Tag: competition

Is the fate of the independent live streams in Boca Chica uncertain?

12:52 pm

My headline paraphrases this interesting, very detailed, and largely accurate article today from Texas Monthly. It outlines how the newly formed town of Starbase there has the power to block the many independent lives streams and tourist operations that have sprung up since SpaceX opened its facility in Boca Chica.

This proxy government also has the power to create zoning rules and enforce them. In July the city adopted a plan that leaves those with the closest views of the launchpads in violation of new zoning designations. The mainstay launch-day ticket sellers here—Rocket Ranch and a few others—operate in what’s now officially a residential area, near newly built homes for SpaceX executives. The same violation applies to the spots where the streamers have mounted their video cameras.

These cottage industries aren’t doomed. Texas law has grandfathering provisions that allow existing businesses to remain open after zoning changes. But Starbase city attorney Andy Messer raised eyebrows during a recent city commission meeting by saying that the grandfathering would be considered on a “case-by-case basis.” Hearing this, some property owners expressed hesitation to approach the city to ask if their status was in question. “I don’t want to poke the bear,” as one put it.

Will SpaceX force the town of Starbase to shut these independent operations down? The article describes the possibilities in great detail. The very nature of SpaceX and its founder, Elon Musk, suggests it won’t happen. The company thrives on openness and straight talk. Musk himself is a proven supporter of free speech and competition. It would be shocking if his company suddenly took a different position. Moreover, SpaceX, Starbase, or its residents (almost all of which are SpaceX employees) generally benefit from the good publicity of these independent operations, publicity that the company’s own employees enjoy.

Yet, Starbase is a company town, and the long history of such places is that with time, the company takes over and rules everything, allowing nothing that it does not control.

Stay tuned. Above all things won’t be dull in Boca Chica.

Hat tip Robert Pratt of Pratt on Texas.

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ESA looks to global private sector for its next ISS cargo mission

10:13 am

ESA logo

The European Space Agency (ESA) has issued a request for bids to launch a cargo mission to ISS by the fourth quarter of 2028, and its request will allow companies other than those in Europe to bid.

Published on 3 October, the call for the CSOC Cargo Commercially Procured Offset initiative outlines a single mission to transport 4,900 to 5,000 kilograms of pressurised cargo to the ISS.

… In the call’s “Letter of Invitation”, the agency stated that, due to regulatory requirements that include certifications provided by NASA, the competition would be open to economic operators from the United States. ESA did, however, add that preference would be given, to the “fullest extent possible”, to bids from its Member States.

While the call is set to close on 31 October, the execution of the mission’s procurement will only move forward if the necessary funding is approved by Member States at ESA’s Ministerial Council meeting in November. It will then need to be approved by the relevant Programme Board and the Industrial Policy Committee.

Though there are several European startups (The Exploration Company, Thales Alena, Atmos, PLD) now developing unmanned returnable capsules that will eventually be able to bring cargo to and from ISS, none appear likely to be able to meet the 2028 deadline. Thus, the most likely winner of this contract will be SpaceX.

More significant is the nature of ESA’s request. In the past the agency simply built and owned its own cargo capsule, the ATV. Rather than build another, it is adopting the capitalism model, asking its private sector to make it happen.

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Firefly Aerospace buys defense contractor SciTec

9:21 am

Firefly Aerospace yesterday announced that it is buying the defense contractor SciTec for $300 million in cash plus $555 million in Firefly shares.

The shares go to SciTec’s owners at an agreed-to value of $50 per share, essentially making those individuals part owners of Firefly.

The acquisition will advance Firefly’s comprehensive space services by adding mission-proven defense software analytics, remote sensing, and multi-phenomenology data expertise. SciTec’s core capabilities – which include missile warning, tracking and defense, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, space domain awareness, and autonomous command and control – will supplement Firefly’s launch, lunar, and in-space services. SciTec further adds ground and onboard data processing as well as AI-enabled systems designed for low latency operations to support advanced threat tracking and response across multiple domains.

In other words, this acquisition is aimed at improving Firefly’s ability to win defense contracts, thus diversifying its business beyond outer space. This suggests its managers believe there isn’t enough business in outer space to put the company in the black. It needs defense contracts, and adding SciTech increases the odds it will win those contracts.

The stock price in this sale, $50, I think tells us something of the motives of SciTec’s owners. At present Firefly’s stock is selling at about $30 on Wall Street, and the price has not changed much today after this announcement. It appears the stock obtained by SciTec’s owners is thus not as valuable as listed in the intended sale price. This in turn suggests that those owners also needed this deal to diversify the company, and were willing to take a loss in the value of their stock to get it.

