Tag: competition

Two launches so far today, with a third only hours away

9:29 am

Since last night there were two launches globally, by China and SpaceX, with a third launch scheduled several hours hence by the rocket startup Isar Aerospace.

First, China’s launched eight classified “high-resolution optical remote sensing” satellites, its solid-fueled Kinetica-1 rocket (also called Lijian-1) lifting off from its Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China. Such satellites are almost certainly for military reconnaissance. China’s state-run press provided no other information, nor did it mention where the rocket’s lower stages crashed inside China. Kinetica-1 is also built by the pseudo-company CAS-Space, which happens to be wholly owned by a government agency.

Next, SpaceX launched 24 more Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The first stage completed its 14th flight (45 days after its previous flight), landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

Finally, a third launch is scheduled for 1 pm (Pacific) by the rocket startup Isar Aerospace. It will be making its second attempt from Norway’s Andoya spaceport to launch its Spectrum rocket, the first having failed seconds after launch in March 2025. I have embedded the live stream below, and will post a separate report after the launch.

The leaders in the 2026 launch race (prior to Isar’s launch attempt):

71 SpaceX
37 China
8 Russia
8 Rocket Lab (plus two suborbital HASTE launches)

For the third straight year SpaceX leads the entire world combined in total launches, 71 to 64.
» Read more

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India won’t reveal the cause of its two PSLV rocket failures

10:19 am

India's space agency ISRO, as transparent as mud
India’s space agency ISRO,
as transparent as mud

Though one of India’s high government officials yesterday announced that its space agency ISRO had “resolved” the third stage issue that caused two consecutive failures of its PSLV rocket, that official also refused to provide any details.

Union Minister of State for Science and Technology Jitendra Singh on Saturday said that the anomaly in the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) has been resolved. Dr. Singh said on the sidelines of the Research, Industry, Start-up and Entrepreneurship (RISE) Conclave 2026 in Bengaluru, that the national level expert committee constituted to review the reason for anomaly in PSLV Vehicle has submitted its report and the anomaly has been detected.

“The report has come out and the anomaly has been detected. However we cannot share that (reason for the anomaly) on a public platform. But experts are working on it, which has been resolved and very soon we will be back on the track,” Dr. Singh said replying to a query by The Hindu.

Note that after the first third stage failure in 2025, ISRO was also reticent about revealing the problem and how it fixed it. Then the third stage failed again at almost the exact same moment during the next launch in January 2026.

A month later this same official announced ISRO knew what the problem was and had fixed it — once again giving no details — and said the next launch was scheduled for June 2026. It is now June, and despite Singh’s promise no PSLV launch is being prepared.

This lack of transparancy speaks very badly for ISRO. It will make it extremely difficult for it to attract any commercial customers. In fact, that is basically what has happened. Before the Covid panic ISRO had a decent share of the commercial satellite market. Now, even with that satellite market growing in leaps and bounds, it has almost no commercial customers.

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SpaceX’s IPO sets the stage for the colonization of the solar system — by private enterprise

1:01 pm

Elon Musk during the IPO
Elon Musk at the IPO opening.

While most news reports have focused trivially on Elon Musk’s status as the first trillionaire resulting from SpaceX’s successful initial public offering (IPO) last week, the real story of that IPO has to do with SpaceX itself and how that company’s extremely bright future is going to change human history.

Let me run some numbers.

The day’s earnings

First, the IPO was designed to raise capital for SpaceX by selling about 555 million shares of stock, with an opening price of $135. Once IPO opened however that price immediately jumped to $150, rising as high as $176 during the day, and by closing time settled at $160.95.

If we pick a conservative average sale price of $155 per share, this means SpaceX raised more than $86 billion in investment capital on this one day. The actual number will be less, because the brokerage houses that ran the IPO get a cut, but I would guess SpaceX will walk away with at least $75 billion once all accounts are settled.

To give this some context, NASA’s annual budget for the past two decades has been around $24 billion. NASA however cannot use that cash very efficiently, because it is required by Congress to have a huge unneeded labor force in many centers scattered around the country, to create jobs in specific congressional districts and states.

SpaceX doesn’t have that problem. For the company, this is real money. It can focus its use very precisely and efficiently for what needs to be done, and thus get a lot more bang out of the buck.

