Category: Behind The Black

Sunspot update: Are we now in the next solar maximum?

9:57 am

Time for my monthly update on the Sun’s sunspot activity has it proceeds through its eleven-year sunspot cycle. NOAA has released its update of its monthly graph showing the number of sunspots on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere, and I have posted it below, annotated with further details to provide a larger context.

In December sunspot activity increased slightly for the second month in a row, but only by a little bit. The number of sunspots for the month was still significantly below the highs seen in the summer, and continue to suggest that the Sun has already entered solar maximum (two years early), and like the previous two solar maximums in 2001 and 2013, will be double peaked.
» Read more

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SpaceX launches six next generation Starlink satellites

9:09 pm

SpaceX tonight completed its first launch in 2024, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California and putting six next generation Starlink satellites into orbit.

The first stage completed its first flight, successfully landing on the drone ship in the Pacific. The fairings successfully completed their eleventh and ninth flights, respectively. This was the first new stage introduced since August 2023, and continues SpaceX’s pattern of adding about two new first stage boosters per year.

The six Starlink satellites are designed to work directly with the cell phones that people already use, thus increasing the customer base available for the product. As the first generation of this design, it is expected that there will be upgrades with later launches.

At this moment India and SpaceX are the only two entities to launch in 2024, each once.

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January 2, 2023 Quick space links

3:05 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay.

 

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Dunes on the floor of Valles Marineris

2:17 pm

Overview map

Dunes on the floor of Valles Marineris
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on September 26, 2023 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). It shows a field of scattered elongated dunes on a flat older surface with craters and what appear to be smaller ripple dunes (in the lower left). The large elongated dunes tend to be oriented in an east-west manner, while the older tiny ripple dunes appear to have a north-south orientation.

Very clearly the larger dunes appear to be traveling across that flat older surface, though whether there is any documented movement is unknown. Generally (though there are exceptions) scientists have found most of the dunes on Mars to be either inactive, or if they are moving because of the wind that movement is very tiny per year. In this case there is one dark spot on the dunes, near the center of the picture, where it appears a collapse might have occurred, suggesting recent change.

On the center right of the picture is the end point of a long ridgeline extending 10 to 12 miles to the east and rising about 7,300 feet, as shown in the overview map above. The small rectangle in the inset shows the area covered by the photograph.

At the base of that ridgeline can be seen a series of terraces descending to the west, suggesting that this hill might be volcanic in nature, with each terrace indicating a separate lava flow. The location is in the dry equatorial regions, so near-surface ice is likely not an explanation.

In the inset the mountain wall to the north is the large mountain chain that bisects this part of Valles Marineris. It overwhelms this small 7,300-foot-high ridge, rising more than 22,000 feet from these dunes with its high point still one or two thousand feet below the rim of Valles Marineris itself.

Once again, the grand scenery of Mars amazes. Imaging hiking a trail along that ridgeline, with the mountains rising far above you to the north and south.

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The global launch industry in 2023: A record third year in a row of growth, with dark clouds lurking

10:37 am

In 2023 the world saw a continuing rise in the global launch industry. As happened in 2021 and 2022, the record for the most launches in a single year was smashed. In 2023 nations and companies managed to complete more than 200 launches for the first time ever, with the number of launch failures so small you could count them on one hand.

Furthermore, if the predictions by several companies and nations come true, 2024 will be an even greater success. These predictions however all depend on everything continuing as it has, and there are many signs this is not going to be the case. More and more it appears the political world will act to interfere with free world of private enterprise, in some cases intentionally, in others indirectly.

Let us begin by taking a look at 2023.
» Read more

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Don McLean – Vincent

6:01 pm

An evening pause: I’ve posted McLean singing this song previously, but it is worth watching again. A beautiful song to begin the year. The words that matter:

Now I think I know
What you tried to say to me
And how you suffered for your sanity
And how you tried to set them free

They would not listen, they’re not listening still
Perhaps they never will

Hat tip Judd Clark.

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First Juno images of Io from December 30th fly-by

9:51 am

Io as seen by Juno on December 30, 2023
For original global image go here. For original of inset go here.

The first raw Juno images taken of the Jupiter moon Io during its close fly-by on December 30, 2023, the closest in more than twenty years, have been released by the science team and citizen scientists have begun processing them.

