Scroll down to read this post.

 

My February birthday fund-raising campaign for this website, Behind the Black, is now over. Despite a relatively weak initial three weeks, the last week was spectacular, making this campaign the second best ever.

 

Thanks to every person who donated or subscribed. It continues to astonish me that people who can read my work for free like it enough to donate money voluntarily. Words cannot express my appreciation for that support, especially in these uncertain times.

 

If you have been a regular reader and a fan of my work and have not yet donated or subscribed, please consider doing so. I take no ads, I keep the website clean from pop-ups and annoying demands (most of the time). Thus, I depend entirely on my readers to support me. Though this means I am sacrificing some income, it also means that I remain entirely independent from outside pressure. By depending solely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, no one can threaten me with censorship. You don't like what I write, you can simply go elsewhere.

 

You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are five ways of doing so:

 

1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.

 

2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
 

3. A Paypal Donation:

4. A Paypal subscription:


5. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
 
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652


More than half of published psychology papers cannot be replicated

The uncertainty of science: An attempt to replicate 98 different psychological research studies has found that significantly less than half could be replicated.

In the biggest project of its kind, Brian Nosek, a social psychologist and head of the Center for Open Science in Charlottesville, Virginia, and 269 co-authors repeated work reported in 98 original papers from three psychology journals, to see if they independently came up with the same results. The studies they took on ranged from whether expressing insecurities perpetuates them to differences in how children and adults respond to fear stimuli, to effective ways to teach arithmetic.

According to the replicators’ qualitative assessments, as previously reported by Nature, only 39 of the 100 replication attempts were successful. … There is no way of knowing whether any individual paper is true or false from this work, says Nosek. Either the original or the replication work could be flawed, or crucial differences between the two might be unappreciated. Overall, however, the project points to widespread publication of work that does not stand up to scrutiny. [emphasis mine]

None of this surprises me. The focus of much science research, especially in the soft sciences like psychology, is statistical in nature and easily manipulated. In fact, most of it isn’t science at all, but an attempt to use mere statistics to prove a point. Science would instead try to find out why something happens, not just demonstrate through statistics that it does.

Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

 
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

3 comments

  • Carl

    The problem isn’t that any of the original works were published, the problem is that too few are replicated soon after publication. When researchers attempt to replicate results of studies and papers published by others, science proceeds in a self-correcting manner. Peer review is not designed to and cannot provide this correction. Only follow on work can provide this correction.

    Unfortunately, journals and research faculty too often view the admittedly less original work of replicating previous work as less worthy of attention. When papers replicating or contradicting results are as likely to be published as the original paper and when the faculty making tenure decisions respect it as much, science will be as self-correcting as it should be.

  • Phill o

    Even in chemistry, this phenomenon appears. The publish or perish syndrome. An overly aggressive professor can often get a paper published through shear intimidation. Having reviewed many papers myself, dealing with pesticide residues, I am familiar with the types of intimidation.

    There are a number of magazines where there is no peer review, notably Science, and Nature, and Scientific American. There are others but the ones listed tend to be believed without question. Even peer reviewed journals have the problem of collective review where buddies are chosen for reviewing. Conferences are the place for the formation of buddies. Consider the astronomical society and the demotion of Pluto. Through shear politics, scientist’s focus has been shifted from science. The study of Plutanoid planets might be an area for novel research, but people are distracted by the demotion issue.

    My question now is how does one educate (or reeducate) people who have been brainwashed into thinking that the university group are truthful. (Hey wait a minute, I was one of those people)

    Seriously think of the ozone scam. Technology was developed to detect the natural variations of ozone in the upper atmosphere. Note that the poles must have a lower ozone concentration due to the lack of ultraviolet light for about 6 months. UV light is needed for the production of ozone in the upper atmosphere. Ozone produced from lightning and welding etc, close to the earth’s surface can not reach the upper atmosphere and is considered a priority pollutant.

    I could go on about other environmental chemistry scams, but let me say that the universities do not deserve unsuspecting respect.

    Remember that some of the most transforming discoveries have been made by folk who thought outside the box, often being squelched by peer review. (Gallaleio, and also the MO theory versus valance bond theory for chemical bonding)

  • hondo

    I Remember the ozone issue. I was doing research for a grad paper back in the early ’90s, when I came across a very old science journal from the mid ’50s. It was an Air Force/science study of the Ozone layer above the Antarctic done at Mc Murdo. An interesting study of a formerly unknown natural phenomena.

    Science, like anything else, can be easily corrupted to suit one’s purposes. I believe we are simply moving thru a period of Lysenko Science.

Readers: the rules for commenting!

 

No registration is required. I welcome all opinions, even those that strongly criticize my commentary.

 

However, name-calling and obscenities will not be tolerated. First time offenders who are new to the site will be warned. Second time offenders or first time offenders who have been here awhile will be suspended for a week. After that, I will ban you. Period.

 

Note also that first time commenters as well as any comment with more than one link will be placed in moderation for my approval. Be patient, I will get to it.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *