February 7, 2025 Zimmerman/Batchelor podcast
Embedded below the fold in two parts.
To listen to all of John Batchelor’s podcasts, go here.
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Category: Points of Information
Very brief descriptions, with appropriate links, of current or recent news items.
Rocket Lab launches 5 Kinéis satellites for its constellation for the internet of things
Rocket Lab today successfully launched five more internet of things satellites for the French company Kinéis, bringing its planned 25 satellite constellation to 20 satellites.
Rocket Lab has the contract to launch the entire constellation, and this was the fourth of five launches in that deal.
The 2025 launch race:
17 SpaceX
6 China
1 Blue Origin
1 India
1 Japan
1 Russia
1 Rocket Lab
SpaceX launches 21 Starlink satellites
SpaceX today successfully placed 21 more Starlink satellites in orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.
The first stage completed its seventeenth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.
The 2025 launch race:
17 SpaceX
6 China
1 Blue Origin
1 India
1 Japan
1 Russia
New calculations raise odds from 1.2% to 2.3% that asteroid will impact Earth in ’32
New calculations have increased the chances that the recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit the Earth in 2032 from 1.2% to 2.3%.
Ongoing observations from ground-based telescopes involved with the International Asteroid Warning Network will continue while the asteroid is still visible through April, after which it will be too faint to observe until around June 2028.
NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will also observe the asteroid in March 2025 to better assess the asteroid’s size. Currently the asteroid is estimated to be 130-300 feet across.
There remains great uncertainty in these numbers. We will really not know for certain if the asteroid will hit us until its orbit is studied for the next few years. Moreover, its size and make-up is also not known precisely yet. It could be as large as 320 feet, or as small as 130 feet. If the larger size, it poses a much greater risk, though that risk shrinks again if it is a rubble-pile asteroid that will simply break apart upon hitting the atmosphere.
This is not something to take lightly. Though the asteroid is not a world-destroyer, it does have the ability to cause significant damage, depending on where it hits. As its arrival is not for eight years, there is even time to quickly put together an unmanned mission to study it. (In the past I would never said this, but the domination of private enterprise in our present competitive space industry makes many things possible that were impossible when NASA and the government ran everything.)
More indications balloon company Space Perspective is about to go bankrupt
New details reported yesterday strongly suggest that the high altitude balloon company Space Perspective has been unable to find new investors and is on the verge of shutting.
In a February 5 email to stakeholders, Interim CEO Michael Savage provided the latest updates, shedding light on failed funding efforts, the company’s dire financial situation, and attempts to restructure its debt. The email also acknowledged the gravity of the challenges ahead, hinting at the possible closure of operations.
Savage’s email outlined efforts to secure funding, including meetings with investors Fortuna and Broadlight, both of whom ultimately declined to proceed. Savage explained that while there was initial interest, the company’s mounting debt and financial instability deterred further investment. “Both [investors] have expressed interest, but despite the current circumstances and since Nov./Dec. 2024, they feel that their LPs would not stomach the numbers,” Savage wrote.
The company has previously announced it was shifting operations out of the Cape Canaveral area to a location 90 miles north where costs were less as it searched for new investors. This new report suggests this move and the search have not worked and the company will soon go out of business.
ULA swapping Vulcan for Atlas-5 for first 2025 launch
ULA has decided to destack the Vulcan rocket it had planned as its first launch in 2025 (launching a military payload) and is now replacing it with one of its remaining Atlas-5 rockets to put the first batch of satellites for Amazon’s Kuiper internet constellation.
It appears the military is not ready to certify this launch after the second Vulcan launch in October 2024 experienced a problem with one of its strap-on boosters. The payload got to its proper orbit, but the loss of that booster’s nozzle appears to be an issue the military remains concerned about.
Rather than wait, ULA decided to switch to the Kuiper launch. The company wants to complete up to 20 launches in 2025, many of which are for Amazon using its last ten or so Atlas-5 rockets. When it can start commercial launches of Vulcan remains somewhat uncertain. The military has indicated it will make a final decision of certification in the spring, and has also said that first operational flight will follow soon after.
