Tag: competition

Review of SpaceX’s 2026 Superheavy/Starship test flights

11:22 am

Link here. The article begins by reviewing the work SpaceX is doing at both Boca Chica in Texas and Cape Canaveral in Florida. In the end, the company is aiming to have two Starship launchpads at Boca Chica and three launchpads in Florida, with both locations have extensive manufacturing facilities capable of building ships and boosters almost continually.

It then provides a nice review of all five Superheavy/Starship test flights that took place in 2025, a review that makes it very clear how much was accomplished, and indicates the possibilities for ’26. If SpaceX could manage almost one flight every two and a half months last year, despite two test stand explosions, the odds are excellent it will exceed that pace this year.

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SpaceX launches 29 more Starlink satellites, plus a review of its Falcon 9 first stage fleet

12:10 am

The beat goes on: SpaceX tonight successfully launched another 29 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

This was SpaceX’s second launch in 2026. At this moment the company is the only one to have launched anything this year.

The rocket’s first stage was on its first flight, landing successfully on a drone ship in the Atlantic. As new boosters are now introduced so rarely, I decided to look back at how many new stages SpaceX has been introducing each year to get a sense of the size of its fleet. The rough chart below is based on the data on this Wikipedia page. It begins in 2018 because that is when SpaceX introduced the Block 5 version of the stage that it still uses, and says is designed to do as many as 40 flights.

New stages introduced each year:
—————————————–
2018: 6 (all now deactivated or expended)
2019: 7 (all now deactivated or expended)
2020: 4 (all now deactivated or expended)
2021: 3
2022: 7 (5 deactivated or expended)
2023: 9 (5 deactivated or expended)
2024: 9 (3 deactivated or expended)
2025: 8

According to that webpage, SpaceX has approximately 25 active stages in its fleet. The numbers above suggest the company has been increasing the size of its fleet steadily. In fact, since 2022 it appears the company has added 23 stages to the fleet. In 2025 it appears it added a new stage about every 20 launches.

This estimate is rough and is almost certainly not precisely accurate. For example, several stages listed as active have flown only once, or have not flown in awhile.

Nonetheless, this rough count helps explain how SpaceX can launch so frequently. It now has a robust fleet of Falcon 9 boosters to draw on, and it is growing that fleet to meet its needs. All it needs to do is make sure it can manufacture enough upper stages and satellites to fill its launch manifest.

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SpaceX completes first launch in 2026

12:36 am

The beat goes on! SpaceX tonight successfully placed an Italian Earth observation satellite into orbit, its Falcon 9 lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base.

The satellite’s data will be used by Italy for both military and civil purposes. The rocket’s first stage completed its 21st flight, landing back at Vandenberg. The two fairings completed their 2nd and 23rd flights respectively.

At this moment, SpaceX has the only launch in 2026.

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SpaceX doing trial runs of specialized barge for transporting Starship/Superheavy from Boca Chica to Florida

9:32 am

SpaceX has now confirmed that it is doing trial runs of a barge specifically designed for transporting Starship/Superheavy from the manufacturing facility in Boca Chica to its Florida launchpads.

[SpaceX’s Vice President of Launch, Kiko] Dontchev also clarified that both the Super Heavy booster and Starship upper stage would be tilted to a horizontal position for maritime transit, in response to an artist’s rendering of a Starship traveling vertically aboard a vessel. “Initial deliveries are a single booster or ship per trip, with the plan to move to multiple vehicles per transit sooner than later,” he wrote. “You’ll thank me later.”

These barge trials, combined with the fact that SpaceX has already shipped significant Starship/Superheavy components to Florida even as it builds rocket manufacturing facility there, strongly suggest the first Florida launches are not too far in the future, possibly even this year.

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ESA funds Danish lunar orbiter

9:16 am

The European Space Agency (ESA) has agreed to fund the first Danish-built interplanetary probe, a smallsat lunar orbiter dubbed Mani that will launch in ’29 and map the Moon’s surface.

