Tag: spaceflight

Hubble looks at a nearby dwarf galaxy

9:38 am

A nearby dwarf galaxy
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The photo to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken by the Hubble Space Telescope as part of a continuing project to capture high resolution images of every nearby galaxy, which in this particular case the caption describes as follows:

UGCA 307 hangs against an irregular backdrop of distant galaxies in this image from the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope. The small galaxy consists of a diffuse band of stars containing red bubbles of gas that mark regions of recent star formation, and lies roughly 26 million light-years from Earth in the constellation Corvus. Appearing as just a small patch of stars, UGCA 307 is a diminutive dwarf galaxy without a defined structure — resembling nothing more than a hazy patch of passing cloud.

The red regions of star formation are significant, as they indicate that even in a tiny galaxy like this it is possible for there to be enough gas and dust to coalesce into new stars.

Astronomers living on a world inside this galaxy have an advantage over astronomers on Earth. There is no large galaxy like the Milky Way blocking their view of the cosmos in one direction. They can see it all, even in directions looking through UGCA 307.

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Russia and China launch satellites

9:20 am

Two launches today in Russia and China.

First China used its Long March 2C rocket to launch a “remote sensing satellite” into orbit. No other information about the satellite was released. Nor was any information about whether the rocket’s first stage landed near habitable areas.

Next Russia used its Proton rocket to launch a classified satellite, likely a military surveillance satellite, into orbit. Like China Russia launches from an interior spaceport, with its first stage falling “in Karaganda Region of Kazakhstan,” with the second stage landing in drop zones in Russia. Russia, which has been doing this regularly for more than a half century, has always done a good job either avoiding habitable areas with the first stage crash, or keeping such stories out of the international press.

The 2023 launch race:

16 SpaceX
9 China
4 Russia
1 Rocket Lab
1 Japan
1 India

American private enterprise still leads China 17 to 9 in the national rankings, and the entire world combined 17 to 15. SpaceX alone is now tied with the entire world, including all other American companies, 16 all.

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Curiosity looks ahead: Which way to go?

10:23 pm

Curiosity's view on March 11, 2023
Click for high resolution version. For original images, go here and here.

Overview map

How about a bonus weekend cool image! The panorama above, created from two pictures taken on March 11, 2023 by the right navigation camera on the Mars rover Curiosity, gives us a wonderful view of the alien Martian terrain that the rover is presently within. It also shows us the dilemma mission planners have in planning the rover’s future travels.

The red dotted line on both the panorama and the overview map to the right indicates the planned route. The yellow lines on the map indicates the approximate area viewed by the panorama. The blue dot marks Curiosity’s present position, where it is presently in the middle of a drilling campaign in the marker layer where it sits.

The plan had been to travel to the east of what I like to call the the hill of pillows (in the middle of the panorama). Yet, it appears from this navigation image that the terrain might be less difficult to the west. Both routes will get the rover to its goal in Gediz Vallis.

I have no idea what the mission planners will decide to do. I am just a tourist going along for the ride, and sharing the journey with my readers. This is the first time any human spacecraft has ever traveled through such mountainous terrain on any planet.

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Relativity scrubs launch today again

2:06 pm

Relativity today was once again unable to complete the first launch of its Terran-1 prototype rocket.

The failure to launch was not for want of trying. The first countdown was first put on hold at T-1:10 when a boat entered the range. Once removed, the launch team picked up the count from that point without any recycle, but at T-0 the rocket’s internal computer sensed an issue and aborted the launch.

The launch team then reassessed, adjusted that issue, and tried again for a launch at the last second of the launch window, essentially duplicating the circumstances of an instantaneous launch window. The count this time got down to T-45 seconds when once again the rocket’s internal computer sensed an issue and aborted the launch.

No word yet on when the company will try again. If anything, Relativity’s launch team is getting a lot of practice and training with each launch attempt, critical knowledge needed for future launches.

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Some space startups threatened by Silicon Valley Bank failure

9:41 am

Link here. The companies mentioned in the article are Astra, BlackSky, Planet, Redwire, Rocket Lab, and Space Perspective.

Rocket Lab has about 8% of its cash assets now trapped by the closure. All the companies had loans from Silicon Valley Bank, some of which were paid off prior to the crash. This quote suggests the situation is critical for some space startups:

“It’s a very serious situation,” said a space sector entrepreneur who asked not to be identified. “Our balance is suddenly only $450. There has been no communication from SVB even after the event became known. Our primary SVB liaison, who has been very attentive in the past, is unreachable by any means. It’s appalling.”

