Category: Behind The Black
The global distribution of dust devils on Mars
Click for original image.
Scientists reviewing the dust devil tracks in orbital images produced by Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) have now created a global map that also provides insight into the ground conditions that cause the dust devils to form. From the abstract:
In the first global study of these tracks using high-resolution satellite images from 2014 to 2018, we find tracks in 4% of the images, mostly near 60° north and south latitudes. These tracks are more common during local summers, especially in the southern hemisphere, coinciding with the peak of Mars’ dust storm season, when active dust devils are also more common. Surprisingly, dust devil track (DDT) formation does not depend on elevation, indicating it is not related to the ambient atmospheric pressure. Instead, they occur in darker areas where surface dust covers coarser material, which is revealed as the dust devil moves past.
The white dots on the map above, figure 5 of the paper, shows those MRO images where dust devil tracks were seen. The redish-orange regions are where the data suggests more dust devils should occur, while the blue areas of regions of few dust devils.
The map also notes the locations where Spirit, Opportunity, and InSight landed. Opportunity clearly landed in a region that had more dust devil activity, which explains why its solar panels were cleaned off so regularly by wind. Spirit did not land in such a region, but somehow it was lucky in getting wind events that cleared its panels of dust. InSight had no such luck, and having landed in a region with little dust devil activity, its panels steadily became covered with dust, eventually forcing the end of the mission.
As the paper notes, “To maximize mission lifetimes, future solar powered assets should favor regions where we have identified numerous [dust devil tracks] and where many active [dust devils] are present.” This proposal makes sense, for many reasons. For one, it shifts missions to higher latitudes where many glacial and near-surface ice features are found. Up until now the science community has sent all the landers and rovers to the Martian dry tropics, which has no such near surface ice. For future colonies it is imperative we begin studying Mars’ wetter regions.
This study provides another practical reason for doing so.
Click for original image.
Scientists reviewing the dust devil tracks in orbital images produced by Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) have now created a global map that also provides insight into the ground conditions that cause the dust devils to form. From the abstract:
In the first global study of these tracks using high-resolution satellite images from 2014 to 2018, we find tracks in 4% of the images, mostly near 60° north and south latitudes. These tracks are more common during local summers, especially in the southern hemisphere, coinciding with the peak of Mars’ dust storm season, when active dust devils are also more common. Surprisingly, dust devil track (DDT) formation does not depend on elevation, indicating it is not related to the ambient atmospheric pressure. Instead, they occur in darker areas where surface dust covers coarser material, which is revealed as the dust devil moves past.
The white dots on the map above, figure 5 of the paper, shows those MRO images where dust devil tracks were seen. The redish-orange regions are where the data suggests more dust devils should occur, while the blue areas of regions of few dust devils.
The map also notes the locations where Spirit, Opportunity, and InSight landed. Opportunity clearly landed in a region that had more dust devil activity, which explains why its solar panels were cleaned off so regularly by wind. Spirit did not land in such a region, but somehow it was lucky in getting wind events that cleared its panels of dust. InSight had no such luck, and having landed in a region with little dust devil activity, its panels steadily became covered with dust, eventually forcing the end of the mission.
As the paper notes, “To maximize mission lifetimes, future solar powered assets should favor regions where we have identified numerous [dust devil tracks] and where many active [dust devils] are present.” This proposal makes sense, for many reasons. For one, it shifts missions to higher latitudes where many glacial and near-surface ice features are found. Up until now the science community has sent all the landers and rovers to the Martian dry tropics, which has no such near surface ice. For future colonies it is imperative we begin studying Mars’ wetter regions.
This study provides another practical reason for doing so.
Scientists: Martian gullies formed by CO2 frost, not water flows
Dry ice frost on Martian cliffs. From a 2020 post.
Click for full image.
A new analysis of the gullies found on cliffs on Mars, usually on the interior rims of craters, has concluded that carbon dioxide frost is the cause of the erosion, not ancient flows of water.
This conclusion eliminates the need for liquid flowing water in the Martian past, at least in conjunction with gullies. From the paper’s conclusion:
These results show that CO2 frost is capable of producing Martian gully morphologies. Since flows powered by this process are known to be ongoing and capable of transporting the necessary volume of material, it is the simplest explanation for their formation. Variations in the frequency and fluidity of flows could have occurred over time due to variations in the CO2 cycle. CO2-driven gully formation would indicate that there was not necessarily regular, recurring meltwater during high-obliquity periods. This removes a constraint on recent climate, and also addresses a paradox: if obliquity regularly exceeds the current value as generally thought, and if gullies formed via snow melting at high obliquity, the Late Amazonian Epoch should have included regular snowmelt and widespread aqueous processes. Gully formation by CO2 frost processes is consistent with a cold-desert Late Amazonian with rare or small amounts of liquid water and little aqueous weathering, consistent with the observed mineralogy.
…Gullies, one of the most-discussed lines of evidence for liquid water on Mars, may in fact have no direct connection to H2O. CO2 frost-fluidized gully formation also has broader implications for geomorphology, widening an emerging field of new landform types and processes without Earth analogs. Similar processes could occur on other worlds with erodible substrates on steep slopes and volatile ices at their frost point, although we currently lack the high-resolution images needed to test this hypothesis. Such ices include N2 on Pluto and Triton, and SO2 on Io. [emphasis mine]
In other words, though the gullies appear at first glance to our Earth eyes to have been caused by water flowing downhill, in fact the data now suggests the annual CO2 frost cycle of Mars is the prime cause, even in the distant past. No surface water was required. And since no one has yet come up with a good model for liquid surface water even existing in the Martian past (the atmosphere being too cold and thin), this conclusion helps eliminate this conflict.
The paper also notes the lack of water likely eliminates the need for any planetary protection efforts at these gullies, as the lack of water makes the likelihood of any microbiology nil.
As these conclusions are based on lab work and analysis of images, there remains great uncertainty. Nonetheless, the results help reinforce the arguments that the geological features we see on Mars were formed not by flowing liquid water but by other processes, such as glaciers of ice.
Dry ice frost on Martian cliffs. From a 2020 post.
Click for full image.
A new analysis of the gullies found on cliffs on Mars, usually on the interior rims of craters, has concluded that carbon dioxide frost is the cause of the erosion, not ancient flows of water.
This conclusion eliminates the need for liquid flowing water in the Martian past, at least in conjunction with gullies. From the paper’s conclusion:
These results show that CO2 frost is capable of producing Martian gully morphologies. Since flows powered by this process are known to be ongoing and capable of transporting the necessary volume of material, it is the simplest explanation for their formation. Variations in the frequency and fluidity of flows could have occurred over time due to variations in the CO2 cycle. CO2-driven gully formation would indicate that there was not necessarily regular, recurring meltwater during high-obliquity periods. This removes a constraint on recent climate, and also addresses a paradox: if obliquity regularly exceeds the current value as generally thought, and if gullies formed via snow melting at high obliquity, the Late Amazonian Epoch should have included regular snowmelt and widespread aqueous processes. Gully formation by CO2 frost processes is consistent with a cold-desert Late Amazonian with rare or small amounts of liquid water and little aqueous weathering, consistent with the observed mineralogy.
