New poll shows Trump barely winning Utah

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More news on the upcoming November Democratic primary: A new poll in Utah shows Donald Trump getting only 29% of the vote, with Hillary Clinton getting 26%, and Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson getting 16%.

The article correctly notes that Utah has been solidly Republican for decades, until now.

Bear in mind that Utah is a state that Mitt Romney won 73/25 over Barack Obama in 2012, boosted no doubt in part because of Romney’s Mormon faith. Still, John McCain won Utah in 2008 by a 63/34 margin as well. Utah has not been competitive in decades, with the smallest margin in recent times coming in 1996 — a 21-point win by Bob Dole on his way to a national defeat.

It appears that a large percentage of Utah’s conservative voters are choosing Johnson, which might be their only conservative choice, though sadly he might not be much of a conservative or libertarian as he claims From this second link:

When Johnson took the tiller in New Mexico in 1995, the budget stood at $4.397 billion. When he left in 2003, it had grown to $7.721 billion, an increase of 7.29 percent a year. Of the eleven governors who filed to run for president this year (two Democrats, Johnson, and eight Republicans), only one had a worse record on spending growth. In New Mexico, Bill Richardson, Johnson’s Democratic successor, clocked in a little better than he did, but Richardson’s successor, Susana Martinez, has shown what a fiscal conservative looks like: New Mexico currently spends less than it did when she took office. It’s not just at a state level that being more fiscally conservative than Johnson is a bipartisan achievement. Federal spending during the time Johnson was in office grew at an average annual rate of 4.49 percent. Late Clinton and early Bush weren’t as successful in their efforts to fight spending cuts as they might have been, but Johnson makes them look like Coolidge, and federal spending since then has grown at an average annual rate of 4.56 percent.

One piece of good news from the poll in the first article above. It shows down ticket Republicans doing very well, despite the poor support for the party’s presidential candidate. And that really is what is most important at this point. It is essential the public vote in as many conservatives as possible to force whomever is President to move in a conservative direction. As Milton Friedman so wisely noted,

I do not believe that the solution to our problem is simply to elect the right people. The important thing is to establish a political climate of opinion which will make it politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing.



  • Cotour

    As long as he beats her.

    Right now I would guess that its a 50/50 call, with the third party, the Libertarian, who agrees with 73% of what Bernie Sanders says. I guess he does not understand the difference between classical liberal and leftist (?), pulling the highest numbers ever. With the release of the FBI report and recommendation which may push Trumps numbers slightly in his favor, to 44?, 45%?

    This is going to be the most insane and contentious election in modern history, an indication of how the two establishment party’s have outraged their base by disregarding them and casting them aside.

  • “As long as he beats her.”

    Edward is right, you are living in a dream world. If Trump can barely beat Hillary Clinton in Utah of all places, how can anyone realistically expect him to beat her elsewhere? You can’t, which is what has been obvious for months. Trump might be the perfect foil for outraged voters to get that anger off their chest, but he is a very poor candidate to pick for the national election. Very poor.

  • Cotour

    Dream world? Me?

    And I quote: ” She is a weak candidate, I want her to be the Democrat candidate” R. Zimmerman. I never said he was a strong candidate, but I recognized and understood that he would eliminate his same party adversaries and that he would be the candidate.

    I do not know why you all have your nuts in a twist in regards to my read of this election. All I am doing is honestly calling it as I see it. I have been accurate, YOU (and Edward) have not. If that is how you define “dream world” then yeah, I am in a dream world and you (and Edward) are Nostradamus’s.

    Like I said, as long as he wins.

  • Cotour

    I wonder how you (Zman) interpret Utah?

    You are making a determination about this overall election based on Utah? The state has a population of 3 million, they in general are religious and tend to be more conservative and you have determined that this indicates that Trump can not prevail overall. And still he polls higher than her anyway, not by a lot, but his numbers are higher.

    Trump’s path to winning is not based just on the votes of the bulk of the conservative minded in the country, he may win by mixing a broad swath of all persuasions, more flexible / reasonable conservatives who can not stand the thought of the term Madame president, specifically Hillary (like me), independents, outraged Democrats, outraged Republicans, outraged Bernie supporters, disillusioned, outraged and pissed off blacks, women, Spanish etc, etc. There will be nothing “normal” about this election.

    Your over interpretation of the importance of Utah (less than 1 percent of the overall population?) in the larger scheme of things IMO is not accurate. You appear to want to interpret things according to YOUR standard preferred criteria, that is not happening in 2016.

    PS: This is not an endorsement of Trump, this is an interpretation of the facts and the general political feeling in the country as I see it.

  • Edward

    You may not be endorsing Trump, but you did vote for him in your state’s primary election — over other candidates that favor policies that were closer to your own views (or what you want us to believe are your views).

    If Trump has such a hard time winning-over Republicans in a heavily Republican state, then which state(s) can he count on for electors in the general election? Mr. Zimmerman’s point seems to be that Republicans are rejecting Trump and his policies, overall, in large numbers.

    It seems that the path to the White House, that you have been advocating, does not go to the White House after all. It does not take Nostradamus to see that.

    Please enlighten us as to where we have been inaccurate. Is it in the words that Trump actually uses to advocate his tyranny? No. Is it in the polling? No. It must be somewhere, though, because you would not falsely accuse us of being inaccurate, would you?

    I suspect that your interpretation of the facts and your interpretation of the general political feeling in the country may be wanting. (BTW: accurate statement, as I *do* suspect this.)

  • steve mackelprang

    The only reason that many of my fellow Utahns are hesitant about Trump at this point is because Romney is seen as a savior… he pulled the Olympics out of the fire way back when, and he currently has some sort of residence here. When push comes to shove, Utah will vote Trump and overwhelmingly. I have thought Trump would prevail from the start, the average person is so sick of the cuckservative establishment ( in which Romney is a major player) that I’m somewhat surprised it has taken this long for Utah to come around.

  • Cotour

    I have never been able to figure out what BTW meant.

  • “cuckservative”

    Please don’t use this term. It borders on name calling, and has offensive connotations that I would like to avoid on my website. What you wrote would actually have been more persuasive without it.

  • It means “By the way”, but I would agree with you. I hate it when people use these shorthand abbreviations, and try (but don’t always succeed) in avoiding them. Type out your words. Speak English. Articulate!

  • D K Rögnvald Williams

    I’m writing in Robert Zimmerman for President.

  • steve mackelprang

    Hmm,, odd you find the term so offensive when according to Amazon the book by that title is rated # 16 in books-politics and social science… and # 17 in the Kindle store.. ebooks nonfiction.

    It’s your website, I will of course refrain.

    BTW,,, I wasn’t trying to be persuasive, I was merely expressing my opinion as to the average perception in Utah concerning Mr. Trump.

  • “odd you find the term so offensive when according to Amazon the book by that title is rated # 16 in books-politics and social science… and # 17 in the Kindle store.. ebooks nonfiction.”

    What do I care if the book the term comes from is popular? Popularity doesn’t make it civilized or dignified or respectful. Moreover, just because the society I now live in has decided that crude behavior and rude name-calling passes for reasonable debate does not mean I have to accept that concept. I try to go by a higher standard.

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