Update on what SpaceX learned about Starship’s tiles during the 10th test flight

11:27 am

Superheavy after its flight safely captured at Boca Chica
Superheavy after the October 2024 flight,
safely captured during the very first attempt

Link here. The update comes from a presentation given this week by Bill Gerstenmaier, SpaceX’s executive in charge of build and flight reliability, at the American Astronautical Society’s Glenn Space Technology Symposium in Cleveland.

Lots of new details. First, almost no tiles fell off during this flight. More significant, they found that the use of metal tiles won’t work. They tested three, and found that “The metal tiles… didn’t work so well.”

Gestenmaier also outlined how the flight provided the necessary data for sealing the gaps between the tiles better.

Gerstenmaier pointed to a patch of white near the top of Starship’s heat shield. This, he said, was caused by heat seeping between gaps in the tiles and eroding the underlying material, a thermal barrier derived from the heat shield on SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft. Technicians also intentionally removed some tiles near Starship’s nose to test the vehicle’s response.

“It’s essentially a white material that sits on Dragon and it ablates away, and when it ablates, it creates this white residue,” Gerstenmaier said. “So, what that’s showing us is that we’re having heat essentially get into that region between the tiles, go underneath the tiles, and this ablative structure is then ablating underneath. So, we learned that we need to seal the tiles.”

They hope to do the 11th test flight in October, repeating the same suborbital configuration of previous flights, using the same version 2 of Starship. The plan will then be to follow up with a first suborbital flight of version 3 in 2026, followed quickly by orbital flights. During one of those orbital flights they will also try to do a chopstick catch of Starship. They also hope to do the first refueling tests next year.

All in all, it appears the test program is proceeding as hoped, and is about to accelerate significantly.

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NASA promotes the non-discovery of life on Mars by Perseverance

11:09 am

It's all a game of Kibuki theater
It’s all a game!

In what can only be called a kabuki theater stunt, NASA today held a press conference and issued a press release promoting what is essentially the non-discovery of life on Mars by the science team operating the rover Perseverance.

Agency officials, led by acting NASA administrator Sean Duffy, proudly claimed the discovery justified the oft-stated goal of Perseverance, to find life on Mars.

“This finding by Perseverance, launched under President Trump in his first term, is the closest we have ever come to discovering life on Mars. The identification of a potential biosignature on the Red Planet is a groundbreaking discovery, and one that will advance our understanding of Mars,” said acting NASA Administrator Sean Duffy.

This is all garbage. First, Perseverance’s real objective has never been to find life on Mars. It is there to study the planet’s geology. If it should happen to detect a biosignature that would be great, but doing so has always been highly unlikely.

Second, the discovery that Duffy touts is itself quite underwhelming. The key quote from the press release that immediately precedes Duffy’s claim is very telling:

A potential biosignature is a substance or structure that might have a biological origin but requires more data or further study before a conclusion can be reached about the absence or presence of life.

Furthermore, the biosignature that Duffy touts is actually not really a biosignature. They found “a distinct pattern of minerals” that might be sometimes be related to life processes, but not always.

The combination of these minerals, which appear to have formed by electron-transfer reactions between the sediment and organic matter, is a potential fingerprint for microbial life, which would use these reactions to produce energy for growth. The minerals also can be generated abiotically, or without the presence of life. [emphasis mine]

In other words, the data is very uncertain. It certainly doesn’t merit the loud push NASA and Duffy is giving it.

I suspect this push is the result of NASA’s fundamental lie about Perseverance’s so-called search for life, a lie that can never really be fulfilled. It is also related to hiding Perseverance’s limited capabilities. For example, Curiosity has a small lab allowing scientists to analyze samples in great detail. If Curiosity came across a real biosignature, it would be able to identify it.

Perseverance lacks this ability, because in its stead it has equipment for preserving core samples for later pick-up. All it really was designed to do was to gather those core samples. It can’t really do the same kind of ground analysis as Curiosity.

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Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

Scientists detect methane gas on the dwarf planet Makemake orbiting the Sun beyond Neptune

10:05 am

Makemake, as seen by Hubble in 2016
Makemake and the discovery of its small moon,
as seen by Hubble in 2016. Click for original image.

Using the Webb Space Telescope, scientists have identified the spectroscopic signal of methane gas on the dwarf planet Makemake that orbits the Sun in the Kuiper belt, suggesting this planet like Pluto might have an intermittent atmosphere.

