Tag: competition

NASA updates status of three private space stations

8:58 am

NASA today posted a short update of the development status for the three private space stations for which it has signed contracts.

Not surprisingly, Axiom’s station appears to be the most advanced.

Axiom Space, which holds a firm-fixed price, indefinite-delivery, indefinite-quantity contract with NASA, is on schedule to launch and attach its first module, named Axiom Hab One, to the International Space Station in 2026. A total of four modules are planned for the Axiom Commercial Segment attached to the station. After the space station’s retirement, the Axiom Commercial Segment will separate and become a free-flying commercial destination named Axiom Station.

With the remaining two stations, Starlab and Orbital Reef, the update provided no schedule information. While both Starlab, being built by a consortium led by Voyager Space, and Orbital Reef, being built by a consortium led by Blue Origin, appear to be making progess, the former appears to be accomplishing more than the latter, though that impression could simply be what NASA decided to report. For example, in describing the work being done on Orbital Reef, NASA chose for some reason to say nothing about the testing Sierra Space has been doing to test the inflatible module planned for the station. By leaving that out it makes it appear as if less has been done in developing that station.

These are not the only private space stations being proposed, only the ones that have contracts with NASA. A fourth station, Vast, is being built using funding from private sources, and is partnering with SpaceX.

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A tour of Blue Origin’s Huntsville Machine Shop & Manufacturing Facility

9:36 pm

Video below, which is heavily focused on machining and machine shop work. The facility, the Machine Shop & Manufacturing Facility in Huntsville, appears to build the BE-3U engine (to be used for the New Glenn upper stage), though I thought some of the engines shown could be BE-4’s. I hope my readers can help clarify this.

While this video actually reveals very little solid information, one important fact was disclosed near the end, when the tour reached the final engine assembly point. There the Blue Origin employee mentioned that they are assembling three engines at this facility. Considering facility’s size and the number of engines that will be needed once New Glenn begins flying, I was not impressed. Does it really take this much space and equipment to only build three rocket engines? Am I wrong?

Hat tip to reader John Harman, who is himself the owner of an aerospace manufacturing company.

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Chinese pseudo-company successfully completes second rocket vertical take-off and landing

9:31 am

Ispace hopper about to land, December 10, 2023
Ispace hopper about to land, December 10, 2023.
Click for video.

The Chinese pseudo-company Ispace on December 10, 2023 successfully completed the second veritical hop flight of a rocket prototype, testing vertical take-off and landing for the eventual purpose of recovering its first stages, as done now routinely by SpaceX.

ISpace’s Hyperbola-2Y methane-liquid oxygen reusable verification stage lifted off from a pad at Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in the Gobi Desert at 4:07 a.m. Eastern (1107 UTC) Dec. 10.

The Hyperbola-2Y reached an altitude of 343.12 meters, translating 50 meters to a landing zone and touching down with a velocity of 1.1 meters per second and an accuracy of 0.295 meters. The entire flight lasted 63.15 seconds, according to an iSpace press statement. The flight came just over a month after a first hop test Nov. 2. That test reached 178 meters and returned to its landing spot. iSpace says it will attempt a test at sea next year after completing ground tests.

Right now the race to become the second company or nation after SpaceX to return and reuse a first stage is between Ispace and Rocket Lab. No one else is even close, though there are a number of other Chinese pseudo-companies that are doing hop tests. Though Rocket Lab — which is not attempting a vertical engine landing but recovering the stage from the ocean — has already flown a recovered engine, as well as recovered several first stages for refurbishment, it has not yet flown a reused first stage. Based on its schedule, that might happen ’24.

Ispace meanwhile hasn’t yet flown to orbit the prototype’s rocket, Hyperbola-3. It hopes to attempt the first orbital test flight in 2025, with the recovery of its first stage in 2026.

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The Polaris Dawn private space mission now targeting an April ’24 launch

9:14 am

The Polaris Dawn private space mission, the first of a three-mission private manned program being financed by billionaire Jared Isaacman, is now targeting an April 2024 launch.

In social media posts Dec. 9, Jared Isaacman, the billionaire backing the Polaris program and who is commanding the initial mission, said the launch of Polaris Dawn is now scheduled for April 2024. “April is the goal to launch & the pace of training is accelerating,” he wrote, stating that he was at SpaceX that day for testing of extravehicular activity (EVA) spacesuits that will be used on the mission.

Conducting a spacewalk is one of the major goals of Polaris Dawn, requiring both development of an EVA suit as well as modifications to the Crew Dragon, which lacks an airlock. Both of those have been challenges, he suggested in a subsequent post. There is a “big difference,” he wrote, between the pressure suits worn by Crew Dragon astronauts and an EVA suit “engineered from the start to be exposed to vacuum outside the spaceship.” The lack of an airlock also requires changes to Crew Dragon software and hardware to enable depressurization of the cabin before the start of the spacewalk and repressurization afterwards.

