June 27, 2021 Zimmerman/Pratt on Texas podcast on blacklisting

In addition to the short segment I did on Friday about commercial space exploration for Robert Pratt, I also recorded a 40 minute interview with him discussing the horrible wave of blacklisting and intolerance that is sweeping across America.

That second podcast is now available here. While much of it is a review of my daily column, “Today’s blacklisted American,” Robert and I expanded on the subject. You especially want to hear what I demand we do to stop this intolerance. It is for example not banning critical race theory from schools, a common tactic now being pushed by the generally ineffectual Republican Party in many states.

China releases more images & videos from Zhurong

Zhurong panorama looking north, June 27, 2021
Click for full image.

Overview map
Click for full image.

China today released a new panorama as well as several videos taken by its Mars rover Zhurong.

The videos show the rover’s landing as well as two short videos taken from the remote camera it had dropped off shortly after deployment from its lander, the first showing the rover moving away and the second showing it turning in place.. China also released sound recorded during that deployment, as the rover rolled down the ramps. The sound was of course enhanced, but it does allow scientists to learn something about the atmosphere of Mars.

The image above is a cropped section from the panorama. The map to the right, taken on June 11th by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO), has been annotated by me to show the area I think is seen by this section of that panorama, looking due north. (For a higher resolution version that clearly shows the rover’s tracks since leaving the lander, go here.)

Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

 

The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

Conscious Choice cover

Now available in hardback and paperback as well as ebook!

 

From the press release: In this ground-breaking new history of early America, historian Robert Zimmerman not only exposes the lie behind The New York Times 1619 Project that falsely claims slavery is central to the history of the United States, he also provides profound lessons about the nature of human societies, lessons important for Americans today as well as for all future settlers on Mars and elsewhere in space.

 
Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space, is a riveting page-turning story that documents how slavery slowly became pervasive in the southern British colonies of North America, colonies founded by a people and culture that not only did not allow slavery but in every way were hostile to the practice.  
Conscious Choice does more however. In telling the tragic history of the Virginia colony and the rise of slavery there, Zimmerman lays out the proper path for creating healthy societies in places like the Moon and Mars.

 

“Zimmerman’s ground-breaking history provides every future generation the basic framework for establishing new societies on other worlds. We would be wise to heed what he says.” —Robert Zubrin, founder of the Mars Society.

 

All editions are available at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and all book vendors, with the ebook priced at $5.99 before discount. All editions can also be purchased direct from the ebook publisher, ebookit, in which case you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.

 

Autographed printed copies are also available at discount directly from the author (hardback $29.95; paperback $14.95; Shipping cost for either: $6.00). Just send an email to zimmerman @ nasw dot org.

Hubble update: Still no solution

An update today from the engineers trouble-shooting the problem on the Hubble Space Telescope that put it into safe mode on June 13 continue to show the problem is complex, and has not yet been traced to its source.

Additional tests performed on June 23 and 24 included turning on the backup computer for the first time in space. The tests showed that numerous combinations of [a number of] hardware pieces from both the primary and backup payload computer all experienced the same error – commands to write into or read from memory were not successful.

Since it is highly unlikely that all individual hardware elements have a problem, the team is now looking at other hardware as the possible culprit, including the Command Unit/Science Data Formatter (CU/SDF), another module on the SI C&DH [the module that holds the telescope’s computers]. The CU formats and sends commands and data to specific destinations, including the science instruments. The SDF formats the science data from the science instruments for transmission to the ground. The team is also looking at the power regulator to see if possibly the voltages being supplied to hardware are not what they should be. A power regulator ensures a steady constant voltage supply. If the voltage is out of limits, it could cause the problems observed.

They remain hopeful they can find the problem and fix it, though the longer it takes the more worrisome it becomes.

Leaving Earth cover

Leaving Earth: Space Stations, Rival Superpowers, and the Quest for Interplanetary Travel, can be purchased as an ebook everywhere for only $3.99 (before discount) at amazon, Barnes & Noble, all ebook vendors, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit.

 

If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big oppressive tech companies and I get a bigger cut much sooner.

 

Winner of the 2003 Eugene M. Emme Award of the American Astronautical Society.

