Tag: competition

The present state of NASA’s Artemis program

12:00 pm

Artemis logo

The aggressive effort by NASA administrator Jared Isaacman to rationalize and speed up the agency’s Artemis program to get back to the Moon and build a base there has resulted in a plethora of new missions, almost all of which are being built by the private sector.

Today Isaacman and his Moon Base program manager, Carlos García-Galán, held a press conference where they announced four more missions.

  • Astrobotic won a $297.9 million contract to build and fly two more of its smaller Peregrine lunar landers. This lander attempted a landing in 2024, but a fuel leak right after launch made that impossible.
  • Firefly won a $144.2 million contract to build and fly another Blue Ghost lander, the only commercial lander to successfully achieve a lunar soft landing, in 2025.
  • Intuitive Machines won a $148.3 million contract to build and fly another Nova-C lander. This lander attempted two landings, and in both cases it tipped over just after launch. The Nova-D design, under development, has a lower center of gravity, but for reasons not well explained by García-Galán NASA chose to go with the Nova-C design.

The precise launch date and lunar landing location for each lander is as yet undisclosed, though all are considered part of the first phase of the Artemis program, which suggests a target launch in 2028.

In addition, NASA is considering using back-up equipment developed to build the Curiosity and Perseverance Mars rovers to create quickly and relatively inexpensively a lunar rover that they have dubbed “Promise.”

In order to make some sense of this program and these many misssions, I have created below a chronological list of confirmed missions, with their present status indicated (including uncertainties), as well as some unconfirmed missions based on my own speculations. All dates are tentative at this point, even if NASA has provided us a specific target date.

Several things to note as you review this list. While there are handful of missions going elsewhere, Isaacman is attempting to focus the program toward landing at the planned lunar base near the south pole, and to do so as fast as possible in the most effective way. The cargo missions and rovers are to get there ahead of the manned missions, in order to provide the astronauts supplies and surface transportation once they arrive. Those same missions will also do some preliminary scouting, and likely carry power and excavation equpiment needed to build the base.

It is also important to note that this plan is still in its very early stages of development. Many of the rockets and spacecraft and landers needed for these missions are not yet operational. Many have not yet demonstrated the capability to do what is requested. Thus, the program will certainly not follow the plan as presently outlined by the agency. Moreover, there will be failures along the way.

The program however is designed to accelerate development, to accept those failures within the program’s larger scope. If one mission fails, others are on the table to fly quickly to overcome the loss. And since the program is relying on the entire aerospace industry, the agency will have great redundancy from many companies.

I welcome comments and suggested changes or corrections. I fully intend to publish this list repeatedly over the coming years as the Artemis program evolves. And as the private sector begins flying its own missions to the Moon, independent of NASA, I intend to include those as well.
» Read more

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NASA’s IG: Boeing must foot the bill to get Starliner certified for manned flights

10:02 am

Starliner docked to ISS
Starliner docked to ISS.

The inspector general (IG) for NASA today released a new audit report [pdf] of the agency’s management of its manned commercial crew program, specifically looking at Boeing’s Starliner capsule and its failures. Though the IG made six recommendations, mostly about management procedures to better run the program, the first was the most important:

As the [Boeing] contract allows, defer payments, including partial or advanced payments, to Boeing for any Starliner-3 milestones until the human-rating certification of Starliner is complete.

In other words, the IG doesn’t want NASA to pay Boeing anything more. Boeing’s contract for Starliner was fixed price. It is Boeing’s responsibility to deliver the product, and until it does so NASA should lay out no more cash.

More significantly, NASA’s management immediately concurred with this recommendation.

This IG report now explains much of what happened in the past few months. » Read more

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Rocket Lab buys Iridium

3:39 pm

In a blockbuster deal today, Rocket Lab acquired the satellite company Iridium and all its satellite constellation assets.

Rocket Lab will acquire all the outstanding shares of Iridium common stock for $54 per share in a cash and stock transaction. This represents an enterprise value for Iridium of approximately $8.0 billion.

The acquisition … merges Rocket Lab’s leading launch capabilities and satellite manufacturing with Iridium’s global satellite communications network, spectrum, and 500-plus strong partner ecosystem to create a competitive, vertically-integrated space company that designs, builds, launches, and operates its own constellations, delivering critical communications capability to millions of users worldwide.

The transaction will give Rocket Lab an immediate foothold in space-based applications, including both proprietary and standards-based satellite Internet of Things (IoT) and direct-to-device (D2D), PNT (GPS-capability), and critical safety-of-life services, creating a formidable challenger in the global telecom market.

This deal continues Rocket Lab’s aggressive effort in the last few years to diversify its capabilities beyond simply launching rockets. It has successfully demonstrated its ability to build satellites and even interplanetary probes. This merger immediately gives the company the spectrum and communications constellation that already has 2.5 million subscribers, with the ability to enhance and expand that constellation using its launch and satellite capabilities. With the introduction of its larger Neutron rocket next year, Rocket Lab will be well positioned to compete directly with all the other communications constellations, and to do it at a lower cost.

The deal also strengthens the company’s vertical integration. As the press release notes, it “creates an end-to-end space company spanning launch, spacecraft, spectrum, and on-orbit communications services through a proprietary network. Expected to eliminate third-party launch costs for constellation deployment and replenishment and captures launch margin internally while guaranteeing orbital access as launch capacity tightens, ensuring continuity of service to customers.”

Not surprisingly, the value of Rocket Lab’s stock today has leaped upward, rising from a closing price on Friday of around $85 to over $100 today (late Monday).

The industry trend across the board now is vertical integration, begun by SpaceX. It just pays to have the rocket company own the satellite constellation. Such a partnership lowers cost, and gives the company great flexibility and control. Expect more satellite constellations to team up with other rocket companies, especially the startups like Stoke Space and Relativity that are building reusable rockets.

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SpaceX launches 24 more Starlink satellites

9:16 am

SpaceX this morning successfully launched another 24 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

The first stage (B1088) completed its 17th flight (25 days after its previous flight), landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

The leaders in the 2026 launch race:

77 SpaceX
41 China
10 Rocket Lab (plus two suborbital HASTE launches)
8 Russia

For the third straight year SpaceX leads the entire world combined in total launches, 77 to 71.

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Rocket Lab launches another radar satellite for Japanese company Synspective

10:55 am

Rocket Lab early today successfully completed its tenth launch (out of a 27-launch contract) for the Japanese radar satellite company Synspective, its Electron rocket lifting off from one of its two launchpads in New Zealand.

The leaders in the 2026 launch race:

76 SpaceX
41 China
10 Rocket Lab (plus two suborbital HASTE launches)
8 Russia

For the third straight year SpaceX leads the entire world combined in total launches, 76 to 71.

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SpaceX’s proposed cloud constellation of a million satellites named “Starmind”

8:54 am

Elon Musk has confirmed that SpaceX has named its proposed constellation of a million data computing satellites will be dubbed “Starmind”, following its pattern in recent years of naming every new project in a similar manner.

After Starship, Musk has named every project a variation thereof. We have had Starlink, Starshield, Starbase, Starfactory, Starfall, and now Starmind. It is also building natural gas pipeline to supply methane to Boca Chica that it has dubbed Starpipe.

The company hopes to launch the first Starmind satellites on Starship early in 2027.

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Firefly buys the AI navigation technology used on its Blue Ghost lunar landing

8:45 am

Blue Ghost's shadow on the Moon, with the Earth in the background
Blue Ghost’s shadow on the Moon, with the Earth in the background,
after its 2025 touchdown.

Firefly has now acquired Space-ng, the company that makes the AI navigation technology and software that Firefly used on its successful Blue Ghost lunar landing in 2025.

Space-ng’s vision navigation software was utilized during Firefly’s historic Blue Ghost Mission 1 to determine position and attitude, detect hazardous lunar terrain, and autonomously redirect Blue Ghost in real-time, enabling a safe, precise touchdown within the Moon’s Mare Crisium.

…In addition to vision navigation software, Space-ng brings high-resolution spacecraft cameras and AI compute hardware to enable advanced space domain awareness, onboard optical navigation, rendezvous and proximity operations, and docking without requiring GPS or GNSS. Firefly plans to integrate Space-ng’s technologies across its fleet of lunar landers and orbital vehicles to support its growing mission manifest, including three additional lunar missions under NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services initiative, another lunar mission supporting NASA MoonFall, and a space domain awareness mission for the Defense Innovation Unit.