The mission’s launch has been delayed several times from its first launch target in 2022. This first flight of Isaacman’s Polaris program will, as noted, attempt the first spacewalk by a private citizen. The second would also fly on a Dragon capsule, but its mission remains unclear. Both NASA and Isaacman’s Polaris team have been studying the possibility of a repair mission to Hubble. The third mission would be on Starship, once it begins flying operationally.

Isaacman previously paid for and flew on SpaceX’s first commercial manned flight, Inspiration4, in September 2021.

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ULA likely to delay first Vulcan launch to January launch window

8:31 am

According to a tweet yesterday by ULA’s CEO, Tory Bruno, the final dress rehearsal countdown of its new Vulcan rocket had some “routine” issues that will require a redo and thus prevent the planned launch on December 24, 2023.

WDR [wet dress rehearsal] update: Vehicle performed well. Ground system had a couple of (routine) issues, (being corrected). Ran the timeline long so we didn’t quite finish. I’d like a FULL WDR before our first flight, so XMAS eve is likely out. Next Peregrine window is 8 Jan.

Peregrine is Astrobotic’s lunar lander, which must launch within certain time frames to get to the Moon as planned.

As many news sites are noting (almost certainly because they read my launch race reports), ULA will likely complete 2023 with only three launches, its lowest total since it was formed in 2007 from a merger of the launch divisions of Boeing and Lockheed Martin. Prior to 2017 the company had averaged about one launch per month. In 2017 however SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket finally reached full operations, hitting 18 launches and steadily since then increasing that total. Its success (and lower prices) shifted the business from ULA, causing its annual launch totals to drop significantly, as shown in my 2022 global report.

Once Vulcan begins launching finally ULA should recover, especially because of its large contract with Amazon to launch the Kuiper constellation totalling almost fifty launches. A large percentage of those launches must be completed before 2026 for Amazon to meet the requirements of its FCC license.

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China’s Long March 2D rocket launches classified remote sensing satellite

8:57 pm

Early on December 10, 2023 (Chinese time) China successfully launched a classified remote sensing satellite, its Long March 2D rocket lifting off from its Xichang spaceport in the south of China.

The state-run Chinese press released almost no information. Nor did it say where within China the lower stages of the rocket, using toxic hypergolic fuels, crashed.

As expected, China’s launch pace in December has picked up, as it has routinely in recent years. The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

91 SpaceX
58 China
16 Russia
7 Rocket Lab
7 India

American private enterprise still leads China in successful launches, 103 to 58, and the entire world combined 103 to 92. SpaceX by itself now trails the rest of the world (excluding other American companies), 91 to 92, though it plans two launches on December 10th.

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Momentus fails to deploy three satellites on SpaceX’s multi-smallsat launch

10:06 am

The orbital tug company Momentus failed to deploy the satellites of three of its customers following November’s SpaceX multi-smallsat Transporter launch.

Momentus announced Dec. 5 that three of the five satellites that it flew on the Transporter-9 launch Nov. 11 did not appear to deploy from the Falcon 9’s upper stage. The company used a third-party deployer, rather than its own Vigoride tug, on that mission, and said that it was able to confirm that the Hello Test 1 and 2 satellites from Turkish company Hello Space were released.

The Momentus deployer remained attached to SpaceX’s upper stage, which as planned fired a de-orbit burn after completing the deployment schedule of its 90 satellites. All the satellites that used SpaceX’s deployment system apparently deployed properly.

In 2022 Momentus’s own orbital tug, Vigoride, had problems deploying some satellites on its first test launch, though its second flight in July 2023 was completely successful.

The failure here will not only pose problems for that third-party deployment company as well as Momentus, it will do serious harm to the startups that launched the three lost satellites. One was American, while the other two were South Korean and Polish. The American company, Lunasonde, has been trying to develop a constellation of satellites designed to look for underground resources.

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China launches three satellites using methane-fueled rocket

9:54 am

China's spaceports
China’s spaceports

The Chinese pseudo-company Landspace yesterday successfully used its methane-fueled Zhuque-2 rocket for the third time, placing three satellites into orbit from China’s Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China.

As China’s state-run press is now consistently doing, its report fails to mention this pseudo-company at all, recognizing the reality that it is actually controlled and owned by the Chinese government, though structured to function like a private company to enhance competition within China.

No word on where the rocket’s lower stages crashed inside China.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

91 SpaceX
57 China
16 Russia
7 Rocket Lab
7 India

American private enterprise now leads China in successful launches, 103 to 57, and the entire world combined 103 to 91. SpaceX by itself is now tied with the rest of the world (excluding other American companies), 91 to 91, though it plans two launches tomorrow.

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GAO wants the FAA to exert more control over future launch mishap investigations

9:46 am

We’re here to help you! A new GAO report now calls for the FAA to change how it does investigations after launch mishaps, both exerting more control of the investigations as well as demanding companies release more proprietary information after the investigation is complete.

The Government Accountability Office wants the FAA to improve how it investigates space launch mishaps, especially how it decides whether to do an investigation itself or allow the operator to do it. Historically operators are allowed to investigate their own mishaps under FAA supervision, but over the course of 50 mishaps since 2000, GAO found the FAA has not evaluated whether that’s an effective approach. GAO also champions creating a mechanism for sharing lessons learned among operators even though efforts in the past have not succeeded.

