Tag: competition

Who was Cornelius Vanderbilt?

12:03 pm

The First Tycoon

I ask the question in my headline because I am quite sure it is a question most Americans can no longer answer, with any firm knowledge. I myself didn’t know who Vanderbilt really was until I read a wonderful biography of him, The First Tycoon: The epic life of Cornelius Vanderbilt by T.J. Stiles, about two months ago.

Beforehand, all I really knew about Vanderbilt was that he had been a big deal somehow in the 1800s, and as a result there was a statue of him on the south side of Grand Central Station in New York, visible only by drivers going past on the overpass that circles the station.

What I learned from Stiles book however was astonishing. Not only did Vanderbilt build Grand Central Station, it was part of a transportation empire he created that by the end of his life covered most of the eastern United States. For Americans in the 1800s, if you needed to get from one place to another, you almost certainly rode on a Vanderbilt steamship or railroad.

Even more interesting to me however were the remarkable similarities in style, approach, and success between the Cornelius Vanderbilt of the 1800s and the Elon Musk of the 2000s. Both focused on taking new technology and making it profitable. Both built their empires on transportation.

And most of all, both focused on the product they were building to make money, not on speculating its value to make a quick buck.
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Two Middle Eastern startups sign deal to build a mini-shuttle dubbed Oryx

9:15 am

LEAP71's aerospike test engine
Leap71’s smallscale aerospike engine during testing.
Click for original image.

A rocket startup in the UAE, Aspire, has signed a partnership deal with a rocket engine startup in Dubai, Leap71, to build a fully reusable mini-shuttle dubbed Oryx, not unlike the Dream Chaser mini-shuttle that Sierra Space has been trying to launch now for more than a decade.

As part of the plan, Leap71 will develop two types of engines for Oryx, including one using an aerospike nozzle.

Building on their ongoing cooperation, Aspire Space is now contracting LEAP 71 to develop the rocket engines powering the Oryx’s second stage. Each engine will produce 20 tons (200 kN) of thrust, and the partners are pursuing two parallel propulsion paths: a conventional engine and a novel aerospike configuration.

The aerospike concept, long studied but never flown, offers superior efficiency across both atmospheric and vacuum flight regimes — making it particularly well suited for reusable launch systems. LEAP 71 gained international recognition in December 2024 for successfully testing a 5 kN aerospike engine, validating key aspects of its design.

The picture to the right shows the LEAP aerospike engine during those 2024 tests. As I noted then, “The spike in the center acts as one wall of the nozzle, and the changing pressure of the atmosphere acting as the other side of the nozzle, allowing the nozzle size to change as the rocket rises, thus making its thrust as efficient as possible.”

Those tests were done in the United Kingdom, suggesting the company relied on British engineers using financing from Dubai. Even so, to go from that smallscale test to a full engine launching both a rocket and a reusable mini-shuttle will be a major challenge. Or to put it another way, to say their plans are aspirational is an understatement.

Hat tip BtB’s stringer Jay.

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A company that wants to shoot payloads into orbit with a cannon

9:23 am

Link here. The company is called Longshot. It isn’t the only company attempting to do this. I reported on another company, Green Launch, in 2022, but have heard little from it since then.

I leave it to the engineers in my readership to tell me if this company has any chance of success. It seems to me that any payloads it launches would likely have to be dead weight, like water or oxygen or fuel, as the speeds involve would damage delicate instrumentation.

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SpaceX launches 28 Starlink satellites; 1st stage flies for first time

9:14 am

UPDATE: When I wrote this post, several sources stated that the first stage was flying for its thirtieth time. I relied on those sources. As it turns out, they were wrong. The first stage on this launch was flying for its first time. The post below has been rewritten to correct this error.

———————–
SpaceX early this morning successfully placed another 28 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

The first stage completed its first flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

154 SpaceX (a new record)
72 China
15 Rocket Lab
13 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 154 to 120.

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Startup B2Space launches rocket from balloon

10:21 am

The startup B2Space has completed a test flight using a balloon to lift a solid-fueled rocket to high altitude, where the rocket was then launched.

In a 17 November update, the company announced that it had completed a test of its integrated rockoon launch system using a “rocket of lower power than that planned for the commercial version of the system.” The test was conducted from the Port of Vueltas in Valle Gran Rey in the Canary Islands. Its aim was to validate key elements of the company’s rockoon launch system, including the rocket rail alignment and ignition subsystems.

