Behind The Black – Robert Zimmerman

SpaceX gets NASA contract to launch gamma-ray space telescope

July 3, 2024 9:09 am Robert Zimmerman

NASA yesterday announced that it has awarded SpaceX a contract to launch a new gamma-ray space telescope, dubbed the Compton Spectrometer and Imager (COSI), using its Falcon 9 rocket and targeting an August 2027 launch date.

The firm-fixed-price contract has a value of approximately $69 million, which includes launch services and other mission related costs. The COSI mission currently is targeted to launch August 2027 on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station.

This wide-field gamma-ray telescope will study energetic phenomena in the Milky Way and beyond, including the creation and destruction of matter and antimatter and the final stages of the lives of stars. NASA’s COSI mission will probe the origins of the Milky Way’s galactic positrons, uncover the sites of nucleosynthesis in our galaxy, perform studies of gamma-ray polarization, and find counterparts to multi-messenger sources. The compact Compton telescope combines improved sensitivity, spectral resolution, angular resolution, and sky coverage to facilitate groundbreaking science.

The stated launch price gives us a sense of what SpaceX is charging these days for launches. The contract award also illustrates once again why the delays in developing ULA’s Vulcan and Blue Origin’s New Glenn rockets — caused by Blue Origin’s difficulties in manufacturing its BE-4 rocket engine — has ended up costing both companies a lot of money in sales. SpaceX keeps getting these launch contracts because Vulcan and New Glenn are not yet flying operationally. Vulcan has flown once, but it is probably isn’t capable of adding additional launches to is manifest. More important, the rocket is not yet reusable, and probably could not match SpaceX’s price.

As for New Glenn, it supposedly will make its first launch this fall, but we shall see. It remains four-plus years behind schedule, and though it is described as reusable, its first stage landing vertically like a Falcon 9, it is doubtful it will become doing this on its first launches. It needs to prove out its systems first.

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Las Vegas space-related resort (claiming it will be a spaceport) gets FAA airport license

July 3, 2024 8:56 am Robert Zimmerman

A project to build a space-related resort near Las Vegas has now obtained an airport license from the FAA.

The Federal Aviation Administration said small aircrafts can take off from the site of the Las Vegas Executive Airport, which is proposed to be built on about 240 acres of rural land about 45 minute drive away from Las Vegas. The plan is to develop the site into a Las Vegas Spaceport, according to a news release.

The FAA approval said it doesn’t oppose an airport at the site, the proposed takeoffs won’t need clearance from air traffic control and won’t operate in FAA-controlled airspace. If the airport wants to change any of its operations, it would need FAA approval.

The project, dubbed the Las Vegas Spaceport, intends to build a hotel and space-related training facilities to attract space geeks, and claims it will eventually add a launchpad, but considering its location, that last claim is very unlikely. The airport license however will allow it to add flight-training to its portfolio.

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SpaceX launches 20 Starlink satellites

July 3, 2024 8:27 am Robert Zimmerman

SpaceX early this morning launched another 20 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral.

The first stage completed its sixteenth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

70 SpaceX
29 China
8 Russia
8 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the world combined in successful launches, 81 to 44, while SpaceX by itself still leads the entire world, including other American companies, 70 to 55.

To get a sense of how incredible SpaceX’s launch pace this year has been, those 70 launches, completed in only days more than first half of the 2024, matches the American record for launches in a entire year, that was set in 1966 and remained the record until 2022.

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Lexington Lab Band – Waiting for a Girl Like You

July 2, 2024 6:01 pm Robert Zimmerman

An evening pause: A nice cover of the Foreigner song.

Hat tip Cotour.

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July 2, 2024 Quick space links

July 2, 2024 5:27 pm Robert Zimmerman

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

FCC says it’s impractical for satellite constellations to block coverage to specific nations

Proves the incompetence of these bureaucrats. Satellite operators have done this for years, with only minor issues.

English translation of Space Pioneer’s apology letter to nearby residents for its failed static fire test on June 30th

You can feel the Chicoms breathing down the pseudo-company’s neck.

Roscosmos approves schedule for building new Russian space station

First module is supposed to launch in 2027. You wanna bet?

