Tag: competition

Rocket Factory Augsburg submits license application for a Saxavord launch window opening on July 1, 2026

8:30 am

Proposed or active spaceports in North Europe
Proposed or active spaceports in North Europe

The German rocket startup Rocket Factory Augsburg has now submitted a new marine license application to allow it to attempt the first launch of its RFA-1 rocket from the Saxavord spaceport on the Shetland Islands in Scotland, with a launch window opening on July 1, 2026.

Rocket Factory had hoped to do this launch in 2024, but lost the first stage mere weeks before launch when it exploded during a final static fire test on the launchpad. Since then the company has undergone a management shake-up and made major changes to operations and its rocket.

To do this launch, however, it needs a new launch license, and that is a major problem. The company’s announcement is filled with numerous vague qualifiers, as it knows getting the bureaucracies in the United Kingdom to move quickly in this matter is nigh on impossible.

This is a legally required step for planning, and a good sign of how far we’ve come – but it’s not a launch date just yet. We applied for this window because we’re working hard to be ready – and we’re getting closer every day.

So: the application means we’re entering a new phase of preparation. Still, as with any first-ever launch, there are uncertainties, and the schedule may evolve. Further specific details around launch timing will be released through the appropriate channels closer to the time. We’ll keep you posted!

In other words, the company will not be surprised if it doesn’t get its license in time for July, and is prepared for delays.

Another German rocket startup, Isar Aerospace, has been trying to launch its Spectrum rocket from Norway’s Andoya spaceport since January, with the launch scrubbed several times due to technical issues. Right now the launch its tentatively scheduled for May, which means the race to achieve the first orbital launch from Europe is tightening considerably.

If I had to place a bet, my money would be on Isar, not Rocket Factory, and the reason would be because I truly doubt the British bureaucracy will issue a license on time. Its track record has been abysmal, sometimes taking years to give an okay. In this case it might not take that long, since Saxavord has gotten all its own permits already (after years of waiting) but no one should be confident it will act with speed. And it is clear that the people at Rocket Factory are not.

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California Coastal Commission settles SpaceX lawsuit by apologizing and conceding all points

8:01 am

Wants to be a dictator
Wanted to be a dictator; ended up being
a patsy.

SpaceX yesterday settled its lawsuit [pdf] with the California Coastal Commission when the commission agreed to apologize to the company and agree it has no authority to regulate any SpaceX launches at Vandenberg Space Force Base.

The Commission agrees that it may not consider irrelevant factors in performing its function and specifically agrees that it will not take into account the perceived political beliefs, political speech, or labor practices of SpaceX or its officers in considering any regulatory action concerning SpaceX. The Commission acknowledges that Commissioners made statements, including during their October 10, 2024, hearing on the Base’s Falcon 9 launch program, that showed political bias against SpaceX and its CEO and were improper. The Commission apologizes for those statements, as set forth in the signed letter attached as Exhibit C.

The commission also agreed that it has no authority to regulate SpaceX’s launch rate at its launchpads at Vandenberg, and will never again attempt to interfere with these operations.

The SpaceX lawsuit stemmed from the comments made by the commissioners at a meeting in October 2024 when then voted against the military’s plan to allow SpaceX to increase its launch rate at Vandenberg spaceport to up to 50 launches per year. In those comments, the commissioners made it clear that the main reason they were voting against the motion was because they were offended by Elon Musk and his political positions, not because the company was doing anything wrong.

While the settlement does not restrict the commission’s right to regulate off-base actions, or other aspects under its statutory authority, this settlement is a complete victory for SpaceX. The commission members were probably made aware that if they didn’t back down completely, they would be personally liable for a great deal of damages. As a result of this settlement, they are absolved of all liabilities.

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FAA to begin taxing launches by payload weight

8:44 am

FAA logo

As per the provisions in last year’s reconciliation budget bill (dubbed for propaganda reasons by Trump the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”), the FAA was authorized to begin charging fees (another word for taxes) on the mass of each launch payload. The agency last week announced it is now doing so.

