NASA clarifies air leak situation yesterday on ISS

8:27 am

Figure 3 from September Inspector General report
Figure 3 from September 2024 Inspector General report, showing Zvezda’s location on ISS, as well as the station’s leak rate at that time.

According to a NASA update posted late yesterday, the agency had cause to order its astronauts to shelter in place within their Dragon capsule due to planned repair work proposed by the Russians.

The week of June 1, during Progress 95 spacecraft cargo operations, Roscosmos noted an increase of the previous leak rate to two pounds per day and identified new suspected leak areas in the PrK. Following this observation, Roscosmos made the decision to begin work toward a more extensive inspection and structural repair effort Friday morning. This revised approach involved cutting a bracket to better access an area identified as a possible leak source for further inspection, using a method that could have resulted in elevated risk to the structure in the area. In response, NASA directed the four SpaceX Crew-12 members and NASA astronaut Chris Williams, who flew to station aboard the Soyuz MS-28 spacecraft, to take a heightened safety posture, known as a safe haven, inside the SpaceX Dragon spacecraft during the procedure.

Later Friday morning, Roscosmos paused and did not perform the structural repair work in favor of conducting additional measurements and data assessments, which included inspection of suspected areas of interest and review of areas where sealant was previously applied. NASA strongly supported that decision, and as a result, following that decision, Crew-12 and Williams ended their safe haven activities and returned to normal operations aboard the orbiting laboratory.

In other words, the leak rate had increased to match the high rates seen from 2019 to 2025, and the Russians were planning work that threatened the structure of the module. It appears NASA objected, and eventually the Russians acceded to those objections.

What happens next however remains unclear. If the leak rate has suddenly jumped from one pound per day to two pounds a day, that suggests the situation is worsening, and doing so at an alarming rate. As this new leak occurred shortly after a Progress freighter docked at Zvezda, it suggested the docking instigated it. It also suggests any further dockings there are likely to worsen the situation even more.

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FCC grants waiver to Amazon Leo constellation, despite its failure to launch on time

8:07 am

Amazon Leo logo

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) yesterday granted [pdf] a license waiver to Amazon, allowing it to continue deploying its Leo constellation even though the company will fail to meet its license requirement to get half its constellation (1,616 satellites) into orbit by July 2026.

While granting the waiver, the FCC also made it clear Amazon still needs to meet the license’s deadline for full deployment of all 3,232 satellites by July 30, 2029.

In the event Amazon Leo fails to satisfy the final milestone on July 30, 2029, this will result in reduction of the total number of Amazon Leo’s authorized satellites to the total number of satellites that are operational on that date.

In other words, the Leo constellation will be truncated if Amazon fails to get the full constellation up on time.

To further encourage Amazon to meet future deadlines, the FCC also stated that the satellites of Amazon’s first-half constellation that are launched late — after the July 2026 deadline — will lose certain spectrum rights for the next 20 months, “or until 50% of the constellation is launched and operational, whichever occurs first.” This order is expressly designed to encourage the company to accelerate its launch pace.

Finally, the FCC declared that Amazon will forfeit its surety bond for not meeting its July 30, 2026 launch obligation.

Launching almost 3,000 satellites in the next three years is still going to be challenging. Right now Amazon is dependent mostly on two grounded and as yet unproven rockets (Vulcan and New Glenn) and a third (Ariane-6) that cannot launch at a very quick pace for at least another two years. And its additional a ten-launch contract with SpaceX won’t be sufficient to get the entire constellation in orbit on time.

In other words, unless Vulcan and New Glenn get fixed quickly and resume launches, Amazon is going to have trouble meeting the FCC’s final deadline.

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Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

Charles Laughton – The Gettysburg Address

6:01 pm

An evening pause: A scene from the 1935 film, Ruggles of Red Gap. In the film he plays a British butler who has been won by a rich western family in a poker game. He comes to America, and is infected by its freedom.