The balloon was launched at 4:00 CET and carried the small rocket to an altitude of 21.5 kilometres, at which point the rocket was launched. Speaking to European Spaceflight, B2Space CTO Valentin confirmed that the ignition system had been successful but did not share any details about the state of the rocket itself. In a 17 November update, the company confirmed that all elements of the launch system had been successfully recovered following the test.

Calling this company a startup is not quite accurate, as it has been around for almost a decade, pushing the idea of a a balloon-launched rocket, dubbed a “rockoon”. The idea itself is not new. If my memory serves me right, it had been tested intermittently in some form as early as the 1950s.

The company hopes to test a larger suborbital version in 2026, followed by an orbital test.

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SpaceX issues 1st statement regarding Superheavy test explosion

9:27 am

Damaged Superheavy
Click for original image.

SpaceX yesterday issued its first update regarding the explosion in the lower half of the Superheavy booster that it had planned to fly on the next orbital test flight.

Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site.

That no propellant was involved explains why the booster and test pad experienced relatively little damage. They were likely pumping nitrogen through the system to test it, and while something exploded, the gases were not volatile.

The picture to the right is a screen capture from aerial drone flights performed by RGV Aerial Photography and posted on nasaspaceflight.com. I have enhanced it to bring out the details. Note the lack of damage on all sides of the booster at its base. The explosion was clearly confined to the booster, and appears to have occurred from within.

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SpaceX launches 29 more Starlink satellites

1:02 am

SpaceX early this morning successfully launched another 29 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

The first stage completed its 9th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

153 SpaceX (a new record)
72 China
15 Rocket Lab
13 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 153 to 120.

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Superheavy intended for next test flight damaged during static fire test

9:57 am

Damaged Superheavy
Click for source.

According to video taken by the Labpadre live stream of SpaceX’s operations at Boca Chica, the Superheavy booster that the company was preparing for the next orbital test flight was damaged while it was being fueled for a static fire test.

The video, which I have embedded below, suggests a tank rupture occurred in the booster’s lower section, where its main oxygen tanks are located. Another post-incident image from different source on social media and to the right, shows the hull of that section badly deformed, with the far side not visible apparently blown out. It also appears the test stand experienced no or little damage.

This incident will likely delay the next orbital Starship/Superheavy test flight, but not significantly. SpaceX has more prototype Superheavys in the queue. While it might need to do some quick additional work preparing one, that should’t slow things down by much.

Figuring out what happened to cause this burst tank is more likely to cause a delay. The company needs to identify and fix the issue before it can proceed.
» Read more

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China launches a “communications technology test satellite”

9:33 am

China today successfully launched what its state-run press called a “communications technology test satellite,” its Long March 3B rocket lifting off from its Xichang spaceport in southwest China.

No other details about the satellite were released. Nor did that state-run press provide any information about where the rocket’s lower stages, using very toxic hypergolic fuels, crashed inside China.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

152 SpaceX
72 China (a new record)
15 Rocket Lab
13 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 152 to 120.

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Maritime Launch Services touts a second non-orbital launch from Spaceport Nova Scotia

8:51 am

Proposed Canadian spaceports
Proposed Canadian spaceports

The competition between Canada’s two proposed spaceports heated up yesterday when the owner of Spaceport Nova Scotia, Maritime Launch Services, announced that the second launch had taken place there, this time by a rocket startup named T-Minus Engineering.

The launch took place at 11:54 AM, and the mission marked an important milestone in advancing the operational readiness of Spaceport Nova Scotia, critical infrastructure that will provide Canada with sovereign launch capability. The launch was conducted from Spaceport Nova Scotia under approved regulatory and safety frameworks. The demonstration strengthened coordination among launch site teams and stakeholder partners, while refining launch operational procedures and the safety and security systems that govern all activities at the spaceport.

The press release provided no details about the launch itself, though this report noted that the rocket failed to reach its goal of 100 kilometers, the altitude considered by most as the edge of space. The rocket, dubbed Barracuda, is solid-fueled and was apparently designed by T-Minus to demonstrate its capability for hypersonic testing.