 
"Leaving Earth is one of the best and certainly the most comprehensive summary of our drive into space that I have ever read. It will be invaluable to future scholars because it will tell them how the next chapter of human history opened." -- Arthur C. Clarke

Many of Mars’ geological mysteries, all in one photo

Knobs, streaks, and lava channels on Mars
Click for full image.

Today’s cool image is fun because it contains a plethora of Martian mysteries, all packed into a very small space. The photo to the right was taken on April 29, 2021 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). I have rotated, cropped, and reduced it to post here.

The uncaptioned picture was labeled “Small Channel Winding between Knobs in Tartarus Colles.” The knobs, which can be seen on either side of the thin channel within the canyon, are actually a major Martian puzzle. Tartarus Colles has a lot of them, and planetary geologists are not really sure how they formed. One 2009 paper [pdf] suggested that the cones were formed by the violent interaction of lava and ice. This earlier paper [pdf] hypothesized that both water and lava had to be flowing over the surface at the same time, producing the steam and the energy that popped the lava cones, kind of like the small convection bubbles seen when tomato sauce simmers.

The scientific literature however is not deep, and there appears to be much uncertainty about this conclusion.

The photo however contains other major Martian puzzles.
» Read more

Today’s blacklisted American: Attendees at conservative event attacked by Antifa thugs

Antifa leaflet in Denver, June 2021
Click for original.

They’re coming for you next: Attendees attempting to go to the Western Conservatives Conference in Denver, Colorado last week were routinely harassed and attacked by leftist thugs.

The streets of Denver saw violence Friday as Antifa and Denver Communists attempted to shut down traffic and proceeded to assault individuals outside of the Western Conservative Conference. One woman was seen getting out of her car to confront Antifa who threw projectiles at her vehicle and was subsequently threatened with a mob-style beatdown if she proceeded.

Another onlooker offered to help the one woman find the culprit who damaged her car, to which someone in the crowd yells: “If you touch one, you’re gonna get touched by every last one of these mother-—s!” The crowd implied that she was at risk for a brutal beating if she proceeded.

More details here.
» Read more

Astronomers discover “comet” bigger than the largest comets approaching inner solar system

Astronomers have discovered an object 80 to 100 miles in diameter, larger than the largest comets, approaching the inner solar system and coming from the theorized Oort Cloud of material thought to exist between a tenth and a third of a light year from the Sun.

The object is probably rich in ice like a comet and is currently around three billion kilometres from the Sun. It will reach its closest point, known as perihelion, in 2031. At that time, it will be positioned below the plane of the solar system, near the orbit of Saturn.

Part of the interest in C/2014 UN271 is that it may be something of a transition object. Astronomers believe that many of the long period comets, that occasionally appear with bright tails, actually come from the Oort Cloud. Stars wandering near the Sun can nudge these objects from their positions and over millennia they work their way inwards, with the gravity of the giant planets tweaking their paths on each visit until they reside where we see them today.

“The fact that [C/2014 UN271] has a perihelion so far away from the Sun might be telling us that it’s done this a couple of times but is still in that process of eventually becoming some of those long period comets we know and love,” explains Meg Schwamb a Kuiper Belt and Oort Cloud expert at Queen’s University Belfast.

Initially astronomers thought because of its size that it was not a comet, but new observations have detected the first signs of a coma, suggesting that it will provide us a very interesting and extended show when it reaches its closest point in 2031. Because that perihelion is around the orbit of Saturn, the object will not be traveling very fast, so its passage through the inner solar system will take several years. Its size also suggests it will have a lot of material that can sublimate off to produce a tail.

The object was discovered by two astronomers, Gary Bernstein and Pedro Bernardinelli. If it turns out to be a comet it will then be named Comet Bernardinelli-Bernstein, or Comet B-B for short.

UPDATE: It is official. The object is now officially a comet, and named Comet Bernardinelli-Bernstein.

FAA approves commercial launch license for Virgin Galactic

Capitalism in space: FAA today approved Virgin Galactic’s commercial launch license, allowing it to fly commercial paying tourists on its suborbital spacecraft, VSS Unity.

When Virgin Galactic will begin doing so remains uncertain. There have been rumors that the company is thinking of quickly scheduling a flight carrying Richard Branson for July 4th, thus beating Jeff Bezos’s planned July 20th into space. However, the company has denied this, referring back to its announced schedule.

Virgin Galactic has previously set out a schedule for this year, as it continues to mold the kind of service it plans to offer its commercial customers. This would see four of the company’s employees climb aboard Unity (along with the two pilots) for the next flight, to get a sense of the experience that future ticketed passengers will enjoy.

The flight after that is likely to see Sir Richard himself go to the edge of space, as a statement of readiness for commercial service.

And it’s then on the subsequent outing that the company is expected to start earning revenue from carrying people – although this is a mission that has been block booked by the Italian Air Force, which is going to put several payload specialists aboard Unity to supervise a number of microgravity experiments.

Regardless of when Branson’s first flight will be, that first commercial flight will come about fourteen years after the date Branson first predicted for such a flight. In 2004 he predicted he would fly by 2007 after hundreds of test flights, followed then by more hundreds of commercial flights each year. None of that ever happened, nor does it look like the flight numbers will ever approach his prediction.

Today’s blacklisted American: Christian nonprofit denied tax exempt status by IRS because such teachings are “partisan Republican”

Moses: A Republican Party lobbyist, according to the IRS
Moses: A Republican Party lobbyist, according to the IRS.

Blacklists are back and the IRS has got ’em! The IRS has denied a Christian nonprofit tax exempt status because it has deemed such “Bible teachings are typically affiliated with the [Republican Party]” and are therefore partisan.

From the IRS denial letter:

“Specifically, you educate Christians on what the Bible says in areas where they can be instrumental including the areas of sanctity of life, the definition of marriage, biblical justice, freedom of speech, defense, and borders and immigration, U.S. and Israel relations,” read a letter from IRS Exempt Organizations Director Stephen Martin to Christians Engaged, a nonprofit group seeking tax-exempt status. “The Bible teachings are typically affiliated with the [Republican Party] and candidates. This disqualifies you from exemption under IRC Section 501(c)(3).”

Heh. Well, at least the IRS has now admitted the satanic nature of the Democratic Party. According to this IRS official, only the Republican Party supports such biblical teachings as the ten commandments. The Democratic Party is opposed to this, which makes being Christian or Jewish a partisan political position.

Of course, the IRS itself is very partisan, as the article at the link notes:
» Read more

Curiosity’s mountainous view

Curiosity's view uphill on June 23, 2021
Click for full resolution panorama. Note: Navarro Mt is about 450 feet high.

The travels of Curiosity at the base of Mount Sharp continue. In the past week, since my last update on June 16th, the rover has moved west past the entrance to Gediz Vallis to now sit at the base of Raphael Navarro Mountain, as shown by the panorama above. To get a sense of how far the rover has traveled in the past week, compare this panorama with the one posted then. It is also clear now that they are slowly returning to their planned route, and will not push up into Gediz Vallis as I speculated in that post.

The panorama is created from three photos taken by Curiosity’s navigation camera, found here, here, and here.

The map below the fold gives the context.
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Chinese official outlines that country’s Mars exploration plan

The new colonial movement: According to an official from China’s prime rocket manufacturer, China is now beginning to plan for the manned exploration of Mars.

Wang Xiaojun, head of the state-owned China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT), outlined the plans in his speech themed “The Space Transportation System of Human Mars Exploration” at the Global Space Exploration Conference (GLEX 2021) via a virtual link, the academy told the Global Times on Wednesday.

After reviewing the successful mission of the Tianwen-1 probe mission, the country’s first interplanetary exploration that achieved a successful orbiting, landing and roving the Red Planet all in one go, Wang introduced the three-step plan for future Mars expedition.

At the primary stage, or the technology preparation phase, androids will be launched whose mission include a Mars sample return mission and the exploration of a Mars base site. Next will be a manned Mars mission, and the building of a Mars base will be carried out. The third stage will be attempting shuttling large scale Earth-Mars cargo fleet and large scale development of the Red Planet.

The timetable for such mission launches will be 2033, 2035, 2037, 2041 and 2043, among others, the academy said.

While this is very far in the future, you can’t make it happen if you don’t get started early. China’s government is clearly looking at getting started, and appears to be following the same timetable approach it did for its space station. They began planning it about a decade ago, and are now launching and assembling it.

China’s decision to aim for Mars proves that the competition to get there is heating up considerably, and is likely their response to Elon Musk’s determined effort to make it possible.

