December 31, 2024 Quick space links

3:20 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

Before we get to the links, I think it is time to send a hearty Happy New Year to all my readers. Thank you again for making 2024 the best year so far. And best of all, next year should even be better!

  • SpaceX touts the completion of its fifth manned Dragon capsule
    The tweet says this will be the last manned Dragon capsule, but Jay suspects that means the “last built in California.” He thinks future capsules will be built in Florida, the work driven from California due to its almost communist government. I’m not so sure. SpaceX remember is hoping Starship will replace the capsules in the future. Why build more in that case?
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A strange dune in the high southern latitudes of Mars

2:56 pm

A strange dune in the high latitudes of Mars
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on October 24, 2024 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). I have also rotated the image so that north is to the top.

The scientists label this a “dune with seasonally persistent light-toned features.” As the location is in the high southern latitudes, only about 800 miles from the south pole, light-toned features should vary by seasons, as such features usually signal the coming and going of frost, whether it be water ice or dry ice. In this case however the light tones remain from season to season, which suggests the lighter colors are intrinsic to the ground and possibly signal some interesting geology or mineralogy.

The color strip down the center of the dune is an effort to decipher this question. According to the explanation about the colors [pdf] provided by the science team, the orange and light green probably indicates fine dust, while the greenish area along the ridge’s rim as well as its eastern slope suggests frost. Thus, based on the superficial information available to the public, the colors tell us little.
» Read more

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Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

 

The print edition can be purchased at Amazon, any other book seller, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

Italian government awards former Ukrainian startup a $1.14 million development loan

10:07 am

A former Ukrainian startup, Kurs Orbital, has won a $1.14 million loan from Italy’s National Agency for Investment Attraction and Business Development (Invitalia) in order to build and sell its module providing rendezvous and docking capabilities for satellites.

Kurs Orbital was founded in 2021 by the former director of Ukraine’s space agency, Volodymyr Usov. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the company relocated to Turin, Italy. The company is currently developing its ARCap system, a rendezvous and proximity operations module that can be integrated with a wide range of vehicles, including satellites, orbital transfer vehicles, and even cargo or crew spacecraft. Possible applications for the technology include satellite life extension missions, in-orbit servicing, and space debris removal.

On 30 December, the company announced that it had secured a €1.1 million soft loan from Italy’s National Agency for Investment Attraction and Business Development (Invitalia). A soft loan provides the borrower with more favourable terms than traditional lenders typically offer. The loan was awarded through the agency’s Smart&Start programme, which focuses on supporting the growth of innovative startups by providing financing of between €100,000 and €1.5 million.

The Kurs rendezvous and docking system was first developed in the Ukraine for the Soviet-era space stations. When the Soviet Union broke up it continued to sell them to Roscosmos, but over time the Putin government increasingly worked to block these deals as it tried (and generally failed) to develop the capabilities within Russia. The Ukrainian companies then began marketing their products, with some success, in the west. Following Russia’s 2022 invasion of the Ukraine those companies have either died, or done what Kurs Orbital did, move to the west.

While this story might resemble the actions of the Chinese government as described in my previous post, there is one very fundamental difference. In Italy the law protects the property rights of this company. The Italian government might provide it loans and assistance, like the Chinese, but it does not have the power or right to take it over, at its whim, as the Chinese communists can.

The story also illustrates the foolishness of Russia’s power-hungry policies. It not only has wasted its youth and industry on a useless war, it has driven away companies and technology that formerly gave it capabilities it now lacks.

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Chinese pseudo-company gets major cash influx for its Starlink copycat constellation

9:53 am

The Chinese pseudo-company Genesat, which is making the satellites for the 14,000 Starlink-type satellite constellation being developed by the Chinese pseudo-company SpaceSail, has been awarded $137 million in cash from a variety of Chinese sources, most of which are government agencies focused on encouraging development by these pseudo-companies.