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Live stream of the first launch attempt of Relativity’s Terran-1 rocket

9:15 am

I have embedded below the live stream of the first launch attempt of Relativity’s Terran-1 rocket, presently scheduled with a three hour launch window that opens at 1:00 pm (Eastern). The live stream will go live at noon.

The first launch of a new rocket is exceedingly challenging, and almost never succeeds. The key however is the data obtained that can be used to make the next launch attempt a success.

A lot rides on this launch. Relativity already has obtained $1.2 billion in launch contracts plus more than $1 billion in private investment capital, despite having never launched anything. Moreover, the Terran-1 rocket is really a prototype for its larger Terran-R rocket, which is intended to compete directly for the larger payloads that companies like SpaceX and ULA launch.

» Read more

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Ingenuity completes 47th flight, scouting ahead of Perseverance

11:55 am

Ingenuity sitting ahead of Perseverance, on the delta
Click for original image.

Overview map
Click for interactive map.

Though the science team has not, as of this posting, added the flight to Ingenuity’s flight log, according to the interactive map showing the positions of both Ingenuity and Perseverance on Mars, the helicopter completed its 47th flight yesterday as planned.

An annotated version of that map is to the right. The larger green dot marks Ingenuity’s new position. The smaller green dot marks its position when the panorama above was taken on February 27, 2023, capturing the helicopter in the distance (as indicated by the arrow). The yellow lines indicate the approximate area covered by that panorama. The blue dot marks Perseverance’s present position.

The flight’s planned distance was to go 1,410 feet to the southwest and “image science targets along the way.” As the helicopter also flew above Perseverance’s planned route, as indicated by the red dotted line, it also provided the rover team information about the ground Perseverance will travel along the way. Since the terrain here is generally not very rough, the information is not critical for route-picking. It might however spot some geological feature that bears a closer look that would not have been noticed by the rover alone.

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Biden administration proposes more budget increases for NASA

10:25 am

In releasing its proposed federal budget for 2024 with many major spending increases, the Biden administration has also proposed a significant increase in NASA’s budget. the third year in a row it has done so.

The shortened summary version of the Biden budget proposal [pdf] covers its proposals for NASA in two pages, with the most important proposals as follows:

  • A half billion dollar increase in the budget for the Artemis program for a total of $8.1 billion.
  • A commitment to partner on Europe’s ExoMars Franklin rover mission, replacing Russia.
  • $949 million to develop the Mars sample return mission to bring back Perseverance’s core samples.
  • $180 million to begin development of “a space tug” that can de-orbit ISS as well as “be useful for other space transportation missions.”
  • $1.39 billion for developing new space technologies, an increase of $190 million.

The last two items will likely be money offered to many new commercial startups.

Though we can expect some resistance by the Republican House to most of the budget increases in the overall Biden budget proposal, expect Congress to rubber stamp the NASA increases, as it has done routinely in recent years. Congress might shift or reject some of these ideas, but generally, when all is said and done, it will only make superficial changes. NASA will likely more money.

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House subcommittee proposes five bills that would change FCC operations

10:06 am

The House Energy and Commerce subcommittee on March 8, 2023 approved five bills affecting the FCC and how it operates.

The first bill [pdf], Satellite and Telecommunications Streamlining Act, is the most significant, as it appears to try to establish legal limitations and rules specifically designed to address the FCC’s recent effort to expand its power and regulatory authority beyond what its legal authority allows. While most of the bill’s language appears to allow the FCC to do what it wants (including limiting or regulating future space stations and setting lifetime limits on all orbiting spacecraft), it also insists that licenses be approved quickly and adds this caveat:

[T]he Commission may not establish performance objectives that conflict with any standard practice adopted by the Secretary of Commerce.

In other words, the FCC cannot grab the regulatory responsibilities of other agencies, especially the Commerce Department, where Congress in recent years has been trying to shift most commercial regulatory authority.

Nonetheless, this bill appears to mostly endorse the FCC ‘s power grab.

The bills still have to be approved by the full committee, then approved by the full House, then approved by the Senate, and then signed by the president.

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Russia considering bringing Soyuz launched on February 23rd home earlier

9:35 am

According to unnamed sources in the Russian press, Roscosmos officials are considering bringing the Soyuz capsule launched on February 23rd to ISS back to Earth in June rather than September, while moving up the launch of the next Soyuz manned mission.