…Gullies, one of the most-discussed lines of evidence for liquid water on Mars, may in fact have no direct connection to H2O. CO2 frost-fluidized gully formation also has broader implications for geomorphology, widening an emerging field of new landform types and processes without Earth analogs. Similar processes could occur on other worlds with erodible substrates on steep slopes and volatile ices at their frost point, although we currently lack the high-resolution images needed to test this hypothesis. Such ices include N2 on Pluto and Triton, and SO2 on Io. [emphasis mine]
In other words, though the gullies appear at first glance to our Earth eyes to have been caused by water flowing downhill, in fact the data now suggests the annual CO2 frost cycle of Mars is the prime cause, even in the distant past. No surface water was required. And since no one has yet come up with a good model for liquid surface water even existing in the Martian past (the atmosphere being too cold and thin), this conclusion helps eliminate this conflict.
The paper also notes the lack of water likely eliminates the need for any planetary protection efforts at these gullies, as the lack of water makes the likelihood of any microbiology nil.
As these conclusions are based on lab work and analysis of images, there remains great uncertainty. Nonetheless, the results help reinforce the arguments that the geological features we see on Mars were formed not by flowing liquid water but by other processes, such as glaciers of ice.
May 13, 2025 Quick space links
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.
- Fire threatens city that serves Russia’s Vostochny spaceport
Video of the fire here. Russian authorities say all is under control, but that video is quite startling.
- China touts development in only 7 years of its high powered methane-fueled rocket engine
As Jay notes, “That’s because China did not do the R&D themselves!”
- Intuitive Machines claims issues with the altimeter and lighting caused its Athena lunar lander to fall over after landing
The company says the fixes are easy, but having had both of its two lunar landers tip over after landing suggests a more fundamental design flaw that is not yet addressed.
- Eutelsat’s OneWeb ground terminal as compared to SpaceX’s Starlink terminal
The tweet notes that the OneWeb terminal does not come off well when compared to Starlink.
- 75 years ago today the Bell X-1 “Glamorous Glennis” flew for the last time, piloted by Chuck Yaeger
The plane can be seen at the Air & Space Museum in Washington.
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.
- Fire threatens city that serves Russia’s Vostochny spaceport
Video of the fire here. Russian authorities say all is under control, but that video is quite startling.
- China touts development in only 7 years of its high powered methane-fueled rocket engine
As Jay notes, “That’s because China did not do the R&D themselves!”
- Intuitive Machines claims issues with the altimeter and lighting caused its Athena lunar lander to fall over after landing
The company says the fixes are easy, but having had both of its two lunar landers tip over after landing suggests a more fundamental design flaw that is not yet addressed.
- Eutelsat’s OneWeb ground terminal as compared to SpaceX’s Starlink terminal
The tweet notes that the OneWeb terminal does not come off well when compared to Starlink.
- 75 years ago today the Bell X-1 “Glamorous Glennis” flew for the last time, piloted by Chuck Yaeger
The plane can be seen at the Air & Space Museum in Washington.
Gilmour finally gets launch license from Australian bureaucrats
Australia’s commercial spaceports. Click for original map.
After several years of delays, the Australian rocket startup Gilmour Space today announced that it has finally been issued a launch license from the Australian Space Agency.
According to the company, “pending weather & final system checks, we’re on target for our launch window to open NET May 15.”
The launch will take place at Gilmour’s own Bowen spaceport on the east coast of Australia. The Eris rocket has three stages and is designed to launch smallsats similar to Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket.
It is amazing this company hasn’t gone bankrupt waiting for this launch license. It applied in 2022, hoping to launch that year. Three years later it finally gets the okay. The amount of cash it had to burn unnecessarily in those years would generally destroy most startups.
Whether the red tape in Australia will clear up in the future is decidedly unknown, especially with the election victory this month of the leftist party.
Hat tip BtB’s stringer Jay.
Australia’s commercial spaceports. Click for original map.
After several years of delays, the Australian rocket startup Gilmour Space today announced that it has finally been issued a launch license from the Australian Space Agency.
According to the company, “pending weather & final system checks, we’re on target for our launch window to open NET May 15.”
The launch will take place at Gilmour’s own Bowen spaceport on the east coast of Australia. The Eris rocket has three stages and is designed to launch smallsats similar to Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket.
It is amazing this company hasn’t gone bankrupt waiting for this launch license. It applied in 2022, hoping to launch that year. Three years later it finally gets the okay. The amount of cash it had to burn unnecessarily in those years would generally destroy most startups.
Whether the red tape in Australia will clear up in the future is decidedly unknown, especially with the election victory this month of the leftist party.
Hat tip BtB’s stringer Jay.
China launches communications test satellite
China early this morning successfully launched another communications test satellite. its Long March 3C rocket lifting off from its Xichang spaceport in southwest China.
China’s state-run press as always released little information. All we really know is that this launch has been part of a series of recent launches putting similar communications test satellites into orbit. We also don’t know where the rocket’s lower stages, which use very toxic hypergolic fuels, crashed inside China.
The leaders in the 2025 launch race:
57 SpaceX
25 China
5 Rocket Lab
5 Russia
SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 57 to 42.
China early this morning successfully launched another communications test satellite. its Long March 3C rocket lifting off from its Xichang spaceport in southwest China.
China’s state-run press as always released little information. All we really know is that this launch has been part of a series of recent launches putting similar communications test satellites into orbit. We also don’t know where the rocket’s lower stages, which use very toxic hypergolic fuels, crashed inside China.
The leaders in the 2025 launch race:
57 SpaceX
25 China
5 Rocket Lab
5 Russia
SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 57 to 42.
Pentagon raises the list of companies that can bid on space infrastructure projects to almost two dozen
Capitalism in space: In its effort to rely on the private sector for its space needs, the Pentagon yesterday added fourteen space companies to its list of eight companies that can bid on space infrastructure projects.
The latest round of companies added to the project includes Capella Space, EdgeCortix, Eutelsat America Corp. OneWeb Technologies, Fairwinds Technologies and AST Space Mobile, Illumina Computing Group, Lockheed Martin Space, MapLarge, SES Space & Defense, Skycorp, SkyFi, Ursa Space, and Viasat.
They join eight other firms that were brought on board in 2022: Aalyria Technologies, Amazon Web Services, Amazon Kuiper, Anduril, Astranis, ATLAS Space Operations, Enveil, Google, Palantir, Planet Labs, Microsoft, and SpiderOak.