Boeing notifies SLS employees of impending layoffs
The expected real per launch cost of SLS and Orion
Boeing yesterday sent a notice out to its employees working on NASA’s SLS rocket that up 400 could be laid off due to “revisions to the Artemis program and cost expectations.”
Boeing SLS employees were informed Feb. 7 that the company was making preparations to cut up to 400 jobs from the program because of “revisions to the Artemis program and cost expectations.” The specific positions being considered for elimination were not announced but would account for a significant fraction of the overall SLS workforce at the company.
This is probably the most significant update from the entire SLS program since it was first proposed by George Bush Jr in 2004. All other announcements either told us there were going to be more delays, the cost was going up, or there were newly discovered technical problems caused by bad management or sloppy work. This announcement instead actually indicates that NASA management — under pressure from the new Trump administration — is finally addressing these failures after two decades.
In the past few months there have been many indications from the swamp in Washington that it is finally beginning to recognize the absurdity and stupidity of the whole SLS/Orion infrastructure, a realization I outlined in detail fourteen years ago, soon after the project was reshaped from the absurd and stupid Ares project under Bush Jr. to SLS/Orion under Obama.
It took however the arrival of Trump (changed himself from his first administration) to do it. Trump is doing what no president has done in our lifetimes, going through all federal programs and ripping them apart if they are failing to do what they promise. And he is doing it with full and amazingly enthusiastic support of the American people. No one cares that government employees are “crying.” Nor does anyone pay attention any longer to these sob stories, put out by the propaganda press. It have proven itself to be habitual liars whose only interest has been prop up the Washington swamp, and everyone now recognizes it.
Expect a major reshaping of NASA and its entire manned program. We will still be heading to the stars, but finally doing it.
The weird landscape in Mars’ glacial country
Glacier country in the northern mid-latitudes of Mars
Cool image time! The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on November 4, 2024 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).
The science team labels the features in the lowland below the mesas “ribbed terrain.” To me it looks like peeling paint. What it is however is glacial material, a lot of it. The white dot on the overview map above marks the location, in the middle of the 2,000-mile-long mid-latitude strip in the northern hemisphere I label glacier country, because practically every high resolution image of this region shows glacial features like those on the right.
The mesa with the crater on top gives a clue on the geological history. This is chaos terrain, a region of random mesas cross-crossed with canyons and wide low plains, as shown in the inset. The entire surface was probably once at the same height as the top of that mesa with the crater. Over time glacial ice eroded away along fault lines. As that sublimation process continued, the fault lines widened to became canyons, then the flat plains, with the isolated mesas remaining between.
The “peeling paint” terrain is likely a layer of ice that is in the process of sublimating away.
SpaceX to use older Dragon capsule for next manned launch because of issues with new capsule
Ars Technica today reported that because of continuing battery issues with the new Dragon manned capsule, SpaceX now plans to use the older Endurance Dragon capsule for the next manned launch to ISS and prevent further delays in bringing home the two Starliner astronauts.
NASA now believes the vehicle will not be ready for its debut launch until late April. Therefore, according to sources at the agency, NASA has decided to swap vehicles for Crew-10. The space agency has asked SpaceX to bring forward the C210 vehicle, which returned to Earth last March after completing the Crew-7 mission.
Known as Endurance, the spacecraft was next due to fly the private Axiom-4 mission to the space station later this spring. Sources said SpaceX is now working toward a no-earlier-than March 12 launch date for Crew-10 on Endurance. If this flight occurs on time—and the date is not certain, as it depends on other missions on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 manifest—the Crew-9 astronauts, including Wilmore and Williams, could fly home on March 19. They would have spent 286 days in space. Although not a record for a NASA human spaceflight, this would be far longer than their original mission, which was expected to last eight to 30 days.
