Tag: competition

China begins hurried preparations to launch rescue Shenzhou capsule to Tiangong-3

6:01 am

The Tiangong-3 station, as presently configured
The Tiangong-3 station, as presently configured

According to China’s state run press, it has begun emergency procedures to quickly launch the Shenzhou-22 capsule — originally scheduled to carry the next crew to its Tiangong-3 station in April 2026 — in order to provide the present station crew a lifeboat and a return capsule.

The China Manned Space Agency has started preparations for the launch of an unmanned spacecraft to carry a full cargo load, including provisions for astronauts and equipment for the Tiangong space station, according to a senior engineer. Zhou Yaqiang, who works with the agency’s general technical bureau, told China Central Television on Saturday that all systems involved in the upcoming Shenzhou-22 cargo mission “are busy getting ready for it, testing the rocket and the spaceship and preparing the payloads”.

The Shenzhou-22 spacecraft will be launched in due course to dock with the Tiangong space station, the agency said.

The report provided no details on when this launch would occur, though another Chinese report said getting the rocket (a Long March 2F) and capsule ready in the next 10 to 20 days would be “difficult.”

At the moment, the three astronauts on Tiangong-3 have no lifeboat. Should anything go wrong at the station before that launch they will have no way to get back to Earth, unless they use the damaged Shenzhou-21 capsule still docked to the station. That capsule has cracks in a window, caused by what the Chinese think was an impact from “space debris.” The Chinese have already determined it is not safe for human travel. Thus, using it in an emergency would be a desperate act.

Since the first space station, Salyut-1, was launched and occupied in 1971, this is the first time that a crew has been in space with absolutely no way to get home. The press last year repeatedly claimed the Starliner crew was “stranded” on ISS, but that wasn’t so. They could have always come home on their Starliner craft, as was proven when it returned unmanned with no problems. NASA had simply made the decision to be cautious and wait for the launch of next Dragon to bring them home instead.

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SpaceX launches NASA ocean radar satellite

10:56 pm

SpaceX tonight successfully launched Sentinal-6B, a NASA radar satellite designed to measure the global sea level, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base.

The first stage completed its 3rd flight, landing back at Vandenberg.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

150 SpaceX (a new record)
70 China
14 Rocket Lab
13 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 150 to 117.

Note that until SpaceX began to up its launch rate significantly in 2022, the entire global rocket industry — run entirely by governments — never completed more than 135 successful launches in a single year, and usually failed to make 100 launches. SpaceX is now proving that those global numbers over more than a half century were indicative of the failure of those governments. Those governments controlled everything, and so they prevented innovation, competition, and new ideas.

The transition to capitalism and freedom since 2010 has finally begun to open up space for everyone.

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Two more SpaceX launches

1:15 pm

SpaceX yesterday completed two launches, placing a total of 58 Starlink satellites into orbit.

First, a Falcon 9 lifted off from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, carrying 29 Starlink satellites. The first stage completed its 8th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

Four hours later, a second Falcon 9 lifted off from Cape Canaveral, carrying another 29 Starlink satellites. Its first stage completed its 24th flight, also landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

149 SpaceX
70 China
14 Rocket Lab
13 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 149 to 117.

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The orbital propulsion module for India’s Chandrayaan-3 lunar lander drifts back into lunar orbit

3:48 pm

When India’s Chandrayaan-3 spacecraft arrived in lunar orbit in August 2023, it separated into three units, the lander, a lunar orbiter, and a propulsion unit used to get everything to the Moon.

While the Vikram lander successfully touched down several hundred miles from the Moon’s south pole and the Chandrayaan-3 orbiter continues to make observations of the Moon, in October 2023 engineers had the propulsion module do a burn that sent it out of lunar orbit and into an Earth orbit that was close to one of the Lagrange points where the gravity of the Earth and Moon are balanced.

Now, three years later, that module has drifted back into lunar orbit, where it has since done two close fly-bys of the surface.

This intricate orbital dance culminated when the module once again entered the Moon’s SOI [sphere of influence] on November 4, 2025, an event marking the transition where lunar gravity dominates its motion.

The first recorded lunar flyby occurred on November 6, 2025, at a distance of 3,740 km from the lunar surface, though it was outside the Indian Deep Space Network’s (IDSN) visibility range. A second, closely monitored flyby took place on November 11, 2025, bringing the module within 4,537 km of the Moon and well within observation capabilities.

