Tag: competition

A detailed description of Rocket Lab’s private Venus mission

10:00 am

Planned insertion of Rocket Lab's probe into Venus's atmosphere
Click for full figure.

Capitalism in space: In partnership with scientists at MIT, the Planetary Science Institute, and others, Rocket Lab engineers this week published a detailed description of the company’s planned privately funded mission to Venus, presently targeting a launch in May 2023.

From the paper’s abstract:

The Rocket Lab mission to Venus is a small direct entry probe planned for baseline launch in May 2023 with accommodation for a single ~1 kg instrument. A backup launch window is available in January 2025. The probe mission will spend about 5 min in the Venus cloud layers at 48–60 km altitude above the surface and collect in situ measurements. We have chosen a low-mass, low-cost autofluorescing nephelometer to search for organic molecules in the cloud particles and constrain the particle composition.

The figure above is figure 6 from the paper. It shows the probe’s planned path through Venus’s atmosphere. If the mission launches in May ’23 the probe would enter the atmosphere in October ’23.

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Astrobotic makes bid to buy assets of bankrupt Masten

9:02 am

Capitalism in space: Astrobotic, a startup focused on building lunar and planetary unmanned landers, has now made a formal bid to buy the remaining assets of Masten Space Systems, which had also been a startup focused on planetary missions but recently went bankrupt.

In a filing with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for Delaware Aug. 14, Masten said it received a “stalking horse” bid of $4.2 million for Masten’s assets, including a SpaceX launch credit worth $14 million, from Astrobotic. The agreement, in effect, sets a minimum price for the sale of those assets but does not prevent Masten from seeking higher bids through an auction process that runs through early September.

The agreement appears to supersede an earlier agreement between Masten and a third lunar lander company, Intuitive Machines, included in Masten’s Chapter 11 filing July 28. That agreement covered the SpaceX launch credits alone and Masten did not disclose the value of it in its original filing.

Masten’s long term specialty has been vertical take-off and landing, something it has successfully done for the last several years on suborbital flights. This technology would be of great value to both Astrobotic and Intuitive Machines in developing their own first lunar landers.

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Merger deal between Italian orbital tug company D-Orbit and Breeze canceled

8:52 am

Capitalism in space: The merger deal between the Italian orbital tug company D-Orbit and the special purpose acquisition investment company (SPAC) Breeze has been canceled.

The Italian company had hoped to raise $185 million from the deal to expand staff and accelerate investments in ION Satellite Carrier, its orbital transfer vehicle (OTV) that completed its first commercial mission in late 2020.

However, “financial markets have changed substantially” since the deal was announced Jan. 27, Breeze CEO Douglas Ramsey said, amid rising interest rates, soaring inflation, and an ongoing war in Ukraine. “As we look ahead, we remain focused on identifying another value creating opportunity for Breeze shareholders,” Ramsey added.

A SPAC is a shell company designed solely to gather investment capital that is then used to either buy or merge with another company. In the process the company that is taken over goes public, its stock available on the stock market for trade. There have been a number of such takeovers in the space sector in the past few years, but most have turned out poorly for the investors in those SPACs, as noted in the article:

Of the nine space companies that went public through SPAC mergers in 2021, only Rocket Lab’s shares finished the year trading above their price when the merger closed. [Ed: both Virgin Galactic and Astra are examples of these failures.]

Demand for new SPAC deals has also been waning amid declining investor appetite for risk and increasing regulatory scrutiny over how these blank check firms operate. More than 40 SPAC mergers have been canceled so far this year, reported Bloomberg.

To put it more bluntly, investors have found these SPACs to be poor investments, and are bailing from them. This is likely what happened at Breeze, thus forcing the cancellation of the deal with D-Orbit.

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August 15, 2022 Quick space links

12:43 pm

From Jay, BtB’s stringer:

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Russia to launch Tunisian astronaut to ISS

9:38 am

As part of an agreement between the two nations, Russia yesterday announced that it will fly a Tunisian woman to ISS in 2024.

On August 13, Women’s Day in Tunisia, eight women candidates for a space flight were presented. They are currently undergoing medical examination. Six of them will go to Russia for the final stage of pre-qualification to choose two best candidates: one will be a member of the main crew, the other one – of the standby crew.