At about 890 miles (1,430 km) in diameter and two-thirds the size of Pluto, Makemake has long been a source of scientific intrigue. Stellar occultations suggested that it lacked a substantial global atmosphere, though a thin one could not be ruled out. Meanwhile, infrared data of Makemake — including JWST measurements — hinted at puzzling thermal anomalies and unusual characteristics of its methane ice, which raised the possibility of localized hot spots across its surface and potential outgassing.

…“This discovery raises the possibility that Makemake has a very tenuous atmosphere sustained by methane sublimation,” said Dr. Emmanuel Lellouch of the Paris Observatory, another co-author of the study. “Our best models point to a gas temperature around 40 Kelvin (-233 degrees Celsius) and a surface pressure of only about 10 picobars — that is, 100 billion times below Earth’s atmospheric pressure, and a million times more tenuous than Pluto’s. If this scenario is confirmed, Makemake would join the small handful of outer solar system bodies where surface–atmosphere exchanges are still active today.”

It is also possible that the methane gas detected could be coming from volcanic plumes, not unlike the plumes found on the Saturn moon Enceladus.

These results prove once again that even though planets like Pluto and Makemake sit very far from the Sun and thus get little energy from it, they can still have active geological processes. Of all the discoveries produced by New Horizons when it flew past Pluto in 2015, this discovery was the most significant.

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Croatian startup moves up the launch date for two subscale returnable capsules

9:44 am

The Croatian startup Genesis Space Flight Laboratories (Genesis SFL) has now accelerated the development of its orbital returnable capsule for manufacturing in space, moving up the launch date for its first two subscale demonstrator capsules from 2027 to 2026.

Initially planned for 2027, the missions were moved forward after Genesis SFL announced on 9 September that it had secured earlier slots with an as-yet-undisclosed launch provider.

Speaking to European Spaceflight, Genesis SFL CEO Bence Mátyás explained that the company’s GEN-1 and GEN-2 demonstrators will likely be the smallest reentry capsules ever flown, comparable in size to picosatellites. Despite their diminutive size, the capsules will be capable of remaining in orbit for approximately six months before performing reentry procedures, a capability made possible by the use of a host satellite [essentially the service module] also under development by the company. Once on a reentry trajectory, the capsule will separate from its host satellite and deploy a mini-parachute and antenna to enable recovery following a splashdown.

If these demonstrators succeed, the company plans to scale up later GEN capsules step-by-step, eventually matching and even exceeding those of companies like Varda.

The returnable capsule industry appears at the moment to be bursting with new companies. In the U.S. we have Varda, Inversion Space, Sierra Space, and even SpaceX using Starship. In Europe — in addition to Genesis in Croatia, we have The Exploration Company in France, Atmos in Germany, PLD in Spain, and Space Cargo in Luxembourg. And I am certain there are others that I am missing.

Very clearly the investment community sees big profits in using orbital capsules to manufacture products for later sale on Earth.

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Conscious Choice cover

Now available in hardback and paperback as well as ebook!

From the press release: In this ground-breaking new history of early America, historian Robert Zimmerman not only exposes the lie behind The New York Times 1619 Project that falsely claims slavery is central to the history of the United States, he also provides profound lessons about the nature of human societies, lessons important for Americans today as well as for all future settlers on Mars and elsewhere in space.

 
Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space, is a riveting page-turning story that documents how slavery slowly became pervasive in the southern British colonies of North America, colonies founded by a people and culture that not only did not allow slavery but in every way were hostile to the practice.  
Conscious Choice does more however. In telling the tragic history of the Virginia colony and the rise of slavery there, Zimmerman lays out the proper path for creating healthy societies in places like the Moon and Mars.

 

“Zimmerman’s ground-breaking history provides every future generation the basic framework for establishing new societies on other worlds. We would be wise to heed what he says.” —Robert Zubrin, founder of the Mars Society.

 

All editions are available at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and all book vendors, with the ebook priced at $5.99 before discount. All editions can also be purchased direct from the ebook publisher, ebookit, in which case you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.

 

Autographed printed copies are also available at discount directly from the author (hardback $29.95; paperback $14.95; Shipping cost for either: $6.00). Just send an email to zimmerman @ nasw dot org.

Rather than streamline red tape, a UK government committee proposes it should fund its space industry directly

9:28 am

Proposed spaceports surrounding Norwegian Sea
Proposed spaceports surrounding Norwegian Sea

In a move that will do nothing to solve the red tape that has stymied the spaceports in Scotland as well as the launch industry in the United Kingdom, a Scottish government committee has concluded that the solution is for the UK government to become a direct investor in its space industry, increasing funding to both its spaceports and any launch companies that wish to use them.

