FAA: No Starship/Superheavy launch until we say so!

9:30 am

We’re here to help you! The FAA yesterday stated in no uncertain terms that there will be no additional orbital test launches of SpaceX’s Starship/Superheavy until it has decided the launch will be safe.

The FAA, which is overseeing an investigation into the April 20 launch, said Wednesday it was still awaiting the report it needs to identify corrective actions SpaceX must take to get the OK to launch again from Boca Chica.

An FAA spokesperson declined to speculate when the agency’s investigation might be completed, saying that “public safety and actions yet to be taken by SpaceX will dictate the timeline.”

“The FAA will not allow a return to flight operations until it determines that any system, process, or procedure related to the mishap does not affect public safety or any other aspect of the operator’s license,” the spokesperson said. “The mishap investigation is ongoing.”

The implication that the FAA is awaiting completion of SpaceX’s own investigation sounds like an attempt to shift the blame for the delay from the government to SpaceX, even though the company has made it very evident in words and deeds that it is moving quickly and will be ready to launch in August.

This threat of a delay is hardly a surprise. I predicted in late April that the federal bureaucracy is targeting SpaceX, and by late May predicted the the FAA would block this August launch attempt.

It is also important to underline the fact that there is absolutely no one at the FAA capable of or knowledgeable enough to competently assess the safety of the next launch. The only people who can really do that are the engineers at SpaceX. All the FAA can do is reject SpaceX’s investigation — for political reasons — and demand SpaceX take additional actions, based merely on random guesses as to what needs to be done. And it can keep doing this repeatedly.

This launch is likely to be delayed many months. You heard it here first.

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Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

 

The print edition can be purchased at Amazon, any other book seller, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

July 26, 2023 Quick space links

4:10 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay.

 

 

 

 

 

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Democrats now favor oppression and censorship by almost 3 to 1

1:57 pm

Key result from Pew survey
Click for original image.

Blacklists are back and the Democrats have got ’em: A poll released this week by the Pew Research Center has starkly revealed the dark oppressive mentality that now dominates supporters of the Democratic Party, and makes possible the enthusiasm for blacklisting and censorship by its leadership.

The graph to the right shows the big take-away from the poll, as indicated by the arrows and the red box. Democrats now favor censorship by 70 to 28 percent, a major rise since 2018, when their attitude towards free speech was almost identical to Republicans. Since then, while Republican support for the First Amendment and freedom has remained largely stable and strong, Democrats have almost entirely abandoned these American ideals. As Pew notes:

There was virtually no difference between the parties in 2018, but the share of Democrats who support government intervention has grown from 40% in 2018 to 70% in 2023, while the share of Republicans who hold this view hasn’t changed much.

There is a similar gap between the shares of Democrats and Republicans who say technology companies should restrict false information online. A large majority of Democrats and Democratic leaners (81%) support technology companies taking such steps, while about half of Republicans (48%) say the same. The share of Democrats who support technology companies taking these steps has also increased steadily since 2018.

These partisan gaps persist when it comes to restricting extremely violent content online. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say that the U.S. government (71% vs. 48%, respectively) and tech companies (83% vs. 61%) should take steps to restrict violent content online even if it limits freedom of information.

I must add that this is not a poll of the politicians of the Democratic Party. It is a poll of that party’s supporters, its rank and file, its grass roots. And though the poll showed a rise in the willingness to censor across all age groups, the cause of that rise is clearly coming from Democrats. As noted by Alex Berenson,
» Read more

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Conscious Choice cover

Now available in hardback and paperback as well as ebook!

 

From the press release: In this ground-breaking new history of early America, historian Robert Zimmerman not only exposes the lie behind The New York Times 1619 Project that falsely claims slavery is central to the history of the United States, he also provides profound lessons about the nature of human societies, lessons important for Americans today as well as for all future settlers on Mars and elsewhere in space.