No longer able to make money selling the spare seats on Soyuz to NASA, and apparently not getting much interest from the private sector inside or outside of Russia to buy these seats, the Putin government is now using them for international diplomacy, just as it did during the Soviet era.

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Russia unveils small model of its proposed space station

9:32 am

Tabletop Model of Russian Space Station

The Russian space agency Roscosmos today unveiled a small tabletop model of the independent Russian space station it proposes to build that will replace its portion on ISS.

The picture to the right shows that model. It shows four large modules, a second docking hub, and a Russian manned Federatsiya (“Federation” in English) capsule (intended to replace Soyuz) docked to the nearest port.

Roskosmos said in a statement that the new space station would be launched in two phases, without giving dates. The first phase would see a four-module space station start operating. That would later be followed by a further two modules and a service platform, it said. That would be enough, when completed, to accommodate up to four cosmonauts as well as scientific equipment.

Roskosmos has said the new station would afford Russian cosmonauts a much wider view of the Earth for monitoring purposes than they enjoy in their current segment. Although designs for some of the new station already exist, design work is still underway on other segments.

Russian state media have suggested that the launch of the first stage is planned for 2025-26 and no later than 2030. Launch of the second and final stage is planned for 2030-35, they have reported.

Russia officials have also said that it will stick with its partnership at ISS until this new station has begun operations.

It will be very revealing how successful Russia is at meeting this timetable. For the past thirty years, since the fall of the Soviet Union and the advent of international cooperation at ISS, its aerospace sector has routinely failed to meet any schedule at all, promising a lot but never delivering, or delivering literally decades late. (For example, Federatsiya has been under development for almost a decade, with no apparent progress.) Forced to go it alone, and in competition with the rest of the world, that sector, now controlled and owned by the government (like the Soviet days), might finally have some incentive to produce.

Or not. The corruption that permeates Russia’s government is deep and widespread. It is entirely possible that a large percentage of the money budgeted for this project ends up in the pockets of its managers instead of used to build anything.

We shall have to wait and see.

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August 14, 2022 Quick space links

1:06 pm

Some weekend news from BtB’s top stringer, Jay.

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Professional software hacker demonstrates how to hack Starlink terminals

10:49 am

A professional software hacker not only recently succeeded in hacking the terminals SpaceX sells customers to use its Starlink satellite internet service, he first got a bounty from SpaceX for doing so, then made his technique freely available on the web for everyone else.

[Lennert] Wouters is now making his hacking tool open source on GitHub, including some of the details needed to launch the attack. “As an attacker, let’s say you wanted to attack the satellite itself,” Wouters explains, “You could try to build your own system that allows you to talk to the satellite, but that’s quite difficult. So if you want to attack the satellites, you would like to go through the user terminal as that likely makes your life easier.”

The researcher notified Starlink of the flaws last year and the company paid Wouters through its bug bounty scheme for identifying the vulnerabilities. Wouters says that while SpaceX has issued an update to make the attack harder (he changed the modchip in response), the underlying issue can’t be fixed unless the company creates a new version of the main chip. All existing user terminals are vulnerable, Wouters says.

Starlink says it plans to release a “public update” following Wouters’ presentation at Black Hat this afternoon, but declined to share any details about that update with WIRED prior to publication.

Wouters is a researcher at the Belgian university KU Leuven.

While it can certainly help SpaceX to figure this out, by publishing the hack to the world Wouters looks like a blackmailer unsatisfied with his payoff who is now following through with his blackmail threat. One also wonders why SpaceX, as part of its bounty payment, did not require Wouters to sign a non-disclosure agreement.

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SpaceX launches 46 more Starlink satellites

2:49 pm

Capitalism in space: SpaceX today used its Falcon 9 rocket to launch another 46 Starlink satellites into orbit from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

The first stage completed its 10th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific. It was also the fourth flight for both fairing halves. During the live stream the announcer also mentioned that because SpaceX has recently switched to using Starlink for transmitting its launch video feeds, the loss of picture signal that use to occur during the landing of the first stage on the drone ship has almost completely vanished.

