Tag: competition

China launches recoverable capsule; satellite launched two days ago just misses Starlink satellite

11:03 pm

Two Chinese launch-related stories tonight. First, one of the nine satellites launched on a Kinetica-3 rocket on December 10, 2025 apparently almost collided with a Starlink satellite after deployment in orbit.

As far as we know, no coordination or deconfliction with existing satellites operating in space was performed, resulting in a 200 meter close approach between one of the deployed satellites and STARLINK-6079 (56120) at 560 km altitude.

The government-owned pseudo-company that launched the rocket, CAS Space, responded shortly thereafter.

Our team is currently in contact for more details. All CAS Space launches select their launch windows using the ground-based space awareness system to avoid collisions with known satellites/debris. This is a mandatory procedure. We will work on identifying the exact details and provide assistance as the LSP.

It is possible China did the proper due diligence but the large number of satellites in orbit as well as being launched simply makes these events increasingly likely. It is also possible CAS Space is lying, and it didn’t do a thorough analysis prior to launch. Either way, this incident should force it to do a better job in the future.

Next, China tonight (December 13, 2025 in China) continued its annual end-of-year ramp up of launches, placing the first Dear-5 recoverable capsule into orbit, its Kuaizhou-11 rocket lifting off from its Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China. This capsule is comparable to Russia’s Bion capsule, designed to be used for research in orbit for return to Earth for sale.

China’s state-run press made no mention where the rocket’s lower stages crashed inside China.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

164 SpaceX
83 China (a new record)
15 Rocket Lab
15 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 164 to 135.

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Leftist lawsuit against beach closures at Boca Chica appealed to higher Texas court

10:59 am

The leftist anti-Musk activists groups have now appealed the dismissal of their lawsuit against the law allowing more frequent beach closures at Boca Chica for Starship/Superheavy launches.

The lawsuit was filed by Save the Rio Grande Valley (SaveRGV), the Sierra Club, and the Carrizo/Comecrudo Nation of Texas against Cameron County, the Texas General Land Office, Texas Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham, and the Texas attorney general. When the case was reviewed by the lower court in Cameron county, it dismissed it entirely, saying the activist groups had no standing and had failed to show any harm from the law.

The activists then appealed to a higher court.

The Thirteenth Court of Appeals found the Plaintiffs have standing and that immunity had been waived for each Defendant. The case was remanded to the trial court to proceed on the merits, but Defendants appealed the Thirteenth Court’s ruling to the Supreme Court of Texas.

Oral arguments before the Supreme Court of Texas will occur on January 13, 2026. In the more rational world of America until two decades ago, the case would be thrown out again, since the law that initially limited these beach closures was legally revised by the state legislature.launches. Just because these leftists don’t like it doesn’t mean they and the courts have the right to cancel legal legislation.

We no longer live in that more rational American world, however. Politics now rule, and it is leftist politics that most often win, regardless of the law or rationality.

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Iraq and SpaceX close to signing Starlink deal

9:28 am

Meetings this week between SpaceX officials and the Iraqi government appear to have finalized an agreement that would allow Starlink to be marketed inside Iraq.

The meeting on Thursday concluded with discussions on “the final procedures related to granting satellite internet licenses, including the license designated for SpaceX, as well as avenues for strengthening cooperation in the telecommunications sector, the services provided by the company, and its prospective coverage areas,” the statement added.

It is not clear if the deal has been signed, or is simply written and still needs review. Based on the little information provided, it sounds as if SpaceX will be marketing its terminals directly to Iraqi citizens. I suspect however that some Iraqi government entity will demand a cut, and might even demand the right to do the marketing itself, as a number of other nations have done.

Regardless, Starlink continues to expand worldwide, and in doing so makes censorship increasingly difficult for the petty power-hungry thugs that run many of these third world nations. And when Amazon Leo begins operations, that censorship will become even more difficult.