 
Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space, is a riveting page-turning story that documents how slavery slowly became pervasive in the southern British colonies of North America, colonies founded by a people and culture that not only did not allow slavery but in every way were hostile to the practice.  
Conscious Choice does more however. In telling the tragic history of the Virginia colony and the rise of slavery there, Zimmerman lays out the proper path for creating healthy societies in places like the Moon and Mars.

 

“Zimmerman’s ground-breaking history provides every future generation the basic framework for establishing new societies on other worlds. We would be wise to heed what he says.” —Robert Zubrin, founder of the Mars Society.

 

All editions are available at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and all book vendors, with the ebook priced at $5.99 before discount. All editions can also be purchased direct from the ebook publisher, ebookit, in which case you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.

 

Autographed printed copies are also available at discount directly from the author (hardback $29.95; paperback $14.95; Shipping cost for either: $6.00). Just send an email to zimmerman @ nasw dot org.

Giant glaciers in the northern Martian mid-latitudes

12:57 pm

Overview map

Giant glaciers in the northern Martian mid-latitudes
Click for original image.

It is time for two cool images! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on May 10, 2023 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO), and is one of two glaciers imaged by MRO in May that are among a whole series of glaciers flowing down the south wall of the same mesa.

The red dot in the inset and on the overview map above marks the location of the picture to the right. The white dot marks the location of the May 27, 2023 picture, which can be seen here.

The unnamed 10,000-foot-high mesa from which these glaciers flow, located in the middle of the 2,000-mile-long northern mid-latitude strip I dub glacier glacier country, is about 41 miles long and 18 miles wide at its widest point. The glacier to the right falls about 6,000 feet in about four miles, making the grade steep, ranging from 15 to 23 degrees. That steepness explains the split in the glacier, as it flowed around a huge piece of higher bedrock in the middle of this descending hollow.

Both images provide further evidence of the dominance of glaciers in this mid-latitude region. While the glaciers are all covered with dust and debris to protect the ice, and are also thought at present to all be inactive, they also all suggest a very dynamic Martian geological and climate history, one that will likely come alive again as the planet’s rotational tilt naturally shifts back and forth from its present 25 degree tilt to 11 to 60 degrees.

The glaciers also show us again that Mars is not a dry desert, but above 30 degrees latitude it is an icy desert much like Antarctica. Colonists will have no trouble finding water.

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Optical image of accretion disk around baby star, taken by ground-based VLT

10:59 am

Stellar accretion disk
Click for original image.

Scientists today released an optical image of the accretion disk that surrounds a baby star about 5,000 light years away, taken by ground-based Very Large Telescope (VLT) in Chile and enhanced by data from the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA), also in Chile.

That image, reduced to post here, is to the right. The bright blue spot in the center is the main star, with the smaller dot to the lower left a companion star. From the press release:

The VLT observations probe the surface of the dusty material around the star, while ALMA can peer deeper into its structure. “With ALMA, it became apparent that the spiral arms are undergoing fragmentation, resulting in the formation of clumps with masses akin to those of planets,” says Zurlo.

Astronomers believe that giant planets form either by ‘core accretion’, when dust grains come together, or by ‘gravitational instability’, when large fragments of the material around a star contract and collapse. While researchers have previously found evidence for the first of these scenarios, support for the latter has been scant.

This data suggests that the latter is being observed, the first time gravitational instability has been identified as it is happening. You can read the scientist’s research paper here [pdf].

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Leaving Earth cover

Leaving Earth: Space Stations, Rival Superpowers, and the Quest for Interplanetary Travel, can be purchased as an ebook everywhere for only $3.99 (before discount) at amazon, Barnes & Noble, all ebook vendors, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit.

 

If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big oppressive tech companies and I get a bigger cut much sooner.

 

Winner of the 2003 Eugene M. Emme Award of the American Astronautical Society.

 
"Leaving Earth is one of the best and certainly the most comprehensive summary of our drive into space that I have ever read. It will be invaluable to future scholars because it will tell them how the next chapter of human history opened." -- Arthur C. Clarke

Infrared Webb image of a binary baby star system and its surrounding jets and nebula

10:47 am

Webb infrared image of HH 46/47
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The infrared picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken by the Webb Space Telescope of the jets and nebula of the Herbig–Haro object dubbed HH 46/47, thought to contain a pair of baby stars under formation.

