Tag: competition

SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy launches NOAA weather satellite

2:37 pm

SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket today successfully launched a NOAA weather satellite, completing its first flight in 2024 and its tenth flight overall.

The two side boosters completed their first flight, with both landing back at Cape Canaveral. The core stage was allowed to fall into the ocean.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

67 SpaceX
28 China
8 Russia
8 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the world combined in successful launches, 78 to 42, while SpaceX by itself still leads the entire world, including other American companies, 67 to 53.

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Airbus forced to write off almost a billion dollars

9:42 am

Even though the problems that Boeing has been driving its customers to Airbus, Airbus yesterday revealed that its own business outlook is presently suffering, forcing it to write off $965 million.

Yielding to growing scepticism among suppliers over its plans for jet output, Airbus lowered its widely watched forecast for deliveries this year to around 770 jets from around 800. It also tempered plans to raise output of its best-selling A320neo family, by delaying the date at which it expects to reach a record production speed of 75 jets a month to 2027 from 2026. That compares with an estimated 50 jets a month now.

As a result of the lower delivery forecasts, which imply annual growth of 5% instead of 9%, Airbus lowered its main financial targets for 2024. It now expects underlying operating income of around 5.5 billion euros, instead of a range of 6.5 billion to 7.0 billion, and free cashflow of 3.5 billion instead of 4.0 billion.

The article focuses on Airbus’s engine supply issues that are restricting its ability to build jets. It makes no mention of the company’s joint partnership with Safran to build the Ariane-6 rocket, which has failed to garner the business predicted, even as it is about to make its inaugural launch on July 9th. Though peripheral to the airplane issues described, it is certainly a factor in these financial issues.

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Firefly to launch from Wallops instead of Cape Canaveral

9:18 am

The rocket startup Firefly announced yesterday that it has decided to change its east coast launch site for its Alpha rocket from Cape Canaveral in Florida to Wallops Island in Virginia, using the same pad there that Northrop Grumman’s Antares rocket uses.

The company said that it would use Pad 0A at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport (MARS) on Wallops Island for Alpha launches, starting as soon as 2025. The launch pad, built for the Antares rocket, will continue to be used for the revised Antares 330 Northrop Grumman is developing in collaboration with Firefly as well as the larger Medium Launch Vehicle (MLV) the companies are building.

The company says launching from Wallops, in addition to its existing pad at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, will allow it to serve more customers. Wallops can support launches to lower inclination orbits than feasible from Vandenberg, which is best suited for sun-synchronous and other high-inclination orbits.

Because the revised Antares rocket will use a first stage built by Firefly (replacing a Ukrainian first stage no longer available due to Russia’s invasion), this change appears to make a great deal of sense. The revised pad will likely use comparable systems between both Antares and Alpha.

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Chang’e-6 brings back the first lunar samples from Moon’s far side

9:10 am

Engineers inspecting and opening Chang'e-6 return capsule
Engineers inspecting and opening Chang’e-6’s
sample return capsule after landing today.
Click for original image.

According to China’s state-run press, the sample return capsule of its Chang’e-6 lunar mission successfully landed today in the inner Mongolia region of China, bringing back the first lunar samples from Moon’s far side.

Under ground control, the returner separated from the orbiter approximately 5,000 km above the South Atlantic. The capsule entered the Earth’s atmosphere at about 1:41 p.m. at an altitude of about 120 km and a speed of nearly 11.2 km per second. After aerodynamic deceleration, it skipped out of the atmosphere and then began to glide downwards, before re-entering the atmosphere and decelerating for a second time.
At around 10 km above the ground, a parachute opened, and the returner later landed precisely and smoothly in the predetermined area, where it was recovered by a search team.

The returner is set to be airlifted to Beijing for opening, and the lunar samples will be transferred to a team of scientists for subsequent storage, analysis and study, said the CNSA. [emphasis mine]

The highlighted sentence is important. China has now successfully flown this atmospheric skip maneuver twice on returning from the Moon. Though both missions were unmanned, the technical knowledge gained from these flights is critical for their plans to send astronauts to the Moon in the next few years.