This was the second suborbital launch from this spaceport. The first, in 2023, was a student test flight. In both cases, the launches were mostly a PR effort to sell the spaceport, which was first proposed in 2016 but has been unable so far to draw any launch customers. Maritime now also faces competition from the Atlantic Spaceport being proposed by a different company, Nordspace.

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Firefly to provide the launch rocket for Kratos’ hypersonic test vehicles

8:36 am

The rocket/lunar lander startup Firefly yesterday announced that it has signed a partnership deal with the hypersonic test startup Kratos.

In August Kratos partnered with the Australian company Hypersonix to build 20 scramjet test vehicles for the Pentagon for hypersonic test flights. Firefly with this new deal will provide the launch vehicle for getting those scramjets into the air at the speeds required. In fact, it appears Firefly is now going to do with its Alpha rocket the same thing that Rocket Lab did with its Electron rocket, revising it for suborbital testing.

Rocket Lab has already completed six successful HASTE launches. It will be interesting how quickly Firefly can get Alpha reconfigured and launched in this manner. Some of that schedule will also hinge on Kratos’ ability to provide the scramjets. The press release makes no mention of schedule.

Firefly’s action here continues the recent shift by many American space startups from rocketry and space exploration to defense work that is only tangentially related to space. It appears they are all diversifying to grab the expected rich contracts the Pentagon is expected to hand out to develop Trump’s proposed Golden Dome defense system. It also appears that many are diversifying because they have doubts the civilian space industry can sustain them, by itself.

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Spanish rocket startup PLD unveils the first qualification unit of its Miura-5 rocket

8:01 am

1st Miura-5 qualification unit
The 1st Miura-5 qualification unit. Click for original.

The Spanish rocket startup PLD yesterday unveiled the first of two full-scale qualification units it is building to test the design of its Miura-5 orbital rocket, scheduled for a first launch sometime in 2026.

The QM1 unit will serve to qualify two key elements of the launcher. Firstly, the MIURA 5 second stage will undergo a destruction test in the United States to validate the functioning of the Flight Termination System. This test will verify the operation of the explosive charges onboard the vehicle, designed to destroy the launcher in the event of an in-flight anomaly.

Secondly, a Wet Dress Rehearsal will be carried out on the rocket’s first stage – a full propellant loading test that replicates all structural load scenarios during the fuelling and pressurisation phase. This test is essential to validate the behaviour of structures under real operational conditions.

By December (next month) the company hopes to complete a second qualification unit for further testing, followed by the flight rocket, which will be shipped to French Guiana for a launch sometime next year.

Right now PLD and Germany’s Isar Aerospace are in the lead in the race to become the first European rocket startup to reach orbit. Isar — which in March attempted one launch that failed — has already shipped the stages to Norway for its second attempt before the end of this year. PLD thus appears to be just behind, though all this could easily change. This is rocket science y’know.

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SpaceX launches 29 more Starlink satellites

8:48 pm

The beat never stops! SpaceX tonight successfully placed another 29 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

The first stage completed its 23rd flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

152 SpaceX (a new record)
71 China
15 Rocket Lab
13 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 152 to 119.

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Blue Origin announces plans to upgrade New Glenn to match SLS

12:25 pm

New Glenn compared to the Saturn-5
Graphic issued by Blue Origin’s CEO comparing
New Glenn to the Saturn-5. Click for source.

In an update posted today, Blue Origin announced that it is planning to begin upgrades to its New Glenn orbital rocket as soon as its very next launch early in 2026, with those upgrades eventually raising the rocket’s capabilities to that of NASA’s overpriced, cumbersome, and poorly designed SLS rocket.

One of the primary enhancements includes higher-performing engines on both stages. Total thrust for the seven BE-4 booster engines is increasing from 3.9 million lbf (17,219 kN) to 4.5 million lbf (19,928 kN). BE-4 has already demonstrated 625,000 lbf on the test stand at current propellant conditions and will achieve 640,000 lbf later this year, with propellant subcooling increasing the current thrust capability from the existing 550,000 lbf.

The total thrust of the two BE-3Us powering New Glenn’s upper stage is increasing from the original design of 320,000 lbf (1,423 kN) to 400,000 lbf (1,779 kN) thrust over the next few missions. BE-3U has already demonstrated 211,658 lbf on the test stand.

These numbers are a little more than half that put out by the Saturn-5 in the 1960s. New Glenn however has a reusable first stage, so it will cost far less to launch, and will be able to do so frequently. These changes will also make it comparable to SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy.