The most striking details are the two-sided lobes that fan out from the actively forming central stars, represented in fiery orange. Much of this material was shot out from those stars as they repeatedly ingest and eject the gas and dust that immediately surround them over thousands of years.

When material from more recent ejections runs into older material, it changes the shape of these lobes. This activity is like a large fountain being turned on and off in rapid, but random succession, leading to billowing patterns in the pool below it. Some jets send out more material and others launch at faster speeds. Why? It’s likely related to how much material fell onto the stars at a particular point in time.­­­

The stars’ more recent ejections appear in a thread-like blue. They run just below the red horizontal diffraction spike at 2 o’clock. Along the right side, these ejections make clearer wavy patterns. They are disconnected at points, and end in a remarkable uneven light purple circle in the thickest orange area. Lighter blue, curly lines also emerge on the left, near the central stars, but are sometimes overshadowed by the bright red diffraction spike.

To see optical images of HH 46/47 as well as some further background, go here. It is one of the most studied HH objects, which is why it was given priority in Webb’s early observation schedule.

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A Dragon cargo capsule had a valve issue at ISS in June

10:30 am

The Dragon cargo capsule that had been docked to ISS in June apparently had a faulty valve that impacted no operations but has required SpaceX to review similar valves on all manned and cargo Dragon capsules.

The valve — known as an isolation valve — is designed to come on in case of a thruster leak, Reed said during the press conference. Since no leak was happening at the time it was stuck open, the valve “didn’t have to serve any purpose.”

The affected spacecraft, known as CRS-28, otherwise returned to Earth normally on June 30 after 25 days in space. After checking into the valve on CRS-28, SpaceX looked at its entire spacecraft line. They found “corrosion among certain units,” Reed said, which SpaceX is looking into identifying and addressing.

Knowing SpaceX, it will now not only find out the root cause, but fix it so that the corrosion never appears again, thus making its Dragon spacecraft even more reliable.

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Houston mission control loses contact with ISS for about 90 minutes

10:25 am

NASA’s mission control in Houston yesterday lost contact with ISS for about ninety minutes during work at the Johnson Space Center, an outage apparently caused or related to upgrade work being done there.

Back-up systems were activated but not used, while communications continued through Russia’s mission control in Moscow. Nor was anyone on the station ever in any danger, according to NASA officials.

The only concern with such an outage would be the many systems on the American half of ISS that are closely controlled and maintained by the ground. On the Russian half the goal has always been to build its station modules so they could run independent of ground operations.

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A third spaceport approved in Scotland

10:18 am

Despite some local opposition, a third spaceport has been approved in Scotland, allowing up to ten suborbital launches per year.

During launches, a 155m (250km) exclusion zone will be placed on the seas around St Kilda, the world-heritage site and archipelago north west of the site. It will be the third of its kind in Scotland, after spaceports were launched in Sutherland and Shetland.

The project, spearheaded by Comhairle nan Eilean Siar – Western Isles Council – has been met with opposition from locals with more than 1,000 people signing a petition rejecting the plans.

…Comhairle nan Eilean Siar had previously bought Scolpaig Farm for £1m and is developing it with private military contractor QinetiQ alongside space industry firms Rhea Group and Commercial Space Technologies.

It is unclear if the spaceport will eventually upgrade to providing orbital launch facilities. It will also have to compete with the two other spaceports in Scotland, as well as get launch approvals from the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority.

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New Space Force language would give it the power to take over all commercial space assets

10:04 am

A new draft outlining the powers of the Space Force would give it the right to shut down all commercial space activities during any government declared emergency, giving it exclusive control over all space assets, whether built or owned by the government or private companies.

The Space Force’s draft framework for how commercial satellite services could be called up in times of crisis or conflict to support military missions would allow the Defense Department to deny participating companies the right to sell their wares to any other client in times of “war, major conflict, national or international emergency.”

