Category: Behind The Black

Long March 5B core stage from July 24th launch remains in orbit

8:50 am

According to data from the U.S. Space Command, the core stage of the Long March 5B rocket used to launch China’s next large module for its Tiangong space station is still in orbit, with no indication yet that China has the ability to safely de-orbit it over the ocean in a controlled manner.

From Jonathan McDowell’s Twitter feed:

Two objects cataloged from the CZ-5B launch: 53239 / 2022-085A in a 166 x 318 km x 41.4 deg orbit, 53240 / 2022-085B in a 182 x 299 km x 41.4 deg orbit. Orbital epoch of ~1200 UTC confirms that the inert 21t rocket core stage remains in orbit and was not actively deorbited.

In all previous Long March 5B launches the core stage reached orbit, deployed its payload, and then crashed back to Earth uncontrolled a few weeks later because its engines could not be restarted. Since it is large, pieces hit the ground, but fortunately nothing landed in habitable areas. In one case however had the return occurred fifteen minutes earlier it would have landed in the New York City metropolitan area.

There were comments made during the launch countdown by Chinese officials suggesting the stage’s engine can now be restarted to allow it to be de-orbited properly, but if so there is as yet no indication that this has happened. If anything, the presence of these objects in orbit suggest otherwise.

It is also possible Chinese engineers are doing further orbital tests with both objects, and will de-orbit them properly in the next week or so. That China conducted a series of static fire tests of this stage’s engines prior to launch strongly suggested that they can now control its re-entry.

Since China won’t say, however, we can only wait and watch.

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OneWeb and Eutelsat negotiating possible merger

8:35 am

In a press release today the geosynchronous (GEO) communications satellite company Eutelsat revealed that it is negotiating a possible merger with the low Earth orbit (LEO) communications satellite company OneWeb.

The combined entity would be the first multi-orbit satellite operator offering integrated GEO and LEO solutions and would be uniquely positioned to address a booming ~$16bn (2030) Satellite Connectivity market. OneWeb is one of the two only global LEO networks and has experienced strong momentum over recent months, with service expected to be fully deployed in 2023.

The transaction would represent a logical next step in the successful partnership between Eutelsat and OneWeb, started with Eutelsat’s equity investment in OneWeb in April 2021 and deepened with the Global Distribution Agreement announced in March 2022. Eutelsat currently holds 23% of OneWeb’s share capital, alongside a consortium of high-profile public and private investors.

Under the terms of the transaction being discussed, Eutelsat and OneWeb shareholders would each hold 50% of the combined group’s shares. [emphasis mine]

This appears to be an attempt by Eutelsat to survive, since the future of geosynchronous communications satellites is presently very questionable with the arrival of the many LEO satellite constellations like OneWeb and Starlink.

Meanwhile, the highlighted words in the quote do not match reality. If anything OneWeb has stalled badly since February, when Russia invaded the Ukraine and cancelled the remaining half dozen or so scheduled OneWeb launches. OneWeb has announced new launch contracts with SpaceX and India, but because none have even been scheduled, it increasingly appears its constellation will not be operational by 2023.

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Completely misunderstanding Trump’s influence in the Republican Party

12:30 pm

In a column today at PJMedia, Rick Moran discussed in detail the battle going on right now in Arizona for control of the Republican Party. On one side we have Donald Trump and the candidates he has endorsed, led by Kari Lake for governor and Blake Masters for the Senate. On the other we have establishment candidates endorsed by former vice president Mike Pence and Arizona governor Doug Ducey.

Right now, the polls indicated strongly that the Trump side in this battle is going to win the August 2nd primary, and Moran was attempting to pinpoint the fundamental beliefs behind this rift.

The split in the Republican Party in Arizona and almost everywhere else is not a fight over issues. It’s not even a fight over Trump. It’s a fight over the perception of the party and what it means to be a Republican.

Trump defines the party in terms of loyalty to Donald Trump. And Trump defines “loyalty” as the extent to which you support him — personally and politically. Many Republicans see nothing wrong with that. Others, like Pence, see that kind of cult of personality as unconservative and dangerous. They take a far more traditional view of the Republican Party and want a return to the GOP’s roots of supporting God, low taxes, and small government.

In other words, according to Moran, ordinary Republicans are voting for Trump due to hero-worship, while establishment Republicans oppose Trump because they think such hero-worship unhealthy.

Moran’s analysis appears to represent the thinking of many Republican pundits. It also represents an analysis that is so wrong and out of touch with ordinary Republicans as to be downright laughable.