Superficially everything about these companies appears real. They compete for contracts and investment capital, and can only function if they make a profit. They also compete with other similar Chinese pseudo-companies. The reality however is that they only exist because the Chinese government wants them to. For example, Genesat was formed by a partnership of SpaceSail and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (which is entirely government-run). And SpaceSail was formed earlier with support of both the national and local Shanghai governments. For example, consider today’s story:

Shanghai Gesi Aerospace Technology, also known as Genesat, announced the more than 1 billion yuan (approximately $137 million) funding round Dec. 30. The main investors include China’s National Manufacturing Transformation and Upgrading Fund, China Development Bank Science and Technology Innovation, Guosheng Capital, SIMIC Capital and Shanghai FTZ Fund.

The first two backers are both government agencies created to funnel government cash to these pseudo-companies.

Overall this approach by the communist Chinese government has worked remarkably well. It has created an robust space industry within a competitive and innovative atmosphere. That industry only exists however as long as the present policies of the Chinese government exist. If there is a major change in leadership it all could vanish in a moment, as there are no property rights in China. A new government could do as Putin did in Russia, consolidate all these pseudo-companies into a central government-run agencies in order to more closely control them.

For the present however China’s pseudo-capitalist approach means it will be a major player in space in the coming years. That success might even lead to a positive change in government, throwing the communists out of power eventually. It is not only demonstrating the advantages of freedom and competition over a top-down command economy, it is developing a class of people doing it. They might eventually have enough wealth and power to take over the government and changes things for real.

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Conscious Choice cover

Now available in hardback and paperback as well as ebook!

 

From the press release: In this ground-breaking new history of early America, historian Robert Zimmerman not only exposes the lie behind The New York Times 1619 Project that falsely claims slavery is central to the history of the United States, he also provides profound lessons about the nature of human societies, lessons important for Americans today as well as for all future settlers on Mars and elsewhere in space.

 
Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space, is a riveting page-turning story that documents how slavery slowly became pervasive in the southern British colonies of North America, colonies founded by a people and culture that not only did not allow slavery but in every way were hostile to the practice.  
Conscious Choice does more however. In telling the tragic history of the Virginia colony and the rise of slavery there, Zimmerman lays out the proper path for creating healthy societies in places like the Moon and Mars.

 

“Zimmerman’s ground-breaking history provides every future generation the basic framework for establishing new societies on other worlds. We would be wise to heed what he says.” —Robert Zubrin, founder of the Mars Society.

 

All editions are available at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and all book vendors, with the ebook priced at $5.99 before discount. All editions can also be purchased direct from the ebook publisher, ebookit, in which case you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.

 

Autographed printed copies are also available at discount directly from the author (hardback $29.95; paperback $14.95; Shipping cost for either: $6.00). Just send an email to zimmerman @ nasw dot org.

SpaceX launches another set of Starlink satellites

10:48 pm

SpaceX tonight completed its last launch of 2024, successfully placing 21 Starlink satellites into orbit, including 13 with direct-to-cell capabilities, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Kennedy in Florida.

The first stage completed its sixteenth flight, landing successfully on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

Though there is always a chance that China will fly one more unannounced mission in the next day, it looks like the numbers below will be the final totals in the leader board for the 2024 launch race:

137 SpaceX
65 China
17 Russia
14 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 157 to 98, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including American companies, 137 to 118.

My full annual global launch report, showing the full set of launches in 2024, will be posted later this week.

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Leaving Earth cover

Leaving Earth: Space Stations, Rival Superpowers, and the Quest for Interplanetary Travel, can be purchased as an ebook everywhere for only $3.99 (before discount) at amazon, Barnes & Noble, all ebook vendors, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit.

 

If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big oppressive tech companies and I get a bigger cut much sooner.

 

Winner of the 2003 Eugene M. Emme Award of the American Astronautical Society.

 
"Leaving Earth is one of the best and certainly the most comprehensive summary of our drive into space that I have ever read. It will be invaluable to future scholars because it will tell them how the next chapter of human history opened." -- Arthur C. Clarke

India gets nine bids involving 30 companies on proposal to build satellite constellation

4:01 pm

Capitalism in space: India’s space agency in charge of promoting commercial space, In-Space, has received nine different bids involving 30 Indian companies on its proposal that an Earth observation satellite constellation be built by a private company, not by the country’s space agency ISRO.

The regulator had sought “expressions of interest” (EoI) in July to build home-grown satellite constellations as part of a broader strategy to monetize the sector and ensure data sovereignty.