According the draft, the government would also not be required to cover any losses to the companies. In other words, in clear violation of the fifth amendment to the Constitution forbidding the taking of any private property without just compensation, this draft regulation would allow the military to do exactly that. And it won’t require a war, merely a declared emergency, similar to the unjustified emergency declared when COVID arrived.

At this time the draft language has only been issued for industry comment. I suspect the entire space industry will oppose it strenuously. I also expect the government to yield reluctantly, using its financial power to issue major contracts as a wedge to garner some industry compromises.

The result, as with the FCC and the FAA in the two stories below, will be a more powerful administrative state in DC, wielding power the Constitution expressly forbids it to wield.

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Varda blocked from bringing its capsule back to Earth by FAA

9:49 am

Varda has been forced to delay the first return of its capsule from space, loaded with a drug designed to treat HIV/AIDS that can only be manufactured in weightlessness, because the FAA has so far refused to issue “a re-entry license,” a new regulatory power grab the FAA instituted two years ago supposedly to “streamline the launch and reentry licensing process.”

This new language, which I was unaware of and know of no Congressional act approving it, has done exactly the opposite.

A key issue, he said, is that Varda is the first to seek a reentry license under new FAA regulations known as Part 450. Those regulations were enacted by the FAA more than two years ago to streamline the launch and reentry licensing process.

…For the commercial launch industry, the Part 450 regulations have become an area of concern. Only a handful of Part 450 launch licenses have been issued to date as the FAA begins a transition to the new regulations, but those licenses have taken longer to complete than expected, in some cases missing a 180-day statutory deadline. Industry officials raised the issue at a July 13 hearing of the House Science Committee and at a July 11 meeting of an FAA advisory group, the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee. [emphasis mine]

The highlighted language says it all. It also suggests these new regulations, apparently written by the FAA and not Congress, might be contributing to the delays being experienced by SpaceX in its attempt to do test launches of its Starship/Superheavy rocket.

Varda is presently hoping to return the capsule in mid-August. It had begun this re-entry licensing process in early 2021 — more than two years ago — and still does not have that approval. Its business plan is to make money by manufacturing things in weightlessness that can’t be made on Earth — such as this HIV drug — and returning those items to Earth for sale.

Such a plan can’t work if the federal administrative state stands in the way.

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House rejects FCC bill because the bill approved FCC’s recent power grab

9:35 am

The full House yesterday failed to pass an FCC bill designed “to reform satellite spectrum licensing regulations” because of opposition to language that provided a backdoor approval of the FCC’s recent power grab that extended its regulatory power beyond its legal statutory authority.

[T]he leadership of House Science Committee opposed the bill because of provisions regarding regulation of space debris and space traffic management. They pointed to language in the bill that directed the FCC to establish “specific, measurable, and technology-neutral performance objectives for space safety and orbital debris.”

In a “Dear Colleague” letter circulated to House members ahead of the vote, the bipartisan leadership of the full committee and its space subcommittee argued that the FCC would be overstepping its authority by attempting to regulate space safety. “Congress has never explicitly granted FCC authority to regulate in these areas, and doing so now is a significant policy decision,” the letter stated, adding that the FCC also lacked expertise to do so. “Assigning FCC responsibility to both create these rules and assess an applicant’s compliance would divert resources from FCC’s primary mission of assessing the applicant’s spectrum use.”

While this sounds like Congress has actually decided to exercise its Constitution authority and restrict this maverick agency, don’t bet on it. The vote for procedural reasons required a two-thirds majority. 250 House members voted in favor, and 163 voted against, a clear majority in favor that was only 16 votes short of approval.

Moreover, even if Congress removes the language approving the FCC power grab and then passes the bill, it will have done nothing to stop that power grab. Expect FCC officials under Biden to ignore the law and continue to demand the right to regulate how satellites are de-orbited, something it hasn’t the knowledge or authority to do. Satellite companies will have to sue to stop it, an expensive task that will hinder their operations and cost money. Many will simply decide to go along.

The result will be a more powerful unelected administrative state — beholden to no law — and a weaker Congress unwilling to represent the American citizenry by wielding its Constitutional power.