As noted by space journalist Anatoly Zak:

The existence of such plans indicated that specialists had still been concerned about the possibility of a critical leak in the thermal control system of the fresh crew vehicle similar to those that hit two previous transport ships. Such change in schedule would also debunk the official explanation of previous two accidents by Roskosmos and NASA as caused by meteors rather than production defects.

The two previous coolant leaks occurred about three months after launch. Bringing the Soyuz home in June would get it home in about three and a half months, suggesting the Russians are no longer confident their Soyuz and Progress spacecraft can withstand six months in space.

If this plan is adopted it will also put less strain on the crew slated to come home on that Soyuz. Their mission has been planned for six months. Extending it to a full year without any prior preparation risks serious health issues.

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China’s Long March 4C rocket launches two Earth observation satellites

9:23 am

China today used its Long March 4C rocket to launch two Earth observation satellites from one of its interior spaceports.

No word on whether the expendable first stage landed near habitable areas. In related news the upper stage of a Long March 2D rocket, launched in June 2022, burned up over Texas on March 8, 2023. Such upper stage uncontrolled de-orbits are not unusual, and the effort by this news outlet to make a big deal about it is just politics. Unlike the lower stages of China’s rockets that hit the ground right after launch, it is very unlikely any pieces reached the surface, and any that did were small and posed a small risk.

The 2023 launch race:

16 SpaceX
8 China
3 Russia
1 Rocket Lab
1 Japan
1 India

American private enterprise still leads China 17 to 8 in the national rankings, and the entire world combined 17 to 13. SpaceX alone still leads the entire world, including American companies, 16 to 14.

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SpaceX successfully launches 40 OneWeb satellites

1:19 pm

SpaceX today successfully launched another 40 OneWeb satellites, using its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral.

This was SpaceX’s third launch for OneWeb, helping to replace the Russians who broke its contract with OneWeb after its invasion of the Ukraine. The first stage completed its thirteenth flight, landing safely on a landing pad at Cape Canaveral. As amazing as this record is, it is not a record for the most reflights, which presently stands at fifteen. The fairings completed their sixth flight.

As of posting not all of OneWeb’s satellites have been deployed.

The 2023 launch race:

16 SpaceX
7 China
3 Russia
1 Rocket Lab
1 Japan
1 India

American private enterprise now leads China 17 to 7 in the national rankings, and the entire world combined 17 to 12. SpaceX alone leads the entire world combined, including American companies, 16 to 13.

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Ice volcano in the Martian high northern latitudes?

1:03 pm

Ice volcano on Mars
Click for original image.

That the Martian surface becomes increasingly icy as one approaches its poles is becoming increasingly evident from orbital images. Today’s cool image provides us another data point.

The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, reduced, and enhanced to post here, was taken on January 4, 2023 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). It is once again another terrain sample image, taken not as part of any particular research project but to fill a gap in the camera’s schedule so as to maintain its temperature. With such pictures, it is hard to predict what will be seen, though the scientists try to find interesting things. In this case the camera team succeeded quite nicely, capturing what appears to me to be a small volcano with two calderas.

This volcano however has almost certainly not spouted lava but mud and water.
» Read more

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Another orbital tug & servicing company raises investment capital

9:29 am

Starfish Space, a new entrant into the orbital tug & servicing industry, has successfully raised $14 million in new investment capital, in addition to the $7 million it had raised in a previous fund-raising round.

The company hopes to launch a test satellite later this year, dubbed Otter Pup, which will undock from the orbital tub of another company, Launcher Space, do maneuvers, and then redock.

Starfish’s plan calls for Otter Pup to be sent into orbit this summer as a rideshare payload on SpaceX’s Transporter-8 mission. The spacecraft will be deployed from Launcher Space’s Orbiter space tug, and then will execute a series of maneuvers with a xenon-fueled electric propulsion system to move away from the tug.

If all goes well, the Otter Pup will return to the vicinity of the Orbiter, and then use an electrostatic-based capture mechanism to latch onto a docking target on the space tug. It could take months to test out the Otter Pup’s systems and tweak them as necessary for its test hookups.

Though the company says it will offer tug services once operational, it appears it is mostly aiming for the satellite robotic servicing market. It, like Astroscale, has developed its own docking capture device, which it will try to convince satellite companies to attach to their satellites. It will then use this to dock and service those satellites. Since these capture devices are proprietary, the number that each company gets onboard satellites will determine that company’s future sales.

