Tag: science
A river on Titan.
The nine most important archeological and paleontological discoveries in 2012.
The nine most important archeological and paleontological discoveries in 2012.
I especially like #8, since it involves an actual person.
The nine most important archeological and paleontological discoveries in 2012.
I especially like #8, since it involves an actual person.
Watch a three mile wide asteroid fly past the Earth – live tonight from 5 to 11 pm (Eastern)!
Watch a three mile wide asteroid fly past the Earth – live tonight from 5 to 11 pm (Eastern)!
Watch a three mile wide asteroid fly past the Earth – live tonight from 5 to 11 pm (Eastern)!
The solar scientists change their prediction again
Today, with little fanfare, the solar scientists at the Marshall Space Flight Center adjusted slightly downward their prediction for the upcoming solar maximum, from a sunspot number of 73 down to 72. This was the fourth month in a row that they have revised their prediction.
The Marshall scientists do not archive their predictions, which I suspect is a convenient way of preventing people from noticing how much they change them. I however like to archive these revisions. Below is a full list of their changes during the past two years:
» Read more
Climate models still fail to predict mid- and long-term trends in the climate.The uncertainty of science: Climate models still fail to predict mid- and long-term trends in the climate.
The uncertainty of science: Climate models still fail to predict mid- and long-term trends in the climate.
To test the forecast quality of the 23 most important climate models, the AWI scientists investigated how well these models were able to reproduce atmospheric teleconnection patterns over the past 50 years. A total of 9 known circulation patterns were investigated retrospectively, four of which in special detail. The result was that the spatial distribution of atmospheric teleconnection patterns is already described very well by some models. However, none of the models were able to reliably reproduce how strong or weak the Icelandic Low, Azores High and other meteorological centers of action were at a particular time over the last 50 years, i.e. the temporal distribution patterns. [emphasis mine]
The “centers of action” are large global weather patterns like el Nino that can influence the global climate worldwide. Most climate scientists believe that global warming will manifest itself first in these centers of action. Yet, no climate model was able to predict what we know actually happened during the past fifty years with these large centers.
But we must ignore this fact and base all our climate law on what these models predict. What could go wrong?
In related news, the United Kingdom had its coldest autumn since 1993 this year. And if you look at the temperature graph at the link, covering autumn temperatures since 1910, you will notice hardly any change, up or down.
The uncertainty of science: Climate models still fail to predict mid- and long-term trends in the climate.
To test the forecast quality of the 23 most important climate models, the AWI scientists investigated how well these models were able to reproduce atmospheric teleconnection patterns over the past 50 years. A total of 9 known circulation patterns were investigated retrospectively, four of which in special detail. The result was that the spatial distribution of atmospheric teleconnection patterns is already described very well by some models. However, none of the models were able to reliably reproduce how strong or weak the Icelandic Low, Azores High and other meteorological centers of action were at a particular time over the last 50 years, i.e. the temporal distribution patterns. [emphasis mine]
The “centers of action” are large global weather patterns like el Nino that can influence the global climate worldwide. Most climate scientists believe that global warming will manifest itself first in these centers of action. Yet, no climate model was able to predict what we know actually happened during the past fifty years with these large centers.
But we must ignore this fact and base all our climate law on what these models predict. What could go wrong?
In related news, the United Kingdom had its coldest autumn since 1993 this year. And if you look at the temperature graph at the link, covering autumn temperatures since 1910, you will notice hardly any change, up or down.
Vi Hart – What was up with Pythagoras?
A look at some modern animals, drawn with the same limited fossil record we have for the dinosaurs.
The uncertainty of science: A look at some modern animals, drawn with the same limited fossil record we have for the dinosaurs.
In other words, almost everything we assume about the dinosaurs is probably wrong.
The uncertainty of science: A look at some modern animals, drawn with the same limited fossil record we have for the dinosaurs.
In other words, almost everything we assume about the dinosaurs is probably wrong.
Gullies on Vesta?
A tour of the impact craters that Curiosity created when it landed on Mars.
A tour of the impact craters that Curiosity created when it landed on Mars.