Balloon company begins selling tickets for high-altitude flights

Capitalism in space: The Florida-based balloon company Space Perspectives has announced that it is now selling tickets for high-altitude flights on its Neptune balloon vehicle, beginning in ’24.

From the company’s press release:

Introducing a new era in luxury travel experiences: Space Perspective reimagines the thrill of space exploration with the world’s most radically gentle voyage to space. Space Explorers and travel adventurers looking to upgrade their bucket list can now savor 360-degree views of planet Earth from 20 mi/30 km above in a luxurious six hour trip, inside Spaceship Neptune, propelled by a state-of-the-art spaceballoon the size of a football stadium. Up to eight guests can have the sensational experience from the comfort of plush, reclining seats in a beautifully appointed capsule, complete with a bar and a bathroom, for $125,000 each.

To secure your seat you need to send them a $1,000 deposit. The entire flight will take about six hours, with about two at the highest elevation.

2,000 nearby stars found that see the Earth cross in front of the Sun

Astronomers have identified 2,134 nearby stars that at some point in the past, present, or future are properly positioned along the solar system’s ecliptic so that the Earth can be seen transiting in front of the Sun.

From their paper’s abstract:

[W]e report that 1,715 stars within 100 parsecs from the Sun are in the right position to have spotted life on a transiting Earth since early human civilization (about 5,000 years ago), with an additional 319 stars entering this special vantage point in the next 5,000 years. Among these stars are seven known exoplanet hosts, including Ross-128, which saw Earth transit the Sun in the past, and Teegarden’s Star and Trappist-1, which will start to see it in 29 and 1,642 years, respectively. We found that human-made radio waves have already swept over 75 of the closest stars on our list. [emphasis mine]

I like the detail highlighted. Of the stars that could definitely identify the Earth by transits, 75 are also now close enough to have also heard our radio broadcasts. Should any of those stars also have a sufficiently advanced alien civilization, they could know of our existence. These same stars in turn make for very good targets of study for us to see if there is alien life there.

ULA to temporarily stop using new engine nozzle because of vibration issue

Capitalism in space: Because of an unexpected vibration issue seen during its first launches, ULA engineers have decided to temporarily stop using a new engine nozzle developed for the upper stage of both its Atlas 5 and new Vulcan rocket.

ULA’s CEO Tory Bruno said June 23 that the company is studying the data from the flight and has not yet decided what corrective action, if any, it might take. In the meantime, the new version of the RL10 [engine] with the carbon nozzle extension will not be used in upcoming Atlas 5 missions, Bruno said during a talk at the Secure World Foundation’s Summit for Space Sustainability.

Concerns about vibrations in the engine led ULA to delay the launch of the Space Force STP-3 mission that had been scheduled for June 23 and was planned to fly with the enhanced RL10. The company has not announced a new launch date for STP-3. ULA first plans to launch Boeing’s Starliner Orbital Flight Test 2 mission to the International Space Station scheduled for July 30. “It’ll be several missions, probably next year” before ULA decides whether to fly the RL10 configuration with the nozzle extension, said Bruno. The company wants to be “fully satisfied that we understand it.”

Below the fold is the live stream from that May launch, cued to show that vibration. It is their intention to go back to the older nozzle configuration for the next few launches.
» Read more

Study proposes new radiation standards in space

Health limits of radiation for space missions

A new report issued today from the National Academies of Science is recommending that NASA adopt a new health standard for limiting the exposure of astronauts to radiation during long space missions. The new standard, based on a maximum accumulative dosage of 600, is indicated by the figure to the right, taken from the report [pdf] and annotated to show both the new recommendation as well as the standards used by other space-faring nations.

The key result of this change is expressed in the report in this one sentence:
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Today’s blacklisted American: Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and Blue Origin

Jeff Bezos, sentenced to death!
Jeff Bezos: The next target in America’s daily two-minute hate.

They’re coming for you next: As a clear indication of the ugliness of modern society and the eager willingness of far too many Americans to hurt or even kill those they disagree with or do not like, two different petitions have now garnered more than 175,000 signatures demanding that Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon and Blue Origin, be forced to die in space rather than safely return home during his planned July 20th suborbital commercial flight on his New Shepard spacecraft.

The two petitions can be seen here and here. Both have received a lot of media attention, such as these articles in the Guardiane, MSN, and the New York Post, all of which immediately caused the numbers of people signing the petitions to skyrocket. Both petitions are now “one of the top signed on Change.org!”
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Ingenuity completes 8th flight, moving south with Perseverance

Perservance's location, June 17, 2021
Click for interactive map.