India is doubling down on its small satellite and data services market to carve out a leading role in the global commercialization of space. The market for such services, increasingly key for industries ranging from telecoms to climate monitoring, is projected to reach $45 billion by 2030.

The applicants for IN-SPACe’s latest effort in this regard include startups such as Google-backed Pixxel and Baring Private Equity-backed SatSure, as well as larger entities like Tata Group’s Tata Advanced Systems. The companies did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

This is all part of the Modi government’s effort to shift from a government-run space program, controlled by ISRO, to the capitalist model where private companies compete for business and there is no “program” at all, at least not one that controls everything. The government becomes nothing more than one of many customers, buying services and products from the private sector to achieve its “program”. The companies in that sector then follow their own goals, and profit and innovation dictate who succeeds best. The result under this freedom model is always more development faster for less cost.

Hat tip to BtB’s stringer Jay.

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December 30, 2024 Quick space links

3:52 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

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Beware the DEI shell game

1:09 pm

Don't trust it to do the right thing
Don’t trust the leftists who run it to do the right thing

In the past few months the conservative has been repeatedly celebrating the retreat of the racist “Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion” (DEI) movement. From corporations to universities DEI departments are being shut down.

Today I report on one of the most recent examples, but I do so as a warning. Just because a university or company announces plans to shut down a DEI department does not mean this racist policy is no longer being taught or used in hiring. In many cases, the shut down is merely a shell game to fool the general public while the policies continue, under the radar.

On December 17, 2024, the University of Iowa announced that was shuttering a number of programs, including its department of Gender, Women’s, and Sexuality Studies, and combining them into a new department dubbed the School of Social and Cultural Analysis. From the university’s press release:

Under the proposed plan, the college would close the departments of American Studies and Gender, Women’s, and Sexuality Studies, as well as the current majors in American Studies and in Social Justice, which have fewer than 60 students combined, and create a new major in Social and Cultural Analysis. The existing programs have limited faculty and overlapping curricula, causing challenges for faculty in sustaining teaching capacity. The new curricula will not only streamline operations but offer clarity and flexibility in students’ educational pathways.

“Right now, these programs are administered by multiple department chairs and multiple directors,” said Roland Racevskis, CLAS associate dean for the arts and humanities. “Under this proposed plan, the school would have a single leadership team dedicated to overseeing the operations of the programs. This new structure would provide better coordination of curriculum across these related programs, easier pathways for degree completion, and support for interdisciplinary research opportunities.”

Existing minors and certificates in associated areas would move into the new school. No changes to graduate programs are currently being proposed. [emphasis mine]

One of the reasons for this action is that the state legislature had recently passed an education appropriations bill [pdf] that specifically banned spending any money on DEI-type programs. From page 8 of the bill:
» Read more

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A fading supernova 650 million light years away

10:18 am

A fading supernova 650 million light years away
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken by the Hubble Space Telescope in March 2024, and shows the fading blue light of a supernova that was first discovered by another survey telescope six weeks earlier. The galaxy, dubbed LEDA 22057, is estimated to be about 650 million light years away.

The supernova is the bright spot in the galaxy’s southeast quadrant near the edge of the galaxy’s bright body. From today’s caption release:

SN 2024PI is classified as a Type Ia supernova. This type of supernova requires a remarkable object called a white dwarf, the crystallised core of a star with a mass less than about eight times the mass of the Sun. When a star of this size uses up the supply of hydrogen in its core, it balloons into a red giant, becoming cool, puffy and luminous. Over time, pulsations and stellar winds cause the star to shed its outer layers, leaving behind a white dwarf and a colourful planetary nebula. White dwarfs can have surface temperatures higher than 100,000 degrees and are extremely dense, packing roughly the mass of the Sun into a sphere the size of Earth.

While nearly all of the stars in the Milky Way will one day evolve into white dwarfs — this is the fate that awaits the Sun some five billion years in the future — not all of them will explode as Type Ia supernovae. For that to happen, the white dwarf must be a member of a binary star system. When a white dwarf syphons material from a stellar partner, the white dwarf can become too massive to support itself. The resulting burst of runaway nuclear fusion destroys the white dwarf in a supernova explosion that can be seen many galaxies away.