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July 25, 2023 Quick space links

5:25 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay.

 

 

  • ULA CEO outlines planned schedule for first three Vulcan launches

    • He says, the first in the fourth quarter 2023, the second in the first half of 2024, and the third in second half of 2024. The first two flights are necessary before the military will certify Vulcan for its launches. Since the military is ULA’s biggest customer, it desperately needs those very delayed launches to fly as soon as possible.

 

 

 

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The grassroots revolt led by mothers

2:24 pm

The Liberty Bell
“Proclaim liberty throughout all the land unto all
the inhabitants thereof.” Photo credit: William Zhang

Bring a gun to a knife fight: The recent upheavals at school board meetings over the effort by public school officials to insert pornography in elementary schools — against the will of parents — points to a revolution that is likely not to end until either the public schools change drastically, or die because parent cease sending their kids to these schools.

The ramifications however could extend far beyond the classroom.

This revolution is best illustrated by Moms for Liberty, a new organization only three years old that has grown to become a major political factor in school board elections, and thus by proxy a major influence on larger elections on the local, state, and even national level.

Nor have they restricted themselves to protesting at school board meetings. [Moms for Liberty] have endorsed and actively supported parent-friendly candidates for school board seats nationwide. In 2022, they supported 500 candidates, 275 of whom won. Moreover, their candidates took control of 17 school boards in California, Florida, Indiana, Minnesota, New Jersey, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Moms for Liberty has now set its sights on school board elections in 2024, even as the organization enjoys rapidly growing conservative support and donor funding.

» Read more

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Swirling layers in the basement of Mars

11:28 am

Swirling layers in the basement of Mars
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on March 31, 2023 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).

In labeling this picture the science team focused on the many layers visible in these swirls, all suggesting a series of cyclical events, each laying down a new layer over many eons.

What caused the swirls? Looking at the lower right quadrant it appears that they were glacial, with the flow to the northwest but with each glacial layer smaller and not reaching as far.

This theory falls apart however at the curved depression, which instead suggests the swirl was traveling along a meandering canyon, going from the lower left to the upper right. If so, the curved depression is even more baffling. If ice it could have sublimated away, but its sharp edges suggest this isn’t ice but maybe a lava flow.
» Read more

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ESA: Ariane-6’s launch systems tests “progressing well”

9:30 am

According to a press release today from the European Space Agency (ESA), tests of the launch systems for its new Ariane-6 rocket are “progressing well”, though this particular test program was unable to finish its launch countdown rehearsal on July 18th with an actual static fire engine test of the rocket’s first stage engine.

The launch simulation included the removal of the mobile gantry, the chill-down of ground and launcher fluidic systems, the filling of the upper and core stage tanks with liquid hydrogen (–253°C) and liquid oxygen (–183°C), and at the end of the test, the successful completion of a launch chronology up to the ignition of the Vulcain 2.1 engine thrust chamber by the ground system.

During the 26-hour exercise, the teams successfully tested many degraded and contingency modes, demonstrating that the launcher and the launch base fit correctly. Operational procedures, lower and upper stages, avionics, software, launch base and control bench worked correctly together, and the performance of the full launch system was measured with excellent results.

The last part of the test – a short ignition of the Vulcain 2.1 engine – had to be postponed to the next test session as time ran out. The teams are now working towards continuing the exercise, in preparation for a long duration hot firing test later this summer. [emphasis mine]

The highlighted words imply a certain leisureliness on ESA’s part, an impression that might be wrong but it is the impression this language gives out. One wonders why the launch countdown could not have been completed to that static fire engine burst. “Time running out” seems a very lame reason, especially since ESA no longer has the Ariane-5 rocket and the Ariane-6 to replace it is years behind schedule.

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JPL employee admits he used COVID money fraudulently to grow pot

9:12 am

A JPL employee has pled guilty to lying on his applications for COVID loans in order to use the money “to pay off a real estate debt and fund his illegal cultivation of marijuana.”