The leaders in the 2022 launch race:

36 SpaceX
30 China
11 Russia
6 Rocket Lab
5 ULA

American private enterprise now leads China 51 to 30 in the national rankings, and the entire world combined 51 to 48.

I should also add that the United States has now matched the number of launches achieved in 1962, the nation’s fifth highest total of successful launches in a single year.

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Another and this time longer static fire tests for Superheavy prototype #7

9:02 am

Capitalism in space: SpaceX engineers yesterday conducted a second static fire engine test of the 7th prototype of its Superheavy first stage booster, firing a different engine for 20 seconds.

The action ramped up on Thursday (Aug. 11) for Booster 7, which conducted a much longer static fire on Starbase’s orbital launch mount. The burn, which occurred at 3:48 p.m. EDT (1948 GMT), lasted for 20 seconds, SpaceX said via Twitter (opens in new tab).

The long-duration burn aimed to “test autogenous pressurization,” according to a tweet posted by Musk (opens in new tab) shortly before Booster 7 fired up.

Expect these engine tests to occur on a regular basis over the next few weeks, as engineers ramp up their operations in preparation for the first orbital flight of both prototype #7 with Starship prototype #24 stacked on top.

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SpaceX gets FCC communications license for Starship orbital launch

8:47 am

Capitalism in space: The FCC yesterday approved SpaceX’s communications license for one or more Starship orbital launches, with a six month launch window beginning on September 1, 2022.

This FCC approval is not a launch license, which must be given by the FAA. It does tell us that SpaceX will not attempt the first orbital launch of Starship before the end of this month. It also tells us that the company likely plans on an aggressive test program from September ’22 through February ’23, assuming the FAA and the federal bureaucracy finally stops blocking that program.

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FCC cancels $900 million award to Starlink

3:07 pm

The FCC today canceled a $900 million subsidy it had awarded to SpaceX in December 2020 as part of a federal program to help establish broadband service in rural communities.

The reasoning for canceling the award given at the link is very unclear. However, since the award a lobbying effort by Starlink’s competitors — teamed up with Democrats in Congress — to cancel the award has been on going. It now seems to have succeeded.

Another clue to explaining this cancellation is timing. The award was announced at the end of the Trump administration, when his appointees controlled the FCC. The cancellation took place during the Biden administration, with the FCC now controlled by Democrats who are increasing revealing themselves to be very hostile to private commercial space in general and Musk and SpaceX in particular.

Nonetheless, it seems absurd to give SpaceX any such subsidy, regardless of the politics. As I said in February 2021:

No one, including SpaceX, should get these funds. SpaceX is proving they aren’t necessary to get the job done (bringing fast internet service to rural communities). Moreover, the federal government really doesn’t have the cash, deep in debt as it is.

Sadly, just because the FCC cancelled its award to SpaceX we should not expect as modern taxpayers that the money won’t be spent. Expect the Biden administration to instead dole it out to its preferred vendors.

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UK regulators to investigate Viasat-Inmarsat merger

9:03 am

The United Kingdom’s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) yesterday opened an investigation into the purchase of InMarsat by Viasat, announced in November ’21, to see it that merger would “result in a substantial lessening of competition within any market or markets in the United Kingdom for goods or services.”

This investigation will clearly delay the merger. It also appears somewhat counter-productive, considering that Inmarsat has been having trouble making money in recent years due to the market’s shift from its big geosynchronous satellites to constellations of smallsats in low Earth orbit, such as SpaceX’s Starlink. Viasat meanwhile has been desperately trying to block Starlink because of that very competitive threat.

By merging, these two satellite companies might survive and compete with the new orbital constellations. Otherwise, they might both go out of business, thus reducing competition. It seems the CMA will be shooting itself in the foot if it blocks this merger.

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Superheavy prototype #7 and Starship prototype #24 undergo static fire tests

8:41 am

Superheavy #7's first launchpad engine test
Click for original photo.

Capitalism in space: SpaceX engineers yesterday performed static fire tests of both its Superheavy prototype #7 and its Starship prototype #24.

The Superheavy prototype fired one engine, and did so only a few weeks after that prototype experienced an explosive event the launchpad during earlier fueling/engine tests. Yesterday’s engine test was the first time any Superheavy prototype had fired its engines on the launchpad.