India’s Aditya solar telescope just completed its halo orbit around Lagrange 1

The orbit took 178 days, and involved three engine burns to maintain its position.

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Democrats: You got what you asked for when the Supreme Court ruled presidents have absolute immunity for official actions

July 2, 2024 3:18 pm Robert Zimmerman

Cry havoc and let loose the dogs of war!

As always, the Democrats have once again demonstrated their utter inability to reflect even slightly on the consequences of their actions.

On July 1, 2024 the Supreme Court, faced with an appeal from Donald Trump that claimed he as president should have immunity from prosecution when his political opponents gain power, ruled that yes, Trump is right, that presidents do have absolute immunity for their “official” actions while in office.

The majority opinion finds that presidents have absolute immunity for core constitutional powers and presumptive immunity for other official acts. This immunity does “not extend to conduct in areas where his authority is shared with Congress,” and unofficial acts taken while in office receive no immunity at all.

The court ruled that President Trump’s conversations with the acting attorney general were core conduct subject to absolute immunity. It also ruled that his conversations with the vice president about the counting of the votes were part of his official duties, thus subject to presumptive, but not absolute, immunity—finding that Judge Chutkan should now assess whether prosecution of these actions intrudes on the authority and functions of the executive branch, and prosecutors will have to rebut the presumption of immunity if so.

Since then Democrat politicians and pundits have been gnashing their teeth in horror, claiming that this ruling now allows presidents to do almost anything once in office, from assassinating their opponents to using the military to arrest and eliminate judges he or she does not like.

The irony here of course escapes the Democrats. First, hasn’t Biden and his Department of Justice and the FBI been doing a milder form of the same abuse of power in their lawfare against Trump and those who worked for him?

Second, this case would never have gotten to the Supreme Court in the first place if the Democrats had not started that lawfare campaign. By prosecuting Trump on numerous weak and sometimes utterly bogus charges, it forced the issue to the courts, which was then forced to rule.

The biggest irony of this whole issue is that the Democrats are right. » Read more

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Centrifuge research on ISS suggests some artificial gravity can mitigate negative effects of weightlessness

July 2, 2024 1:30 pm Robert Zimmerman

Two of the three centrifuges on ISS

When I appeared on the Space Show last month I stated something about centrifuge research that was wrong. I had been under the false impression that no such research had yet been done on ISS, and our only data came from one experiment performed by the Soviets on one of their early space stations decades ago.

Charles Lurio, who writes the very respected Lurio Report newsletter on space matters, called me afterward to correct me, and then followed up by sending me a link to a paper describing research on ISS in the past few years using rats inside three different small centrifuges (two of which are shown in the picture to the right). For this information I thank him.

You can download the paper here [pdf]. The research is significant because it suggests that the medical problems of weightlessness can be solved by creating an artificial gravity far less the Earth’s 1g environment. From the paper’s abstract:
» Read more

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Geology on Mars is not always what you think it is

July 2, 2024 12:49 pm Robert Zimmerman

The Martian tropics versus the Martian south pole
For the original images go here and here.

Today’s cool image is actually a comparison of two different high resolution images from Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO), both of which illustrate why it is very dangerous to come to any conclusions about such images without knowing a lot more about them.

The top image to the right, cropped to post here, was a terrain sample image taken on March 30, 2024. Such images are usually taken not to complete any particular research project, but are taken to fill a gap in the schedule in order to maintain the camera’s proper temperature. When the camera team has to do this, they attempt to pick a spot that might have some geological interest. Sometimes they get something surprising. Often however the features in the picture are boring.

In this case they spotted a place where the ground appears appears to be eroding away in a random pattern.

The bottom image, cropped, reduced, and enhanced to post here, was taken on March 24, 2024 and was part of planned research. It shows a section of the Martian south ice cap, specifically the area where scientists believe there is a residual permanent small cap of dry ice on top of a thick underlying water ice cap.

Like the top image, the features here suggest some sort of erosion process eating away randomly at the ground’s upper layers.