The new capsule will then be used for Axiom’s fourth commercial flight to ISS, AX-4, presently scheduled for later in the spring.
Vast delays launch of Haven-1 space module to May 2026
Haven-1 with docked Dragon capsule
The space station startup Vast yesterday announced that it had revised its overall schedule, delaying the launch of its Haven-1 space module from August 2025 to May 2026.
Based on their testing program this delay had become increasingly expected. They have only now begu testing of the primary structure qualification article of this module, with it passing its first pressure tests. Vibration testing is still to come. This makes the August 2025 target date impossible.
The plan now is to begin construction of the actual module as soon as this testing is complete in about a month, with the primary structure ready in July. Integration and testing will then follow to be completed by March 2026.
The launch of Haven-1 on a Falcon 9 rocket is now targeting May 2026, with its 30-day four-person crewed mission to launch no earlier than the end of June 2026.
As the company notes,
Vast was founded in 2021. At the time, NASA had already launched the CLD program and awarded funding to [three] other [space station] companies. Recognizing the need for a leapfrog strategy, we developed Haven-1 to set us apart. When NASA selects its partner(s) to carry forward its low-Earth orbit (LEO) legacy, we will be the only company operating a crewed space station—one we designed, built, tested, and verified for safety entirely in-house.
…Every lesson learned from Haven-1 will be applied to our CLD Phase II proposal—Haven-2. No team will have more operational experience than Vast. No design will carry as much flight heritage. No company will be better positioned to deliver for NASA as fast—thanks to our work and over $1 billion investment in Haven-1 ahead of CLD Phase II.
This strategy all depends of course on getting Haven-1 launched as planned. Based on the company’s operations so far, the odds appear high that it will meet this new schedule. There are no guarantees however.
February 6, 2025 Quick space links
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay, who’s real work has made it difficult to send links this week. I thank him for persevering anyway.
This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.
- Sierra Space shares innovation award with Japanese partners for research studying if Dream Chasers can launch and land at Japanese airport
Sounds interesting, but Dream Chaser needs a rocket to launch, and the airport, Oita airport, has no such capability. Nor does the press release mention what rocket company would do the launches.
- Geost sues Sierra Space for breach of contract
The suit claims Sierra used Geost to get a satellite contract from the military, then broke the deal to replace it once the contract was won. It wants more than $17 million to recover its costs, plus punitive damages.
- NASASpaceflight.com releases a video touting what it expects to be a big 2025 at the Kennedy Space Center
Nothing really new.
- On this day in 1971 Alan Shepard of Apollo 14 took his first steps on the Moon
Shepard was the only Mercury astronaut to get to the Moon.
- On this day in 1995 the space shuttle completed the first shuttle docking to the Russian space station Mir
The picture at the link is of Mir with cosmonaut Valery Polyakov watching from a window. At that time Polyakov was more than a year into his 14.5 month stay on Mir, which still stands as the longest continuous mission yet for any human being.
- On this day in 2018 Falcon Heavy successfully completed its first launch, placing a Tesla in solar orbit
The most spectacular part of the launch was the simultaneous landing of both side boosters back at Kennedy.
SpaceX withdraws from process to bring Starlink to South Africa
In what appears to be directly related to the new South African law that will force the redistribution of private land holdings based on race, SpaceX this week withdrew from a meeting to discuss South Africa’s plan to license Starlink operations.
According to an Icasa spokeswoman, SpaceX notified Icasa on Wednesday evening that it would no longer participate in the oral presentations. The company had already made a written submission, which has not been withdrawn. It’s not clear why SpaceX decided to withdraw from the hearings – the company couldn’t immediately be reached for comment.
The withdrawal by SpaceX follows a post by Musk on his social media platform X that asked President Cyril Ramaphosa why the country has what he called “openly racist ownership laws”.
It is not surprising Musk had the company cancel its plans. Musk has more and more been learning about the corrupt and racist policies of the left, and since South Africa has been ruled for several decades by communists who have now decided to impose DEI quotas on land ownership that require a percentage of white-owned land to be confiscated to give to blacks, he has probably decided there are better places than South Africa to provide Starlink services.