Armen Hovanesian, 32, of Glendale, agreed to plead guilty to defrauding a government sponsored loan plan in 2020, admitting to using some of the fraudulently obtained cash to fund an illegal marijuana cultivation operation. Hovanesian works as a cost-control and budget-planning resource analyst for the JPL, which is a federally funded research lab for NASA, according to the United States Department of Justice.

From June 2020 to October 2020, Hovanesian submitted three loan applications to the Economic Injury Disaster Loan Program for businesses he operated. The program provided low-interest financing to small businesses, renters and homeowners affected by disasters, including the coronavirus pandemic. As part of his plea agreement, he admitted to making false and fraudulent statements when applying for the loans, including lying about each business’s revenue from the previous year, as well as making “false and fraudulent” statements regarding what he planned to do with the money if approved for the loans. [emphasis mine]

That this guy’s job at JPL was essentially a bean counter suggests this might help explain the center’s recent budget and management problems. It certainly indicates the quality of its management has declined.

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NASA awards 11 small development contracts to a variety of companies

9:01 am

Capitalism in space: NASA today announced that it has awarded small contracts to eleven different companies, ranging from big established companies like ULA and Lockheed Martin to small startups like Varda and Zeno, for developing a range of new technologies, from power production on the Moon to making building materials from lunar soil.

Five of the technologies will help humanity explore the Moon. For astronauts to spend extended periods of time on the lunar surface, they will need habitats, power, transportation, and other infrastructure. Two of the selected projects will use the Moon’s own surface material to create such infrastructure – a practice called in-situ resource utilization, or ISRU. Redwire will develop technologies that would allow use of lunar regolith to build infrastructure like roads, foundations for habitats, and landing pads.

Blue Origin’s technology could also make use of local resources by extracting elements from lunar regolith to produce solar cells and wire that could then be used to power work on the Moon.

Astrobotic’s selected proposal will advance technology to distribute power on the Moon’s surface, planned to be tested on a future lunar mission. The company’s CubeRover would unreel more than half a mile (one kilometer) of high-voltage power line that could be used to transfer power from a production system to a habitat or work area on the Moon.

The contracts range in price from $1.6 to $34.7 million, with Blue Origin getting that largest award.

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Rocket Lab delays its private mission to Venus two years to ’25

8:51 am

In order to focus at this time on its commercial customers, Rocket Lab has decided to reschedule its private mission to Venus, delaying its two years to the next launch window in 2025.

The mission appeared to still be on in May, before Rocket Lab quietly put it on the back-burner last month. Spokesperson Morgan Bailey said it had decided to delay the mission so it could concentrate on its commercial launches. “The decision was a business one and we look forward to delivering the Venus mission in 2025,” she said.

It also appears that the mission could be pushed back further if customer demand requires it.

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July 24, 2023 Quick space links

5:09 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay.

 

 

  • Details on recently awarded NASA unfunded agreements with seven companies

    • Jay notes, “Only two of the seven companies have anything physical: SpaceX and Northup-Grumman.” I must add however that Northrop Grumman’s proposal has to do with things it hasn’t built yet. SpaceX as usual has the most compelling idea: reconfiguring Starship as an orbital space station.

    Since NASA is providing no funds, I am not sure what the companies are getting from the agency in winning these contracts. Its engineers can provide some technical advice for sure, but in the end all they really can do is provide a second pair of eyes to review the work. Or to put it another way, someone whose only job will be to say “no.”

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The trench war continues in the Ukraine

12:51 pm

The continuing trench war in Ukraine
For the original maps, go here (April 16, 2023)
and here (July 23, 2023).

My last full update on the Ukraine War, on April 17, 2023, was written about the time that the Russian winter offensive had ended (with generally empty results) and a counter-offensive by the Ukrainians was expected to begin.

At that time I concluded as follows:

The Ukrainians have no hope of getting [sufficient] military aid from the rest of the world. Unless the Russians can bring [vastly larger] numbers to this battlefield, something that seems unlikely based on the present political situation in Russia, it now appears that this war is devolving into a World War I-style trench war. Neither side can make any significant gains militarily, and neither side is willing to negotiate a settlement.