The global picture to the right, rotated and reduced to post here, was processed by Kevin Gill. The inset of the volcanic mountains near the terminator was processed by Thomas Thomopoulos. As he notes, to obtain better detail he enhanced the colors and image and then zoomed in.

In the inset, note the northeast flows coming off the two mountains near the center. With the lower mountain, this flow appears to lie on top of a larger flow that extended out almost to the mountain to the right.

Io is a planet of continuous volcanic activity. For example, when the global image above was taken, the plume of a volcano eruption was visible on the right horizon, as shown in this version, its exposure adjusted by Ted Stryk. Catching such eruptions on Io is not unusual, considering its continuous volcanic activity generated by the tidal forces the planet undergoes from its orbit around Jupiter. In fact, the very first plume was imaged in 1979 by Voyager 1 during its short fly-by, and proved a hypothesis of such activity that scientists had only published one week earlier.

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India completes first launch of 2024

8:50 am

India’s space agency ISRO early today completed the first launch of 2024, its PSLV rocket placing an X-ray telescope into orbit along with ten payloads on its fourth stage, which is functioning as an orbital tug. Most appear [pdf] to be experiments that will remain on board, but one is an amateur radio smallsat that might be released.

As this is the only launch so far in 2024, India leads the race. It will certainly not remain the leader.

My annual global launch report for 2023 will be published tomorrow, after the holiday.

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China launches “test satellite for satellite internet technologies”

8:34 pm

China today launched what it described as “a test satellite for satellite internet technologies,” its Long March 2C rocket lifting off from its Jiuquan spaceport in the northwest of China.

No word on where the lower stages crashed, both of which use very toxic hypergolic fuels. Nor was there any additional information about the satellite, though the description suggests this is a prototype satellite for a Starlink-type constellation, several of which China’s government has proposed building.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

96 SpaceX
66 China
19 Russia
8 Rocket Lab
7 India

American private enterprise still leads China in successful launches 110 to 66, and the entire world combined 110 to 103. SpaceX in turn trails the rest of the world (excluding other American companies) 96 to 103.

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December 29, 2023 Quick space links

3:01 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay.

 

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SpaceX successfully completes static fire tests of both Superheavy and Starship

12:37 pm

SpaceX today successfully completed static fire tests on both Superheavy and Starship prototypes intended to fly on its next orbital test flight.

The video at the link is four hours long. The Starship engine burn occurs at 1 hour 15 minutes and lasts about five seconds. The Superheavy burn takes place at 2 hours 42 minutes, and lasts about ten seconds. Both burns appeared to operate exactly as planned, though obviously an inspection of the launchpad under Superheavy will have to take place to see if its deluge system operated as intended.

Once again, SpaceX is demonstrating that it will be ready to go for the third orbital test launch of this rocket in mere weeks. Based on these tests today as well as past operations, it seems that all the company needs to do now is stack Starship on top of Superheavy, do another dress rehearsal countdown, and then go.

It won’t however. There is no word from the FAA on when it will issue a launch permit. Based on the previous launch, it will likely not issue the permit when SpaceX says it has completed its investigation of the last launch and is ready to fly again. Instead it will take another month or two writing up its own report (which will essentially reword what SpaceX has told it). Then, once the FAA is finished only then will the Fish and Wildlife Service begin to write up its report (as happened in the fall), causing further delays.

I repeat my prediction from November: No launch until March, at the earliest. The federal government continues to stand in the way of progress, and freedom.

Hat tip to BtB’s stringer Jay.

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Republicans propose another deep state bureaucracy to enforce civil rights laws

12:10 pm

Failure Theater!

Failure theater: In their typically impotent attempt to fight the leftist movement that is imposing a new racial bigotry across America, several Republicans in Congress have proposed a new special government office in Washington that will be specifically assigned the job of preventing racial discrimination at universities.

The College Admissions Accountability Act, introduced by Sen. J.D. Vance (R., Ohio) and Rep. Jim Banks (R., Ind.), would establish a special inspector general within the Education Department—separate from the Office of Civil Rights—to probe potential violations of the colorblind standard set forth in Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard, which ruled that race-conscious admissions programs violate the 14th Amendment. The bill would also bar schools that flout the decision from receiving any form of federal aid.