The two images illustrate the difficulty of interpreting orbital images. At first glance the geological features of both appear very similar. Yet the top image is located in the very dry equatorial regions of Mars, and in fact is inside the Medusae Fossae Formation, the largest field of volcanic ash on the red planet. The layers here are likely ash, and the erosion that carved out the hollows likely came from wind. If there ever was near-surface ice at this location, it was many eons ago.

The bottom image however likely shows the sublimation process that is slowly eating away at the residual dry ice cap at the south pole. The Martian north pole does not have residual permanent cap of frozen carbon dioxide, and the reasons why the two caps are different in this way are complex and not completely understood.

Both images show erosion that produces features that look similar. But the materials involved and the causes are completely different.

Remember this when you look at any orbital picture taken of Mars, or any other planetary object. Without the larger context (location, make-up, known history), any guess about the nature of the features there is nothing more than a wild guess, no different than throwing darts at a wall while wearing a blindfold.

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Webb takes false-color infrared image of bi-polar protostar nebula

July 2, 2024 10:02 am Robert Zimmerman

Click for original image.

Scientists using the Webb Space Telescope have now produced a new false-color infrared image of the bi-polar hour-glass-shaped protostar nebula dubbed L1527.

That image is to the left, created from data from Webb’s MIRI (Mid-Infrared Instrument) and cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here. While it is not quite a pretty as a prevous Webb infrared image taken in 2022 by its NIRCam (Near-Infrared Camera), it provides new information about the make-up of materials within this nebula. From the caption:

The areas colored here in blue, which encompass most of the hourglass, show mostly carbonaceous molecules known as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. The protostar itself and the dense blanket of dust and a mixture of gases that surround it are represented in red. (The sparkler-like red extensions are an artifact of the telescopes’s optics). In between, MIRI reveals a white region directly above and below the protostar, which doesn’t show as strongly in the NIRCam view. This region is a mixture of hydrocarbons, ionized neon, and thick dust, which shows that the protostar propels this matter quite far away from it as it messily consumes material from its disk.

Previous to Webb, this object had mostly been studied in 2012 using radio and submillimeter wavelengths (see the papers here and here), but those papers determined this is possibly the youngest known protostar, less than 100,000 years old.

Florida approves expansion of spaceport territories

July 2, 2024 9:32 am Robert Zimmerman

Map of potential Florida spaceports

The Florida legislature has now approved two new locations in Florida where rocket launches can take place.

Governor Ron DeSantis signed off on a bill that, as of Monday, will add South Florida’s Homestead Air Reserve Base and the panhandle’s Tyndall Air Force Base to Florida’s growing spaceport territories.

The map to the right shows the spaceport locations within Florida. While the state government might now allow launches from these locations, it is unclear if either military facility is entertaining the idea.

Regardless, the Florida government is clearly intent on encouraging and attracting this new industry to its state.

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Blue Origin expands deal to fly citizens free on New Shepard

July 2, 2024 9:16 am Robert Zimmerman

Blue Origin, in partnership with a non-profit, has expanded its program to fly citizens free on suborbital flights of New Shepard, adding India and what it calls “the small island developing states (SIDS)” to the recently announced deal to fly a Nigerian.

The non-profit, dubbed Space Exploration and Research Agency (SERA), has purchased one seat on each of the next half dozen flights, and will only charge passengers $2.50 for the ticket.

In an unprecedented move, SERA will allow people around the world to vote on which citizens will take the approximately 11-minute journey. Anyone living in one of the program’s partner nations can apply to secure a seat. Applicants must be proficient in English, at least 18 years of age, and meet Blue Origin’s parameters for height, weight, physical fitness, and citizenship.

Five of the seats will be allocated to specific nations, and candidates will be voted on by citizens of those nations. The sixth will be open to anyone within a SERA-partnered country and chosen through a global vote. Remaining seat assignments will be announced later this year.

Overall, this continues the PR stunt nature of Blue Origin’s suborbital New Shepard, which apparently does not have enough business to fill its passenger manifest, and thus is arranging these give-aways. While the gesture is nice, it would be far better if the company got its orbital rocket off the ground and actually began flying real cargos and passengers into space.

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Chad & Jeremy – A Summer Song

July 1, 2024 6:01 pm Robert Zimmerman

An evening pause: Performed live on American Bandstand on November 28, 1964, though the music is almost certainly lip synched.