Astrobotic’s Griffin lunar lander gets commercial rover to replace NASA’s VIPER rover
Astrobotic’s commercial Griffin lunar lander has signed a deal with the space rover startup Venturi Astrolab to fly its FLEX Lunar Innovation Platform (FLIP) in place of NASA’s cancelled VIPER rover.
Last year NASA announced that it would be cancelling the VIPER lander that was set to travel aboard Astrobotic’s Griffin-1 lander, just months after the company’s first attempt at a moonshot failed. Now, the company has secured a contract to transport a rover developed by California-based aerospace firm Venturi Astrolab. That rover, the FLEX Lunar Innovation Platform, or FLIP for short, will be deployed to the Nobile region of the lunar south pole. The mission is scheduled for the end of the year and NASA’s contract with Astrobotic has been modified for the mission to serve as large lander demonstration flight.
This deal has significant ramifications outside of Astrobotic’s effort to make money hauling payloads to the Moon. Astrolab is one of three companies with NASA design contracts to develop a manned lunar rover for its later Artemis manned missions. By flying this smaller version now and successfully operating it on the Moon Astrolab puts itself in a better position to win the larger final rover contract from NASA, beating out Intuitive Machines and Lunar Outpost.
Astrolab was clearly aiming for the VIPER slot when it unveiled FLIP in October 2024. As I predicted then:
FLIP was clearly designed to match the fit of NASA’s now canceled VIPER rover that was to be launched on Astrobotic’s Griffin lander. Griffin is still being prepped for its lunar mission to be launched in 2025, but no longer has that prime payload. It is very obvious that Astrolab is vying to make FLIP that prime payload.
Note however how private enterprise moves. NASA can’t get it done but the competition to win contracts and make profits has these private companies scrambling to make things happen, quickly and cheaply.
German startup Atmos gets FAA approval to launch its orbital research capsule
The German startup Atmos Space Cargo has now gotten its FAA launch license for testing the re-entry capability of its first orbiting research capsule, dubbed Phoenix.
That payload review was the final regulatory step needed for the mission, Sebastian Klaus, chief executive and co-founder of Atmos, said in an interview. The company doesn’t need a separate FAA reentry license because the spacecraft is planned to reenter over international waters, he said, and there are no licensing requirements by Germany, where the company is based.
Phoenix is fully assembled and has completed environmental testing, although the company is continuing to update software for the vehicle. “Physically and from a testing point of view, the spacecraft is ready for launch,” he said.
The capsule will be deployed immediately after the Falcon 9’s upper stage completes its de-orbit burn, so that it can then test that re-entry capability using an “inflatable decelerator”, likely a larger heat shield that can be used to protect a larger capsule.
This mission will be the first in a series of flights to test that inflatable system. If successful, the capsule will then be made available for orbital manufacturing for return to Earth, similar to the American startup Varda and its capsule.
Putin fires head of Roscosmos
Vladimir Putin today fired Yury Borosov, who has run Russia’s space industry as head of Roscosmos for only two and a half years after he replaced Dmitry Rogozin, whom Putin had fired in 2022.
According to this British news report, Borosov was fired due to a “catastrophic reduction in the number of launches, as well as incidents and accidents with serious consequences”. Since 2022, the number of successful Russian launches has dropped from 21 to 19 to 17 (in 2024), and so far in 2025 it has only launched once, a classified military launch yesterday. Though there is no indication that launch was a failure, the timing of Borosov’s firing today suggests something might have gone askew once the payloads reached orbit.
The new Roscosmos head is 39-year-old Dmitry Bakanov, who was previously deputy minister of transport.
It is not likely Bakanov will have any better luck revitalizing Russia’s space industry than Borosov. First, Putin consolidated that industry in 2015 into this single Roscosmos corporation, so there is no competition allowed. Russia under Putin’s rule has increasingly returned to the top-down communist model, and as a result it is increasingly less capable of accomplishing much.