…The bill, which appropriates $25 million for the new role and is cosponsored by Sens. Ted Budd (R., N.C.), Mike Braun (R, Ind.), Josh Hawley (R., Mo.), Eric Schmitt (R., Mo.), and Marco Rubio (R., Fla.), does include a sunset clause that would terminate the office after 12 years. Republicans seem to be betting that recalcitrant universities will, after a decade of robust enforcement, throw in the towel and evolve colorblind norms.

These senators and congressmen, along with several conservative think tanks, think naively that this office will the place for anyone of any race to go to get justice should a university receiving federal funds create a program that specifically excludes them solely because of their race. The aim will supposedly be to target specifically the new Diversity-Inclusion-Equity programs at universities and in governments that are imposing this new discrimination against whites, Asians, and Jews.

The foolishness of this plan is hard to measure. » Read more

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The ancientness of rocks on Mars

10:31 am

Ancient rocks on Mars
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and enhanced to post here, was taken on December 27, 2023 by the high resolution camera on the Mars rover Curiosity. It shows what is a somewhat typical rock found on the ground as Curiosity climbs Mount Sharp in Gale Crater.

Two features stand out. First, the many layers illustrate again the cyclical nature of Martian geology. Many sedimentary events occurred over a long time to create this rock, each cycle putting down a new layer, with some intervening time periods possibly removing layers as well. Such layering has now become evident in both ground photos taken by rovers as well as orbital images.

Second, the delicate nature of some layers indicates the incredibly slow erosion process on Mars, enhanced by the red planet’s one-third gravity. The atmosphere is incredibly thin, less than 0.1% of Earth’s. Yet given time the wind had been able to wear away the edges of this rock. The thin atmosphere and light gravity has also allowed some material to remain in a delicate manner that would be impossible on Earth.

Thus, for these thin flakes to have formed has required a great deal of time. The very nature of this rock speaks of an ancient terrain, shaped slowly by inanimate processes with no active life around to disturb things.

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Curiosity science team releases movies of Mars from dawn to dusk

9:32 am

Using its front and rear hazard avoidence cameras, the Curiosity science team had the rover take two full sets of images looking in one direction for twelve hours straight in order to create two movies of Mars that show an entire day, from dawn to dusk.

I have embedded both movies below. From the press release:

When NASA’s Curiosity Mars rover isn’t on the move, it works pretty well as a sundial, as seen in two black-and-white videos recorded on Nov. 8, the 4,002nd Martian day, or sol, of the mission. The rover captured its own shadow shifting across the surface of Mars using its black-and-white Hazard-Avoidance Cameras, or Hazcams.

Instructions to record the videos were part of the last set of commands beamed up to Curiosity just before the start of Mars solar conjunction, a period when the Sun is between Earth and Mars. Because plasma from the Sun can interfere with radio communications, missions hold off on sending commands to Mars spacecraft for several weeks during this time.

The first looks forward, into Gediz Vallis, where Curiosity will eventually travel. The second looks back down Mt Sharp and out across the rim of Gale Crater.
» Read more

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Kazakhstan approves Russia use of Baikonur through 2024

9:22 am

Though Russia supposedly has a long term lease for launching rockets from its Baikonur spaceport in Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan this week revealed that it has just now approved the Russian plan of launches there for 2024.

The Government of Kazakhstan approves the plan of spacecraft launches for 2024 presented by the Russian side within the framework of the state program of the Russian Federation “Space Activities of Russia”, programs of international cooperation and commercial projects from Baikonur Cosmodrome.

Kazakhstan has increasingly become a bit hard-nosed about Russia’s long term lease. For example, in March seized control of the launchpad Russia hoped to use on its new Soyuz-5 rocket, leaving that rocket with no place to launch. And for the last decade there have been hints from both countries that the deal is souring, with Russia suggesting it will shift launch operations entirely to its new spaceport in Vostochny and Kazakhstan politicians eager to see Russia go.

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China completes work on first dedicated “commercial” launchpad

9:08 am

China announced today that it has completed work on first launchpad at its Wenchang spaceport on the island of Hainan off the southern coast of China that it intends to dedicate to launches by its many pseudo-private companies.

Construction of the No. 1 launch pad started in July 2022, and the equipment-installation phase is almost complete. The No. 2 launch pad is still at the construction phase, with the capping of the diversion trough’s main body now finished. On-site equipment installation is due to be completed by the end of May 2024.