Hat tip Diane Zimmerman.

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July 1, 2024 Quick space links

July 1, 2024 5:28 pm Robert Zimmerman

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

Firefly conducts rapid launch operation, transporting payload fairing to pad and mating it to Alpha rocket just 14 hours before launch

That liftoff is scheduled for 9:03 pm (Pacific) tonight. The live stream is here.

Axiom to put a prototype data center unit on ISS this year for software testing

Four quick links in connection to Space Pioneer’s static fire test catastrophe yesterday:

According to specs, stand stage “load limit” is 600 tons, while the thrust in test is 820 tons and rocket weight is <590t. If “load limit” is for thrust, it’s a basic mistake

Space Pioneer’s own report: “Connection structure failure of the test stand with the first stage. Personnel evacuated before the test & no casualty”

Picture of crash site of Tianlong-3 test first stage

Company say it will continue rocket tests, but no large-scale ones in the near future

I think the company is going to have to explain itself to the Chinese government, which is likely to take a much closer interest in what these pseudo-companies are doing. This will not be to prevent dangerous accidents, but to use this most recent accident as a ploy to gain full control of these pseudo-companies.

Next Cygnus cargo mission will be named after astronaut Dick Scobee, who died in the 1986 Challenger failure

The freighter will be launched by a Falcon 9 sometime in August.

Mars Odyssey just completed its 100,000th orbit around Mars

It was launched in 2001, and has been in orbit for more than two decades. Nowadays it mostly serves as a communications satellite, relaying data from the rovers/landers back to Earth.

ISRO head says design of first module for India’s space station is complete

ISRO hopes to launch that module by 2028.

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Sunspot update: The Sun keeps its boom going

July 1, 2024 4:45 pm Robert Zimmerman

Time for my monthly analysis of NOAA’s monthly tracking of the number of sunspots on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere. As always, I have posted NOAA’s updated graph below, adding some details to provide the larger context.

In June the Sun continued the high activity from May, with the sunspot count significantly higher than predicted, 164.2 compared to the prediction of 104.9.
» Read more

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Is last week’s Biden-Trump debate a game-changing moment or not?

July 1, 2024 2:04 pm Robert Zimmerman

Joe Biden at his February 2024 press conference
after Justice Department special counsel Robert Hur
revealed he could not indict Biden of criminal misuse
of classified materials because Biden was “an elder
man with poor memory.”

In my life I have seen three moments in politics that appeared to change everything. In two of those cases, the appearance turned out to be true. In the third, in the end nothing changed, to the sad detriment of our country.

Last week’s debate between president Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump appears to be another such potential game-changing event. The change however will not be whether Joe Biden will be the candidate when the election finally rolls around in November, or whether even if he will win or lose the election.

The change, should it happen, will be much more funadmental. I come at this from the point of view of a historian, so bear with me as I attempt to explain.

Of the previous three game-changing moments, the first was the Watergate hearings in 1973. For months prior to those hearings, Republican politicians from all levels of government fought aggressively and with some success the accusations that president Richard Nixon had been involved in the Watergate break-in and the planning of the “dirty tricks” campaign against George McGovern leading up to the 1972 election.

The Watergate hearings however were a game-changer. It forced the entire Republican party to end its unqualified support of Nixon. The hearings, which were televised live each day and covered extensively by the press, were seen by everyone, and showed without doubt the extensive nature of Nixon’s dirty trick activity. It also illustrated bluntly the amount of duplicity and lying that Nixon and his cohorts were willing to do to defend themselves.

Unlike today, in the 1970s the American public did not tolerate lying by their politicians. Though the hearings ended in late June 1973, and Nixon held on until August 1974 before resigning, it was those hearings that ended his popularity and creditability. It was also those hearings that destroyed the creditability of the Republican Party at that time. Too many of them had backed Nixon blindly before the hearings, and were exposed themselves by those hearings as sycophants and toadies. The result: The Republican Party was wiped-out in the 1974 elections, with the Democrats gaining 53 seats in the House, 4 seats in the Senate, and 4 additional governorships.

