related companies.
Not surprisingly (and probably to the company’s credit), the offices and facility were themselves not that impressive. Essentially it was an open space with some areas reserved for desks and workers, and other areas where engineers could do some antenna construction and testing. In one corner was what the company’s CEO, Doug Stetson, labeled “their antenna graveyard,” past antenna experiments that were no longer needed or in use.
However, like all of these new independently-owned small aerospace companies popping up worldwide now that western governments have given up control of their space programs, what makes this company stand out is the creative innovations — both in design and manufacturing — that it brings to its products. In the case of Freefall, those products are all kinds of antennas, designed for all kinds of space-related uses.
First, there is design. The key to Freefall’s business model is its spherical dish antenna design.
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November 2, 2022 Quick space links
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay.
- Chinese pseudo-company Space Pioneer shows illustration of proposed rocket spaceplane for point-to-point transportation
This is one I’ll believe when I see something real, not an illustration.
- Last Ariane-5 launch delayed until June 2023 due to issues with payload
“The delays are the result of Covid-caused business slowdowns and the lingering effects of an arsonist attack at prime contractor OHB SE in Bremen, Germany.”
- Long March 3B launch window opens tomorrow
The payload is a Chinese communications satellite.
Vermont news outlet blacklists its own story to protect the queer agenda at a local school
WCAX: A modern news outlet, dedicated to censorship
Today’s blacklist story is a follow-up on an earlier blacklist story. In September officials running Randolph High School in Vermont banned all the girls from the school’s volley ball team from the girls locker room, so that a cross-dressing boy would have that girls dressing room all to himself.
At the time I noted how this action by the school was “so absurd that at first glance it is hard to believe.”
Well, the story has become even more absurd. The news outlet that first reported the story, WCAX-TV, decided in mid-October to blacklist its own story in order to protect and promote the queer agenda in the local schools.
But [on October 11th], links to the controversial story and a recording of the newscast from that night went instead to a page that read “404/Not Found.” When … asked about the missing content, WCAX news director Roger Garrity said the station took it down last week “to prevent others from using our reporting to attack people in the transgender community.
“We didn’t announce it then for fear it might further inflame the situation,” Garrity wrote in an email. “We are now working with LGBTQ advocates on a message to the community acknowledging the harm that was caused.” In response to follow-up questions, Garrity said the station was working with Outright Vermont and GLAAD to craft its message and would put it on the 6 p.m. newscast “as soon as we have it ready to go.”
Curiosity begins a detour
Click for interactive map.
The science team running the Curiosity rover on Mount Sharp on Mars have decided to take the rover on a detour. As shown in the overview map to the right, rather than continue climbing directly up the mountain in the canyon dubbed Gediz Vallis, they have turned the rover to the west in order to put it back on its original planned route, though traveling in the opposite direction. The goal is to get to Gediz Vallis Ridge, which the rover attempted to reach by crossing the Greenheugh Pediment back in the spring, but was forced to retreat because the ground was simply too rough for the rover’s wheels.
From their October 31st update:
We are now officially on our detour, a short round trip to image and capture geochemistry of the “Gediz Vallis ridge” up on the pediment, before coming back down to the “Marker Band valley” and rejoining the MSAR (Mount Sharp Ascent Route). This detour will allow us to access some of the area we’d planned to visit before getting turned around by the ‘gator-back’ terrain on the Greenheugh pediment. For this part of the campaign, we are prioritizing driving, getting to our destination as fast as we can, but imaging as we go and marking areas of interest for contact science as we come back down.
The panorama above, cropped and reduced to post here, shows the rover’s view uphill to get to the ridge. The blue dot marks its present position. The yellow lines mark the approximate area viewed by the panorama above.
I think the rover’s path will take it up through the saddle between the two small peaks on the left. The science team is likely hoping that once they get up over that saddle, the terrain to get to the ridge will be smoother and less treacherous than the very broken and rocky surface of the Greenheugh Pediment.
This route also appears to also get them up on the marker band more safely. That band, marked by the white arrows, is a distinct smooth layer found in many places on the flanks of Mount Sharp.
The crash of China’s Long March 5B core stage: first rough prediction
The Aerospace Corporation has made its first rough estimate of the uncontrolled reentry of the core stage of China’s Long March 5B rocket that launched the Mengtian module to its Tiangong-3 space station on October 31st.
The prediction at present is very uncertain, covering about 20 orbits (about 30 hours) centered on November 5, 2021 over the Atlantic Ocean northeast of Brazil, as shown in the graphic to the right. Though this prediction will eventually narrow down to less than one full orbit, it will never be possible to predict in advance the core stage’s exact impact point. As the margin of error shrinks, the predictions will come more frequently.
At this moment, however, the core stage’s orbit crosses over most of the habitable areas of the Earth, and thus all those regions are under threat.
Two Saudi passengers to fly on Axiom’s second commercial flight to ISS
According to one NASA official, Axiom now plans on launching two as yet unnamed Saudi passengers on AX-2, its second commercial flight to ISS scheduled to launch in May 2023 on a Dragon capsule.
The names of the two Saudis on the flight have not been released, she said, but that “we are working very hard with them on training already.” A slide for her presentation noted the two would be named after formal approval by the ISS program’s Multilateral Crew Operations Panel. That slide also stated that crew training for the mission started Oct. 17.
The Saudi Space Commission and Axiom Space separately announced Sept. 22 plans to fly two Saudi citizens on a future Axiom Space mission. However, while it was widely rumored the two would fly on Ax-2, neither announcement stated a specific mission. The Saudi statement said that one of the two people would be a woman but did not disclose how the astronauts would be selected.
Neither Axiom nor the Saudis have revealed the ticket price, though it probably runs somewhere in the range of $20 to $50 million per ticket, based on past known purchase prices by NASA and others.