The Máni mission is a lunar mission that will use a satellite to map the Moon’s surface with high-resolution images and create detailed 3D maps. The goal is to make it safer for astronauts and lunar rovers to land and move around on the Moon. The satellite will orbit the Moon’s north and south poles, which are key areas for future human missions.

The mission will also map how light reflects from areas on the Moon that are used to study Earth’s ability to reflect sunlight onto the lunar surface – the so-called earthshine. This knowledge could improve our understanding of how Earth’s climate will evolve.

The University of Copenhagen leads the mission and is responsible for the mission’s Science Operations Center, which will plan which areas to map and analyze the vast number of images generated.[emphasis mine]

I love how this European press release about a lunar orbiter somehow makes its most important mission studying climate change on Earth. Utterly idiotic.

Mani will use the changing shadows to create detailed topographic maps. As it is unlikely it will be capable of providing better data than produced over the past sixteen years by Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), this mission is mostly an engineering demo by Denmark and the Danish startup, Space Inventor, that is building the satellite for a consortium of universities. If successful the satellite will possibly be able to replace LRO (which is going to fail sooner or later), and provide data on any lunar surface changes that occur in the future.

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SpaceX to do a major orbital reconfiguration of its Starlink constellation

9:03 am

According to a X post yesterday by Michael Nicholls, SpaceX’s Starlink engineering vice-president, the company over the next year will be lowering the orbits of more than 4,000 satellites in its Starlink constellation, in order to allow the company to more quickly de-orbit them if they fail.

We are lowering all Starlink satellites orbiting at ~550 km to ~480 km (~4400 satellites) over the course of 2026. The shell lowering is being tightly coordinated with other operators, regulators, and USSPACECOM.

Lowering the satellites results in condensing Starlink orbits, and will increase space safety in several ways. As solar mininum approaches, atmospheric density decreases which means the ballistic decay time at any given altitude increases – lowering will mean a >80% reduction in ballistic decay time in solar minimum, or 4+ years reduced to a few months. Correspondingly, the number of debris objects and planned satellite constellations is significantly lower below 500 km, reducing the aggregate likelihood of collision.

Nicholls notes that it presently has only two dead satellites in the present fleet of 9,000 satellites, but decided to do this move regardless, as it also apparently will reduce collision risks with other satellites as well.

Not surprisingly, China’s state-run press and our anti-capitalism propaganda press immediately tried to give China credit for this change, while lambasting SpaceX. That China is contributing to the risk of collision with its own multiple giant satellite constellations and is doing nothing on its own is apparently irrelevant to both. Our nice of them.

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The global launch industry in 2025: The real space race is between SpaceX and China

8:01 am

In 2025 the worldwide revolution in rocketry that began about a decade ago continued. Across the globe new private commercial rocket companies are forming, not just in the United States. And across the globe, the three-quarters-of-a century domination by government space agencies is receding, though those agencies are right now pushing back with all their might to protect their turf.

Dominating this revolution in 2025 in every way possible however were two entities, one a private American company and the second a communist nation attempting to imitate capitalism. The former is SpaceX, accomplishing more in this single year than whole nations and even the whole globe had managed in any year since the launch of Sputnik. The latter is China, which in 2025 became a true space power, its achievements matching and even exceeding anything done by either the U.S. or the Soviet Union for most of the space age.
» Read more

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Turkey and Somalia confirm spaceport plans

9:14 am

Somalia

In a public meeting of the presidents of Turkey and Somalia in Istanbul yesterday, Turkish President Recep Erdogan confirmed that Turkey has begun construction of a spaceport in Somalia.

Astrophysicist Umut Yildiz said the project, announced by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and detailed by Industry and Technology Minister Mehmet Fatih Kacir, offers Türkiye significant geographic and technological opportunities.

…President Erdogan said the first phase of the three-stage project has been completed and construction has begun under the Türkiye Space Agency, adding that the goal is to establish significant infrastructure in space launch and satellite technologies.

