Tag: competition

Does India’s new space policy shift operations from the government to the private sector?

10:06 am

On April 6, 2023 the Modi government of India announced that it had approved a new space policy, describing it as designed to boost private commercial space over the government-run operations of its space agency ISRO.

At the time, and still to this day, the actual text of that policy has not been released. However, an article today from India provides some analysis of this policy, based on statements by several government officials, and suggests that the goal of that policy is the same as NASA’s has been for the past decade, shift from being the builder of spacecraft and rockets to simply being the customer buying those products from the private sector. The key statement illustrating this came from Dr. S. Somnath, chairman of ISRO.

Speaking to the media, Somnath said that the new policy is focused on strengthening the participation of private players in India’s space program. The ISRO chairman also said that the new policy outlines a framework under which the private sector can use ISRO facilities for a small fee. The policy also looks upon private players to create new infrastructure in the space sector.

In what can be seen as a critical move, Somnath told the media that “ISRO will not do any operational and production work for the space sector and focus its energies on developing new technologies, new systems and research and development.” This essentially means that the routine production and launches that the ISRO was so caught up with until now will be handled by the private sector completely.

In other words, ISRO’s effort to capture market share by launching its rockets (dubbed GSLV, PSLV, and SSLV) for profit will eventually end. The Modi government instead wants the private sector to do this work, with rockets it builds and owns.

Even if we assume this analysis is correct, replacing ISRO’s rocket with private rockets however cannot happen quickly. While India has a vibrant commercial space industry, it presently only has two startup rocket companies, Agnikul and Skyroot, neither of which is close to reaching orbit. For NASA, the transition from running and owning everything to being a customer took about a decade. Expect the same transition in India to take as long, assuming the Modi government stays firm against the resistance that will surely come from its government bureaucracy, and any later administrations hold to this policy as well.

Furthermore, that the policy text has not been made public strongly suggests that the Modi government recognizes that it will face strong opposition within India’s very large and powerful bureaucracy, which is far larger and stronger than even the U.S.’s administrative state in DC. Fighting that bureaucracy in India is going to be very difficult, if not impossible.

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Relativity ends Terran-1, will move to developing more powerful Terran-R

9:40 am

According to Tim Ellis, the head of the rocket company Relativity, it has decided to end any further work on its small test rocket, Terran-1 following its first failed launch and shift all work to developing its more powerful Terran-R rocket.

The company feels good about the data collected from the flight, as Terran 1 made it further into space than the debut launches from a majority of small rocket companies. It also validated the company’s test and launch program, he said, and its approach to 3D printing large parts of a rocket. “Terran 1 was always meant to develop technologies that were pushing the bounds for what was needed for Terran R,” Ellis said.

But now, it’s time to move on. Relativity Space is negotiating with NASA to move the one existing commercial launch on Terran 1—the Venture Class Launch Services Demonstration 2 mission—onto another rocket, possibly the Terran R. In other words, there will be no more Terran 1 launches.

Ellis also described some major changes in the design of Terran-R. The company will no longer attempt to make the second stage reusable, it will no longer 3D-print its entire structure, its first stage will be more powerful and will be flown and reusable like SpaceX’s Falcon 9, and its first launch will be pushed back from 2024 to 2026.

This decision means that Relativity will not become an operational and competitive rocket company for another three years, at the soonest. However, should it succeed in achieving these new plans for Terran-R, it will have a rocket that can directly compete with SpaceX, while beating out anything either ULA or Blue Origin can at this time offer. For example, the rocket will be able to put from 23 to 33 tons into low Earth orbit, which is more than the Falcon 9 (20 tons) and not much less than the Falcon Heavy (50 tons), and generally better than Vulcan (27 tons). As noted at the link:

[T]he US government (as well as commercial satellite customers) would very much like a second company to step forward and challenge SpaceX on innovation, price, and reliability. Ellis correctly sees that this lane remains open with questions about Vulcan’s long-term future, Blue Origin’s slow movement on New Glenn, and Rocket Lab’s focus on a smaller medium-lift rocket, Neutron.

Whether this new strategy will work depends entirely on whether Relativity can deliver by 2026. If it does so, it will very likely beat Blue Origin into orbit, and be chosen by the military to replace it as one of the Pentagon’s launch providers. It will also make ULA’s position more vulnerable, because Vulcan will no longer be the only other option, and it will likely not be able to compete with the prices offered by SpaceX and Relativity.

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SpaceX announces it will be providing a webcast for Starship’s first orbital flight

9:03 pm

Starship/Superheavy flight plan for first orbital flight
Click for original image.

SpaceX today revealed the details for its live stream of the first orbital launch of Superheavy/Starship, now targeting a launch date around April 21, 2023, depending on when the FAA issues the launch license.