Then again, my understanding of how Wall Street and stocks function is limited, and my analysis on this point could be completely wrong.

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Space Force awards SpaceX and ULA seven launches worth more than a billion dollars

3:05 pm

The U.S. Space Force (USSF) yesterday awarded multi-launch contracts to both SpaceX and ULA for seven launches beginning in 2027 worth more than a billion dollars.

SpaceX received $714 million for five launches and ULA was awarded $428 million for two launches, USSF said in an Oct. 3 news release.

The awards are part of the Space Force’s National Security Space Launch Program, which it uses to launch services for military space missions. In April, it chose SpaceX, ULA, and Blue Origin to launch a total of 54 missions scheduled between fiscal 2027 and 2032, with SpaceX responsible for just over half, with 28 launches. Individual missions will be awarded in batches through fiscal 2029.

Though Blue Origin was included in this program and its New Glenn rocket has finally launched once successfully, its not yet been certified to launch military satellites, and to get certified the company is going to have to launch at least one more time. That launch is expected before this month is out. Moreover, it will soon have to compete against more companies, and the Pentagon will be adding Rocket Lab and Stoke Space to its approved list as soon as both successfully launch their respective Neutron and Nova rockets by next year.

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Gilmour to attempt first launch again next year

2:53 pm

Eris rocket launch and failure
Eris rocket falling sideways from launchpad
(indicated by red dot). Click for video, cued
to just before launch.

According to a presentation by the CEO and founder of Australian rocket startup Gilmour Space, the company now sufficiently understands what caused the failure on its first launch attempt on July 30 to plan a second attempt in 2026.

The company is still investigating the root cause of the failure. “It looks like what went wrong on the launch is something we’ve never tested close enough to the launch conditions before,” he said, but didn’t elaborate.

One factor in the launch was the long delay between shipping the rocket to the launch site, known as the Bowen Orbital Spaceport, and the launch itself. “Rockets aren’t designed to be at the launch site for 18 months,” he said. The launch site, he noted, is just a kilometer from the ocean, creating salty conditions that can be corrosive.

That extended time at the launch site stemmed from delays securing regulatory approvals for the launch. That included not just a launch license from the Australian Space Agency but also airspace, maritime and environmental permits. “We had to get 24 different permits from the Queensland government,” Gilmour said. “All of these things take a long time to do.” He acknowledged that the company had not put enough resources into those regulatory processes. “The approval processes just took way too long.”

What is ironic is that as bad as Australia appears to be in terms of red tape, it is far better that it mother country, Great Britain. At least in Australia spaceports have been approved and at least one launch has taken place. And it only took eighteen months! In Great Britain the permitting process for its two proposed rocket spaceports has taken almost a decade, and still no vertical launches have occurred at either.

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SpaceX launches 28 Starlink satellites

8:16 am

SpaceX this morning successfully launched another 28 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

The first stage completed its second flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

127 SpaceX
58 China
13 Russia
12 Rocket Lab

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 127 to 98.

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Satellite propulsion startup Portal successfully tests new and radical thruster design

10:32 am

The satellite propulsion startup Portal has become the first commercial company to test successfully a thruster that uses concentrated sunlight to ionize a fuel.

The concept has been studied several times by NASA and other government entities, but never tested to a point where it could be used on a mission. According to this report:

For the vacuum chamber test at Portal’s Bothell lab, engineers used an electrical induction system to simulate the sun’s heating power. The apparatus reached temperatures in the range of 1,500 degrees Celsius (2,700 degrees Fahrenheit), and the performance of the thruster validated Portal’s propulsion architecture for integration with future flight hardware.

The concept is similar to an ion engine, but appears to produce more thrust, allowing it to move satellites more quickly to different orbits. Portal hopes to do an in orbitat test by next year. The company has raised $17.5 million in private funding, and $45 million from an Air Force grant.

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Varda signs deal for more capsule landings in Australia

9:10 am

Proposed Australian spaceports
Australian spaceports: operating (red dot) and proposed (red “X”)
Click for original image.

The recoverable capsule company Varda has now signed a new deal that will allow it to land up to 20 more capsules at the commercial spaceport/range Southern Launch in Australia through 2028.

It has already landed capsules there twice. This new contract suggests that Varda has enough expected customers and products to place in its capsules to pay for about six or seven capsules launched per year. If so, this manufacturing model in space is going to bloom very quickly, and will likely become a major profit center for the commercial space stations now under development.

The deal also illustrates the utter failure of the U.S. government’s red tape, especially during the Biden administration.