Based on that assessment, I expected the Ukrainian spring/summer offensive to be as ineffective as the Russian winter campaign. This has proven true. The map above, adapted from maps created by the Institute for the Study of War, illustrates the general lack of change in either direction along the entire northern frontline. Though the Ukraine has made some minor gains north and south of Bakmut (as noted in ISW’s July 23, 2023 update), it has not succeeded in recapturing the city. Meanwhile, the Russians have made some minor gains to the north, west of the cities Svatova and Kreminna.

Similarly, though the Ukraine has made some small gains along the southern frontline (compare this April 16th map with this July 23rd map), none of those gains have been of any great significance. The Ukraine’s long pause in offensive operations, from November 2022 until April 2023, allowed the Russians to build a deep and extensive defensive set-up, including many minefields that have slowed Ukrainian advances to barely a crawl.

In addition, it appears that the flooding from the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in the south has almost entirely benefited the Russians, blocking what appears to have been a major Ukrainian plan to invade across the Dneiper River. Since the dam break, the Ukraine has been pushing at the one major bridge still standing, but with no real success. Since the Ukrainians do not appear to have the ability to make an amphibious assault, the Russians need only defend this one bridge, and have so far been able to.

In its June 14, 2023 update, ISW noted the following about the Russian defensive setup:
» Read more

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No, that is not a sunspot on Mars!

11:33 am

No, that is not a sunspot on Mars!
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped to post here, was taken on April 20, 2023 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). While at first glance this Martian terrain vaguely resembles the granular surface of the Sun, with the largest depression having its own faint resemblance to a sunspot, the resemblance exists only in our feverish imagination.

The depression might have been formed by an impact, though it is also possible it is a caldera, not of lava but of ice processes. The granular surface is likely resulting from the sublimation of ice, creating random holes and ridges as underground material changes from ice to gas and escapes at weak points on the surface.

My guess that we are looking at ice processes is based on the location, not far from where the first manned spacecraft will likely land.
» Read more

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Spirals within spirals

8:58 am

Spirals within spirals
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and annotated to post here, was taken by the Hubble Space Telescope as part of two different research projects that are studying galaxies where supernovae previously occurred. This particular galaxy is estimated to be about 192 million light years away, and is a classic example of a barred spiral.

Despite appearing as an island of tranquillity in this image, UGC 12295 played host to a catastrophically violent explosion — a supernova — that was first detected in 2015. This supernova prompted two different teams of astronomers to propose Hubble observations of UGC 12295 that would sift through the wreckage of this vast stellar explosion.

Supernovae are the explosive deaths of massive stars, and are responsible for forging many of the elements found here on Earth. The first team of astronomers used Hubble’s Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) to examine the detritus left behind by the supernova in order to better understand the evolution of matter in our Universe.

The second team of astronomers also used WFC3 to explore the aftermath of UGC 12295’s supernova, but their investigation focused on returning to the sites of some of the best-studied nearby supernovae. Hubble’s keen vision can reveal lingering traces of these energetic events, shedding light on the nature of the systems that host supernovae.

What struck me about this picture however were the many smaller spiral galaxies scattered nearby and behind UGC 12295, with one face-on spiral highlighted near the top. I can count at least three or four other background spiral galaxies, all reddish in color likely because their light has been shifted to the red due to their distance.

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SpaceX launches another 22 Starlink satellites

6:01 pm

SpaceX today successfully launched another 22 second generation Starlink satellites, using its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral.

The first stage completed its sixth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic. The two fairings completed their seventh and eighth flights respectively.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

49 SpaceX
29 China
9 Russia
6 Rocket Lab
5 India

American private enterprise now leads China in successful launches 56 to 29, and the entire world combined 56 to 48, with SpaceX by itself leading with the entire world combined (excluding other American companies) 49 to 48.

SpaceX’s 49 successful launches so far this year carries some additional historical significance. This number exceeds the launch count of the entire United States per year from 1968 to 2021, and SpaceX has done it in only a little more than half the year. Its reported goal of completing 100 launches this year remains very much within reach.