More information here.

For 2026, that fee is 25 cents per pound of payload, capped at $30,000 per launch or reentry. The fees would fund work on improving integration of launches and reentries into the national airspace system directed by an FAA reauthorization act in 2024.

Though the amount per launch is small compared to the cost of the launch itself, this new tax is expected to provide ample funds to allow the FAA to expand its licensing operations to meet the growing launch industry. The real challenge will be whether the bureaucracy can stay focused on its main task of serving the public, or use the money to build a new bureaucratic empire aimed at garnering power over the private sector. History suggests we should be pessimistic, and expect the latter.

In the meantime, rocket companies are simply going to apply this new tax to the makers of their payloads, who in turn will have their customers pay the cost.

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ULA launches 29 Leo satellites

8:29 am

ULA last night successfully launched another 29 Amazon Leo satellites into orbit, its Atlas-5 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida.

ULA is in the process of retiring the Atlas-5 rocket. It now has only eight Atlas-5 rockets left in stock, with two reserved for Leo launches and six for Boeing’s Starliner manned capsule (though there is a good chance some if not all of the Starliner launches will be switched to other payloads). Because its Vulcan rocket, intended to replace Atlas-5, is presently grounded, the company appears to be accelerating Atlas-5 launches, with this launch only about 24 days after the previous launch.

With this launch, Amazon now has 270 Leo satellites in orbit, out of the 1,616 it needs to launch by July to meet its FCC license requirement. Because it is not expected to meet that requirement, the company has asked for a time extension, which the FCC is presently considering.

As this was only the third launch by ULA in 2026, the leader board for the 2026 launch race remains unchanged:

50 SpaceX
23 China
8 Russia
6 Rocket Lab

For the third straight year SpaceX continues to lead the entire world combined in total launches, 50 to 43.

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An excellent overview of AST SpaceMobile following the New Glenn launch failure

10:51 am

Link here. For an article in a mainstream media outlet the writing is remarkable in its general accuracy and understanding of the larger context. It is also quite thorough, covering all aspects of AST SpaceMobile’s business model and how it stacks up against its main competitor, SpaceX’s Starlink.

According to the article, the company still hopes to get as many as 45 of its large new Bluebird satellites in orbit by the end of this year, though it admits the New Glenn failure now makes that goal more difficult. As the article notes:

AST SpaceMobile is continuing to manufacture, assemble and test satellites in Midland, and it will soon ship three new BlueBird satellites for launch on a yet-to-be-announced rocket. [emphasis mine]

That unnamed rocket is likely the Falcon 9, but at some point AST must find other rockets, as there is likely a limit to how many launches SpaceX can provide. Both ULA’s Vulcan rocket and Blue Origin’s New Glenn are both presently grounded because of launch failures, and other than SpaceX’s Falcon-9 and Falcon Heavy they are the only American rockets capable of launching the Bluebirds. It is also doubtful AST can buy flights on Europe’s Ariane-6 rocket. Though that rocket has had trouble garnering customers because of its high cost, its operator, the European Space Agency’s (ESA) commercial agency Arianespace, has also been very slow to ramp up operations. Even if AST was willing to pay a premium, Arianespace would likely not be able to fit extra launches into its schedule.

Overall, this situation illustrates a great opportunity. There is a strong demand for rockets from the satellite industry that the present rocket industry — excluding SpaceX — has been unable to meet.

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Starlink returns to Papua New Guinea after court ruling

9:22 am

SpaceX’s Starlink internet service will once again be available in Papua New Guinea after its court this week overturned a ban that had been imposed by a government bureaucracy.

In early 2024, the [Ombudsman] Commission blocked licensing efforts for Starlink, arguing that existing regulations may not be adequate to manage potential risks to public interest and safety.