These events noticeably altered the satellite’s orbital parameters, expanding its orbit size from 100,000 x 300,000 km to a massive 409,000 x 727,000 km and shifting its inclination from 34° to 22°.

It is not clear what happens next. Having this module in lunar orbit could be an issue for present and later orbiters, as no orbit around the Moon can ever be stable. At some point India’s space agency ISRO needs to properly dispose of this unit, either by sending into the Moon or out of the Moon-Earth system entirely. I am of course assuming it has the fuel to do so.

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Bezos releases new video of the New Glenn first stage landing yesterday

3:35 pm

Jeff Bezos, founder of Blue Origin, today released on X new footage showing from a distance the full landing sequence of New Glenn’s first stage on a barge in the Atlantic.

I have embedded it below. It is quite spectacular, and suggests the Blue Origin team can match SpaceX’s team in controlling a landing spacecraft. The stage comes down several hundred feet to the side of the barge, hovers, and then slides sideways to touch down exactly on target. As Bezos notes:

We nominally target a few hundred feet away from Jacklyn to avoid a severe impact if engines fail to start or start slowly. We’ll incrementally reduce that conservatism over time.

This is not unlike the landing maneuver performed by Starship prior to capture by the tower chopsticks. If Blue Origin can do it also, it means it has capabilities it has been hiding for the past decade due to its slow and timid testing/launching pace.
» Read more

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China’s Shenzhou-20 crew on Tiangong-3 returns on Shenzhou-21 capsule

11:27 am

The Tiangong-3 station, as presently configured
The Tiangong-3 station, as presently configured

After about a week of analysis, China today announced that the Shenzhou-20 capsule was too badly damaged to bring its crew back from its Tiangong-3 space station.

In making that announcement China finally revealed some details about the damage.

Tiny cracks have been found in the return capsule’s viewport window, which are most probably caused by external impact from space debris, according to the [China Manned Space Agency (CMSA).]

To get that crew home, which had already spent almost seven months in orbit, China had them board the Shenzhou-21 capsule that had only launched two weeks earlier on October 31, 2025 and use it to return to Earth today.

This leaves the present three astronauts on Tiangong-3 without any way to get back to Earth should something go wrong with the station.

China apparently had limited options. It doesn’t have enough docking ports on Tiangong-3 to dock three Shenzhou capsules to it, so one capsule had to undock and leave the station to make room for a replacement capsule.

Undocking Shenzhou-21 however is puzzling. Why didn’t China instead undock the damaged Shenzhou-20 capsule and de-orbit it? Had it done so, the six astronauts would have had only one lifeboat for three, but the docking port would have been opened for a new rescue capsule. There have been indications that China is preparing the next Shenzhou-22 capsule and a Long March 2F rocket for launch, though China has not provided any information about when that launch will occur.

With Shenzhou-21 gone, the three remaining Tiangong-3 astronauts are truly stranded in space, with no way home.

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Amazon renames its proposed internet constellation from Kuiper to Amazon LEO

9:59 am

Amazon today announced that it has renamed its proposed internet constellation from the initial internal code name “Kuiper” to “Amazon LEO, to give “a simple nod” to its location in low Earth orbit.

Our long-term mission remains the same, and we’re making good progress against it. We now operate one of the largest satellite production lines on the planet. We’ve invented some of the most advanced customer terminals ever built, including the first commercial phased array antenna to support gigabit speeds. And we now have more than 150 satellites in orbit [154 to be exact], and customers and partners like JetBlue, L3Harris, DIRECTV Latin America, Sky Brasil, and NBN Co., Australia’s National Broadband Network operator, already signing up to deploy the service.

The company’s FCC license requires it to have 1,600 satellites in orbit by July 2026. To even get close to this number the three launch companies that have Amazon launch contracts, ULA (46 launches total), Arianespace (18 launches), and Blue Origin (27 launches) have got to start launching regularly. ULA has completed three launches, and promises to do many in 2026. Arianespace says it will begin launches in 2026. Blue Origin has said nothing, but the successfully launch yesterday of New Glenn suggests it will also begin Amazon launches in 2026.