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Avio to build $500 million rocket facility in Virginia

9:18 am

The Italian rocket company Avio has selected Virginia as the location where it will build a $500 million solid-fueled rocket facility as part of establishing its American-based division.

Italian rocket builder Avio has announced that it has selected the state of Virginia to build its planned US-based production facility. The $500 million project forms part of the company’s expansion of its defence business.

Avio founded its wholly owned US subsidiary, Avio USA, in 2022 to capitalise on a market opportunity created by constrained solid rocket motor production capacity relative to surging demand for tactical propulsion solutions. Since then, the company has signed contracts with the US Armed Forces, Raytheon, and Lockheed Martin.

Avio presently builds the Vega-C solid-fueled rocket, which until this year was managed and controlled by the European Space Agency’s (ESA) commercial division, Arianespace. That arrangement however is ending. Beginning next year, Arianespace will be out of the picture. Avio is already marketing its own rocket, as indicated above, and as part of that process the company has been expanding operations, such as creating this U.S. division.

And for Avio this situation presents a great opportunity. The only company producing solid-fueled rockets and missiles in the U.S. appears to be Northrop Grumman, and the lack of competition has made its rockets expensive. There is room for competition. Moreover, the decisions of the Biden administration to provide the Ukraine a very large percentage of the Pentagon’s missile stock means there is a big need to replenish those stocks.

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Turkey begins construction of spaceport in Somalia

9:07 am

Somalia

According to statements by one Turkish official this week, his nation has begun building its own spaceport on the southeast coast of Somalia at a location not yet specified.

Türkiye has begun construction of a space launch facility in Somalia, marking the country’s entry into an exclusive group of nations with oceanside spaceports, Board Chairman of Baykar Selcuk Bayraktar announced on Thursday. “Türkiye now has a space launch station. Normally, you need to be by the ocean. Türkiye has a 30 kilometer by 30 kilometer area in Somalia,” Bayraktar said during a panel at Take Off İstanbul 2025. “When you have oceanside access, you can deploy launch vehicles, meaning you have a spaceport. There are 12 such places in the world. Because Somalia is part of our heartland geography, there will be a space station there,” he noted.

This plan has been in the works since earlier this year, though few real details (such as its specific location) have not been released. It appears however that Turkey wants to use it to test both ballistic missiles and eventually launch orbital rockets. The location on the coast will permit test flights of bigger missiles that Turkey cannot do from its present test sites inside Turkey.

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China launches nine more Guowang internet-of-things satellites

8:56 pm

China today successfully launched another nine internet-of-things satellites for the Guowang (or SatNet) constellation, its Long March 12 rocket lifting off from its coastal Wenchang spaceport.

China’s state-run press did not reveal the number of satellites, but the previous three Long March 12 launches that carried Guowang satellites all launched nine, so I think it is safe to assume nine launched today as well. This was the sixteenth launch for this constellation, which now has about 119 satellites in orbit, with a planned 13,000 once complete.

The Long March 12 is expendable. Though the launch proceeded over the ocean, one drop zone for the rocket’s lower stages was in the Philippines, where authorities warned its citizens to avoid those zones and to exercise caution if they see any likely rocket debris.

An upgraded version, the Long March 12A, with a first stage designed to land vertically and be reused, is scheduled to launch sometime in the next two weeks.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

164 SpaceX
82 China (a new record)
15 Rocket Lab
15 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 164 to 134.

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French startup The Exploration Company now building an in-orbit servicing spacecraft

12:28 pm

The French startup The Exploration Company, which has been developing an unmanned cargo spacecraft called Nyx to supply the commercial space stations under development, has now also gotten funds from the European Space Agency (ESA) to build an in-orbit spacecraft designed to provide refueling and servicing capabilities as well.

More information here.

In a 25 November update on its progress with an ESA-funded project, the company revealed that it is also working on a spacecraft called Oura, designed to refuel satellites in orbit, thereby extending their operational lifespan.

