Strange unexplained polarization shifts in M87’s supermassive black hole

12:25 pm

The changing magnetic field of M87
Click for original image.

Using the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), astronomers have detected unexpected and so far unexplained polarization shifts in the supermassive black hole that resides at the center of the galaxy M87, located 55 million light years away.

That black hole is estimated to have a mass six billion times that of our Sun, and was the first ever imaged by EHT. By using observations made in 2017, 2018, and 2021, as shown in the images to the right, found its magnetic field changing in unexpected ways.

Between 2017 and 2021, the polarization pattern flipped direction. In 2017, the magnetic fields appeared to spiral one way; by 2018, they settled; and in 2021, they reversed, spiraling the opposite direction. Some of these apparent changes in the polarization’s rotational direction may be influenced by a combination of internal magnetic structure and external effects, such as a Faraday screen. The cumulative effects of how this polarization changes over time suggests an evolving, turbulent environment where magnetic fields play a vital role in governing how matter falls into the black hole and how energy is launched outward.

The changes were more puzzling in that the size of the black hole’s event horizon, the ring surrounding it, did not change. According to the scientists, this suggests “magnetized plasma swirling near the event horizon is far from static; it’s dynamic and complex, pushing our theoretical models to the limit.”

That the magnetic field flipped polarity however should not be surprising to scientists. Consider the same polarity flips we see in our own Sun every eleven years. It should be expected that the magnetic field around a super massive black hole would be equally variable, if not more so.

The problem is that there remains no understanding about why such changes happen. We know the magnetic field exists. We know it flips polarity. With the Sun we know it does so regularly every eleven years. Why it does so however remains unknown, though there are theories. With M87 the data is far less certain.

Tracking the changes at M87 however should help us build our knowledge base so that someday we might finally grasp those fundamentals.

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Isar outlines what caused the failure on the first launch of its Spectrum rocket

11:13 am

Isar's first launch attempt fails
Spectrum falling seconds after launch

According to officials of the German rocket startup Isar Aerospace, its Spectrum rocket failed during its first launch in March 2025 because of a loss of attitude control, which then caused the rocket to self-destruct.

Alexandre Dalloneau, vice president of mission and launch operations at Isar, said that the company had not properly characterized bending modes of the vehicle at liftoff. “The controllability has to be tuned in order to counter such behavior,” he said. That environment was not fully modeled and incorporated into the vehicle’s control system. “We were outside the environment that we expected, so that the controllability does not succeed.”

That loss of attitude control caused the vehicle to go outside the safety zone at the launch site. That, in turn, triggered the flight termination system on the rocket. He said the company has revised its modeling of vehicle modes at liftoff to correct the problem.

The company is now working towards a second launch from Norway’s Andoya spaceport, which it hopes to attempt either late this year or early next year. Afterward it hopes to launch eight-plus times a year, based on the demand it is presently seeing for its rocket.

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Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

Europe once again delays test flights of its Callisto 1st stage hopper

11:05 am

Callisto's basic design
Callisto’s basic design

First proposed in 2015 as Europe’s answer to SpaceX’s Falcon 9, the first test flights of the European Space Agency (ESA)’s Callisto grasshopper-type reusable test prototype, as shown on the right, has once again been delayed, now from 2026 to 2027.

On Friday, CNES published a call seeking a partner to provide mechanical operations and procedures support ahead of the Callisto flight-test campaign, including contributions to operations user manuals, drafting mechanical operation procedures, and conducting detailed studies of mechanical interfaces between the vehicle and the ground segment. In the preamble to the scope of work, the notice states that the campaign will be carried out from the Guiana Space Centre in French Guiana in 2027. It will include an integration phase followed by eight test flights and two demonstration flights, all to be completed over a period of eight months.

The project, in which Japan’s space agency JAXA is participating, had an initial budget of $100 million, and originally planned to do its first hops in 2020. Instead, ESA spent a dozen years making powerpoint presentations, while SpaceX flew hundreds of operational flights with its Falcon 9, for profit.