I posted this back in 2011, on the anniversary of Lincoln’s first presentation. Time to play it again, since so many Americans today — like the cowboys in the movie — don’t have a clue what Lincoln said.

Enjoy your weekends!

Hat tip Wayne DeVette.

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Conscious Choice cover

Now available in hardback and paperback as well as ebook!

From the press release: In this ground-breaking new history of early America, historian Robert Zimmerman not only exposes the lie behind The New York Times 1619 Project that falsely claims slavery is central to the history of the United States, he also provides profound lessons about the nature of human societies, lessons important for Americans today as well as for all future settlers on Mars and elsewhere in space.

 
Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space, is a riveting page-turning story that documents how slavery slowly became pervasive in the southern British colonies of North America, colonies founded by a people and culture that not only did not allow slavery but in every way were hostile to the practice.  
Conscious Choice does more however. In telling the tragic history of the Virginia colony and the rise of slavery there, Zimmerman lays out the proper path for creating healthy societies in places like the Moon and Mars.

 

“Zimmerman’s ground-breaking history provides every future generation the basic framework for establishing new societies on other worlds. We would be wise to heed what he says.” —Robert Zubrin, founder of the Mars Society.

 

All editions are available at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and all book vendors, with the ebook priced at $5.99 before discount. All editions can also be purchased direct from the ebook publisher, ebookit, in which case you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.

 

Autographed printed copies are also available at discount directly from the author (hardback $29.95; paperback $14.95; Shipping cost for either: $6.00). Just send an email to zimmerman @ nasw dot org.

NASA admits mismanagement and human errors caused 2025 Goldstone antenna damage

4:53 pm

NASA today released its completed investigation into the November 2025 incident that severely damaged its Goldstone antenna in California when workers allowed the antenna to “over rotate” beyond its acceptable limits, putting it out of commission.

In its final report, the board found the mishap primarily stemmed from software weaknesses, human error, and an undetected failure in the antenna’s hydraulic limit system. Investigators determined an electrical issue at the antenna the previous day caused the control system to misreport the antenna’s rotation state, an issue that went unnoticed and triggered multiple limit-stops during the Juno track on Sept. 16. While working to identify the limit-stop problem, operators performed several troubleshooting steps that inadvertently bypassed software and hardware safeguards, which ultimately led to the over-rotation incident. After flooding in the antenna base was observed, operators attempted to stow the antenna as a safety precaution, however, because the system had already passed the rotation limits, this action drove the antenna further into over‑rotation, causing additional damage.

Additionally, the investigation found the antenna’s hydraulic limit system, its final mechanical safeguard, was inoperable on Sept. 16 after being damaged in an undocumented prior incident. The system also had not been adequately tested for an undetermined period of time.

Investigators also concluded workplace culture pressured operators to work as expeditiously as possible, often stretching beyond their usual roles, expertise, and training, to keep the antenna operating. The board states the cultural conditions observed at Goldstone were not present at the network’s other sites, where roles and responsibilities are followed more consistently. Other contributing factors outlined in the report include inadequate procedures, reliance on undocumented practices and tacit knowledge, and gaps in the antenna’s control logic. [emphasis mine]

You can read that report here [pdf], but be warned that large sections are redacted, apparently in an effort to protect the identities of those responsible.

Nonetheless, it is very clear from the highlighted text above that the management and work situation at Goldstone was a mess, and that the mishap was caused not by faulty engineering but by faulty work practices and bad management. Unfortunately, nowhere in the report is it said that there will be any management changes. This fact might have been redacted, but I suspect not. It is typical of government agencies like NASA after incidents like this to whitewash the investigation, concluding simply that “we should have done better and we now we will!”

The repairs will cost NASA about $4.6 million, and will likely not be completed until 2028.

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June 5, 2025 Quick space links

2:50 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

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Leaving Earth cover

Leaving Earth: Space Stations, Rival Superpowers, and the Quest for Interplanetary Travel, can be purchased as an ebook everywhere for only $3.99 (before discount) at amazon, Barnes & Noble, all ebook vendors, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit.