Essentially, the Pentagon wants these companies to compete for contracts to build various space-based communications assets, coming up with the designs and spacecraft themselves. In this round the specific goal is to develop satellite systems that can transmit data and communications to military units anywhere on the globe.
It is puzzling however that SpaceX is not included in this list, even though all its competitors are. I suspect this is because SpaceX’s Starshield version of Starlink is covered under different military programs and contracts. Or it could be that politics forced the military to exclude it in this case. Or there could be some other reason that defies logic. Understanding the byzantine workings of the government’s bureaucracy is often impossible.
Capitalism in space: In its effort to rely on the private sector for its space needs, the Pentagon yesterday added fourteen space companies to its list of eight companies that can bid on space infrastructure projects.
The latest round of companies added to the project includes Capella Space, EdgeCortix, Eutelsat America Corp. OneWeb Technologies, Fairwinds Technologies and AST Space Mobile, Illumina Computing Group, Lockheed Martin Space, MapLarge, SES Space & Defense, Skycorp, SkyFi, Ursa Space, and Viasat.
They join eight other firms that were brought on board in 2022: Aalyria Technologies, Amazon Web Services, Amazon Kuiper, Anduril, Astranis, ATLAS Space Operations, Enveil, Google, Palantir, Planet Labs, Microsoft, and SpiderOak.
Essentially, the Pentagon wants these companies to compete for contracts to build various space-based communications assets, coming up with the designs and spacecraft themselves. In this round the specific goal is to develop satellite systems that can transmit data and communications to military units anywhere on the globe.
It is puzzling however that SpaceX is not included in this list, even though all its competitors are. I suspect this is because SpaceX’s Starshield version of Starlink is covered under different military programs and contracts. Or it could be that politics forced the military to exclude it in this case. Or there could be some other reason that defies logic. Understanding the byzantine workings of the government’s bureaucracy is often impossible.
Lockheed Martin invests in new solid-fueled rocket startup
In its most recent fund-raising round, the solid-fueled rocket startup X-Bow (pronounced “crossbow”) raised $35 million in private investment capital, with Lockheed Martin being the largest investor.
Lockheed Martin’s involvement marks a deepening interest in securing alternative sources for solid rocket motors, components that are increasingly vital to a wide range of U.S. missile systems, including hypersonic weapons. The investment comes three years after Lockheed’s attempt to acquire Aerojet Rocketdyne was blocked by the Federal Trade Commission on antitrust grounds. Aerojet was later bought by L3Harris Technologies, leaving Lockheed without a vertically integrated propulsion supplier.
Nor is this the first time that Lockheed Martin has invested in a rocket startup. It had previously invested in ABL and Orbex, both liquid-fueled but struggling or failing, as well as the much more successful Rocket Lab. It has also invested in the orbital tug startup Orbit Fab, the orbital capsule company Inversion Space, and the satellite startup Terran Orbital, which it ended up buying entirely.
All in all, Lockheed Martin appears determined to join the new wave of space startups, if not by doing it itself but by buying into the successes of new startups. So far this has not entirely paid off, but it does appear to be, in the long term, a viable strategy to keep Lockheed Martin competitive and in the game.
In its most recent fund-raising round, the solid-fueled rocket startup X-Bow (pronounced “crossbow”) raised $35 million in private investment capital, with Lockheed Martin being the largest investor.
Lockheed Martin’s involvement marks a deepening interest in securing alternative sources for solid rocket motors, components that are increasingly vital to a wide range of U.S. missile systems, including hypersonic weapons. The investment comes three years after Lockheed’s attempt to acquire Aerojet Rocketdyne was blocked by the Federal Trade Commission on antitrust grounds. Aerojet was later bought by L3Harris Technologies, leaving Lockheed without a vertically integrated propulsion supplier.
Nor is this the first time that Lockheed Martin has invested in a rocket startup. It had previously invested in ABL and Orbex, both liquid-fueled but struggling or failing, as well as the much more successful Rocket Lab. It has also invested in the orbital tug startup Orbit Fab, the orbital capsule company Inversion Space, and the satellite startup Terran Orbital, which it ended up buying entirely.
All in all, Lockheed Martin appears determined to join the new wave of space startups, if not by doing it itself but by buying into the successes of new startups. So far this has not entirely paid off, but it does appear to be, in the long term, a viable strategy to keep Lockheed Martin competitive and in the game.
NASA engineers end second super pressure balloon flight early
Flight path of second super pressure balloon test
Due to an issue with its power system, NASA engineers today decided to end its second super pressure balloon flight this year after only nine days, when the balloon crossed over South America and thus allowing them to recover it safely.
Although the balloon performed well and the mission successfully met its minimum requirements toward qualification of the balloon system, an issue with the power system aboard the balloon gondola prompted the team to terminate the mission early as a precaution. The team had been monitoring a power failure in one of the redundant charging systems since May 8. “Despite the loss of one of the redundant charging systems, the remaining power system was performing very well and still able to sustain the batteries and electrical equipment over the course of the mission,” said Hamilton. “However, to be cautious, the team opted to end the flight early to get the equipment back, so we can do a full failure analysis.”
After identifying a safe area and coordinating with Argentinian officials, the flight was safely terminated. Recovery of the balloon and payload is in progress.
The first flight flew for seventeen days, circling the globe at the high southern latitudes. In that case issues with the balloon caused the flight to be terminated while it was over the ocean, preventing recovery. As the goal with both flights was to fly for 100 days, neither came close to that target.
Flight path of second super pressure balloon test
Due to an issue with its power system, NASA engineers today decided to end its second super pressure balloon flight this year after only nine days, when the balloon crossed over South America and thus allowing them to recover it safely.
Although the balloon performed well and the mission successfully met its minimum requirements toward qualification of the balloon system, an issue with the power system aboard the balloon gondola prompted the team to terminate the mission early as a precaution. The team had been monitoring a power failure in one of the redundant charging systems since May 8. “Despite the loss of one of the redundant charging systems, the remaining power system was performing very well and still able to sustain the batteries and electrical equipment over the course of the mission,” said Hamilton. “However, to be cautious, the team opted to end the flight early to get the equipment back, so we can do a full failure analysis.”
After identifying a safe area and coordinating with Argentinian officials, the flight was safely terminated. Recovery of the balloon and payload is in progress.
The first flight flew for seventeen days, circling the globe at the high southern latitudes. In that case issues with the balloon caused the flight to be terminated while it was over the ocean, preventing recovery. As the goal with both flights was to fly for 100 days, neither came close to that target.
NASA releases thermal image of Mars taken by Europa Clipper
Click for original image.
NASA yesterday released a thermal image of Mars taken by during Europa Clipper’s March 1, 2025 fly-by of the red planet on its way to Jupiter. From the caption:
This picture of Mars is a composite of several images captured by Europa Clipper’s thermal imager on March 1. Bright regions are relatively warm, with temperatures of about 32 degrees Fahrenheit (0 degrees Celsius). Darker areas are colder. The darkest region at the top is the northern polar cap and is about minus 190 F (minus 125 C).