Annual earnings

SpaceX however is not limited to just the capital raised in the IPO.
» Read more

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Two launches today by Japan and SpaceX

8:47 am

The beat goes on! Even as SpaceX proceeds today with the largest initial public offering of stock ever, raising an expected $75 billion in cash for its long term plans, the global launch industry marched on with two launches today.

First, Japan’s space agency JAXA successfully launched its H3 rocket on a test flight following a launch failure in December 2025. The rocket lifted off from JAXA’s Tanegashima spaceport in southern Japan, using its simplest configuration, with no solid-fueled strap-on boosters. Though the rocket deployed some cubesats, its main payload was a dummy satellite to test the rocket’s deployment system, which caused the 2025 failure by not holding its satellite in place. On today’s launch, the deployment system worked as planned, which means JAXA can now resume operational launches with H3.

This was Japan’s first launch in 2026.

Next, SpaceX placed another 29 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida. The first stage completed its 27th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic (58 days after its previous flight).

The leaders in the 2026 launch race:

70 SpaceX
36 China
8 Russia
8 Rocket Lab (plus two suborbital HASTE launches)

For the third straight year SpaceX leads the entire world combined in total launches, 70 to 63.

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Two orbital launches today by China and SpaceX, plus a suborbital hypersonic launch by Rocket Lab

10:45 am

The beat goes on! Since last night both China and SpaceX successfully completed orbital launches.

First, China used its most powerful operating rocket, the Long March 5, to place what its state-run press called “a new communication technology test satellite” into orbit, the rocket lifting off from its coastal Wenchang spaceport. As the Long March 5 can haul very large payloads into orbit, it suggests this one satellite is unusually heavy.

Next, SpaceX successfully placed another 24 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

The first stage (B1071) successfully completed its 34th flight (38 days after its previous flight), landing on a drone ship in the Pacific. With this flight the stage moved past the space shuttle Atlantis, putting it in third place in the rankings for the most reused launch vehicle:

39 Discovery space shuttle
35 Falcon 9 booster B1067
34 Falcon 9 booster B1071
33 Atlantis space shuttle
32 Falcon 9 booster B1063
31 Falcon 9 booster B1069
28 Columbia space shuttle
28 Falcon 9 booster B1077
28 Falcon 9 booster B1078

Sources here and here.

Though it was not an orbital launch and thus isn’t added to my launch totals, Rocket Lab also launched last night, using its HASTE suborbital version of its Electron rocket to do a suborbital hypersonic test for the War Department, as part of its $190 million contract to do twenty such test flights. This appears to be the first of those launches.

UPDATE: The HASTE launch appears to have actually been an orbital one, with a second stage and kick stage, both of which reached orbit. No information has been released on the status of the classified payload, which I suspect was a test hypersonic missile that was accelerated to orbital speeds by that second stage and kick stage, but then flew a guided high speed planned suborbital test flight. Since this launch did place objects in orbit, and appears to have been 100% successful as planned I am including it in my launch totals below.

The leaders in the 2026 launch race:

69 SpaceX
36 China
8 Russia
8 Rocket Lab (plus two suborbital HASTE launches)

For the third straight year SpaceX leads the entire world combined in total launches, 69 to 62.

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Another unsuccessful suborbital launch from proposed Nova Scotia spaceport

9:44 am

Proposed Canadian spaceports
Proposed Canadian spaceports

For the second time in less than seven months the Canadian startup company T-Minus unsuccessfully attempted a suborbital test launch from the proposed Spaceport Nova Scotia, owned and operated by the company Maritime Launch Services and funded mostly by a major $200 million lease by the Canadian government.

The launch was conducted from Spaceport Nova Scotia under approved regulatory and safety frameworks. The demonstration strengthened coordination among launch site teams and partners while refining launch operational procedures and the safety and security systems that govern all activities at the spaceport.

While two suborbital flights had been planned for today’s demonstration, the decision was made to conclude operations following the first flight in order to review mission data and incorporate lessons learned into future testing activities. The demonstration featured the launch of the Barracuda, a hypersonic, single-stage, solid-fuel suborbital vehicle capable of carrying payloads of up to 40 kilograms to altitudes of approximately 80 kilometres.

Full analysis of the flight data will continue over the coming weeks. However, initial data indicate that the vehicle operated nominally during the powered phase of flight before experiencing an anomaly late in the boost phase.

In other words, the first launch did not operate as expected, which forced the cancellation of the second launch. T-Minus had a similar result in its November 2025 test, making its record 2-for-2 in failures.