I have embedded China’s broadcast of the landing below. The sample capsule will now be carefully opened and the samples distributed first to Chinese scientists and later to China’s various partners in its lunar base project. The samples themselves came from a small mare region on the edge of Apollo Crater inside South Aitken Basin, one of the largest impact basins on the Moon. It is thus hoped that the samples were excavated from deep within the Moon during the impact, and will provide new data on the Moon’s make-up and history.
» Read more

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France’s CNES space agency begins work adapting commercial launchpad at French Guiana for specific startup rocket companies

9:15 am

Capitalism in space: France’s CNES space agency, which has taken back ownership of its French Guiana spaceport from Arianespace, has now begun adapting its new commercial launchpad there for a number of specific startup rocket companies.

In early 2021, the French space agency CNES announced plans to open up the Guiana Space Centre to commercial micro and mini-launch operators. The agency explained that it would be developing a multi-user launch pad on the grounds of the old Diamant launch complex. In July 2022, CNES announced that it had pre-selected Avio, HyImpulse, Isar Aerospace, MaiaSpace, PLD Space, Rocket Factory Augsburg, and Latitude to utilize the new launch complex.

During a media briefing following ESA’s 327th council meeting, Tolker-Nielsen explained that “general work” on the complex had already started and that work on “specific adaptations” was about to begin. These specific adaptations will be completed by the companies that will utilize the launch complex to ensure it fulfills the specific needs of their launch systems.

Of the seven rocket startups listed above, Tolker-Nielson said PLD was the ahead of the others in adapting the pad for its use, though no launch date is set. Avio meanwhile will likely not have to use this pad, as it owns the Vega family of rockets, which have already launched from French Guiana using another launchpad.
» Read more

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China’s successfully completes full 10K hop of 3-engine launch test rocket

8:57 am

China’s yesterday successfully completed a 10K hop lasting six minutes of 3-engine launch test small-scale rocket, lifting off from its Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China.

Developed by the Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology, the carrier rocket features a 3.8-meter diameter rocket body, powered by three 70-tonne LOX/Methane engines and equipped with a full-size landing buffer system.

The rocket achieved vertical soft landing at a fixed point through take-off, ascent and variable-thrust descent. The test fully verified the rocket’s VTOL configuration, heavy-load landing buffer technology, reusable propulsion technology with high and strong variable thrust, and high-precision landing navigation and control technology.

I have embedded below a video that shows the take-off, parts of the flight, and landing. China hopes to fly a full scale orbital version, with a 4-meter diameter, in 2025.
» Read more

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India’s prototype X-37B, dubbed Pushpak, completes third successfully drop test runway landing

10:43 pm

India’s space agency ISRO today successfully completed the third drop test from a helicopter to a runway landing of an X-37B engineering test vehicle, dubbed Pushpak.

The winged vehicle, named ‘Pushpak’, was released from an Indian Air Force Chinook Helicopter at an altitude of 4.5 km. Pushpak autonomously executed cross-range correction manoeuvres, approached the runway, and performed a precise horizontal landing at the runway centerline.

The vehicle also used the same body and flight systems from the previous flight without modifications. Though this is hardly a return from space, the landing profile attempted to duplicate much of that flight path, and thus demonstrated ISRO engineers are on the right track for creating a reusable mini-shuttle.

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SpaceX completes two launches today, from opposite coasts

10:37 pm

The bunny marches on! SpaceX successfully completed two launches today.