…As part of the 25 November update, the company announced that it had been awarded a Phase B2 contract for the InSPoC-1 programme. The Phase B2 development of the project will include activities up to Technology Readiness Level 6, which represents the development of a prototype and its demonstration in a relevant environment.

Once again, this contract from ESA is radically different than its past policy of building and owning everything itself. Instead, it is hiring this French company to develop this capability, which this French company will then own and be able to sell for profits to others.

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Pentagon decides New Glenn must fly four times before its certifies it for military launches

11:33 am

Pentagon officials yesterday announced that before it will certify Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket for commercial military payloads, it must complete two more successful orbital launches, for a total of four flights.

Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket will have to complete four successful orbital flights as its pathway to certification under the U.S. Space Force’s National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program, Lt. Gen. Philip Garrant said Dec. 10 at the Spacepower conference. Garrant, who leads the Space Systems Command, said Blue Origin selected the four-flight benchmark and the government agreed. “The government is supporting a four-flight certification for New Glenn,” he told reporters. The rocket has logged two successful missions so far, and Garrant said a third launch is expected “earlier in the new year than later.” If upcoming flights stay on track, he added, “I think they’re going to be in a fantastic place to become our third certified provider and compete for missions.”

If certified, Blue Origin would join SpaceX and United Launch Alliance as the Space Force’s third heavy-lift launch provider.

It is surprising that the military is requiring four successful flights from Blue Origin, but required only two from ULA’s new Vulcan rocket, and certified that even though there were problems on Vulcan’s second flight.

These extra flights should not cause a significant delay, since Blue Origin is expecting to complete a number of launches in 2026 to meet its obligations under its Amazon Leo contract

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Chinese astronauts complete spacewalk inspecting damaged Shenzhou capsule

12:53 pm

Two Chinese astronauts yesterday completed their first spacewalk since arriving on China’s Tiangong-3 space station, during which they inspected the damaged viewport on the Shenzhou-20 capsule as well as installed a cover to protective that damage when the capsule returns to Earth.

Shenzhou-21 mission commander Zhang Lu and rookie crewmate Wu Fei began an extravehicular activity (EVA) at 9:28 p.m. Eastern, Dec. 8 (0228 UTC, Dec. 9), when Zhang opened the Wentian experiment module airlock hatch and exited the Tiangong space station.

The more than eight-hour EVA concluded at 5:42 a.m. Eastern (1042 UTC) Dec. 9, with the pair safely back inside Tiangong. Zhang and Wu, wearing Feitian EVA suits with red and blue markings respectively, were assisted by the space station’s robotic arm, crewmate Zhang Hongzhang from inside Tiangong, and teams in mission control. New, upgraded Feitian suits were delivered to Tiangong via the July Tianzhou-9 cargo mission.

The first series of tasks centered on the Shenzhou-20 spacecraft, the return module of which suffered a suspected debris impact to a viewport window, rendering the spacecraft unsafe to return its three-astronaut crew to Earth in early November. At around 12:19 a.m. Eastern, Zhang Lu approached the viewport window of the Shenzhou-20 return module while attached to the Tiandong robotic arm and photographed and assessed the damage.

China has said that the damage was caused by a millimeter-sized object that impacted at high speed. It has yet however to release any images of the damage, and provided no other details.

Thus, we still do not know the damage’s exact nature, other than what that state-run press has told us. It could very well be that this damage was caused by some other factor that China does not wish to reveal.

NOTE: This is a recreation of a post published on December 10, 2025 that was lost during this morning’s server outage.

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Unconfirmed anonymous sources at Reuters and Bloomberg claim SpaceX is planning a public stock offering

12:46 pm

Two stories from Reuters and Bloomberg yesterday suggest Elon Musk is considering making SpaceX a publicly traded company, with an initial stock offering sometime in 2026. From the Reuters’ report:

Elon Musk’s SpaceX is looking to raise more than $25 billion through an initial public offering in 2026, a move that could boost the rocket-maker’s valuation to over $1 trillion, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday. The company’s move towards a public listing, which could rank among the largest global IPOs, has been largely driven by the rapid expansion of its Starlink satellite internet business, including plans for direct-to-mobile service and progress in its Starship rocket program for moon and Mars missions.