This launch was really designed as a PR event, not a space launch. Maritime invited numerous government officials and celebrities to watch, even as the leftist Carney government has tried to falsely sell its spaceport lease as a way to establish a sovereign launch capability for Canada.

Maritime itself has been trying to get this spaceport off the ground since 2016, with no success. Only in the last year it has come back to life due to that $200 million government lease. With that financing, Maritime has been able to sign up two different rocket startups to consider launching from Spaceport Nova Scotia, the German company Isar Aerospace and the South Korean company Innospace.

However, no orbital launches are presently scheduled, and it is likely none will occur before 2028. And when or if it happens, it will not be by a Canadian rocket company.

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Stoke Space successfully completes all tank tests for 1st stage of its Nova rocket

9:24 am

Stoke's Nova rocket
Stoke’s Nova rocket, designed to be
completely reusable.

The rocket startup Stoke Space announced earlier this week it has successfully completed all tank tests for 1st stage of its Nova rocket, thus increasing the odds that the rocket’s first launch will occur before the end of this year.

During this campaign, the team filled both tanks above their maximum expected pressure conditions, demonstrated automated pressure control across a range of fill levels, and operated the vehicle through challenging environmental conditions, including hurricane-force winds and a severe lightning storm. More than just a successful structural test campaign, the result was a broader demonstration that Nova’s hardware, software, ground systems, and operations approach are maturing together.

The company noted that it is not unusual for new rockets to experience explosions and other failures during this testing phase, thus making its complete success without a failure “a significant achievement.”

Stoke has consistently refused to set a launch date as it has been developing its rocket. It approach has been simply “We will launch when we are ready.” It has had this luxury in that it has successfully raised $1.34 billion in private investment capital, attracted to the company because of its rocket’s radical design that will allow both its first and second stages to be reusable. The first stage will land vertically, as does SpaceX’s Falcon 9.

The second stage uses a revolutionary nozzle design that makes its return possible. Instead of a single central nozzle, the engine has a ring of small nozzles on the outside edge of its heat shield. The stage will then return to Earth like a capsule, with those nozzles adding force to control and slow its descent.

The rocket itself has a smaller payload capacity than a Falcon 9, but its ability to be completely reusable means its second stage is far more capable. It can fly multiple times, thus lowering the launch costs for its customers. It can also provide an orbital manufacturing site, like a Varda capsule, which will attract a much larger customer base.

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Mitsubishi gets subsidy from Japan to develop its own orbital tug

9:52 am

The Japanese aerospace company Mitsubishi today announced that Japan’s Space Strategic Fund has awarded it a subsidy of an undisclosed amount to its develop its own orbital tug.

The goal is to develop an OTV [orbital transfer vehicle] that can respond flexibly to user needs, navigate between orbits, and load and release payloads in space without being limited to specific applications or transport routes. The company also aims to verify the feasibility of autonomous rendezvous, proximity operations and docking (RPOD) using physical AI and robotics for the safe and effective capture, handling and release of payloads in space.

The Space Strategic Fund was created by the Japanese government in 2023 as a ten year $6.6 billion program to encourage the growth of a private Japanese space sector, to essentially transition Japan from a government space program run and owned by its space agency JAXA to a independent and competing private sector, following the capitalism model.

That fund however was given to JAXA to manage, and so far it appears it has not moved aggressively to promote an independent sector. Inside, the awards it has given out so far have mostly been to either fund its own programs, or help its big space partners, such as Mitsubishi. This could change of course as privately-owned spacecraft begin garnering customers outside of JAXA. It is however taking a long time, and meanwhile Japan’s space industry continues to trail badly both China and India, and even South Korea. While these Asian companies are developing multiple rockets and spacecraft, Japan presently has no operational rockets, and its commercial space sector is barely alive.

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India takes first step to privatize its largest rocket, the LVM3 or Bahubali

9:21 am

LVM3 launching a set of OneWeb satellites in 2022
LVM3 about to launch a set of OneWeb satellites in 2022

IN-SPACe, the agency assigned the job for shifting India’s space effort away from its space agency ISRO and to the private sector, yesterday released an Expression of Interest (EOI), asking India’s private aerospace industry for bids to take over operations of ISRO’s LVM3 rocket (also called Bahubali), its most powerful rocket that ISRO plans to use for its future manned and interplanetary missions.