These engine upgrades however are only a start. Blue Origin also plans to offer a second more powerful version of New Glenn by adding two BE-4 engines to the first stage and two BE-3U engines to the upper stage.
» Read more

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Rocket Lab sets new annual launch record for the company

11:00 am

Rocket Lab today set new annual launch record for the company, quickly scheduling and launching a payload for a “confidential commercial customer”, its Electron rocket lifting off from one of the company’s two launchpads in New Zealand.

This was the 15th orbital launch by Rocket Lab in 2025, beating the record of 14 the company set in 2025. Rocket Lab has also launched its HASTE suborbital version of Electron three times, so the company has actually completed the equivalent of 18 Electron launches this year, though three were not intended to reach orbit.

What made this launch unusual is that it was not announced in advance, and took place suddenly without revealing the customer. It is likely the customer was flying a classified military payload. UPDATE on November 26, 2025: That customer was actually the commercial imagery company BlackSky, launching another one of its satellites for its constellation used by both the military and the public. The company did not explain why it wished its identity hidden during the launch.)

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

151 SpaceX
71 China
15 Rocket Lab (a new record)
13 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 151 to 119.

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ArianeGroup confirms it is targeting about six Ariane-6 launches in 2026

10:46 am

According to an official with ArianeGroup, the company that builds and owns the Ariane-6 rocket, it hopes in 2026 to double the launch rate from 2025, from four this year to as many as eight launches next.

The Group is ramping up production at its sites in France and Germany for this purpose. The main stage will be manufactured in Les Mureaux, France, and the upper stage in Bremen, Germany. The latter is considered the heart and brain of the rocket, as it is responsible for controlling the final flight section and reaching the target.

In Bremen, the Group developed a serial production process – similar to assembly line production in car manufacturing. Six upper stages are to be produced in parallel at the plant in future. Ten to twelve upper stages are to be completed and delivered each year. “The target of around ten missions per year should be achieved by 2027,” said Franzeck.

Franzeck’s prediction matches that made two weeks ago by the head of Arianespace, which manages Ariane-6 for ArianeGroup.

It is likely that these companies will get at least six launches off in 2026. Whether they can achieve eight is less likely, based on their past recent record. Reaching 10 launches in 2027 is probably more certain however. They have a big 18-launch contract with Amazon to launch its Amazon LEO satellites (formerly Kuiper), and there is great pressure to achieve those launches quickly because of Amazon’s FCC license requirements.

After this however the future of Ariane-6 remains uncertain. It is too expense (being expendable) to compete in the present launch market. Few European companies want to buy it, and there are numerous new reusable rockets about to begin operations.

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India tests new and better restart method for upper stage of its biggest rocket

9:58 am

India’s space agency ISRO has successfully tested new restart method for the engine it uses on the upper stage of its LVM rocket, its biggest rocket that it also intends to use for its manned and interplanetary missions.

For future missions, multiple in-flight restarts of the CE20 engine will be required for mission flexibility towards multi-orbit missions. However, with the present configuration, each restart demands an additional start-up gas bottle and associated systems, leading to a reduction in vehicle payload capability. Hence, achieving boot-strap mode start – where the engine builds up to steady operation without external start-up assistance – is essential.

In this regard, a boot-strap mode start test on the CE20 Cryogenic engine was successfully conducted under vacuum conditions in the High-Altitude Test (HAT) facility at ISRO Propulsion Complex, Mahendragiri on 7th November 2025, for a duration of 10 seconds. A multi-element igniter was employed in both the thrust chamber and gas generator to facilitate boot-strap starting. In this test, following the ignition of the thrust chamber, the gas generator was ignited under tank head conditions, and the turbopumps were started without the use of the start-up system. Subsequently, boot-strap mode build-up and steady-state operation of the engine were successfully demonstrated.

In other words, the engine now be restarted numerous times, giving any payload attached much greater flexibility in positioning and orbital maneuvers. For manned missions this means it can be used to reposition the modules for India’s planned space station, maneuver its manned capsule Gaganyaan, and send interplanetary missions to the Moon and beyond.

