Sunspot update: NOAA scientists try to hide how wrong they have gotten things

My monthly sunspot update today will have less to do with the Sun’s sunspot activity itself — which continues to show a very very slow decline from a peak in August 2024 — and more to do with more games-playing by NOAA solar scientists to fool the public into believing they know more than they do.

Below is my annotated version of NOAA’s monthly graph showing the amount of sunspot activity on the Earth-facing hemisphere of the Sun. This graph is significantly different from the graph that NOAA’s scientists have issued for the past few years, with all the changes designed to make it seem as if these scientists’ predictions are on the money, when they have been entirely wrong now for two solar cycles in a row.
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Twenty years of Hubble data map one long season on Uranus

Uranus over twenty years
Click for original image.

Astronomers using the Hubble Space Telescope multiple times since 2002 have now tracked the changes in its atmosphere during one quarter of its 84 year orbit around the Sun.

The image to the right, reduced and sharpened to post here, shows Hubble’s views across several electromagnetic wavelengths. Uranus’s rotational tilt or inclination is almost 90 degrees, so that it literally rolls on its side as it orbits the Sun. You can see this especially in the bottom two rows. From 2012 to 2022 one pole slowly shifted westward. From the press release:

The Hubble team observed Uranus four times in the 20-year period: in 2002, 2012, 2015, and 2022. They found that, unlike conditions on the gas giants Saturn and Jupiter, methane is not uniformly distributed across Uranus. Instead, it is strongly depleted near the poles. This depletion remained relatively constant over the two decades. However, the aerosol and haze structure changed dramatically, brightening significantly in the northern polar region as the planet approaches its northern summer solstice in 2030.

Since we have not yet observed Uranus over one full year, there are a lot of uncertainties in any conclusions the scientists propose. For one, we don’t know the general atmospheric patterns across all four seasons. For another, any changes seen now might simply be the planet’s weather, random events not directly related to long term climate patterns.

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Airbus wins contract to build lander for Europe’s long delayed ExoMars Franklin rover

Low resolution cropped section of map
Geology map for Franklin landing site. Click for
original image. Click here for original article.

The European Space Agency (ESA) late yesterday announced that it has awarded Airbus a $194 million contract to build the lander that will place Europe’s long delayed ExoMars Franklin rover on the Martian surface, replacing the Russian lander that became unavailable when the ESA/Russian partnership ended after Russia invaded the Ukraine in 2022.

Airbus announced late March 28 (Eastern time) that it was selected by ESA and Thales Alenia Space, the prime contractor for the mission, to build the landing platform for that rover mission, scheduled to launch in 2028.

The landing platform is the part of the ExoMars spacecraft that handles the final phases of its descent to the Martian surface in 2030, including performing the final landing burn. After landing, the platform will deploy ramps to allow the ExoMars rover, named Rosalind Franklin, to roll onto the Martian surface.

This project was first begun in the early 2010s, with a launch date targeting 2018. Initially a partnership between ESA and NASA, Obama canceled all American participation in 2012. Russia picked up the slack, but then the mission had numerous technical problems that caused it to miss first that 2018 launch window, and then 2020 window as well. Then, just months before launch in 2022, Russia invaded the Ukraine, resulting in Europe ending all its partnership deals with Russia.

The mission is now working to launch in the 2028 window. We shall see if it can meet that date.

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NASA experiment on Blue Ghost demonstrates the ability to repel the Moon’s abrasive dust

Before and after
Click for original blink movie.

In a press release yesterday, NASA revealed that one of its technology experiments on Firefly’s Blue Ghost lunar lander successfully demonstrated the ability to repel the Moon’s abrasive dust from the surfaces of various materials.

Lunar dust is extremely abrasive and electrostatic, which means it clings to anything that carries a charge. It can damage everything from spacesuits and hardware to human lungs, making lunar dust one of the most challenging features of living and working on the lunar surface. The EDS technology uses electrodynamic forces to lift and remove the lunar dust from its surfaces. The “before” image highlights the glass and thermal radiator surfaces covered in a layer of regolith, while the “after” image reveals the results following EDS activation. Dust was removed from both surfaces, proving the technology’s effectiveness in mitigating dust accumulation.