The Starship prototype meanwhile fired two engines on a nearby vertical test stand.

SpaceX’s plan is to stack #24 on top of #7 and attempt an orbital launch test that will have the Superheavy prototype land in the Gulf of Mexico while the Starship prototype reaches orbit and then returns to Earth in the Pacific northeast of Hawaii. Based on the company’s normal pace of operations, that flight is probably only weeks away. However, before that flight engineers will have to do a full static fire test of all 33 of #7 engines, and then like do it again with Starship #24 stacked on top.

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SpaceX successfully launches 52 more Starlink satellites

7:24 pm

Capitalism in space: SpaceX tonight successfully used its Falcon 9 rocket to launch another 52 Starlink satellites into orbit.

The first stage completed its third flight, landing successfully on a drone ship in the Atlantic Ocean. The fairings also completed their third flight.

The leaders in the 2022 launch race:

35 SpaceX
29 China
11 Russia
6 Rocket Lab
5 ULA

American private enterprise now leads China 50 to 29 in the national rankings, and the entire world combined 50 to 37.

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Rocket Lab considering further targets for in-space Photon upper stage

12:12 pm

Capitalism in space: As noted during a speech yesterday by CEO Peter Beck, Rocket Lab is considering further interplanetary targets for its still functioning Photon upper stage, that helped launch NASA’s CAPSTONE mission toward the Moon.

Rocket Lab is continuing to operate Lunar Photon more than a month after it deployed CAPSTONE. The spacecraft is currently about 1.3 million kilometers from Earth, he said, and will swing back to Earth later in the month.

The spacecraft still has 10-15% of its propellant remaining. “As it scoots past Earth,” Beck said, “we’ll have a crack at doing something cool with it and see how far into the solar system we can get with it.”

Rocket Lab hopes to use a future Photon stage to send a probe to Venus, and is using the Photon in space now for engineering tests. It is also selling this technology as a viable cheaper alternative to the typically expensive interplanetary probes.

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Debris from Russian anti-sat test causing numerous near Starlink collisions

12:04 pm

According to an official of a company that helps track space junk, the scattered debris from the satellite destroyed by Russia in an anti-satellite test in 2021 has had numerous near collisions with multiple Starlink satellites.

In the Aug. 6 event, Oltrogge said there were more than 6,000 close approaches, defined as being within 10 kilometers, involving 841 Starlink satellites, about 30% of the constellation. It’s unclear how many, if any, of the satellites had to maneuver to avoid collisions.

This conjunction squall was exacerbated by a new group of Starlink satellites. SpaceX launched the first set of “Group 3” Starlink satellites July 10 from Vandenberg Space Force Base into polar orbit, followed by a second set July 22. A third batch of Group 3 satellites is scheduled to launch Aug. 12.

The problem is only going to get worse, as this junk will be in orbit for quite some time.

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Northrop Grumman partners with Firefly to make Antares entirely U.S. made

9:00 am

Capitalism in space: Because the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, Northrop Grumman yesterday announced that it has signed a deal with the rocket startup Firefly to replace the Russian engines and Ukrainian-built first stages on its Antares rocket.

Firefly’s propulsion technology utilizes the same propellants as the current Antares rocket, which minimizes launch site upgrades. The Antares 330 will utilize seven of Firefly’s Miranda engines and leverage its composites technology for the first stage structures and tanks, while Northrop Grumman provides its proven avionics and software, upper-stage structures and Castor 30XL motor, as well as proven vehicle integration and launch pad operations. This new stage will also significantly increase Antares mass to orbit capability.

The press release made no mention of launch dates. However, according to Reuters Northrop Grumman has purchased three SpaceX Falcon 9 launches in ’23 and ’24 to get its Cygnus cargo freighter into orbit in the interim and thus fulfill its ISS resupply contract with NASA.

After an earlier Antares failure the company (then Orbital ATK) had hired ULA’s Atlas-5 to launch Cygnus. ULA however is retiring the Atlas-5 after it completes its present full manifest, so this rocket was no longer available. ULA is replacing it with the Vulcan rocket, but that rocket is not yet operational due to delays in the delivery of its Blue Origin first stage engines. Thus, SpaceX was Northrop Grumman’s only viable option.