First, its Falcon 9 rocket launched 22 Starlink satellites from Cape Canaveral in Florida. This was the launch that had been delayed several times by weather, and then by a tecnical launch abort at T-0. After several days of review, it lifted in the morning today with no problems, the first stage completing its eleventh flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

Then, about ten hours later a Falcon 9 rocket lifted off in the evening Vandenberg in California, putting 20 Starlink satellites into orbit, 13 of which are said to be designed for direct cell-to-satellite capabilities. This first stage also completed its eleventh flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

This post is a bit late because we had a five hour power outage in my neighborhood tonight, caused apparently when someone drove into a utility pole and knocked it over.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

66 SpaceX
28 China
8 Russia
8 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the world combined in successful launches, 77 to 42, while SpaceX by itself still leads the entire world, including other American companies, 66 to 53.

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Starliner return delayed again, until July

10:08 pm

NASA tonight announced that it is once again delaying the undocking from ISS and the return to Earth of Boeing’s Starliner capsule, carrying two astronauts, with the return date a as-yet unspecified date in July.

The move off Wednesday, June 26, deconflicts Starliner’s undocking and landing from a series of planned International Space Station spacewalks while allowing mission teams time to review propulsion system data.

It seems to me that they have decided the more time Starliner spends in space right now, the more data they can gather about its flightworthiness in the future. Remember, the first manned Dragon demo mission stayed at ISS for more than two months.

Their approach however — announcing small delays over and over again — is extremely poor PR. It makes it seem as if the capsule’s various issues — thrusters, helium leaks, and valves — are a more serious than I think they are.

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Spanish high altitude balloon company releases artwork of its proposed passenger capsule

9:59 am

EOS-X's balloon capsule
Artist rendering of EOS-X’s balloon capsule

The Spanish high altitude balloon company EOS-X has now released several artist renderings of the proposed capsule that will take passengers on a high altitude balloon flight.

According to the company, the first flights will occur sometime late next year, lifting off from either Seville in Spain or Abu Dabi in the Middle East. The proposed ticket prices range from $160K to $214K, with flights lasting about five hours.

All of this sounds highly speculative, especially because EOS-X in November 2023 was one of two balloon companies indicted by a Spanish court for stealing its balloon concepts from a third company. I have not seen the final decision in that court case, so it is unclear what the long term ramifications might be. It could be that the company which sued, Zero-2, has taken over EOS-X.

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Italy approves new space law

9:40 am

Italy’s Council of Ministers yesterday approved language for a new space law and five year space economic plan, designed to regulate the commercial space operations inside Italy as well by Italian companies operating in foreign lands.

In addition to mandating authorization for national and foreign operators who intend to conduct space activities from Italian soil, the law will also regulate the activities of national operators intending to conduct business from foreign territories. One element of regulatory compliance outlined within the law addresses the management of space incidents. Operators will be required to secure insurance coverage of up to €100 million per incident. There are, however, provisions allowing for the potential for lower caps in cases of reduced risk.

More details about the law can be found here. It gives regulatory authority to Italy’s space agency ASI, while also establishing a five-year government program (funding not disclosed) to stimulate the space sector.

The released details are insufficient to find out the real consequences of this law. If written correctly, the regulations could actually make it easier for the private sector to prosper. If not, it could instead squelch new startups as well as existing companies.

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SpaceX announces a mini-version of Starlink designed for backpackers

9:28 am

SpaceX today unveiled what it calls Starlink Mini, a smaller version of the Starlink antenna that can fit inside a backpack.

Early Starlink customers were invited to purchase the Starlink Mini kit for $599, according to an invitation sent to customers and viewed by TechCrunch. That’s $100 more than the standard Starlink kit. They were also given the option to bundle Mini Roam service with their existing service plan for an additional $30 per month, though the data is capped at 50 gigabytes per month.

That would mean a Starlink residential customer on the standard service plan would spent $150 month. SpaceX aims to reduce the price of the kit, it said in the invitation. As of now, there is no stand-alone Mini Roam plan.

The unit weighs only 2.5 pounds, with the first deliveries arriving in July. It is designed specifically for travelers who want a reliable internet connection wherever they go.

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Nova Scotia spaceport approved for new government grants

9:23 am

The proposed Nova Scotia spaceport run by the company Maritime Services has now been approved to apply for new government grants for its proposed satellite processing facility.