Minister Kacir said the spaceport will become a strategic, revenue-generating infrastructure for Türkiye through growing commercial satellite launch services, testing activities and integration processes, while also contributing to Somalia’s development.

This spaceport plan had first been revealed by Turkish officials two weeks ago, but yesterday’s press conference now makes it official.

No press release from Turkey’s state-run press however revealed the spaceport’s precise location in Somalia. Nor is it confirmed that any actual construction has begun. I suspect it will be a very long time before anything actually launches from the site.

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Space Force requests proposals for new Vandenberg launchpad for heavy and super-heavy rockets

8:07 am

Vandenberg Space Force Base

The Space Force on December 29, 2025 released a request for information (RFI) from the private sector for building a new launchpad at the southern-most tip of Vandenberg Space Force Base, for use by “new” heavy and super-heavy rockets.

The Space Force said it prefers to use the site for new vehicles rather than ones that already have launch sites at Vandenberg, to “increase launch diversity” at the base. The service is also interested in vehicles with “unique capabilities,” such as point-to-point transportation or the ability to return payloads.

The RFI emphasizes the need for “technically mature” vehicles capable of operating from SLC-14 within five years of signing a lease agreement. Companies must also provide details about their operations to address safety concerns and minimize impacts on other launch operators at the base.

You can read the actual RFI here. The map to the right, taken from the RFI and annotated to post here, labels the area under consideration as “Sudden Flats”. SpaceX’s two launchpads are indicated, with SLC-6 presently under development.

Though the description of the request appears to favor SpaceX, it could also apply to Blue Origin’s New Glenn as well as the company’s proposed larger versions of that rocket.

The request asks for proposals within 30 days.

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China launches two satellites for “new technology verification for space target detection”

7:55 pm

China today successfully launched two technology test satellites designed to do “space target detection”, its Long March 7A rocket lifting off from its coastal Wenchang spaceport.

China’s state-run press provided no other information. It also appears the drop zones for the rocket’s lower stages were once again in Philippino waters, requiring that government to warn its citizens to avoid those zones and subsequent any rocket debris.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

168 SpaceX
90 China (a new record)
18 Rocket Lab
17 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 168 to 150.

At this moment no other launches are scheduled before the end of the year, thus closing out the 2025 year in rocketry. I will publish my annual global report in the next few days. Stay tuned.

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The up and down tale of two rocket startups, Vector and Phantom

11:01 am

Jim Cantrell and cars
Jim Cantrell at Vector in 2017, shown in front of
one of his side businesses, fixing and refurbishing race
cars and rare luxury sports cars (located then at Vector).

The tales of rocket startups are often fraught with ups and downs of all kinds, often traveling in circles that no one can ever predict. This is one such tale.

In the mid-2010s there was a rocket startup called Vector, based here in Tucson, founded by a guy named Jim Cantrell. At that time Cantrell pushed the company in the style of Elon Musk, going very public for publicity and to raise investment capital.

He was remarkable successful at both. Unfortunately, his engineers were not as successful at engine building. After years of effort they all realized that their rocket engines were under-powered, and wouldn’t be able to get the rocket into orbit. In 2019 the company’s biggest investor backed out, Cantrell left the company, and new owners took over, hoping to rebuild.

Flash forward to 2021, and Jim Cantrell has reappeared with a new rocket company, Phantom Space, also based in Tucson, raising $6 million in seed capital. In the next four years he obtained a small development contract from NASA, completed two more investment rounds raising first $22 million and then around $37 million, and began development of a new orbital rocket, dubbed Daytona. The company also began work on its own small satellite constellation, PhantomCloud (more on this later).

As for Vector, there was little to report during those four years. The only update said the company was buying engines from the rocket engine startup Ursa Major, the same company Phantom was using.

