December 18, 2024 Zimmerman/Batchelor podcast
Embedded below the fold in two parts.
To listen to all of John Batchelor’s podcasts, go here.
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Category: Points of Information
Very brief descriptions, with appropriate links, of current or recent news items.
December 17, 2024 Zimmerman/Space Show podcast
The podcast from my appearance on the Space Show is now available here.
It was a interesting show, though I wish more readers and listeners had called in or emailed questions or even their own thoughts. Would have made it even better.
Axiom to speed up assembly of its space station
Axiom’s new module assembly sequence
Capitalism in space: In order to be able to fly its space station independent of ISS more quickly, Axiom has rearranged the order it will launch some modules.
Originally, the plan was to attach Habitat 1 (AxH1) first, before the power and thermal module. Now, the on-orbit assembly sequence will start with the Payload Power Thermal Module (AxPPTM), followed by AxH1, an airlock, Habitat 2 (AxH2), and finally the Research and Manufacturing Facility (AxRMF). “The result – free-flight capability after the launch and berthing of PPTM,” [Mark Greeley, Axiom Space COO and station program manager,] explained, “[will allow] us to add modules while on orbit once we have separated from station. Our goal is to ensure a smooth transition from a government to a commercial platform, maintaining a continuous human presence on orbit to serve a community of global customers and partners, to include NASA.”
The AxPPTM primary structure will be built by Thales Alenia Space in Turin, Italy, and then relocated to Houston no earlier than fall 2025, where the integration of the internal structure and systems will take place at Axiom Space facilities.
The new sequence is shown in the graphic above. This change will allow Axiom to fly free two years sooner than previously planned, in 2028. It appears NASA pushed for this change possibly because it considers remaining attached to ISS until 2030 a risk that should be avoided. NASA apparently is increasingly concerned about the state of Russia’s Zvezda module, and fears it might have a catastrophic failure due to the stress fractures in its hull. The sooner Axiom can get free of ISS the better.
This modification also appears to include some major changes from previous Axiom graphics. It appears the airlock module and its solar panels have undergone a major design change.
Below is my present ranking for the launch of the four space stations being designed and built:
- Haven-1, being built by Vast, with no NASA funds. The company is moving fast, and plans to launch and occupy it in 2025 for a 30 day mission. It will then build its mult-module Haven-2 station.
- Axiom, being built by Axiom, which has also launched three tourist flights to ISS. Though there are rumors it is experiencing cash flow issues, today’s announcement suggests those rumors might be unfounded.
- Orbital Reef, being built by a consortium led by Blue Origin and Sierra Space. Though Blue Origin has apparently done little, Sierra Space has successfully tested its inflatable modules, including a full scale version, and appears ready to start building the station’s modules for launch.
- Starlab, being built by a consortium led by Voyager Space, Airbus, and Northrop Grumman.
December 18, 2024 Quick space links
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.
- Ispace confirms its Resilience lunar lander will launch on the same SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket that will launch Firefly’s Blue Ghost lunar lander
The launch is presently scheduled for a six-day window in mid-January 2025.
- Biden administration releases its final space policy for exploring the Moon
While some proposals have value, it is largely meaningless with a new administration about to arrive.
- On this day in 1965 Frank Borman and Jim Lovell of Gemini 7 splashed down after completing 14 days in orbit
This flight was the longest ever at the time and proved that humans could live in weightlessness long enough to get to and from the Moon. Borman and Lovell followed this up when in 1968 they crewed the Apollo 8 mission, with Bill Anders, the first mission to actually circle the Moon.
SpaceX launches reconnaissance satellite
SpaceX yesterday launched a National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) satellite, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California.
The first stage completed its 22nd flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific. The two fairings completed their ninth and tenth times respectively.
The leaders in the 2024 launch race:
132 SpaceX
62 China
16 Russia
13 Rocket Lab
American private enterprise now leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 151 to 94, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including American companies, 132 to 113.
Hat tip to reader Geoffrey Carman. I had missed this launch and he let me know.
Curiosity looks down and across Gale Crater
Click for original image.
Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and enhanced to post here, was part of a panorama created by 24 photos taken by the right navigation camera on the Mars rover Curiosity on December 16, 2024.
The view looks west at the foothills that fill the lower slopes of Mount Sharp. In the far distance, about 20 to 30 miles away, can be seen the western rim of Gale Crater, obscured by the dust in the Martian atmosphere.