The Nova Scotia CITC is an annualized reimbursement program designed by the Government of Nova Scotia to drive economic growth and incentivize development within Nova Scotia. The program provides significant financial advantages to eligible corporations that invest in infrastructure and capital equipment for approved projects located in Nova Scotia.

Maritime Launch has received approval for an initial qualification of up to $7.5M in reimbursements under the CITC for the satellite processing facility project. Reimbursement is eligible to begin at the start of the construction of the satellite processing facility, planned for late 2024 and follows approval of a separate application in September 2023 for a project at Spaceport Nova Scotia.

Maritime Launch has been around since 2016 but as of this moment it is unclear when the first orbital launch from the spaceport will occur. Initially the plan had been to provide both spaceport and a Ukrainian rocket for satellite makers, but the Ukraine war ended that plan. Now the spaceport offers its facility to any rocket company, but so far no launch company has yet signed a launch deal.

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SpaceX launches commercial geosynchronous satellite for SES

4:59 pm

SpaceX today successfully launched a commercial geosynchronous satellite for the Luxembourg company SES, its Falcon 9 lifting off from Cape Canaveral.

The first stage completed its ninth flight, landing successfully on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

64 SpaceX
27 China
8 Russia
8 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the world combined in successful launches, 75 to 41, while SpaceX by itself still leads the entire world, including other American companies, 64 to 52.

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Rocket Lab launches five smallsats for French commercial constellation

11:24 am

Rocket Lab today successfully launched the first five smallsats of a 25-satellite “Internet-of-Things” commercial constellation of the French company Kinéis.

This was Rocket Lab’s 50th launch, putting this company among a very small club of private companies, which includes SpaceX and ULA. Governments and government-owned entities (such as Arianespace) have done more, but that is going to change in the coming years as private enterprise takes over.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

63 SpaceX (with another launch scheduled for later today)
27 China
8 Russia
8 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the world combined in successful launches, 74 to 41, while SpaceX by itself still leads the entire world, including other American companies, 63 to 52.

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Update on SpaceX activities leading to the next Superheavy/Starship orbital test flight

9:36 am

Link here. Lots happening, including fueling and static fire tests of Starship prototype #26 (which will not fly) and major changes on Starship prototype #30, which is slated to make that fifth test flight:

Ship 30 continues to receive upgrades, preparing it for Flight Five. Now, with most of the older tiles removed [18,000 total], new similar-sized tiles are being attached to Ship 30. These tiles could potentially have a different formula, which would make them more resistant to heat while holding a similar size.

Also, an ablative pyron layer is being added to the hot spots where Ship 30 is most likely infiltrated by plasma during entry. Pyron is used in the Falcon 9’s engine bay and is a material that SpaceX knows and trusts.

SpaceX has said it is targeting July for the flight, and the FAA has said the company’s launch license will allow it to launch whenever it is ready, with no FAA red tape to stand in the way.

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Blue Origin signs deal to fly Nigerian on New Shepard suborbital flight

9:29 am

As part of what is now a general pattern of using New Shepard suborbital flights for feel-good public relations stunts, Blue Origin has now signed a deal to fly a Nigerian into space sometime this year or next.

A lot of government and charitable entities appear involved in this deal.

The Space Exploration & Research Agency (SERA) [private charity] and the National Space Research and Development Agency (NASRDA) [Nigeria’s space agency] have signed a partnership agreement to execute an exploration project that will send the first Nigerian citizen into space. This collaboration marks a significant milestone in Nigeria’s space exploration journey and opens new opportunities for scientific research and technological advancement.

Under this partnership, SERA, a global space agency dedicated to increasing access to space for all nations, will reserve a seat on an upcoming Blue Origin New Shepard suborbital spaceflight for a Nigerian citizen.

According to a statement shared with Technext, this is part of a broader SERA-led initiative, in partnership with Blue Origin, to send six individuals from nations historically underrepresented in space exploration.