The second game-changer occurred during the Iran-Contra affair in 1987 against Ronald Reagan. » Read more

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PLD pushes for first orbital launch from French Guiana in 2025

July 1, 2024 10:40 am Robert Zimmerman

The Spanish rocket startup PLD announced last week that it has invested more than $10 million in developing its own launchpad and assembly facility at France’s French Guiana spaceport, and is targeting 2025 for the first orbital launch of its Miura-5 rocket.

The launcher company PLD Space has announced today an investment of 10 million euros in MIURA 5 Launch Complex at Guiana Space Center (CSG), Europe’s spaceport in Kourou (French Guiana), owned by the French Space Agency (CNES) and the European Space Agency (ESA). With the first launch of its rocket at the end of 2025, PLD Space will become the first non-institutional launch operator that will go to orbit from this historical base.

The company is reconfiguring the launchpad used by France to launch its Diamant rocket back in the 1960s and 1970s. It will include “its own launch zone and a preparation area, comprising an integration hangar, a clean room, a control center, and both commercial and work offices.”

Right now it appears that PLD along with several other European rocket startups are going to bypass a number of American rocket startups that had had a significant headstart, but also appear to be stalled in the last year or so because of a new regulatory framework at the FAA.

New Polish suborbital rocket to be test flown from Andoya spaceport in Norway

July 1, 2024 10:26 am Robert Zimmerman

Proposed spaceports surrounding Norwegian Sea

A new Polish suborbital rocket, dubbed “ILR-33 Amber 2K,” and being developed by the Łukasiewicz Institute of Aviation, will do its next test flight from the Andoya spaceport in Norway.

After four consecutive test missions completed successfully in Poland, the next stage of preparations of the ILR-33 AMBER 2K to reach the edge of space will take place this year in July. Polish technology will be tested in Norway where one of the key European space centers for launching space vehicles is located.

According to this report, this rocket has a core stage with a hybrid-fueled engine plus two strap-on solid-fueled boosters, a configuration rare for suborbital rockets. After this test flight it will then begin operational suborbital flights, run by a Polish company Thorium from 2025 to 2027.

This deal is another competitive blow to the Saxaford and Sutherland spaceports in the United Kingdom. Both started commercial operations years ahead of either Andoya or Esrange, but because of red tape nothing has been yet allowed to launch from either. This Polish deal one of several for both the Andoya and Esrange spaceports that might have gone to the UK otherwise.

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SpaceX studying changes to de-orbit procedures for Dragon service module

July 1, 2024 10:09 am Robert Zimmerman

Because it appears the trunk section of the service module of SpaceX’s Dragon capsules actually survives re-entry, the company is now studying changes to its de-orbit procedures so that it can guarantee that trunk will not crash on land, as has happened now three times in the past two years.

The solution [a NASA official] said NASA and SpaceX are looking at involves changing deorbiting procedures. Currently, the trunk is released before the capsule performs its orbit burn. That means the trunk can remain in orbit for months before making an uncontrolled reentry.

Instead, [that NASA official] said engineers are examining doing the deorbit burn and then releasing the trunk. That would provide more control of where the trunk reenters, ensuring that any debris that survives reentry lands in unpopulated regions.

To make this new procedure work they need to recalculate the fuel requirements for doing the de-orbit burn. It also requires them to figure out when to detach the trunk after the burn. I expect SpaceX to successfully implement these changes before the next Dragon launch, whether manned or unmanned.

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Ispace’s Resilience lunar lander completes thermal vacuum testing

July 1, 2024 10:01 am Robert Zimmerman

The Japanese startup Ispace announced late last week that its second lunar lander, formerly names Hakuto-R2 and now dubbed Resilience, has successfully completed thermal vacuum testing and is on schedule for a launch before the end of this year.

The testing was completed at the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Tsukuba Space Center in Tsukuba, Japan, where the agency operates a large testing facility. The flight model was assembled at the facility and all payloads or testing models were integrated into the lunar lander before testing began. All test success criteria were met; ispace engineers are now reviewing the detailed data that RESILIENCE collected during the ten-day testing regime. The results will allow engineers to optimize the spacecraft thermally for spaceflight as well as improve flight operation procedures.