The rate in which this supernova fades will help astronomers untangle the processes that cause these gigantic explosions. Though the caption makes it sound as if we know how this happens, we really don’t. There are a lot of assumptions and guesses involved in the description above, based on the limited knowledge astronomers have gathered over the past few centuries looking at many supernovae many millions of light years away.

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India launches its first attempt to do an in-space docking demo

9:46 am

India’s space agency ISRO today successfully launched a mission, dubbed Spadex, to make its first attempt to do an in-space unmanned docking between two satellites, its PSLV rocket lifting off from its coastal Sriharikota spaceport. From the Spadex mission webpage:

The SpaDeX mission consists of two small spacecraft (about 220 kg each) to be launched by PSLV-C60, independently and simultaneously, into a 470 km circular orbit at 55° inclination, with a local time cycle of about 66 days. The demonstrated precision of the PSLV vehicle will be utilized to give a small relative velocity between the Target and Chaser spacecraft at the time of separation from the launch vehicle. This incremental velocity will allow the Target spacecraft to build a 10-20 km inter-satellite separation with respect to the Chaser within a day. At this point, the relative velocity between the Target will be compensated using the propulsion system of the Target spacecraft.

At the end of this drift arrest maneuver, the Target and Chaser will be in the same orbit with identical velocity but separated by about 20 km, known as Far Rendezvous. With a similar strategy of introducing and then compensating for a small relative velocity between the two spacecraft, the Chaser will approach the Target with progressively reduced inter-satellite distances of 5 km, 1.5 km, 500 m, 225 m, 15 m, and 3 m, ultimately leading to the docking of the two spacecraft. After successful docking and rigidization, electrical power transfer between the two satellites will be demonstrated before undocking and separation of the two satellites to start the operation of their respective payloads for the expected mission life of up to two years.

For India’s plans to build a manned space station this capability is essential. It will also be needed for its plans to send humans to the Moon.

As this was only India’s fifth launch in 2024, the leader board for the 2024 launch race remains unchanged:

136 SpaceX
65 China
17 Russia
14 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 156 to 98, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including American companies, 136 to 118.

At the moment only one more launch remains in 2024, a SpaceX Falcon 9 launch scheduled for tomorrow night. I will be publishing my year-end global launch report later this week.

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ESA approves a slightly smaller preliminary budget for 2025

9:26 am

The council running the European Space Agency (ESA) has now approved a preliminary budget for 2025 of $8 billion, a very slight reduction from the 2024 budget.

According to [ESA’s director general Josef] Aschbacher, the budget includes €4.8 billion in contributions from ESA member states, approximately €1.7 billion from the European Union, and €1.2 billion from “some other sources.” A more detailed breakdown of the 2025 ESA budget will be released during the DG’s annual press briefing, which is expected to occur on 9 January 2025.

It is also expected that the final budget will be higher once the legislatures of ESA’s numerous member states approve their contributions to the agency. Right now German, France, and Italy are the largest contributors. All three governments have in the past two years clearly signaled their determination to support commercial space. This should translate into support for ESA, though the two are becoming increasingly separated. Those nations could also decide there is no reason to give cash to this bureaucracy, and instead use it to directly fund their new private rocket startups.

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China replaces head of its space agency

9:16 am

The man who has headed China’s space agency since 2018 during its most aggressive and successful period, Zhang Kejian, has been replaced by the Chinese government. Zhang has also been removed from another important political post.

Zhang, 63, who has been head of the China National Space Administration (CNSA) since May 2018, is to be removed as Party Secretary of the State Administration for National Defense Science, Technology, and Industry (SASTIND), the agency announced Dec. 26. Shan Zhongde, 54, has been appointed as his replacement. The leader of SASTIND typically also heads CNSA and the China Atomic Energy Authority, both of which are subordinate agencies to SASTIND. CNSA has yet to announce the expected change.

China’s state run press provided no explanation for this change, though it also follows the removal of two other high ranking managers this year from another space agency, CASC, that is supervised by CNSA. Those removals are thought related to reports of corruption.