It is now the end of 2025, and the fate of these two companies has once again intertwined, in a most ironic manner. Last week I learned from Jim Cantrell that Vector had closed shop, and that its last remaining assets, some of which Cantrell himself had helped develop when he headed Vector, had been bought by Phantom. This includes several unused rocket stages, the vertical rocket test stands, a lot of computers, and hardware.
» Read more

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European Space Agency hacked

8:43 am

It appears some of the European Space Agency’s (ESA) servers have been hacked, with some of its internal data placed for sale on the web.

On 26 December, reports began to emerge on X claiming that ESA had suffered a significant data breach, with a hacker using the alias “888” offering more than 200 gigabytes of data for sale. According to the hacker’s listing, the allegedly compromised data included source code for proprietary software, sensitive project documentation, API tokens, and hardcoded credentials.

ESA has since issued a statement claiming the data breach was limited, but according to information posted on X, the breach included “Confidential internal documents (Airbus Defence & Space, Thales Alenia Space)” and “sensitive technical information related to space programs.”

I wouldn’t be surprised if China is bidding for this information right now. Then again, Europe’s space effort is so unimpressive compared to China that China might not see the information worth much.

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Russia’s early warning satellite constellation is apparently no longer functioning

8:32 am

The satellites in Russia’s constellation for giving its military early warning of missile attacks, dubbed EKS, have been one-by-one failing in recent years, and it now appears the last one has now experienced a malfunction as well.

After the launch of the 6th Tundra satellite in 2022, the Russian military seemingly gave up on the effort to deploy the EKS early warning constellation or, possibly, the industry was simply unable to build new satellites due to technical problems associated with the Western sanctions and/or financial problems. No fresh satellites were launched into the network in the following three years, while, according to an analyst of the Russian strategic nuclear forces Pavel Podvig, the orbital tracking indicated that from March 2025 to December of the same year, the number of operational Tundra satellites fell from three to just one, possibly as a result of in-orbit failures.

…As of December 2025, Kosmos-2552 (EKS-5) was the only satellite within the EKS system which did not show a clear sign of failure, according to Podvig, but the spacecraft did miss a maneuver expected in November 2025, based on the usual pattern of its detectable orbit adjustments.

None of this is a surprise. Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine has not only isolated the country, it has crippled it in numerous ways, both financially and technologically. It no longer has access to many western high tech components it had relied on, and the loss of all its international launch customers has left its rocket industry devoid of hard currency.

Thus, when Russia makes any grandiose claims about its future space plans, it is wise to harbor great doubts.

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China launches Earth mapping satellite

8:20 am

China yesterday successfully placed what it called a “geographic mapping” satellite, its Long March 4B rocket lifting off from its Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China.

Its state-run press provided no additional information about the satellite, nor did it provide any information about where the rocket’s lower stages, using very toxic hypergolic fuels, crashed inside China.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

168 SpaceX
89 China (a new record)
18 Rocket Lab
17 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 168 to 149.

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SpaceX pulls Starlink service from Papua New Guinea

9:23 am

SpaceX has now withdrawn the Starlink services it informally had provided customers in Papua New Guinea after a volcano eruption in 2021 due to regulatory demands by the government there.

It’s been two and a half years since a volcano eruption tore apart Tonga’s underwater internet cables, and a sympathetic Kiwi MP pleaded to Elon Musk for help on their behalf. Musk, CEO of SpaceX, would answer Shane Reti’s call, offering his Starlink technology in aid of their reconnection to the world.

Starlink’s Pacific debut came with limited trials in American-owned Guam and the Northern Marianas, followed by the Cooks in April 2021. But for the wider Pacific community, its deployment in Tonga captured hearts and minds. The service, provided by a special satellite network, has been hailed as “transformational” in numerous island nations, broadening internet coverage to remote areas, some for the first time.

That is, unless, you’re in Papua New Guinea. Starlink’s attempts to gain licensing in PNG have been tied up since December 2023, with the Ombudsman Commission challenging the government over Starlink’s reliability. The Commission blocked licensing efforts in February 2024, and have argued that existing regulations may not be adequate to manage potential risks to public interest and safety.