Of all the recent attempts by commercial companies to land on the Moon, Firefly is the only one to have a complete success. While Space-ng’s technology worked perfectly to guide Blue Ghost to a safe touch down, the guidance technology used by Intuitive Machines (twice), Ispace (twice), Beresheet, and the first Vikram lander for India all failed close to landing. No wonder Firefly decided to buy it.

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Musk’s employee stock options made them millions; Bezos’s employee options were worthless

8:31 am

According to a very intriguing article at Business Insider today, the stock options offered to employees at SpaceX and Blue Origin were starkly different, with SpaceX’s options making millions for its workers while Blue Origin’s were essentially worthless.

Three ex-employees of Jeff Bezos’ rocket maker Blue Origin told Business Insider that the company’s unusual approach to equity left them with stock options that are essentially worthless.

Meanwhile, they’ve watched SpaceX’s dizzying rise to a $2 trillion-plus valuation provide a massive windfall for early hires — from engineers to welders to cafeteria workers — who received stock options during their time at Elon Musk’s company.

Blue Origin’s options were written so that they only could be cashed in if the company went public within ten years. As Bezos has shown zero interest in going public — which would take away his full ownership and control of the company — those options have been steadily expiring as they reach their ten year due date.

At SpaceX however the employee stock options could always be cashed in, even before the company went public. Employees, both current and former, were allowed to sell their stock back to SpaceX or to its investors in private liquidity events that usually occurred twice each year. After the IPO they could now sell the stock on the open market, at the going rate.

The difference is possibly one additional reason the accomplishments of the two companies have been so starkly dissimilar/ SpaceX made sure its employees got a pay off for the long hours it demanded. Blue Origin did not.

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South Korea’s space agency wants to accelerate its launch capabilities

10:53 am

The head of South Korea’s space agency KASA, Oh Tae-seok, yesterday outlined plans to to accelerate the launch cadence of its government-built Nuri rocket, while also beginning research into building a second spaceport along with a specific launchpad for private companies.

Oh Tae-seok, head of KASA, held a press briefing at the agency in Sacheon, South Gyeongsang Province, on Thursday. “This week, the assembly of the first, second, and third stages of the fifth Nuri rocket will be completed,” he said. “From next week, we will begin full assembly of the entire rocket, and after the Launch Management Committee in early August, a September launch is expected.”

Oh also stressed the need to build a repeated launch system after the fifth launch to advance toward an era of “commercial launch services.” “To ensure the economic viability of Nuri, changes are needed in standardization and specification, as well as contracting methods and launch site operations, in addition to the advancement project,” he said. “We are preparing for four launches from 2029 to 2032.”

In addition, the agency plans to accelerate construction of the second spaceport. KASA began accepting candidate site applications for the second spaceport on the 22nd of this month. “We will select the final candidate site in October this year and aim to begin the project in 2028,” the agency said Thursday.

This second news report quoted Oh as also saying this:

“In the 2030s, rather than the current R&D approach, we should consider converting to a system where we commission launch services through purchasing, as NASA does.” This is a model similar to how NASA purchases launch services from private companies such as SpaceX.

In other words, even as he accelerates the use of Nuri, Oh wants to replace it with private rockets. Whether he can do both is questionable, because they act to cancel each other. A cheaper and viable government rocket will make it difficult for private startups to compete.

At the moment South Korea has one truly viable rocket startup, Innospace, which has one launch failure and hopes to try again before the end of the year. That it does not launch in South Korea but in Brazil suggests KASA has not been as cooperative with the commercial sector as Oh wants. His statements about building a launchpad for the private sector suggest he is aware of this.

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ESA to expand its program designed to encourage its commercial rocket industry

9:10 am

The European Space Agency (ESA) today announced it is expanding its “European Flight Ticket” program, designed to encourage its commercial rocket industry, by offering more rocket startups the opportunity to join.