The article also notes that this pad is a dedicated site for launching China’s new Long March 8 rocket, which means it isn’t really dedicated to commercial launches at all. These pseudo-companies might use it, but they will do so under orders from the communist Chinese government, which supervises everything they do.

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Russia and NASA agree to extend ISS astronaut exchanges on each other’s spacecraft through 2025

9:01 am

Russia and NASA have agreed to extend their barter deal through 2025, whereby each nation sends astronauts to ISS periodically on the other nation’s rockets and capsules.

This is a barter deal, with no exchange of money. The fundamental idea is to make sure astronauts on board ISS understand how the capsules from each nation operate in case of emergency. Russia had initially resisted signing such a deal after SpaceX began providing NASA its Dragon capsules and Falcon 9 rocket to get astronauts to ISS. It said this was because it did not trust SpaceX’s technology, but I suspect Roscosmos was also hoping to squeeze some cash from NASA as it was no longer being paid to fly U.S. astronauts on its Soyuz rocket and capsule. That attempt was futile. For numerous political reasons there was no way NASA was going to pay Russia anything in this barter deal.

Russia then signed on, and will keep extending this agreement until the day ISS is retired, or it finally launches its own station (something that is becoming increasingly unlikely).

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Navaho Indians attempt to claim ownership of the Moon, delay Vulcan launch

8:47 am

The president of the Navaho Nation has asked NASA to delay the first launch of ULA’s Vulcan rocket because it carries ashes from a number of people (none who were members of its tribe) that Astrobotic’s Peregrine lander will place on the Moon.

The remains are a payload purchased by the company Celestis, which offers this burial option to anyone who wishes it. On this flight that payload includes a wide range of ashes, including many actors and creators from the original Star Trek series.

Navaho President Buu Nygren claims that the “Moon is sacred to numerous Indigenous cultures and that depositing human remains on it is ‘tantamount to desecration.'”

Nygren highlighted this commitment in his letter, as well as a 2021 memo signed by the Biden administration that pledged to consult the tribe on matters that impact them. “This memorandum reinforced the commitment to Executive Order 13175 of November 6, 2000,” President Nygren wrote. “Additionally, the Memorandum of Understanding Regarding Interagency Coordination and Collaboration for the Protection of Indigenous Sacred Sites, which you and several other members of the Administration signed in November 2021, further underscores the requirement for such consultation.”

In other words, though the Navaho have no plans to ever go there, have done nothing to try to explore it, and have no remains of any tribal members on the flight, he wants to claim the Moon as controlled entirely and forever by the Indian tribes of North America because of a law designed solely to protect specific archeological sites on Earth, where Indian remains are discovered.
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SpaceX completes its second launch in less than 3 hours at Cape Canaveral

9:11 pm

SpaceX tonight launched another 23 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral less than three hours after a Falcon Heavy lifted off from its second launchpad at Cape Canaveral, carrying an X-37B mini-shuttle.

The first stage successfully completed its twelfth flight, landing safely on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

96 SpaceX
65 China
19 Russia
8 Rocket Lab
7 India

American private enterprise now leads China in successful launches 110 to 65, and the entire world combined 110 to 102. SpaceX in turn trails the rest of the world (excluding other American companies) 96 to 102.

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SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket launches the Space Force’s X-37B

6:15 pm

SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket tonight successfully launched one of the two X-37B reuseable mini-shuttles in the Space Force’s fleet, lifting off from Cape Canaveral.

This was the seventh X-37B flight. It is not clear which of the two vehicles was flying, and how many flights it has completed previously. The previous X-37B flight stayed in orbit for a record 908 days, landing safely in November 2022.

The two side boosters completed their fifth flight, landing safely back at Cape Canaveral. The center core was treated as expendable, and was not recovered.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

95 SpaceX (with another launch scheduled later tonight)
65 China
19 Russia
8 Rocket Lab
7 India

American private enterprise now leads China in successful launches 109 to 65, and the entire world combined 109 to 102. SpaceX in turn trails the rest of the world (excluding other American companies) 95 to 102.

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December 28, 2023 Quick space links

3:02 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay.

 

 

 

 

  • Another storage tank arrives at Boca Chica

    • This is for storing prior to the launch of a Starship/Superheavy, either methane or oxygen, I’m not sure which. Jay wonders “when they will start producing their own fuel.”