In-fighting within Papua New Guinea’s government continues to block Starlink license approval, so it appears SpaceX has decided the best way to get a positive decision is to walk away, hoping the ensuing pressure from its customers might force action from the government.

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ESA cancels call for commercial cargo services to ISS

9:14 am

European Space Agency logo

In what might be a larger decision by the European Space Agency (ESA) to pull back from support to ISS, the agency has cancelled a call for proposals that asked private commercial startups to provide cargo to ISS.

On 3 October, ESA published a call for proposals under its CSOC Cargo Commercially Procured Offset (3CPO) initiative, seeking commercial transport services to the ISS to deliver between 4,900 and 5,000 kilograms of pressurised cargo to the orbiting laboratory. According to the call, the mission was intended to act as a “strategic offset’ to secure flight opportunities for ESA astronauts. It did, however, stipulate that the prospective procurement would only proceed if member states agreed to fund the initiative at the agency’s Ministerial Council meeting on 26 and 27 November 2025.

Following the late November meeting, ESA announced that member states had “agreed to implement short-term actions to guarantee European astronauts’ access to the International Space Station until its planned end of exploitation in 2030.” While this initially appeared to signal a favourable decision on the 3CPO initiative, the agency formally cancelled the call on 17 December, citing “the implementation of programmatic adjustments.”

What makes me speculate that this decision is part of a larger strategy to pull back from ISS is based on other statements by ESA officials cited in the article. It appears ESA is also delaying the mission of one astronaut to ISS that had originally been planned for ’26, possibly by as much as two years.

Though that official said ESA had fully funded its commitments to ISS at its recently concluded ministerial council meetings, both of the above decisions suggest it is shifting its support elsewhere. It could very well be that ESA is beginning the process of transferring its support from ISS to the new commercial private stations, most especially Starlab, which it already has signed a partnership agreement. By delaying funding to ISS, it reserves that money for later use at the new stations.

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Another American orbital capsule company turns to Australia for a landing spot

11:38 am

Proposed Australian spaceports
Australian spaceports: operating (red dot) and proposed (red “X”)
Click for original image.

The American orbital capsule company Lux Aeterna has now signed a deal with the Australian spaceport startup Southern Launch to allow its capsules to land at its Koonibba Test Range in southern Australia.

Under the agreement, two Lux Aeterna Delphi satellites will return to the Koonibba Test Range with Southern Launch. The first mission is targeted to return in 2027.

Lux Aeterna, based in Denver, Colorado, USA, is developing a reusable satellite platform designed to operate in Low Earth Orbit and support defense, intelligence, and commercial missions such as technology demonstrations, hypersonic and materials testing, in-orbit servicing, and in-space manufacturing. The Delphi platform and its core components are engineered to withstand the thermal and structural demands of atmospheric re-entry, enabling routine return and recovery of both the satellite bus and payload to support expedited technology development.

…Under the partnership, Southern Launch will provide end‑to‑end services for each orbital re-entry, including regulatory approvals, range operations, air and maritime coordination, and recovery operations.

This is the second American orbital capsule company to sign with Southern Launch. Varda was the first, and it did so because red tape in the U.S. made use of an American drop zone impractical. It appears Lux Aeterna has come to the same conclusion, and thus went to Australia instead.

This is an issue that needs to be addressed by the Trump administration. It is absurd that red tape is forcing American capsules to land in another country on the other side of the globe.

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Isar ready for second launch attempt

11:26 am

Map of spaceports surrounding Norwegian Sea
Spaceports surrounding the Norwegian Sea

In a press release earlier this week, the German rocket startup Isar Aerospace announced that it has successfully completed static fire tests of both stages of its Spectrum rocket, and is now prepared for a second attempt to reach orbit, nine months after the first attempt failed seconds after liftoff.

Though its press release made no mention of a launch date, rocketlaunch.live is listing that attempt for January 13, 2026, taking place at Norway’s Andoya spaceport.