A tour of the impact craters that Curiosity created when it landed on Mars.
The GAO is concerned about the future budget and schedule of the James Webb Space Telescope.
O goody: The GAO is concerned about the future budget and schedule of the James Webb Space Telescope.
This is very bad news if true for NASA’s astronomy program. Webb was originally budgeted at $1 billion and scheduled to launch in 2011. Its budget is now $8.8 billion and its launch is now set for October 2018. And until it launches there is little money to build any other space telescope.
O goody: The GAO is concerned about the future budget and schedule of the James Webb Space Telescope.
This is very bad news if true for NASA’s astronomy program. Webb was originally budgeted at $1 billion and scheduled to launch in 2011. Its budget is now $8.8 billion and its launch is now set for October 2018. And until it launches there is little money to build any other space telescope.
NASA announced yesterday plans to launch by 2020 a twin rover of Curiosity to Mars.
NASA announced yesterday plans to launch by 2020 a twin rover of Curiosity to Mars.
Though it makes sense to use the same designs again, saving money, I must admit a personal lack of excitement about this announcement. First, I have doubts it will fly because of the federal government’s budget woes. Second, it is kind of a replacement for the much more challenging and exciting missions to Titan and Europa that the Obama administration killed when they slashed the planetary budget last year.
NASA announced yesterday plans to launch by 2020 a twin rover of Curiosity to Mars.
Though it makes sense to use the same designs again, saving money, I must admit a personal lack of excitement about this announcement. First, I have doubts it will fly because of the federal government’s budget woes. Second, it is kind of a replacement for the much more challenging and exciting missions to Titan and Europa that the Obama administration killed when they slashed the planetary budget last year.
The press lets Curiosity get the better of them
The big news is out. Today the eagerly awaited press conference at the American Geophysical Society meeting in San Francisco on the recent results from the Mars rover Curiosity was finally held. The announced results had been hyped like crazy when rumors began to spread a few weeks ago that Curiosity had discovered something truly spectacular.
Well, here are some of the headlines heralding the results.
» Read more
New data suggests that the icy crust of Titan is twice as thick as previously estimated.
New data suggests that the icy crust of Titan is twice as thick as previously estimated.
“The picture of Titan that we get has an icy, rocky core with a radius of a little over 2,000 kilometers, an ocean somewhere in the range of 225 to 300 kilometers thick and an ice layer that is 200 kilometers thick,” [said Howard Zebker of Stanford University]. Previous models of Titan’s structure estimated the icy crust to be approximately 100 kilometers thick.
This means that the methane lakes and rivers of Titan are flowing across a bedrock of ice, which at the cold temperatures there would be as solid as rock is here on Earth.
New data suggests that the icy crust of Titan is twice as thick as previously estimated.
“The picture of Titan that we get has an icy, rocky core with a radius of a little over 2,000 kilometers, an ocean somewhere in the range of 225 to 300 kilometers thick and an ice layer that is 200 kilometers thick,” [said Howard Zebker of Stanford University]. Previous models of Titan’s structure estimated the icy crust to be approximately 100 kilometers thick.
This means that the methane lakes and rivers of Titan are flowing across a bedrock of ice, which at the cold temperatures there would be as solid as rock is here on Earth.
The Sun’s weak sunspot maximum continues
NOAA’S latest monthly update of the Sun’s ongoing ramp up to solar maximum has just been published and, as I do every month, I have posted the latest graph, with annotation, below the fold.
As the Sun had been somewhat active in November, I had expected the graph line to rise. It has, but not by very much.
» Read more
Rachel Carson was wrong.
Changes in the levels of sulphur dioxide since Venus Express arrived in orbit around Venus in 2006 now suggest strongly that the spacecraft has detected volcanic activity on the planet.
Changes in the levels of sulphur dioxide (SO2) since Venus Express arrived in orbit around Venus in 2006 now suggest strongly that the spacecraft has detected volcanic activity on the planet.