This orbital servicing industry appears to be growing very quickly, now that launch costs have come down by about 90% since the arrival of SpaceX. For example, the orbital tug company Momentus is getting ready to launch its third mission.

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Space Force assigns launchpads to four smallsat rocket startups

9:16 am

The Space Force has assigned launchpad space at Cape Canaveral to four different new smallsat rocket startup companies, ABL Space Systems, Stoke Space, Phantom Space, and Vaya Space, none of which have yet launched.

There are currently four active launch complexes on the Eastern Range; Launch Complex 37 for ULA Delta rockets; Launch Complex 40 for SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets; Launch Complex 41 for ULA Atlas rockets; and Launch Complex 39A, which is owned by NASA.

ABL Space Systems, which has the RS1 rocket, has been allocated property at Space Launch Complex 15. ABL’s first orbital attempt in January failed. Stoke Space was allocated property at SLC 14. The launcher is based in Washington state and working to develop a fully reusable rocket. And Phantom Space and Vaya Space were allocated space at SLC 13. Phantom Space is developing the Daytona Launch System and executed a successful hot fire test in November.

This article provides a nice overview of the four companies, of which Vaya is the newest entrant into the smallsat rocket industry.

Space Force officials have made it clear they want to maximize use of their facility at the Cape, while helping to energize this private commercial market.

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ISS maneuvers to avoid satellite

9:02 am

Though a collision was unlikely, Russian engineers fired the engines of a docked Progress freighter on March 6, 2023 to adjust ISS’s orbits in order to guaranteethat an Earth-observation satellite would fly past harmlessly.

At approximately 7:42 a.m. (12:42 GMT), thrusters on the Progress 83 resupply vessel currently docked with the International Space Station (ISS) fired for a little more than six minutes, raising the station’s orbit to prevent the potential collision, NASA said in a blog post (opens in new tab).

The satellite in question appears to have been an Argentinian Earth-observation satellite launched in 2020, according to Sandra Jones, from NASA’s Johnson Space Center. In a tweet, Dr. Jonathan McDowell, astronomer and astrophysicist at the Harvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, narrowed the possible candidates down to Nusat-17, noting the constellation’s orbital decay.

The article at the link includes a nice graph showing the number of times per year engineers have had to do this since 1999. The number of such maneuvers ranges from 0 to 5 per year, with no clear trend up or down. That lack of a trend suggests the constant howls claiming that space junk is a growing problem might be a bit overstated. This is not to say it isn’t a problem, merely that the problem might not be as severe as some claim.

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Relativity scrubs launch attempt today

1:26 pm

After several countdown recycles Relativity’s launch team finally decided to scrub today’s first launch of its 3D-printed Terran-1 rocket.

At one point the countdown got to T-1:10, but was aborted at that point because the temperatures in the oxygen tank were not within acceptable values.

The launch window was three hours long, and it appeared they simply ran out of time. As of posting more details have not yet been released. The link above goes to the live stream.

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Cracks in Martian lava

11:35 am

Cracks in Martian lava
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, and reduced to post here, was taken on January 25, 2023 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). It was taken not as part of any specific research project, but to fill a gap in MRO’s picture-taking schedule in order to maintain the camera’s temperature. When such pictures need to be taken, the camera team tries to find something of interest in the area to be shot. Sometimes the picture is boring. Sometimes fascinating. Today’s picture I think falls into the latter category.

This is a lava flood plain, as shown in the overview map below. The meandering ridges are likely what geologists call lava dikes, places where lava was extruded out through a fissure. This suggests that the flat flood lava was an older crust, and that there was hot molten lava below it that eventually pushed its way up through cracks in that crust.

This hypothesis however is not certain, as the meandering nature of the ridges does not correspond well with what one would expect from such crustal cracks.
» Read more

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Webb finds another galaxy in early universe that should not exist

9:24 am

The uncertainty of science: Scientists using the Webb Space Telescope have identified another galaxy about 12 billion light years away and only about 1.7 billion years after the theorized Big Bang that is too rich in chemicals as well as too active in star formation to have had time to form.

SPT0418-SE is believed to have already hosted multiple generations of stars, despite its young age. Both of the galaxies have a mature metallicity — or large amounts of elements like carbon, oxygen and nitrogen that are heavier than hydrogen and helium — which is similar to the sun. However, our sun is 4.5 billion years old and inherited most of its metals from previous generations of stars that were eight billion years old, the researchers said.

