Firefly Aerospace buys defense contractor SciTec

Firefly Aerospace yesterday announced that it is buying the defense contractor SciTec for $300 million in cash plus $555 million in Firefly shares.

The shares go to SciTec’s owners at an agreed-to value of $50 per share, essentially making those individuals part owners of Firefly.

The acquisition will advance Firefly’s comprehensive space services by adding mission-proven defense software analytics, remote sensing, and multi-phenomenology data expertise. SciTec’s core capabilities – which include missile warning, tracking and defense, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, space domain awareness, and autonomous command and control – will supplement Firefly’s launch, lunar, and in-space services. SciTec further adds ground and onboard data processing as well as AI-enabled systems designed for low latency operations to support advanced threat tracking and response across multiple domains.

In other words, this acquisition is aimed at improving Firefly’s ability to win defense contracts, thus diversifying its business beyond outer space. This suggests its managers believe there isn’t enough business in outer space to put the company in the black. It needs defense contracts, and adding SciTech increases the odds it will win those contracts.

The stock price in this sale, $50, I think tells us something of the motives of SciTec’s owners. At present Firefly’s stock is selling at about $30 on Wall Street, and the price has not changed much today after this announcement. It appears the stock obtained by SciTec’s owners is thus not as valuable as listed in the intended sale price. This in turn suggests that those owners also needed this deal to diversify the company, and were willing to take a loss in the value of their stock to get it.

Then again, my understanding of how Wall Street and stocks function is limited, and my analysis on this point could be completely wrong.

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Space Force awards SpaceX and ULA seven launches worth more than a billion dollars

The U.S. Space Force (USSF) yesterday awarded multi-launch contracts to both SpaceX and ULA for seven launches beginning in 2027 worth more than a billion dollars.

SpaceX received $714 million for five launches and ULA was awarded $428 million for two launches, USSF said in an Oct. 3 news release.

The awards are part of the Space Force’s National Security Space Launch Program, which it uses to launch services for military space missions. In April, it chose SpaceX, ULA, and Blue Origin to launch a total of 54 missions scheduled between fiscal 2027 and 2032, with SpaceX responsible for just over half, with 28 launches. Individual missions will be awarded in batches through fiscal 2029.

Though Blue Origin was included in this program and its New Glenn rocket has finally launched once successfully, its not yet been certified to launch military satellites, and to get certified the company is going to have to launch at least one more time. That launch is expected before this month is out. Moreover, it will soon have to compete against more companies, and the Pentagon will be adding Rocket Lab and Stoke Space to its approved list as soon as both successfully launch their respective Neutron and Nova rockets by next year.

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Gilmour to attempt first launch again next year

Eris rocket launch and failure
Eris rocket falling sideways from launchpad
(indicated by red dot). Click for video, cued
to just before launch.

According to a presentation by the CEO and founder of Australian rocket startup Gilmour Space, the company now sufficiently understands what caused the failure on its first launch attempt on July 30 to plan a second attempt in 2026.

The company is still investigating the root cause of the failure. “It looks like what went wrong on the launch is something we’ve never tested close enough to the launch conditions before,” he said, but didn’t elaborate.

One factor in the launch was the long delay between shipping the rocket to the launch site, known as the Bowen Orbital Spaceport, and the launch itself. “Rockets aren’t designed to be at the launch site for 18 months,” he said. The launch site, he noted, is just a kilometer from the ocean, creating salty conditions that can be corrosive.

That extended time at the launch site stemmed from delays securing regulatory approvals for the launch. That included not just a launch license from the Australian Space Agency but also airspace, maritime and environmental permits. “We had to get 24 different permits from the Queensland government,” Gilmour said. “All of these things take a long time to do.” He acknowledged that the company had not put enough resources into those regulatory processes. “The approval processes just took way too long.”

What is ironic is that as bad as Australia appears to be in terms of red tape, it is far better that it mother country, Great Britain. At least in Australia spaceports have been approved and at least one launch has taken place. And it only took eighteen months! In Great Britain the permitting process for its two proposed rocket spaceports has taken almost a decade, and still no vertical launches have occurred at either.

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SpaceX launches 28 Starlink satellites

SpaceX this morning successfully launched another 28 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

The first stage completed its second flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

127 SpaceX
58 China
13 Russia
12 Rocket Lab

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 127 to 98.

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Satellite propulsion startup Portal successfully tests new and radical thruster design

The satellite propulsion startup Portal has become the first commercial company to test successfully a thruster that uses concentrated sunlight to ionize a fuel.