A live webcast of the flight test will begin ~45 minutes before liftoff. As is the case with all developmental testing, this schedule is dynamic and likely to change, so be sure to stay tuned to our social media channels for updates.

I will embed that live stream here on Behind the Black. Stay tuned for more information.

The flight plan is shown above. The website also provides a detailed timeline. If launch manages to pass through Max-Q and get to stage separation, Superheavy will do a flip to do a soft targeted landing in the Gulf of Mexico. Starship will continue into orbit, and then fire its engines to return to Earth to do a soft targeted landing in the Pacific northeast of the Big Island of Hawaii.

That is the plan. Much can go wrong along the way, considering Superheavy has never flown once, no less with Starship stacked on top. Furthermore, Starship has never flown in its present iteration. Previous suborbital tests were using much earlier prototypes vastly different that this prototype, #24 in the series.

Regardless whether all goes perfectly or some things fail, the launch will be a success because it will provide SpaceX data for future test flights, which are waiting in the wings.

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Startup aims to provide Space Force a satellite that can study the satellites of other countries

10:01 am

True Anomaly, a Colorado-based startup, has proposed building satellites for the Space Force designed to maneuver close to other satellites and provide high resolution imagery and data about them.

The company has already raised $30 million, and used it to hire 57 employees and a facility for manufacturing these satellites.

The startup plans to use the funding to scale the production of its Jackal Autonomous Orbital Vehicle, which was designed to study space objects at close range. The spacecraft collects photos, videos and data about any space objects in orbit, and it’s operated by humans with the assistance of artificial intelligence pilots.

Both China and Russia have flown a handful of satellites testing this exact technology. The U.S. has not, at least nothing comparable in recent years.

The real story here however is the manner in which the Space Force will do this. Instead of designing and building the satellites itself, which has been the policy of the military for decades, the Space Force is following the recommendations in my 2017 policy paper, Capitalism in Space, and becoming merely a customer, letting private companies do the work and own it themselves.

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Startup proposes capturing space junk with a satellite operating like a whale

9:53 am

Paladin satellite capturing space junk

Paladin, a new space junk removal startup based in Australia, has now proposed building a satellite that would literally swallow space junk and then send it over the ocean to burn up.

The image to the right shows the satellite as a piece of junk is about to be captured. The advantage it has on all other designs for capturing space junk is its simplicity. No nets, no harpoons, no grappling arms. The debris is captured inside a box inside the satellite, and then that box is released to burn up. This quote from the startup’s founder and CEO, Harrison Box, illustrates well his investment argument:

“The European Space Agency is currently paying 100 million euros to remove just one item of space junk. That’s the value they put on the job,” says Box. “Imagine the value of being able to remove hundreds.”

Paladin is one of 29 startups that have divided up $14 million in development money provided by a program of the Australian government. Thus, it is only at the very beginning of development, without a lot of cash to work with.

The idea however is smart, with great potential.

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Report recommends Congress allow full regulation of commercial human spaceflight

12:10 pm

The modern instruction manual for America
The modern instruction manual for America

A new report by the RAND corporation has recommended that Congress allow the moratorium on full regulation of commercial human spaceflight, established by the Commercial Space Launch Amendments Act of 2004 and extended several times, to expire on October 1, 2023.

That recommendation came despite a lack of progress on voluntary standards and key industry metrics. While standards development organizations like ASTM International and ISO have published 20 standards related to commercial spaceflight, the RAND report noted that “companies have yet to clearly or consistently adopt them in a manner that can be confirmed or verified publicly.” A diversity of technical approaches also hinders the development and implementation of standards.

The report also found that while the FAA had developed key industry indicators to assess readiness for adopting safety regulations, there were no goals for those indicators to determine when it was time to implement regulations. “It is, therefore, difficult to assess whether there has been progress toward meeting key industry metrics when there are not clear targets that could be met,” the report concluded.

Despite that lack of progress on standards or metrics, the RAND report nonetheless concluded that allowing the learning period to expire this year was the best approach. Doing so, it argued, would allow FAA and industry to start the process of developing safety regulations in a gradual manner and avoid a rush to regulate imposed by Congress should a high-profile accident take place while the learning period is still in effect.

It also recommended additional resources for the FAA to support that regulatory process, but did not quantify an increase in the budget for or personnel assigned to its Office of Commercial Space Transportation, or AST. [emphasis mine]

The highlighted words illustrate the crushing fundamentals of all government regulation. » Read more

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Japanese businesses face major losses due to Virgin Orbit bankruptcy

9:58 am

Two Japanese companies (one partnering with a Japanese airport) now face major financial losses due to the bankruptcy of Virgin Orbit.

Two Japanese companies, ANA Holdings … and little-known Japanese satellite development start-up iQPS Inc emerged among the top six creditors when Virgin Orbit filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Tuesday.