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More criticism and opposition to Europe’s proposed space law

9:47 am

The European Union
This label would be more accurate if it read
“NOT made in the European Union”

At a conference in Germany this week, officials from the U.S. and several European countries expressed strong reservations about a proposed new European space law that would impose significant regulations on satellite and rocket companies, even if they are not European-based.

The objections by the American representative merely underlined the opposition already expressed by the State Department two weeks ago, when it said the law placed ““unacceptable regulatory burdens on U.S. providers of space services to European customers.”

Objections however were also expressed by officials from the United Kingdom and Liechtenstein. The latter’s comments also suggested further opposition should be expected from other European nations as well.

Liechtenstein is not a member of the EU but is part of the European Economic Area (EEA), said Bianca Lins, lead for space in the Liechtenstein Office for Communications. Since the EU Space Act covers issues like a single market for space services in Europe, “it’s going to be incorporated into the EEA agreement and also means we have to transpose it into national law.”

Her concern, she said, is that the act “does not really consider the international obligations that every sovereign state has,” including responsibilities under the Outer Space Treaty. She expected Liechtenstein, Iceland and Norway — the other EEA states outside the EU — to submit comments on those issues.

The law has also been condemned by companies in the U.S. as well as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

It is unclear however if the European Union is reconsidering the bill. If it passes it will do significant harm. One possibility is that American companies will pull much of their satellite and launch business out of Europe. And if they do not, it will likely cause them to defy the law, with State Department backing. The EU has no right to impose its rules on American companies.

If the latter occurs, it will thus set a significant legal precedent that suggests the European Union is a toothless non-entity with no real legal power. I suspect this threat above all will force the EU to reconsider the bill.

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Canada commits a half billion to European Space Agency projects

8:53 am

During a conference yesterday, Canada’s industry minister Mélanie Joly announced that her government has increased its budget for European Space Agency (ESA) projects to a total of $528 million over the next three to five years.

This funding increases is quite significant, approximately ten times greater than Canada’s previous budget commitments to ESA projects.

Few details were provided on how the money would be spent.

Joly said the investment would advance research and development of Canadian-made space technologies for both civilian and defence purposes. These include satellite communications, Earth observation, space exploration, positioning, navigation and timing, and space situational awareness, she said.

While most of the western world is shifting to the capitalism model, where the government buys what it needs from products owned by the private sector, it appears the present leftwing Canadian government under Mark Carney is moving instead in the direction of the Soviet model, whereby the government builds and owns the projects itself. This ESA commitment falls into that latter category, at least on the surface. Much however will depend on how ESA and Canada eventually decide to spend the cash.

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SpaceX and China complete launches

11:35 pm

Two launches on opposites sides of the globe this evening.

First, SpaceX launched another 29 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral. The first stage completed its 12th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

Next (November 19th local time), China placed three classified satellites into orbit, its Long March 2C rocket lifting off from its Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China. China’s state-run press would only say the satellites were for “space environment exploration and related technology verification,” an utterly meaningless statement. That state-run press also said nothing about where the rocket’s lower stages, using very toxic hypergolic fuels, crashed inside China.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

151 SpaceX (a new record)
71 China (a new record)
14 Rocket Lab
13 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 151 to 118.

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Mexican anti-Musk activists whine about SpaceX’s Boca Chica launch operations

1:27 pm

Chicken Little is once again panicking
Chicken Little is once again panicking

Mexican anti-Musk activists have now announced new complaints against SpaceX’s Boca Chica launch operations, claiming the soft-splash down of its Superheavy boosters in the Gulf of Mexico is damaging marine life, and the company’s effort to remove its stage and debris is further damaging the ocean floor.

Conibio Global A.C., a marine biodiversity organization in Mexico, launched “Expedition Booster 2025” this summer in partnership with the state of Tamaulipas and the Universidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas. The group is studying how booster landings near Playa Bagdad may be affecting wildlife and nearby communities. “We have 20 kilometers of space debris, which amounts to tons,” said Jesus Elias Ibarra Rodriguez, president of Conibio Global A.C. “If you go right now, you’ll find three or five pieces of plastic or metal or electrical parts from the thruster, even tanks—there is already a lot of debris.”

Researchers report that sea turtles and dolphins often mistake smaller debris for food, which can lead to deadly ingestion. They also documented debris fragments measuring between two and 10 meters long. According to the group, 3-D sonar imaging shows that a platform used in July to remove debris may have caused additional damage to the seafloor. “This platform has three structures that were sunk and anchored to the seafloor,” Rodriguez said. “During the investigation, we realized that it caused damage and holes when its structures were wedged in while removing the engines, and the engines were damaging the seabed and the species that live in the area.”