The press release doesn’t identify the bullseye feature on the left. I think the bright area inside the bullseye might be the shield volcano Syrtis Major, with the dark area to the right Isidis Basin, which means this is also a snapshot of Perseverance, sitting on the basin’s western perimeter. The dark feature on the right edge of the image might be the giant volcano Elysium Mons. These however are total guesses and likely wrong.
The mission team used this fly-by to test the spacecraft’s science instruments, and have so far found all to be working as expected.
Europa Clipper will do one more fly-by of Earth in December 2026, allowing it to reach Jupiter in April 2030.
Click for original image.
NASA yesterday released a thermal image of Mars taken by during Europa Clipper’s March 1, 2025 fly-by of the red planet on its way to Jupiter. From the caption:
This picture of Mars is a composite of several images captured by Europa Clipper’s thermal imager on March 1. Bright regions are relatively warm, with temperatures of about 32 degrees Fahrenheit (0 degrees Celsius). Darker areas are colder. The darkest region at the top is the northern polar cap and is about minus 190 F (minus 125 C).
The press release doesn’t identify the bullseye feature on the left. I think the bright area inside the bullseye might be the shield volcano Syrtis Major, with the dark area to the right Isidis Basin, which means this is also a snapshot of Perseverance, sitting on the basin’s western perimeter. The dark feature on the right edge of the image might be the giant volcano Elysium Mons. These however are total guesses and likely wrong.
The mission team used this fly-by to test the spacecraft’s science instruments, and have so far found all to be working as expected.
Europa Clipper will do one more fly-by of Earth in December 2026, allowing it to reach Jupiter in April 2030.
SpaceX launches twice last night, with one launch using first stage for record 28th time
SpaceX last night successfully placed more than fifty Starlink satellites into orbit, launching Falcon 9 rockets from opposite coasts with one using first stage for record 28th time.
First the company placed 26 Starlink satellites into orbit from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, the first stage completing its sixth flight by landing softly on a drone ship in the Pacific.
Four hours later the company placed 28 Starlink satellites into orbit from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, the first stage completing its 28th flight by landing safely on a drone ship in the Atlantic. Not only did this set a new record for reflights by a Falcon 9 first stage, it matched the number of flights of the space shuttle Columbia (the last of which ended in its destruction). Columbia took 22 years to complete those flights. This booster took less than four years to do the same. And it is still viable and has the chance (along with several other Falcon 9 first stages) of eventually beating the flight records of the shuttles Discover (39 flights) and Atlantis (33).
The leaders in the 2025 launch race:
57 SpaceX
24 China
5 Rocket Lab
5 Russia
SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 57 to 41.
SpaceX last night successfully placed more than fifty Starlink satellites into orbit, launching Falcon 9 rockets from opposite coasts with one using first stage for record 28th time.
First the company placed 26 Starlink satellites into orbit from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, the first stage completing its sixth flight by landing softly on a drone ship in the Pacific.
Four hours later the company placed 28 Starlink satellites into orbit from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, the first stage completing its 28th flight by landing safely on a drone ship in the Atlantic. Not only did this set a new record for reflights by a Falcon 9 first stage, it matched the number of flights of the space shuttle Columbia (the last of which ended in its destruction). Columbia took 22 years to complete those flights. This booster took less than four years to do the same. And it is still viable and has the chance (along with several other Falcon 9 first stages) of eventually beating the flight records of the shuttles Discover (39 flights) and Atlantis (33).
The leaders in the 2025 launch race:
57 SpaceX
24 China
5 Rocket Lab
5 Russia
SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 57 to 41.
Milk’n Blues – Miss You & Another Brick in the Wall
May 12, 2025 Quick space links
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.
- Rocket Lab begins engine burns on its Pioneer service module for the return of Varda’s third orbiting commercial capsule
It will land in the Koonibba Test Range in South Australia.
- Vast touts the on-going testing of the primary structure for its Haven-1 space module
The launch is still targeting May 2026.
- Astronomers use Webb to study Jupiter’s aurora
As usual, the data didn’t match the predictions, and left them with more questions than answers.
- SpaceX does 60-second static fire test of Starshp prototype set to launch on 9th test flight
I’m seeing speculations that the targeted launch date is now May 20, 2025.
- Canadian company MDA Space contemplates finding a new customer for its robot arm should Lunar Gateway be cancelled
They have four American commercial stations plus India’s space station as potential customers.
- Russian space historian says there is a small chance that the Venera capsule that just came back to Earth might be floating in the Indian Ocean and could be picked up by a passing ship
The image at the link indicates that the capsule did come down near major shipping lanes.
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.
- Rocket Lab begins engine burns on its Pioneer service module for the return of Varda’s third orbiting commercial capsule
It will land in the Koonibba Test Range in South Australia.
- Vast touts the on-going testing of the primary structure for its Haven-1 space module
The launch is still targeting May 2026.
- Astronomers use Webb to study Jupiter’s aurora
As usual, the data didn’t match the predictions, and left them with more questions than answers.
- SpaceX does 60-second static fire test of Starshp prototype set to launch on 9th test flight
I’m seeing speculations that the targeted launch date is now May 20, 2025.
- Canadian company MDA Space contemplates finding a new customer for its robot arm should Lunar Gateway be cancelled
They have four American commercial stations plus India’s space station as potential customers.
- Russian space historian says there is a small chance that the Venera capsule that just came back to Earth might be floating in the Indian Ocean and could be picked up by a passing ship
The image at the link indicates that the capsule did come down near major shipping lanes.
Poland completes suborbital test launch
A consortium of Polish private and public institutions announced on May 9, 2025 that it had successfully completed a suborbital rocket launch on April 15, 2025, testing the first stage of a planned three-stage suborbital rocket.
According to a separate release from ZPS Gamrat [one of the consortium partners], the rocket exceeded an altitude of 10 kilometres before being destroyed by its onboard flight termination system, as planned. The goal of the test was to validate the rocket’s navigation and control systems, engine performance under flight conditions, flight termination system, telemetry systems, and aerodynamic characteristics. According to the WITU release, teams are currently analysing the data collected during the flight.
The next flight will add the second stage, and is targeting a launch this summer. If successful, the third launch using all three stages will take place before the end of the year.
This solid-fueled rocket is essentially a re-invention of the Scout suborbital rockets that NASA (and its predecessor the N.A.C.A) tested and flew many times out of Wallops Island in the 1950s and 1960s. Those test flights tested many basic components used in orbital rockets today, while also doing short suborbital science research each flight. It appears Poland aims to do the same thing now.
A consortium of Polish private and public institutions announced on May 9, 2025 that it had successfully completed a suborbital rocket launch on April 15, 2025, testing the first stage of a planned three-stage suborbital rocket.