In addition, a Nigerian non-profit, Learnspace, appears to have played a part in working out this deal. As for SERA, I suspect its funding mostly comes from Jeff Bezos or Blue Origin.

Either way, the deal appears to open the competition to any Nigerian citizen, with the final decision partly influenced by public voting.

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German rocket startup Isar raises another €65 million in investment capital

9:09 am

The German rocket startup Isar Aerospace has now raised an additional €65 million in investment capital, bringing the total invested in the company to €400 million ($428 million).

Interestingly, a major backer appears to be a governmental entity.

The funding round extension received significant involvement from the NATO Innovation Fund (NIF), a venture capital fund backed by 24 NATO allies focused on addressing challenges in defence, security, and resilience.

…In addition to NIF, the funding round included contributions from G3T, 10x Group, Besant Capital, Finadvice Med HOLDINGS, LP&E, and existing investors Lakestar, Earlybird, Airbus Ventures, Bayern Kapital, and UVC Partners.

Isar has deals to launch its proposed Spectrum orbital rocket from French Guiana and from the new commercial spaceport in Andoya, Norway. The company however initially promised in 2021 that its first launch from Andoya would take place in 2022, with no launch occurring. In fact, of the three German rocket startups, Isar is the only one to so far not do a test launch of any kind, and it is presently unclear when that first orbital test launch of Spectrum will occur.

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SpaceX launches 20 Starlink satellites

8:43 am

After a ten day pause in launches, which included one launch abort at T-0, SpaceX yesterday successfully launched 20 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California.

The pause is noteworthy because it is possibly SpaceX’s longest pause in launches this year (I haven’t gone back and checked). Consider this fact: A ten day pause between launches would have once been considered a fast launch pace. Now it seems like something is wrong.

The rocket’s first stage completed its fifth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

63 SpaceX (with another launch scheduled for later today)
27 China
8 Russia
7 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the world combined in successful launches, 73 to 41, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including other American companies, 63 to 51.

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Starliner return delayed again to June 26th

10:23 am

In a press briefing today, Boeing and NASA announced that they have decided to delay the return of Boeing’s Starliner capsule, carrying two astronauts, another four days to June 26, 2024. The landing would take place just before dawn, landing at White Sands in New Mexico.

The decision to delay is related to the results from the hot fire tests of the aft thrusters of Starliner on June 15, 2024. Engineers want to review the data, which included finding that one of the eight thrusters is producing unacceptable results and will not be used for the rest of the flight. The other seven thrusters however produced acceptable results, “good thrust” as noted by one official.

The extra time to review the data is also because these thrusters are on the service module, which will not return to Earth. They want to make sure they understand the issues entirely. The longer time docked to ISS is also giving them better data for future longer missions.

As for the helium leaks, the level of leaking appears to be dropping, and in fact dropped after the hot fire burns, and “appears to be somehow related to the thrusters.” Either way, the safety margins remain sufficient so that the return is not threatened in any way by these leaks.

The valve issue also seems under control, with all the valves now working as expected.

Overvall, engineers have decided they have a safe vehicle that can not only be used to return to Earth as scheduled, they are confident that they could also use Starliner as a lifeboat in a sudden emergency.

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Rocket Lab gets a new 10-launch contract from Japanese satellite company

9:08 am

Rocket Lab yesterday signed a new 10-launch contract with the Japanese satellite company Synspective, with the launches scheduled for the 2025-2027 timeframe.

Rocket Lab has been Synspective’s sole launch provider since 2020, having already launched four of its satellites, with two other launches already under contract. Thus, the satellite company has bought sixteen total launches from Rocket Lab. Its constellation is designed to provide surface data in any weather condition, using radar.

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German rocket startup looking for alternatives to Saxavord spaceport

9:13 am

Australian commercial spaceports
Australia’s commercial spaceports. Click for original map.