In other words, SpaceX is evil for dropping Superheavy in the Gulf, and it is also evil for removing it. Or to put this in real terms, these activists simply don’t want SpaceX to do anything. Their goal is to shut the company down entirely.

Moreover, their research is clearly bogus and overwrought. The entire world has been dropping lower stages in the oceans for more than three-quarters of a century, with no documented harm to marine life or the oceans. These faux scientists are simply puffing up their work to use this as a hammer against SpaceX.

Their complaint meanwhile appears somewhat bogus as well. They are “in communication” with Mexican authorities, and only “plan to present [their] findings” to that government eventually. In other words, their complaint hasn’t been filed with the government, but with our compliant propaganda press (in this case a local Texas news outlet), who are always glad to push the leftist agenda, no matter how idiotic.

Hat tip to Robert Pratt of Pratt on Texas.

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German rocket startup Isar wins another launch contract

9:43 am

Isar's first launch attempt fails
Spectrum falling seconds after its launch
in March 2025

The German rocket startup Isar Aerospace today won a new launch contract from the satellite aggregator SEOPS for a 2028 launch of its new Spectrum rocket.

SEOPS today announced during SpaceTech Expo it has purchased a dedicated launch on Isar Aerospace’s ‘Spectrum’ rocket. Targeted for launch in 2028, this marks SEOPS’ first collaboration with Isar Aerospace, expanding the company’s European launch capabilities.

SEOPS acts as an agent for satellite companies building small cubesats, arranging the launches for them because these companies often don’t have the resources or experience to do the job themselves. The choice of Isar’s Spectrum rocket suggests SEOPS wants to encourage new launch options, since Isar has only launched Spectrum once, and that launch was a failure. This contract acts to strengthen Isar’s future by giving it a powerful customer. It also gives SEOPS a European launch option, something that will attract European smallsat makers to it.

Isar is presently preparing Spectrum for its second launch out of Norway’s Andoya spaceport, with road closure announcements suggesting it will occur prior to December 21, 2025. If successful Isar will be the first new European rocket company in decades to reach orbit. It will also be the first German company to do so, ever. And it will give Andoya spaceport first place in the race to become Europe’s first orbital spaceport.

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Blue Origin targeting from 12 to 24 New Glenn launches in 2026

9:22 am

New Glenn prior to its first launch in January 2025
New Glenn on the launchpad prior to its
first launch in January 2025

Following the second successful launch last week of its New Glenn rocket, including a successful recovery of its first stage, Blue Origin’s CEO David Limp says the company’s goal for 2026 will be to attempt between 12 and 24 launches.

Limp said success on New Glenn’s second flight would set the company up for a significant increase in cadence. The company is building enough hardware for “well above” a dozen flights in 2026, with the upper-end limit of 24 launches. The pacing item is second stages. Right now Blue Origin can build one per month, but the production rate is increasing.

A pace of one launch a month would be unprecedented for Blue Origin in numerous ways. Since 2017 the company has built a poor reputation for slow and tentative operations. It took years for it to finally begin building BE-4 engines at a rate that could serve both it and its customer ULA. It took years to get New Glenn off the ground, a half decade later than initially announced. Moving from a lazy tortoise to a enthusiastic hare so quickly would thus seem very unlikely.

Blue Origin however has a major 27-launch contract with Amazon to launch its Amazon LEO constellation (formerly known as “Kuiper”). And Amazon desperately needs those launches to happen soon, as it only has 154 satellites in orbit and needs to get about another 1400 launched by July 2026 to meet its FCC license.

Even so, Limp noted that the next New Glenn launch will be to send its Blue Moon Mark-1 unmanned lunar lander to the Moon, and the best schedule he could offer was a launch sometime in the first quarter of ’26. If so, his prediction for the total launches in 2026 seems overly optimistic, at a minimum.

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Will China launch a rescue Shenzhou capsule to Tiangong-3 in one week?

9:07 am

The Tiangong-3 station, as presently configured
The Tiangong-3 station, as presently configured

According to this report at Space News late yesterday, China has issued a road closure notice for its Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China suggesting it will launch a Long March 2F rocket carrying a rescue Shenzhou capsule to Tiangong-3 on November 25, 2025, one week from today.