In the past two decades CNSA administrators went on to become heads of Chinese provinces, the approximate equivalent of a state governor in the U.S. and a somewhat powerful position. It appeared the Xi government was using its space agency as a training ground for its future political leaders. This in turn gave its space operations a favorable political position within the government.

Zhang’s removal in this manner and the rumors of corruption suggest this policy failed in his case. Another possibility is ven more significant if true. It might imply Zhang was involved in some power struggle that threatened Xi and his leadership. If this last possibility is so, the present favored political position of China’s space operations might be seriously threatened. Xi might have decided he did not like the power its leaders have garnered, and is now moving to squash it.

This does not mean the government will now move to reduce its space effort. It could mean however that funding will be more closely watched, and new projects questioned and rejected more easily.

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SpaceX completes two launches tonight from opposite coasts

10:09 pm

SpaceX tonight successfully completed two launches. First it placed 20 Starlink satellites into orbit (including 13 configured for direct-to-cell capabilities), its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California. The first stage completed its sixteenth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

Next SpaceX successfully launched four satellites for the smallsat startup Astranis, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida. The first stage completed its seventh flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic, while the two fairing halves completed their 12th and 22nd flights.

Astranis had previously launched one demonstration satellite, proving that its smallsat design could do the work in geosynchronous orbit traditionally done by much larger and more expensive satellites. The four satellites on this launch are its first attempt to provide commercial service. If successful it places this American company in a good position to grab the market share from the older geosynchronous companies like Intelsat, SES, and Eutelsat.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

136 SpaceX
65 China
17 Russia
14 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 156 to 97, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including American companies, 136 to 117.

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Roscosmos buys Earth observation data from private Russian satellite company

11:05 am

According to a report today by Russia’s state-run news agency TASS, Roscosmos has awarded a commercial contract to a private Russian satellite company, dubbed Sputnix, to purchase earth observation data its satellites have already collected.

“In 2024, up to 1.4 billion rubles [around $14.285 million] were allocated in budget funds to conclude forward contracts with private companies on buying out Earth’s remote sensing data obtained from their satellites and created under the federal project ‘Developing the Advanced Space Systems and Services High-Tech Sector.’ The first contract on buying out data has been concluded with the Sputnix Group of Companies,” Roscosmos said in a statement.

The Sputnix Group confirmed to TASS that the contract had been signed.

“Under the contract, the data already loaded into the database were bought out. We hope that next year we will be able to sign a forward contract as part of implementing the roadmap for the ‘Advanced Space Systems and Services’ project,” the company said, emphasizing that cooperation with Roscosmos remained a priority for Sputnix.

Sputnix was founded in 2011, and has so far launched 20 satellites into orbit, though many were short-lived cubesats. While on the surface this company appears real, it is not unlike the pseudo-companies in China. Its contracts appear to be almost all with the Russian government, all its work appears supervised by that government, and at any moment the Russian government can take it over, as it essentially did with the effort of the so-called private rocket startup S7 to launch from the Sea Launch ocean platform.

In other words, this news piece is simply the Russian government’s attempt to convince the world and its own people that there is a competitive and independent private sector in Russia, when in reality it doesn’t exist.

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Blue Origin completes first full dress rehearsal countdown and static fire test of New Glenn

8:43 pm

Blue Origin today successfully completed the first full dress rehearsal countdown and static fire test of its New Glenn orbital rocket at its launchpad at Cape Canaveral.

The tanking test included a full run-through of the terminal count sequence, testing the hand-off authority to and from the flight computer, and collecting fluid validation data. The first stage (GS1) tanks were filled and pressed with liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquid oxygen (LOX), and the second stage (GS2) with liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen–both to representative NG-1 set points.

The formal NG-1 Wet Dress Rehearsal demonstrated the final launch procedures leading into the hotfire engine run. All seven engines performed nominally, firing for 24 seconds, including at 100% thrust for 13 seconds. The test also demonstrated New Glenn’s autogenous pressurization system, which self-generates gases to pressurize GS1’s propellant tanks.

