Tag: competition

ArianeGroup confirms it is targeting about six Ariane-6 launches in 2026

10:46 am

According to an official with ArianeGroup, the company that builds and owns the Ariane-6 rocket, it hopes in 2026 to double the launch rate from 2025, from four this year to as many as eight launches next.

The Group is ramping up production at its sites in France and Germany for this purpose. The main stage will be manufactured in Les Mureaux, France, and the upper stage in Bremen, Germany. The latter is considered the heart and brain of the rocket, as it is responsible for controlling the final flight section and reaching the target.

In Bremen, the Group developed a serial production process – similar to assembly line production in car manufacturing. Six upper stages are to be produced in parallel at the plant in future. Ten to twelve upper stages are to be completed and delivered each year. “The target of around ten missions per year should be achieved by 2027,” said Franzeck.

Franzeck’s prediction matches that made two weeks ago by the head of Arianespace, which manages Ariane-6 for ArianeGroup.

It is likely that these companies will get at least six launches off in 2026. Whether they can achieve eight is less likely, based on their past recent record. Reaching 10 launches in 2027 is probably more certain however. They have a big 18-launch contract with Amazon to launch its Amazon LEO satellites (formerly Kuiper), and there is great pressure to achieve those launches quickly because of Amazon’s FCC license requirements.

After this however the future of Ariane-6 remains uncertain. It is too expense (being expendable) to compete in the present launch market. Few European companies want to buy it, and there are numerous new reusable rockets about to begin operations.

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India tests new and better restart method for upper stage of its biggest rocket

9:58 am

India’s space agency ISRO has successfully tested new restart method for the engine it uses on the upper stage of its LVM rocket, its biggest rocket that it also intends to use for its manned and interplanetary missions.

For future missions, multiple in-flight restarts of the CE20 engine will be required for mission flexibility towards multi-orbit missions. However, with the present configuration, each restart demands an additional start-up gas bottle and associated systems, leading to a reduction in vehicle payload capability. Hence, achieving boot-strap mode start – where the engine builds up to steady operation without external start-up assistance – is essential.

In this regard, a boot-strap mode start test on the CE20 Cryogenic engine was successfully conducted under vacuum conditions in the High-Altitude Test (HAT) facility at ISRO Propulsion Complex, Mahendragiri on 7th November 2025, for a duration of 10 seconds. A multi-element igniter was employed in both the thrust chamber and gas generator to facilitate boot-strap starting. In this test, following the ignition of the thrust chamber, the gas generator was ignited under tank head conditions, and the turbopumps were started without the use of the start-up system. Subsequently, boot-strap mode build-up and steady-state operation of the engine were successfully demonstrated.

In other words, the engine now be restarted numerous times, giving any payload attached much greater flexibility in positioning and orbital maneuvers. For manned missions this means it can be used to reposition the modules for India’s planned space station, maneuver its manned capsule Gaganyaan, and send interplanetary missions to the Moon and beyond.

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More criticism and opposition to Europe’s proposed space law

9:47 am

The European Union
This label would be more accurate if it read
“NOT made in the European Union”

At a conference in Germany this week, officials from the U.S. and several European countries expressed strong reservations about a proposed new European space law that would impose significant regulations on satellite and rocket companies, even if they are not European-based.

The objections by the American representative merely underlined the opposition already expressed by the State Department two weeks ago, when it said the law placed ““unacceptable regulatory burdens on U.S. providers of space services to European customers.”

Objections however were also expressed by officials from the United Kingdom and Liechtenstein. The latter’s comments also suggested further opposition should be expected from other European nations as well.

Liechtenstein is not a member of the EU but is part of the European Economic Area (EEA), said Bianca Lins, lead for space in the Liechtenstein Office for Communications. Since the EU Space Act covers issues like a single market for space services in Europe, “it’s going to be incorporated into the EEA agreement and also means we have to transpose it into national law.”

Her concern, she said, is that the act “does not really consider the international obligations that every sovereign state has,” including responsibilities under the Outer Space Treaty. She expected Liechtenstein, Iceland and Norway — the other EEA states outside the EU — to submit comments on those issues.

The law has also been condemned by companies in the U.S. as well as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

It is unclear however if the European Union is reconsidering the bill. If it passes it will do significant harm. One possibility is that American companies will pull much of their satellite and launch business out of Europe. And if they do not, it will likely cause them to defy the law, with State Department backing. The EU has no right to impose its rules on American companies.