There is also a certain irony in the hiring of Firefly to replace the Ukrainian first stage. Firefly was saved from bankruptcy by a Ukrainian billionaire, Max Polykov. Though he has been forced to sell off his ownership in the company by the State Department, Firefly would not now exist to take this business from a Ukrainian company had Polykov not provided his financial help.

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Russia and China complete launches

8:45 am

Both Russia and a pseudo-commercial Chinese company today completed launches.

Russia used its Soyuz-2 rocket to launch a military reconnaissance satellite for Iran, along with 16 Russian smallsats. The rocket was originally going to launch a South Korean satellite, but that launch was cancelled due to Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine.

In China, the pseudo-company Galactic Energy used its four-stage Ceres-1 rocket to place three Earth observations satellites into orbit. Because three of the rocket’s four stages use solid rocket motors, they were likely reworked from military applications. Thus, Galactic Energy does nothing without the full approval and supervision of the Chinese government. It might have been funded privately, and focused on making profits, but it really owns nothing it builds.

Nonetheless, this was its third successful orbital launch, making it the most successful of these Chinese pseudo-companies. It is also developing a Falcon 9 clone rocket dubbed Pallas-1, which it hopes to launch next year.

The leaders in the 2022 launch race:

34 SpaceX
29 China
11 Russia
6 Rocket Lab
5 ULA

American private enterprise still leads China 49 to 29 in the national rankings, and the entire world combined 49 to 47. A SpaceX Falcon 9 launch later today should strengthen this lead again.

The leade

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August 8th quick space links

12:47 pm

Some quick links, provided by reader Jay:

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India’s new SSLV rocket fails on first launch attempt

10:53 am

Delayed years because of India’s panic over the Wuhan flu, the first launch of that country’s new Small Satellite Launch Vehicle (SSLV) failed today when the rocket’s fourth stage apparently did not fire its engines properly.

The problem appeared to be the SSLV’s terminal stage, called the velocity trimming module (VTM). According to the launch profile, the VTM was supposed to have burnt for 20 seconds at 653 seconds after launch. However, it burnt for only 0.1 seconds, denying the rocket of the requisite altitude boost. Two satellites onboard the rocket – the primary EOS-2 Earth-observing satellite and the secondary AzaadiSAT student satellite – separated from the vehicle after the VTM burnt.

As a result, the two satellites were put in an orbit that was too low, which quickly decayed, destroying both.

Since this launch failed, I do not count it in the launch totals for 2022.

Considering that this was SSLV’s first launch, it was in that sense a test, and a failure therefore is not unexpected. India’s real problem is that the launch was delayed so long because of the Wuhan panic, thus allowing other competitors to catch up and pass India. While it is certain ISRO will try again, and eventually succeed, it will not get the market share it would have had, had it launched in 2020 as originally planned.

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SpaceX raises another $250 million in investment capital

8:58 am

Capitalism in space: SpaceX in July raised $250 million in investment capital from five unnamed investors, bringing the total raised in 2022 to $2 billion.

Added to the amount brought in before this year, SpaceX has raised about $9 billion in private capital, most of which is focused on financing the development of Starship/Superheavy. When you add the $2.9 billion contract it won from NASA to develop Starship as a manned lunar lander, the company has raised about $12 billion to build this heavy lift rocket.

The numbers demonstrate several things. First, Wall Street is apparently very confident SpaceX will succeed in building the rocket, and then make a lot of money from it. Second, the numbers prove it shouldn’t cost $60 billion and two decades to design and build a heavy lift rocket, as NASA has done with its SLS rocket. SpaceX is doing it for less than a fifth of the cost, in a third of the time.

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Virgin Galactic once again delays commercial suborbital operations

9:08 am

Capitalism in space: In releasing its quarterly report, Virgin Galactic yesterday revealed that it is once again delaying the start of commercial suborbital operations, pushing back from the first quarter of 2023 to the second quarter.