According to the company, the test achieved all its engineering goals, apparently making it ready for its targeted January 6, 2025 launch date. Beforehand however it will be rolled back into the assembly building so that its payload, Blue Origin’s Blue Ring orbital tug, can be stacked inside the fairings to fly a demo mission for the military.

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December 27, 2024 Quick space links

2:58 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

  • Air & Space touts the navigational work done by Jim Lovell during Apollo 8 in 1968
    For most of the mission, Lovell’s work was merely a back-up to calculations provided by ground computers and plugged into the capsule computer for use with its inertial measuring unit (IMU). Only once was Lovell’s navigation necessary, when he accidentally rebooted the IMU so it thought it was on the launchpad, not on its way back to Earth. To reprogram it he had to do his sextant sightings and enter those numbers into the computer.
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Blue Origin finally gets FAA license to launch New Glenn, now targeting January 6, 2025

2:27 pm

The first completely assembled New Glenn, on the launchpad
The first completely assembled New Glenn,
on the launchpad

The FAA, after months of apparent delays, today finally issued Blue Origin a license to launch its New Glenn rocket for a period covering the next five years.

As has now become the FAA’s custom, in issuing this license it also brags about its success in issuing the license “well in advance of the statutory deadline” for doing so.

What a crock. Blue Origin and NASA were originally targeting an October launch of New Glenn carrying two Mars orbiters, but had to cancel when the rocket couldn’t lift off during the six-day launch window. Though delays at Blue Origin certainly contributed to this cancellation, I suspect the FAA’s red tape played a major factor as well.

According to another source, Blue Origin is now targeting a launch date of January 6, 2025. The company is presently doing a static fire test on the launchpad.

Hat tip to BtB’s stringer Jay.

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Why this place in Valles Marineris is NOT a good place to establish trails and inns

11:57 am

Overview map

North rim and the top of the trail
Click for original image.

In my cool image yesterday I highlighted a location along the north rim of the gigantic Valles Marineris canyon on Mars that appeared a great place to establish a hiking trail. The trail would take hikers down from the rim to the floor of the canyon, a distance of more than 20 miles with an elevation loss of more than 31,000 feet, more than the height of Mount Everest. The image to the right shows the top of that trail, at the rim. The white dot on the overview map above shows its location in Valles Marineris.

Because of the trail’s length I also suggested that future colonists would likely set up inns along the way, so that hikers would have places to stay as they worked their way downhill day-by-day.

There is however one major reason not to build at this particular location, and it involves the most significant geological detail I noticed in the picture to the right. Note the arrows in both this image as well as the inset above. In the picture they mark a sudden drop paralleling the rim. In the inset they also show a series of parallel cracks further north.

The cliff and the cracks suggest that the entire cliff of this part of the north rim has subsided, and is in fact beginning to separate from the plateau, and will soon (in geological terms) collapse into a spectacular avalanche. If you look at the cliff face in the inset you can see two extended outflow piles that apparently came from smaller earlier such collapses.

Could this entire cliff face, the size of Mount Everest, actually separate and crash into the canyon? If you have doubts, then take a look at the image below.
» Read more

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Eutelsat-OneWeb stock plummets

10:02 am

Despite its merger with Eutelsat in 2023, the stock value of the combined Eutelsat-OneWeb satellite company has plummeted in the past year, more than halving the value of the OneWeb portion that was saved from bankruptcy by both the government of the United Kingdom and investors from India in 2020.

The collapse means the UK’s investment is worth €133m (£110m), representing a near £300m paper loss for the taxpayer. … However, while the all-share deal implied a value of €12 per share, Eutelsat’s stock has since imploded. In the past 12 months, it has halved and is trading at record lows of €2.58.

Eutelsat was facing its own collapse before the merger, as its business was geosynchronous communications satellites which are now losing their business to the low-Earth orbit constellations such as SpaceX’s Starlab and OneWeb’s. The merger was the company’s attempt to join this new market.

OneWeb however has had its own repeated problems completing that its constellation, and faced bankruptcy in 2020 because of delays from the COVID panic as well as delays in launching the Ariane-6 rocket. Then Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine in 2022 meant it lost all its remaining planned launches, forcing it to scramble to find other launch providers.