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China’s Long March 2D rocket places four satellites into orbit

9:52 am

China’s Long March 2D rocket today put four satellites into orbit, three to provide “remote sensing observation data and provide commercial remote sensing services,” and one “satellite communications technology verification.”

That’s everything China’s state run press tells us. The launch was also from China’s Taiyuan interior spaceport, which means the rocket’s lower stages crashed somewhere in China. No word on whether they attempted to control the landing, or if it crashed near habitable areas.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

48 SpaceX (with a launch planned later today. Live stream here.)
29 China
9 Russia
6 Rocket Lab
5 India

American private enterprise still leads China in successful launches 55 to 29, and the entire world combined 55 to 48, with SpaceX by itself tied with the entire world combined (excluding other American companies) 48 to 48.

The SpaceX launch later today was originally scheduled for yesterday, but got scrubbed due to weather.

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Weekend repost: The Democratic Party of thugs and goons

12:26 pm

The effort by Democrats to censor Democrat Robert Kennedy from speaking at a House hearing on July 20, 2023 focused expressly on documenting censorship and blacklisting not only illustrated the ugly totalitarian nature of the Democratic Party, it also illustrated their utter lack of self-awareness as well as their inability to think, in any way at all.

The moment he started talking, the Democrats went into censorship mode by making motions to censor Kennedy, points of order, accusations, and finally a vote to table Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz’s (D-Fla.) motion to cancel Kennedy’s “testimony and degradation” and put it behind closed doors so the poor American people would not be subjected to words spoken by Joe Biden’s primary opponent.

Their actions at that hearing are not exceptions to the rule, however, they are the rule. In order to make this fact clear, I think it worthwhile reposting an August 2022 essay, which documented their long term goonish storm-trooper behavior. It didn’t just start at that hearing, it has been going on for a long time.

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The Democratic Party of thugs and goons

Rick, stating the truth in Casablanca
Will the Trump raid finally wake Americans up?

While the outrage and fury has only begun to rise over the unjustified raid of the home of former President Donald Trump yesterday by the FBI, ordered by Biden Justice Department with a warrant issued by an Obama-supporting judge with ties to Jeffrey Epstein’s child sex operation, nothing about that raid was anything new or startling. For the past seven years, since Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016, the Democratic Party and its supporters have increasingly acted like Nazi storm-troopers, willing, able, and eager to crush their opponents at every opportunity, and to do so cruelly and with great viciousness.

I therefore ask, shouldn’t we have exhibited the same amount of rage and fury for the hundreds and hundreds of ordinary Americans these same thugs have harassed and ruined since 2016? Why did it take a raid on Trump to finally bring that rage to the forefront?

Two Americans committed suicide because of Biden administration persecution after they dared protest the questionable election of Joe Biden on January 6th. What about them?

Scores of conservative FBI agents in the past two years have been fired from their jobs, simply because they did not agree politically with the Democrats. What about them?

What about the arrest by the FBI of a Republican candidate for Michigan governor, simply because he had also protested on January 6th the questionable election of thug Joe Biden? Or the threats of violence and murder against Supreme Court justices by leftist Democratic Party allies?

What about the effort by Biden’s labor board to shut down the conservative outlet The Federalist, simply because its founder sent out an anti-union joke?

What about the former Trump lawyer whose career was destroyed, simply because he was a former lawyer of Trump?

These stories are only a small sampling of the political abuses of power exercised by Democrats and the Biden administration time after time against their political opponents in just the last eighteen months. The list is long and painful to read.
» Read more

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Indian company Skyroot conducts rocket engine test

11:24 am

Capitalism in space: The Indian rocket startup Skyroot successfully conducted a ten-second static fire test of a new engine, using a test facility of India’s space agency ISRO.

The Modi government has established a policy that ISRO must provide its facilities for private companies to develop their rockets, and this test was another demonstration that this policy is taking hold. It also indicates that Skyroot is getting closer to launching its first orbital rocket, Vikram-1.

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