The SPICAV data show that the concentration of SO2 above the main cloud deck increased slightly to about 1000 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) between 2006 and 2007, but then steadily decreased over the next five years, reaching only 100 ppbv by 2012. This is very reminiscent of a pattern observed by Pioneer Venus during the 1980s, the only other multi-year dataset of SO2 measurements.
One of best explanations for these changes is a volcanic eruption back in 2006, which would have inserted a great deal of SO2 into the upper atmosphere. Since then, ultraviolet radiation from the sun has steadily destroyed it.
Changes in the levels of sulphur dioxide (SO2) since Venus Express arrived in orbit around Venus in 2006 now suggest strongly that the spacecraft has detected volcanic activity on the planet.
The SPICAV data show that the concentration of SO2 above the main cloud deck increased slightly to about 1000 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) between 2006 and 2007, but then steadily decreased over the next five years, reaching only 100 ppbv by 2012. This is very reminiscent of a pattern observed by Pioneer Venus during the 1980s, the only other multi-year dataset of SO2 measurements.
One of best explanations for these changes is a volcanic eruption back in 2006, which would have inserted a great deal of SO2 into the upper atmosphere. Since then, ultraviolet radiation from the sun has steadily destroyed it.
Microwaving Ivory Soap
Messenger has found new and “compelling” evidence that there is water ice locked in the permanently shadowed craters of Mercury.
Messenger has found new and “compelling” evidence that there is water ice locked in the permanently shadowed craters of Mercury.
On Monday I had spoken to one of the project scientists for this discovery, David Lawrence, in connection with an article I am doing for Astronomy on the evidence of water on the Moon. I knew the Mercury announcement was coming, and asked him for some details. Based on what he told me, it struck me that the evidence for water on Mercury is actually more conclusive than the evidence for the Moon. (In fact, inconclusive nature of the lunar data is the point of my Astronomy article, based on previous posts here and here on Behind The Black.
The more intriguing aspect of this discovery on Mercury, however, is the unknown dark material that covers and protects some of this water ice. That some scientists believe it might even be organic material deposited there by comets and asteroids is most interesting.
Messenger has found new and “compelling” evidence that there is water ice locked in the permanently shadowed craters of Mercury.
On Monday I had spoken to one of the project scientists for this discovery, David Lawrence, in connection with an article I am doing for Astronomy on the evidence of water on the Moon. I knew the Mercury announcement was coming, and asked him for some details. Based on what he told me, it struck me that the evidence for water on Mercury is actually more conclusive than the evidence for the Moon. (In fact, inconclusive nature of the lunar data is the point of my Astronomy article, based on previous posts here and here on Behind The Black.
The more intriguing aspect of this discovery on Mercury, however, is the unknown dark material that covers and protects some of this water ice. That some scientists believe it might even be organic material deposited there by comets and asteroids is most interesting.
The sad state of modern science
Two stories today illustrate the levels of corruption that now percolate through many fields of science, helped by a willing and sometimes ignorant press.
First, a final report has been issued in the investigation into the fraudulent research of social psychologist Diederik Stapel. Sadly, it appears the report condemns the entire field:
» Read more
Cassini has taken some spectacular new images of the gigantic hexagonal vortex on Saturn’s north pole.
Cassini has taken some spectacular new images of the gigantic hexagon-shaped vortex on Saturn’s north pole.
Cassini has taken some spectacular new images of the gigantic hexagon-shaped vortex on Saturn’s north pole.
The biggest black hole yet found, 17 billion times the mass of our sun.
The biggest black hole yet found, 17 billion times the mass of our sun.
The unusual black hole makes up 14 percent of its galaxy’s mass, rather than the usual 0.1 percent. … NGC 1277 [the galaxy] lies 220 million light-years away in the constellation Perseus. The galaxy is only ten percent the size and mass of our own Milky Way. Despite NGC 1277’s diminutive size, the black hole at its heart is more than 11 times as wide as Neptune’s orbit around the Sun.
Based on these measurements, it appears that this black hole is literally eating this galaxy whole.
The biggest black hole yet found, 17 billion times the mass of our sun.
