Tag: science

Do Kepler’s sunspot drawings tell us the length of the solar cycle in the 17th century?

9:19 am

Kepler's first sunspot drawing
Click for original image.

The uncertainty of science: Scientists have done a new analysis of Johannes Kepler’s three drawings of sunspots on the Sun in 1607, and have concluded that the solar cycle at that time — just before the start of the Maunder grand minimum of no sunspots for decades — was about the same length, 11 years, that has been measured since the 1700s onward.

You can read the peer-reviewed paper here. The drawing to the right is figure 1 in that paper, and shows Kepler’s first drawing of the Sun’s surface showing sunspots. From the paper’s conclusion:

In combination with sunspot drawings in the 1610s–1620s, it is reasonable to suppose that the duration of the Solar Cycle −13 was between 11 and 14 yr. This does not support Miyahara et al.’s claim of anomalously long/short durations for Solar Cycle −13 (16 yr) and Solar Cycle −14 (5 yr) but supports Usoskin et al.’s reconstruction of regular durations of Solar Cycle −13 (11 yr) and Solar Cycle −14 (14 yr).

In other words, the solar cycle prior to the sixty-plus yearlong Maunder Minimum, when few to none sunpots occurred, was about eleven years long, like now, and not five years or sixteen years long, as some scientists have theorized. Knowing the length and nature of the cycle before the Maunder grand minimum would help scientists predict when the next minimum might occur. It would also help them better document the Sun’s long term behavior.

There is however great uncertainty in this result, since there really is so little data about sunspots prior to the Maunder Minimum. Before Galileo’s first use of the telescope in astronomy in 1609, such observations like Kepler’s were rare and very difficult. The conclusions here are intriguing, but hardly convincing.

In fact, it is really impossible to get a defiinitive answer from this data. We really won’t know how the Sun behaves just prior to a grand minimum until it happens again and scientists can use modern technology to observe it.

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Zebra layering in the Martian high southern latitudes

1:39 pm

Zebra layering in the Martian high southern latitudes
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on May 16, 2024 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). The science team labeled it simple as a “terrain sample,” which usually indicates a picture not taken as part of any specific request or research project, but to fill a gap in the photography schedule in order to maintain the camera’s proper temperature.

When such pictures are necessary, the camera team tries to target the most interesting features that will be below MRO during the required time period. In this case they aimed for a north-facing slope, about 340 feet high, made up of a series of terraced layers, distinguished by the sharply contrasting bright flat benches and very dark cliff-faces.

While the cliffs are dark partly because of the sun is coming from the west, putting them in shadow, it is not entirely the cause. Note how the cliffs on the west side of the mound are also dark, suggesting that the darkness is a fundamental feature of the ground itself.
» Read more

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Webb: Carbon monoxide detected on surface of Uranus’s moon Ariel suggests an underground ocean

12:04 pm

The best image of Ariel, as seen by Voyager-2, January 24, 1986
Voyager-2’s best image of Ariel during the
January 24, 1986 fly-by. Click for original.

By doing infrared spectroscopy using the Webb Space Telescope, scientists have detected carbon monoxide (CO) and confirmed extensive carbon dioxide (CO2) deposits on the surface of Uranus’s moon Ariel, with the carbon monoxide suggesting the moon has an underground ocean.

Using NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope to collect chemical spectra of the moon and then comparing them with spectra of simulated chemical mixtures in the lab, a research team led by Richard Cartwright from the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) in Laurel, Maryland, found that Ariel has some of the most carbon dioxide-rich deposits in the solar system, adding up to an estimated 10 millimeters (0.4 inches) or more thickness on the moon’s trailing hemisphere. Among those deposits was another puzzling finding: the first clear signals of carbon monoxide.

“It just shouldn’t be there. You’ve got to get down to 30 kelvins [minus 405 degrees Fahrenheit] before carbon monoxide’s stable,” Cartwright said. Ariel’s surface temperature, meanwhile, averages around 65 F warmer. “The carbon monoxide would have to be actively replenished, no question.”

