Category: Behind The Black

China and Russia outline long term plans for building joint lunar base

11:08 am

China/Russian Lunar base roadmap

The governments of China and Russia yesterday announced their long term roadmap for building a joint manned lunar base on the Moon, what they have labeled the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS).

The graphic to the right, rearranged by me from the PowerPoint slides released by the two governments, shows the overall plan.

The first phase, starting now and running through ’25, will involve six already planned unmanned missions by both countries, three each. Of the three Chinese unmanned missions, Chang’e-4, Chang’e-6, and Chang’e-7, the first is already operating on the Moon, as it includes the Yutu-2 rover. Based on China’s recent track record, it would be reasonable to expect the other two Chang’e missions to fly as planned.

Of the three Russian missions, Luna 25 is scheduled to launch later this year, making it the first all-Russian-built planetary mission in years and the first back to the Moon since the 1970s. The other two Russian probes are supposedly under development, but based on Russia’s recent track record in the past two decades for promised space projects, we have no guarantee they will fly as scheduled, or even fly at all.

The second phase, running from ’26 to ’35, will begin construction, though the details are vague.

The third phase, when China & Russia say they will begin full operations in ’36, is even more vague, merely stating the objective of human “lunar research and exploration”.

The pace matches well with the typically slow pace of these kind of government programs. It not only matches with the pace that China has shown in its entire manned program, with manned missions sometimes separated by years, it also matches the sluggish long term roadmap that NASA has put forth for its own Artemis program on the Moon. It also fits with Russia’s recent pattern, which is to repeatedly announce big projects and goals, with little actual execution to follow.

At first glance the plan suggests that we are in a new space race between the United States and its national partners in the capitalist west and the authoritarian governments of China and Russia. That may be so, but I think the real race will be between the government programs in China, Russia, and the U.S. and the efforts by private commercial companies aiming to make profits in space. And if you ask me to bet on who will get more accomplished faster for less money, I will hands down put my money on those private companies. The more profit they make, the faster they will push to move forward, and will quickly leave these sedate government programs in the dust.

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Russia announces it is shifting its manned operations on ISS to yearlong missions

10:35 am

According to Dmitry Rogozin, head of Roscosmos, Russia is changing the standard length of a crew stay at ISS from six months to a full year, beginning with the flight in which the crew will help film a commercial movie on ISS in October.

Then-Head of the Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Center Pavel Vlasov earlier said that two members of the Soyuz MS-18 spacecraft, Pyotr Dubrov and Mark Vande Hei, would stay in orbit longer than six months to help shoot a film Vyzov (Challenge). He also said that crew commander Oleg Novitsky would return to Earth in October aboard the Soyuz MS-18’s descend capsule together with the participants of the Soyuz MS-19 spacecraft’s flight (actress Yulia Peresild and film director Klim Shipenko who would be engaged in the film). Two crewmembers, cosmonaut Dubrov and NASA astronaut Vande Hei, would remain in orbit and return to Earth aboard the Soyuz MS-19 spaceship, he said.

Gaining experience at missions a year or longer, something only the Russians have accomplished, makes sense if one plans to send astronauts to Mars. I suspect however there is a second more practical reason for this change: It will free up seats on Soyuz to sell for commercial tourist flights. Russia clearly wants to compete successfully with the new American commercial manned flights that SpaceX and Axiom will be flying. This change gives them that opportunity.

Rogozin himself likely has personal financial motives. He is a co-producer on that movie, and likely will also pocket personally some of the profits from future tourist flights.

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SpaceX confirms it is shifting to Starship orbital test flights

10:24 am

Capitalism in space: By shifting both the 15th and 16th Starship prototypes to its garden at Boca Chica of retired spacecraft, SpaceX has essentially confirmed that it has shifted operations there from short test hops to Starship orbital test flights.

Built as the first of several planned backups to Starship SN15, which debuted a number of significant upgrades in April and May, it appears that Starship serial number 16 (SN16) has been retired to a display stand after its only sibling became the first full-size prototype to successfully survive a launch and landing on May 5th. SN16 actually reached its full height before SN15 lifted off and was more or less complete by May 10th. Since then, the prototype has remaining more or less untouched, seemingly waiting for SpaceX to decide its fate in lieu of Starship SN15’s major success.