If the latter occurs, it will thus set a significant legal precedent that suggests the European Union is a toothless non-entity with no real legal power. I suspect this threat above all will force the EU to reconsider the bill.

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Canada commits a half billion to European Space Agency projects

8:53 am

During a conference yesterday, Canada’s industry minister Mélanie Joly announced that her government has increased its budget for European Space Agency (ESA) projects to a total of $528 million over the next three to five years.

This funding increases is quite significant, approximately ten times greater than Canada’s previous budget commitments to ESA projects.

Few details were provided on how the money would be spent.

Joly said the investment would advance research and development of Canadian-made space technologies for both civilian and defence purposes. These include satellite communications, Earth observation, space exploration, positioning, navigation and timing, and space situational awareness, she said.

While most of the western world is shifting to the capitalism model, where the government buys what it needs from products owned by the private sector, it appears the present leftwing Canadian government under Mark Carney is moving instead in the direction of the Soviet model, whereby the government builds and owns the projects itself. This ESA commitment falls into that latter category, at least on the surface. Much however will depend on how ESA and Canada eventually decide to spend the cash.

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SpaceX and China complete launches

11:35 pm

Two launches on opposites sides of the globe this evening.

First, SpaceX launched another 29 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral. The first stage completed its 12th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

Next (November 19th local time), China placed three classified satellites into orbit, its Long March 2C rocket lifting off from its Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China. China’s state-run press would only say the satellites were for “space environment exploration and related technology verification,” an utterly meaningless statement. That state-run press also said nothing about where the rocket’s lower stages, using very toxic hypergolic fuels, crashed inside China.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

151 SpaceX (a new record)
71 China (a new record)
14 Rocket Lab
13 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 151 to 118.

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Mexican anti-Musk activists whine about SpaceX’s Boca Chica launch operations

1:27 pm

Chicken Little is once again panicking
Chicken Little is once again panicking

Mexican anti-Musk activists have now announced new complaints against SpaceX’s Boca Chica launch operations, claiming the soft-splash down of its Superheavy boosters in the Gulf of Mexico is damaging marine life, and the company’s effort to remove its stage and debris is further damaging the ocean floor.

Conibio Global A.C., a marine biodiversity organization in Mexico, launched “Expedition Booster 2025” this summer in partnership with the state of Tamaulipas and the Universidad Autónoma de Tamaulipas. The group is studying how booster landings near Playa Bagdad may be affecting wildlife and nearby communities. “We have 20 kilometers of space debris, which amounts to tons,” said Jesus Elias Ibarra Rodriguez, president of Conibio Global A.C. “If you go right now, you’ll find three or five pieces of plastic or metal or electrical parts from the thruster, even tanks—there is already a lot of debris.”

Researchers report that sea turtles and dolphins often mistake smaller debris for food, which can lead to deadly ingestion. They also documented debris fragments measuring between two and 10 meters long. According to the group, 3-D sonar imaging shows that a platform used in July to remove debris may have caused additional damage to the seafloor. “This platform has three structures that were sunk and anchored to the seafloor,” Rodriguez said. “During the investigation, we realized that it caused damage and holes when its structures were wedged in while removing the engines, and the engines were damaging the seabed and the species that live in the area.”

In other words, SpaceX is evil for dropping Superheavy in the Gulf, and it is also evil for removing it. Or to put this in real terms, these activists simply don’t want SpaceX to do anything. Their goal is to shut the company down entirely.

Moreover, their research is clearly bogus and overwrought. The entire world has been dropping lower stages in the oceans for more than three-quarters of a century, with no documented harm to marine life or the oceans. These faux scientists are simply puffing up their work to use this as a hammer against SpaceX.

Their complaint meanwhile appears somewhat bogus as well. They are “in communication” with Mexican authorities, and only “plan to present [their] findings” to that government eventually. In other words, their complaint hasn’t been filed with the government, but with our compliant propaganda press (in this case a local Texas news outlet), who are always glad to push the leftist agenda, no matter how idiotic.

Hat tip to Robert Pratt of Pratt on Texas.