You can read the peer-reviewed paper here [pdf]. Though there are a number of ways in which the carbon monoxide can be replenished, the scientists think it is coming from an underground ocean. From the paper’s abstract:

The evidence for thick CO 2 ice deposits and the possible presence of carbonates on both hemispheres suggests that some carbon oxides could be sourced from Ariel’s interior, with their surface distributions modified by charged particle bombardment, sublimation, and seasonal migration of CO and CO 2 from high to low latitudes.

This theory however has not been confirmed, and the scientists admit it will take a probe making close observations of Ariel to find out for sure.

Hat tip to stringer Jay for this story.

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Webb takes infrared image of exoplanet

10:02 am

A Jupiter-sized exoplanet imaged by Webb
Click for original image.

Cool image time! Using the Webb Space Telescope, scientists have taken an infrared false color image of a multi-Jupiter-sized exoplanet located only twelve light years away and orbiting the K-type star Epsilon Indi A.

That picture, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, is to the right. The light of the star, indicated by the star symbol, has been blocked by Webb’s coronagraph, the size of which is shown by the dashed circle. The exoplanet is the orange blob to the left.

[This exoplanet] is one of the coldest exoplanets to be directly detected, with an estimated temperature of 35 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) — colder than any other imaged planet beyond our solar system, and colder than all but one free-floating brown dwarf. The planet is only around 180 degrees Fahrenheit (100 degrees Celsius) warmer than gas giants in our solar system. This provides a rare opportunity for astronomers to study the atmospheric composition of true solar system analogs.

The data also revealed that the exoplanet is twice as massive as expected and has a slightly different orbit than expected based on previous less precise data.

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Scientists find hydrogen molecules in Chang’e-5 lunar samples

9:18 am

According to China’s state-run press, scientists analyzing the lunar samples brought back by its Chang’e-5 lander have detected extensive “hydrated” molecules in Moon’s regolith.

The mineral’s structure and composition bear a striking resemblance to a mineral found near volcanoes on Earth. At the same time, terrestrial contamination or rocket exhaust has been ruled out as the origin of this hydrate, according to the study.

The Chinese article keeps referring to these molecules as a form of “water molecules” but that is dead wrong. These are mineral molecules that simply have hydrogen as a component. There is no water here.

The discovery suggests that the detection of hydrogen on the surface of the Moon, both in the permanently-shadowed craters at the poles as well as lower latitudes, might not be water at all, but hydrated minerals. If so, the Moon is going to be a much more difficult place to establish colonies or even research bases, as getting water (and hydrogen and oxygen) is going to require a much more difficult mining and processing effort.

For several years the data has increasingly pointed in this direction. And for several years I have noticed a strong unwillingness of scientists and the press to recognize the trend (as illustrated by the above article’s false insistence that these are water molecules). Water ice has not been ruled out yet in the permanently-shadowed craters at the poles, but the evidence is mounting against it.

I suspect this reluctance is fueled by a desire to not say anything that might discourage exploration of the Moon, and the possibility of water there has been the main driver for all the recent lunar exploration programs. I can’t play that game. As much as I want humanity to explore the Moon and the solar system, we mustn’t do it based on lies. The facts need to be reported coldly.

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More great hiking on Mars

11:01 am

More great hiking on Mars
Click for original image.

Today’s cool image takes us to another place on Mars where future colonizers will find the hiking breath-taking. The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on April 18, 2024 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). The camera team labeled it merely as a “terrain sample,” indicating it was not taken as part of any specific research project request, but to fill a gap in the schedule in order to maintain the camera’s proper temperature. When the MRO team does this, they try to pick interesting sites, sometimes successfully, sometimes not.

In this case the image captured the sharp nose of a 2,100-foot-high mesa which to my eye immedately said, “I want to hike a trail that switchbacks up that nose!” Ideally, the trail would then skirt the edge of the mesa, then head up to the top of that small knoll on the plateau. Though only another 200 feet higher or so, the peak would provide an amazing 360 degree view of the surrounding terrrain.
» Read more

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New collection of X-ray false-color Chandra images

9:30 am

Chandra image of galaxy
Click for original image.