If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big oppressive tech companies and I get a bigger cut much sooner.

 

Winner of the 2003 Eugene M. Emme Award of the American Astronautical Society.

 
"Leaving Earth is one of the best and certainly the most comprehensive summary of our drive into space that I have ever read. It will be invaluable to future scholars because it will tell them how the next chapter of human history opened." -- Arthur C. Clarke

Musk’s answer when asked, “Why SpaceX going public now?”

11:02 am

In a JP Morgan public interview today about SpaceX’s upcoming initial public offering (IPO), Elon Musk was asked why the company was going public now, and gave a somewhat long-winded answer that included talking about the Sun as a major source of energy in the future, and then concluded very simply, to laughter: “We are embarking on a massive new growth phase and we need capital for that.”

I have embedded his response below. It is worthwhile watching because he does indicate much of what SpaceX wants to do, which not only involves an additional 100,000 communications satellites as well as a constellation of data satellites, it might also include possible solar power generation for use back on Earth. He also notes the company has been self-funding now for almost a decade.
» Read more

26 comments

China completes two more launches

9:55 am

Since yesterday China has successfully completed two launches from two different spaceports using two different types of rockets, with both launches placing more satellites in orbit for its Qiafan (SpaceSail) internet constellation.

First China yesterday placed 18 Qianfan satellites in a polar orbit, its Long March 6B rocket lifting off from its Taiyuan spaceport in northeast China. The state-run press provided no information as to where the rocket’s lower stages (using very toxic hypergolic fuels) crashed.

Next, China today placed another batch Qianfan satellites into orbit, its Long March 8 rocket lifting off from its coastal Wenchang spaceport. Though the state-run press did not specify the number of satellites on this launch, based on past launches the total was likely 18 also.

The constellation presently has roughly 200 Qianfan satellites in orbit, out of a planned constellation of as many as 12,000. The first phase of the constellation however only requires 648, which China hopes to reach before the end of the year.

The leaders in the 2026 launch race:

66 SpaceX
34 China
8 Russia
7 Rocket Lab

For the third straight year SpaceX leads the entire world combined in total launches, 66 to 59.

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Russia will charge about $27 million for future tourist flights

9:26 am

According to Dmitry Bakanov, head of Roscosmos, it will likely charge about two billion rubles, about $27 million, to fly tourists in space in the future.

The cost of a space tourist trip will be approximately 2 billion rubles, Roscosmos CEO Dmitry Bakanov said in an interview with VK Video on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. “It’s still an expensive project. The costs include the rocket divided by the number of participants. There must be two professionals, because they can guide it, so it’s about two billion rubles,” Bakanov noted.

The report of his remarks in Russia’s state-run press is not entirely clear as to whether this number is the price per tourist, the price for the entire flight, or Roscosmos’ cost for the flight, excluding its mark-up. Assuming it is the price for the entire flight, it is about a quarter of what Russia was charging NASA during the last few ferrying trips to ISS before SpaceX’s Dragon capsules became operational. This makes sense, since Russia was milking NASA for as much as it could get during those last flights. Future private tourists won’t have as much money as a spend-thrift government, so Roscosmos is now forced to charge a realistic price.

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Astronomers measure weight of supermassive black hole 10 billion light years away

9:13 am

In a new record for the farthest measurement yet achieved (10 billion light years away), astronomers have now used the Webb Space Telescope obtain a reasonably accurate measurement of the mass of supermassive black hole in the early universe, estimated to be six billion times the mass of our Sun.

The stars orbiting Sag A*
The stars orbiting Sag A* at the center of our own
galaxy, the Milky Way. Click for original image.

The black hole’s mass is about 6 billion times that of the sun, and is being observed at a time when the universe was only about 3 billion years old, about a quarter of its current age, offering unprecedented details into black holes in the early universe.