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German rocket startup Isar wins another launch contract

9:43 am

Isar's first launch attempt fails
Spectrum falling seconds after its launch
in March 2025

The German rocket startup Isar Aerospace today won a new launch contract from the satellite aggregator SEOPS for a 2028 launch of its new Spectrum rocket.

SEOPS today announced during SpaceTech Expo it has purchased a dedicated launch on Isar Aerospace’s ‘Spectrum’ rocket. Targeted for launch in 2028, this marks SEOPS’ first collaboration with Isar Aerospace, expanding the company’s European launch capabilities.

SEOPS acts as an agent for satellite companies building small cubesats, arranging the launches for them because these companies often don’t have the resources or experience to do the job themselves. The choice of Isar’s Spectrum rocket suggests SEOPS wants to encourage new launch options, since Isar has only launched Spectrum once, and that launch was a failure. This contract acts to strengthen Isar’s future by giving it a powerful customer. It also gives SEOPS a European launch option, something that will attract European smallsat makers to it.

Isar is presently preparing Spectrum for its second launch out of Norway’s Andoya spaceport, with road closure announcements suggesting it will occur prior to December 21, 2025. If successful Isar will be the first new European rocket company in decades to reach orbit. It will also be the first German company to do so, ever. And it will give Andoya spaceport first place in the race to become Europe’s first orbital spaceport.

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Blue Origin targeting from 12 to 24 New Glenn launches in 2026

9:22 am

New Glenn prior to its first launch in January 2025
New Glenn on the launchpad prior to its
first launch in January 2025

Following the second successful launch last week of its New Glenn rocket, including a successful recovery of its first stage, Blue Origin’s CEO David Limp says the company’s goal for 2026 will be to attempt between 12 and 24 launches.

Limp said success on New Glenn’s second flight would set the company up for a significant increase in cadence. The company is building enough hardware for “well above” a dozen flights in 2026, with the upper-end limit of 24 launches. The pacing item is second stages. Right now Blue Origin can build one per month, but the production rate is increasing.

A pace of one launch a month would be unprecedented for Blue Origin in numerous ways. Since 2017 the company has built a poor reputation for slow and tentative operations. It took years for it to finally begin building BE-4 engines at a rate that could serve both it and its customer ULA. It took years to get New Glenn off the ground, a half decade later than initially announced. Moving from a lazy tortoise to a enthusiastic hare so quickly would thus seem very unlikely.

Blue Origin however has a major 27-launch contract with Amazon to launch its Amazon LEO constellation (formerly known as “Kuiper”). And Amazon desperately needs those launches to happen soon, as it only has 154 satellites in orbit and needs to get about another 1400 launched by July 2026 to meet its FCC license.

Even so, Limp noted that the next New Glenn launch will be to send its Blue Moon Mark-1 unmanned lunar lander to the Moon, and the best schedule he could offer was a launch sometime in the first quarter of ’26. If so, his prediction for the total launches in 2026 seems overly optimistic, at a minimum.

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Will China launch a rescue Shenzhou capsule to Tiangong-3 in one week?

9:07 am

The Tiangong-3 station, as presently configured
The Tiangong-3 station, as presently configured

According to this report at Space News late yesterday, China has issued a road closure notice for its Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China suggesting it will launch a Long March 2F rocket carrying a rescue Shenzhou capsule to Tiangong-3 on November 25, 2025, one week from today.

An airspace closure notice issued Nov. 17 indicates that China is preparing the Shenzhou-22 spacecraft and a Long March 2F rocket for launch at around 11:10 p.m. Eastern Nov. 24 (0410 UTC, Nov. 25) from Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in the Gobi Desert. China’s human spaceflight agency has yet to publicly announce the plan. [emphasis mine]

This rescue mission is necessary because the Shenzhou-20 capsule that brought the previous crew to the station is now unusable, having sustained damage in one window from an impact of “space debris.” That crew came back to Earth last week on the Shenzhou-21 that ferried the present crew to space, leaving that present crew without a lifeboat.

The highlighted sentence is important, because it is very possible that road closure notice could be for a different launch not yet announced by China. It is quite routine for China to keep the specifics of a launch secret until the last minute, which means it is dangerous to assume this road closure is specifically for the Long March 2F rocket set to carry the Shenzhou-22 capsule to Tiangong-3.

Previous reports only yesterday had noted that preparing that rocket and capsule would likely take at a minimum 10 to 20 days, and even that schedule would be “difficult.” Getting ready in only one week thus seems unlikely.