The Scottish Affairs Committee heard from a number of experts and figures involved in the space industry. Professor Malcolm Macdonald, of Strathclyde University, said the UK had not always sustained its “first-mover” advantage in the space launch sector.

The report’s conclusion stated: “It is clear that the UK is falling behind its European counterparts in terms of public investment, leaving Scottish spaceports at a competitive disadvantage in a fast-moving global market. Without sustained backing from the Government – particularly in infrastructure – Scotland risks missing a generational opportunity to lead in space launch. To fully realise this potential, the UK Government needs to go further and faster.”

The MPs called for sustained Government investment in infrastructure.

The report also noted that despite a half-decade head start in establishing its spaceports in Scotland, the Andoya spaceport in Norway is now winning the race to become Europe’s prime spaceport.

Talk about not seeing the forest for the trees. The reason the UK’s spaceports have fallen behind is because its regulatory framework is impossible to navigate, taking years to get any approvals. But rather than fix this, this committee proposes throwing taxpayer money at the problem.

My prediction: It won’t work. Outside rocket companies will continue to move away from the UK, while any that get government investment to stay will find it difficult to get business, because it will still be impossible to get launch licenses when needed.

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India’s government finalizes deal to transfer operation of its SSLV rocket to a private company

9:13 am

India’s government and its various space agencies yesterday finalized its deal with the Indian company Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) to take over the manufacture and operation of its government-designed SSLV rocket (Small Satellite Launch Vehicle) for the next decade.

Under the technology transfer contract that HAL signed with ISRO, Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe) and NewSpace India Limited (NSIL), the aviation major will absorb the technology in the first two years, which will be followed by a 10-year production phase. The agreement grants HAL a non-exclusive, non-transferable license to the SSLV technology, which includes comprehensive design, manufacturing, quality control, integration, launch operations, and post-flight analysis documentation, as well as training and support. HAL will be responsible for the mass production of SSLV to meet Indian and global demands,” the company says in a statement.

Initially the Modi government had implied the transfer would involve ownership of the rocket by the private company, so that it could market the rocket for profit. The actual deal does not do this. Instead, it gives HAL the responsibility to manufacture and operate the rocket, but it appears sales and ownership will still be under the control of India’s space agency ISRO. If this is correct, the deal accomplishes less than nothing, and in fact simply adds another player in the game, making the SSLV rocket less competitive in the international market.

Then again, the Modi government might see this deal as just a first step in the transition from a government-run space program to a competitive independent space industry. It needs to wrest control from ISRO, and this can’t be done politically in one fell swoop.

To me however this deal for HAL is a bad one. It now has the responsibility for making and launching the rocket, but none of the benefits.

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Leaving Earth cover

Leaving Earth: Space Stations, Rival Superpowers, and the Quest for Interplanetary Travel, can be purchased as an ebook everywhere for only $3.99 (before discount) at amazon, Barnes & Noble, all ebook vendors, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit.

If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big oppressive tech companies and I get a bigger cut much sooner.

 

Winner of the 2003 Eugene M. Emme Award of the American Astronautical Society.

 
"Leaving Earth is one of the best and certainly the most comprehensive summary of our drive into space that I have ever read. It will be invaluable to future scholars because it will tell them how the next chapter of human history opened." -- Arthur C. Clarke

South Korea military begins project to develop a methane-fueled rocket engine

8:01 am

The South Korean defense department has awarded a consortium of Korean aerospace companies a contract to develop a methane-fueled engine that can be used in reusable rockets.

According to the space industry, a consortium led by Hyundai Rotem and Korean Air was selected on the 9th as the preferred negotiator for a 35-ton methane engine technology development project overseen by the Agency for Defense Development (ADD) under the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA). A formal agreement will be signed in November, initiating full-scale research and development (R&D). The project, budgeted at approximately 49.1 billion Korean won [$35 million], will run until 2030.

It appears there has been a turf war between the military and South Korea’s newly formed space agency, KASA. Originally KASA had planned to develop this engine, but apparently the military’s proposal won out. KASA now says it will collaborate with the ADD, but the project’s budget now goes to the military.

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New study of 300,000 people in Italy proves COVID jab caused gigantic increase in cancer cases

1:23 pm

Figure 1 from the study
Figure 1 from the study. Click for original. Anything
to the right of the vertical line indicates an increase
cancer diagnoses.