According to a separate release from ZPS Gamrat [one of the consortium partners], the rocket exceeded an altitude of 10 kilometres before being destroyed by its onboard flight termination system, as planned. The goal of the test was to validate the rocket’s navigation and control systems, engine performance under flight conditions, flight termination system, telemetry systems, and aerodynamic characteristics. According to the WITU release, teams are currently analysing the data collected during the flight.
The next flight will add the second stage, and is targeting a launch this summer. If successful, the third launch using all three stages will take place before the end of the year.
This solid-fueled rocket is essentially a re-invention of the Scout suborbital rockets that NASA (and its predecessor the N.A.C.A) tested and flew many times out of Wallops Island in the 1950s and 1960s. Those test flights tested many basic components used in orbital rockets today, while also doing short suborbital science research each flight. It appears Poland aims to do the same thing now.
China launches classified satellites for military remote sensing
China today successfully launched a set of classified satellites (number classified) for doing military remote sensing, its Long March 6 rocket lifting off from its Taiyuan spaceport in north China.
As usual, China’s state-run press released little information about the satellites, the launch, or where the rocket’s core stage and four strap-on boosters crashed inside China. The report did state the Long March 6 was “modified,” but did not detail how. One wonders if China has done something to improve the rocket’s upper stage, which reaches orbit and has had a tendency to break up shortly thereafter, creating large clouds of space junk.
The leaders in the 2025 launch race:
55 SpaceX
24 China
5 Rocket Lab
5 Russia
SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 55 to 41.
China today successfully launched a set of classified satellites (number classified) for doing military remote sensing, its Long March 6 rocket lifting off from its Taiyuan spaceport in north China.
As usual, China’s state-run press released little information about the satellites, the launch, or where the rocket’s core stage and four strap-on boosters crashed inside China. The report did state the Long March 6 was “modified,” but did not detail how. One wonders if China has done something to improve the rocket’s upper stage, which reaches orbit and has had a tendency to break up shortly thereafter, creating large clouds of space junk.
The leaders in the 2025 launch race:
55 SpaceX
24 China
5 Rocket Lab
5 Russia
SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 55 to 41.
Crash prediction for Venera failed lander now reduced to four hours
Click for original image.
UPDATE: According to several reports today such as this one, the spacecraft ended up burning up over the Indian Ocean west of Indonesia at 2:24 am (Eastern) on May 10, 2025. It remains unclear whether it can be salvaged in any way.
————————-
The Aerospace Corporation’s prediction for the final uncontrolled re-entry of the Soviet Union’s 1972 failed Venus lander Venera has now been reduced to four hours, centered above the Indian Ocean near Indonesia, as shown on the map to the right, at around 1:29 pm Eastern.
This prediction however has great uncertainty, and will change in the next few hours. However, based on the orbits depicted, there is a good chance the lander will come down over either Europe or Asia.
As it was designed to survive the very thick and very hot atmosphere of Venus, there is also a good chance it will survive its uncontrolled re-entry through Earth’s atmosphere. Since Russia inherited all the assets of the Soviet Union, it will be responsible for any damage the lander does, as per the Outer Space Treaty.
Click for original image.
UPDATE: According to several reports today such as this one, the spacecraft ended up burning up over the Indian Ocean west of Indonesia at 2:24 am (Eastern) on May 10, 2025. It remains unclear whether it can be salvaged in any way.
————————-
The Aerospace Corporation’s prediction for the final uncontrolled re-entry of the Soviet Union’s 1972 failed Venus lander Venera has now been reduced to four hours, centered above the Indian Ocean near Indonesia, as shown on the map to the right, at around 1:29 pm Eastern.
This prediction however has great uncertainty, and will change in the next few hours. However, based on the orbits depicted, there is a good chance the lander will come down over either Europe or Asia.
As it was designed to survive the very thick and very hot atmosphere of Venus, there is also a good chance it will survive its uncontrolled re-entry through Earth’s atmosphere. Since Russia inherited all the assets of the Soviet Union, it will be responsible for any damage the lander does, as per the Outer Space Treaty.
SpaceX completes two launches today
SpaceX successfully completed two Starlink launches today.
First, it placed 26 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California. The first stage completed its fourteenth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.
Next, it launched another 28 Starlink satellites from Cape Canaveral in Florida. The Falcon 9 first stage completed its eleventh flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.
The leaders in the 2025 launch race:
55 SpaceX
23 China
5 Rocket Lab
5 Russia
SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 55 to 40.
SpaceX successfully completed two Starlink launches today.
First, it placed 26 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California. The first stage completed its fourteenth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.
Next, it launched another 28 Starlink satellites from Cape Canaveral in Florida. The Falcon 9 first stage completed its eleventh flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.
The leaders in the 2025 launch race:
55 SpaceX
23 China
5 Rocket Lab
5 Russia
SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 55 to 40.
May 9, 2025 Zimmerman/Batchelor podcast
Embedded below the fold in two parts.
To listen to all of John Batchelor’s podcasts, go here.
» Read more
Embedded below the fold in two parts.
To listen to all of John Batchelor’s podcasts, go here.
» Read more
North By Northwest (1959) Filming Locations, then and now
An evening pause: Put together by NYC in Film. For the background of how they relocated each location see here.
Hat tip Wayne DeVette.
May 9, 2025 Quick space links
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.
- Astronomers claim to have detected a star being destroyed by a black hole
I found all the actual data in the press releases of this story to be exceedingly confused and uncertain, but Jay thought it worth a quick link, especially because some news outlets are covering it.
- Video showing the moment Northrop Grumman’s Mission Extension Vehicle (MEV-1) undocked from Intelsat satellite
MEV-1 had docked to the satellite’s engine nozzle (useless because it was out of fuel) and acted as a service module to extend the satellite’s life by five years.
- Politico claims without proof that Trump will revive National Space Council
The claim might turn out true, but this “news article” contains no source from anyone in the Trump administration backing up the claim.
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.
- Astronomers claim to have detected a star being destroyed by a black hole
I found all the actual data in the press releases of this story to be exceedingly confused and uncertain, but Jay thought it worth a quick link, especially because some news outlets are covering it.
- Video showing the moment Northrop Grumman’s Mission Extension Vehicle (MEV-1) undocked from Intelsat satellite
MEV-1 had docked to the satellite’s engine nozzle (useless because it was out of fuel) and acted as a service module to extend the satellite’s life by five years.
- Politico claims without proof that Trump will revive National Space Council
The claim might turn out true, but this “news article” contains no source from anyone in the Trump administration backing up the claim.
Academics in space community scheme to continue their racist DEI policies
A letter sent out yesterday by the Universities Space Research Association (USRA) clearly illustrated the bigoted desire of our modern Marxist academic community to continue its racist Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) policies in hiring by hiding or renaming them so that the Trump administration might not notice.