If successfully, the launch will achieve a number of milestones. First, Isar will be the first German rocket company ever to launch a rocket into orbit. Germany’s government has for decades been a partner in Arianespace, the commercial arm of the European Space Agency, but no private company has ever built and launched its own rocket.

Isar’s success will also beat out the German startup Rocket Factory Augsburg and Spanish startup PLD, both of which are getting close to a first launch as well.

Second, the launch from Andoya will make that spaceport the first in Europe to place a satellite into orbit, despite coming to this commercial spaceport competition years after two of Great Britain’s proposed spaceports in northern Scotland. While Norway’s government has greased the rails, removing red tape to allow Andoya to become operational quickly (and thus attracting rocket startups like Isar, Firefly, and Astrobotic), Great Britain’s red tape has delayed its spaceports for years, while putting one rocket company, Virgin Orbit, out of business.

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Russia launches more than fifty satellites

11:03 am

Russia today successfully launched more than fifty satellites, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from its Vostochny spaceport in far eastern Russia.

The main payloads were two Russian Earth imaging satellites, both dubbed Aist-2T

In addition to the launch of the Aist-2T pair, the same Soyuz-2-1b rocket was also booked to carry 50 dual-purpose secondary payloads, ranging from light-weight experimental satellites down to an assortment of educational cubesats and a small carrier platform, itself designed to release the tiniest satellites known as pikosats. A total of 33 payloads were to be deployed from 17 launch containers provided by Moscow-based Aerospeis Kapital.

The most notable secondary payloads on the mission were two Marafon-IoT experimental satellites, developed at ISS Reshetnev and intended for paving the way to the so-called Internet-of-Things satellite system, however, by the time they reached the launch pad, the main project was facing cancellation due shrinking Russian space budget.

The most significant foreign payload on the Aist-2T mission was a trio of Iranian dual-purpose satellites all intended for remote-sensing of the Earth’s surface. Other small foreign payloads were ordered by various institutions in Montenegro, Kuwait, Qatar, Ecuador and Belarus. [emphasis mine]

Russia continues to show an inability to get anything of substance into orbit due to a lack of capital, caused by Putin’s policies of squelching competition and invading other countries.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

168 SpaceX
88 China (a new record)
18 Rocket Lab
17 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 168 to 148.

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China launches weather satellite

8:35 pm

China today (December 27 in China) successfully placed a new Fengyun-4 satellite into orbit, its Long March 3B rocket lifting off from its Xinchang spaceport in southwest China.

China’s state-run press provided no information about where the rocket’s lower stages and four strap-on boosters, all using very toxic hypergolic fuels, crashed inside China. This Fengyun-4 satellite is the third in a new constellation of seven upgraded weather satellites.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

168 SpaceX
88 China (a new record)
18 Rocket Lab
16 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 168 to 147.

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Former ULA CEO Tory Bruno now working for Blue Origin

11:05 am

In a tweet on X, Blue Origin today announced that former ULA CEO Tory Bruno is now working for them, acting as president for its “newly formed National Security Group.”

Blue Origin’s CEO, David Limp, quickly chimed in with his own tweet, endorsing the hire.

My guess is that Limp felt Blue Origin needed someone with experience dealing with the military, and Bruno brings that capability, having managed ULA’s military launch contracts for years. It also means Blue Origin is very serious about grabbing a larger market share of those launches once its New Glenn rocket begins launching regularly.

I also wonder if Bruno grew tired of the culture at ULA, which has appeared resistant to building reusable rockets. Bruno sold Vulcan initially with the idea of quickly upgrading it to recover its engines for reuse, but by all signs the company has been very unenthusiastic about the idea. (The idea itself might not be viable, but overall ULA has shown no interest in developing a reusable rocket of any sort.) Bruno might have decided he’d rather work with a company enthused by reusability, especially as this is the future. Once ULA completes its large Amazon Leo launch contract it faces a bleak future, with many newer cheaper reusable rockets coming on line.