Stock market analysts don’t expect the combined company to begin earning profits for at least the next three to five years, which casts an even greater pall on its future.

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Parker probe phones home, signalling it has successfully survived its record-breaking closest approach to the Sun

9:42 am

Parker flight plan
The flight plan for Parker. Click for original.

NASA today reported that it has received a signal from the Parker Solar Probe, indicating all of its systems are in good health following its record-breaking closest approach to the Sun on December 24, 2024.

The mission operations team at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) in Laurel, Maryland received the signal just before midnight EST, on the night of Dec. 26. The team was out of contact with the spacecraft during closest approach, which occurred on Dec. 24, with Parker Solar Probe zipping just 3.8 million miles from the solar surface while moving about 430,000 miles per hour.

Not only was this the closest any human-built object has gotten to the Sun, it was the fastest any human-built object has ever traveled.

This close fly-by was Parker’s 22nd of the Sun since launch. In its nominal mission it plans to do two more close approaches as shown in the graphic to the right, both of which will be comparable to the record just set.

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Chinese solid-fueled rocket fails during launch

9:26 am

The commercial division of a Chinese space agency, dubbed CAS Space, late yesterday experienced a launch failure of its solid-fueled Kinetica-1 rocket, lifting off from the Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China.

A statement by the pseudo-company described the failure tersely:

We can confirm that the first two stages were nominal. Stage 3 lost attitude three seconds after ignition and the self-destructing mechanism was activated.

Nothing was said about where the first two stages crashed inside China, or whether they landed near habitable areas.

According to the first link above, this was the second launch failure by China in 2024, which is incorrect. This was the third launch failure for China (see here and here for previous two). That article also says this was the 68th total launch this year, suggesting China has completed 66 successful launches. This does not jive with my count, which presently says China has had 64 successful orbital launches this year. I suspect the two additional launched might have been suborbital tests — such as first stage hop tests (here, here, and here) — which I do not include in these totals. It also might be including the accidental launch of one first stage during a static fire test when it broke free and launched itself unintentional.

More recent information from my readers (see the comments below) suggests that, though the numbers above are not correct, my own count for China’s total successful orbital launches needs adjusting as well. I had marked a March 13th Chinese launch as a failure because the satellites were not placed in their proper orbit. However, using their thrusters engineers were eventually able to get them into place and they are operating. I have therefore increased China’s totals below by one.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

134 SpaceX
65 China
17 Russia
14 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 154 to 97, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including American companies, 134 to 117.

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December 26, 2024 Quick space links

3:34 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

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Just one of many potential hiking trails down into Valles Marineris

12:10 pm

Overview map

Just one of many potential trails into Valles Marineris
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on October 15, 2024 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). The white dot on the overview map above shows the location, on the northern interior wall of the vast Valles Marineris canyon on Mars.

As my readers know, I tend to look at the spectacular Martian photos coming back from the orbiters and rovers as much from a tourist perspective as that of a scientist. Thus, for this picture, my first thought was to consider the possibility of a trail weaving its way down the nose of that ridgeline and into the canyon. In the Grand Canyon such ridgelines often provide a route down where walking is possible the entire way, with no need for climbing or ropes.

To illustrate my thought, I have indicated the potential trail with the white line. All told this trail covers about 7.2 miles, and drops 12,500 feet. Such a drop is very steep for trails on Earth, with an average grade of 14 degrees and about three times the grade considered reasonable. On Mars, however, with its one-third gravity, I think a grade this steep would be reasonable, though certainly daunting mentally. You would not only be descending on a very steep slope, you would be doing so on the peak of this ridge, with drops of one to two thousand feet on either side.

Amazingly, the inset on the overview map shows that this trail gets you less than halfway to the bottom. All told, the drop from canyon rim to floor at this location is about 31,000 feet over 20 miles, a drop that is greater than climbing down from the top of Mount Everest. If I was to install a trail here I’d also build an inn or two along the way as rest stops for hikers.

What the trail would do is get you to the bottom of this particular ridgeline. From here the trail would have to drop off into the western hollow and from then on descend on top of its alluvial fill. The slope would be as steep, but it would be possible to alleviate that by putting in switchbacks. This would lower the grade, but increase the distance traveled significantly.