Worse, this program is not attached to any rocket. It is a dead end. ESA and JAXA might get some useful engineering data from it, but it will belong to no one, and it is unclear anyone will care. At this moment it appears several private companies in Europe will have flown their own new rockets before Callisto even gets off the ground, and the data from those real rocket launches will be much more useful to them down the road.

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Lucy scientists name the features on asteroid Donaldjohanson

10:16 am

The named features on Donaldjohanson
Click for original.

The science team for the asteroid probe Lucy have now released their names for the features they discovered on the main belt asteroid Donaldjohanson when the spacecraft flew past in April 2025.

The smaller lobe is called Afar Lobus, after the Ethiopian region where Lucy and other hominin fossils were found. The larger lobe is named Olduvai Lobus, after the Tanzanian river gorge that has also yielded many important hominin discoveries.

The asteroid’s neck, Windover Collum, which joins those two lobes, is named after the Windover Archeological Site near Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida — where NASA’s Lucy mission launched in 2021. Human remains and artifacts recovered from that site revolutionized our understanding of the people who lived in Florida around 7,300 years ago.

Two smooth areas on the asteroid’s neck are named Hadar Regio, marking the specific site of Johanson’s discovery of the Lucy fossil, and Minatogawa Regio, after the location where the oldest known hominins in Japan were found. Select boulders and craters on Donaldjohanson are named after notable fossils ranging from pre-Homo sapiens hominins to ancient modern humans.

These names were “approved” by the International Astronautical Union (IAU), which claims the authority over the naming of every rock, boulder, pebble in space. The truth is, however, that future spacefarers are going to accept these names no matter what the IAU had said, simply because these scientists did the first exploration of this asteroid. They get to choose, not the IAU.

The spacecraft is now on its long coast out of the main belt and on to the orbit of Jupiter, where it will make fly-bys of ten different asteroids.

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Conscious Choice cover

Now available in hardback and paperback as well as ebook!

From the press release: In this ground-breaking new history of early America, historian Robert Zimmerman not only exposes the lie behind The New York Times 1619 Project that falsely claims slavery is central to the history of the United States, he also provides profound lessons about the nature of human societies, lessons important for Americans today as well as for all future settlers on Mars and elsewhere in space.

 
Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space, is a riveting page-turning story that documents how slavery slowly became pervasive in the southern British colonies of North America, colonies founded by a people and culture that not only did not allow slavery but in every way were hostile to the practice.  
Conscious Choice does more however. In telling the tragic history of the Virginia colony and the rise of slavery there, Zimmerman lays out the proper path for creating healthy societies in places like the Moon and Mars.

 

“Zimmerman’s ground-breaking history provides every future generation the basic framework for establishing new societies on other worlds. We would be wise to heed what he says.” —Robert Zubrin, founder of the Mars Society.

 

All editions are available at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and all book vendors, with the ebook priced at $5.99 before discount. All editions can also be purchased direct from the ebook publisher, ebookit, in which case you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.

 

Autographed printed copies are also available at discount directly from the author (hardback $29.95; paperback $14.95; Shipping cost for either: $6.00). Just send an email to zimmerman @ nasw dot org.

Scientists at JPL now predict a major long term uptick in sunspot activity

9:59 am

The solar science community's failed predictions
The many failed recent predictions of the
solar science community

The uncertainty of science: According to a NASA press release today, scientists at JPL now predict that the Sun will see a major increase in sunspot activity in the coming decades, ending the relatively quiet period seen in the two past solar maximums.

In their paper, the scientists say they come to this conclusion due to changes seen in solar wind activity since 2008. From their abstract:

Over the course of two decades until 2008, the solar wind became significantly weaker with a constant declining trend in many important solar wind parameters, and solar cycle 24 being the weakest on record since the start of the space age. Here we show that since 2008, the Sun has reversed this long-term weakening trend with a steady increase in various solar wind proton parameters observed at 1 au. Furthermore, comparison of values from a fitted trend to data between 2008 and 2025 show the following increases in solar wind proton parameters: speed (~6%), density (~26%), temperature (~29%), thermal pressure (~45%), mass flux (~27%), momentum flux or dynamic pressure (~34%), energy flux (~40%), interplanetary magnetic field magnitude (~31%), and the radial component of the magnetic field (~33%).