To find this, the team used data from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope to track the motion of stars orbiting around the otherwise invisible black hole to measure its mass. Though the technique – known as stellar dynamics – has been used to measure dormant black holes in galaxies much closer to Earth, this is the first time it has been used to weigh one located such a great (cosmological) distance away.

For comparison, the Milky Way’s central super-massive black hole, Sagittarius A* (pronounced “A-star”), has been estimated at four million solar masses, using this same technique. The graphic to the right shows the various stars orbiting Sagittarius A* that have been tracked now for several decades in the infrared. As their orbits are refined, astronomers can use those orbits to determine the mass of the central object.

The scientists have now been able to do the same with this galaxy ten billion light years away. These observations however are certainly preliminary, and will be refined in the coming decades as more data is obtained.

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NASA astronauts ordered to shelter in Dragon while Russians repair air leak

8:53 am

For somewhat unclear reasons that seem at first glance to be an over-reaction, NASA officials today ordered all five non-Russian astronauts on ISS to shelter in the Dragon capsule docked there while the two Russian astronauts did repair work on the new air leak in the Zvezda module on the Russian half of the station.

Following new leaks, Roscosmos has elected to proceed with a more extensive repair operation on Friday, June 5. Out of an abundance of caution, NASA has directed all four of the agency’s SpaceX Crew-12 members and NASA astronaut Chris Williams to assume an elevated safety posture in the Dragon spacecraft while the repair is underway.

As it turned out, the Russians only did “measurements” today, no actual repairs, and so NASA then canceled its “shelter in place” order.

This new air leak, first detected in May, has been estimated to be equivalent to the loss of about one pound of air per day, which is relative low compared to the loss rates seen from 2019 through 2025, as shown in the lower right corner of the graphic below, taken from a 2024 inspector general report. In late 2025 the Russians were able to stop those leaks, only to have this new one return last month.
Figure 3 from September Inspector General report
Figure 3 from September 2024 Inspector General report, showing Zvezda’s location on ISS, as well as the station’s leak rate at that time.

Unless the Russians planned some radical repair plan (unlikely), sheltering in Dragon seems overkill. For several years NASA’s policy has been to simply close the hatch between the American and Russian sections of ISS during dockings to Zvezda. It likely also did this during earlier repair work. For the agency to now escalate its safety precautions suggests either the repair work was more risky, or NASA administrator Jared Isaacman wanted to make a political and engineering point that would be noticed by the mainsteam press.

If the latter, Isaacman got what he wanted, as there have been numerous stories today from many mainstream outlets, with some misreporting the story as if the leak was suddenly new and required an emergency evacution (see here, here, here, and here).

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June 4, 2026 Quick space links

2:52 pm

BtB’s stinger Jay reported no links worth posting. Below is one link that reader Nate P. posted in the comments earlier today. This post remains an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

32 comments

Sutherland spaceport in the UK liquidated

2:15 pm

Proposed or active spaceports in north Europe
Proposed or active spaceports in north Europe

After years of fighting bureaucratic red tape, environmental restrictions, and the unending opposition from a local billionaire, the assets of the proposed Sutherland spaceport on the north coast of Scotland are now being liquidated, as part of the liquidation of the bankrupt rocket company Orbex that had originally hoped to launch from this site.

The spokesperson also said: “One of the proposed transactions relates to assets associated with Sutherland Spaceport. As the proposed transaction is structured as an asset sale, a decision has been taken to place Sutherland Spaceport Limited, a Scottish subsidiary of Orbex, into liquidation. “A winding-up petition has therefore been lodged with the court and it is anticipated that the transaction will complete following the appointment of liquidators.”

The administrators “remain hopeful that the disposals will maximise returns for creditors”.

The spokesperson added that the administrators “continue to engage constructively with preferred bidders, secured creditors and other stakeholders, including the UK and Scottish Governments, as the process moves forward.”