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Today’s blacklisted American wins $185K settlement from college that fired him

1:45 pm

St. Philip's College, home to blacklisting and censorship
St. Philip’s College, the poster child of academic
blacklisting and censorship

They’re coming for you next: Today’s blacklist story is a follow-up on a July 2023 essay about the oppressive atmosphere at St. Philip’s College in Texas, where two different professors were fired in 2023 for political reasons.

First, Dr. Johnson Varkey, was fired because in teaching human anatomy he had the audacity to mention that sex is determined by the X and Y chromosomes, a very basic fact of biology that any medical student has to know to become a competent doctor. Four students walked out on him for saying so, and when they complained to the administration it fired him without due process. He is presently suing the college.

Then, college officials fired professor Will Moravits because he insisted on allowing free and open debate in his classroom and one anonymous student complained, and while doing so made false accusations against Moravits. The school felt so threatened by the idea of freedom of speech that it had Moravits escorted off campus by police, never to return.

Moravits has now won a $185K settlement with St. Philip’s College.
» Read more

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Mapping the major lava flood events in Mars’ volcano country

12:10 pm

The volcanic events in Mars' volcano country
Click for original map.

In a paper just released, scientists have used the orbital data from Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) to map on Mars forty different past volcanic eruptions of extensive flood lava covering large regions, all within the region I dub “volcano country” because its entire surface seems mostly shaped by flows of lava.

The map above, figure 1 from the paper, shows the study area (within the white rectangle), with its global context and additional information added by me on the right. Most of the largest earthquakes detected by InSight ran from north-to-south down the center of the white box. The named features are all large flood lava events, with the youngest being Athabasca. Within the Cerburus Plains feature the researchers mapped many smaller events which brought the total up to forty. From the abstract:

An area almost as large as Europe was investigated. The study revealed the products of more than 40 volcanic events, with one of the largest flows infilling Athabasca Valles with a volume of 4,000 km3. The surface appearance and material properties suggest that Elysium Planitia is composed of basalt, the most common type of lava on Earth. The area also experienced several large floods of water, and there is evidence that lava and water interacted in the past. However, while there could be ice in the ground today, it likely occurs in small patches.

None of these flood lava events involved the gigantic volcanoes that surround this region. Instead, the lava erupted from vents within this region, and then flowed downgrade to flood large areas, sometimes covering over parts of earlier lava floods. All also flowed much faster than lava on Earth, flooding vast regions — comparable to entire countries — often in mere weeks.

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Juno’s closest image of Europa suggests recent surface activity

11:18 am

Juno's best image of Europa
Click for original image.

Analysis by scientists of the closest image of Europa taken during Juno’s close-fly on September 29, 2022 suggests that a particular strange feature, dubbed the “platypus” due to its shape, might be very young and indicate recent surface activity that could be related to underground liquid water.

That picture, reduced and sharpened to post here, is to the right. It is figure 2 of the paper. The description of this photo from the abstract:

Intricate networks of cross-cutting ridges and lineated bands surround an intriguing 37 km (east-west) by 67 km (north-south) chaos feature with a concentric fracture system, depressed matrix margins, and low-albedo materials potentially associated with brine infiltration. The morphology and local relief of the chaos feature are consistent with formation in the collapse of ice overlying a salt-rich lens of subsurface water. Low-albedo deposits, similar to features previously associated with hypothesized cryovolcanic plume activity, flank nearby ridges. The SRU’s high-resolution view of many types of features in a single image allows us to explore their regional context and greatly improve the geologic mapping of this part of Europa’s surface. The image reveals several relatively youthful features in a potentially dynamic region, providing baselines for candidate locations that future missions can investigate for present day surface activity.

SRU is Juno’s Stellar Reference Unit camera, designed to take pictures using only the low light of Jupiter reflected onto nighttime surfaces of Jupiter’s moons. It took this photo when Juno was only 256 miles above the surface.

This feature will obviously become a prime target for Europa Clipper when it arrives into orbit around Jupiter in April 2030. From this vantage point — safer than continuous exposure to Jupiter’s magnetosphere while in orbit around Europa — the spacecraft will do 44 close-flys of the moon.

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Japan’s SLIM lunar lander releases its first pictures of Moon

9:50 am

Oblique view of Moon by SLIM
Oblique view of the Moon, as seen by SLIM.
Click for original image.