This has important implications on long-term solar trends, implying that the exceptional weakness of solar cycle 24 was most likely a recent outlier and that the Sun is not entering a modern era Maunder/Dalton-like minimum phase in its solar variation, but is instead recovering from a ~20 yr decline.

This analysis and conclusion is most intriguing, but we must also remember that every prediction by the solar science community in the past two decades has turned out to be wrong, as illustrated by the graph above. This prediction is just like all those others, in that it is based not on any fundamental understanding of why these changes in the solar wind are occurring, but simply extrapolating this past behavior into the future, a very unreliable method of prediction.

These scientists might be correct, but I would not bet any money on it.

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China launches “test satellite for satellite internet technology”

9:25 am

China today successfully launched a satellite for testing “satellite internet technology”, its Long March 2C rocket lifting off from its Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China.

Its state-run press provided no other information about the satellite. Nor did it provide any information about where the rocket’s lower stages — which use toxic hypergolic fuels — crashed inside China.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

118 SpaceX
54 China
13 Russia
12 Rocket Lab

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 118 to 93.

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Leaving Earth cover

Leaving Earth: Space Stations, Rival Superpowers, and the Quest for Interplanetary Travel, can be purchased as an ebook everywhere for only $3.99 (before discount) at amazon, Barnes & Noble, all ebook vendors, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit.

If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big oppressive tech companies and I get a bigger cut much sooner.

 

Winner of the 2003 Eugene M. Emme Award of the American Astronautical Society.

 
"Leaving Earth is one of the best and certainly the most comprehensive summary of our drive into space that I have ever read. It will be invaluable to future scholars because it will tell them how the next chapter of human history opened." -- Arthur C. Clarke

The causes behind the launch failure of Firefly’s Alpha rocket in April

9:20 am

In late August the FAA and Firefly completed the investigation into the launch failure of Firefly’s Alpha rocket in April, clearing the way for the company to resume launches.

At the time however this approval was reported here merely as a quick link on X. The company however also published its conclusions at that time which explained the cause of the failure. For completeness I post that now, describing what happened just after the first stage separated from the second stage.

Alpha’s first stage then experienced a rupture milliseconds after stage separation. The pressure wave hit Alpha’s second stage, leading to the loss of the engine’s nozzle extension and substantially reducing stage two thrust. The second stage was able to recover attitude control and continued to ascend to an altitude of 320 km until running out of propellant. The vehicle was three seconds short of achieving orbital velocity and five seconds short of the target payload deployment orbit.

The ground-based video, onboard telemetry, post-flight empirical testing and Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis corroborated excessive heat from Plume Induced Flow Separation as the most probable root cause of the mishap. Alpha Flight 6 flew a higher angle of attack than prior missions. Plume-induced flow separation intensified heat on the leeward side reducing structural margins, causing the booster to rupture from stage separation induced loads.

Fortunately, the corrective actions are straight forward: increase thermal protection system thickness on Stage 1 and reduce angle of attack during key phases of the flight. Corrective actions have already been implemented.

The company expects to resume flights in the very near future, probably before the end of 2025.

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Spanish rocket startup PLD completes test of prototype first stage

9:07 am

The Spanish rocket startup PLD has successfully conducted a short “burst test” of a full scale prototype of the first stage of its proposed Miura-5 rocket as it prepares for a first launch.

The test subjected the stage to pressures beyond its intended operating limits to determine the point of structural failure. According to the PLD Space update, the test validated the structural performance of the tank under cryogenic temperatures and extreme pressure conditions. The company will now proceed with a fully integrated qualification model of the stage that includes all the elements required for flight.

The company had hoped to launch the rocket for the first time from its French Guiana launchpad before the end of this year, but that schedule has slipped to 2026. At the same time, it clearly is making real progress, having also tested the engines of the rocket’s second stage in August.