Ultimately, with SN16 now sitting side by side with SN15 at what will likely become a sort of open-air SpaceX museum, it appears that the company has made up its mind.

In other words, prototype #16, though built and ready to fly, will likely never do so. Instead, the company is focusing its operations on preparing for the first orbital test flights using Starship prototype #20 stacked on top of a Superheavy, with the first flight planned to circle three-quarters of the globe to land in the Pacific northeast of Hawaii.

Since neither #20 nor its Superheavy are fully assembled, that flight will likely not occur in July, as SpaceX had initially suggested as its targeted launch date. However, with all work now focused on that orbital test flight, it is almost certain they will attempt it before the year is out.

The big question is whether Starship’s first orbital flight will beat out SLS’s first orbital flight, presently scheduled for November but expected to be delayed.

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Spacesuit issues prevent spacewalk from completing new ISS solar panels installation

10:12 am

Astronauts on ISS yesterday were unable to complete the installation of a new solar panel on ISS because the suit of one astronaut began experiencing technical problems.

First, a sensor in the suit’s sublimator — which provides pressure — registered a spike. Shortly thereafter, the Display and Control Module (DCM) in his suit malfunctioned, necessitating an immediate return to the Quest Airlock to connect back to Station umbilicals to attempt a restart of the unit.

The “warm restart” of the DCM meant that Shane [Kimbrough]’s suit momentarily lost its cooling and CO2 scrubbing capabilities; however, this is an acceptable condition, per EVA procedures, when attempting to “warm restart” a DCM. A failure to restart the unit would have meant a premature end to the EVA.

The restart was successful, and ground teams sent Shane back out to Thomas while managers and engineers continued to discuss the sublimator issue — which itself could have also stop the EVA early. Fortunately, through a series of suit configuration tests, ground teams were able to determine that the sublimator was functioning properly and that a faulty sensor likely triggered an erroneous pressure increase reading.

The time lost in fixing these issues however prevented the astronauts from finishing their work. The new solar panel was attached, but not unrolled into its full deployed configuration. The astronauts also were unable to plug the new panel into the station’s electrical system.

Engineers are now assessing the situation in order to plan a follow-up spacewalk.

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Astronomers propose explanation the dimming of Betelgeuse in 2020

10:01 am

The uncertainty of science: New data has allowed astronomers to propose a more detailed explanation for the dimming of Betelgeuse in 2020 by almost two-thirds.

[T]he dimming was likely to be caused by [one of two] mechanisms, such as a blob of unusually cold matter appearing on the surface of the star in what’s known as a convective cell, or a cloud of dust crossing the line of sight to it.

Now, astrophysicist Miguel Montargès at the Paris Observatory and his collaborators have found that the reason for the ‘great dimming’ was probably a combination of both of those factors

The data suggest that the star spewed out material from a convection cell, which then quickly condensed into dust which acted to block the star’s light. The growing cell itself also was darker, which also contributed to the dimming.

The results, while robust, are still uncertain. While a number of mainstream news sources are claiming the mystery of Betelgeuse’s dimming has been “solved”, that is not how it works. The data now points to an answer, but the data is far from complete, and future observations could very easily change that answer.

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Manned Shenzhou capsule docks with Tianhe

9:53 am

China’s manned Shenzhou capsule early this morning successfully docked with the Tianhe module of that nation’s new space station.

The three astronauts on board will spend the next three months doing work in connection with the assembly of that station. Though this was the first Chinese manned mission in five years, the pace is expected to pick up in the next year.

Eight more launches will be required to finish construction of the space station, Chinese officials have said. Two will loft “lab modules” that will attach to Tianhe, forming the final T-shaped station. The assembly phase, which is expected to wrap up by the end of 2022, will also include three more cargo launches and three additional crewed missions.

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SpaceX successfully launches GPS satellite for Space Force

9:40 am

Capitalism in space: SpaceX today successfully launched a new GPS satellite for the Space Force.

As I post this the second stage has not yet deployed the satellite, though it is in orbit. UPDATE: As expected the satellite has been successfully deployed into its proper orbit.