The images to the right, taken from a blink movie showing the change after the EDS technology was used, suggest that though this technology does work, it is not yet wholly successful in some cases. The thermal radiator was not cleared entirely of dust. More engineering research will be necessary, both on the Moon and here on Earth.

Nonetheless, this success is important and a major step forward for future exploration of the Moon, Mars, and the asteroids. In all these places dust is going to pose a major problem for equipment and spacesuits. New techniques must be developed to clean the dust away, since traditional Earth-based cleaning methods using water will not be available.

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Webb finds more elements not possible so soon after the Big Bang

A galaxy that shouldn't be there
Click for original image.

The uncertainty of science: Using the Webb Space Telescope, astronomers have now detected emissions of hydrogen from a galaxy that exists only 330 million years after the Big Bang that simply shouldn’t be possible, based on present cosmological theory.

The false-color infrared image of that galaxy is to the right, cropped to post here. At that distance, 13.5 billion light years away, all Webb can really see is this blurry spot. From the press release:

In the resulting spectrum, the redshift was confirmed to be 13.0. This equates to a galaxy seen just 330 million years after the big bang, a small fraction of the universe’s present age of 13.8 billion years old. But an unexpected feature stood out as well: one specific, distinctly bright wavelength of light, known as Lyman-alpha emission, radiated by hydrogen atoms. This emission was far stronger than astronomers thought possible at this early stage in the universe’s development.

“The early universe was bathed in a thick fog of neutral hydrogen,” explained Roberto Maiolino, a team member from the University of Cambridge and University College London. “Most of this haze was lifted in a process called reionization, which was completed about one billion years after the big bang. GS-z13-1 is seen when the universe was only 330 million years old, yet it shows a surprisingly clear, telltale signature of Lyman-alpha emission that can only be seen once the surrounding fog has fully lifted. This result was totally unexpected by theories of early galaxy formation and has caught astronomers by surprise.”

In more blunt terms, the theory that the haze would clear only one billion years after the Big Bang appears very wrong. This result is also similar to the story earlier this week about the detection of oxygen in a similarly early galaxy, oxygen that could not possibly be there only a few hundred million years after the Big Bang. Not enough time had passed for the number of star generations needed to produce it.

You can read the peer-reviewed paper here. While the Big Bang theory is hardly dead, the data from Webb continues to suggest it either needs a major rethinking, or there is something fundamentally wrong with it.

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Parker completes 23rd close fly-by of Sun, matching record set by its previous fly-by

The Parker Solar Probe on March 22, 2025 successfully completed its 23rd close fly-by of Sun, matching the distant and speed records set by its previous fly-by in December 2024.

NASA’s Parker Solar Probe completed its 23rd close approach to the Sun on March 22, equaling its own distance record by coming within about 3.8 million miles (6.1 million kilometers) of the solar surface. The close approach (known as perihelion) occurred at 22:42 UTC — or 6:42 p.m. EDT — with Parker Solar Probe moving 430,000 miles per hour (692,000 kilometers per hour) around the Sun, again matching its own record.

Actual science data won’t be downloaded from the spacecraft for several weeks, but it has sent back a signal that it is in good shape and operating as expected.

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Webb images in the infrared the aurora of Neptune

The aurora of Neptune
Click for original image.

Astronomers using the Webb Space Telescope have captured the first infrared images of the aurora of Neptune, confirming that the gas giant produces this phenomenon.

The picture to the right combines infrared data from Webb and optical imagery from the Hubble Space Telescope. The white splotches near the bottom of the globe are clouds seen by Hubble. The additional white areas in the center and near the top are clouds detected by Webb, while the greenish regions to the right are aurora activity detected by Webb.

The auroral activity seen on Neptune is also noticeably different from what we are accustomed to seeing here on Earth, or even Jupiter or Saturn. Instead of being confined to the planet’s northern and southern poles, Neptune’s auroras are located at the planet’s geographic mid-latitudes — think where South America is located on Earth.

This is due to the strange nature of Neptune’s magnetic field, originally discovered by Voyager 2 in 1989, which is tilted by 47 degrees from the planet’s rotation axis. Since auroral activity is based where the magnetic fields converge into the planet’s atmosphere, Neptune’s auroras are far from its rotational poles.