The invitation for EOI, released on Tuesday, invites eligible Indian private companies or industry consortia to acquire and operationalise LVM3 technology from ISRO. The LVM3, often referred to as ISRO’s ‘Baahubali’ rocket, is the agency’s heaviest operational launch vehicle and is behind key missions including Chandrayaan 2 and 3. The selected private entity will receive technology transfer and extensive support from ISRO to absorb the technology and begin manufacturing and launching LVM3 vehicles commercially.

The EOI invitation also lays down the eligibility criteria for the applicable private entities. ISRO’s handholding and infrastructure support is proposed for a defined period of 42 months or until the realisation and launch of two LVM3 vehicles by the selected entity, whichever comes earlier.

The eventual goal is for the private sector to market LVM3 for commercial purposes, outside of ISRO’s Gaganyaan and space station manned program. While ISRO will continue to operate the rocket to launch manned missions as well as the country’s proposed Bharatiya Antariksh Space Station (BAS), the private company that takes over LVM3 will sell it to the international market for profit. As this is a powerful rocket, it can compete directly with SpaceX’s Falcon 9, ULA’s Vulcan, Blue Origin’s New Glenn, and Arianespace’s Ariane-6.

IN-SPACe has already begun this process with ISRO’s smallsat SSLV rocket, transferring operations in June 2025 to Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). There are also indications it is trying to do the same with ISRO’s mid-sized PSLV rocket. If all three transfers go through, almost all of ISRO’s rockets will be operated by the private sector.

Don’t expect this transition to the private sector to happen quickly. As we have seen in the U.S., the shift away from a government-run space program to a chaotic free capitalist space industry can take many years, decades even. And its eventual success is never guaranteed, as government agencies fight hard to protect their turf, and they have the power of government coercion to back them up.

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China picks four of its pseudo-companies to launch its new Qingzhou cargo freighter

8:54 am

China's Qingzhou unmanned cargo freighter
China’s Qingzhou unmanned cargo freighter

China’s government has now chosen four of its pseudo-companies to allow them to bid on launching its new smaller and less costly Qingzhou freighter to bring cargo its Tiangong-3 space station.

Launch firms Galactic Energy, CAS Space, OrienSpace and Landspace were shortlisted to launch the Qingzhou cargo spacecraft, following the launch of a prototype of the supply vessel March 30. The four were named in a public notice posted to China’s national tendering platform June 5, with the notice period closing June 9. The notice does not indicate the selection of a final provider.

The full scale Qingzhou cargo spacecraft is tentatively scheduled for launch in January 2027, subject to the final launch window, according to the tender information. The mission is intended to dock at Tiangong to provide supplies for the first time. Qingzhou is developed by the Innovation Academy for Microsatellites of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAMCAS), and is one of two low-cost space station resupply spacecraft being developed under a program initiated by China’s human spaceflight agency, CMSEO, to support Tiangong. The prototype completed rendezvous tests in April.

Of these four pseudo-companies, CAS Space and Landspace are most likely to get the first Qingzhou launch contracts. CAS Space is wholly-owned by a government agency, giving it a distinct political advantage. Its Kinetica-2 solid-fueled rocket has also flown a number of times successfully, including one mission that launched the first Qingzhou prototype in March 2026.

Landspace’s rocket, the Zhuque-2, has also flown successfully a number of times (with one failure). As an independent pseudo-company with no direct ownership by the government, its political connections are not as good. At the same time, all these pseudo-companies are essentially owned by the communist government, which recognizes private property only at its convenience.

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NASA announces crew and flight plan for Artemis-3 Earth orbit mission next year

12:22 pm

Artemis logo

NASA today unveiled both the four-person crew that will fly its Artemis-3 Earth orbit mission next year as well as the mission’s basic plan, assuming both SpaceX and Blue Origin can get their respective lunar landers ready in time.

Crew assignments are as follows:

  • NASA astronaut Randy Bresnik, commander
  • ESA (European Space Agency) astronaut Luca Parmitano, pilot
  • NASA astronaut Frank Rubio, mission specialist
  • NASA astronaut Andre Douglas, mission specialist

… NASA astronaut Bob Hines was named as a backup crew member.

Except for Douglas, all are veterans.

The mission details were also announced:

Artemis III includes launching the world’s most powerful rockets in short order. Blue Origin’s lander pathfinder, which is able to stay in orbit for multiple weeks, will launch first and await the crew. NASA will send the astronauts aboard Orion by SLS to orbit Earth, before rendezvousing in space with the company’s lander test article and spending about two days docked together for tests and technology demonstrations, including entering the lander.