Cool image time! As part of a PR campaign by NASA to convince Congress to give it more money to keep the Chandra X-ray Observatory funded, the agency this week released twenty-five new images, supposedly to celebrate the space telescope’s 25th anniversary since launch.

It must be emphasized that these photos are not solely produced by Chandra. They combine its X-ray data wth optical data from Hubble and infrared data from a number of other telescopes.

The picture to the right is of the galaxy NGC 6872 that is interacting with its nearby smaller neighbor. From the caption:

NGC 6872 is 522,000 light-years across, making it more than five times the size of the Milky Way galaxy; in 2013, astronomers from the United States, Chile, and Brazil found it to be the largest-known spiral galaxy, based on archival data from NASA’s Galaxy Evolution Explorer. This record was surpassed by NGC 262, a galaxy that measures 1.3 million light-years in diameter.

Chandra will get its funding to continue operations. NASA is simply playing its old game of bluff with Congress to force it to give the agency a boost in funding. Like a toddler throwing a tantrum, it cancels a successful project, citing funding shortages (even though those shortages are almost always because of mismanagement elsewhere in the agency), and Congress eventually gives in like a weak parent, raising NASA’s budget.

The big image release this week is part of that game. Nonetheless, the images are spectacular, and loaded with new information not otherwise available without Chandra’s X-ray capabilities. If Congress had any spine, it would force NASA to fully fund such successful projects and simply delete the failed ones (such as SLS and Mars Sample Return). It has no spine, however, and thus we have a national debt in the trillions that is bankrupting us.

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A classic spiral galaxy

8:53 am

A classic spiral galaxy
Click for original image.

Monday is always a slow news day in space, so we start the day with a cool image. The picture to the right, reduced and sharpened to post here, was taken by the Hubble Space Telescope of a spiral galaxy about 100 million light years from Earth.

That NGC 3430 is such a fine example of a galactic spiral may be why it ended up as part of the sample that Edwin Hubble used to define his classification of galaxies. Namesake of the Hubble Space Telescope, in 1926 he authored a paper which classified some four hundred galaxies by their appearance — as either spiral, barred spiral, lenticular, elliptical or irregular. This straightforward typology proved immensely influential, and the modern, more detailed schemes that astronomers use today are still based on it. NGC 3430 itself is an SAc galaxy, a spiral lacking a central bar with open, clearly-defined arms.

The bright blue indicates areas of star formation, while the reddish streaks indicates dust. The orange/reddish dots above and below the galaxy are distant background galaxies whose light has been shifted to the red because they appear to be moving away from us due to the expansion rate of the universe.

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ESA’s Juice probe to Jupiter prepares for first Earth+Moon slingshot fly-by

10:35 am

Graphic showing Juice's upcoming duel fly-by
Graphic showing Juice’s upcoming duel fly-by.
Click for original image.

The European Space Agency’s (ESA) first mission to Jupiter, dubbed Juice (Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer) is about to do the first ever back-to-back fly-bys of the Moon and then the Earth immediately afterward in order to slingshot it forward on its long journey to the gas giant.

The graphic to the right, cropped and reduced to post here, shows the plan. Juice will first fly past the Moon, shifting its path slightly, and then zip past the Earth one day later, its trajectory then under-going a much larger change.

The lunar-Earth flyby will see Juice pass just 700 km [435 miles] from the Moon’s surface at 23:16 CEST on 19 August and 6807 km [4230 miles] from Earth’s surface almost exactly 24 hours later at 23:57 CEST on 20 August.

Using the gravity of the Moon to slightly bend Juice’s trajectory first will improve the effectiveness of the much larger gravity assist at Earth. However, the dual flyby requires extraordinarily precise navigation and timing, as even minor deviations could send Juice in the wrong direction.

The engineering teams have already been doing simulations to make sure they get this complex maneuver right. If all goes right, the spacecraft will then do flybys of Venus in August 2025, Earth in September 2026, and Earth again in January 2029, arriving in Jupiter orbit in July 2031.

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Rocks broken by Curiosity’s wheels contain the first pure sulfur crystals found on Mars

10:16 am

Curiosity's robot arm about to take a close look at the ground
Click for original image.