The concept has been studied several times by NASA and other government entities, but never tested to a point where it could be used on a mission. According to this report:

For the vacuum chamber test at Portal’s Bothell lab, engineers used an electrical induction system to simulate the sun’s heating power. The apparatus reached temperatures in the range of 1,500 degrees Celsius (2,700 degrees Fahrenheit), and the performance of the thruster validated Portal’s propulsion architecture for integration with future flight hardware.

The concept is similar to an ion engine, but appears to produce more thrust, allowing it to move satellites more quickly to different orbits. Portal hopes to do an in orbitat test by next year. The company has raised $17.5 million in private funding, and $45 million from an Air Force grant.

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Update on the plans to observe interstellar Comet 3I/Atlas using interplanetary spacecraft

Link here. The key take-away is that nothing is being repurposed to attempt to fly to Comet 3I/Atlas. Instead, as expected the science teams for all the Mars orbiters will turn their instruments to the comet when it is at its closest point to Mars, about 19 million miles away.

Don’t expect any Earth-shattering revelations:

The cameras on these spacecraft were designed to photograph the surface of Mars from Mars orbit, and won’t be able to pick out much detail on such a relatively small comet 30 million km away. But the cameras may be able to capture images of its long tail and also gather data that scientists can use to find out more about what 3I/ATLAS is made of.

Some spectroscopic data will be obtained, but it likely will not be much better than what Webb and other Earth-based telescopes have gotten already.

Similarly, the science team for Europe’s Juice mission, on its way to Jupiter, will take a look, but the distances and orbital positioning will likely limit what it can detect as well.

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The growing mystery of the little red dots in the early universe

The uncertainty of science: A review of the population of what scientists call “Little Red Dots” (LRDs) — discovered in the early universe by the Webb Space Telescope — has found that 30% do not appear to be compact objects when viewed in ultraviolet wavelengths.

The team studied 99 LRDs, and found that about 30% are not simply compact dots when observed in the ultraviolet.Instead, they reveal disturbed or clumpy structures, in stark contrast to their smooth, point-like appearance at optical wavelengths. Because these galaxies are so far away, their optical light is stretched, or “redshifted,” into the long-wavelength channel of JWST, where the resolution is not sharp enough to see structure, so they look like simple dots.

Rinaldi: ‘But their ultraviolet light is shifted into JWST’s short-wavelength channel, where the telescope has much finer resolution, and there we suddenly see clumps, asymmetries, and signs of interaction. On top of this, in the spectra of some of our LRDs we directly detect the fingerprints of active black holes, with gas moving at thousands of kilometres per second.’ This shows that at least part of this population is powered by growing black holes, while others seem to be dominated by star formation, making LRDs a mixed and diverse family of sources. This is a crucial clue, suggesting that mergers and galaxy interactions may be the trigger for the “LRD phase”.

In other words, astronomers don’t really know what these dots are at present. If some are supermassive black holes, this poses a problem for Big Bang cosmology, as there should not have been enough time since the Big Bang for these black holes to have formed.

That 70% still appear to be compact single objects might mean that’s what they are, but it could also mean that our present observations tools don’t yet have the ability to resolve them.

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Analysis of archived Cassini data finds a new slate of carbon-based molecules in the plumes of Enceladus

Enceladus at 77 miles
The tiger strip vents on Enceladus, seen
from 77 miles during 2015 fly-by. Resolution is
50 feet per pixel.

A new analysis of the archived Cassini data taken when the spacecraft flew through the plumes of the Saturn moon Enceladus in 2008 has revealed a number of new organic molecules (not life but carbon-based) that suggest the chemistry of the moon of Saturn is far more complex that expected.

You can read the paper here. From the abstract:

Here we present a comprehensive chemical analysis of organic-bearing ice grains sampled directly from the plume during a Cassini fly-by of Enceladus (E5) at an encounter speed of nearly 18 km [per second]. We again detect aryl and oxygen moieties in these fresh ice grains, as previously identified in older E-ring grains. Furthermore, the unprecedented high encounter speed revealed previously unobserved molecular fragments in Cosmic Dust Analyzer spectra, allowing the identification of aliphatic, (hetero)cyclic ester/alkenes, ethers/ethyl and, tentatively, N- and O-bearing compounds. These freshly ejected species are derived from the Enceladus subsurface, hinting at a hydrothermal origin and involvement in geochemical pathways towards the synthesis and evolution of organics.

In other words, this data further suggests there exists an underground ocean inside Enceladus, and that ocean has a lot of complex organic chemistry energized by the planet’s internal heat and the tidal forces imposed by Saturn’s gravity.