People are not voting for Trump-endorsed candidates because a childish “loyalty” to Trump. They are voting for his candidates because — based on his actions as President — they strongly believe those candidates are actually going to keep their conservative promises should they win. Trump did keep his campaign promises, and it appears he is trying to find candidates who will do the same. He knows that Republicans are sick and tired of fake conservatives like Pence and Ducey and the Bushes, who for decades have repeatedly made big conservative promises during the campaign but then have stabbed those voters in the back the minute any Democrat screamed at them.

These fakers simply don’t fight, and in Arizona, it is very clear that the candidates whom Pence and Ducey have endorsed are just another bunch of fakers. As soon as they get into office, they will forget all their conservative promises, and team up with the Democrats to maintain the failing status quo.

This is why there is a rift in the Republican Party. The established party has been a failure, and the new upstarts being touted by Trump appear willing to change that. Republican voters have come to recognize that — thanks to Trump — and are now voting accordingly, which is why an enormous number of Republican incumbents have been defeated this primary season.

It is astonishing to find that conservative pundits still don’t recognize these facts. Not only will their blindness leave them repeatedly shocked when Trump candidates win, it makes it impossible for them to understand the true dynamics behind this election season.

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Curiosity looks back

11:49 am

Curiosity looks back
Click for full image.

Overview
Click for interactive map.

Cool image time! Normally I’d be hiking today, but since it is raining in southern Arizona at every mountain location we might want to go, I am forced to imagine hiking on Mars instead. The photo above, cropped to post here, was part of a mosaic of images taken on July 22, 2022 by the right navigation camera on the rover Curiosity.

Curiosity had just completed several drives that had it skirt around those two boulders visible in the center of the picture, as shown in the inset in the overview map to the right. The yellow lines indicate the approximate area covered by the photo. The blue dot marks Curiosity’s present location. The larger red dotted line the rover’s original planned route, with the smaller dotted line my guess as to the route the science team now plans to take to return to that course.

The rim of Gale Crater can be seen in the far distance, about 20 to 30 miles away and largely obscured by the winter dust that presently fills the atmosphere.

The science team had hoped to get close enough to these two boulders to touch them with the rover’s instruments, but decided to keep away because of both appeared a bit unstable.

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SpaceX launches another 53 Starlink satellites

9:42 am

Capitalism in space: SpaceX today successfully used its Falcon 9 rocket to launch another 53 Starlink satellites into orbit.

This was the eighth flight of the first stage, which successfully landed on a drone ship in the Atlantic. This was also the company’s sixth launch in July, in only three weeks.

The leaders in the 2022 launch race:

33 SpaceX
24 China
9 Russia
5 Rocket Lab
4 ULA

American private enterprise now leads China 46 to 24 in the national rankings, and the entire world combined 46 to 40.

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China successfully launches new large module to its Tiangong space station

11:34 pm

Tiangong-3, completed
Tiangong-3 station, when completed

The new colonial movement: China on July 24, 2022 (China time) has successfully used its Long March 5B rocket to put into orbit its Wentian module, the next large section that will dock with the Tiangong station in the next day or so.

According to one announcer, the core stage will not crash to Earth in an uncontrolled manner, as in previous Long March 5B launches. However, this is China, and his statement cannot be taken at face value. We shall find out in the coming days if this is so, or whether the core stage will be a threat to habitable areas as its orbit decays.

The leaders in the 2022 launch race:

32 SpaceX
24 China
9 Russia
5 Rocket Lab
4 ULA

The U.S. still leads China 45 to 24 in the national rankings, as well as the entire globe combined 45 to 40.

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Watch China’s launch of next big module to its Tiangong space station

4:36 pm

The launch of the next big module to China’s Tiangong space station, dubbed Wentian, is scheduled for 2:15 am (eastern) tonight, using its Long March 5B rocket.

The live stream is embedded below if you want to watch. It begins at about an hour before launch.

I have added a live stream in English, below the first. One detail of importance that this broadcast has already revealed: According to one technical expert being interviewed, the core stage will not crash to Earth uncontrolled. They will be able to bring it down where and when they want.
» Read more

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China releases one photo of Phobos taken by its Tianwen-1 Mars orbiter

3:58 pm

Phobos as seen by Tianwen-1
Click to see original photo.

China today released a single photo of the Martian moon Phobos, taken by its Tianwen-1 Mars orbiter, to mark the second anniversary of the orbiter’s launch.