The European Space Agency and the European Commission are inviting launch service providers across Europe to apply to join the European Flight Ticket Initiative. The objective of the Flight Ticket Initiative is to strengthen Europe’s access to space. European launch service providers compete to deliver missions for In-orbit Demonstration and Validation satellite (IOD/IOV) which test new space technologies in orbit. To support this, ESA launched a new two-part call for proposals.

To participate in the Flight Ticket Initiative, a launch service operator must first be awarded a framework contract. This allows them to compete for future missions under the Initiative. Avio, Isar Aerospace, PLD Space, and Rocket Factory Augsburg hold such contracts with ESA, following a first selection in 2024.

ESA and the European Commission are now expanding this pool by inviting additional European providers to apply. Companies that expect to be ready to launch before 2028 are encouraged to take part.

The program is also requesting bids for a new round of launch contracts. All bids are due by July 17, 2026.

The five European companies listed above are all either already operational (Avio), or hope to complete their first launch this year. There are several other European startups (Maiaspace, Latitude, HyImpulse) that are not far behind, and will likely bid.

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Four medical research organizations sign deals to do work on Vast’s space stations

8:59 am

Vast's Haven-1 and Haven-2 stations

Capitalism in space: The space station startup up Vast yesterday announced that three medical research companies and one university institute have signed preliminary agreements to continue and expand their ISS biological research on Vast’s Haven-1 and Haven-2 space stations.

Vast, the company building next-generation space stations and space infrastructure, announced today memorandums of understanding (MoUs) with UC San Diego’s Sanford Stem Cell Institute, Auxilium Biotechnologies, LambdaVision, and BioOrbit, advancing its network of microgravity research and manufacturing partners. Vast’s network brings together world-class universities, pioneering researchers, and cutting-edge technology providers to shape the future of microgravity research and manufacturing conducted in low-Earth orbit (LEO).

Though all four have done pure research on ISS, none have been permitted to produce products there for sale on Earth, due to NASA’s anti-commercial regulations. This will change on the new private stations. For example, LambdaVision has already signed an earlier agreement with the Starlab station to use it to manufacture its artificial retinas for sale. Auxilium meanwhile has already demonstrated on ISS the ability to create implantable medical devices using 3D printing. On Vast’s stations it will be able to expand this work by producing saleable products. BioOrbit in turn will use the Haven stations to begin manufacturing the zero gravity pharmaceuticals it has already tested on ISS.

Below is my updated ranking of the five American space stations presently under development:
» Read more

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SpaceX launches 24 more Starlink satellites

8:28 am

SpaceX last night successfully placed another 24 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

The first stage (B1081) completed its 25th flight (50 days after its previous flight), landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

The leaders in the 2026 launch race:

76 SpaceX
41 China
9 Rocket Lab (plus two suborbital HASTE launches)
8 Russia

For the third straight year SpaceX leads the entire world combined in total launches, 76 to 70.

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Boeing wins $2 billion satellite contract from Space Force

9:05 am

In what appears to be the first major space contract Boeing has won in awhile, the Space Force yesterday awarded it a $2 billion contract to build two new military communications satellites, part of the War Department’s MUOS constellation.

The Boeing Co., El Segundo, California, has been awarded a maximum $2,002,862,607 fixed-price-incentive-firm-target contract for the Mobile User Objective System (MUOS) service life extension Phase II effort. This contract provides for the design, development, build, launch support, and on-orbit test support of two MUOS satellites. Work will be performed in El Segundo, California, and is expected to be completed by Sept. 30, 2035. [emphasis mine]

Boeing won the contract competition over Lockheed Martin, which had built the previous MUOS satellites.

I highlight the fixed-price nature of the contract. Boeing’s space-related division in the past two decades has had trouble dealing with such contracts, its corporate culture having become spoiled with cost-plus contracts, which are essentially blank checks. Its fixed-price Starliner contract is the best example, but the company’s repeated inability to stay under budget or get things done got so bad that by 2020 NASA announced it would no longer entertain any contract bids from the company, a policy that it still follows.

For Boeing, making this fixed-price contract work is literally a make-or-break situation. It needs to beginning producing such contracts on-budget and on-time, or else it will die.