Because almost £26 million was invested in this spaceport by the government of the United Kingdom, it is still possible the government itself will buy the assets and attempt to resuscitate the spaceport. If it does, do not count on much actually happening. There is practically no interest in the rocket industry to launch from the UK because of its odious red tape, that has already bankrupted two rocket startups.

Note that the spaceport shown on the map in North Uist is merely a proposal. Almost nothing real has happened so far to establish it. The SaxaVord spaceport hopes the German startup Rocket Factory Augsburg will do its first orbital launch this July, but there is no guarantee, as it appears the company is still awaiting launch approval from the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority, which in its slow-walking of license approvals was a main cause for the bankruptcy of those two rocket companies.

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Martian glacier flowing around a recent small crater impact

12:37 pm

A Martian glacier flowing arond a recent crater impact
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and enhanced to post here, was taken on May 3, 2026 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).

The science team labels this a “crater on debris covered glacier.” The crater, the dark spot in the upper center, is only about 450 feet across. The impact apparently took place onto this glacial slope, and since then the glacier has continued to flow downhill (as indicated by the arrows), flowing around the denser material pounded down by the impact.

The elevation loss within this image is about 300 feet, along a distance of just under two miles. How long it took this glacial material to flow this much however is unknown. Nor is it known when this happened. The orbital data so far of all Martian glaciers suggests they are at this time inactive, neither growing or shrinking.
» Read more

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SpaceX launches 29 more Starlink satellites

11:07 am

SpaceX this morning successfully placed another 29 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral Space Force station in Florida.

The first stage completed its 12th flight (78 days after its previous flight), landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The leaders in the 2026 launch race:

66 SpaceX
32 China
8 Russia
7 Rocket Lab

For the third straight year SpaceX leads the entire world combined in total launches, 66 to 57.

China has two launches scheduled for today, with one supposedly having already taken place. When both are confirmed I will post a new launch update.

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SpaceX’s full IPO, aimed at raising $86 billion

10:30 am

SpaceX logo

SpaceX yesterday filed the full prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for its planned initial public offering (IPO) of stock, revealing a plan to sell 555.6K shares at $135 per share, resulting in a total cash acquisition of just over $75 billion. Additionally, the company’s earlier investors will have separate options to buy other shares, raising about $11 billion more, for a total of $86 billion in capital raised.

The stock offering would set SpaceX’s value at about $1.77 trillion, and would make Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire. This would also be the largest IPO in history. The full prospectus at the link above has a lot of details, which this CNN article distills nicely:

SpaceX plans to sell 555.6 million shares at an initial price of $135 a share, the company said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The decision to dictate one price target, as opposed to offering a range, is a unique move that reflects the hot IPO market around the AI craze and Musk’s own tendency for mega-scale goals.

Musk, who currently owns half of SpaceX, would still control nearly half of the company’s total shares after the offering. However, some of those are special shares with greater voting power, and Musk will control 82.4% of the voting power after the IPO, according to the filing.

The date of this IPO, when stocks will go on sale, is presently set for June 12, 2026. The stock will be traded on Nasdaq, under the label SPCX.

In addition to this $86 billion, SpaceX already earns about $12 billion per year from its more than 10 million Starlink subscribers, and has previously raised more then $12 billion from those initial private investors. All told, the company will have more than $110 billion in cash on hand after this IPO. That is more than four times NASA’s annual budget.

As I have said repeatedly in the past two years, SpaceX is the real American space program. NASA is begin carried along by it.

One detail of interest revealed in some viewgraphs that SpaceX is showing to potential investors is its intention to begin launching commercial payloads on Starship before the end of this year. In other words, expect much more frequent flights in the coming months, moving quickly to orbital tests, placing operational version 3 Starlink satellites in orbit as well as testing refueling in orbit involving two week missions and two Starships.

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AST SpaceMobile: Blue Origin’s launch failures delays our commercial operations until 2027

9:58 am

The satellite company AST SpaceMobile revealed yesterday that it no longer expects to begin commercial operations of its cell-to-satellite constellation by the end of this year, that the recent launch failures by Blue Origin will delay the initiation of that commercial service until the first half of 2027.