USRA is one of several university consortiums that manage a variety of space, science, and astronomical operations for the government. In USRA’s case, it manages the Lunar Planetary Institute (LPI) for NASA.
The letter purported to announce how the organization was complying with Trump’s executive orders banning such race-based programs, but instead revealed its desire to continue them, but to do so under the table where no one could monitor them.
» Read more
A letter sent out yesterday by the Universities Space Research Association (USRA) clearly illustrated the bigoted desire of our modern Marxist academic community to continue its racist Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) policies in hiring by hiding or renaming them so that the Trump administration might not notice.
USRA is one of several university consortiums that manage a variety of space, science, and astronomical operations for the government. In USRA’s case, it manages the Lunar Planetary Institute (LPI) for NASA.
The letter purported to announce how the organization was complying with Trump’s executive orders banning such race-based programs, but instead revealed its desire to continue them, but to do so under the table where no one could monitor them.
» Read more
China hints that it is moving forward with expansion of Tiangong-3 space station
According to a statement by one Chinese official, China will use its Long March 5B rocket to soon launch more modules to its Tiangong-3 space station, expanding the station’s size considerably.
“According to the plan, the Long March 5B rocket will also carry out the future launches of additional modules for the crewed space station,” Wang Jue from China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) told China Central Television (CCTV) April 30. No official timeline has been released for the missions, but the comments appear to confirm plans to add modules to Tiangong, a T-shaped, three-module orbital outpost constructed across 2021-2022.
In 2022 China had hinted on this same plan, but it is three years later and nothing has yet happened. It could be this statement was an attempt at lobbying by this official, trying to convince the government to finance the new modules. Or it could be the first new module, a hub with six docking ports that will allow the additional fullsize modules to be attached, is nearing completion and launch.
Who knows? One must take all such proclamations from China with a grain of salt.
The article also notes the revisions to the Long March 5B rocket so that its core stage no longer reaches orbit to subsequently crash uncontrolled somewhere on Earth. Instead, the upper stage has been upgraded so that it gets the payload into orbit and the core stage shuts down earlier and thus falls into the ocean immediately after launch.
Hat tip to BtB’s stringer Jay.
According to a statement by one Chinese official, China will use its Long March 5B rocket to soon launch more modules to its Tiangong-3 space station, expanding the station’s size considerably.
“According to the plan, the Long March 5B rocket will also carry out the future launches of additional modules for the crewed space station,” Wang Jue from China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) told China Central Television (CCTV) April 30. No official timeline has been released for the missions, but the comments appear to confirm plans to add modules to Tiangong, a T-shaped, three-module orbital outpost constructed across 2021-2022.
In 2022 China had hinted on this same plan, but it is three years later and nothing has yet happened. It could be this statement was an attempt at lobbying by this official, trying to convince the government to finance the new modules. Or it could be the first new module, a hub with six docking ports that will allow the additional fullsize modules to be attached, is nearing completion and launch.
Who knows? One must take all such proclamations from China with a grain of salt.
The article also notes the revisions to the Long March 5B rocket so that its core stage no longer reaches orbit to subsequently crash uncontrolled somewhere on Earth. Instead, the upper stage has been upgraded so that it gets the payload into orbit and the core stage shuts down earlier and thus falls into the ocean immediately after launch.
Hat tip to BtB’s stringer Jay.
Rocket Lab’s as-yet unlaunched new Neutron rocket gets military contract
Graphic showing Neutron landing on Rocket Lab’s
barge
Capitalism in space: Rocket Lab has won a contract from the Air Force to test the use of its new Neutron rocket for tranporting cargo quickly across the globe, despite the fact that the rocket won’t make its first launch until later this year, at the earliest.
The mission, slated for no earlier than 2026, will fall under the Air Force Research Laboratory’s (AFRL) “rocket cargo” program, which explores how commercial launch vehicles might one day deliver materiel to any point on Earth within hours—a vision akin to airlift logistics via spaceflight.
…The cargo test would be a “survivability experiment.” Neutron is expected to carry a payload that will re-enter Earth’s atmosphere, demonstrating the rocket’s ability to safely transport and deploy cargo.
Neutron is designed to bring its first stage back to a vertical landing on Earth for re-use, similar to what SpaceX does with its Falcon 9. Unlike the Falcon 9, however, Neutron’s fairings remain attached to the rocket, opening and closing like alligator jaws to deploy its satellite payloads. Since it brings the fairing back attached to the rocket and closed after satellite deployment, the plan will be to see if it can carry within this enclosed fairing this Air Force test payload and bring it back unscathed.
This contract suggests the military is very confident that Neutron will fly as planned, and will succeed in its early launches.
Graphic showing Neutron landing on Rocket Lab’s
barge
Capitalism in space: Rocket Lab has won a contract from the Air Force to test the use of its new Neutron rocket for tranporting cargo quickly across the globe, despite the fact that the rocket won’t make its first launch until later this year, at the earliest.
The mission, slated for no earlier than 2026, will fall under the Air Force Research Laboratory’s (AFRL) “rocket cargo” program, which explores how commercial launch vehicles might one day deliver materiel to any point on Earth within hours—a vision akin to airlift logistics via spaceflight.
…The cargo test would be a “survivability experiment.” Neutron is expected to carry a payload that will re-enter Earth’s atmosphere, demonstrating the rocket’s ability to safely transport and deploy cargo.
Neutron is designed to bring its first stage back to a vertical landing on Earth for re-use, similar to what SpaceX does with its Falcon 9. Unlike the Falcon 9, however, Neutron’s fairings remain attached to the rocket, opening and closing like alligator jaws to deploy its satellite payloads. Since it brings the fairing back attached to the rocket and closed after satellite deployment, the plan will be to see if it can carry within this enclosed fairing this Air Force test payload and bring it back unscathed.
This contract suggests the military is very confident that Neutron will fly as planned, and will succeed in its early launches.
Crash prediction for Soviet-era Venus probe narrows
Click for original image.
The prediction for when and where a 1972 Soviet-era failed Venus lander will crash back on Earth has now narrowed to an eight hour period on May 10, 2025, centered at 1:54 pm (Eastern).
The map to the right, from the Aerospace Corporation, shows the orbital path of the lander for the Venera lander, covering its last six orbits. Though the center of the prediction would have the lander come down over the Atlantic, that orbit has it crossing parts of South America, all of Europe, much of Asia and India, and Australia.
The lander failed to leave Earth orbit when it was launched in 1972, and has been circling the Earth since. As it was designed to survive the very thick and hot atmosphere of Venus, it is likely to survive re-entry through Earth’s more benign atmosphere.
This prediction will narrow continuously for the rest of the day. I will post an update this evening.
Click for original image.