Geologically, this image shows to my eye one particular feature that is quite significant, at the rim. I will discuss this tomorrow, in my next cool image.

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New climate research debunks CO2’s ability to warm the atmosphere, even as other research shows CO2 greens the Earth

10:19 am

Climate models versus data
Click for full resolution graph.

Research that the political activists in the climate field (posing as scientists) refuse to cite is increasingly documenting two important and very encouraging facts about atmospheric carbon dioxide.

First, CO2’s ability to warm the climate is much more limited than claimed, suggesting just one more error (out of many) in the many global-warming climate models that have consistently failed to correctly predict the actual climate for at least two decades, as indicated by the graph to the right, published in January 2024. This new error involves the point where an increase in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere can no longer cause any increase in warming.

The Taiwanese scientists found that ground temperature warming of 0.3°C was associated with the increase from 100 ppm to 350 ppm and there was no additional warming at all as CO2 rose further from 350 ppm to 400 ppm. The current level of CO2 in the atmosphere is 420 ppm.

Seven Austrian scientists have also recently concentrated on CO2 and the infrared spectrum, noting that a future doubling of the gas up to 800 ppm “shows no increase in the IR absorption for the 15 u-central peak”. It is concluded that this can lead to 0.5°C warming at most. The scientists argue that climate models and their CO2 influences should be revised. Much more experimental evidence about IR radiation should be collected “before appointing current warming trends and climate change mechanisms monocausal to greenhouse gas theories”.

The second paper can be read here [pdf]. In their conclusion the scientists bluntly state that “Climate models and their CO 2 forcings should be revised.”

Nor are these two papers the only ones who have come to this conclusion. Research by others in the last two years repeatedly show that CO2 has a limited ability to warm the climate. Furthermore, all the global-warming climate models in the graph above have always recognized this fact, in that they don’t really depend on CO2 to do the warming. Instead, they depend on a convoluted theory whereby the small increase in CO2 will interact with the large amount of water vapor in the atmosphere (the real global warming component) to cause it to significantly warm the climate. This hypothesis is clever, but it continues to fail in all of its predictions.

The second positive consequence in the increase in atmospheric CO2 is its impact on plant life. It is causing a greening of the planet, which can only mean bigger crops, more food, and less starvation for every human being on Earth.
» Read more

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The known history of the Colossus of Rhodes

9:16 am

New research provides a more detailed and realistic history of the 100-foot-high statue from the ancient world called the Colossus of Rhodes.

The Colossus was a 30-metre-high bronze statue of the god Helios, built to commemorate the victory of the Rhodians over Demetrius of Macedonia, and considered one of the Seven Wonders of the Ancient World. Completed in 282 BCE, it fell in an earthquake only 56 years later in 226 BCE. The usual story is that the fragments remained untouched for 880 years until the invasion by the Umayyad caliph Muawiya I. However, literary and geological evidence suggest a more complex, and more likely, story involving several reconstructions, finishing with a devastating earthquake in 142 CE.

No one knows what it looked like or even the exact place it stood. The research ties its history however to the known earthquakes and later that had taken place at Rhodes, and thus provides a reasonable timeline for its destruction and removal. It also debunks this bit of “misinformation”:

In popular imagination, the Colossus stood astride the harbour entrance with ships sailing between his legs. This idea was first mentioned by an Italian pilgrim in 1395, who wrote that the Colossus stood with one leg at the end of the mole with the windmills and the other near St John’s chapel, later a fort. These sites are 750 metres apart, necessitating a statue 1500 metres high — a truly colossal edifice even by modern standards

The reason we don’t know where the statue actually stood is because the bronze used to forge it was exceedingly valuable. Once it was determined it could not be rebuilt that bronze did not remain in place for long.

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Russia launches earth resources satellite

9:53 am

Russia today successfully launched the last in a five-satellite constellation of satellites focused on mapping Earth resources, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from Baikonur in Kazakhstan.

The rocket’s core stage and four side boosters fell into frequently-used drop zones in Kazakhstan and Russia.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

134 SpaceX
64 China
17 Russia
14 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 154 to 97, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including American companies, 134 to 117.

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