The English press release at the link conveniently did not provide the image to the non=Chinese world, but the Chinese language release did. That picture is to the right, reduced slightly to post here. Considering its disinterest in making it easy to find this photo for English speakers, it is intriguing that China included the English language name Opik for one crater.

Moreover, this single picture release illustrates the paucity of Tianwen-1 photos made available to the public by China. Very few have been released, and though eventually China has been making its raw data available, it has not been doing so in a manner that makes it easy for outsiders to access it.

Nonetheless, this is one of the best pictures of Phobos I have yet seen.

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NASA’s safety panel questions NASA commitment to commercial space stations

10:18 am

We’re here to help you! Not surprisingly, members of NASA’s safety panel have once again expressed doubts about NASA’s ongoing effort to encourage a thriving private, competitive, and efficient commercial space industry, this time questioning the transition from NASA’s government-built space station, ISS, to privately-built and owned space stations, four of which are presently under development.

At a July 21 meeting of the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, members said they were concerned that commercial stations whose development is being supported by NASA were unlikely to be ready in time before the ISS is retired at the end of the decade, and that those efforts suffered from insufficient budgets.

Those plans, called Commercial Leo Earth Orbit (LEO) Destinations by NASA, “are on a precarious trajectory to realization on a schedule and within the projected resources needed to maintain a NASA LEO presence,” said Patricia Sanders, chair of the panel. “This is an area of concern for us.”

The panelists also questioned how quickly the stations would be man-rated (claiming NASA was not allocating enough time to do so) as well as whether NASA had enough work for four stations.

For the past decade this safety panel has consistently shown itself to be hostile to the new commercial space companies. It has never seen any safety issues or scheduling problems with NASA’s big SLS rocket. Nor did it notice Boeing’s significant software and valve problems on Starliner. Yet somehow, the work of SpaceX was dangerous (when it was not), and now these new stations, most of which are being built by new space companies, are equally unfit for use.

It is time to shut down this panel. Or at a minimum fire its present members and bring in new blood more willing to look at the entire space industry with a more objective eye.

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A large majority of today’s college students think blacklisting is a good thing

12:14 pm

The user manual for the modern generation
The user manual for the modern generation

The modern dark age: Old-fashioned Americans, who believe in free speech and tolerance, often assume that the spate of cruel blacklisting stories that now dominate our society are merely the actions of a few isolated individuals who have happened to gain a position of power and are abusing it.

This assumption could not be more wrong. We are entering a future where blacklisting, censorship, and the abuse of power will become the norm, because apparently the new generation thinks such things are always justified, if they have been offended in any way. From a recent poll of 2,000 students at 130 colleges:

In one eye-opening finding, 74 percent of undergrads endorse the view that a professor who says “something that students find offensive” should be reported to the university. By a majority almost as lopsided, 65 percent believe that a fellow student who says something they consider offensive should be turned in. That informers’ mindset is especially pronounced among students who identify themselves as politically liberal, fully 85 percent of whom would report a professor who offends them. But even among self-identified conservatives, a solid majority, 56 percent, are of the same mindset. [emphasis in original]

» Read more

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SpaceX successfully launches another 46 Starlink satellites

10:49 am

Capitalism in space: SpaceX today successfully used its Falcon 9 rocket to place another 46 Starlink satellites into orbit.

The first stage, completing its fourth flight, landed successfully on a drone ship in the Pacific.

This was SpaceX’s 32nd launch in 2022, exceeding the record of 31 launches it set last year, and doing so only a little more than halfway through the year.

The leaders in the 2022 launch race:

32 SpaceX
23 China
9 Russia
5 Rocket Lab
4 ULA

American private enterprise now leads China 45 to 23 in the national rankings, and the entire globe combined 45 to 39.

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Collapsed dunes in Jezero Crater

10:31 am

Collapsed dune on Mars
Click for full image.

Cool image time! The photo above, cropped and reduced to post here, was taken on July 20, 2022 by one of high resolution cameras on the rover Perseverance. It shows what appears to be a collapsed dune on the floor of Jezero Crater.

The arrows mark the highest dune ridge line that suddenly ends at a cliff, with the sand that is piled up at its base appearing almost like it flowed like thick mud outward away from that cliff. Apparently, that material broke off in one single event sometime in the past.

Note the many parallel lines pointing outward from the base of the cliff. These lines appear to reflect the internal structure visible in the cliff itself. Somehow, when that sand collapsed, it flowed away while retaining some of that structure.