ANA, owed $1.65 million, had been a key partner for the Oita spaceport, entering a provisional deal with Virgin Orbit in 2021 for 20 flights of its LauncherOne rocket there. ANA said it was hopeful Virgin Orbit, which has said it is seeking a buyer, would be able to restructure and resume business.

Fukuoka-based iQPS had paid a $5.2 million deposit to launch its small, lightweight constellation satellites weighing under 100 kilograms (220 pounds), representing a major portion of the $17.2 million Series A funding it had raised in 2017.

ANA and the government of Oita prefecture had also hoped to garner some economic benefits from tourism by making this deal with Virgin Orbit. That won’t be happening now, though the expectation by this Japanese local government was never realistic. In fact, it illustrates how divorced government officials are from economic reality. No airport spaceport is going to attract a lot of tourism, even if Virgin Orbit was prospering and launching monthly.

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Starship now stacked on launchpad

9:45 am

Starship stacked on top of Superheavy

In preparation for a final wet dress rehearsal countdown followed by its first launch, Starship has now been stacked on top of Superheavy at SpaceX’s launchpad at Boca Chica, Texas.

The picture to the right is a screen capture from a short video Elon Musk posted on Twitter. SpaceX had also tweeted that its “Team is working towards a launch rehearsal next week [April 10-11] followed by Starship’s first integrated flight test ~week later pending regulatory approval.”

At this time the FAA has still not issued the launch license. By announcing its plan to launch the week of April 17th, Musk and SpaceX puts pressure the government bureaucracy to get a move on.

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Axiom sets date for next commercial manned flight to ISS

9:19 am

Axiom and NASA yesterday announced May 8, 2023 as the launch date for the private company’s second commercial flight to ISS, this time carrying three passengers out of a crew of four, two from Saudi Arabia and the third, John Shoffner, completing his second paid flight with Axiom.

Two of its crewmates are Rayyanah Barnawi and Ali AlQarni, members of the first Saudi Arabian astronaut class. Barnawi will become the first Saudi woman ever to reach space, and she and AlQarni will be the first people from the kingdom to travel to the ISS.

Retired NASA astronaut Peggy Whitson will command the mission for Axiom. The Dragon capsule used will be Freedom, making its second flight, lifting off on a Falcon 9 rocket with a new first stage. The plan is to be docked to ISS for ten days, which means for that time period ISS will have three Arab astronauts on board, including the UAE’s astronaut, Sultan Al Neyadi, who is in the middle of a six month mission and is about to do his first spacewalk.

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Chinese pseudo-company succeeds in reaching orbit again after three straight failures

9:09 am

China's spaceports
China’s spaceports

The Chinese pseudo-company I-space has finally reached orbit again with a launch today of its Hyperbola-1 (SQX-1) solid-fueled rocket, lifting off from China’s Jiuquan inland spaceport in the Gobi Desert.

After an initial launch success in 2019, the company had failed three straight times until today. No word on whether the first stage landed near habitable areas in China. Nor did the pseudo-company reveal whether the rocket carried an actual satellite into orbit.

Jiuquan is presently the only spaceport where China permits these pseudo-companies to launch, and has been expanding its facilities for these commercial operations. This also means China will be experiencing more first stages dropping on their heads of its people, which is why it is also building a commercial launchpad at the Wenchang spaceport on the coast.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

23 SpaceX
15 China
6 Russia
3 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads China 26 to 15 in the national rankings, and the entire world combined 26 to 25. SpaceX now trails the rest of the world combined, including American companies, 23 to 28.

UPDATE from BtB’s stringer Jay: Video of the launch can be found here. Jay also notes the lack of any mention of I-space in the official Chinese press, announcing this launch. Adds weight to the conclusion that these companies are not really real, but simply divisions of the Chinese government.

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SpaceX successfully launches Intelsat communications satellite

9:41 pm

SpaceX tonight successfully used its Falcon 9 rocket to launch an Intelsat communications satellite into orbit, lifting off from Cape Canaveral.

The first stage completed its fourth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic. The two fairings completed their second and eighth flights.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

23 SpaceX
14 China
6 Russia
3 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads China 26 to 14 in the national rankings, and the entire world combined 26 to 24. SpaceX now trails the rest of the world combined, including American companies, 23 to 27.

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April 6, 2023 Quick space links

5:21 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay.

  • China invites Brazil to participate in its lunar base project

    • There is no indication Brazil accepted the offer. The offer took place during a meeting between officials of the Brazil Space Agency and one of China’s pseudo-companies, China Great Wall Industry Corporation (which according to Jay “is the international launch service subsidiary” for China). Thus, this could be an effort by that pseudo-company to gain launch access to Brazil’s recently reactivated Alcântara spaceport.

 

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