It could also be that Bruno was made an offer he couldn’t refuse. Money is always a powerful incentive.

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Japanese bank invests in Starlab

9:41 am

Starlab design in 2025
The Starlab design in 2025. Click
for original image.

The consortium building the Starlab space station today announced that the Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank of Japan has invested in the project.

Through this investment, SuMi TRUST Bank will support Starlab’s efforts to develop and commercialize space station technologies, while exploring opportunities for collaboration that contribute to the advancement of space-related industries and broader industrial development in Japan and globally.

The press release provided no other information, other than this boilerplate PR jargon. The amount invested was not mentioned.

Regardless, the investment tells us two things: First, Starlab has now raised more than $400 million in investment capital, and appears in a solid position to begin work on its large single module station to be launched on Starship.

Second, the investment in this American-based space project by this Japanese bank speaks volumes about the sad state of Japan’s own commercial space industry. Other than the lunar lander Ispace, Japan has seen little success from any other major rocket startups. One rocket startup, Interstellar, has obtained some investment capital, but the development of its rocket seemingly stopped for the past five years. Another, Space One, has had one launch failure. And though Honda has completed a successful vertical take-off and landing of a small rocket prototype, it doesn’t expect to attempt an orbital launch until 2030.

Meanwhile, the two rockets owned by Japan’s space agency JAXA, the H3 and Epsilon, are grounded because of launch failures.

It appears this bank believes it is more likely to earn profits from this American project than from these other Japanese space efforts.

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The SpaceX alumni that are reshaping the space industry

10:16 am

Link here. The article provides a very comprehensive list of the many former SpaceX employees who have left SpaceX to form their own companies, most of which in space or related industries, raising $3 billion in private investment capital.

The list includes a lot of very small operations doing work on the periphery, such as in the health industry or software for a variety of industries, not just space. It also includes some new major space players, such as the orbital tug company Impulse, and the recoverable capsule company Varda.

For some reason the article refers to this new generation of space entrepreneurs as the “SpaceX Mafia”, as if they are teaming up like mobsters to eliminate any competition. This is beyond false. Instead, they are the epitome of competition and the American dream, each forming their own company to push new ideas.

Take a look. It provides a nice and very hopeful overview of the future.

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Avio wins launch contract from Taiwan to launch four satellites

10:01 am

The Italian rocket company Avio has won a $81 million launch contract from Taiwan’s space agency TASA to use its Vega-C rocket to launch four Earth observation satellites.

FORMOSAT-8 will be a constellation of six high-resolution optical Earth observation satellites. The first was launched aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket in November. The next, FORMOSAT-8B, which does not yet have a publicly announced launch services provider, is, according to TASA, slated for launch in December 2026. The FORMOSAT-9 constellation will be made up of two synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellites, which are expected to be launched in 2028 and 2030, respectively.

All four satellites will be launched aboard Vega C rockets from the Guiana Space Centre in French Guiana.

It is not clear if this contract involves four separate launches, or two (one for Formosat-8A and B, and a second for Formosat-9A and B). It is also not clear if this contract is one of the two launch contracts Avio had previously announced, without revealing the customers.

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Russia launches classified weather satellite

9:47 am

Russia today successfully placed a long delayed first satellite in a new series of weather radar satellites, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from the Plesetsk spaceport in northeast Russia.

The satellite, Obzor-R1, was originally proposed in 2015 for launch in 2019. It was placed in a polar orbit, so the rocket’s lower stages all landed in the oceans north of Russia.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

168 SpaceX
86 China
18 Rocket Lab
16 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 168 to 145.

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Next Starship/Superheavy launch in March?

9:17 am

According to this detailed update on SpaceX’s work at Boca Chica by NASASpaceflight.com, we should expect the next orbital test flight of Starship/Superheavy some time in March 2026.