Second, Putin’s idiotic invasion of the Ukraine has done nothing but harm to the nation. And as that war continues to drag on, the harm has only been metastasizing.
February 5, 2025 Zimmerman/Batchelor podcast
Embedded below the fold in two parts.
To listen to all of John Batchelor’s podcasts, go here.
» Read more
February 5, 2025 Quick space links
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.
These are late because my email server was bouncing Jay’s emails. The issue is being investigated.
- Today in 1974 Mariner 10 flew past Venus and returned the first close-up photo of the planet
The picture at the link was taken using an ultraviolet filter that revealed dark streaks in the atmosphere, which still remain unexplained now more than a half century later. The mission’s main target however was Mercury, and this Venus fly-by proved a slingshot could get it to the innermost planet.
- On this day in 1971 the lunar module of Apollo 14 landed on the Moon
The landing site at the Fra Mauro Highlands had been the planned landing site for Apollo 13.
Martian hardened dunes untouched by dust devils
Click for original image.
Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped to post here, was taken on September 26, 2024 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).
I picked this image out of the MRO archive because of the many dust devil tracts that cut across the entire image, traveling in all directions with no apparent pattern. I also picked it because those tracks also cut across the many parallel small ridges that appear to be ancient ripple dunes that have since hardened into rock. What makes this landscape puzzling is how those dust devil tracks leave no evidence on those ridges. It is as if the ancient ripple dunes were laid down after the very recent dust devil tracks, even though that is chronologically entirely backwards.
Apparently, the dust devil tracks form because the devil only disturbs the dust that coats the flat low ground between the ridges. The ridges themselves are hard, and thus the devils, produced in Mars’ extremely thin atmosphere, can leave no mark.
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Sunspot update: Sunspot activity continued its decline in January
Another month has passed, meaning it is time for another update on the Sun’s sunspot cycle, based on NOAA’s monthly graph tracking that activity but annotated by me with additional information.
In January the decline in sunspot activity on the hemisphere facing Earth since August 2024 continued, with the number of sunspots dropping to a level not seen since May 2023, when the Sun’s was ramping up from solar minimum to solar maximum.
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The uncertainty of science: Scientists now say eating eggs reduces your chances of a heart attack
I wish they’d make up their minds: For decades scientists — and the U.S. government — claimed with absolute certainty that eating eggs increased your risk of a heart attack because of the egg’s cholesterol content.
Now they say “Never mind.”
The researchers analyzed data from 8,756 Australian and American adults aged 70-plus who participated in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study and one of its sub-studies, the ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP) study. As part of the latter study, participants self-reported their total egg intake, which was categorized as never/infrequently (never or one-to-two times a month), weekly (one-to-six times a week), and daily (daily or several times a day). The association between egg intake and all-cause and cause-specific mortality – in this case, cardiovascular disease and cancer – was assessed after adjusting for sociodemographic, health-related and clinical factors, and overall diet quality. The follow-up period was close to six years.
Participants who fell into the weekly category of egg consumption, that is, they consumed one to six eggs per week, had a 29% lower risk of dying from cardiovascular disease and a 17% lower risk of dying from any cause compared to those participants who ate eggs never or infrequently. There was no statistically significant association between egg consumption and deaths due to cancer.
The study found that eating eggs with a high quality diet reduced the risk of heart disease even more. It also found that eating eggs has the same exact benefit even for those who already had high levels of cholesterol.
In other words, our lovely government and the American Heart Association had been handing out guidelines for decades based on nothing more than very uncertain science, and doing it with an air of arrogant certainty that should make everyone want to vomit.
I should note that the results above are uncertain as well. It is based merely on a correlation of eating eggs and lower heart disease, and we must remind ourselves that correlation does not prove causation. The study says nothing about how eating eggs might lower your risk of heart disease, and the correlation might very well be unrelated entirely.