After completing docked operations with Blue Origin, Orion will detach and await Starship. SpaceX’s Starship pathfinder will launch and meet up with Orion to spend about a day connected for checkouts and testing. After that, Orion and its crew will undock and return home, splashing safely down in the Pacific Ocean where a team from the U.S. Navy and NASA will recover the astronauts.

In total, the crew is expected to remain in space for about two weeks, with exact mission length to be determined in real-time based on launch, rendezvous, and docked operations.

All of this assumes that New Glenn has been fixed and is operational by late 2027 and can launch the Blue Moon Mark-2 manned lunar lander. It also assumes the lunar lander version of Starship is ready and operational and man-rated. It also assumes NASA can get SLS stacked and ready for launch much faster than previously expected.

All are big assumptions.

Other issues: Orion will be testing its docking system and its newly redesigned heat shield for the first time, with humans on board. As the return will be from low Earth orbit, the stress on the heat shield will be relatively light, reducing the risk considerably. Similarly, if the docking system fails they simply won’t dock, and can return to Earth instead. Both should work, however, as neither is cutting edge technology.

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Update on SpaceX preparations at Boca Chica for next Starship/Superheavy test flight

10:54 am

Link here. The key news is that SpaceX has moved Superheavy prototype #20 — the booster that will carry Starship prototype #40 on the 13th orbital test flight — to the test stand to begin tank and engine tests.

Cryogenic testing on B20 will focus on verifying the structural integrity of the liquid oxygen and methane tanks under extreme cold temperatures, while also checking the performance of internal systems, including COPVs, piping, valves, and sensors. This phase is critical for ensuring the booster can safely handle propellant loads before any engine firings.

Based on the article’s overall estimate of what still needs to be done, it is projecting a July-August time frame for the 13th flight. While that will be only two to three months after the 12th flight, significantly less than the seven months between the 11th and 12th flights, it still is longer than required. In order to get Starship certified for a manned Artemis-3 Earth orbit mission next year, a lot of test flights will have to occur in quick succession, on a monthly basis. For the lunar missions the company also has to start flying refueling missions in Earth orbit, which will require the launch of multiple Starships within several weeks.

SpaceX has indicated in intends to do that refueling mission before the end of the year. To do that however this 13th flight must fly in the summer and largely achieve most of its engineering goals.

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Orbital tug startup Quantum raises $300 million by merging with a SPAC

10:40 am

Quantum's proposed Ranger tug
Quantum’s proposed Ranger tug

The orbital tug startup Quantum Space has gone public by merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), raising $300 million in the process.

Quantum Space announced June 8 that it will merge with Inflection Point Acquisition Corp. VI, a SPAC traded on the Nasdaq exchange. The companies expect the deal to close in the fourth quarter, with Quantum Space then trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol QSPC.

The deal includes a $300 million investment, known as a private investment in public equity, or PIPE, by Inflection Point into Quantum Space. The SPAC also has $253 million in trust that would go to Quantum Space, assuming none of its shareholders redeem their shares. The deal would value Quantum Space at more than $1.1 billion if there are no SPAC redemptions.

The company’s press release is here. Quantum gets extra press because its CEO is Jim Bridenstine, former NASA administrator. The company is developing a tug it labels Ranger, designed with the War Department in mind, capable of not only moving satellites around but also maneuvering to other satellites for reconnaissance and surveillance.

The company however is a latecomer to the orbital tug field. There are several tug and satellite servicing companies (Impulse, Starfish, Momentus, to name just three) that have already flown their tugs and done actual missions. Another, Katalyst, will be launching its first mission in about a month, to rescue the Gehrels-Swift space telescope.

It will be interesting to see if Bridenstine can succeed in playing catch up.

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Chinese pseudo-company Landspace launches two satellites

9:16 am

The Chinese pseudo-company Landspace yesterday successfully launched two satellites, its Zhuque-2E rocket lifting off from the Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China.

The Zhuque-2E is an upgraded version of Landspace’s Zhuquie-2 rocket, apparently using a larger fairing with an increased payload capacity. The two satellites were both for communications. One was for the Qianfan (Spacesail) internet constellation, which now has approximately 200 satellites in orbit out of a planned 12,000, with the constellation’s first phase targeting 648 by the end of the year. The second satellite was for a different constellation, and is a experimental satellite testing cell-to-satellite technology.