As far as the launch date for this first flight of Block 3, sources point to March as the most likely viable timeframe. This launch will mark numerous firsts, from the vehicle, its Raptor 3 engines, and the first use of the upgraded Pad 2 architecture that will be mirrored at Pad 1, along with 39A and SLC-37 on the East Coast.

Block 3 refers to a major upgrade in Starship, which will fly prototype #39. Meanwhile, work getting Superheavy prototype #19 prepped has moved fast, following the loss of #18 from an explosion during ground fueling tests.

Recent observations show significant milestones: after welding the liquid oxygen (LOX) tank to the engine section (including pre-installed landing tanks and transfer tube), teams added methane tank barrels and the forward dome with its integrated hot staging ring. By December 20, all barrel sections were delivered and stacked, achieving this in just 25 days from November 25 — half the 42 days required for Booster 17, the final Version 1 booster.

The report also said that a February launch is a possibility, but is less likely.

Meanwhile, news outlets are reporting that the Trump administration is considering giving SpaceX about 775 acres in a wildlife preserve adjacent to Starbase in exchange for 692 acres SpaceX owns elsewhere. If confirmed, this deal would be similar to the land swap Texas had wished to do with SpaceX the company scrapped last year.

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Italian rocket company Avio wins two launch contracts valued at $117 million total

9:07 am

Last week the Italian rocket company Avio announced that it has signed launch contracts for its Vega-C rocket with two different unnamed satellite customers, the value of the contracts equaling $117 million total.

The satellites to be launched will be used for Earth observation, environmental monitoring and resource management purposes for civil and scientific applications, providing high-resolution imagery as well as best-in-class geolocation accuracy. The passengers will feature a mass ranging from more than 400 to more than 1,000 kilograms and will be deployed into a ~500 km Sun-synchronous orbit.

These contracts totally secure over EUR 100 million for launch services to be scheduled between 2028 and 2031.

Though the customers remain unnamed, the Avio release indicated that one was from Europe and the other was non-European. That latter contract deal could be linked to Avio’s announcement at about the same time that it is spending $500 million to build a rocket facility in Virginia. If the non-European customer was American and its satellites were for the Pentagon, having a U.S.-based facility made that contract award far more likely.

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India launches AST SpaceMobile’s sixth Bluebird satellite

8:39 pm

India’s space agency ISRO today (December 24 in India) successfully launched AST SpaceMobile’s sixth Bluebird satellite into orbit, its Bahubali rocket (LVM3) lifting off from its Sriharikota spaceport on India’s eastern coast.

This Bluebird is an upgrade from the first five satellites, providing ten times the bandwidth. The constellation acts as satellite cell towers for smart phones. These Bluebird satellites have been the largest in size ever launched, and this satellite will break their previous records. It is also the heaviest satellite India’s Bahubali rocket has ever put in orbit, on its sixth launch.

For India, this is its fourth launch in 2025. The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

168 SpaceX
86 China
18 Rocket Lab
15 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 168 to 144.

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Starlink added a million new customers in just the past month

9:58 am

According to a tweet by SpaceX yesterday, Starlink now has nine million active customers in 155 countries worldwide.

These numbers tell us the company is now getting more than a billion dollars per month in revenues, based on what it charges for its various plans. What make the numbers even more startling is how fast they are growing.

In a similar post from November 5, SpaceX said Starlink had 8 million customers, meaning that its customer base has expanded at a rate of more than 20,000 per day since that date.

At more than billion dollars per month, SpaceX essentially has about half the annual revenue of NASA, which it can use far more efficiently. And those numbers will only increase in the coming years, as the company opens up new markets worldwide and begins launching its upgraded Starlink satellites with Starship.

It still seems to me puzzling why, with these numbers, Musk is considering making the company public this coming summer. Though that move would bring in a gigantic amount of new investment capital from the stock sale, it would also subject the company to serious government regulation as a publicly-traded company. The Starlink revenue can only grow. Why add government interference when you can live without it?

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