Thermal vacuum testing is conducted in a large chamber that allows the lunar lander to experience conditions similar to what it will face during its journey through outer space including extreme temperatures in a vacuum environment. Initial test results indicated successful operation of power systems, guidance, navigation and control (GNC) equipment, radio communications, and thermal control of the lander while simulating an actual spaceflight. During testing in the chamber, ispace operators utillized the lander’s onboard radio to assess connections, send commands to, and receive telemetry from the lander, further simulating actual flight operations.

This lander will also carry a mini-rover, and will be launched by a Falcon 9 rocket. The company’s press materials don’t name a location for the lunar landing spot, though one must have been chosen. I suspect, as this mission is a precursor to Ispace’s first NASA lunar landing mission set for 2026, it will be sent to the same location as Ispace’s first Hakuto-R1 test mission, which got to within three miles but then crashed because sensors thought it was just above the surface and shut off the engines prematurely.

Japan’s H3 rocket launches successfully for the second time

June 30, 2024 9:24 pm Robert Zimmerman

Japan’s space agency JAXA today successfully completed the second successive launch of its new H3 rocket, placing an Earth observation satellite into orbit.

This was the third launch of the H3, with the first in May 2023 a failure, and the second a success in February 2024.

I have embedded the video of the launch below, cued to T-15 seconds. This was Japan’s third launch in 2024, exceeding last year’s total of two and matching its total from 2024.

The leader board for the 2024 launch race remains unchanged:

69 SpaceX
29 China
8 Russia
8 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads the world combined in successful launches, 80 to 44, while SpaceX by itself still leads the entire world, including other American companies, 69 to 55.
» Read more

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Chinese first stage breaks free during static fire test; launches, crashes

June 30, 2024 10:08 am Robert Zimmerman

The first stage of Chinese pseudo-company Space Pioneer’s new Tianlong-3 rocket, intended for its first launch this summer, crashed and burned today during a static fire test when the equipment holding it down failed.

Video of this spectacular failure is embedded below. The rocket is essentially a copy of SpaceX’s Falcon 9, with that first stage designed to eventually become reusuable in the same way.

This pseudo-company recently announced it had raised $207 million in private investment capital, bringing the total it has raised to $552 million. It was also the first Chinese pseudo-company to launch an orbital rocket using liquid fuels, successfully doing so with its Tianlong-1 rocket in April 2023.

Though static fire engine tests have failed before, this appears to be the very first ever to actually break free and launch itself. Fortunately, according to both government and Space Pioneer officials, no one was hurt.

What impact this will have on China’s pseudo-private rocket industry is unknown. This incident isn’t the first, with a tank test by pseudo-company Landspace in January 2024 injuring three.

Moreover, there are hints that the Chinese government might be repossessing control from these companies (as I have expected from the start). Landspace, as well as two other pseudo-companies, Expace and Ispace, have been testing methane-fueled rockets, with Landspace having completed one orbital launch in December 2023 and all three successfully completing hop tests of their first stages.

Last week however a Chinese government agency successfully completed a 10-kilometer hop test of its own methane-fueled first stage. I wonder how much of its design was developed independently, or taken from these three pseudo-companies by the government. I suspect the latter, since none of these companies are really privately owned. They might seem so, but the communists can confiscate everything they have at any moment, and clearly supervises and dictates what they do, step-by-step.
» Read more

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France awards contract to French startup to launch two robotic satellite servicing missions

June 29, 2024 10:03 am Robert Zimmerman

Capitalism in space: France has awarded the French startup Infinite Orbits a contract to launch two robotic satellite servicing missions, one to attach itself to a still-unnamed satellite to extend its life, and a second to test rendezvous and proximity maneuvers near a defunct and thought-to-be tumbling weather satellite.

The key tidbit however is that the contract award is part of a French government program to encourage commercial space:

The France 2030 initiative is a €54 billion investment programme that aims to transform sectors of the French economy with technological innovation.

I was unaware of this French government program. It appears it signals a shift in financial support from the European Space Agency’s commercial entity Arianespace to new competitive French companies. If so, this is a very good sign for its aerospace industry.