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ULA’s Atlas-5 rocket launches Viasat communications satellite

8:40 pm

ULA tonight successfully launched a Viasat communications satellite, its Atlas-5 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

This was the fifth launch for ULA in 2025, matching its count from last year. For the past year the company has repeatedly promised a launch rate of once to twice a month, but as yet to do so. In fact, it hasn’t managed twelve launches in a year since 2016. Hopefully this will change in the coming year.

With this launch, ULA only has eleven Atlas-5s left in stock before the rocket is retired, with five of those launches for Amazon’s Kuiper constellation and six for Boeing’s Starliner manned capsule. While the Kuiper launches will almost certainly happen by the end of 2026, the Boeing Starliner missions are very much in limbo, as that capsule itself remains in limbo with it entirely unclear when it will carry astronauts again for NASA.

As this was only the fifth launch by ULA in 2025, the leader board for the 2025 launch race remains unchanged:

147 SpaceX
70 China
14 Rocket Lab
13 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 147 to 117.

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Sierra Space finally completes preflight tests of its Tenacity Dream Chaser mini-shuttle

2:56 pm

Tenacity undergoing recent tow tests
Tenacity undergoing recent tow tests.
Click for original image.

Sierra Space today announced that has finally completed the preflight ground tests of its Tenacity Dream Chaser mini-shuttle required prior to launch.

As part of its comprehensive testing campaign, Dream Chaser underwent Electromagnetic Interference and Electromagnetic Compatibility (EMI/EMC) testing at NASA’s Space Systems Processing Facility (SSPF). These tests verified the spacecraft’s ability to operate within expected electromagnetic environments throughout various missions.

The spacecraft also completed rigorous tow testing at KSC and Space Florida’s Launch and Landing Facility. For this phase, a Freightliner Cascadia truck, provided by Daimler Truck North America, towed the spaceplane at high speeds to simulate critical dynamics and validating autonomous navigational parameters during runway landing operations.

Additionally, Dream Chaser successfully demonstrated the ability to receive telemetry and distribute commands between the spacecraft and Mission Control in Louisville, Colorado over NASA’s Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System network. This key milestone tested the spacecraft’s readiness for real-time command and control during flight operations.

The testing campaign concluded with a post landing recovery rehearsal, which demonstrated the safing of vehicle systems and timely access to sensitive payloads. [emphasis mine]

The electromagnetic and telemetry began more than two years ago — along with standard vibration test — and under normal conditions should have been completed in only a few months. In fact, when that testing began the company expected to launch Tenacity to ISS on a Vulcan rocket sometime in 2024. While the vibration tests completed as expected, the other tests did not. Instead, we waited, and waited, and waited, with no word on the results, suggesting strongly that something had been found that made that launch impossible without significant changes.

The description of the tow tests that I highlighted above add further weight to this speculation. Such tow tests should have been done long before those final electromagnetic, telemetry, and vibration tests. To have to do such tow tests now suggests strongly that those ground tests found something wrong that required changes and further tow tests.

Though NASA has canceled its ISS cargo contract with Sierra using Tenacity, the company says it still plans to launch the mini-shuttle on an orbital demonstration mission late in 2026, with it landing back on a runway at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

Don’t put much money on this. This mini-shuttle was first proposed in 2014, and has been repeatedly delayed over and over again. It remains unclear whether it will ever launch.

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New Glenn successfully launches Escapade orbiters AND lands 1st stage

2:29 pm

New Glenn first stage after landing
New Glenn first stage after landing

Blue Origin today successfully placed two the NASA Escapade Mars orbiters into space, its New Glenn rocket launching for the second time from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

More significantly, the company successfully landed the rocket’s first stage on a barge in the Atlantic. New Glenn is now the second rocket company capable of vertically landing and recovering an orbital first stage, after SpaceX.

Several take-aways: First, this first stage recovery took place almost exactly a decade after Blue Origin successfully landed vertically its suborbital New Shepard rocket, and almost a decade after SpaceX successfully did it with its Falcon 9 orbital rocket. It is a shame that it took Blue Origin so long to get to this point. It is also magnificent that it has finally made it happen. The United States now has two reusable rockets, with two more (by Rocket Lab and Stoke Space) expected to launch by next year.

Blue Origin is not likely to reuse this particular first stage, but its recovery will make future reuses likely and soon.