Curiosity is presently contouring west along the mountain slope. As it goes it will pass a series of canyons coming down the mountainside. The goal is to eventually reach the canyon the science team has chosen to take for climbing that mountain.
Note the rocky ground. One of the surprises found as Curiosity left the crater floor and started climbing Mount Sharp about four years ago is the rockiness of the terrain. Unlike Earth, Mars’s atmosphere and environment does not have the activity to smooth out this landscape. While science data suggests flowing water was once present here, it wasn’t here long enough to smooth things out. And the atmosphere is just too thin.
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Astronomers discover 1st binary star system orbiting Milky Way’s central supermassive black hole
The stars orbiting Sag A*. Click for original image.
Using infrared spectroscopic data gathered from 2005 to 2019 by the Very Large Telescope in Chile, astronomers have identified the first known binary star system to orbit Sagittarius A* (pronounced “A-star”), the Milky Way’s central supermassive black hole.
You can read their science paper here [pdf]. The white dot at the center of the map to the right marks the location of Sagittarius A*, while the red dot marks the present location of the binary star, dubbed D9. The other objects are the stars previously identified orbiting the central black hole, all of which are now believed to be single stars. The binary D9 has an estimated orbit around Sagittarius A* of 432 years and is thought to be less than three million years old. The two stars have approximate masses of 3.86 and 2.8 solar masses, with the smaller orbiting the larger every 372 days.
There is a lot of uncertainty in these numbers, but the data identifying the binary is quite firm. This discovery, as well as the many other stars now known to orbit Sagittarius A*, show that star formation so close to a supermassive black hole is not only possible, it is common, something astronomers a decade ago thought impossible.
New manned Dragon capsule forces NASA to shuffle ISS crew launch and return schedules
In order to give SpaceX more time to complete work on a new manned Dragon capsule, raising its fleet of capsules to five, NASA has shuffled its springtime ISS crew launch and return schedules.
The change gives NASA and SpaceX teams time to complete processing on a new Dragon spacecraft for the mission. The new spacecraft is set to arrive to the company’s processing facility in Florida in early January. “Fabrication, assembly, testing, and final integration of a new spacecraft is a painstaking endeavor that requires great attention to detail,” said Steve Stich, manager, NASA’s Commercial Crew Program.
…NASA and SpaceX assessed various options for managing the next crewed handover, including using another Dragon spacecraft and manifest adjustments. After careful consideration, the team determined that launching Crew-10 in late March, following completion of the new Dragon spacecraft, was the best option for meeting NASA’s requirements and achieving space station objectives for 2025.
This decision however impacts the return of the Dragon crew presently on board ISS, including the two astronauts launched in June on Boeing’s Starliner capsule and whose stay was extended from its initial length of one-to-eight weeks to more than six months when NASA made the decision to bring Starliner home unmanned. Instead of returning in February 2024, that crew will now have to return after the next crew arrives in late March.
Most of the press has focused on this two month extension to the Starliner crew, but to me the real news is that SpaceX is building a fifth manned capsule, as yet unnamed. Having five reusable capsules will give the company greater flexibility. I suspect SpaceX decided to build this additional capsule because, in addition to its ISS missions for NASA, it is going to be flying in 2025 both an Axiom mission to ISS as well as a 30-day mission to Vast’s Haven-1 space station. That latter mission will tie up one manned capsule for many months both before and after that long flight.
Dragon cargo capsule returns from ISS
A Dragon cargo capsule that has spent the last seven weeks docked to ISS splashed down off the coast of Florida today, bringing back several thousand pounds of experiments and equipment.
It had brought about 6,000 pounds of experiments, supplies, and equipment when launched on November 4, 2024.
Second launch attempt by Japanese rocket startup fails about 90 seconds after liftoff
Japanese spaceports
The second orbital launch attempt by Japanese rocket startup Space One of its Kairos rocket failed about 90 seconds after liftoff when the rocket started to spiral out of control and mission controllers were forced to destroy it.
The link above starts just before launch. You can see the rocket begin to fly out of control, and start spiraling. Shortly thereafter it disappears from view.
The map to the right shows the location in Japan of its private launch facility, dubbed Spaceport Kii. The spaceport of Japan’s space agency JAXA, where all of the country’s previous launches have taken place, is at Tanegashima on a island in the south of Japan.