An airspace closure notice issued Nov. 17 indicates that China is preparing the Shenzhou-22 spacecraft and a Long March 2F rocket for launch at around 11:10 p.m. Eastern Nov. 24 (0410 UTC, Nov. 25) from Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in the Gobi Desert. China’s human spaceflight agency has yet to publicly announce the plan. [emphasis mine]

This rescue mission is necessary because the Shenzhou-20 capsule that brought the previous crew to the station is now unusable, having sustained damage in one window from an impact of “space debris.” That crew came back to Earth last week on the Shenzhou-21 that ferried the present crew to space, leaving that present crew without a lifeboat.

The highlighted sentence is important, because it is very possible that road closure notice could be for a different launch not yet announced by China. It is quite routine for China to keep the specifics of a launch secret until the last minute, which means it is dangerous to assume this road closure is specifically for the Long March 2F rocket set to carry the Shenzhou-22 capsule to Tiangong-3.

Previous reports only yesterday had noted that preparing that rocket and capsule would likely take at a minimum 10 to 20 days, and even that schedule would be “difficult.” Getting ready in only one week thus seems unlikely.

At the same time, there is great urgency to launch, as the three-person crew presently on Tiangong-3 has no lifeboat there should anything serious go wrong.

Expect China’s state-run press to clarify the situation, when it decides to do so.

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Echostar subsidiary Hughesnet now sending its customers to Starlink

8:01 am

Following the purchase by SpaceX of much of Echostar’s spectrum, its subsidiary Hughesnet appears to be on the verge of shutting down as it is now referring its present and future customers to Starlink.

Hughesnet is preparing to refer its own customers to rival Starlink after its parent company, EchoStar, reached a deal to sell radio spectrum to SpaceX. The referral program is mentioned in a 10-Q SEC filing that Hughesnet released on Friday. The 66-page document includes a section about the EchoStar-SpaceX deal and what it means for Hughesnet’s business. “The commercial agreements will also provide for a fee-based referral program that lets us refer existing HughesNet customers and new Starlink customers to SpaceX,” the document says, without elaborating.

The article also notes that the company lacks the cash on hand to function over the next 12 months, and has lost more than half its customer base in the past year.

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Thailand rejects Starlink

9:18 am

Because of local laws forbidding the operation of any foreign-owned telecommunications company in Thailand, its government has rejected any sale of Starlink terminals inside the country.

The Digital Economy and Society Ministry has rejected a proposal from SpaceX to provide Starlink low-orbit satellite internet services in Thailand through a 100% foreign-owned company, citing national security concerns and legal restrictions. “If the company wants to set up a wholly owned firm, there will be no opportunity … to cooperate, as telecom ownership is directly linked to our digital security system,” minister Chaichanok Chidchob said on Friday.

This is the same problem that SpaceX has faced in a number of other third world countries, such as India and South Africa. In South Africa the government demanded SpaceX give up some or all of its ownership rights as well as impose a variety of racial or employment quotas that SpaceX considers unacceptable. Thus, no Starlink. In the case of India, the government insisted that its own telecom companies get a cut. SpaceX then managed to negotiate deals with each, where those companies market the Starlink terminals for SpaceX.

Apparently, no such deal has yet been worked out in Thailand.

Expect a deal eventually, however. The article notes that Thailand’s neighbor Vietnam has a Starlink deal allowing its citizens to sign up without restrictions. That agreement is going to put great pressure on Thailand

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Europe finalizes transfer of Vega-C rocket back to its builder, Italian company Avio

9:05 am

European Space Agency logo

In an agreement signed on November 14, 2025, the European Space Agency (ESA) completed the transfer of the Vega-C rocket, formerly controlled by the government-owned company Arianespace, back to the Italian company Avio.

Following decisions taken by the ESA Council in 2023, the revision of the Launchers Exploitation Declaration (LED) was finalized on 10 July 2025 and the Guiana Space Centre Agreement was signed on 23 October 2025. The LEAs signed today translate the LED mandate to ESA into concrete detailed implementation arrangements between ESA and the launch operators.