In other words, this galaxy somehow obtained complex elements in only 1.7 billion years that in our galaxy took twelve billion years, something that defies all theories of galactic and stellar evolution. Either the Big Bang did not happen when it did, or all theories about the growth and development of galaxies are wrong.

One could reasonably argue that this particular observation might be mistaken, except that it is not the only one from Webb that shows similar data. Webb’s infrared data is challenging the fundamentals of all cosmology, developed by theorists over the past half century.

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ISRO successfully de-orbits defunct satellite

9:09 am

Last orbit of MT1

ISRO announced today that it successfully de-orbited the defunct Earth observation MT1 satellite on March 7, 2023, bringing it down over the Pacific Ocean.

The map to the right shows the timing of the last two de-orbit burns during the satellite’s last orbit.

MT1’s orbit was high enough so that it would have remained in space for about 100 more years, with a lot of fuel that might have caused an explosion and the release of many pieces of space junk. ISRO managers decided to allocate the funds to use that fuel to de-orbit it, as a test for making this a routine part of any satellite end-of-mission.

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Post-Artemis-1 report: heat shield ablated more than expected; power system issued unexpected commands; damage to launchpad

8:56 am

In a March 7, 2023 briefing, NASA officials provided an overall report of what happened during the first SLS launch, noting that there were some minor engineering issues but none that appeared to them significant.

The biggest issue of note was the Orion heat shield.

Howard Hu, Orion program manager at NASA, said that material on the heat shield had ablated differently than what engineers expected from ground tests and computer models. “We had more liberation of the charred material during reentry than we had expected,” he said. Engineers are just beginning detailed analysis of the heat shield to determine why it behaved differently than expected.

The amount ablated was well within safety margins, but engineers still do not understand why the material behaved differently than expected.

Engineers are also trying to understand why the power system of the Orion service module issued unplanned commands, several times opening what officials called a “latching current limiter.” This action caused no problems to the capsule’s operations, but it is concerning it occurred.

The launch also did more damage to the mobile launcher tower than expected.

According to NASA officials, none of these issues will delay the planned November 2024 launch date for the Artemis-2 mission, the first intended to carry humans.

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Watching the first launch attempt of Relativity’s Terran-1 rocket

4:10 am

I have embedded below the live stream of the first launch attempt by the rocket startup Relativity today of its 3D-printed Terran-1 smallsat rocket, with a launch window of three hours beginning at 1 pm (Eastern). The live stream begins about an hour before launch.

The first launch of a new rocket is exceedingly challenging, and almost never succeeds. The key however is the data obtained that can be used to make the next launch attempt a success.

A lot rides on this launch. Relativity already has obtained $1.2 billion in launch contracts plus more than $1 billion in private investment capital, despite having never launched anything. Moreover, the Terran-1 rocket is really a prototype for its larger Terran-R rocket, which is intended to compete directly for the larger payloads that companies like SpaceX and ULA launch.
» Read more

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Flat-topped mesas in the icy northern lowland plains of Mars

1:52 pm

Flat-topped Martian craters
Click for full image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped and rotated to post here, was taken on December 27, 2022 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO), and shows what the scientists have labeled “flat topped hills in Utopia Planitia.”

Utopia Planitia is the largest impact basin on Mars, approximately 2,100 miles across and located in the northern lowland plains.

Orbital evidence strongly suggests it is a region with a lot of near surface ice. The picture to the right reinforces that conclusion, as the entire flat plain surrounding these buttes appears like an ice field. Moreover, the full image shows many craters filled with glacial features, most of which also have softened features, as if with time the ice that impregnates their material has sublimated away.
» Read more

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Fuel spill cleanup begins at Space Force telescope facility in Maui, Hawaii

9:52 am

The cleanup of the diesel fuel spill that occurred on January 29, 2023 at Space Force telescope facility on the top of the dormant volcano Haleakala on the island of Maui in Hawaii began last week.

Samples of the soil will be sent for testing to determine that it has been excavated to a depth that captures all the diesel fuel, the Air Force said. All the soil from those test samples, as well as the mass of earth removed, will be stored, cleaned and returned to the ground, according to the approved plan.

Hawaiians regard Haleakala’s summit as sacred and that no soil or stones should be removed from the site.

The facility is used by the U.S. military to track orbiting objects, from satellites to space junk.

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UK awards $1.9 million in development grants to universities and private companies

9:44 am

The space agency of the United Kingdom today announced the award of nearly $1.9 million in grants to six universities and two private companies to do a variety of space engineering research.