But in her National Court ruling last week, Judge Susan Purdon-Sully strongly criticised the Ombudsman Commission for its move to halt Starlink’s license process. Finding no breach of PNG’s leadership code, nor evidence of corruption, the judge said the Ombudsman’s concerns were more administrative, meaning its directive to NICTA had been “an unconstitutional exercise of power”.

Meanwhile, the prime minister again urged Starlink to work collaboratively with state-owned Telikom PNG to “ensure a coordinated rollout that complements national infrastructure priorities”.

The article describes in detail several recent natural disasters where the lack of Starlink was a critical component in rescue and repair operations. The country also has large rural areas where Starlink is the only method for reaching the rest of the world quickly. There was thus apparently great political pressure to end this ban.

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Avio makes more from its Vega-C rocket now that Arianespace is out of the picture

9:07 am

According to a report today at Europeanspaceflight.com, the European Space Agency (ESA) paid Arianespace €51.65 million ($60.6 million) for a December 2024 launch using the Vega-C rocket that the Italian company Avio produces.

That flight was one of the last ones managed by Arianespace. In November 2025 ESA completed the transfer of ownership back to Avio, so that the company now manages and sells its own rocket, rather than have a middle-man government agency run things and take a cut.

Since then Avio has won three separate launch contracts, one from Taiwan for $81 million, another from Brazil for $35.6 million, and a third from Airbus for $84.4 million (see here).

Based on these numbers, it appears that Avio is doing much better selling this rocket directly to the market than having Arianespace and ESA run things for it. It is not only generally getting slightly more revenue per launch (about $67 million average compared to $60.6 million under Arianespace), but it is keeping all the profits, rather than having the Arianespace government bureaucracy take a percentage.

These numbers however won’t hold in the coming years. In the U.S. in the next year at least two reusable rockets — Rocket Lab’s Neutron and Stoke Space’s Nova — are coming on line, and will drive these launch prices down. Furthermore, new smallsat rockets being developed in Germany (two), Spain, India (two), South Korea, and Australia should do the same.

At the moment however Avio is benefiting from the present state of the market, though even that advantage is threatened because it has had to delay the next Vega-C launch due to a technical issue.

Regardless, these numbers give us a strong sense of the present competitive launch costs in today’s market, averaging about $60 million per launch. Before SpaceX came along, that price generally exceeded more than $100 million, and often as high as $200 to $500 million. No more. SpaceX has forced competition on the industry, and the result has been a notable drop in price, with more to come.

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Australian rocket startup Gilmour pinpoints cause of first rocket launch failure

8:01 am

Eris rocket launch and failure
Click for video, cued to just before launch. The red
dot marks the launchpad location.

The Australian rocket startup Gilmour Space on April 24, 2026 released the results of its investigation into the launch failure seconds after liftoff of its Eris rocket in July 2025.

Our investigation found that approximately nine seconds after ignition, one of the four first-stage hybrid rocket motors experienced a loss of thrust. A second motor exhibited similar behaviour at around 17 seconds, reducing vehicle performance and bringing the mission to an early end.

Analysis identified two independent failure modes originating from the oxidiser pump subsystem. Electrical and thermal faults were observed in the electric pump motors and associated inverters, including components sourced from an external supplier. We now have a clearer understanding of the underlying causes.

The company hopes to try again later this year, but to do so it will need license approval from Australia’s bureaucracy, and such approvals have not been quick.

Hat tip BtB’s stringer Jay.

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Two space station startups strengthen their positions

11:17 am

The American space stations under development

The startups building the commercial space stations Haven-1 and Starlab this week made deals that will further strengthen their positions both to win future NASA contracts while also making their own operations more functionally viable.

First, Vast, which hopes to launch its Haven-1 single module demonstration station next year and follow it up with its full Haven-2 station (as shown to the right), signed a deal with former NASA astronaut Sunita “Suni” Williams, making her the fifth astronaut to join the company’s astronaut advisory committee.