China’s state-run press provided no information about where the rocket’s lower stages crashed inside China.

The leaders in the 2026 launch race:

68 SpaceX
35 China
8 Russia
7 Rocket Lab

For the third straight year SpaceX leads the entire world combined in total launches, 68 to 60.

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German rocket startup Isar raises $312 million; sets new launch date

9:06 am

Proposed or active spaceports in north Europe
Proposed or active spaceports in north Europe

The German rocket startup Isar Aerospace today announced in has raised $270 euros ($312 million) in a new funding round, bringing the total investment capital the company has raised to just under one billion, about $914 million.

The round is backed by new investors Island Green Capital and Molten Ventures with strong participation from existing investors HV Capital, Lakestar, UVC Partners with co-investor KfW Capital, and others, with substantial contributions from European stakeholders – underscoring Europe’s continued strong commitment to the company’s strategic role in providing space sovereignty and technological leadership.

This total does not include the funding provided by the European Space Agency, which is likely in the range of $20 to $40 million, though the actual number has not been published.

Isar's first launch attempt fails
Spectrum falling seconds after its launch
in March 2025

The company also announced a new launch window for its second attempt to complete the first orbital mission of its Spectrum rocket. The new window runs from June 15 to 21, lifting off from Norway’s Andoya spaceport. The previous attempt failed less than a minute after launch. The company tried to do this second attempt in January, but scrubbed the launch several times due to technical issues.

If successful, this launch will make Isar the first new commercial rocket startup from Europe to complete a launch. Two others, PLD from Spain and Rocket Factory Augsburg from Germany, are saying they will launch this year, but no actual launch dates have been set.

All these new startups are small rockets, comparable to Rocket Lab’s Electron. Thus they will not compete with SpaceX initially. All however are aiming to move to larger versions as they gain experience and data.

The launch will also make Andoya the first commercial spaceport in Europe to successful complete an orbital launch.

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SpaceX’s IPO: A quick look at the financial world’s present take

9:23 am

SpaceX logo

As SpaceX and the Wall Street gear up for the June 12, 2026 initial public offering (IPO) of SpaceX stock, there have been a number of articles published in the past week expressing skepticism about it, mostly aimed at trying to predict what will happen in order to advise potential buyers.

Much of this is guesswork, but the people speaking are people who do this for a living, so it might be worthwhile to take a look at what what they have to say. Below are a few examples.

First, the New Yorker published a detailed article questioning the overall $1.75 trillion valuation of SpaceX listed in its IPO. It doubts the reality of the company’s AI division, its plan to launch a constellation of data satellites, and notes that Starlink and the launch divisions don’t make up the difference. Overall, its analysis concludes the valuation is over-rated, and should be approached with caution.

Business Insider also posted an article expressing reservations about the IPO’s unusual requirement that 30% of all shares be reserved for the retail market, made up of small individual buyers.

Here’s how it’s instead been interpreted by the retail-investor commentariat: They’re capitalizing on trader excitement and relying on it to supplement demand from institutions. The heavy allocation is essentially setting up retail to hold the bag after longer-term shareholders take profits.

I myself have had this analysis confirmed by one source, that the major big stock buyers are themselves planning to hold back their purchases for at least the first few months, believing the stock price will be pumped up initially by this flood of small enthusiastic buyers. They will wait for it to drop — as they expect — and then buy, taking their profits then.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal posted two articles with contradictory conclusions:

The first article is very optimistic. The second is less so, approaching the situation more carefully.

For my readers who wish to invest, I strongly suggest you read them all, and consider them all. Investment here might not be as great as you think.

For SpaceX and the future of space exploration however the situation is excellent, whether or not buyers are going to make money on its IPO. The company is certain to bring in more than $75 billion, maybe as much as $86 billion, giving it the capital to do everything it wants in the next few years. It will build Starship. It will send it to both the Moon and Mars. It will have the resources to fuel Elon Musk’s fundamental dream, building a major human civilization throughout the solar system.

In this alone the IPO will be historic, as it lays the groundwork for the human colonization of space. History begins now, and it does so under the aegis of capitalism and freedom.

33 comments

Czech Republic buys seat on Vast mission to ISS

8:37 am

Haven-1 with docked Dragon capsule
Artist rendering of Haven-1 with docked
Dragon capsule

In its continuing effort to sign customers (and earn income) outside of NASA funding, the space station startup Vast today announced it has signed a deal with the Czech Republic to fly one of its astronauts to ISS on its planned mission there in 2027.