The data also found that the temperature of Neptune’s upper atmosphere has cooled significantly since it was first measured by Voyager 2 in 1989, dropping by several hundred degrees.

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Survey of protoplanetary disks finds their size varies significantly

Proto-planetary disks of all sizes
Click for original image.

A survey of the protoplanetary disks in a star-forming region about 400 light years from Earth has found that the size of the disks can vary considerably, with many much smaller than our own solar system.

Using ALMA [Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array in Chile], the researchers imaged all known protoplanetary discs around young stars in Lupus, a star forming region located about 400 light years from Earth in the southern constellation Lupus. The survey reveals that two-thirds of the 73 discs are small, with an average radius of six astronomical units, this is about the orbit of Jupiter. The smallest disc found was only 0.6 astronomical units in radius, smaller than the orbit of Earth.

…The small discs were primarily found around low-mass stars, with a mass between 10 and 50 percent of the mass of our Sun. This is the most common type of star found in the universe.

You can read the research paper here [pdf]. The image to the right, figure 1 from the paper, shows 71 of those disks, with two-thirds clearly much smaller than our solar system.

Because exoplanet surveys have found many small exoplanets around low-mass stars, this new data suggests that planets can also form from these small accretion disks, and that planet formation is also ubiquitous throughout the universe.

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Martian stucco

Martian stucco
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on January 24, 2025 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). Labeled simply as a “terrain sample,” it was likely taken not as part of any specific research request but to fill a gap in the schedule in order to maintain the camera’s proper temperature.

In this case the camera team got something quite intriguing. The entire terrain is reminiscent of stucco found on the outside walls of southwest homes. What makes even more intriguing is that the stucco appears to be material that has covered the terrain, based on the two craters that appear half-buried by it. Moreover, this picture only captures a small portion of this landscape, which extends like this over an area approximately 40 miles squared.

What caused this strange terrain? As always, the overview map below provides a clue, though no firm answers.
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Scientists believe they have found evidence of largest carbon molecules yet in Curiosity drill sample

The uncertainty of science: Scientists analyzing material drilled out by the Mars rover Curiosity back in 2013 now believe the sample included the largest carbon molecules yet found on Mars.

The detection of these long and large carbon molecules was based not on actual Martian data, taken at a site dubbed Cumberland on the floor of Gale Crater, but on follow-up lab work on Earth.

The recent organic compounds discovery was a side effect of an unrelated experiment to probe Cumberland for signs of amino acids, which are the building blocks of proteins. After heating the sample twice in [the Curiosity] SAM’s oven and then measuring the mass of the molecules released, the team saw no evidence of amino acids. But they noticed that the sample released small amounts of decane, undecane, and dodecane [thought to be fragments of fatty acids].

Because these compounds could have broken off from larger molecules during heating, scientists worked backward to figure out what structures they may have come from. They hypothesized these molecules were remnants of the fatty acids undecanoic acid, dodecanoic acid, and tridecanoic acid, respectively.

The scientists tested their prediction in the lab, mixing undecanoic acid into a Mars-like clay and conducting a SAM-like experiment. After being heated, the undecanoic acid released decane, as predicted. The researchers then referenced experiments already published by other scientists to show that the undecane could have broken off from dodecanoic acid and dodecane from tridecanoic acid.

Based on this Earth lab work, the scientists now suggest that Mars could also have these much longer carbon molecules that are associated with biological processes.

Very intriguing, but we must exercise caution. Curiosity did not detect such molecules, only evidence that they might exist on Mars. And even if they do exist on Mars, this is not evidence that Mars has or once had biological life. While such large molecules on Earth are usually associated with biological processes, they do not have to be, as the scientists readily admit in their abstract. Furthermore, in the alien environment of Mars there could be many non-biological processes we don’t even yet understand that could explain their existence.

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Firefly awards Blue Origin subsidiary contract to build rover for third Blue Ghost mission

Blue Ghost 3 landing site
Blue Ghost 3 landing site

Firefly yesterday announced that it has awarded the Blue Origin subsidiary Honeybee Robotics a contract to build a rover for its third Blue Ghost mission to the Moon.