Close-up of rocks on Mars
Click for original image.

When Curiosity completed a drive on May 30, 2024, subsequent images from the rover revealed that the wheels had broken apart some small rocks, revealing very bright yellow materials not normally seen on the planet.

I posted those images on June 7, 2024 — noting that such colorful and crystal-like surface features have been rarely seen by Curiosity — and post them again now, with the top picture showing the broken rocks, labeled as “target rocks”, just after the robot arm had rotated up and away from a close inspection and imaging of those rocks. The picture to the right is a close-up taken by Curiosity’s Mars Hand Lens Imager (MAHLI), located at the end of the rover’s robot arm and designed to get close-up high resolution images of the ground that the arm is exploring. Everything in this image is tiny, in the millimeters in scale.

The science team yesterday confirmed that those unusual rocks are the first pure crystals of sulfur found on the red planet.

Since October 2023, the rover has been exploring a region of Mars rich with sulfates, a kind of salt that contains sulfur and forms as water evaporates. But where past detections have been of sulfur-based minerals — in other words, a mix of sulfur and other materials — the rock Curiosity recently cracked open is made of elemental, or pure, sulfur. It isn’t clear what relationship, if any, the elemental sulfur has to other sulfur-based minerals in the area.

While people associate sulfur with the odor from rotten eggs (the result of hydrogen sulfide gas), elemental sulfur is odorless. It forms in only a narrow range of conditions that scientists haven’t associated with the history of this location. And Curiosity found a lot of it — an entire field of bright rocks that look similar to the one the rover crushed.

Analysis of samples taken from drilling into a nearby much more structurally solid rock is presently on-going. As for theories explaining the presence of this pure sulfur, those are being worked on as well.

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Scientists: Biden has infused DEI and racial quotas throughout the entire federal science bureaucracy

1:39 pm

Joe Biden, allied with Hamas
Joe Biden, like the KKK in love with racist quotas

A new research paper just completed by a international group of scientists details at length how the policies of critical race theory and its “diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI)” philosophy has been infused deeply into all levels of the entire federal science bureaucracy, influencing grant awards and hiring at the National Science Foundation (NSF), the National Institute of Health (NIH), the Department of Energy (DOE), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in ways that warp science and research and make good research impossible..

You can read the paper here [pdf]. From the press release:

The paper exposes how DEI has spread much further and more deeply into core scientific disciplines than most people, including many scientists, realize. This has happened, in large part, by presidential executive order (specifically, EO 13985 and EO 14091), implemented through the budget approval process.

The two executive orders listed were issued by President Biden in 2021 and 2023 respectively, with the first issued on his very first day in office. If you have the patience, it worth reading both, since they outline in great detail the goals of this administration to favor the hiring and promotion of “underserved communities,” which the first order lists as follows:
» Read more

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Curiosity looks up Gediz Vallis as it starts its journey out

10:45 am

Curiosity panorama looking south on July 16, 2024Curiosity panorama looking south on July 16, 2024. Click for high resolution. Go here, here, here, and here
for original images.

Overview map
Click for interactive map.

Even as the Curiosity science team is beginning the rover’s journey out of the giant Martian slot canyon Gediz Vallis, they have on July 16, 2024 used its high resolution camera to gather a new mosaic of the surrounding terrain. I have used four of those images (available here, here, here, and here) to create a panorama, as shown above, focusing on the view looking south up into Gediz Vallis. Make sure you click on the image to see the full resolution version.

The overview map to the right provides the context. The blue dot marks Curiousity’s present position. The yellow lines indicate the approximate area covered by the panorama. The white dotted line indicates Curiosity’s actual traveled route, while the red dotted line the planned route.

The peak of Mount Sharp is directly ahead in this panorama, out of sight and about 26 miles away and 16,000 feet higher up. To get a sense of how far away that remains, note that Curiosity in its dozen years of exploration on Mars has so far traveled just under 20 miles and climbed about 2,500 feet.

The plan is to back track downhill and circle around the nose of the western wall of Gediz Vallis and head south in a parallel canyon that is believed to provide easier traveling for Curiosity’s damaged wheels.

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