William Blair said Scott Wisniewski, AST SpaceMobile’s chief strategy officer, made the estimate June 2 during the bank’s annual growth stock conference in Chicago.

Before the loss of a New Glenn rocket in a static-fire test May 28, AST SpaceMobile had aimed to start early services at the end of 2026 with at least 45 satellites in low Earth orbit, helping anchor customers such as AT&T and Verizon in the United States plug terrestrial service gaps. The Texas-based venture had retained that goal even after the loss of its seventh BlueBird satellite on a New Glenn launch April 19.

The April 19th New Glenn launch failure was the first blow. After this the company said it still hoped to get enough of its Bluebird satellites launched to start service in 2026, as it was negotiating with other rocket companies. The May 28th New Glenn launchpad explosion was the final blow. AST now realizes that even with new launch providers, it can’t get enough satellites in orbit this year.

Blue Origin’s failures here are significant to the entire satellite industry. That industry needs more launch capacity from more providers. Right now, there is a dearth, with only SpaceX capable of launching large payloads frequently. Not only is Blue Origin’s New Glenn grounded, ULA’s new Vulcan rocket is grounded as well. And Arianespace’s Ariane-6 rocket is operational, it is not yet able to launch more than once every two months, and its manifest is already completely filled.

New large rockets by Rocket Lab, Stoke Space, and Relativity are expected to launch before the end of the year, but it will be a while before they will be ready to pick up the slack. And though Blue Origin says it will fly again before the end of 2026, there is great doubt in the industry about this claim. At the moment its recovery operations following the launchpad explosion are slowed as the Space Force assesses the damage to the range.

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Axiom’s latest funding round raised $525 million, not $350 million as expected

9:37 am

Axiom's module assembly sequence
Axiom’s module assembly sequence

The space station startup Axiom today announced that its latest funding round raised $525 million, exceeding significantly the $350 million predicted in February and indicating much greater investor enthusiasm for the company.

The close brought new capital onto Axiom Space’s cap table alongside the investors who anchored the round earlier this year. This positions the company to accelerate execution against its core programs: human spaceflight, spacesuits, and Axiom Station – the commercial successor to the International Space Station.

MUFG Bank, Ltd., Japan’s largest bank, joined the round as a new investor, alongside continued participation from existing backers.

With the $100 million previously raised, the company now has $625 million on hand for development, placing it in a strong financial position. It also shows, as does the large investments for the Vast and Starlab stations, that there is enough investor interest and commitment to build all three stations, even if NASA’s funding doesn’t provide all the necessary funds.

Below are my updated rankings of the five American space stations presently under development:
» Read more

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SETI confirms through extensive radio observations: Comet 3I/Atlas has no alien technology

9:28 am

New Hubble image of 3I/Atlas
Comet 3I/Atlas as seen by Hubble
in November 2025. Click for original.

Hardly a surprise: In order to put an end to the stupid clickbait speculations of some hack scientists, the SETI Institute has just completed seven hours of detailed radio observations of interstellar comet 3I/Atlas, and has confirmed that it has no alien technology and is nothing more than a comet, albeit unusual because it comes from outside our solar system.

The team identified nearly 74 million narrowband signals. After removing human interference and filtering for signals matching 3I/ATLAS’s movement, only about 200 remained for review. All traced back to technology on the surface of the Earth or our own Earth-orbiting satellites.

While no technosignatures were found, the study sets new constraints reinforcing that 3I/ATLAS is a natural object. The observations place upper limits on the power of any radio transmitter on or near 3I/ATLAS, ruling out signals stronger than about 10–110 watts, approximately the power of a household appliance, over the detected frequencies.

In other words, the comet is a comet. This research also demonstrated new astronomical capabilities that can quickly do similar observations when new interstellar objects show up.

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