Space One’s first orbital attempt failed in March when the rocket blew up mere seconds after lift-off.
The company has some major Japanese investors, including Canon Electronics and Mitsubishi, so I would expect it will have the finances to try again.
FAA issues license for SpaceX’s seventh test flight of Starship/Superheavy
My, what a difference an election makes! FAA today proudly announced that it has issued the launch license for SpaceX’s seventh test flight of Starship/Superheavy at Boca Chica, now tentatively set for mid-January.
I say “proudly” because of this quote in the announcement:
“The FAA continues to increase efficiencies in our licensing determination activities to meet the needs of the commercial space transportation industry,” said the Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation Kelvin B. Coleman. “This license modification that we are issuing is well ahead of the Starship Flight 7 launch date and is another example of the FAA`s commitment to enable safe space transportation.”
For the past three years it was like pulling teeth to get the FAA to issue these licenses for Starship/Superheavy test flights. Every time SpaceX had to wait from one to six months extra, and would only get the license mere hours before launch. During that time the FAA made no effort to “increase efficiencies” in its licensing process. Instead it found more ways to slow things down, not just for SpaceX but for the entire launch industry.
Trump gets elected and now suddenly the agency is interested in reducing red tape? What you are seeing instead a lot of bureaucrats desperately trying to convince the incoming administration that the delays for the past three years were not their fault, that they were really against red tape!
Or to put it more bluntly: “Please don’t fire us!”
I hope Trump doesn’t fall for this. A major house-cleaning in management and regulations is necessary at the FAA, and it must be done fast.
December 17, 2024 Quick space links
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.
- Airbus wins contract to build 100 OneWeb satellites
These 2nd generation satellites are to maintain the constellation presently in orbit.
Using a new first stage booster, SpaceX launches two communications satellites
In what has become a rare event, SpaceX today used a brand new first stage to successfully place two SES communications satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Kennedy in Florida.
The first stage landed safely on a drone ship in the Atlantic. The two fairing halves completed their second and twenty-second flights respectively.
The leaders in the 2024 launch race:
131 SpaceX
62 China
16 Russia
13 Rocket Lab
American private enterprise still leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 150 to 94, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including American companies, 131 to 113.
Starlink revenue in 2025 now projected to be $11.8 billion
Capitalism in space: According to one industry market research firm, SpaceX is expected to earn $11.8 billion in revenue in 2025 from its Starlink satellite constellation, a gigantic increase from its estimate for 2024.
SpaceX’s satellite internet service Starlink is projected to reach $11.8 billion in revenue next year, driven by strong consumer demand and growing U.S. military contracts, according to a new market analysis. The forecast, released by the market research firm Quilty Space, represents a substantial increase from the estimated $7.7 billion in revenue for 2024, highlighting Starlink’s rapid growth trajectory in the satellite communications market.
The rise in revenue has been fueled by two factors, the growth in consumer subscribers to the system, and the addition of Space Force contracts that use SpaceX Starshield version of its Starlink satellites.
These numbers are quite spectacular. In the past seven years SpaceX had raised about $12 billion in private investment capital to build both its Starlink constellation and its Starship/Superheavy rocket. Starlink now produces that amount of money for the company each year.
In other words, SpaceX no longer needs NASA as a customer. It has the resources to complete development of Starship, in all its iterations, without any government help. If it wishes to funnel some of this income back into Starship and Superheavy to launch its own missions to Mars, it can.
Europe to spend $11 billion to build its own Starlink government constellation
The European Union has now finalized its $11 billion plan to build a government-owned 290 satellite constellation, dubbed IRIS2, to compete with Starlink and the many other private constellations already launching.
On 16 December, ESA, the European Commission, and the SpaceRIDE consortium, led by European satellite operators SES, Eutelsat, and Hispasat, signed a €10.55 billion, 12-year concession contract to develop the IRIS2 constellation.
…Under the contract terms, the EU will contribute €6 billion, the consortium €4 billion, and ESA €550 million toward the total value. In addition to the consortium’s three leads, the key partners include Thales Alenia Space, OHB, Airbus Defence and Space, Telespazio, Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Hisdesat, and Thales SIX.
As is usual for government projects, and especially for European ones, the time table for construction and launch is as slow as molasses. The first satellite won’t be launched until 2029, with the service not available until 2030. By that time there will be multiple such constellations in orbit, not just Starlink, offering services at rates far less than this system will likely offer.