Japan’s space agency JAXA today released the first pictures taken of the Moon by its SLIM lunar lander after entering lunar orbit on December 25, 2023.

Three images were included in the tweet. The one to the right, reduced to post here, gives an oblique view of the Moon, including its horizon. None of the images are of great scientific value, but all are very significant in terms of SLIM’s engineering. They prove the spacecraft is operating as designed, able to orient itself precisely as well as point its camera correctly. These facts bode well for the precision landing attempt, which is SLIM’s main purpose, now targeting January 24, 2024. The primary goal is to demonstrate the ability for an unmanned spacecraft to land autonomously within a tiny landing zone only 300 feet across.

If SLIM succeeds, it will then hopefully operate for one lunar day, about two weeks. It is not expected to survive the lunar night that follows.

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The uncertainty of science as proven by the Webb Space Telescope

9:38 am

A long detailed article was released today at Space.com, describing the many contradictions in the data coming back from the Webb Space Telescope that seriously challenge all the theories of cosmologists about the nature of the universe as well as its beginning in a single Big Bang.

The article is definitely worth reading, but be warned that it treats science as a certainty that should never have such contradictions, as illustrated first by its very headline: “After 2 years in space, the James Webb Space Telescope has broken cosmology. Can it be fixed?”

“Science” isn’t broken in the slightest. All Webb has done is provide new data that does not fit the theories. As physicist Richard Feynman once stated bluntly in teaching students the scientific method,

“It doesn’t make a difference how beautiful your guess is, it doesn’t make a difference how smart you are, who made the guess, or what his name is. If it disagrees with experiment, it’s wrong.”

Cosmologists for decades have been guessing in proposing their theories about the Big Bang, the expansion of the universe, and dark matter, based on only a tiny amount of data that had been obtained with enormous assumptions and uncertainties. It is therefore not surprising (nor was it ever surprising) that Webb has blown holes in their theories.

For example, the article spends a lot of time discussing the Hubble constant, describing how observations using different instruments (including Webb) have come up with two conflicting numbers for it — either 67 or 74 kilometers per second per megaparsec. No one can resolve this contradiction. No theory explains it.

To me the irony is that back in the 1990s, when Hubble made its first good measurements of the Hubble constant, these same scientists were certain then that the number Hubble came up with, around 90 kilometers per second per megaparsec, was now correct.

They didn’t really understand reality then, and they don’t yet understand it now.

What cosmologists must do is back away from their theories and recognize the vast areas of ignorance that exist. Once that is done, they might have a chance to resolve the conflict between the data obtained and the theories proposed, and come up with new theories that might work (with great emphasis on the word “might”). Complaining about the paradoxes will accomplish nothing.

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Japan’s space agency JAXA schedules next H3 rocket launch

9:11 am

JAXA, Japan’s space agency, announced today that it has now scheduled the next test launch of its new H3 rocket for February 15, 2024.

This rocket, built by Mitsubishi for JAXA, is supposed to replace the H2A rocket, which completed its last launch in September 2023. The H3 was supposed to be flying years ago, but has experienced numerous engineering problems throughout its development. It was initially supposed to launch in 2020, but was first delayed to 2021 because of “engine issues,” which were later described as cracks and holes in the engine’s combustion chamber.

That launch date was never met. When JAXA was gearing up to launch in 2022 news sources revealed another yearlong delay until 2023 because of new engine problems, which appeared to require a complete engine redesign.

Then in February 2023 the rocket’s first launch attempt was aborted at T-0 when the two strap-on solid rocket boosters failed to ignite. A second launch attempt a month later failed when the second stage failed during launch.

Even if the rocket successfully launches in February, it still leaves Japan far behind the rest of the space-faring industry. The H3 is entirely expendable, and is far more expensive to launch than the new reuseable rockets in use or being developed by numerous private American companies or other nations. JAXA says it hopes to launch it six times a year, but I can’t imagine it getting even a third that number of customers.

What Japan’s government really needs to do is to get the launch business away from JAXA completely. Let other companies besides Mitsubishi build their own rockets and have JAXA buy their services, rather than try to design its own rockets. This system is working marvelously in the U.S., so much so that India is now aggressively trying to copy it, while communist China has made its own pseudo attempt, somewhat successfully, to do the same for the past five years.

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