Because of regulatory delays at the Saxaford spaceport in Great Britain, the German rocket startup Hyimpulse has signed a launch deal with the Australian commercial spaceport Southern Launch.

In May, HyImpulse launched the inaugural flight of its suborbital SR75 rocket from the Southern Launch Koonibba Test Range. The flight had initially been expected to be launched from SaxaVord in Scotland, but delays in the construction of the facility forced the company to look elsewhere for a host.

On 6 June, Southern Launch announced that it had signed a Memorandum of Understanding with HyImpulse for the launch of additional SR75 missions from Koonibba. The agreement also included provisions for the pair to explore the possibility of launching orbital flights aboard the HyImpulse SL1 rocket from Whalers Way Orbital Launch Complex on the south coast of Australia.

According to Hyimpulse’s November 2023 deal with Saxaford, it was to have flown two suborbital flights of the SR75 in 2024 and one orbital flight of SL1 in 2025.

It could very well be that SL1’s first orbital test launch will still take place from Saxavord, but the several years of delays caused by the red tape from the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority in approving Saxavord has forced its customers to seek alternatives. Hyimpulse for example now has agreements not only with Southern Launch in Australia. The French space agency CNES has approved it to launch from French Guiana as well.

In addition, the German rocket startup Isar Aerospace in November 2023 signed a deal with the new Andoya commercial spaceport in Norway. Andoya had come into this spaceport competition very late, but it apparently won this deal because Isar saw the regulatory problems in the UK and decided to look elsewhere.

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New evidence suggests some titanium on Boeing and Airbus planes might be fake

12:36 pm

According to information provided to the FAA from Boeing, the documentation from a subcontractor for some of the titanium used on some Boeing and Airbus planes might be faked, suggesting that the titanium is fake as well.

Boeing discovered this possibility when one of its suppliers discovered holes in some metal pieces due to corrosion.

Apparently, Italian parts supplier Titanium International Group found small holes in titanium in December 2023, and also raised suspicions about the authenticity of documentation. It notified Spirit AeroSystems of the issue, which in turn informed Airbus and Boeing in January 2024. According to three anonymous sources close to the matter, affected planes include those built between 2019 and 2023 and involve the Boeing 737 MAX, 787 Dreamliner and Airbus A220 programs.

…The problem has been traced back to a Chinese supplier that sold titanium to Turkish company Turkish Aerospace Industries in 2019. Documentation from this Chinese supplier claimed that the titanium had been sourced from another Chinese firm, Baoji Titanium Industry – however, Baoji Titanium has confirmed that it did not provide this batch of titanium “and has no business dealing with this company.” [emphasis in original]

In other words, no one has any idea where that first Chinese supplier got the titanium, because its documentation was false.

Both Airbus and Boeing have done numerous tests and found no problems, though both have said they will remove any suspect parts. Spirit meanwhile has removed all the suspect parts, even though tests suggested the parts were “of sufficient quality for the aerospace industry.”

The real story here is not that these parts are unsafe (they apparently are not). The real story is the dependence by these airplane companies on so many subcontractors, some of which are subcontractors of subcontractors of subcontractors and also come from a hostile power. It leaves them all very vulnerable to others’ mistakes or malfeasance. During the Cold War it would have been inconceivable to rely on Soviet-built parts. Yet, today American airlines routine rely on Chinese companies when the Chinese government has made it clear it sees us as an enemy to be defeated.

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Space Force names SpaceX, ULA, and Blue Origin as its launch providers for the next five years

9:14 am

As part of the military’s program for issuing launch contracts, the Space Force yesterday announced that it has chosen SpaceX, ULA, and Blue Origin as its launch providers, allowing them to bid on $5.6 billion worth of planned launched over the next five years.

The NSSL Phase 3 program was structured into two “lanes.” Lane 1 is for less demanding launches to low Earth orbit, while Lane 2 is reserved for heavy lift rockets capable of delivering payloads to nine reference orbits, including some of the most demanding national security missions.