Second, Blue Origin made one interesting broadcast choice that I like. It listed the rocket’s altitude and speed in feet/miles and miles per hour, not kilometers. The engineers might have been using metric, but the audience is American, so using the traditional Imperial numbers is smart. Good for Blue Origin.

Third, Blue Origin’s announcers were once again annoying, distracting, ignorant, and childishly emotional. And they simply would not shut up, preventing the audience from hearing critical reports from mission control. They also seemed oblivious to reality, bragging repeatedly about the ten year gap between the first New Shepard landing and this landing, as if this was somehow a good thing. It was embarrassing to listen to.

The company would do a far better job selling itself by hiring announcers who are more serious and professional. Sadly, I have noted this problem from Blue Origin’s announcers now for almost a decade, with little change.

Finally, this success is a very big deal, both for Blue Origin and the United States. The company is now primed to begin regular launches next year, including the 27 launches Amazon has purchased for its Kuiper constellation.

For the U.S., this finally gives us a solid competitor to SpaceX. And that competition is finally going to force launch prices to drop significantly. SpaceX dropped prices, but not as far as it could because there was no pressure to do so from anyone else. Now there is that pressure.

As this was only the second launch by Blue Origin in 2025, the leader board for the 2025 launch race remains unchanged:

147 SpaceX
70 China
14 Rocket Lab
13 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 147 to 116. Note that ULA hopes to launch its Atlas-5 rocket tonight.

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France’s president puts forth a new national space policy

10:43 am

Capitalism in space: In a speech yesterday France’s president Emmanuel Macron proposed a new national space policy with increased spending for defense and an increased focus on encouraging France’s private space sector. According to his speech, the strategy has five main goals:

  • Maintaining autonomous access to space – ensuring France and Europe retain the independent capability to launch and operate missions without external reliance.
  • Reassessing the industrial and commercial model – promoting competitiveness, public–private cooperation, and the growth of dual-use technologies. [emphasis mine]
  • Expanding strategic and defence capabilities – reinforcing surveillance, secure communications, and the protection of orbital assets against emerging threats.
  • Adopting a more assertive approach to science and exploration – increasing participation in international research missions and developing new exploration technologies.
  • Revitalising European space cooperation – through enhanced competitiveness, a “European preference” in procurement, and new models of governance.

The highlighted point is the most important. Macron clearly wants France’s aerospace industry to lead Europe in space, and to do so he is now officially abandoning his country’s long reliance on doing everything cooperatively through the European Space Agency (ESA) and its commercial arm, Arianespace.

This change has been on-going for the past two years, but Macron has now made it official. France will now do what NASA has been doing for the past fifteen years, shift from the government-run model to the capitalism model, where instead of having ESA and Arianespace build and own everything for France, France will buy what it needs from private European companies, with a emphasis on giving those contracts to French companies.

To do this Macron proposed a 30% increase in spending on civilian space projects through 2030, and a 70% increase in France’s defense budget for that same time period.

France has always had the strongest aerospace industry in Europe, but it has been shackled badly by Europe’s desire to do everything in partnership through a government-run agency, just as America’s space industry was shackled by NASA prior to 2010. If Macron follows through with this policy change, expect some great things from France in space in the coming decade.

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Is China preparing to return its stranded astronauts in its damaged Shenzhou capsule?

10:00 am

According to reports from China, it appears they are preparing to return the three-person Shenzhou-20 crew on their damaged Shenzhou-20 capsule on November 14, 2025, rather than launch a replacement capsule as had been rumored previously.

China has issued a temporary airspace restriction over Inner Mongolia for 3:20 to 3:50 a.m. Eastern (0820-0850 UTC, or 4:20-4:50 p.m. Beijing time) Nov. 14, according to a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) published by the Hohhot Flight Information Region under the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC).

The airspace closure notice matches an area covering the Dongfeng landing site, an area in Inner Mongolia roughly 60 to 90 kilometers to the east-southeast of the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, which has been used for all Shenzhou crewed spacecraft returns since 2021.

None of this is confirmed as yet, as China’s state-run press continues to be very secretive about this entire affair. It as yet not released any details about the damage to Shenzhou-20, nor has it been forthcoming with any details about the next steps it plans to take.

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