This agreement builds on the memorandum of understanding that Vast, and the Czech Republic signed in 2024. Subject to Multilateral Crew Operations Panel (MCOP) review and approval, Aleš Svoboda, one of the 12 members of the astronaut reserve selected by ESA in November 2022, will serve as the mission pilot. The MCOP’s decisions are reached through a consensus among representatives from all five space station partners: NASA, ESA, Roscosmos, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, and the Canadian Space Agency. Pending approval, Aleš Svoboda will become the first Czech astronaut to visit the International Space Station. Svoboda is planned to join ESA Astronaut Thomas Pesquet who is the named Commander for the mission.

Pesquet is a French astronaut flying under the deal France signed with Vast only two weeks ago.

Unlike the Starlab and Axiom stations, Vast is building its single module demo station, Haven-1, with no government funds. It is not only flying this private two-week mission to ISS, it is also planning four two-week missions to Haven-1 during if three year mission, once it launches next year. All will use SpaceX’s Falcon 9 as a launch provider, with one of its Dragon capsules for crew transport.

Below is my updated ranking of the five American space stations presently under development:
» Read more

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SpaceX launches 29 Starlink satellites, uses 1st stage for record 35th time

3:37 am

SpaceX early this morning successfully launched another 29 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral Space Force station in Florida.

The first stage (B1067) successfully completed its 35th flight (70 days after its previous flight), landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic. This flight was a new record for the reuse of a Falcon 9 first stage, placing it only four behind the space shuttle Discovery in the rankings for the most reused launch vehicle:

39 Discovery space shuttle
35 Falcon 9 booster B1067
33 Atlantis space shuttle
33 Falcon 9 booster B1071
32 Falcon 9 booster B1063
31 Falcon 9 booster B1069
28 Columbia space shuttle
28 Falcon 9 booster B1077
28 Falcon 9 booster B1078

Sources here and here.

Expect these rankings to see some newer Falcon 9 first stages in the near future The older stages listed here seem to take about two months generally to turn-around after each launch. The younger stages are instead turning around much faster, in one month or less.

The leaders in the 2026 launch race:

68 SpaceX
34 China
8 Russia
7 Rocket Lab

For the third straight year SpaceX leads the entire world combined in total launches, 68 to 59.

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Australia’s Southern Launch range gets another re-entry capsule customer

9:44 am

Proposed Australian spaceports
Australian spaceports: operating (red dot) and proposed (red “X”)
Click for original image.

The Australlian spaceport Southern Launch, which also controls the Koonibba Test Range where a variety of government and commercial capsules have landed since 2020, has signed another American company building its own re-entry capsules.

Southern Launch has signed a new agreement with US-based SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. to host multiple re-entry missions at the Koonibba Test Range in South Australia.

The agreement enables SpaceWorks to advance its growing portfolio of atmospheric Re-Entry Devices (RED) and further demonstrates confidence in the Koonibba Test Range as the leading global location for the safe and reliable return of spacecraft and high-value payloads.

This is the third American re-entry capsule company to sign with Southern Launch. Varda has already landed I think five capsules at Koonibba, and has a deal to land up to 20 through 2028. In 2025 the American startup Lux Aeterna signed a deal as well.

Two take-aways from this story: First, SpaceWorks as a re-entry capsule company appears to be a new project, joining the host of other re-entry capsule companies that have obtained investment capital since Varda demonstrated its success, including three U.S. and five European startups. It really appears the financial community sees profits here, and are committing money to this effort.

Two, the red tape by multiple U.S. government agencies in 2023 that delayed the return of Varda’s first capsule to the Air Force’s test range in Utah for six months has driven all this business out of the U.S.

That red tape was part of the Biden administration’s general policy aimed at hindering private enterprise, but it also is systematic to the existing administrative state that dominates and impedes American industry across the board. The result here is the business went elsewhere.

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SpaceX launches 21 Starlink and 2 Starshield satellites

8:12 am

SpaceX last night successfully launched another 21 Starlink and two Starshield satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

Starshield is SpaceX’s military version of Starlink. The first stage completed its 10th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

The leaders in the 2026 launch race:

67 SpaceX
34 China
8 Russia
7 Rocket Lab

For the third straight year SpaceX leads the entire world combined in total launches, 67 to 59.

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