The stated goal of the grants is to encourage the growth of a private space sector in the UK, as stated by one official in the press release:

Today’s funding is part of the government’s strategy to use our £5 billion investment in space science and technology to grow our £16.5 billion commercial space sector to create the businesses, jobs and opportunities of tomorrow, and the space clusters from Cornwall to Scotland.

The university research from these grants will thus hopefully produce viable products that the researchers can then use to establish private space companies.

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South Korea commits $38 million to support space startups

9:33 am

The South Korean government has now established a space investment fund committed to raising $38 million to support startups in its nascent private space industry.

It will be interesting to see which management companies are selected to operate the fund and how the investment process will work. This initiative can potentially create exciting new opportunities for startups, entrepreneurs, researchers, and other stakeholders in the space industry and position South Korea as a leader in this field.

…The Korean Ministry of Science and ICT plans to invest 5 billion won [$3.8 million] this year to create a fundraising fund. The goal of creating a total fund of more than 50 billion won [$38 million] by 2027 is ambitious and demonstrates the government’s commitment to promoting private investment in the space industry.

It is very unclear what this project entails. Will the government budget the investment capital, or is it establishing a private venture capital investment firm that will in turn seek out the money from the private sector?

Either way, it appears the South Korean government wants to encourage the growth in a private commercial space industry.

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Curiosity’s most recent cloud campaign

9:21 am

A cloud on Mars
Click for original image.

On January 30, 2023 I posted the picture to the right, taken by the high resolution camera on the Mars rover Curiosity. The picture was part of their ongoing cloud survey, running from January to March ’23 and using the rover’s hi-res camera to look for clouds during twilight. Today the rover science team issued a press release describing some of the results of that campaign. For example, on February 2nd the rover captured a sunset with sun rays, sunlight illuminating the bottom of clouds after the Sun has set. The release also provided this explanation for the cloud on the right.

In addition to the image of sun rays, Curiosity captured a set of colorful clouds shaped like a feather on Jan. 27. When illuminated by sunlight, certain types of clouds can create a rainbowlike display called iridescence. “Where we see iridescence, it means a cloud’s particle sizes are identical to their neighbors in each part of the cloud,” said Mark Lemmon, an atmospheric scientist with the Space Science Institute in Boulder, Colorado. “By looking at color transitions, we’re seeing particle size changing across the cloud. That tells us about the way the cloud is evolving and how its particles are changing size over time.”

In the case of Mars, the clouds are not made of liquid water droplets like on Earth, but ice particles, sometimes water and sometimes dry ice.

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Newly discovered comet could be brightest object in sky in October ’24

9:02 am

Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS, discovered simultanuously by telescopes in China and South Africa, has the possibility of becoming brightest object in sky when it makes its closest approach to the Earth in October 2024.

As viewed from Earth, the comet may be as luminous as the brightest stars in the sky during its upcoming flyby, according to EarthSky. This is brighter than the green comet C/2022 E3 that just passed by Earth in January. That comet had a brightness of around magnitude +4.6, just visible to the naked eye. The new comet may have a brightness of magnitude 0.7, potentially peaking at magnitude -5, similar to Venus at its brightest.

The comet is presently between Jupiter and Saturn. Its 80,000 year long orbit will make its next close approach to the Sun on September 28, 2024.

Whether this will become a naked eye object of beauty of course remains totally uncertain. Its orbit, which appears stable but with rare swings past the Sun, suggests it will have lots of ice to sublimate into a bright tail. This also suggests the comet will survive this close approach without breaking up, since it has likely done this frequently in the past.

At the same time, the brightness of comets is unpredictable. We won’t really know how bright it will become until it is on it approach to the Sun, in the early fall of 2024.

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Japan’s new H3 rocket’s second stage fails during first launch

7:10 pm

Japan’s new H3 rocket failed today on its first launch when something went wrong at second stage ignition, after separation from first stage.

Once controllers realized the rocket would not reach orbit, they initiated a self-destruct sequence, ending the mission.

This is very bad news for Japan’s space effort. Right now it does not have a viable competitive commercial rocket industry. All rocket construction is supervised and controlled by its space agency JAXA, which almost exclusively uses Mitsubishi to build what it wants. With the H3 failing (built by Mitsubishi) and the H2A and H2B (both also built by Mitsubishi) slated for retirement, JAXA does not have a rocket it can use for future missions.

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