At the same time, there is great urgency to launch, as the three-person crew presently on Tiangong-3 has no lifeboat there should anything serious go wrong.

Expect China’s state-run press to clarify the situation, when it decides to do so.

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Echostar subsidiary Hughesnet now sending its customers to Starlink

8:01 am

Following the purchase by SpaceX of much of Echostar’s spectrum, its subsidiary Hughesnet appears to be on the verge of shutting down as it is now referring its present and future customers to Starlink.

Hughesnet is preparing to refer its own customers to rival Starlink after its parent company, EchoStar, reached a deal to sell radio spectrum to SpaceX. The referral program is mentioned in a 10-Q SEC filing that Hughesnet released on Friday. The 66-page document includes a section about the EchoStar-SpaceX deal and what it means for Hughesnet’s business. “The commercial agreements will also provide for a fee-based referral program that lets us refer existing HughesNet customers and new Starlink customers to SpaceX,” the document says, without elaborating.

The article also notes that the company lacks the cash on hand to function over the next 12 months, and has lost more than half its customer base in the past year.

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Thailand rejects Starlink

9:18 am

Because of local laws forbidding the operation of any foreign-owned telecommunications company in Thailand, its government has rejected any sale of Starlink terminals inside the country.

The Digital Economy and Society Ministry has rejected a proposal from SpaceX to provide Starlink low-orbit satellite internet services in Thailand through a 100% foreign-owned company, citing national security concerns and legal restrictions. “If the company wants to set up a wholly owned firm, there will be no opportunity … to cooperate, as telecom ownership is directly linked to our digital security system,” minister Chaichanok Chidchob said on Friday.

This is the same problem that SpaceX has faced in a number of other third world countries, such as India and South Africa. In South Africa the government demanded SpaceX give up some or all of its ownership rights as well as impose a variety of racial or employment quotas that SpaceX considers unacceptable. Thus, no Starlink. In the case of India, the government insisted that its own telecom companies get a cut. SpaceX then managed to negotiate deals with each, where those companies market the Starlink terminals for SpaceX.

Apparently, no such deal has yet been worked out in Thailand.

Expect a deal eventually, however. The article notes that Thailand’s neighbor Vietnam has a Starlink deal allowing its citizens to sign up without restrictions. That agreement is going to put great pressure on Thailand

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Europe finalizes transfer of Vega-C rocket back to its builder, Italian company Avio

9:05 am

European Space Agency logo

In an agreement signed on November 14, 2025, the European Space Agency (ESA) completed the transfer of the Vega-C rocket, formerly controlled by the government-owned company Arianespace, back to the Italian company Avio.

Following decisions taken by the ESA Council in 2023, the revision of the Launchers Exploitation Declaration (LED) was finalized on 10 July 2025 and the Guiana Space Centre Agreement was signed on 23 October 2025. The LEAs signed today translate the LED mandate to ESA into concrete detailed implementation arrangements between ESA and the launch operators.

The two arrangements signed today – one with Arianespace and ArianeGroup for Ariane 6, and one with Avio for Vega-C – define the roles and responsibilities of each operator and ESA’s role in monitoring its implementation. They also establish the framework for cooperation between the parties to ensure Europe’s continued autonomous access to space through the exploitation of ESA-developed launchers from Europe’s Spaceport in French Guiana.

The quote above also details other changes. The Ariane-6 rocket is now controlled by a partnership of Arianespace and ArianeGroup, with the bulk of control by the latter, a private company that owns the rocket. Though Arianespace retains some management rights, its part in the rocket’s future has been reduced significantly.

Meanwhile, ownership and control of the French Guiana spaceport has now been transferred entirely from Arianespace and back to France’s space agency CNES. CNES has been running things more or less for the past year or so, but this makes the change official.

All in all, these agreements continue ESA’s shift in the past two years away from the government-run model, centralized under Arianespace control, to the capitalism model, where the government is merely a customer, buying what it needs from independent, competing, privately-owned companies. While these agreements highlight Avio and ArianeGroup, Europe also has a flock of new rocket startups (Isar, Rocket Factory Augsburg, PLD) on verge of their first launches.

If Europe maintains its commitment to this shift, it should see some exciting developments in space in the coming years.

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