This project is really nothing more than crony capitalism, creating a project to funnel government money to all these big European corporations. Fortunately, the project does demand they commit some of their own funds, which will at least act to keep them relatively honest.
Europe however would be better off leaving this to the companies entirely. If both SpaceX, OneWeb, and Amazon can build their internet constellations without government funds, why can’t these big European companies?
New computer simulations suggest Saturn’s rings are not young but formed at the same time as the solar system
Click for original source.
The uncertainty of science: Scientists doing computer simulations now posit that Saturn’s rings are not young, between 100 to 400 million years old as has been believed for the last few decades, but formed instead when Saturn formed, 4.6 billion years ago.
You can read their paper here [pdf].
The young age had been based on data from the Cassini orbiter, which showed the ring particles to be very bright and clean. If old those particles would have been darker as they accumulated dust over time on their surface. The new computer simulations suggest a process whereby those particles get “cleaned,” thus making it possible for the rings to be very old, possibly as old as Saturn itself.
Must I point out the uncertainties? The paper itself admits in its abstract “uncertainties in our models that assume no porosity, strength, or ring particle granularity.” Seems these assumptions make the conclusions very uncertain indeed.
Then again, the previous young estimates of the age of the rings had many similar assumptions and uncertainties. Essentially, we don’t have enough information to make any definitive determinations.
T-Mobile initiates direct-cell-to-satellite texting using Starlink
As expected after the most recent Starlink launch, T-Mobile has now begun offering its customers beta registration for using Starlink satellites for texting in areas where no cell towers exist.
The free beta program is available to all T-Mobile customers with compatible devices and postpaid voice plans, the telco announced Dec. 16, although first responders will receive priority access due to limited initial capacity. The company declined to detail capacity and device restrictions but said the beta program would gradually expand to more devices via software updates. “Spots are limited but the service will be available in most areas and most of the time,” a T-Mobile spokesperson said.
The goal right now is to test the system and get user feedback.
Thailand signs the Artemis Accords
Thailand yesterday became the 51st nation to sign the Artemis Accords, joining the American alliance in space.
The full list of nations now part of this American space alliance: Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Panama, Peru, Poland, Romania, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, the Ukraine, the United States and Uruguay.
Trump created the accords with the goal to create an alliance with enough clout to overcome the Outer Space Treaty’s restrictions on private property. Biden rewrote the goal to accomplish the exact opposite, as NASA states in all recent press releases about new nations joining:
The Artemis Accords are grounded in the Outer Space Treaty and other agreements including the Registration Convention, the Rescue and Return Agreement, as well as best practices and norms of responsible behavior that NASA and its partners have supported, including the public release of scientific data.
I expect there to be a shift back to the original goals in the second Trump administration.
China and SpaceX complete launches
Two launches today. First China launched four Earth observation radar satellites, its Long March 2D rocket lifting off from its Taiyuan spaceport in northeast China. No word where the rocket’s lower stages, using very toxic hypergolic fuels, crashed within China.
SpaceX then launched a GPS-type satellite for the Space Force, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral. Little was released about the payload and what information was released was not very informative. The first stage completed its fourth flight, landing softly on a drone ship in the Atlantic.
The leaders in the 2024 launch race:
130 SpaceX
62 China
16 Russia
13 Rocket Lab
American private enterprise still leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 149 to 94, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including American companies, 130 to 113.
December 16, 2024 Quick space links
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.
- After its spectrum approval was withdrawn by Liechtenstein, satellite company Rivada searches for another national regulatory body to give its approval
It is unclear why Liechtenstein withdrew its license for this 600 satellite constellation. The company has since applied in Germany.
- ULA touts its Vulcan upper stage as a military “space interceptor”
It is really unclear how this would work.
- Today in 1965 Pioneer 6 was launched, the first of a four-satellite constellation to study the solar wind
The satellites discovered that the solar wind is made up of a fast and slow wind, and that the solar cycle correlated with the rise and fall of cosmic radiation entering the solar system.
- On this day in 1965 Gemini-6 astronauts suddenly reported seeing an unidentified “satellite going from north to south, probably in a polar orbit”
They then began playing “Jingle Bells” on a harmonica and bell set, indicating the “satellite” involved a sled and reindeer.
The spacecraft not only flew past Venus on its way to flying past Halley’s Comet, it also put a lander on Venus and a French balloon in its atmosphere.