As noted bluntly by Health & Human Services secretary Robert Kennedy, Jr. at a Senate hearing last week, “We were lied to about everything:” A new study of the entire population 11 years and older of a single province in Italy, 300,000 people in total, has now proven that the mRNA COVID jab results in a terrifying and skyrocketing increase in the numbers of cancer cases.

The researchers found that “vaccinated” individuals had far higher hospitalization rates for new cancer diagnoses than the unvaccinated, particularly for breast, bladder, and colorectal cancers. Hospitalizations for cancer were 35% higher in the vaccinated (HR 1.23). The risk spike was strongest among men and those with no prior COVID infection.

  • Overall Cancer Risk: +23% after just one dose
  • Breast Cancer: +54% increased risk
  • Bladder Cancer: +62% increased risk
  • Colorectal Cancer: +35% increased risk

The researchers warn that the danger persisted and continued increasing after multiple doses.

In other words, the entire world is now facing a possibly major increase in cancer cases and a significant lowering of life expectancy, because it panicked in 2020 over a respiratory virus comparable to the flu. Those few voices (such as mine) that tried to resist that panic and call for a reasoned response were routinely blacklisted and silenced, and the result is now an impending disaster, on top of the catastrophes we have already suffered due to lockdowns, social distancing, and mask and jab mandates.

Kennedy summed up this situation quite well at that Senate hearing on September, 4, 2025. He was attacked ruthlessly over and over again by Democratic Party senators, only to hit them back twice as hard, noting how they are all in the pay of the pharmaceutical companies that make the jab, bribes totaling millions. He started however with this stark condemnation:
» Read more

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China proposes its own mission to Apophis

9:50 am

Apophis' path past the Earth in 2029
A cartoon (not to scale) showing Apophis’s
path in 2029

Though it is not clear the Chinese government has approved the mission, Chinese scientists have now proposed a mission to to rendezvous with the potentially dangerous asteroid Apophis when it does its next close fly-by of the Earth in April 2029.

The mission would consist of two small satellites sent into a halo orbit around Sun-Earth Lagrange point 1 to await the approach of Apophis and transfer into a flyby orbit so as to meet the asteroid shortly after its close encounter with the Earth. The asteroid is due to pass within the geosynchronous orbit belt on Friday, April 13, 2029.

The Apophis mission would be added to a more ambitious larger asteroid mission, also not yet approved, dubbed CROWN, that would launch six spacecraft into “Venus-like, heliocentric orbits” where they would search and track Near-Earth Asteroids that are hard to spot because they are closer to the Sun than Earth.

China recently unveiled a blueprint to develop what it calls a “near-Earth asteroid defense system.” It appears the scientists for the project above are lobbying to get picked up as part of that blueprint. I should add that they first pushed this project in June, and three months later it still remains unfunded.

At present, there are many flying, planned, and proposed missions to reach Apophis during its 2029 fly-by. Osiris-Apex is on its way, having been repurposed after doing its sample return mission to Bennu. Europe is currently building its Ramses probe, which will also include two cubesats. Though other probes have been proposed, none have yet been approved.

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NASA inspector general: Dragonfly mission is vastly overbudget and behind schedule

9:24 am

Artist rendering of Dragonfly soaring over Titan's surface
Artist rendering of Dragonfly soaring
over Titan’s surface

According to a new NASA inspector general report issued today, NASA’s Dragonfly mission to Titan is now billions overbudget and is likely not be ready to launch in 2028.

You can download the report here [pdf]. From its executive summary:

Dragonfly was selected under a New Frontiers Announcement of Opportunity with a $850 million cost cap on Principal Investigator-Managed Mission Costs, which primarily includes development costs but excludes launch vehicle and post-launch operations costs. However, by April 2024, those costs had grown to $2.6 billion and the launch delayed by more than 2 years, from April 2026 to July 2028. The cost increase and schedule delay were largely the result of NASA directing APL to conduct four replans between June 2019 and July 2023 early in Dragonfly’s development. Justifications for these replans included the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain issues, changes to accommodate a heavy-lift launch vehicle, projected funding challenges, and inflation.

The report now estimates the budget will eventually rise above $3 billion, cost that is eating away at NASA’s entire planetary budget, making other missions impossible. The project itself is far from ready, with multiple unfinished issues that make its present launch target of 2028 very unlikely.
» Read more

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