This GAO report proves several conclusions I have noted in the past year.

First, the so-called “investigation” by the FAA into the first Starship/Superheavy launch was utterly bogus, as I have repeatedly suggested. The FAA had no ability to do any investigations on its own. It merely rubber-stamped SpaceX’s conclusions, but did so as slowly as possible so as to delay the company’s effort. Before Joe Biden was installed as president, the FAA would quickly permit further launches once a company completed its investigation. Under Biden, that policy has changed to slow-walk approvals.

This also means the present “investigation” by the FAA into the second Starship/Superheavy launch is bogus as well. When SpaceX announces its investigation is complete and all engineering fixes have been accomplished, any further delay from the FAA will be entirely political.

Second, it appears the Biden administration is applying pressure to both the GAO and the FAA to increase this regulatory control. It wants the FAA to write new procedures for determining when it will take control of an investigation rather than let the company do it. While providing some clarity to this decision could be beneficial, it is likely this change under the Biden administration will work against free enterprise. It will give the government a procedure for grabbing control, and holding it for as long as it desires. Politics will become part of any mishap investigation, rather than leaving it solely to engineering.

Third, the desire of the goverment to make companies reveal the details of the investigation, including propertiary information, will only squelch future innovation. Why develop new technology if you will be forced to give it away free during testing, when things are certain to go wrong?

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SpaceX launches 22 more Starlink satellites

1:17 am

SpaceX early in the morning on December 8th successfully launched another 22 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California.

The first stage successfully completed its twelfth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

91 SpaceX
56 China
16 Russia
7 Rocket Lab
7 India

American private enterprise now leads China in successful launches, 103 to 56, and the entire world combined 103 to 90. SpaceX by itself has once again taken the lead over the rest of the world (excluding other American companies), now leading 91 to 90.

At this moment, based on the pace SpaceX is setting, the chances it will make its goal of 100 launches in 2023 seems very likely. Not that it matters should the company fall short by one or two launches. At this moment it already has achieved more launches in a year than the entire world managed per year for most of the history of the space age, since Sputnik in 1957. It has also established that it can do this, which means its goal of 144 launches next year is quite reasonable.

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Musk touts SpaceX’s gigantic lead in sending mass to orbit in 2023

9:22 am

The mass sent to orbit in 2023
Click for original image.

In a tweet Elon Musk sent out yesterday, he noted that “SpaceX is tracking to launch over 80% of all Earth payload to orbit this year.”

The graphic to the right was included in Musk’s tweet. Despite the delays in developing its heavy-lift Starship/Superheavy rocket, mostly caused by government red tape since the arrival of Joe Biden in the White House, the company’s smaller Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets have still been able to launch more than fifteen times the mass into orbit that its nearest competitor, the nation of China.

I count launches by company or nation as a indicator of rocketry success. The mass-to-orbit metric is as important, if not more so, though the two are without doubt linked. Both measure the success of those trying to become major players in the launch market.

And in both metrics, SpaceX is wiping the floor with its competition.

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SpaceX initiates new round to obtain from $500 to $750 million in additional private investment capital

8:45 am

SpaceX has opened another tender round to obtain from $500 to $750 million in additional private investment capital, with the company now valued at $175 billion, up from the previous valuation of $150 billion.

With this new capital, the company will have raised at a minimum around $12 billion from private sources, not including the undisclosed investment in October from Italy’s biggest bank.

Why are private investors willing to do commit so much cash to this company? This quote from the article says it all:

SpaceX is on track to book revenues of about $9 billion this year across its rocket launch and Starlink businesses, Bloomberg News reported last month, with sales projected to rise to around $15 billion in 2024. The company is also discussing an initial public offering for Starlink as soon as late 2024 — a bid to capitalize on robust demand for communications via space.

In other words, SpaceX is already earning enough to pay for the development of Starlink/Starship/Superheavy, with even bigger profits expected because it has such a lead on its competitors in the satellite broadband business.

These investors realize that SpaceX has captured the majority of this market share, and because of this it will be difficult for late arrivals like Amazon to enter the market. Amazon could charge less to gain market share, but SpaceX could then do the same. And SpaceX will already be in the black when it does so, while Amazon will instead be increasing its red ink.

This situation underlines the wisdom of Musk’s decision in 2018 to shake-up the management in SpaceX’s Starlink division because the management then was setting too slow a pace. As I wrote then:

Musk’s desire for speed here actually makes very good economic sense. There are other companies developing similar internet satellite constellations, and if SpaceX’s launches late they will likely lose a significant market share.

His concern about the slow pace seems to me also justified. This technology, while cutting edge, shouldn’t require as much testing and prototype work as it appears the fired managers wanted. Better to get something working and launched and making money, introducing upgrades as you go, as SpaceX has done so successfully with its Falcon 9 rocket.

Time has now proven Musk right.

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