The selection of Blue Origin, SpaceX, and ULA for Lane 1 contracts confirms that no other launch providers met the criteria. Seven bids were submitted, according to the DoD announcement.

The Space Force apparently rejected the other four unnamed companies because they “are still maturing their launch capabilities.” It will allow them to re-submit applications next year, and could approve others for bidding at that time, which is a major change from past policy. Previously the military would name approved companies, but not reconsider others for years, a policy that limited its options and reduced competition. Now it appears it will be doing so frequently, possibly every year, in order to regularly increase the number of companies that can bid on military contracts.

This change is excellent news for the American launch industry, as it means the Pentagon has finally ended its long standing launch policy that played favorites.

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Starliner’s return delayed again

8:44 am

NASA today announced that the return of Starliner from ISS, carrying two astronauts, has been delayed again, from June 18th to June 22nd.

It appears engineers want to perform more tests of the the spacecraft’s attitude thrusters before undocking. The failure of some thrusters during docking on June 6th has raised some concerns.

NASA and Boeing teams also prepared plans for Starliner to fire seven of its eight aft-facing thrusters while docked to the station to evaluate thruster performance for the remainder of the mission. Known as a “hot fire test,” the process will see two bursts of the thrusters, totaling about a second, as part of a pathfinder process to evaluate how the spacecraft will perform during future operational missions after being docked to the space station for six months. [emphasis mine]

The highlighted words are kind of a lie. While there is no doubt this test will tell engineers a lot about future operations, such a test, while attached to ISS, would never have been approved had the thrusters all worked as planned during docking. The real reason for this static fire test is to make sure the thrusters will work once undocked.

If they don’t work, there could be a safety issue putting the astronauts in Starliner for return to Earth.

NASA plans a press briefing on June 18th at noon (Eastern) to outline in better detail the situation.

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FAA announces schedule for new EIS public meetings on SpaceX’s Starship/Superheavy operations at Cape Canaveral

9:48 am

FAA has now announced the schedule of public meetings in connection with the new environmental impact statement (EIS) it is doing for SpaceX’s proposed Starship/Superheavy operations at Cape Canaveral.

On June 12 and 13, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will host a series of public scoping meetings to inform the public and answer questions about SpaceX’s proposal to launch Starship from Launch Complex 39A (LC-39A). There will also be a virtual meeting on June 17 for those unable to attend in person.

…Among those attending the public hearings will be representative of the Department of the Air Force, the U.S. Space Force, the U.S. Coast Guard, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge, Canaveral National Seashore and SpaceX.

FAA officials claim this new EIS is required, after doing one only five years ago, because of major changes in SpaceX’s design of Superheavy. For example, it originally planned to land the rocket on a drone ship. Now it wants to catch it with the arms on the launch tower.

The FAA’s argument for this new EIS might sound plausible at first glance, but these regulations were never intended to require new environmental statements every time a project underwent changes. The goal was to make sure the environment would not be impacted by the work, and the first 2019 EIS achieved that. None of the changes SpaceX is proposing change significantly its impact on the local environment.

Moreover, the FAA has three-quarters of a century of empirical data at Cape Canaveral proving that spaceports help the local environment, not hurt it. We know without doubt that none of SpaceX’s launch plans will do harm. The FAA should get out of the way.

Instead, it is sticking its nose into everything. This new EIS is merely mission creep, government bureaucrats both covering their backsides while creating new work that increases their power and justifies bigger budgets for their existence.

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Review of 4th Superheavy/Starship flight; FAA clears SpaceX for next flight

9:32 am

Link here. The article provides a detailed step-by-step review of everything that happened on the fourth Superheavy/Starship orbital test flight on June 6, 2024, as well as describing the changes being applied to Starship and Superheavy due to that flight.

However, the article also included this announcement from the FAA, stating that it will not do its own mishap investigation on that flight.

The FAA assessed the operations of the SpaceX Starship Flight 4 mission. All flight events for both Starship and Super Heavy appear to have occurred within the scope of planned and authorized activities.