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Court throws out environmental lawsuit against SpaceX, FAA, and Starship/Superheavy

8:45 am

The federal district court judge for the District of Columbia yesterday dismissed entirely the environmental lawsuit that had been filed against SpaceX and the FAA by anti-Musk activists following the first orbital test launch of Starship/Superheavy.

More details here. The lawsuit itself [pdf] was filed in 2023, claiming that the FAA’s environmental assessment of SpaceX’s activities at Boca Chica would do no harm to the environment were wrong.

SpaceX activities authorized in the FONSI/ROD [the environmental reassessment issued last year] have and will adversely affect the surrounding wildlife habitat and communities. In addition to harm from construction activities and increased vehicle traffic, rocket launches result in intense heat, noise, and light pollution. Furthermore, the rocket launches and testing result in explosions which spread debris across surrounding habitat and cause brush/forest fires — including one that recently burned 68 acres of adjacent National Wildlife Refuge. The FAA calls these explosions “anomalies,” but in fact they occur frequently, with at least 8 over the past 5 years. FAA acknowledged that many more such “anomalies” are expected over the next 5 years. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has found that prior SpaceX rocket explosions harmed protected wildlife and designated habitat in violation of the Endangered Species Act (ESA).

At the time I noted this:

In other words, rockets and launch sites should never be placed inside wildlife refuges, because such activity is detrimental to wildlife.

A more false statement cannot be made. Under this conclusion the launch facilities at Cape Canaveral, which have been operating in the middle of a wildlife refuge now for more than six decades, should be shut down immediately. All the wildlife there must certainly be dead!

We have almost three-quarters of a century of empirical data in both Florida and California that spaceports are clearly beneficial to wildlife, because they actually create the refuge by reserving large areas where development cannot occur. This court decision merely confirms reality, something it appears increasingly the left doesn’t have much grasp of.

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The central star-forming cauldron of M82, the most well known star-forming galaxy

12:40 pm

The central star-forming region of M82
Click for original. For original of inset go here.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and annotated to post here, was released today by the Hubble Science team. It shows the central star-forming core of the galaxy M82, only about 12 million light years away and long known as a “peculiar” galaxy by earlier research from the 20th century. For this reason I used the 1963 optical image taken by the 200-inch Hale Telescope at Palomar in California as the inset, showing the entire galaxy. At the time the data only suggested some major energetic events were occurring in the galaxy’s core, as indicated by what looked like filaments shooting out from that core at right angles to the plane of the galaxy.

Data since then, from Hubble and Webb and other space telescopes, have revealed that this galaxy, which some have nicknamed the “Cigar Galaxy”, is forming stars at a prolific rate.

Forming stars 10 times faster than the Milky Way, the Cigar Galaxy is what astronomers call a starburst galaxy. The intense starburst period that grips this galaxy has given rise to super star clusters in the galaxy’s heart. Each of these super star clusters contains hundreds of thousands of stars and is more luminous than a typical star cluster.

The red indicates the dust that permeates the galaxy. The blue comes from the radiation emitted from the clusters near the center, illuminating and ionizing that dust.

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Bubbling lava frozen in a Martian crater

11:24 am

Bubbling lava frozen in a Martian crater
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on June 23, 2025 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). This one-mile-wide unnamed crater was a featured image last week by the science team. As noted in the caption, written by Chris Okubo of the U.S. Geological Survey:

This area was covered by a large flood of lava, which we see as the generally flat areas surrounding the crater. As the lava flowed across, some of it flowed into this crater through a low spot along the crater rim.

Once in the crater, the lava heated ground water or ground ice in the floor, causing the water to boil and turn into steam. This steam then exploded through the overlying lava and created small, ring-shaped formations. These are called ”rootless cones,” and they record the presence of ground water or ground ice in the crater floor at the time of the lava eruptions.

In other words, when this crater was flooded with hot lava, it was filled with ice or water. That fact is significant because of the crater’s location, as shown in the overview map below.
» Read more

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