In an earnings call, company executives said that the latest delay was not directly related to supply chain and staffing problems it blamed for the previous delay. Instead, refurbishment work on its WhiteKnightTwo plane, VMS Eve, was taking longer than planned. “The driver is around the amount of time it is taking us to accomplish the work scope on Eve,” said Michael Colglazier, chief executive of Virgin Galactic. “We did not plan the full amount of time that’s been needed to get this work accomplished.”

Company officials also said they are shifting its customer emphasis, now focusing much more on “private and government researchers.” Let me translate: The public is not buying tickets, so Virgin Galactic hopes to convince the government to keep it afloat instead.

I predict this company will likely never fly any customers, and it appears the stock agrees, with the stock plunging in value, from $8.25 to $6.95 in less than a day.

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Astra cancels all launches with its Rocket 3.3 rocket

9:01 am

Capitalism in space: Astra yesterday announced that it has canceled all further launches with its Rocket-3.3 rocket, and will instead focus on developing a larger version, dubbed Rocket-4, which it says will begin test flights in 2023.

The company says that it will no longer fly the Rocket 3.3 and move on to its larger Rocket 4 vehicle that it announced in May. One change is that the payload performance of the new rocket has doubled to 600 kilograms. Kemp didn’t disclose details of the design change other than an upgrade to its upper stage engine. Rocket 3.3, by contrast, had a payload capacity of no more than 50 kilograms.

“The feedback that we were getting from some of the larger constellation operators was that satellites were getting larger,” he said. Discontinuing the existing Rocket 3.3, he said, allowed the company to focus its resources on the new launch system, including increasing its payload capacity.

Essentially, Astra has left the field and is at present no longer an operational smallsat rocket company. It is also likely that its announced schedule for its upgraded rocket will not be met. Thus, expect customers to shift to other launch providers able to launch satellites, such as Rocket Lab and Virgin Orbit.

Not surprisingly, the company’s stock plunged soon after this announcement.

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SpaceX launches South Korea’s Danuri lunar orbiter

4:50 pm

SpaceX today successfully launched South Korea’s Danuri lunar orbiter, also called the Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter.

The first stage completed its sixth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic. The fairings completed their fourth flight.

Danuri is now on its way to the Moon, with a planned arrival in lunar orbit on December 16, 2022. It carries six instruments, one of which was developed by NASA. The spacecraft, while designed to study the Moon, is primarily a technology test mission laying the groundwork for more sophisticated interplanetary South Korean missions. More information about the mission can be found here.

The leaders in the 2022 launch race:

34 SpaceX
28 China
10 Russia
6 Rocket Lab
5 ULA

The U.S. now leads China 49 to 28 in the national rankings, and the entire world combined 49 to 45. With this launch American private enterprise has now surpassed the entire launch total for all of 2021, and has the most launches for the U.S. since 1967, when it completed successfully 57 launches.

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China launches “reusable experimental spacecraft”

4:02 pm

According to the official Chinese press, China today successfully used its Long March 2F rocket to place into orbit a “reusable experimental spacecraft.”

To say the information provided was terse is to be extravagant. This is it:

After a period of in-orbit operation, the spacecraft will return to its scheduled landing site in China. It will test reusable technologies and in-orbit service technologies as planned during its flight, providing technological support for the peaceful use of space.

It appears, based on the size of the rocket, that this spacecraft is likely a copy of Boeing’s X-37B.

The leaders in the 2022 launch race:

33 SpaceX
28 China
10 Russia
6 Rocket Lab
5 ULA

The U.S. still leads China 48 to 28 in the national rankings, and the entire world combined 48 to 45.

These numbers should change within the next half hour, as SpaceX is about to launch another rocket.

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Axiom signs deal with New Zealand

9:52 am

Capitalism in space: The private space station company Axiom has now signed a deal with New Zealand to permit its citizens to propose and fly experiments on future Axiom missions, both to ISS and to Axiom’s own space station, scheduled for launch beginning in ’24.

This is the fourth international commercial agreement Axiom has signed since May, with Italy, Hungary, and the UAE the signatories in the previous deals. The UAE deal also included the launch of a UAE astronaut to ISS for a six month flight.

Axiom hopes to launch its first module to ISS in ’24, with later modules eventually allowing it to undock its section to fly as an independent station when ISS is retired.

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