The prediction for when and where a 1972 Soviet-era failed Venus lander will crash back on Earth has now narrowed to an eight hour period on May 10, 2025, centered at 1:54 pm (Eastern).
The map to the right, from the Aerospace Corporation, shows the orbital path of the lander for the Venera lander, covering its last six orbits. Though the center of the prediction would have the lander come down over the Atlantic, that orbit has it crossing parts of South America, all of Europe, much of Asia and India, and Australia.
The lander failed to leave Earth orbit when it was launched in 1972, and has been circling the Earth since. As it was designed to survive the very thick and hot atmosphere of Venus, it is likely to survive re-entry through Earth’s more benign atmosphere.
This prediction will narrow continuously for the rest of the day. I will post an update this evening.
Tokyo Groove Jyoshi – Funk No. 1
May 8, 2025 Quick space links
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.
This is late because I was stuck in a doctor’s office for an extra two hours because the idiots misplaced my file. (Ain’t it great how Obamacare digitized all medical records so they would never get lost?)
- Startup Interlune unveils fullscale prototype of its planned lunar excavator
The company also announced it has a contract with the Department of Energy to deliver lunar helium-3 to the agency by April 2029. Exciting, but it all relies on Starship getting built and flying.
- French article [translated by Google] says China has abandoned its plan to send Tianwen-4 to Uranus after flying past Jupiter; Instead it will focus on Jupiter’s moon Calisto
Target launch date is 2030.
- Long March 12 launch scrubbed, rocket rolled back to assembly building
Jay says there are rumors it had “failures during fueling.”
- Updated prediction for uncontrolled re-entry of 1972 Soviet Venera lander now targets May 10th
The margin of error is still large, almost 9 hours before or after, which essentially means there is as yet no way to predict where it will fall.
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.
This is late because I was stuck in a doctor’s office for an extra two hours because the idiots misplaced my file. (Ain’t it great how Obamacare digitized all medical records so they would never get lost?)
- Startup Interlune unveils fullscale prototype of its planned lunar excavator
The company also announced it has a contract with the Department of Energy to deliver lunar helium-3 to the agency by April 2029. Exciting, but it all relies on Starship getting built and flying.
- French article [translated by Google] says China has abandoned its plan to send Tianwen-4 to Uranus after flying past Jupiter; Instead it will focus on Jupiter’s moon Calisto
Target launch date is 2030.
- Long March 12 launch scrubbed, rocket rolled back to assembly building
Jay says there are rumors it had “failures during fueling.”
- Updated prediction for uncontrolled re-entry of 1972 Soviet Venera lander now targets May 10th
The margin of error is still large, almost 9 hours before or after, which essentially means there is as yet no way to predict where it will fall.
Bright material on the high points of a Martian mountain
Click for original image.
Today’s cool image is mostly an example of the present unknowns of Mars. The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on April 2, 2025 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).
The science team quite rightly labels this vaguely as “bright materials,” referring to the bright rim of that crater as well as the scattered bright patches on the surrounding plain. This vagueness tells us that the scientists don’t have enough data yet to definitively identify this stuff, though they know it is distinctly unique because of its inexplicable bright albedo compared to everything around it.
That the crater rim (as well as all the crater rims in the full picture) exhibit this same brightness suggests this material was excavated from below when the impacts hit. The surrounding patches suggest that erosion has exposed this buried material at these points.
» Read more
Click for original image.
Today’s cool image is mostly an example of the present unknowns of Mars. The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on April 2, 2025 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).
The science team quite rightly labels this vaguely as “bright materials,” referring to the bright rim of that crater as well as the scattered bright patches on the surrounding plain. This vagueness tells us that the scientists don’t have enough data yet to definitively identify this stuff, though they know it is distinctly unique because of its inexplicable bright albedo compared to everything around it.
That the crater rim (as well as all the crater rims in the full picture) exhibit this same brightness suggests this material was excavated from below when the impacts hit. The surrounding patches suggest that erosion has exposed this buried material at these points.
» Read more
Israeli non-profit suspends its effort to build a second Beresheet lunar lander
The Israeli non-profit, SpaceIL, has now suspended its effort to build a second Beresheet lunar lander, citing an inability to raise funds for the project.
SpaceIL had built Beresheet-1, which in 2019 successfully reached lunar orbit, only to crash when it attempted to soft land.
The project’s budget was expected to be similar to that of Beresheet 1, which cost approximately $100 million. Most of the funding came from a group of donors led by Patrick Drahi and Morris Kahn, the primary backer of the original mission. However, in mid-2023, the donor group announced it would no longer support the project. SpaceIL launched an urgent effort to find alternative funding, but the outbreak of war on October 7, 2023, made fundraising even more challenging.
The organization’s board of directors repeatedly extended deadlines to secure funding, but by the final deadline—March 2025—the necessary funds had not been raised, forcing the suspension of the project.
A number of SpaceIL’s engineers on Beresheet-1 left the company after its failure to instead form their own Isreali company that partnered with Firefly to build the successful lunar lander Blue Ghost. I suspect their departure was a major reason why the original investors left, and no others could be found.
SpaceIL continues to do non-profit educational work in Israel. Though it claims its lunar lander project is not dead but merely suspended, it is almost certain it will never fly.
The Israeli non-profit, SpaceIL, has now suspended its effort to build a second Beresheet lunar lander, citing an inability to raise funds for the project.
SpaceIL had built Beresheet-1, which in 2019 successfully reached lunar orbit, only to crash when it attempted to soft land.
The project’s budget was expected to be similar to that of Beresheet 1, which cost approximately $100 million. Most of the funding came from a group of donors led by Patrick Drahi and Morris Kahn, the primary backer of the original mission. However, in mid-2023, the donor group announced it would no longer support the project. SpaceIL launched an urgent effort to find alternative funding, but the outbreak of war on October 7, 2023, made fundraising even more challenging.
The organization’s board of directors repeatedly extended deadlines to secure funding, but by the final deadline—March 2025—the necessary funds had not been raised, forcing the suspension of the project.
A number of SpaceIL’s engineers on Beresheet-1 left the company after its failure to instead form their own Isreali company that partnered with Firefly to build the successful lunar lander Blue Ghost. I suspect their departure was a major reason why the original investors left, and no others could be found.
SpaceIL continues to do non-profit educational work in Israel. Though it claims its lunar lander project is not dead but merely suspended, it is almost certain it will never fly.
Update on Vast’s space station plans
Haven-2 station once completed
Link here. The article provides a very detailed look at Vast’s short and long range plans, including its overall strategy to win NASA’s full space station construction contract by first building, launching, and occupying its small scale Haven-1 station and thus demonstrating it is the right company for NASA to finance its full scale Haven-2 rotating space station (shown in the graphic to the right).
The article notes that Vast intends to complete Haven-1’s primary structure in July, and do environmental and vibration ground testing from January to March 2026, with its planned launch on a Falcon 9 rocket in May 2026. Once launched it plans to put crews on board for a total of 30-days (though it is unclear at this moment whether that will be a single mission or a series of shorter flights).