Firefly Aerospace and Honeybee Robotics, a Blue Origin company, today announced Honeybee was contracted by Firefly to provide the lunar rover for the company’s recently awarded NASA task order to explore the Gruithuisen Domes on the Moon’s near side in 2028. Once deployed on the Moon by Firefly’s Blue Ghost lander, Honeybee’s rover will carry NASA instruments to investigate the unique composition of the Gruithuisen Domes.

The funding for this rover actually comes from NASA, awarded first to Firefly which has in turn given a subcontract to Honeybee.

Before this 2028 mission however Firefly will launch its second Blue Ghost mission to the Moon, targeting a 2026 launch date. That second mission will not only land on the far side of the Moon, it will also deploy two lunar orbiters, one for European and the second Firefly’s own orbital tug for these spacecraft that will also service as a communications satellite after deployment.

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New Webb infrared image reveals galaxy hidden behind outflow from baby star

Webb infrared image of baby star outflow
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The false-color infrared image to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken by the Webb Space Telescope of the outflow from a baby star, dubbed Herbig-Haro 49/50, located about 625 light years away.

The picture was taken to get a better understanding of the flow itself. Earlier infrared images at much lower resolution by the Spitzer Space Telescope had left many features in this outflow unclear. For example, at the head of the outflow the Spitzer infrared image was unable to clearly identify the background spiral galaxy located there. In those earlier images it could have instead been a part of the outflow itself.

The galaxy that appears by happenstance at the tip of HH 49/50 is a much more distant, face-on spiral galaxy. It has a prominent central bulge represented in blue that shows the location of older stars. The bulge also shows hints of “side lobes” suggesting that this could be a barred-spiral galaxy. Reddish clumps within the spiral arms show the locations of warm dust and groups of forming stars. The galaxy even displays evacuated bubbles in these dusty regions

The actual source from which this flow comes remains unconfirmed, though astronomers think the source is one particular protostar about 1.5 light years away.

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Perseverance spots a rock made of many tiny spherules

Rock made of spherules found by Perseverance
Click for wide shot. The original of the inset
can be found here.

In their exploration of the outer flanks of the rim of Jezero Crater, the science team operating the Perseverance rover have discovered an unusual rock different than everything around it, appearing to be made of many very tiny spherules.

The picture to the right illustrates this. The wider picture was taken by Perseverance’s left high resolution camera, with the inset a close-up mosaic of three images taken by the rover’s micro-imager, designed to get very very high resolution pictures of small objects. From the press release:

The rock, named “St. Pauls Bay” by the team, appeared to be comprised of hundreds of millimeter-sized, dark gray spheres. Some of these occurred as more elongate, elliptical shapes, while others possessed angular edges, perhaps representing broken spherule fragments. Some spheres even possessed tiny pinholes! What quirk of geology could produce these strange shapes?

This isn’t the first time strange spheres have been spotted on Mars. In 2004, the Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity spotted so-called, “Martian Blueberries” at Meridiani Planum, and since then, the Curiosity rover has observed spherules in the rocks of Yellowknife Bay at Gale crater. Just a few months ago, Perseverance itself also spied popcorn-like textures in sedimentary rocks exposed in the Jezero crater inlet channel, Neretva Vallis. In each of these cases, the spherules were interpreted as concretions, features that formed by interaction with groundwater circulating through pore spaces in the rock.

Not all spherules form this way, however. They also form on Earth by rapid cooling of molten rock droplets formed in a volcanic eruption, for instance, or by the condensation of rock vaporized by a meteorite impact.

At the moment the science team has no idea which of these theories explains the spherules. That the rock is located on the crater rim, where ejecta from the impact will be found, strongly suggests the impact was the cause, not groundwater flow.

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New research finds cosmic rays hitting the atmosphere cause of the ignition of lightning

Two lightning flashes graphed
Click for original image.

New research has now found that the shower of energy produced when a cosmic ray hits the atmosphere could be a major cause for the ignition of lightning in thunderheads.