The unusual black hole makes up 14 percent of its galaxy’s mass, rather than the usual 0.1 percent. … NGC 1277 [the galaxy] lies 220 million light-years away in the constellation Perseus. The galaxy is only ten percent the size and mass of our own Milky Way. Despite NGC 1277’s diminutive size, the black hole at its heart is more than 11 times as wide as Neptune’s orbit around the Sun.
Based on these measurements, it appears that this black hole is literally eating this galaxy whole.
NASA is soliciting ideas on how to use the two Cold War era telescopes given to the space agency by the military.
NASA is soliciting ideas on how to use the two Cold War era telescopes given to the space agency by the military.
Both telescopes are comparable in size to the Hubble Space Telescope.
NASA is soliciting ideas on how to use the two Cold War era telescopes given to the space agency by the military.
Both telescopes are comparable in size to the Hubble Space Telescope.
Impressive radar images of near-Earth asteroid 2007 PA8 were taken during its recent fly-by of Earth.
Impressive radar images of near-Earth asteroid 2007 PA8 were taken during its recent fly-by of Earth.
The images … reveal possible craters, boulders, an irregular, asymmetric shape, and very slow rotation. The asteroid measures approximately one mile wide (about 1.6 kilometers).
The asteroid poses no threat to Earth. The resolution of the images, however, is astonishing, especially considering it was done by radar.
Impressive radar images of near-Earth asteroid 2007 PA8 were taken during its recent fly-by of Earth.
The images … reveal possible craters, boulders, an irregular, asymmetric shape, and very slow rotation. The asteroid measures approximately one mile wide (about 1.6 kilometers).
The asteroid poses no threat to Earth. The resolution of the images, however, is astonishing, especially considering it was done by radar.
Russia and the U.S. have named the two astronauts who will spend a year in space beginning in 2015.
Real progress: Russia and the U.S. have named the two astronauts who will spend a year in space beginning in 2015.
This mission will also make room for a Russian tourist flight during that same time period.
Real progress: Russia and the U.S. have named the two astronauts who will spend a year in space beginning in 2015.
This mission will also make room for a Russian tourist flight during that same time period.
Pac Man in orbit around Saturn.
A new world speed record for a sailing vessel was set today at more than 75 miles per hour.
A new world speed record for a sailing vessel was set today at more than 65 knots, or 75 miles per hour. With video.
To give some perspective, the best the clipper ships ever did was 10-14 knots.
A new world speed record for a sailing vessel was set today at more than 65 knots, or 75 miles per hour. With video.
To give some perspective, the best the clipper ships ever did was 10-14 knots.
2000 pingpong balls and 30 teachers in zero gravity
The sun has a split personality.
The sun has a split personality.
The sun has a split personality.
NASA is downplaying the hype about a big discovery by Curiosity.
Surprise, surprise! NASA is downplaying the hype about a possible big discovery by Curiosity.
As I noted, Curiosity might have found something that is interesting and exciting, but every news source that hyped this story deserves criticism. Good journalism is reporting the news, not speculating about something that hasn’t happened yet.
Surprise, surprise! NASA is downplaying the hype about a possible big discovery by Curiosity.
As I noted, Curiosity might have found something that is interesting and exciting, but every news source that hyped this story deserves criticism. Good journalism is reporting the news, not speculating about something that hasn’t happened yet.
Has Curiosity made a big discovery?
Has Curiosity made a big discovery?
There has been a lot of buzz the past twenty-four hours about the possibility of a major discovery from Curiosity. However, I agree with Jeffrey Kluger at Time. It is dangerous to pay much attention to these wild speculations, as they are often wrong. Stay calm, and wait for some real information. The most likely possibility is that they have found something very intriguing and exciting, but not Earth-shaking.
Has Curiosity made a big discovery?
There has been a lot of buzz the past twenty-four hours about the possibility of a major discovery from Curiosity. However, I agree with Jeffrey Kluger at Time. It is dangerous to pay much attention to these wild speculations, as they are often wrong. Stay calm, and wait for some real information. The most likely possibility is that they have found something very intriguing and exciting, but not Earth-shaking.