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SpaceX and China complete launches

June 29, 2024 9:44 am Robert Zimmerman

Both SpaceX and China completed launches in the past 12 hours. First, SpaceX last night launched a package of National Reconnaissance Office reconnaissance satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California. The first stage completed its eighth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific. The two fairings completed their seventh and thirteenth flights respectively.

Then, early today China launched a new communications satellite, its new Long March 7A rocket lifting off from its coastal Wenchang spaceport. Video of the liftoff can be seen here.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

69 SpaceX
29 China
8 Russia
8 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads the world combined in successful launches, 80 to 43, while SpaceX by itself still leads the entire world, including other American companies, 69 to 54.

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June 28, 2024 Zimmerman/Batchelor podcast

June 28, 2024 8:01 pm Robert Zimmerman

Embedded below the fold in two parts.

To listen to all of John Batchelor’s podcasts, go here.
» Read more

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Clap Yo’ Hands – Fred Astaire & Kay Thompson

June 28, 2024 6:01 pm Robert Zimmerman

An evening pause: From the 1957 musical Funny Face. I only saw this film for the first time last week, and as I watched this scene I was most amused by Astaire’s dance moves in the second half of this number. “Why, Astaire is doing Gene Kelly!” I exclaimed to Diane.

Both men had their own styles. Kelly was into grand film presentations, acrobatics, and the soft shoe. Fred Astaire was into dance, in all its forms. If you are familiar with Kelly’s dance style you will see immediately how Astaire is parodying it, but with great respect.

Astaire’s partner in this number is Kay Thompson, in her only starring movie role. Thompson had an amazing artistic career, from writer (the Eloise children’s books) to vocal coach for Judy Garland and Gene Kelly to recording artist to night club performer. It is a shame we don’t have more films of her singing and dancing.

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Sixteen Nobel economists once again prove that our “expert” class is expert at nothing

June 28, 2024 1:57 pm Robert Zimmerman

Our modern intellectual class

Earlier this week a group of sixteen Nobel laureate economists issued a public letter endorsing Joe Biden’s economic agenda and claiming that a return of Donald Trump to the White House would lead to economic ruin.

“We believe that a second Trump term would have a negative impact on the U.S.’s economic standing in the world, and a destabilizing effect on the U.S.’s domestic economy,” the economists write in the letter. “Many Americans are concerned about inflation, which has come down remarkably fast. There is rightly a worry that Donald Trump will reignite this inflation, with his fiscally irresponsible budgets.”

You can read their letter here. It was signed by the following (the date of their Nobel award in parenthesis):

George A. Akerlof (2001), Sir Angus Deaton (2015), Claudia Goldin (2023), Sir Oliver Hart (2016), Eric S. Maskin (2007), Daniel L. McFadden (2000), Paul R. Milgrom (2020), Roger B. Myerson (2007), Edmund S. Phelps (2006), Paul M. Romer (2018), Alvin E. Roth (2012), William F. Sharpe (1990), Robert J. Shiller (2013), Christopher A. Sims (2011), Joseph Stiglitz (2001), and Robert B. Wilson (2020).

What is hilarious about their letter is how it exposes these so-called economic giants as partisan hacks. A dive into their campaign contributions finds that eleven are donors to Joe Biden or the Democrats, while the remaining five have all previously endorsed Biden publicly. Before the 2020 election two of these sixteen economists signed a similar letter, calling for Joe Biden’s election, claiming he would “…build an economy that works for all Americans.” In 2021 thirteen of these same economists then followed up with another letter, endorsing all of Biden’s spending proposals then before Congress (costing an expected $1.9 trillion).

A comparison between the claims in all three letters and what actually happened also reveals how little these economists know about economics. As noted at this City Journal article by James Piereson:
» Read more

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New update on SpaceX’s preparations for future Starship/Superheavy test launches

June 28, 2024 10:06 am Robert Zimmerman

Link here. Lots of progress described, all suggesting SpaceX continues to target late July for the next test orbital flight. Very much worth reading.

