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Using its Flamingo missiles, the Ukraine last night successfully damaged and possibly destroyed Russia’s factory where it builds the Soyuz-2 rockets, located in the city of Samara about 550 miles northeast of the Ukrainian border.
The image to the right shows the impact point, Building 106A of the the Progress Rocket Space Centre in Samara, which is where the Soyuz-2 and the upgraded not-yet-operational Soyuz-5 rockets are manufactured. Local reports also say Building 106B was damaged, which the company uses to integrate satellites [mostly military] to the rockets for shipment.
It appears this factory is a single-point failure. It is the only one in Russia that manufactures these rockets, used to launch Soyuz manned capsules and Progress freighters to ISS as well as military satellites and Russia’s new Rassvet constellation, aimed at providing it is own Starlink equivalent. If damaged badly, it means Russia’s ability to do any of these things is seriously limited, at least for awhile. It has Soyuz-2 rockets in stock, but only so many. And even if it gets the building rebuilt, the Ukraine has now demonstrated it knows where it is, and has the ability to hit it again.
The Ukraine considers Rassvet a military threat, as it will give Russia’s military high quality communications within the areas it has invaded, comparable (though likely inferior) to Starlink. In this context, the Ukraine has already used drones to threaten Rassvet launches at the Plesetsk spaceport in northwest Russia, forcing Russia to hide launch dates and even delay launches.
This attack illustrates Russia’s increasing vulnerability to Ukrainian drones and missiles, and signals the growing escalation of the war into Russia. Worse, Russia has a limited ability to respond, and either it gets Putin to end the war (very unlikely), removes him from power, or it does what Putin himself has hinted, use nuclear weapons against the Ukraine. The latter action would be incredibly stupid and counter productive, but then, everything about this Russian invasion of the Ukraine has been incredibly stupid and counter productive. We would be foolish to expect better from Putin now.