Next Starship/Superheavy test set for October 13, 2025

8:59 am

The planned return trajectories for both Superheavy and Starship
The planned return trajectories for both
Superheavy and Starship on future tests

In an update posted yesterday on SpaceX’s website, the company revealed that it is targeting October 13, 2025 for the eleventh orbital test flight of its Starship/Superheavy rocket.

The update also provided details about the company will test during this flight, including the reuse of a second Superheavy booster.

The booster on this flight test previously flew on Flight 8 and will launch with 24 flight-proven Raptor engines. Its primary test objective will be demonstrating a unique landing burn engine configuration planned to be used on the next generation Super Heavy. It will attempt this while on a trajectory to an offshore landing point in the Gulf of America and will not return to the launch site for catch.

Upon return the booster will start off by firing thirteen engines, the five, and finally three just before landing, to test refinements to its return to Earth.

Starship meanwhile will mostly repeat with variations the test program from flight 10, including the deployment of dummy Starlink satellites, the relight of one of its Raptor engines, and the testing of different thermal protection systems. It will once again fly a low orbital path that will bring it down in the Indian Ocean, either under control or not. This Starship prototype is the last of version two, so there are a limited number of things it can test.

Beginning with the 12th test flight, the company will begin flying version 3, and will likely quickly move to full orbital flights and a chopstick catch of Starship at Boca Chica, as shown by the flight paths in the graphic to the right.

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Firefly loses first stage for next launch when it explodes during static fire test

8:40 am

During a static fire engine test yesterday in preparation for launch, the rocket startup Firefly lost the first stage when an explosion occurred at what appeared to be the base of the rocket. From the company’s update:

During testing at Firefly’s facility in Briggs, Texas, the first stage of Firefly’s Alpha Flight 7 rocket experienced an event that resulted in a loss of the stage. Proper safety protocols were followed, and all personnel are safe. The company is assessing the impact to its stage test stand, and no other facilities were impacted.

Video of the explosion can be seen here.

This incident will obviously delay the next launch, which had only just been scheduled following the completion of the company’s investigation into its launch failure in April. This explosion also suggests there remain serious issues with the Alpha rocket, which has only had two full successes in six launch attempts.

At the same time, with the successful soft landing of its Blue Ghost lander on the Moon earlier this year, Firefly has demonstrated its engineering can be sound and robust. It just appears that a lot more work needs to be done to get Alpha into shape.

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Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

China launches two “test satellites”

7:46 pm

China earlier today successfully launched two test satellites for “experimental verification of Earth observation technologies, its Long March 2D rocket lifting off from its Xichang space port in southwest China.

No word on where the rocket’s lower stages, using very toxic hypergolic fuels, crashed inside China. The two satellites are part of the Shiyan family of satellites that have done rendezvous and proximity operations as well as surveillance of other satellites in orbit.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

126 SpaceX
58 China
13 Russia
12 Rocket Lab

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 126 to 98.

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Conscious Choice cover

Now available in hardback and paperback as well as ebook!

From the press release: In this ground-breaking new history of early America, historian Robert Zimmerman not only exposes the lie behind The New York Times 1619 Project that falsely claims slavery is central to the history of the United States, he also provides profound lessons about the nature of human societies, lessons important for Americans today as well as for all future settlers on Mars and elsewhere in space.

 
Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space, is a riveting page-turning story that documents how slavery slowly became pervasive in the southern British colonies of North America, colonies founded by a people and culture that not only did not allow slavery but in every way were hostile to the practice.  
Conscious Choice does more however. In telling the tragic history of the Virginia colony and the rise of slavery there, Zimmerman lays out the proper path for creating healthy societies in places like the Moon and Mars.

 

“Zimmerman’s ground-breaking history provides every future generation the basic framework for establishing new societies on other worlds. We would be wise to heed what he says.” —Robert Zubrin, founder of the Mars Society.

 

All editions are available at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and all book vendors, with the ebook priced at $5.99 before discount. All editions can also be purchased direct from the ebook publisher, ebookit, in which case you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.

 

Autographed printed copies are also available at discount directly from the author (hardback $29.95; paperback $14.95; Shipping cost for either: $6.00). Just send an email to zimmerman @ nasw dot org.

September 29, 2025 Quick space links

3:05 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

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Study suggests low dose radiation reduces severe knee pain

11:35 am

A new study suggests that exposing patients with advanced osteoarthritis (OA) to low doses of radiation reduced their pain significantly.

The trial included 114 people with primary knee OA, diagnosed by moderate damage visible on X-rays, and significant pain with walking. They were randomly assigned to one of three groups: very low-dose radiation (0.3 Gy total, spread over six sessions of 0.05 Gy), low-dose radiation (3 Gy total, spread over six sessions of 0.5 Gy), or a sham treatment that did not deliver radiation.