You can read the paper here. The two graphs to the right are taken from figure 3 of the paper, and show two different lightning events. The colors represent time, going from green (earliest) to blue to yellow and red (latest). The white dot marks the spot where the lightning flash started. From the article above:

We believe that that most lightning flashes in thunderstorms are ignited by cosmic ray showers,” says the study’s lead author Xuan-Min Shao, a senior scientist at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico.

…One of the important things about cosmic ray showers is that they contain antimatter–positrons as well as ordinary electrons. The Los Alamos 3D lightning maps contained strong evidence for positrons. Electrons and positrons are bent in opposite directions by Earth’s magnetic field, so they leave opposite imprints on the lightning’s polarization, which BIMAP-3D also measured.

…Positrons clinched the case for cosmic rays. “The fact that a cosmic ray shower provides an ionized path in the cloud that otherwise lacks free electrons strongly favor the inference that most lightning flashes are ignited by cosmic rays,” the authors wrote.

It remains unclear if cosmic rays cause all lightning flashes or just some. Either way, it is a remarkable thing to consider: Cosmic rays are created in distant interstellar and even intergalactic events. The rays take millions, maybe billions of years to reach Earth. And when they do, they produce lightning in thunderstorms!

Hat tip reader Steve Golson.

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Oxygen found in the most distant known galaxy, too soon after the Big Bang

The uncertainty of science: Astronomers studying the most distant galaxy so far discovered, 13.4 billion light years away and existing only 300 million years after the Big Bang, have now detected the existence of oxygen, an element that simply should not have had the time to develop in such a short time span.

The new oxygen detection with ALMA, a telescope array in Chile’s Atacama Desert, suggests the galaxy is much more chemically mature than expected. “It is like finding an adolescent where you would only expect babies,” says Sander Schouws, a PhD candidate at Leiden Observatory, the Netherlands, and first author of the Dutch-led study, now accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal. “The results show the galaxy has formed very rapidly and is also maturing rapidly, adding to a growing body of evidence that the formation of galaxies happens much faster than was expected.”

Galaxies usually start their lives full of young stars, which are made mostly of light elements like hydrogen and helium. As stars evolve, they create heavier elements like oxygen, which get dispersed through their host galaxy after they die. Researchers had thought that, at 300 million years old, the Universe was still too young to have galaxies ripe with heavy elements. However, the two ALMA studies indicate JADES-GS-z14-0 has about 10 times more heavy elements than expected.

The spectroscopy that confirmed the oxygen also allowed the scientists to confirm the galaxy’s distance, which also confirmed the fact that there is something seriously wrong with the present theories of cosmologists about the formation of the universe. Present theory requires at least several generations of star birth followed by star death, with each forming heavier and heavier atoms. Such a process is expected to take far more than 300 million years.

Either that theory is very wrong, or the theory of the Big Bang has problems. The facts don’t fit the theories, and when that happens, it is the theories that must be abandoned.

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High ridge down the center of a big Martian crack

High ridge down the middle of a Martian canyon
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on January 27, 2025 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). Labeled simply as a “terrain sample,” it was likely taken not as part of any specific research project but to fill a gap in the schedule in order to maintain the camera’s proper temperature.

Whenever the camera team needs to do this, they try to find an interesting object to photograph, and often succeed. In this case they focused on the geology to the right. I suspect that at first glance my readers will have trouble deciphering what they are looking at. Let me elucidate: This this a 2.5-mile-wide canyon, about 1,000 feet deep, that is bisected by a ridge about 500 feet high.

On the sunlight walls of this canyon you can see boulders and debris, with material gathered on the canyon floor. The smoothness of the floor suggests also that a lot of Martian dust, likely volcanic ash, has become trapped there over the eons.
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Firefly releases movie of lunar sunset

Sunset on the Moon
Click for original image.

Using imagery taken by Firefly’s Blue Ghost lander, the company today released a short movie showing sunset on the Moon, from several different angles.

I have embedded that movie below. The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, is one of the photos from that movie. It shows the Sun on the horizon, with the Earth above it and Venus the small bright dot in between.