The article repeatedly suggests the work to prepare the launch tower at Boca Chica to catch a returning Superheavy means the next launch will attempt such a catch, but in truth there is no evidence such a thing is planned, other than a single tweet by Elon Musk. As the article finally admits in its next-to-last paragraph,

Starship can now fly missions that have very similar profiles to Flight 4 with the existing FAA license, but a license modification is needed for any catch attempt. If Flight 5 does indeed proceed with a catch attempt at the tower for Booster 12, additional paperwork will need to be filed for this license modification.

I continue to expect SpaceX to propose such a catch on a later flight. The tower work at Boca Chica could be the company doing the necessary work to prove to the FAA that a amended launch license process should be issued, but not for the next flight.

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Indonesia government offering proposed launch site to SpaceX and others

June 28, 2024 9:57 am Robert Zimmerman

Indonesia proposed spaceport on Baik

As part of its effort to promote a long term space industry development plan, Indonesian officials have repeatedly been offering a proposed launch site to SpaceX and others on government land on the island of Biak off the coast of New Guinea.

The map to the right shows the location. First SpaceX and China were offered use of Baik. Neither has accepted. Then,

As recently as 2023, BRIN officials promoted their spaceport plans at the G20 Space Economy Leaders’ Meeting and Asia-Pacific Regional Space Agency Forum. China, Russia, Japan, South Korea and India were invited as potential partners, but none signed on.

Meanwhile, the article says Indonesia hopes to launch 19 satellites in 2025, using a variety of commercial launchers.

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European weather satellite company cancels launch contract with Ariane-6, switches to SpaceX

June 28, 2024 9:37 am Robert Zimmerman

We now know the reason why an Arianespace official on June 26th demanded new legislation requiring all European payloads to launch on European rockets. Today it was revealed that the European weather satellite company Eumetsat has canceled a launch contract on an Ariane-6 rocket and instead switched to SpaceX’s Falcon 9.

Late yesterday, French news outlet Le Monde reported that the executive committee of Eumetsat, the European meteorological satellite agency, had asked the agency’s board of directors to cancel a contract it signed with Arianespace four years ago to launch its Meteosat MTG-S1 satellite. The mission would have been flown aboard the third Ariane 6 flight, which is expected to be launched in early 2025. The satellite will now be launched aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket.

Not surprisingly, another French official today — Philippe Baptiste, the head of France’s CNES space agency — once again demanded action to require European companies to use European rockets. In his whining however he revealed an amazing inability to understand why this decision was made.

“How far will we, Europeans, go in our naivety. … I am impatiently waiting to understand what reasons could have led Eumetsat to such a decision at a time [when] all major European space countries as well as the European Commission are calling for launching European satellites on European launchers.”

The reasons why are quite obvious, and if this guy can’t recognize them then there is little hope the European Ciommision will ever figure out how to compete. Not only is the cost for a Falcon 9 launch likely one third that of an Ariane-6, it is a proven launcher. Ariane-6, four years behind schedule, won’t make its first launch until July 9, 2024, assuming all goes as planned. Eumetsat officials probably decided they couldn’t afford the extra cost and risk.

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Russian inspector satellite now approaching its eleventh communications satellite

June 28, 2024 9:22 am Robert Zimmerman

A Russian inspector satellite dubbed Luch-2 and launched in March 2023 is now maneuvering to make a close approach and surveillance of an eleventh commercial communications satellite in geosynchronous orbit.

The company is forecasting that Luch 2’s next object of interest is the Intelsat 1002 communications satellite. “Luch 2 is expected to perform an additional maneuver to stop its drift near Intelsat 1002 on June 28 if it continues its past pattern of behavior,” Slingshot said. This behavior mirrors that of its predecessor, Luch Olymp-K-1, which has been known for similar intelligence-gathering activities.

The close approaches have ranged from 12 miles to 142 miles, with most getting inside 100 miles distance.

It is unlikely Russia is testing robotic maneuvering technology, as it has had this capability since the 1970s. More likely it is testing the ability to intercept communications from such satellites, though it is unknown whether Luch-2 has done so. Visiting multiple satellites would also permit it to test against a wide variety of technology.

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Winner of the 2003 Eugene M. Emme Award of the American Astronautical Society.