…Each treatment in this trial was 500 mGy, which works out to be 5,000 times the radiation dose of a chest X-ray and around 70 times the dose of a chest CT scan. However, while this sounds like a lot, the treatment delivered in the study is still considered to be low-dose. For radiotherapy cancer treatment, for example, total doses are usually 50 to 70 Gy – so a total of 3 Gy is roughly one-twentieth or less of that.

…Trial participants couldn’t take regular pain meds during the first four months, other than occasional “rescue” meds if needed. No second round of radiation was allowed. The main treatment outcome was how many participants showed significant improvement after four months, as measured by assessments of pain and function.

The 3 Gy group did significantly better than the sham group. About 70% improved vs 42% in the sham group. Over half (57%) of people in the 3 Gy group had a clinically meaningful improvement in joint pain and function scores vs about 31% in the sham group. The 0.3 Gy group didn’t show a statistically significant improvement; about 58% improved. No meaningful differences were seen in blood markers of inflammation or in the amount of pain medication people used. The treatment was deemed to be safe, with no side effects or toxicity reported.

If this result is confirmed, it suggests strongly that especially for the older population there is now a viable treatment for knee pain that avoids surgery and could be far more reliable.

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Leaving Earth cover

Leaving Earth: Space Stations, Rival Superpowers, and the Quest for Interplanetary Travel, can be purchased as an ebook everywhere for only $3.99 (before discount) at amazon, Barnes & Noble, all ebook vendors, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit.

If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big oppressive tech companies and I get a bigger cut much sooner.

 

Winner of the 2003 Eugene M. Emme Award of the American Astronautical Society.

 
"Leaving Earth is one of the best and certainly the most comprehensive summary of our drive into space that I have ever read. It will be invaluable to future scholars because it will tell them how the next chapter of human history opened." -- Arthur C. Clarke

Modeling suggests Uranus’s moon Ariel needed underground oceans to shape its known surface

11:22 am

Ariel as seen by Voyager-2 in 1986
Ariel as seen by Voyager-2 in 1986.
Click for original image.

The uncertainty of science: Using computer modeling based on our scant data of the surface features of the Uranus moon Ariel, scientists now posit that underground oceans, some of gigantic depth as much as 100 miles deep, were required to shape those features.

“First, we mapped out the larger structures that we see on the surface, then we used a computer program to model the tidal stresses on the surface, which result from distortion of Ariel from soccer ball-shaped to slight football-shaped and back as it moves closer and farther from Uranus during its orbit,” Patthoff said. “By combining the model with what we see on the surface, we can make inferences about Ariel’s past eccentricity and how thick the ocean might have been.”

The team found that, in the past, Ariel needed to have an eccentricity of about 0.04 [to create those surface structures]. This is about 40 times larger than its current value. While 0.04 may not sound dramatic, eccentricity can strengthen the effects of tidal stresses, and Ariel’s orbit would have been four times more eccentric than that of Jupiter’s moon Europa, which is wracked by the tidal forces that push and pull it to create its cracked and broken surface. Yet, to the eye, the orbit will still resemble a circle.

“In order to create those fractures, you have to have either a really thin ice on a really big ocean, or a higher eccentricity and a smaller ocean,” Patthoff said. “But either way, we need an ocean to be able to create the fractures that we are seeing on Ariel’s surface.”

This result does not prove an underground ocean now exists, or even if one existed in the past. The data is based on the few fly-by images taken by Voyager-2 when it passed close to Uranus in 1986. Coverage of the entire surface of Ariel was not complete, nor did the images have much resolution. The data is suggestive of this conclusion, but not conclusive by any means.

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Webb: Accretion disk surrounding exoplanet rich in carbon molecules

10:14 am

Using the Webb Space Telescope, scientists have detected a host of carbon molecules inside an accretion disk that surrounds an exoplanet circling a baby star 625 light years away.

Infrared observations of CT Cha b were made with Webb’s MIRI (Mid-Infrared Instrument) using its medium resolution spectrograph. An initial look into Webb’s archival data revealed signs of molecules within the circumplanetary disk, which motivated a deeper dive into the data.

…Ultimately, the team discovered seven carbon-bearing molecules within the planet’s disk, including acetylene (C2H2) and benzene (C6H6). This carbon-rich chemistry is in stark contrast to the chemistry seen in the disk around the host star, where the researchers found water but no carbon. The difference between the two disks offers evidence for their rapid chemical evolution over only than 2 million years.

You can read the original paper here [pdf]. The exoplanet itself is thought to have a mass 14 to 24 times that of Jupiter, making it almost a brown dwarf star. The NASA makes a big deal claiming this disk is forming a moon around the exoplanet, but that is not what the paper finds. This research did not find any evidence of a new moon exoplanet.

Instead, the paper found an accretion disk rich in carbon molecules, a finding that is significant on its own. It also found that that the accretion disk around the central star, while lacking carbon molecules, appears rich in water.