The two arrangements signed today – one with Arianespace and ArianeGroup for Ariane 6, and one with Avio for Vega-C – define the roles and responsibilities of each operator and ESA’s role in monitoring its implementation. They also establish the framework for cooperation between the parties to ensure Europe’s continued autonomous access to space through the exploitation of ESA-developed launchers from Europe’s Spaceport in French Guiana.

The quote above also details other changes. The Ariane-6 rocket is now controlled by a partnership of Arianespace and ArianeGroup, with the bulk of control by the latter, a private company that owns the rocket. Though Arianespace retains some management rights, its part in the rocket’s future has been reduced significantly.

Meanwhile, ownership and control of the French Guiana spaceport has now been transferred entirely from Arianespace and back to France’s space agency CNES. CNES has been running things more or less for the past year or so, but this makes the change official.

All in all, these agreements continue ESA’s shift in the past two years away from the government-run model, centralized under Arianespace control, to the capitalism model, where the government is merely a customer, buying what it needs from independent, competing, privately-owned companies. While these agreements highlight Avio and ArianeGroup, Europe also has a flock of new rocket startups (Isar, Rocket Factory Augsburg, PLD) on verge of their first launches.

If Europe maintains its commitment to this shift, it should see some exciting developments in space in the coming years.

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China begins hurried preparations to launch rescue Shenzhou capsule to Tiangong-3

6:01 am

The Tiangong-3 station, as presently configured
The Tiangong-3 station, as presently configured

According to China’s state run press, it has begun emergency procedures to quickly launch the Shenzhou-22 capsule — originally scheduled to carry the next crew to its Tiangong-3 station in April 2026 — in order to provide the present station crew a lifeboat and a return capsule.

The China Manned Space Agency has started preparations for the launch of an unmanned spacecraft to carry a full cargo load, including provisions for astronauts and equipment for the Tiangong space station, according to a senior engineer. Zhou Yaqiang, who works with the agency’s general technical bureau, told China Central Television on Saturday that all systems involved in the upcoming Shenzhou-22 cargo mission “are busy getting ready for it, testing the rocket and the spaceship and preparing the payloads”.

The Shenzhou-22 spacecraft will be launched in due course to dock with the Tiangong space station, the agency said.

The report provided no details on when this launch would occur, though another Chinese report said getting the rocket (a Long March 2F) and capsule ready in the next 10 to 20 days would be “difficult.”

At the moment, the three astronauts on Tiangong-3 have no lifeboat. Should anything go wrong at the station before that launch they will have no way to get back to Earth, unless they use the damaged Shenzhou-21 capsule still docked to the station. That capsule has cracks in a window, caused by what the Chinese think was an impact from “space debris.” The Chinese have already determined it is not safe for human travel. Thus, using it in an emergency would be a desperate act.

Since the first space station, Salyut-1, was launched and occupied in 1971, this is the first time that a crew has been in space with absolutely no way to get home. The press last year repeatedly claimed the Starliner crew was “stranded” on ISS, but that wasn’t so. They could have always come home on their Starliner craft, as was proven when it returned unmanned with no problems. NASA had simply made the decision to be cautious and wait for the launch of next Dragon to bring them home instead.

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SpaceX launches NASA ocean radar satellite

10:56 pm

SpaceX tonight successfully launched Sentinal-6B, a NASA radar satellite designed to measure the global sea level, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base.

The first stage completed its 3rd flight, landing back at Vandenberg.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

150 SpaceX (a new record)
70 China
14 Rocket Lab
13 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 150 to 117.

Note that until SpaceX began to up its launch rate significantly in 2022, the entire global rocket industry — run entirely by governments — never completed more than 135 successful launches in a single year, and usually failed to make 100 launches. SpaceX is now proving that those global numbers over more than a half century were indicative of the failure of those governments. Those governments controlled everything, and so they prevented innovation, competition, and new ideas.

The transition to capitalism and freedom since 2010 has finally begun to open up space for everyone.

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Two more SpaceX launches

1:15 pm

SpaceX yesterday completed two launches, placing a total of 58 Starlink satellites into orbit.

First, a Falcon 9 lifted off from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, carrying 29 Starlink satellites. The first stage completed its 8th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

Four hours later, a second Falcon 9 lifted off from Cape Canaveral, carrying another 29 Starlink satellites. Its first stage completed its 24th flight, also landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

149 SpaceX
70 China
14 Rocket Lab
13 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 149 to 117.

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