On June 21, 2021 the Mars helicopter Ingenuity successfully completed its eighth flight, leapfrogging south past the rover Perseverance.

During the flight, Ingenuity remained aloft for 77.4 seconds, flew 525 feet (160 meters), and landed about 440 feet (133.5 m) away from its companion, the Perseverance rover, according to a tweet from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, which operates the helicopter.

The map to the right, annotated by me from the interactive map provided by the Perseverance team, shows the helicopter’s approximate new position, labeled #8 in green. The other green numbers show its previous landing spots after earlier flights.

The white line shows Perseverance’s travels through June 17th. The yellow dashed line shows their planned route over the next few months. Perseverance was just slightly north of Ingenuity on that date. It has likely traveled further south since then.

A detailed look at Russia’s suffering and shrinking space program

Link here. The article starts off outlining Russia’s deepening inability to produce the computer chips it needs for its space effort, acerbated by sanctions imposed against that country because of its invasion of the Ukraine. It then goes on to describe the program’s overall financial problems, including its shrinking commercial market share resulting in a significant drop in income.

The article’s conclusion is stark:

If Moscow is unable to reach a new space deal with Washington, it will need to reconsider its space policy. But Russia has little wiggle room to increase federal spending on space activities to boost the industry. For instance, the government’s space program for 2016–2025 received $11.1 billion in 2016–2020 and will obtain another $10.2 billion in 2021–2025. The federal program for launch sites (2017–2025) secured $1.4 billion in 2017–2020 and will take in a further $2.83 billion in 2021–2025 (Economy.gov.ru, 2016–2021). The 2012–2020 GLONASS program received almost $5.1 billion, and $6.45 billion more is planned for the GLONASS program in 2021–2030 (RBC, December 21, 2020). Thus, without an international cooperation deal, and as long as Western sanctions are maintained, prospects for Russia’s space industry look bleak.

Russia has recently been working to establish a partnership with China and its effort to build a space station and a lunar base. That partnership however is not likely to provide Russia with any cash, which means the deal is an empty one. While China will continue to proceed to the Moon, I doubt Russia will follow with much.

It has also been trying to rework its American partnership, with Rogozin acting alternatively as a good guy/bad guy in public declarations. Since Russia opposes the Artemis Accords, and the Biden administration is continuing the Trump administration’s demand that all partners in the Artemis program agree to these accords, those negotiations are not likely to get Russia much. Moreover, NASA policy today is to feed money to American private companies so that they can grow, not feed money to Russia so that it can prosper.

Until Russia starts allowing free competition and private enterprise, outside the control of Roscosmos and the government, do not expect much of this Russian bad news to change. While China might strictly supervise the goals of its private space companies, it still encourages them to compete and innovate, and even fail. Russia not only strictly supervises, it also forbids any new startups from forming, as they might do harm to already established players. The result is no new innovation, and no new products of any real value.

Zhurong’s travels during first three weeks on Mars

Zhurong's travels through June 11th
Click for full image.

The science team for the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) today released a new image showing the path that China’s rover , Zhurong, has taken from its landing on May 14th through June 11th.

The photo to the right, cropped and reduced to post here, is that photo. If you look close you can see the rover’s track skirting the edge of the bright blast mark put on the surface by the lander’s engines during touchdown. Though my scale bar is approximate, it does show that in those four weeks the rover traveled about 150 to 200 feet. However, half of that distance was crossed in the five days from June 6th to June 11th (as shown by the two different MRO images at these links), which means the pace is picking up.

The rover’s nominal three-month mission ends in mid-August, only two months from now. However, none of us should be surprised if the mission gets extended for as long as the rover continues to function.

Update on attempts to bring Hubble back to life

Engineers have released an update on their attempts to bring Hubble out of safe mode that are indicating that they are honing in on the cause of the problem.

After performing tests on several of the computer’s memory modules, the results indicate that a different piece of computer hardware may have caused the problem, with the memory errors being only a symptom. The operations team is investigating whether the Standard Interface (STINT) hardware, which bridges communications between the computer’s Central Processing Module (CPM) and other components, or the CPM itself is responsible for the issue. The team is currently designing tests that will be run in the next few days to attempt to further isolate the problem and identify a potential solution.