In addition, the article reveals that the company also hopes to do two spin tests of Haven-1, testing its ability to rotate and create an artificial gravity. That aligns with the goal of Vast’s full scale Haven-2 station, which it wants to rotate as well. Since the plan is to assembly Haven-2 from upgraded Haven-1 modules, these spin tests are essential for proving the larger station’s design.
Based on this new information, I think we can now map out the evolving but still subject-to-change manned operations at Haven-1, comprising several short 3-5 day manned missions. The first will the crew test the module’s operation. The next two will be to do these spin tests, with people on board.
Vast’s strategy is fundamentally different than the other proposed stations (all listed below). Instead of taking a small NASA development grant to create designs on paper, it is spending its own money to actually launch a demonstration station. If successful, this strategy will make it very easy for NASA to pick it when the time comes to award the larger station construction contracts.
My present rankings for the four proposed commercial stations:
- Haven-1, being built by Vast, with no NASA funds. The company is moving fast, with Haven-1 to launch and be occupied in 2026 for an estimated 30 days total. It hopes this actual hardware and manned mission will put it in the lead to win NASA’s phase 2 contract, from which it will build its much larger mult-module Haven-2 station..
- Axiom, being built by Axiom, has launched three tourist flights to ISS, with a fourth scheduled for early June, carrying passengers from India, Hungary, and Poland. Though there have been rumors it has cash flow issues, development of its first module has been proceeding more or less as planned.
- Starlab, being built by a consortium led by Voyager Space, Airbus, and Northrop Grumman, with an extensive partnership agreement with the European Space Agency. It recently had its station design approved by NASA.
- Orbital Reef, being built by a consortium led by Blue Origin and Sierra Space. Overall, Blue Origin has built almost nothing, while Sierra Space has successfully tested its inflatable modules, including a full scale version, and appears ready to start building its module for launch.
Haven-2 station once completed
Link here. The article provides a very detailed look at Vast’s short and long range plans, including its overall strategy to win NASA’s full space station construction contract by first building, launching, and occupying its small scale Haven-1 station and thus demonstrating it is the right company for NASA to finance its full scale Haven-2 rotating space station (shown in the graphic to the right).
The article notes that Vast intends to complete Haven-1’s primary structure in July, and do environmental and vibration ground testing from January to March 2026, with its planned launch on a Falcon 9 rocket in May 2026. Once launched it plans to put crews on board for a total of 30-days (though it is unclear at this moment whether that will be a single mission or a series of shorter flights).
In addition, the article reveals that the company also hopes to do two spin tests of Haven-1, testing its ability to rotate and create an artificial gravity. That aligns with the goal of Vast’s full scale Haven-2 station, which it wants to rotate as well. Since the plan is to assembly Haven-2 from upgraded Haven-1 modules, these spin tests are essential for proving the larger station’s design.
Based on this new information, I think we can now map out the evolving but still subject-to-change manned operations at Haven-1, comprising several short 3-5 day manned missions. The first will the crew test the module’s operation. The next two will be to do these spin tests, with people on board.
Vast’s strategy is fundamentally different than the other proposed stations (all listed below). Instead of taking a small NASA development grant to create designs on paper, it is spending its own money to actually launch a demonstration station. If successful, this strategy will make it very easy for NASA to pick it when the time comes to award the larger station construction contracts.
My present rankings for the four proposed commercial stations:
- Haven-1, being built by Vast, with no NASA funds. The company is moving fast, with Haven-1 to launch and be occupied in 2026 for an estimated 30 days total. It hopes this actual hardware and manned mission will put it in the lead to win NASA’s phase 2 contract, from which it will build its much larger mult-module Haven-2 station..
- Axiom, being built by Axiom, has launched three tourist flights to ISS, with a fourth scheduled for early June, carrying passengers from India, Hungary, and Poland. Though there have been rumors it has cash flow issues, development of its first module has been proceeding more or less as planned.
- Starlab, being built by a consortium led by Voyager Space, Airbus, and Northrop Grumman, with an extensive partnership agreement with the European Space Agency. It recently had its station design approved by NASA.
- Orbital Reef, being built by a consortium led by Blue Origin and Sierra Space. Overall, Blue Origin has built almost nothing, while Sierra Space has successfully tested its inflatable modules, including a full scale version, and appears ready to start building its module for launch.
The French startup, The Exploration Company, ships its next cargo capsule prototype for launch
The Exploration Company, a French startup aiming to provide cargo services to both ISS and the future space stations that will replace it, has completed construction and testing of its next cargo capsule prototype, dubbed “Mission Possible,” and has shipped it to Vandenberg in California for launch on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket in June 2025.
In a 6 May update, The Exploration Company announced that it had completed Mission Possible’s pre-shipment review on 2 May and subsequently shipped the capsule to its launch site in the United States. The spacecraft will launch aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 as part of the Transporter-14 rideshare mission, which is expected to lift off no earlier than June 2025.
Once launched, the Mission Possible capsule will remain attached to the Falcon 9 upper stage until after the stage completes its deorbit burn. This approach is necessary because the capsule lacks sufficient propulsion to independently deorbit itself. After separation, it will carry out a series of reorientation manoeuvres as it begins atmospheric reentry.
This capsule is 2.5 meters in diameter, smaller that its proposed commercial Nyx capsule that is the company’s eventual commercial freighter. It is also larger than the company’s first prototype, which flew on the first launch of Ariane-6 in 2024 but was unable to test its re-entry designs because of a failure in that rocket’s upper stage engine that prevented its planned controlled de-orbit.
The Exploration Company, a French startup aiming to provide cargo services to both ISS and the future space stations that will replace it, has completed construction and testing of its next cargo capsule prototype, dubbed “Mission Possible,” and has shipped it to Vandenberg in California for launch on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket in June 2025.
In a 6 May update, The Exploration Company announced that it had completed Mission Possible’s pre-shipment review on 2 May and subsequently shipped the capsule to its launch site in the United States. The spacecraft will launch aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 as part of the Transporter-14 rideshare mission, which is expected to lift off no earlier than June 2025.
Once launched, the Mission Possible capsule will remain attached to the Falcon 9 upper stage until after the stage completes its deorbit burn. This approach is necessary because the capsule lacks sufficient propulsion to independently deorbit itself. After separation, it will carry out a series of reorientation manoeuvres as it begins atmospheric reentry.
This capsule is 2.5 meters in diameter, smaller that its proposed commercial Nyx capsule that is the company’s eventual commercial freighter. It is also larger than the company’s first prototype, which flew on the first launch of Ariane-6 in 2024 but was unable to test its re-entry designs because of a failure in that rocket’s upper stage engine that prevented its planned controlled de-orbit.