One alien aspect of the Moon that that while the Sun (and Venus) slowly crossed the sky during Firefly’s two week mission, going from just after sunrise in the east to sunset in the west, the Earth remained stationary in this location above the horizon. This phenomenon occurs because the length of the Moon’s day and its orbit around the Earth are the same length, so that one hemisphere always faces the Earth. Blue Ghost landed in Mare Crisium on the eastern edge of that hemisphere. At that location the Earth always hangs at this spot in the sky.
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More surprises from the Wolf-Rayet star numbered 104 and known for its pinwheel structure

Keck infrared data of WR104

Among astronomers who study such things, Wolf-Rayet 104 is one of the most well known OB massive stars in their catalog, with the infrared picture to the right illustrating why. The star is actually a binary of massive stars, orbiting each other every eight months. Both produce strong winds, and the collision of those winds results in a glorious pinwheel structure that glows in the infrared.

Such stars are also believed to be major candidates to go supernova and in doing so produce a powerful gamma ray burst (GRB) that would shoot out from the star’s poles. As the orientation of this pinwheel suggests we are looking down into the pole of the system, this star system was actually considered a potentially minor threat to Earth. Located about 8,400 light years away, this is far enough away to mitigate the power of the GRB, but not eliminate entirely its ability to damage the Earth’s atmosphere.

New research now suggests however that despite the orientation of the pinwheel, face-on, the plane of the binary star system is actually tilted 30 to 40 degrees to our line of sight. The press release asks the new questions these results raise:

While a relief for those worried about a nearby GRB pointed right at us, this represents a real curveball. How can the dust spiral and the orbit be tilted so much to each other? Are there more physics that needs to be considered when modelling the formation of the dust plume?

You can read the paper here. It is a quite refreshing read, not just because of its relatively plain language lacking jargon, but because of its willingness to list at great length the uncertainties of the data.

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Curiosity’s newest view from the heights

Mars in its glorious barrenness
Click for original image.

Overview map
Click for interactive map.

Cool image time! The panorama above, cropped slightly to post here, was taken today by the right navigation camera on the Mars rover Curiosity. It looks north from the rover’s present location on the flank of Mount Sharp, with the rim of Gale Crater in the far distance about 20 to 30 miles away. Curiosity now sits about 3,000 feet above the floor of the crater.

The blue dot on the overview map to the right marks the rover’s position at this time. The yellow lines indicate the approximate view of the panorama. As with all of the images from both Curiosity and Perseverance, the main impression is a barren and lifeless landscape of incredible stark beauty.

It is now very evident that the Curiosity science team has made the decision to abandon their original route to the west. Instead, they have decided to strike south up into this canyon because it provides them the easiest and fastest route to the boxwork geology to the southwest. It also has them climbing into new geological layers rather than descending into layers that the rover has already seen.

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The next time someone tells you Mars lacks water, show them this picture

Lots of near surface ice on Mars
Click for original image.

In the past decade orbital images from Mars have shown unequivocally that the Red Planet is not the dry desert imagined by sci-fi writers for many decades prior to the space age. Nor is it the dry desert that planetary scientists had first concluded based on the first few decades of planetary missions there.

No, what the orbiters Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) and Mars Express have clearly shown is that, except for the planet’s equatorial regions below 30 degrees latitude, the Martian surface is almost entirely covered by water ice, though it is almost always buried by a thin layer of protective dust and debris. Getting to that ice will be somewhat trivial, however, as it is almost always near the surface.

The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, is a perfect example. It was taken on January 31, 2025 by the high resolution camera on MRO. At the top it shows part of a small glacial-filled crater surrounded by blobby ground clearly impregnated with ice. That crater in turn sits on the rim of a much larger very-eroded ancient 53-mile-wide crater whose floor, also filled with glacial debris, can be seen at the bottom of this picture. The wavy ridge line at the base of the rim appears to be a moraine formed by the ebb and flow of the glacial ice that fills this larger crater.

None of these glacial features is particularly unique on Mars. I have been documenting their presence now at Behind the Black for more than six years. Yet, I find still that most news organizations — including many in the space community — remain utterly unaware of these revelations. Any new NASA or university press release that mentions the near-surface ice that covers about two-thirds of the planet’s surface results in news stories claiming “Water has been found on Mars!”, as if this is a shocking new fact from a place where little water is found.

It is very shameful that so many reporters and news organizations are so far out of touch with the actual state of the research on Mars.
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