This step is important for determining what hardware is still working properly for future reference. If the problem with the payload computer can’t be fixed, the operations team will be prepared to switch to the STINT and CPM hardware onboard the backup payload computer. The team has conducted ground tests and operations procedure reviews to verify all the commanding required to perform that switch on the spacecraft.

It appears that no matter what solution they arrive at, they will still require several days to test the solution to make sure it works. This update however is very hopeful, as it does appear they are locating the cause and have avenues for fixing it.

Hubble went into safe mode on June 13, which means it has now been out of operation for more than ten days.

A sample of typical but strange Martian northern lowland plain geology

Typical lowland features on Mars
Click for full image.

Cool image time! The photo to the right, rotated, cropped and reduced to post here, was taken on April 18, 2021 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). It shows a nice sample of the typical glacial-filled craters found often in the mid-latitudes between 30 to 60 degree latitudes, surrounded by a lot of erosion features representative of these lowland northern plains.

The biggest crater is very symptomatic of what scientists have dubbed concentric crater fill, a feature that they believe reveals that there is buried ice water glaciers here, protected by a thin layer of debris. The apron of brighter material surrounding the crater could be a splash feature created during impact and now more obvious because it has been revealed as sublimation and erosion lowered the terrain nearby.

The location is north of the Cydonia region in Acidalia Planitia, several thousand miles to the northeast of the region where Viking 1 landed in 1976 and Mars Pathfinder landed in 1997, as shown in the overview map below.
» Read more

Today’s blacklisted American: Eric Clapton, for daring to express his own opinions

1966 in communist China
Mao’s cultural revolution in 1966,
what today’s leftists want for America and the world.

They’re coming for you next: Long time rock-n-roll star Eric Clapton has revealed that he has become ostracized from his liberal, leftist, music culture because he dared to publicly express opposition to last year’s lockdowns as well as publicly expressed reservations about the COVID-19 vaccines.

Legendary guitarist Eric Clapton said his musician friends stopped communicating with him after he recently spoke out about his “disastrous” COVID-19 side effects. “I’ve tried to reach out to fellow musicians,” Clapton said during a video Q&A mostly about his COVID-19 vaccine experience and his reaction to the powers-that-be afterward. “I just don’t hear from them anymore. My phone doesn’t ring very often. I don’t get that many texts and emails any more. It’s quite noticeable.”

Clapton’s aforementioned statements come at the very end of the below video, just before the 24-minute mark — but the whole interview is pretty eye-opening:

According to Vulture.com, Clapton also said, “I was ostracized. And I could feel that everywhere.”

I agree, the whole interview is worth listening to, and so I have embedded it at the bottom of this essay.
» Read more

Ariane 6 inaugural launch date appears to be delayed again

It appears that officials at the European Space Agency (ESA) have begun preparing the public for a further delay in the first launch of its new Ariane 6 rocket, from the second quarter of 2022, as announced in October 2020, to the third quarter of 2022, at the earliest.

Josef Aschbacher, director general of the European Space Agency, at the Paris Air Forum [described the creation of] “a small group” … to make an independent assessment of the schedule for the final development phase of the Ariane 6 rocket. The goal of this task force will be to ensure that Europe does everything it needs to do launch on time.

…In referring to an “on time” launch, Aschbacher said he meant next year, before the European Space Agency’s Ministerial Council meeting that is typically held in October or November. This is a high-level meeting where representatives from each member nation of the space agency gather to set policy. The European Space Agency’s budget is provided, in varying amounts, by member nations. “This is a must,” Aschbacher said of launching before the 2022 meeting, “because we need good news, and good success, for our politicians to see that Europe performs, that Europe delivers, and therefore it is worth investing in space in the ministerial conference.”

It appears from these statements that the development of Ariane 6 is now faced with delays that might make a launch by the third quarter in ’22 difficult, and this new independent committee is being put together to try to forestall that possibility. What makes this even more significant for Ariane 6 is that it continues to have trouble winning contracts from the nations within ESA, as it remains far more expensive that SpaceX’s Falcon 9. If that first launch is delayed past that important fall ’22 high-level meeting, those politicians at that meeting might decide to consider serious new alternatives to it, or even more drastically decide to replace it entirely.

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