SpaceX has started discussions with banks about launching the offering around June or July, the person said, requesting anonymity to discuss confidential information.

Since both stories rely entirely on anonymous sources, we should not take either very seriously. I only post this now merely to put it on the record. And though Elon Musk has since hinted there might be some truth to both, he has also been very vague about his plans. While a public offering would garner him a lot of cash, it would bring with it a lot of regulatory headaches that would seriously interfere with what he wants to do. In the end I think (and hope) he will decide it ain’t worth it. Starlink right now is bringing in enough money to allow him to accomplish everything, and more.

If anything, these stories illustrate again the corruption in our modern propaganda press. Such stories would have been considered junk four decades ago. Then it was traditional practice that a story needed at least two independent sources, one of which was not anonymous. No longer. Anyone can push any lie, and these news outlets will publicize it, for the sake of clicks.

NOTE: This is a recreation of a post published on December 10, 2025 that was lost during this morning’s server outage.

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SpaceX completes its 11th launch this year for the National Reconnaissance Office

1:46 pm

SpaceX today successfully placed its 11th payload into orbit this year for the National Reconnaissance Office, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

The first stage completed its fourth flight, landing back at Cape Canaveral. The rocket’s two fairings were both new, flying their first mission.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

162 SpaceX (a new record)
79 China
15 Rocket Lab
15 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 162 to 131.

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Academia makes its first comprehensive attempt to plan science missions to Mars using Starship

1:28 pm

Figure 2-2 from the NAS report
Figure 2-2 from the National Academies
of Science report

A new report released today by the National Academies of Science, entitled “Highest Priority Science for the First Human Missions to Mars,” is essentially the first attempt by the planetary science community to plan its future science missions to Mars using the gigantic capabilities that SpaceX’s Starship is expected to provide them.

You can download the report here.

Even though the report made the search for life on Mars its big priority — a bugaboo that NASA and the science community trots out repeatedly to garner clicks from the ignorant propaganda press — this report is radically different then all previous similar NASA studies proposing future Mars exploration, as indicated by the graphics from figure 2-2 of the report to the right. Unlike those past studies, which were badly limited by the inadequate capabilities of any spacecraft NASA could send to Mars, this new report recognizes how much the game is changed by SpaceX’s Starship.

First, the new panel did not attempt to place any limit on any landing zones. Earlier reports had forbidden landings in the high latitudes or high altitudes because of the risks to NASA’s proposed landers. Starship overcomes much of those risks, giving researchers much greater flexibility.

Second, the focus of the missions will not be solely devoted to scientific or geological research, as had been the case for all previous similar reports by NASA and the academic community. Instead, the proposed research goals includes important engineering and human exploration requirements outside of science, including efforts to use the resources on Mars itself as well as find locations better suited for human habitation. Once again, the vastly greater capabilities of Starship influenced this change.

Even more important, the study doesn’t assume the future missions will be unmanned, as all previous NASA reports have done. In fact, it does the opposite, proposing multiple 30-day manned missions, as shown in the graphic. One set of three missions would go to three different locations, while another set of three missions would focus on one place in particular.

Much of this shift towards manned flight I think stemmed from the presence on the panel of representatives from the private companies SpaceX and The Exploration Company (a French startup), as well as an engineer from the National Academy of Engineering. Previously studies were almost always entirely dominated by planetary scientists, so the goals outlined were always focused on their interests. Now the idea of human exploration has become prevalent.

The panel’s work was clearly also influenced by the realization that SpaceX’s Starship is not only far more capable, its first flights are just around the corner. SpaceX plans sending it numerous times to Mars in the very near future, as shown in the graphic below that Elon Musk released during a presentation in May 2025.
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