This was the first Space Force launch using a reused Falcon 9 first stage. The stage, making its second flight, successfully landed on the drone ship, broadcasting the absolutely best video ever of such a landing, with the cameras on both the stage and the drone ship working without distortion throughout the landing to touchdown. The live stream is embedded below the fold, with that landing at 8:34 minutes after launch.

The two fairing halves are new but their pick up method for reuse has been streamlined:

For this mission, a new vessel has joined SpaceX’s oceangoing recovery fleet. HOS Briarwood will attempt to recover Falcon 9’s payload fairing halves after they splash down in the Atlantic Ocean. Similar in size to Shelia Bordelon, the previous temporary fairing recovery vessel, HOS Briarwood can be booked as a “flotel” and features an enormous crane, along with seemingly just enough deck space to support two recovered fairing halves.

Apparently, allowing the halves to land directly on the ocean surface and act as floating boat hulls until the ship can pick them up on a single ship, using a crane, is now the recovery method. There is also the hint that SpaceX might also be planning to sell tickets on this ship for people who wish a vacation watching that fairing recovery operation.

The leaders in the 2021 launch race:

19 SpaceX
17 China
8 Russia
3 Northrop Grumman

The U.S. now leads China 27 to 17 in the national rankings. Note: The average number of American launches per year during the 21st century (from 2000 to 2020) was 22. The U.S. has now topped that average by five launches, and the year is not even half over.
» Read more

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Chinese astronauts successfully launched into space

6:55 pm

The new colonial movement: Using its Long March 2F rocket China tonight (June 17th in China) successfully launched three astronauts into orbit on their Shenzhou manned capsule for a planned three month mission to the first module of their new space station.

The most recent update as I post this:

Chinese mission control has confirmed today’s launch was a success, placing the Shenzhou 12 capsule into an orbit ranging in altitude between 120 miles (220 kilometers) and 208 miles (335 kilometers). Docking with the Tianhe core module is expected in approximately six hours. The rendezvous will be fully automated.

No word on where the four strap-on boosters and core stage landed within interior China.

The leaders in the 2021 launch race:

18 SpaceX
17 China
8 Russia
3 Northrop Grumman

The U.S. still leads China 26 to 17 in the national rankings, and will add to that lead if a planned SpaceX launch tomorrow goes as planned.

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New studies: Plexiglass does nothing; masks carry diseases; lockdowns destroyed 40% of all small businesses

5:11 pm

Modern science!
How modern politicians apply science!

Three new studies have once again confirmed what common sense and a hundred-plus years of medical research has consistently shown, that the measures mandated by foolish governments and health officials last year to supposedly “stop” or “slow” the spread of COVID-19 did nothing of the sort, and instead likely accomplished the exact opposite.

The studies specifically looked at three of the most popular and imposing actions mandated by either governments or corporations, the installation of plexiglass everywhere, the mandating of mask use, and the draconian lockdowns that shut down whole states for almost a year. In all three cases, the studies found them worse than useless.

First, the plexiglass barriers: Not only has there never been any research documenting the usefulness of the plexiglass barriers that restaurants, convenience stores, and almost all businesses have installed to isolate their workers and customers from each other and thus supposedly prevent the spread of COVID-19, a new study from Boston found that the plexiglass barriers likely increased the risk of infection, because it hampered the flow of air circulation.
» Read more

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Hubble in safe mode due to computer problem

1:47 pm

A computer failure on June 13th put the Hubble Space Telescope in safe mode, with engineers hoping to have the problem resolved and the telescope back in operation by tomorrow.

NASA is working to resolve an issue with the payload computer on the Hubble Space Telescope. The computer halted on Sunday, June 13, shortly after 4 p.m. EDT. After analyzing the data, the Hubble operations team is investigating whether a degrading memory module led to the computer halt. The team is preparing to switch to one of several backup modules on Wednesday, June 16. The computer will then be allowed to run for approximately one day to verify that the problem has been solved. The team would then restart all science instruments and return the telescope to normal science operations.

The unit itself, while built in the 1980s, was only launched to Hubble in 2009 as part of the last shuttle repair mission.

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