Former NASA astronaut and U.S. Navy Captain Sunita “Suni” L. Williams has joined Vast as an Astronaut Advisor. She joins Vast’s esteemed group of Astronaut Advisors led by Lead Astronaut Andrew Feustel, including Garrett Reisman, Megan McArthur, and former JAXA astronaut and Vast Japan General Manager Naoko Yamazaki.

It is clear each one of these former government astronauts sees the possibility of flying again to Vast’s Haven-1 station, which the company hopes to have occupied four times for two weeks during its three year mission. They are also hoping to be part of the much larger Haven-2 station to follow.

Vast in turn is now assembling a staff of very experienced professional astronauts it can use to lead all these proposed missions.

Next, Voyager Technologies, the lead company in the consortium building the single-module large Starlab station that will launch on Starship, signed an agreement with Yonsei University in Seoul, South Korea. While initially the deal will have the university do research at Voyager’s research facility in Ohio, it also lays the groundwork for the univesity to eventually get access on Starlab, once launched.

For Voyager this deal helps show NASA that there is a real market for these private stations, something NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has expressed doubts about.

In my rankings below of the five stations under development, the first three stations remain essentially tied for first place.
» Read more

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SpaceX launches 25 more Starlink satellites

10:08 am

SpaceX this morning successfully placed another 25 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

The first stage completed its 15th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

The leaders in the 2026 launch race:

50 SpaceX
23 China
8 Russia
6 Rocket Lab

For the third straight year SpaceX continues to lead the entire world combined in total launches, 50 to 42.

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Indian rocket startup Skyroot now shipping its Vikram rocket to launch site

9:54 am

The Indian rocket startup Skyroot has now finished assembling its Vikram-1 rocket, and is about to ship it to its launch site at the Sriharikota spaceport on the east coast of India.

At Sriharikota, the rocket moves into final assembly and a round of system checks before a launch window is locked in the coming months. This is the last stretch before liftoff. Countdown operations, testing and integration now shift fully to the launch site.

One of the company’s founders said the most critical testing has been completed, with launch campaign activities set to begin at the spaceport.

The company is presently targeting a launch in June. If Vikram-1 reaches orbit successfully, Skyroot would become the first Indian private company to design, build, and launch its own rocket, and would be well positioned to win launch contracts from smallsat companies, competing directly with Rocket Lab and its Electron rocket.

This success would also help accelerate the Modi government’s effort to transition from a space industry controlled entirely by its government space agency ISRO to a private industry run by competing indepedent companies.

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Why is Sierra Space’s Dream Chaser spacecraft not ready for flight?

9:39 am

In a press release posted last week Sierra Space proudly announced that its Tenacity Dream Chaser mini-shuttle has completed its pre-launch ground vibration tests at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, but instead of moving the mini-shuttle to a local facility where it could be integrated with its rocket for launch, the company announced it was shipping it back “to Colorado for final modifications and mission-specific upgrades.”

Normally when a spacecraft, satellite, or any payload passes these last ground tests, it is ready for launch, and it immediately begins integration onto the rocket that will carry it into space. That Sierra Space is not doing this strongly suggests Tenacity did not pass with flying colors, and that some issues were identified that need correction.

Note too that this spacecraft had been delivered for these tests in early 2024, and had been expected to pass them then and be launched that year. Instead, months passed with no word, then its launch was postponed indefinitely, and then NASA canceled Sierra’s contract to provide cargo to ISS.

Now, two years later Tenacity is still not ready for launch. Though the company says the ground tests are now complete, I suspect otherwise. I suspect there is some fundamental issue with the spacecraft that they are hiding because to reveal it would be devastating to Sierra’s public reputation.

Until we know more however this is pure speculation on my part. What we do know however is that this mini-shuttle has not done what was promised, and increasingly appears to be a lemon that will never do it.

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