In other words, this baby solar system is packed with the right material for eventually producing life. Moreover, in this system’s relatively short life, two million years, these materials were able to sort themselves out so that the star has one concentration of material while the exoplanet has another. Both facts suggest that organic chemistry is common in the universe, and can evolve fast.

That is the important discovery here.

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Two Japanese startups partner to fly the first private lunar sample return mission

9:53 am

Two Japanese startups, the lunar landing company Ispace and the orbital capsule startup ElevationSpace, have signed an agreement to develop the first private mission to bring samples back to Earth from the Moon.

Based on the agreement, Ispace and ElevationSpace will jointly pursue development to undertake a lunar return mission. Ispace has already demonstrated the technology to deploy a lander into lunar orbit through its two lunar missions operated in 2023 and 2025. The company is currently considering the development of an Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV), derived from its existing lunar lander development technology.

The collaboration aims to conduct a technology demonstration to verify the feasibility of missions utilizing an and the sample return re-entry capsule being developed by ElevationSpace, as well as to evaluate the overall system characteristics.

At the moment this project is only a PowerPoint proposal. Though Ispace has made two attempts to soft land an unmanned spacecraft on the Moon, neither was a success. It has three further contracts with NASA, ESA, and Japan’s space agency JAXA, but none has flown yet, and its orbital vehicle is only under development.

As for ElevationSpace, it has flown nothing yet as well. Its first demo satellite, designed to test re-entry and recovery, won’t fly until late next year, assuming its launch rocket, Isar’s new Spectrum, gets to orbit.

Nonetheless, this project illustrates the continuing shift to the private sector in space. The companies are doing this to demonstrate their capabilities in order to win contracts from both commercial and government customers.

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New study finds ice is better at dissolving iron than liquid water

9:34 am

In a result that could have a direct bearing on trying to understand the inexplicable geology of Mars, a new study has found that ice actually does a better job at releasing iron from mineral deposits than liquid water.

It was once believed that when iron-rich mineral deposits were locked in ice, the iron would stay put, but a new study from Sweden’s Umeå University shows that the ice itself is actually working better than permafrost melt to release the iron. The study showed that ice at -10 °C (14 °F) releases more iron from mineral deposits than liquid water at 4 °C (39.2 °F). “It may sound counterintuitive, but ice is not a passive frozen block,” says study co-author Jean-François Boily. “Freezing creates microscopic pockets of liquid water between ice crystals. These act like chemical reactors, where compounds become concentrated and extremely acidic. This means they can react with iron minerals even at temperatures as low as minus 30 degrees Celsius.”

The researchers also found that the seasonal freeze/thaw cycle helped this process, and that brackish fresh water did better in dissolving the iron than seawater.

The significance for Mars geology is that this suggests glacial ice in the alien Mars climate might be the catalyst for creating its meandering canyons that so much resemble features on Earth produced by liquid water. On Mars however no model yet has been convincingly successful in creating past conditions where liquid water could flow on the surface. Mars has either been is too cold or its atmosphere too thin to allow it.

This study suggests ice however could do the work. It also fits with other Martian data that suggests the same, that at the base of the Martian glaciers pockets of liquid water could exist that act to shape the canyons.

All of this is speculation on my part, but it seems that the planetary scientists who are studying Mars should take a close look at this research.

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Avio wins $47 million study contract to build reusable upper stage rocket

9:20 am

Avio's proposed reusable upper stage
Click for original.

The Italian rocket company Avio has won $47 million study contract from the European Space Agency (ESA) to begin design work on a reusable upper stage rocket.

The contract runs for two years, with a goal to “assess and prepare the requirements, the design and the technologies for both the ground and flight segments required for an upper stage demonstrator that in the future could return to Earth and be reused on another flight.”

In other words, Avio is not yet building this upper stage, but will use this money to work up a design. The Avio graphic to the right suggests the lower stage will be based on the first stage of Avio’s solid-fueled Vega-C rocket. The upper stage concept appears to resemble Starship, which suggests Avio will be aiming for a vertical landing, using the methane-fueled engines it is developing for its not-yet-launched Vega-E rocket.

This ESA contract once again shows that agency’s shift to the capitalism model. Rather than develop this idea in-house, as it has done so poorly in the past, ESA has asked a private company to do it, and own what it develops.

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SpaceX launches 28 Starlink satellites

7:49 pm

SpaceX this evening successfully placed another 28 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

The first stage, B1063, completed its 28th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific. (This booster had been listed as the first stage on a launch two days ago, but it turns out the booster on that flight was B1082, completing its 16th flight.) The present rankings for the most reflights of a rocket:

39 Discovery space shuttle
33 Atlantis space shuttle
30 Falcon 9 booster B1067
28 Columbia space shuttle
28 Falcon 9 booster B1071
28 Falcon 9 booster B1063
27 Falcon 9 booster B1069

Sources here and here.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

126 SpaceX
57 China
13 Russia
12 Rocket Lab

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 126 to 97. China has a launch scheduled for this evening, but nothing as yet has been published about its status as of this posting.

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