This is not the first time scientists have reviewed archived Cassini data of these plumes and found new molecules. It is simply a closer look at earlier analyses in 2018 and 2019.

This data has not discovered life, but it suggests that life is certainly possible within that proposed underground ocean. At a minimum, the chemistry there will be very complex and alien.

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Astronomers snap picture of a baby exoplanet

Baby planet
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped to post here, was taken using Magellan Telescope in Chile and the Large Binocular Telescope in Arizona. The exoplanet is the small purple dot to the right of the star and the accretion ring that surrounds it.

This exoplanet is very young, only about five million years old, and is thus still accumulating material. Even so, its mass is presently estimated to be five times that of Jupiter.

Following [the first] observations of the system, researchers looked at WISPIT 2, and spotted the planet WISPIT 2b for the first time, using the University of Arizona’s MagAO-X extreme adaptive optics system, a high-contrast exoplanet imager at the Magellan 2 (Clay) Telescope at Las Campanas Observatory in Chile. This technology adds another unique layer to this discovery. The MagAO-X instrument captures direct images, so it didn’t just detect WISPIT 2b, it essentially captured a photograph of the protoplanet.

…In addition to discovering WISPIT 2b, this team spotted a second dot in one of the other dark ring gaps even closer to the star WISPIT 2. This second dot has been identified as another candidate planet that will likely be investigated in future studies of the system.

You can read the paper here [pdf]. The other candidate exoplanet is the bright spot below the star, inside the ring.

The technology of astronomy continues to advance.

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International Astronautical Congress meeting in Australia produces several international agreements

During the International Astronautical Congress meeting that is going on in Sydney, Australia this week, a number of countries have signed agreements calling for a variety of partnerships.

None of the agreements appear to include any significant new projects. All suggest a desire to work together to foster development in their commercial space industries. The number of agreements with Australia is a reflection of the conference’s location in Sidney.

The most amusing agreement is the last, between the UK and Australia. The governments of both of these Commonwealth nations have had serious problems with red tape that have hindered commercial development, especially in the UK. The agreement expands a UK government grant program worth about $9 million so that Australian startups can win grants. It apparently does nothing to ease the red tape in either nation.

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Varda signs deal for more capsule landings in Australia

Proposed Australian spaceports
Australian spaceports: operating (red dot) and proposed (red “X”)
Click for original image.

The recoverable capsule company Varda has now signed a new deal that will allow it to land up to 20 more capsules at the commercial spaceport/range Southern Launch in Australia through 2028.

It has already landed capsules there twice. This new contract suggests that Varda has enough expected customers and products to place in its capsules to pay for about six or seven capsules launched per year. If so, this manufacturing model in space is going to bloom very quickly, and will likely become a major profit center for the commercial space stations now under development.

The deal also illustrates the utter failure of the U.S. government’s red tape, especially during the Biden administration.

The company landed its first mission, W-1, at the Utah Test and Training Range in February 2024. But difficulties securing licenses and other approvals for that mission prompted Varda to look elsewhere. “Through that experience, it became pretty clear that the U.S. was not going to be the location for high-cadence reentry operations in the near term,” Eric Lasker, Varda’s chief revenue officer, said at an IAC event announcing the new agreement.

Hopefully the anti-regulatory policies of Trump will change this, but for the moment our government has driven this American company away from the U.S.

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Belgium company joins Starlab space station consortium

Starlab design in 2025
The Starlab design in 2025. Click
for original image.

The Starlab consortium, proposing to build its single-module large Starlab space station that will be launched on Starship, has now added the Belgium company Space Applications Services (SpaceApps) as both a partner and investor.

SpaceApps contributes deep experience in space systems, mission operations and payload integration with capabilities that include avionics, payload development, the end-to-end International Commercial Experiment Cubes (ICECubes) service, as well as mission integration and operations control software. The company also works closely with the European Space Agency and international partners, broadening Starlab’s access to global markets and research communities.

The Starlab consortium already includes the American companies Voyager Space and Northrop Grumman and the European company Airbus. It also has a partnership agreement with the European Space Agency. This new Belgium partnership further cements its place as Europe’s potential future space station after ISS is retired.

This deal is only one of several news stories in the past week signaling progress by this consortium. It has signed the American company Vivace to build the station’s main structure and its partner Northrop Grumman has successfully tested the rendezvous and docking technology its Cygnus cargo capsule will use to dock with Starlab. All in all this station appears to be assembling the pieces its needs.

Below is my updated rankings of the four commercial stations under development:
» Read more

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