While this decision means SpaceX can go ahead with the fifth test launch as soon as it is ready — no longer delayed while it waits for the FAA to retype SpaceX’s investigation and then approve it — it is unclear whether this FAA decision will allow SpaceX to attempt a tower landing of Superheavy, with the tower’s arms catching the rocket.

If the FAA has not yet approved a tower landing, I suspect SpaceX will forgo that attempt on the next launch in order to get it off the ground as soon as possible, even as it pushes the FAA for such an approval for a subsequent launch.

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A new Chicken Little report: The mega satellite constellations are going to destroy the ozone layer!

1:50 pm

The American Geophysical Union, where science is no longer practiced
The American Geophysical Union, where
science is no longer practiced

We’re all gonna die! According to a new paper touted today by the PR department of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), a new study has concluded — based on computer modeling — that the many giant satellite constellations totaling tens of thousands of satellites pose a risk to the ozone layer because the aluminium used in their structures that gets vaporized upon re-entry will interact with the ozone layer and destroy it.

You can read the paper here. From the abstract:

This paper investigates the oxidation process of the satellite’s aluminum content during atmospheric reentry utilizing atomic-scale molecular dynamics simulations. We find that the population of reentering satellites in 2022 caused a 29.5% increase of aluminum in the atmosphere above the natural level, resulting in around 17 metric tons of aluminum oxides injected into the mesosphere. The byproducts generated by the reentry of satellites in a future scenario where mega-constellations come to fruition can reach over 360 metric tons per year. As aluminum oxide nanoparticles may remain in the atmosphere for decades, they can cause significant ozone depletion.

The uncertainties and biases here are hard to count. First, it is a computer model (“Garbage in, garbage out”). Second, the simulations make many assumptions, most of which cannot be confirmed, or are simply absurd. For example, the model is based on a single “typcial, small satellite” coming from a specific orbit and elevation when we know these satellites will have many variations in size, make-up, and orbits. Third, the scientists admit they use “a worst-case scenario” for determining what would happen when the satellite re-enters the atmosphere.

Finally, and most damning, the whole premise of this threat is based on a somewhat implausive chain of chemical actions.
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SpaceX retrieves its Dragon debris that fell in Canada in February

11:08 am

SpaceX yesterday sent a crew and a U-Haul truck to five different farms in Saskatchewan, Canada, to retrieve eight pieces of debris that came from the service module trunk of a Dragon cargo capsule when the trunk was de-orbited to burn up in the atmosphere in February.

I am certain SpaceX engineers want to find out why this debris survived its fall through the atmosphere, so as to better predict what will happen on future de-orbits. If they determine that more of Dragon’s service module survives re-entry than previously predicted, it will require a rethinking on where such de-orbits are planned, making sure they always occur over the ocean.

It also appears that an academic who doesn’t know much about space engineering showed up during this retrieval to talk to the press and attack SpaceX.

Samantha Lawler, a University of Regina astronomy professor, was at the farm when SpaceX employees arrived on Tuesday. She said SpaceX needs to be transparent about how its operations are affecting the atmosphere, and how incidents like this are dealt with.

Lawler was quoted more fully (and more embarrassingly) in this other news report:

“SpaceX has over 6,000 Starlink satellites in orbit that they claim will burn up completely when they re-enter. That comes to 23 re-entries per-day when they are at full capacity. If those re-entries are all making it to the ground, dropping hundred pound pieces of garbage, that will kill lots of people,” Lawler explained.

To claim that any Starlink satellites are threat to hit the ground proves Lawler knowns nothing about space engineering and is acting merely as a anti-SpaceX “Karen” who wants to harass the company. Starlink satellites are too small to pose a threat. Moreover, SpaceX from day one has acted responsibly to de-orbit them under a controlled manner.

Nonetheless, this incident in Canada suggests that more material from larger orbiting objects can reach the ground, and requires a rethinking as to where to de-orbit them.

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