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Some details about SpaceX’s secretive Starfall demo mission

8:40 am

Artist's rendering of Starfall provided during today's live steam
Artist’s rendering of Starfall provided during the launch live steam

In reading every report in the past day about SpaceX’s Starfall demo mission, in which it tested a returnable capsule capable of doing manufacturing in space or point-to-point transportation of cargo, the only one that appeared to provide any details about the mission itself was this article at NASAspaceflight.com.

And even those details are unconfirmed and somewhat sparse:

The Starfall demonstration vehicle stayed attached to the Falcon 9 second stage in LEO [low Earth orbit] for around 1.5 orbits. The second stage then deorbited itself and the Starfall capsule, after which Starfall was jettisoned and prepared for reentry. SpaceX released limited information about the mission, and it is unknown whether the Starfall demonstration vehicle carried any payloads, though instrumentation was likely used to measure reentry forces.

Following reentry, Starfall separated its two halves, deployed its parachutes, and splashed down in the Pacific, approximately 1,300 km off the west coast of the United States.

That’s all we presently know. Based on SpaceX’s tight-lipped approach, this mission was probably paid for by the War Department. In 2021 the Air Force had issued the company a $47.9 million contract to test point-to-point cargo transport by rocket “anywhere on the Earth in less than one hour, with a 100-ton capacity.” That cargo requirement suggested the rocket had to be Starship. It is very possible the contract was later amended to fit the 20 ton capability of Falcon 9, and this flight was the first demonstration of this cargo transport capability.

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Namibian government rejects Starlink

10:52 am

The Namibian government today announced it has rejected SpaceX’s application to provide Starlink to that country, apparently because the company will not comply with its laws that require ownership by Namibia citizens.

As a result, the regulator upheld its earlier ruling, stating that Starlink’s application remained non-compliant with the ownership and control requirements contained in Section 46 of the Communications Act, No. 8 of 2009. CRAN acknowledged that Low Earth Orbit satellite technology has the potential to improve connectivity across Namibia but stressed that all telecommunications operators must comply with the country’s legal and regulatory framework.

The authority also clarified that exemptions from the ownership requirements under Section 46(2) of the Communications Act can only be granted by the Minister of Information and Communication Technology and cannot be determined by CRAN through a reconsideration process.

In Africa such ownership laws almost always include a racial quota, requiring a certain percentage of ownership go specifically to blacks. SpaceX across the board refuses to do this.

The government apparently got 624 comments from the public asking it approve SpaceX’s application, but the regulators threw out all but 2 of those comments for what appears to be minor language or procedural issues.

My guess is that SpaceX refused to bribe these petty dictators, and so they denied the application.

Namibia, like South Africa, is making a foolish decision here, and as a result it is making itself a backwater, likely to trail the world in economic growth and prosperity for decades to come.

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SpaceX to raise $20 billion more by selling bonds

9:49 am

As part of its need for cash both to support its planned major capital projects and partly it appears to pay off some debt, SpaceX now plans to sell bonds in order to raise an additional $20 billion more.

The proceeds from the bond offering will mostly be used to refinance a $20 billion bridge loan SpaceX took in March as it prepared to go public. Such loans basically ensure that companies planning to go public have the money they would need to wait out an unfavorable turn in market conditions.

As the article at the link notes, however, SpaceX is hardly cash poor, having on hand over $100 billion after its initial public offering (IPO) of stock two weeks ago. On the surface this bond sale seems unnecessary, but I suspect its purpose is merely refinancing some already existing debt in order to save the company some money.

The propaganda press has been making much in the past week about the drop in SpaceX’s stock price following its original burst during the IPO, often spinning the drop as proof that SpaceX is not that valuable a company (see this NBC report for example). After raising to above $200 per share from its initial price of $135, it has since dropped to about $160. All of this is entirely normal. New stocks that capture the public’s interest all do this. The stock is simply now finding its natural market price, which by the way is still higher than that initial price.

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China’s Shenlong X-37B copy deploys a satellite

9:33 am

Shenlong in orbit shortly after launch
Shenlong in orbit shortly after launch.
Click for source.

According to data from the space surveillance company LeoLabs, China’s Shenlong mini-reusable shuttle — similar to the X-37B — deployed a object sometime before June 22, 2026.