The company landed its first mission, W-1, at the Utah Test and Training Range in February 2024. But difficulties securing licenses and other approvals for that mission prompted Varda to look elsewhere. “Through that experience, it became pretty clear that the U.S. was not going to be the location for high-cadence reentry operations in the near term,” Eric Lasker, Varda’s chief revenue officer, said at an IAC event announcing the new agreement.

Hopefully the anti-regulatory policies of Trump will change this, but for the moment our government has driven this American company away from the U.S.

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Belgium company joins Starlab space station consortium

8:25 am

Starlab design in 2025
The Starlab design in 2025. Click
for original image.

The Starlab consortium, proposing to build its single-module large Starlab space station that will be launched on Starship, has now added the Belgium company Space Applications Services (SpaceApps) as both a partner and investor.

SpaceApps contributes deep experience in space systems, mission operations and payload integration with capabilities that include avionics, payload development, the end-to-end International Commercial Experiment Cubes (ICECubes) service, as well as mission integration and operations control software. The company also works closely with the European Space Agency and international partners, broadening Starlab’s access to global markets and research communities.

The Starlab consortium already includes the American companies Voyager Space and Northrop Grumman and the European company Airbus. It also has a partnership agreement with the European Space Agency. This new Belgium partnership further cements its place as Europe’s potential future space station after ISS is retired.

This deal is only one of several news stories in the past week signaling progress by this consortium. It has signed the American company Vivace to build the station’s main structure and its partner Northrop Grumman has successfully tested the rendezvous and docking technology its Cygnus cargo capsule will use to dock with Starlab. All in all this station appears to be assembling the pieces its needs.

Below is my updated rankings of the four commercial stations under development:
» Read more

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Axiom successfully tests two of its lunar spacesuits underwater

8:01 am

Axiom's two spacesuits being tested underwater
Axiom’s two spacesuits being tested underwater.
Click for original.

The space station startup Axiom this week successfully completed underwater testing of two of its lunar spacesuits, making them ready for astronaut training.

Axiom won the contract to build these suits for NASA in 2022. It speaks well of the company that only three years later the suits are now ready for use. It also shows NASA’s own incompetence, because before it awarded this contract to Axiom the agency tried to build its own suits, spending more than a billion dollars and fourteen years to produce nothing.

Furthermore, this success underlines yesterday’s NASA inspector general report that lambasted Collins Aerospace’s incompetence in maintaining the spacesuits on ISS. Collins in 2022 had won a similar spacesuit contract to build new space station suits, but two years later backed out of the deal, unable to get the job done.

For Axiom, this spacesuit success adds an essential component to its own space station plans. Though these suits are intended for the Moon, the company now has the basics down for its own space station suit. It owns this suit design, and will not only sell suits to NASA, it can market the suits to any one else.

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Inspector General: The state of NASA’s spacesuits on ISS is becoming critical

1:28 pm

NASA's failed spacesuit
NASA’s failed Moon spacesuits

A new NASA inspector report issued today [pdf] has found that the single contractor NASA uses to maintain the spacesuits on ISS, Collins Aerospace, has increasingly been unable to do the job, and NASA has no alternative contractor to turn to. From the report’s executive summary:

We previously reported on NASA’s spacesuit management in 2017 and 2021, finding that the Agency faced a wide array of risks to sustaining the EMUs [the spacesuits], including design inadequacies, health risks, and low inventories of spacesuit life support systems, ultimately leading to NASA’s efforts to design and develop next-generation suits to replace the existing EMUs. Specifically, the EMU design flaws have increased the chance of and led to unexpected water in helmets, thermal regulation malfunctions, and astronaut injuries. Given that spacesuits are necessary to meet future ISS maintenance needs until its planned decommissioning in 2030, it is critical that NASA effectively manages the contract performance and subsequent safety risks associated with ESOC [the contract with Collins].

…Until the ISS’s planned decommission at the end of the decade, NASA will continue to require spacewalking capabilities to perform upgrades and corrective and preventative maintenance to the Station. However, Collins’ performance on ESOC increases programmatic risks to NASA as it attempts to conduct safe spacewalks outside the ISS and maintain critical EMU life support component inventories. The contractor is experiencing considerable schedule delays, cost overruns, and quality issues that significantly increase the risk to maintaining NASA’s spacewalking capability.

Collins was awarded this five-year cost-plus maintenance contract in 2010 for $324 million. Since then NASA has been repeatedly extending it, so that it now runs through 2027 and has funneled $1.4 billion into Collins’ bank account. Yet Collins has repeatedly failed to deliver necessary repair parts, even as there have been more frequent problems on ISS, including several cases where spacewalks had to be aborted because an astronaut’s life was in danger. Here are just a few examples cited in the report:
» Read more

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