When this collapse happened is unclear. I don’t think it has happened recently, since Perseverance’s arrival, but I could be wrong.

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China rethinking its proposed heavy lift rocket to make it a Starship clone

9:57 am

Long March 9, now a Starship clone

Chinese rocket designers appear to be rethinking the proposed design of the Long March 9 heavy lift rocket that China is building, switching from an expendable clone of NASA’s SLS to a reusable clone of SpaceX’s Starship/Superheavy.

The original design had called for three expendable stages and four strap-on expendable boosters using kerosene fuel, and was targeting a 2030 launch. The new design is two reusable stages, with the first having 26 engines fueled by methane, and would launch by 2035.

The image to the right is a screen capture from a presentation given by a long time rocket designer in China, viewable here cued to this point. Note the two large rockets on the right. The smaller is a two stage version, while the larger is a three stage version. Both look remarkably like Starship/Superheavy.

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Isar Aerospace signs deal to launch from French Guiana

9:37 am

Capitalism in space: The German smallsat rocket startup Isar Aerospace has now signed a deal with the French space agency CNES to use one of its launchpads in French Guiana for launches of its new Spectrum rocket.

The Diamant pad was built more than a half-century ago for the French rocket of the same name, but has been dormant for decades. CNES is now working to convert the facility into a multi-user site for small launch vehicles, and Isar is the first company the agency selected in an open competition to use the site.

Isar also has a deal to launch from Norway. As recently as seven months ago the company was claiming its first test launch would occur there before the end of ’22. All told, Isar has three different launch contracts and has raised almost $200 million in investment capital.

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Draper wins NASA contract to put a lander on the Moon’s far side

9:28 am

Capitalism in space: NASA yesterday awarded a $73 million contract to the space company Draper to place a lander on the Moon’s far side by 2025.

The lander, called SERIES-2 by Draper, will deliver to Schrödinger Basin three experiments to collect seismic data, measure the heat flow and electrical conductivity of the lunar subsurface and measure electromagnetic phenomena created by the interaction of the solar wind and plasma with the lunar surface.

The mission is the eighth NASA has awarded to date as part of CLPS, but the first to go to the lunar farside. The only mission by any country to land on the far side of the moon is China’s Chang’e-4 mission, which successfully landed in Von Kármán Crater in January 2019 and deployed the Yutu 2 rover that remains operational today.

With this award, there are presently five American companies with contracts to put landers on the Moon, Intuitive Machines, Astrobotic, Firefly, and Masten. Masten however shut down operations recently. This new contract to Draper for almost the exact same amount that had been awarded to Masten appears to replace Masten in the program.

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Using the Wuhan panic to kill children

3:17 pm

Excess mortality by age
The shocking rise of excess mortality since young people
began getting the jab

The evidence continues to pour in: Not only were the authoritarian polices imposed by governments worldwide following the arrival of COVID in 2020 a total failure — doing nothing to prevent the spread of the virus — it now appears the edicts forcing millions to get the COVID jab and wear masks might very well have caused serious harm, even death, to many individuals for whom the virus posed no threat at all.

And it more and more appears that the worst victims of these failed policies were children.

The following stories, all published since my last Wuhan panic update on June 30th, point specifically to the failure of the jab:

These new research confirms many previous studies. For example, in 2021 the American Heart Association issued its own warning about mRNA vaccines, stating that this drug could “dramatically increase risk of developing heart disease.” Other earlier research can be found at my own reports on February 14th, March 23rd, March 30th, May 11th, May 13th, and June 30th. The data increasingly demonstrates that the COVID shots not only accomplished practically nothing in stopping the virus, those shots had side effects that have unnecessarily harmed possibly millions.

Similarly, studies continue to confirm what a hundred years of past research had found, that masks are essentially useless in stopping the spread of a virus such as COVID, and can actually increase your chances of getting this or other diseases.
» Read more

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SpaceX launch aborted 46 seconds before launch

11:03 am

Capitalism in space: In what has become a rare event for SpaceX, the company was forced to abort a launch of a Falcon 9 rocket today carrying 46 Starlink satellites only 46 seconds before launch.

The company has scrubbed a few launches in the past three years due to weather, but I think this is the first launch abort apparently due to a technical issue in several years.

No details were given for the abort, but whatever the issue was, it was apparently not serious, as the launch team immediately announced that they have recycled the launch to its back-up date tomorrow.

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