At 02:30 UTC on 22 June 2026, LeoLabs detected an unknown object in the vicinity of the Chinese Shenlong reusable spaceplane.

This object did not correlate to any other object in our catalog. It was first observed by our Tracker radar in New Zealand.

This is not the first time a Shenlong in orbit released an object. On two previous flights in 2023 and 2024 it did the same. The Shenlong in orbit now was launched on February 7, 2026, the fourth mission of this X-37B copycat.

Overall, China has released very little information about Shenlong. We have no idea if the same or multiple Shenlongs have launched on the four known missions. No official pictures have ever been released, though the image of it to the right was apparently captured in orbit by amateur astronomers shortly after that February launch.

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Two launches by China and SpaceX

8:29 am

Since yesterday there were two more launches by the global rocket industry.

First, China placed a “communication technology experimental satellite” into orbit, its Long March 7A rocket lifting off from its coastal Wenchang spaceport. No other information was provided.

Artist's rendering of Starfall provided during today's live steam
Artist’s rendering of Starfall provided during today’s live steam

Next, SpaceX launched in the early morning the first demo mission for its Starfall recoverable capsule, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida. The company has released little information about this project, including not showing the deployment or splashdown of Starfall in the launch broadcast. Its short description of Starfall during the live stream made it sound very similar to Varda’s recoverable capsule, though larger. According to Wikipedia,

Starfall has a circular, disk-shaped form measuring 10′ in diameter and 2′ 6″ in height. Its empty mass is 2,100 kg (4,600 lb). Starfall carries up to 1,000 kilograms of payload in a volume of 2.5 by 0.5 meters and a total mass of about 3,100 kilograms. The vehicle consists of a top plate with maneuvering thrusters and a heat shield that jettisons before a parachute assisted splashdown. Starfall reaches orbit as a payload on Falcon 9 or Starship. The design focuses on precision delivery to specific locations, supporting rapid delivery for critical cargo.

The company has at this time provided no information about the results of this demo mission.

The rocket’s two fairings completed their 24th and 36th flights respectively. The first stage (B1078) completed its 29th flight (29 days after its previous mission), landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic. With this flight this booster moved past the space shuttle Columbia into a seventh place tie in the rankings for the most reused launch vehicle:

39 Discovery space shuttle
35 Falcon 9 booster B1067
34 Falcon 9 booster B1071
33 Atlantis space shuttle
33 Falcon 9 booster B1063
31 Falcon 9 booster B1069
29 Falcon 9 booster B1077
29 Falcon 9 booster B1078
28 Columbia space shuttle

Sources here and here.

The leaders in the 2026 launch race:

75 SpaceX
41 China
9 Rocket Lab (plus two suborbital HASTE launches)
8 Russia

For the third straight year SpaceX leads the entire world combined in total launches, 75 to 70.

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Canada’s second proposed spaceport opens first rocket factory

9:03 am

Proposed Canadian spaceports
Proposed Canadian spaceports

The Canadian rocket startup Nordspace, which also hopes to operate the Atlantic Spaceport in Newfoundland, last week announced the opening of a new headquarters where it hopes to begin building its smallsat Tundra rockets.

The 60,000 square foot advanced manufacturing campus is dedicated to the production of the company’s light and medium-lift orbital launch vehicles alongside its space systems division, and represents a 10x expansion over NordSpace’s previous headquarters.

In reading between the lines of the press release, it appears this facility is mostly the company’s administrative and operations headquarters, though it is large enough to assembly two Tundra smallsat rockets at the same time, designed to put about three times more payload into orbit than Rocket Lab’s very successful Electron rocket.

Unlike Spaceport Nova Scotia, which was first proposed more than a decade ago and after years of struggle was leased in March by the Canadian government for $200 million, Nordspace has only been around since 2024 and has received a relatively small grant from the government, some portion of a $8.3 million program to support three Canadian rocket startups.

With both spaceports, there has been a lot of blarney spouted. Thus, separating the sizzle from the steak is difficult. No launch dates for Tundra have been provided, though the company says it has purchased the land for an even larger manufacturing facility, though once again it provides no timetables.

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